Wednesday, November 5, 2008
2008 VRC Oaks
VRC Oaks Preview
The third day of the Flemington Spring carnival welcomes all those from the fairer sex with open arms. On the 9 race program no less than 4 are dedicated to fillies and/or mares, there will be fashions on the field, women strutting their stuff across Flemington with gay abandon. Yes, it truly is ladies day.
The Oaks itself brings together 17 3yo fillies, well almost all are actually 3 years old, some won't physically turn 3 for another week or two. They race against each other over 2500m, the distance over which the VRC Derby was run on Saturday, and all are running over that distance for the first time in their lives. Not one has been over a journey any further than 2000m in their short careers, thus they are all jumping at least 500m in their endeavours to the coveted Group 1. Of the 17 acceptors, 5 have never even won one race before, they are maidens, trying to win a Group 1 event. On top of that, there are another 6 fillies who have only won one lifetime race. This is not exceptional, it happens every year, with fillies attempting to win that pinnacle black type so important to breeders, despite the fact they are too young, too inexperienced, and some simply not good enough to ever win at the elite level. Media moguls then become extremely excited every time a former Oaks winner steps out on to the race track, believing their achievements as a 3yo filly takes them to status far above mortal equines. This, it rarely if ever does.
In the 2008 version of the Oaks, we again see an odds on favourite in the shape of the Kris Lees trained Samantha Miss. Now Samantha is no ordinary 3yo filly. She has had 10 starts before her Oaks assignment, winning 6 including two Group 1 events, one against the boys in the Champagne Stakes at Randwick back in April. She has also run 3 placings, including a tremendous effort last start in the Group 1 WFA W S Cox Plate over 2040m at Moonee Valley, beaten only 1.2 lengths by Maldivian. So our girl Samantha is entitled to be around the $1.80 mark for the Oaks, as none of her rivals can boast more than two race victories, let alone two at the highest level. And which of her rivals could we even consider in our wildest dreams could possibly secure a position in the field, let alone run a place as a 3yo filly in a Cox Plate? None, exactly. Samantha Miss deserves favouritism.
Nevertheless, there is always the uncertainty of racing. She is well drawn in barrier 3, regular jockey Hugh Bowman will ride, a welcome return after he could not make the weight in the Cox Plate. He will give her the run of the race in behind the speed, bring her clear in the straight to allow her to let down her devastating final finish. But will she run out the 2500m? She has now had 5 runs in from a spell, including that gut buster at Moonee Valley when everyone thought on the home turn she was just going to unleash and blouse them all. She petered on her run that day, almost losing third place to Zarita. Has she had enough? We will only be able to answer these questions at around 3:05pm Melbourne time. If she runs the 2500m, she still has her zest for racing, and class prevails, she will win, like many other top class 3yo fillies before her. Nevertheless, we won't be taking any tomato sauce odds on offer to find out if the moon and young Samantha are in sync when the Oaks field jumps away.
There should be plenty of pace in the race, Estee has led at her latest two runs, most recently on Saturday in the Wakeful, the traditional lead up to the Oaks, and on both occasions she has fought on tenaciously, with all due respect to the leader biased tracks on which she was running. Roobles & Lunar Lights will also go forward, and with so many racing over the 2500m for the first time, there are sure to be another one or two who pull hard and have to to allowed to run toward the lead. So there will be plenty of pace on, which should suit Samantha Miss. However, this will also suit a few others who will obtain nice runs in the race as well. Miss Scarlatti has unfortunately drawn very badly, and will have to go back from the alley, if she goes forward, that would be tantamount to suicide, however a fast pace will suit and she will be running on at the finish. If she can keep in touch as the field approaches the turn, then will figure in the finish.
Okay, hands up all who saw the run of Kimillsy on Saturday in the Wakeful? You are all very clever cherubs, aren't you. Yes, it was a run to take note of, to write down in that little black book you hide from all others, or even simply make a mental note of and keep repeating to yourself, "back her next time, back her next time." Kimillsy had been a little one paced at her previous two runs, behind Samantha Miss & Gallica, however she rocketed to the line in the Wakeful, and if she repeats that run in the Oaks, she will nearly win.
The Oaks is a race lacking plenty of depth, and whichever filly gets the best run in transit, and then is able to run a strong 2500m, that is the filly who will win. Which filly that will be, we won't know until after the race. There are only a handful of winning chances, however we cannot encourage any one to take odds on about any horse at their first attempt at 2500m. If you insist on betting, take exotics around Samantha Miss, Kimillsy, Estee & Miss Scarlatti. If you insist on having a win bet, then the odds offered about Kimillsy are far more attractive than those being offered for Samantha Miss.
Remember the winning odds for all the Group 1 races so far at Flemington this Spring. Then understand, there are a couple of far better bets on the program, than guessing whether an inexperienced 3yo filly can run out a strong 2500m at their first attempt.
Good luck and profitable punting to all
Spring 2008 - The Year Of The Long Shots
No matter what happens on Oaks day tomorrow at Flemington, or the final day of the 2008 spring carnival on Saturday, this year will have to be remembered as the year punters were sent packing without even the shirt on their backs. The win of Viewed yesterday in the Melbourne Cup at odds of over $40 on all Australian totes, has capped off a spring carnival that will have most punters shaking their heads as to how they are supposed to find these winners. It has been a spring for despised outsiders, winning almost every Group 1 race on offer, with the exception of the Caulfield Guineas some 3 weeks ago.
Let's have a look at the winners of the major races thus far:-
Caulfield Cup - All The Good $41 SP
W S Cox Plate - Maldivian $12 SP
VRC Derby - Rebel Raider $101 SP
Melbourne Cup - Viewed $41 SP
Now, I suppose Maldivian was not what you would call a monstrous outsider winning the Cox Plate. Nevertheless, he was not in the first 5 favourites on the day and started $12 in a field of 12, after a dismal performance in the Caulfield Cup the week prior. What he did Cox Plate day was a form reversal of decent proportions, it must be said.
All The Good was a last start winner at Newmarket by over 3 lengths, so maybe he simply got under Australian punters guard. However Rebel Raider ran a meek 3rd in the Geelong Classic, a race rarely proving a strong form line for the Derby. In fact Rebel Raider was beaten over 3 lengths at Geelong, and was correctly sent out at 100/1 in the Derby. Viewed had had 4 runs back following his Brisbane Cup win on a bog track back in June, beaten soundly at every one of those runs this spring. Certainly, Viewed, Rebel Raider & Maldivian all put in form reversals that fooled most punters on the day. So, punters rightly or as it turned out wrongly, ignored all four of these Group 1 winners. If we go back to the time honoured Turnbull Stakes a month ago, where Weekend Hussler was sent out a long odds on favourite, he duely missed a place, the rot for punters starting way back in early October.
The Caulfield Guineas has turned out to be one of the only major races where form lines stood up and punters got it right, when the Mark Kavanagh trained Whobegotyou was victorious at $1.60, not the most succulent of odds for which punters search. Nevertheless, a winner is a winner this spring and Whobegotyou is almost the only horse to put some money back into punters pockets. Northern Meteor, admittedly started very short priced favourite in the Group 1 Coolmore on Saturday, however it must be said this is not one of the big 6 or 7 races of the spring.
So, why have the majority of the favourites been failing? Why are these long priced horses consistently winning throughout the spring of 2008?
There are several reasons for this. Firstly, most of these beaten favourites have been well under the odds, and most have actually been false favourites. The strength & depth of Australian horses, especially at the top level has evened out so much over the past few years, it doesn't take much to go wrong for the favourite's chances to go awry in a race. Favourites require everything to go their way, as do every other horse in the race for that matter to win the race. Being used up early, sitting a little wide without any cover, taking off too early, horses placed in unsuitable races over unsuitable distances all of these issues will accumulate to get a favourite or any other horse beaten. Horses who win these top class races, generally have everything go their way, receiving a nice easy run with cover, getting clear at the right time, not being used up early, and of course being placed by the trainer in the right race over the right distance. Media hype plays a massive part in making horses false favourites, as we saw with Weekend Hussler & Whobegotyou. Weekend Hussler was a sprinter miler attempting to win staying races in a year that most thought the WFA ranks were down in class. He simply didn't stay. Whobegotyou was jumping 500m in distance in attempting to win the Derby, a fact clearly forgotten by punters carried away with the media hype surrounding the horses chances. At least the winner Rebel Raider only jumped 300m from the Geelong run to the Derby. As for the Melbourne Cup, I don't know how many times I watched a replay of Septimus winning in Ireland at his most recent start before the Cup, winning by a massive 13 lengths. Alas, what every pundit forgot to mention to punters was this victory was on a bog track, and Septimus would be racing on a hard surface come Cup day. And how many times did we see a replay of Mad Rush's excellent 4th in the Caulfield Cup, pundits drooling over it as a great guide to his chances in the Melbourne Cup. What pundits did not tell punters, was that Mad Rush had never won a race beyond 2400m, his best distance, the distance of the Caulfield Cup not the Melbourne Cup, and was a massive query over the 3200m yesterday. The media has plenty to answer for in assisting to make these horses short priced false favourites. If the media is going to push horses, then they should give out all the facts, not just the one's that suit them to make a story.
The other major issue is track bias, which is an alley that Racing Victoria forbid most journalists covering the carnival to walk down. Caulfield over its 3 day carnival in October was a disgrace, with few or no horses making up ground in any race. The committee moved the rain around on all 3 days in an attempt to lure punters into the belief the track was playing fairly, and with the assistance of the media, most punters were duped. Fact is, other than a handful of events, front runners on the fence were advantaged, alas, nothing changed when we arrived at Flemington last Saturday. The only races where horses seem to be able to make ground at Flemington this year is in long distance races. The 1400m & 1600m races around the circuit, horses simply have to be in the first 2 or 3 to have any winning hope, and the straight races are the same.
Another issue is that punters are all becoming sheep. They follow media hype, they look for the obvious form lines because they are what most of the racing media tend to focus on. In yesterday's Melbourne up for example, plenty of media wanted to spruik Bart Cummings chances of winning a 12th Cup. However they focussed on Saturday's Saab winner Moatize, not the Brisbane Cup winner Viewed. Thus, Viewed went out at $41 (gross overs), Moatize $12 (gross unders), and we all know the result. Punters listen to the radio, to the racing stations on television, and follow what is fed to them. They look at form guides in the same way every time they pick one up, not just one punter, but the majority of punters. Therefore, some horses who should be $2.50 in the market come up as $1.50 chances, way under the odds. There was a glaring example of this in the last at Flemington yesterday with favourite Daintree Duke. His true price was around the $2.75 mark, however he had been odds on with bookmakers since acceptances came out on Saturday evening. Why? Because of the massive media hype surrounding him. In the end, he was beaten, albeit unluckily, by Danzylum who sat close to the pace all the way and held on strongly to the finish.
So what will happen in the Oaks tomorrow? How many punters will keenly jump on odds on favourite Samantha Miss after her great 3rd in the W S Cox Plate for tomorrow 3yo fillies classic? Going by what has transpired thus far this spring, plenty will, and once again they will get burnt. Samantha Miss is the class horse of the race, however, like Whobegotyou on Saturday, is jumping 500m from the Plate to the Oaks, and we know what happened to Whobegotyou at his short quote. She is long odds on, and terrible value for any punter to consider backing. Punters have to get smarter, either look for value, or simply don't have a bet. What, I hear you cry! Don't have a bet! Yes, show some discipline, either look for one over the odds, or wait for another race. Don't listen to media hype, especially when 3 or 4 different outlets spruik the same horse, it will be under the odds. Leave it alone, wait for it to fail under the pressure of such support, then jump on at subsequent starts when the odds are right.
The final group 1 of the carnival is run on Saturday over the 1600m at Flemington, however we won't see an odds on pop in that race. So punters should get good value for their money in the race. Nevertheless, the media will hype up one or two who are sure to be well in the market come jump time, as well as being way under their true odds. So punters beware.
The media is a most important factor in the racing industry. It simply would not survive the way it is without the media. However, all facets of the media must take their jobs far more seriously than they do now. All they look for is a story, and when several all jump on the one horse it comes up way under the odds, and generally gets beaten. The media always try to make a hero, a so called champion. Unfortunately they did this with Weekend Hussler & Whobegotyou, as there were no other horses consistently winning this spring. We should all allow the horses to make their own stories, allow the horses on track performances to influence our judgement, maybe then, punters will get back on the right track.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Monday, November 3, 2008
2008 Melbourne Cup
Melbourne Cup day is upon us. Let's hope everyone has an enjoyable and successful day tomorrow. Our thoughts as follows:-
1. Septimus - Comes to Australia with a big reputation and a couple of massive winning margins next to his name, albeit on rain affected surfaces. He is without doubt the class horse of the field, however does have the impost of 58.5kg to carry because of that. The major issue with him other than a dry track is whether he has travelled well, settled in & acclimatised well and eaten up since his arrival. If he has, and there is some rain in Melbourne he will be very hard to beat. Johnny Murtagh is a concern as he has no experience under Australian conditions, there will be plenty of pace on in the Cup and he won't be able to afford the luxury of a wide trip with Septimus. Too many ofs and buts with him, however given his favoured wet track conditions, he would nearly win.
2. Master O'Reilly - Our old favourite who fronts up again this year after what must be said a dismal failure last year. He appeared not to run the trip last year, however his preparation this time has been completely different and his runs at WFA have been very good, especially in the Turnbull here at Flemington. His run in the Caulfield Cup was outstanding, however it must be remembered the 2400m at Caulfield is his pet track & distance winning twice and finishing second twice there in a 5 start career. Last start he got caught at the rear in the Cox Plate off a very slow speed, so the run can be overlooked. In saying that, Princess Coup finished back with him that day and she showed nothing in the MacKinnon on Saturday. He will get a great run from the barrier, so given he will do no work in the run, Vlad Duric should have the opportunity to bring him down the outside with one last crack at the leaders in the straight. On his best, a good each way chance, if he runs like last year, no chance at all.
3. Honolulu - From the same stable as the top weight Septimus & does have acceptable credentials on firm going. However, when he has struck a good track, his form does fall away which is an important factor. The two biggest issues for him will be the barrier (24) combined with the inexperienced jockey Colm O'Donohue who has never ridden here in Australia. The pace of Australian races are completely different to European races, and if O'Donohue does get caught wide in the run, then his race is all but over. We have wondered if trainer Aiden O'Brien actually considers him a winning chance, or if he has brought him over as a pacemaker for Septimus, regrettably, we won't know this until the field has gone 250m. On his best form, he has a chance, however again, not knowing if he has travelled well and settled in is a major concern. Each way hope only, maybe include in exotics, however the stablemate does look a far better proposition.
4. Cest La Guerre - New Zealand Derby winner earlier this year, who was purchased by an Australian syndicate including Lloyd Williams, Simon O'Donnell & John Singleton. At least trainer John Sadler won't have any troubles being paid his monthly bill with names like those in the ownership. Cest La Guerre's best form is on rain affected tracks, he won the Derby on a heavy surface, he simply hasn't recaptured that sort of form since his arrival in Australia. If the track becomes rain affected, then he is in the race up to his ears of he can run the 3200m out strongly. However, on a dry surface, he is an each way hope at best.
5. Nom Du Jeu - AJC Derby runner up back in April, who has really improved since his arrival in Australia this time. His run in the Caulfield Cup from the outside barrier was nothing short of sensational, arguably the best run on the day, and the Caulfield Cup has always been considered the best guide to a runners chances in the Melbourne Cup. If he reproduces that run, he is in this race right up to his ears. His sire Montjeu only throws stayers and his mum, Prized Gem, won a Brisbane Cup for trainer Murray Baker a few years back, so the 3200m should be perfect for him. He has performed on rain affected going if the rains come, is perfectly drawn in barrier 1 to get a good smother, and will be well ridden by ex patriot South African Jeff Lloyd. Plenty to like about Nom Du Jeu, he has an excellent winning chance and must be included in all forms of betting on the race.
6. Yellowstone - When I first glanced at this 5yo entire's form and saw 54.1 next to his name, I thought that was the weight he carried at his most recent start. Alas, it was actually the margin by which Septimus defeated him. Now, despite the track being heavy that day, despite the fact he drops a massive 8kg on that WFA performance, along with the jockey being far too inexperienced in Australian conditions plus we have no idea whether he has travelled and acclimatised, barrier 12 means he will need plenty of luck in running, etc etc etc. No, leave him out.
7. Zipping - Seems to have been around the top for years this 7yo gelding, however on his day, is as good as the local horses can produce for this race. His run in the Turnbull Stakes was excellent, his subsequent run in the Cox Plate coming from a long way back and circling the field was also outstanding. If he can produce a run equivalent to either of those, then he has a realistic winning chance. Regrettably, there are a couple of him, so we have to take him on trust. 7yos have an absolutely woeful record in the Melbourne Cup, he ahs drawn barrier 16, which although it sounds ordinary, that will probably suit him so he can back with cover and run home late. If the real Zipping attends Flemington tomorrow, then he will run a great race. Each way, place, exotic chance only.
8. Mad Rush - Those who saw this English stayer's Caulfield Cup run, were in a mad rush to get on him in the big one. Damian Oliver has a terrific record in the Melbourne Cup, rides Flemington like he was planted there as a youngster instead of a tuft of grass and from barrier 4, one can only see the 5yo entire obtaining the gun run of the race. There are a couple of queries about, especially distance wise compared to the other European horses, as he has not won past 2380m. He has not won on rain affected going, plus he has only won 2 races. How many local Class 2 horses would we ever see line up in a Melbourne Cup? Very few is the answer to that question. So he has to be at his impeccable peak for tomorrow's affair. Can he win? Yes, he is one of the top overseas chances, as long as he can run out the 3200m strongly enough. Definite winning hope, must include in all forms of exotic bets.
9. Ice Chariot - It is commendable indeed that Kevin O'Brien has a runner in the 2008 version of the Cup. As an owner he is terrific for racing, a most likable bloke & enjoys every minute he spends on a race track. There should be more Kevin and Tanith O'Briens in this world. Alas, Ice Chariot would have to start 30 seconds before the rest of the field to have any winning hope. Admittedly, he has qualified, as a Derby winner, however his form is simply not good enough to beat most of his opponents tomorrow. No.
10. Viewed - Bart Cummings is the Cups King, he trains this 5yo entire, and always has his horses cherry ripe for Cup day. Nevertheless, what in goodness's name is this bloke doing in the field? He has shown no form whatsoever this preparation, after winning the 2400m Brisbane Cup in June, on a bog track with an over exaggerated winning margin. Comfortably held at each of his 4 runs this time, he would have to improve dramatically to figure in the finish of this race, or even the Lavazza Long Black run a couple of hours earlier tomorrow. No.
11. Littorio - Following his Turnbull Stakes win a month ago at Flemington, this 4yo gelding firmed dramatically in markets for both big Cups. And so he should have, the win was brilliant coming from a long way back in the field to win comfortably by a length. Unfortunately, his two subsequent runs have been most disappointing, culminating in what has to be said a shocker on Saturday in the Mackinnon. Blinkers go off tomorrow, however this will only relax him more and force him to settle nearer last, and he simply hasn't shown the dash over the longer distances for us to become excited about his chances. Littorio is one we are happy to risk and not include in any form of betting.
12. Bauer - This 6yo entire has followed in the footsteps of 2002 Cup victor Media Puzzle by winning the Geelong Cup to qualify for tomorrow's race. He sat wide that day, albeit with cover, and held his opponents safely in the run to the line. A better run in the race that day was put in by Light Vision who subsequently ran a magnificent second in the Saab on Saturday, being run down in the last bound by Moatize. Light Vision should have beaten Bauer that day, he wills struggle to win the Melbourne Cup. Not to mention the fact that Damian Oliver who rode Bauer to victory at Geelong, is riding Mad Rush in the Cup. No, we can safely rule out Bauer as a wining hope, and an exotic chance as well.
13. Boundless - We all love Steven & Trevor McKee for their feats with Sunline, who will ever forget her. Steven kindly autographed a photo of Sunline for us at Royal Randwick one day, a nicer bloke you could not meet. And he has indeed qualified this 4yo mare for the Melbourne Cup and she is entitled to have her opportunity. The fact is her form is woeful, she has no winning hope, nor even a remote place chance unless she puts a form reversal of dynamic proportions, and half the field breaks down, and we don't wish that upon any horse in the race. No.
14. Gallopin - Big things were expected of this 5yogelding this spring, however he ahs taken some time to warm to his task. Last start he won the Moonee Valley Cup over 2600m, unfortunately for Gallopin, form out of this race almost never stands up in the Melbourne Cup. Prior to that, he beaten easily by Newport in the Metropolitan handicap at Randwick, the form of this race is also not what it used to be. It is very difficult to see him figuring any where near the place getters tomorrow. No.
15. Guyno - This 5yo gelding calls Western Australia his home and indeed ti is terrific to see a representative from Sandgroper territory. Nevertheless, with all due respect to owners & trainers, what is he doing in the field. The only purpose he will serve is to get in the way of serious winning chances. No.
16. Zarita - Duel Oaks winning filly last season against inferior opposition who has taken time to reach her peak for this. From barrier 1 last start in the Cox Plate, she ran an even race to finish 4th only beaten a length and a half. She will have to get a perfect trail from barrier 7 to be any chance tomorrow, left for one last run at the leaders, however she couldn't finish off at Moonee Valley, doubt she can finish off any better in the Cup. Happy to leave her out.
17. Newport - It was not long ago that Metropolitan Handicap winners were all hailed as serious winning chances in the Melbourne Cup. In fact, Newport not only won the Metrop this year, he also annexed the 2400m Brisbane Cup last year, so he has creditable form to recommend him. The issue with him is whether he can run out the strong 3200m required to be victorious on Cup day, which I suppose is a genuine query about most runners tomorrow. Newport is trained by the very astute Paul Perry, who always comes to Melbourne in the spring with serious winning chances only. Newport has a bolters hope in this years Cup, especially if some of the overseas horses are not on their metal. Include in all exotics, definite place hope.
18. Profound Beauty - Following his victory with Vintage Crop in 1993, Dermot Weld has made his life's ambition to win every version of the Melbourne Cup. He succeeded in 2002 with Media Puzzle, and he returns every year with another contender, a 5yo mare of all things. There has been a bit of money in the past few days to say she can run a good race however, her last start 3rd at Leopardstown tells us she will struggle in the Cup. The two horses who beat her on the heavy track that day, were beaten pointlessly by Septimus at their previous outing. Yes, she does drop a massive 7.5kg tomorrow, nevertheless she will have to improve, or Septimus retard for her to be a winning chance. Happy to leave her out completely as mares (with one obvious exception in Makybe Diva) have dreadful records in the Melbourne Cup, also plenty of other queries about her including her Danehill breeding and ability to get the journey strongly. No.
19. Red Lord - Have to be blunt here, he is very fortunate to even be in the field. His form is simply not good enough to win a Melbourne Cup, or even threaten to run a place. Easy fold, leave him out, he should be there tomorrow.
20. Varevees - Why did the owners spend their money bringing a 6yo mare to Australia? Party time, maybe, that can be the only answer, unless of course the VRC foots the bill. Her form is woeful against less thans erious opposition, she has drawn 23, the only positive for her is jockey Craig WIlliams, and not even his magic can get her home in the first 15. No.
21. Prize Lady - Again, we have to be blunt, why is this 7yo mare even in the race? She has been beaten over 16 lengths cumulatively at her last 3 runs in far inferior grade to what she meets tomorrow. No.
22. Allesandro Volta - 4yo entire who should have a name change to Absolute Bolter. Beaten no less than 35 lengths at his last run, over 15 lengths cumulatively at his previous two runs, again, why is he here? Maybe as a pacemaker, don't know, don't care, cannot win, cannot place. No.
23. Barbaricus - Twelve days ago when we wrote the Caulfield Cup preview, we said this bloke should not be in the field. How wrong we were. He ran the race of his life at Caulfield, sitting wide early, going to the lead, then fighting on like a cut snake in the straight to run a magnificent 3rd. He then came out on Saturday in the WFA MAckinnon Stakes, jumping a massive 6.5kg again shoots away with a good break only to be run down in the last stride by Thesio. He drops 8kg on that run, he is in the Cup as much as any other horse in the race. Stephen Baster will give the gun run from barrier 3, he will be in front at the 200m mark, only time will tell if he can hang on. Serious winning chance, definite place chance, include in all exotics.
24. Moatize - 8 weeks ago, this 4yo was a maiden, a horse who had not won a race. Going into the Cup tomorrow, he can only boast two victories, the most recent in the Saab on Saturday which secured his place in the field. He is trained by Bart Cummings so has to be respected. However he received 4kg from Light Vision on Saturday, was only able to run him down in the final bound, prior to that he was beaten well by Bauer at Geelong who sat wide the whole way. Never doubt Bart's magic when it comes to the Melbourne Cup, however we cannot have Moatize in any way shape or form.
How will the race be run? As always, plenty of pace, horses coming over from the outside barriers trying to obtain a good position will make for a fast pace. Even if this doesn't occur, some horses will pull hard off a slow speed and jockeys will be forced to take them toward the lead. As always, whoever obtains the easiest run in transit, with cover, without doing any hard work, and then gains clear running in the early part of the straight will win. As long as they are able to run out the 3200m strongly.
The serious winning chances are Nom Du Jeu, Barbaricus, Septimus, MadRush, Zipping & Master O'Reilly. Definite place & exotic chances to Cest La Guerre, Honolulu, & Newport.
Dry track selections:-
1 Nom De Jeu 2 Barabaricus 3 Septimus 4 Zipping
Rain affected track selections:-
1 Nom De Jue 2 Septimus 3 Cest La Guerre 4 Newport
Best of luck to everyone punting on the Cup tomorrow. Always remember, a horse in the market (under $20) will win, and there will always be a long shot (over $33) run a place.
1. Septimus - Comes to Australia with a big reputation and a couple of massive winning margins next to his name, albeit on rain affected surfaces. He is without doubt the class horse of the field, however does have the impost of 58.5kg to carry because of that. The major issue with him other than a dry track is whether he has travelled well, settled in & acclimatised well and eaten up since his arrival. If he has, and there is some rain in Melbourne he will be very hard to beat. Johnny Murtagh is a concern as he has no experience under Australian conditions, there will be plenty of pace on in the Cup and he won't be able to afford the luxury of a wide trip with Septimus. Too many ofs and buts with him, however given his favoured wet track conditions, he would nearly win.
2. Master O'Reilly - Our old favourite who fronts up again this year after what must be said a dismal failure last year. He appeared not to run the trip last year, however his preparation this time has been completely different and his runs at WFA have been very good, especially in the Turnbull here at Flemington. His run in the Caulfield Cup was outstanding, however it must be remembered the 2400m at Caulfield is his pet track & distance winning twice and finishing second twice there in a 5 start career. Last start he got caught at the rear in the Cox Plate off a very slow speed, so the run can be overlooked. In saying that, Princess Coup finished back with him that day and she showed nothing in the MacKinnon on Saturday. He will get a great run from the barrier, so given he will do no work in the run, Vlad Duric should have the opportunity to bring him down the outside with one last crack at the leaders in the straight. On his best, a good each way chance, if he runs like last year, no chance at all.
3. Honolulu - From the same stable as the top weight Septimus & does have acceptable credentials on firm going. However, when he has struck a good track, his form does fall away which is an important factor. The two biggest issues for him will be the barrier (24) combined with the inexperienced jockey Colm O'Donohue who has never ridden here in Australia. The pace of Australian races are completely different to European races, and if O'Donohue does get caught wide in the run, then his race is all but over. We have wondered if trainer Aiden O'Brien actually considers him a winning chance, or if he has brought him over as a pacemaker for Septimus, regrettably, we won't know this until the field has gone 250m. On his best form, he has a chance, however again, not knowing if he has travelled well and settled in is a major concern. Each way hope only, maybe include in exotics, however the stablemate does look a far better proposition.
4. Cest La Guerre - New Zealand Derby winner earlier this year, who was purchased by an Australian syndicate including Lloyd Williams, Simon O'Donnell & John Singleton. At least trainer John Sadler won't have any troubles being paid his monthly bill with names like those in the ownership. Cest La Guerre's best form is on rain affected tracks, he won the Derby on a heavy surface, he simply hasn't recaptured that sort of form since his arrival in Australia. If the track becomes rain affected, then he is in the race up to his ears of he can run the 3200m out strongly. However, on a dry surface, he is an each way hope at best.
5. Nom Du Jeu - AJC Derby runner up back in April, who has really improved since his arrival in Australia this time. His run in the Caulfield Cup from the outside barrier was nothing short of sensational, arguably the best run on the day, and the Caulfield Cup has always been considered the best guide to a runners chances in the Melbourne Cup. If he reproduces that run, he is in this race right up to his ears. His sire Montjeu only throws stayers and his mum, Prized Gem, won a Brisbane Cup for trainer Murray Baker a few years back, so the 3200m should be perfect for him. He has performed on rain affected going if the rains come, is perfectly drawn in barrier 1 to get a good smother, and will be well ridden by ex patriot South African Jeff Lloyd. Plenty to like about Nom Du Jeu, he has an excellent winning chance and must be included in all forms of betting on the race.
6. Yellowstone - When I first glanced at this 5yo entire's form and saw 54.1 next to his name, I thought that was the weight he carried at his most recent start. Alas, it was actually the margin by which Septimus defeated him. Now, despite the track being heavy that day, despite the fact he drops a massive 8kg on that WFA performance, along with the jockey being far too inexperienced in Australian conditions plus we have no idea whether he has travelled and acclimatised, barrier 12 means he will need plenty of luck in running, etc etc etc. No, leave him out.
7. Zipping - Seems to have been around the top for years this 7yo gelding, however on his day, is as good as the local horses can produce for this race. His run in the Turnbull Stakes was excellent, his subsequent run in the Cox Plate coming from a long way back and circling the field was also outstanding. If he can produce a run equivalent to either of those, then he has a realistic winning chance. Regrettably, there are a couple of him, so we have to take him on trust. 7yos have an absolutely woeful record in the Melbourne Cup, he ahs drawn barrier 16, which although it sounds ordinary, that will probably suit him so he can back with cover and run home late. If the real Zipping attends Flemington tomorrow, then he will run a great race. Each way, place, exotic chance only.
8. Mad Rush - Those who saw this English stayer's Caulfield Cup run, were in a mad rush to get on him in the big one. Damian Oliver has a terrific record in the Melbourne Cup, rides Flemington like he was planted there as a youngster instead of a tuft of grass and from barrier 4, one can only see the 5yo entire obtaining the gun run of the race. There are a couple of queries about, especially distance wise compared to the other European horses, as he has not won past 2380m. He has not won on rain affected going, plus he has only won 2 races. How many local Class 2 horses would we ever see line up in a Melbourne Cup? Very few is the answer to that question. So he has to be at his impeccable peak for tomorrow's affair. Can he win? Yes, he is one of the top overseas chances, as long as he can run out the 3200m strongly enough. Definite winning hope, must include in all forms of exotic bets.
9. Ice Chariot - It is commendable indeed that Kevin O'Brien has a runner in the 2008 version of the Cup. As an owner he is terrific for racing, a most likable bloke & enjoys every minute he spends on a race track. There should be more Kevin and Tanith O'Briens in this world. Alas, Ice Chariot would have to start 30 seconds before the rest of the field to have any winning hope. Admittedly, he has qualified, as a Derby winner, however his form is simply not good enough to beat most of his opponents tomorrow. No.
10. Viewed - Bart Cummings is the Cups King, he trains this 5yo entire, and always has his horses cherry ripe for Cup day. Nevertheless, what in goodness's name is this bloke doing in the field? He has shown no form whatsoever this preparation, after winning the 2400m Brisbane Cup in June, on a bog track with an over exaggerated winning margin. Comfortably held at each of his 4 runs this time, he would have to improve dramatically to figure in the finish of this race, or even the Lavazza Long Black run a couple of hours earlier tomorrow. No.
11. Littorio - Following his Turnbull Stakes win a month ago at Flemington, this 4yo gelding firmed dramatically in markets for both big Cups. And so he should have, the win was brilliant coming from a long way back in the field to win comfortably by a length. Unfortunately, his two subsequent runs have been most disappointing, culminating in what has to be said a shocker on Saturday in the Mackinnon. Blinkers go off tomorrow, however this will only relax him more and force him to settle nearer last, and he simply hasn't shown the dash over the longer distances for us to become excited about his chances. Littorio is one we are happy to risk and not include in any form of betting.
12. Bauer - This 6yo entire has followed in the footsteps of 2002 Cup victor Media Puzzle by winning the Geelong Cup to qualify for tomorrow's race. He sat wide that day, albeit with cover, and held his opponents safely in the run to the line. A better run in the race that day was put in by Light Vision who subsequently ran a magnificent second in the Saab on Saturday, being run down in the last bound by Moatize. Light Vision should have beaten Bauer that day, he wills struggle to win the Melbourne Cup. Not to mention the fact that Damian Oliver who rode Bauer to victory at Geelong, is riding Mad Rush in the Cup. No, we can safely rule out Bauer as a wining hope, and an exotic chance as well.
13. Boundless - We all love Steven & Trevor McKee for their feats with Sunline, who will ever forget her. Steven kindly autographed a photo of Sunline for us at Royal Randwick one day, a nicer bloke you could not meet. And he has indeed qualified this 4yo mare for the Melbourne Cup and she is entitled to have her opportunity. The fact is her form is woeful, she has no winning hope, nor even a remote place chance unless she puts a form reversal of dynamic proportions, and half the field breaks down, and we don't wish that upon any horse in the race. No.
14. Gallopin - Big things were expected of this 5yogelding this spring, however he ahs taken some time to warm to his task. Last start he won the Moonee Valley Cup over 2600m, unfortunately for Gallopin, form out of this race almost never stands up in the Melbourne Cup. Prior to that, he beaten easily by Newport in the Metropolitan handicap at Randwick, the form of this race is also not what it used to be. It is very difficult to see him figuring any where near the place getters tomorrow. No.
15. Guyno - This 5yo gelding calls Western Australia his home and indeed ti is terrific to see a representative from Sandgroper territory. Nevertheless, with all due respect to owners & trainers, what is he doing in the field. The only purpose he will serve is to get in the way of serious winning chances. No.
16. Zarita - Duel Oaks winning filly last season against inferior opposition who has taken time to reach her peak for this. From barrier 1 last start in the Cox Plate, she ran an even race to finish 4th only beaten a length and a half. She will have to get a perfect trail from barrier 7 to be any chance tomorrow, left for one last run at the leaders, however she couldn't finish off at Moonee Valley, doubt she can finish off any better in the Cup. Happy to leave her out.
17. Newport - It was not long ago that Metropolitan Handicap winners were all hailed as serious winning chances in the Melbourne Cup. In fact, Newport not only won the Metrop this year, he also annexed the 2400m Brisbane Cup last year, so he has creditable form to recommend him. The issue with him is whether he can run out the strong 3200m required to be victorious on Cup day, which I suppose is a genuine query about most runners tomorrow. Newport is trained by the very astute Paul Perry, who always comes to Melbourne in the spring with serious winning chances only. Newport has a bolters hope in this years Cup, especially if some of the overseas horses are not on their metal. Include in all exotics, definite place hope.
18. Profound Beauty - Following his victory with Vintage Crop in 1993, Dermot Weld has made his life's ambition to win every version of the Melbourne Cup. He succeeded in 2002 with Media Puzzle, and he returns every year with another contender, a 5yo mare of all things. There has been a bit of money in the past few days to say she can run a good race however, her last start 3rd at Leopardstown tells us she will struggle in the Cup. The two horses who beat her on the heavy track that day, were beaten pointlessly by Septimus at their previous outing. Yes, she does drop a massive 7.5kg tomorrow, nevertheless she will have to improve, or Septimus retard for her to be a winning chance. Happy to leave her out completely as mares (with one obvious exception in Makybe Diva) have dreadful records in the Melbourne Cup, also plenty of other queries about her including her Danehill breeding and ability to get the journey strongly. No.
19. Red Lord - Have to be blunt here, he is very fortunate to even be in the field. His form is simply not good enough to win a Melbourne Cup, or even threaten to run a place. Easy fold, leave him out, he should be there tomorrow.
20. Varevees - Why did the owners spend their money bringing a 6yo mare to Australia? Party time, maybe, that can be the only answer, unless of course the VRC foots the bill. Her form is woeful against less thans erious opposition, she has drawn 23, the only positive for her is jockey Craig WIlliams, and not even his magic can get her home in the first 15. No.
21. Prize Lady - Again, we have to be blunt, why is this 7yo mare even in the race? She has been beaten over 16 lengths cumulatively at her last 3 runs in far inferior grade to what she meets tomorrow. No.
22. Allesandro Volta - 4yo entire who should have a name change to Absolute Bolter. Beaten no less than 35 lengths at his last run, over 15 lengths cumulatively at his previous two runs, again, why is he here? Maybe as a pacemaker, don't know, don't care, cannot win, cannot place. No.
23. Barbaricus - Twelve days ago when we wrote the Caulfield Cup preview, we said this bloke should not be in the field. How wrong we were. He ran the race of his life at Caulfield, sitting wide early, going to the lead, then fighting on like a cut snake in the straight to run a magnificent 3rd. He then came out on Saturday in the WFA MAckinnon Stakes, jumping a massive 6.5kg again shoots away with a good break only to be run down in the last stride by Thesio. He drops 8kg on that run, he is in the Cup as much as any other horse in the race. Stephen Baster will give the gun run from barrier 3, he will be in front at the 200m mark, only time will tell if he can hang on. Serious winning chance, definite place chance, include in all exotics.
24. Moatize - 8 weeks ago, this 4yo was a maiden, a horse who had not won a race. Going into the Cup tomorrow, he can only boast two victories, the most recent in the Saab on Saturday which secured his place in the field. He is trained by Bart Cummings so has to be respected. However he received 4kg from Light Vision on Saturday, was only able to run him down in the final bound, prior to that he was beaten well by Bauer at Geelong who sat wide the whole way. Never doubt Bart's magic when it comes to the Melbourne Cup, however we cannot have Moatize in any way shape or form.
How will the race be run? As always, plenty of pace, horses coming over from the outside barriers trying to obtain a good position will make for a fast pace. Even if this doesn't occur, some horses will pull hard off a slow speed and jockeys will be forced to take them toward the lead. As always, whoever obtains the easiest run in transit, with cover, without doing any hard work, and then gains clear running in the early part of the straight will win. As long as they are able to run out the 3200m strongly.
The serious winning chances are Nom Du Jeu, Barbaricus, Septimus, MadRush, Zipping & Master O'Reilly. Definite place & exotic chances to Cest La Guerre, Honolulu, & Newport.
Dry track selections:-
1 Nom De Jeu 2 Barabaricus 3 Septimus 4 Zipping
Rain affected track selections:-
1 Nom De Jue 2 Septimus 3 Cest La Guerre 4 Newport
Best of luck to everyone punting on the Cup tomorrow. Always remember, a horse in the market (under $20) will win, and there will always be a long shot (over $33) run a place.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Derby Day Preview
Derby Day Preview
At long last, the great day has arrived. After a 12 month wait, the day every hardened punters salivates about is now only one sleep away, Derby Day at Flemington race course in Melbourne. This meeting has long been regarded as the best all round meeting held in Australia every year on the first day of the Melbourne Cup carnival. It has something for every taste, a new season 2yo race, an open 1200m sprint, the two major lead ups to the big one on Tuesday next, the major lead up to the Oaks run on Thursday, plus 3 races for the 3yos including the Blue Ribband, the VRC Derby. As always, the major talking point is the track and how it will play. Currently, mid afternoon Friday, the track is a dead (4), showers are forecast, however the most critical issue is the irrigation that has been deliberately sprayed onto the racing surface to take the sting out of the ground. Following only 3mm of actual rainfall this week, a massive 30mm of irrigation has been poured onto the track, thus with the rail back in the normal position, this could mean a big bias for punters to account for before placing bets. There is an excellent chance the track will play to an on pace on fence bias, as it usually does on Derby day. Put this together with the fact that the main form lines coming into the meeting derive from Caulfield two weeks ago where virtually no horse could make ground from the rear in the straight, then punters are faced with a real conundrum. The straight races as usual should play to the outside fence, therefore wide barriers will be of little consequence, in fact, they should be an advantage.
Let's look at the main races individually, we'll leave the 2yo event to those who have a far better knowledge & prowess of them than we could ever admit to:-
Carbine Club Stakes - looks a strong race for the 3yos this year, after what has been a few disappointing years for the race. There are plenty of chances despite the smallish field with Millbank, Caymans, Dr Doutes, Trustus & Tameer all having undeniable chances. We'll stick our neck out and select a last start maiden winner jumping to a Group 3 race, a feat in winning which is rarely achieved. Nevertheless, Grand Couture signalled in winning his latest outing at Bendigo that a city win was certainly within his grasp defeating the older horses in that maiden. From the astute Lee Freedman yard who place their horses with aplomb, he is up to this race without doubt following his 4 length victory over the 1400m last time. This followed a luckless second at Ballarat on that dubiously biased track where he was one of the only horses to make ground from the rear all day. Grand Couture is a gelding with plenty of promise and will give this race a real shake tomorrow. We doubt Millbank can figure in the finish, he fell in at Moonee Valley last Saturday, Caymans & Dr Doutes the hardest to beat.
Saab Quality (formerly Hotham Handicap) - Last chance Stakes for these to qualify for the big one on Tuesday, winning gains automatic entry, the rest will struggle to make the field. We have been following Light Vision for over 12 months now with great success. He is a most consistent horse and rarely puts in a poor one. Last start in the Geelong Cup his run had to be seen to be believed. He sat 3 and 4 wide the entire trip, then had the audacity to hit the front on straightening, only to fold under pressure over the final 150m. He still ran 4th, a Herculean performance beaten just on 2 lengths by Bauer who has plenty of admirers for the Melbourne Cup. If Light Vision gets into the field, then Bauer will not beat him on Tuesday. However Light Vision has to win the Saab to get into the Cup field. This he should achieve without too much fuss. How unlucky is Newport, win the time honoured Metropolitan, yet cannot even make it into the Caulfield Cup field, let alone the Melbourne Cup. In days gone by, Metrop winners were amongst the favourites in both big events, alas, no more. Newport has a great chance tomorrow. Plenty of money for Largo Lad today, so he is also expected to run a good race, field falls away dramatically from there, and you could not imagine in your wildest dreams a Cup winner coming from the remainder.
Wakeful Stakes - The 3yo fillies final lead up to the Oaks, the winner usually coming from this event. Very tough affair, nothing jumps out and grabs you, we could have 5-6 picks and miss a placegetter. Be very wary of the Caulfield bias from two weeks ago in this event, where Estee won over 2000m. Some of her opponents got a long way back and simply could make up the ground so we could see a form reversal or two here. For the record only, Poco Gusto to improve, Estee an undeniable chance, as are Miss Scarletti & Sparks Fly.
Coolmore (formerly the Ascot Vale Stakes) - The 3yos get another chance to shine in a Group 1 here this time over the straight 1200m. If times account for anything, then Northern Meteor is a living certainty. He has broken track records at Canterbury & Royal Randwick at his last two starts, the most recent a 5 length drubbing of a Group 3 field of 3yos. If he handles the straight track, then the race is as good as over, the others are simply lining up for the minor share of the prizes. Wilander beat Lucky Secret (who has won since) at Caulfield last start, he must have a good chance, as does the unbeaten Fist Of Fury, although he has been racing inferior opposition. Hayes brings Von Costa De Hero back from the 1600m of the Guineas for this, he is no Weekend Hussler, simply cannot win. The race falls away after this, with last start Brisbane winner on a slow track Portland the best of a mediocre bunch. Northern Meteor looks a good thing, Wilander a moral quinella.
MacKinnon Stakes - As with all the WFA races this spring, this race looks down on quality & depth, nevertheless, we are here to find a winner, not complain about the mediocrity in middle distance events in Australia. There are only a handful of chances, with massive form reversals required for most to win. Barbaricus ran a magnificent third in the Caulfield Cup, sitting wide then leading and doing all the hard work in the run. Again, his run may have been flattered due to the bias that day, however if he puts in like that again tomorrow, then he will go very close to winning. Princess Coup has a great chance, this race is usually reserved for the unlucky runner of the Cox Plate, and she got too far back and was poorly ridden that day. She is in the MacKinnon up to her ears. If Lottorio runs as he did in the Turnbull here a month ago, then he will almost win the race. He simply wasn't up to the Caulfield Cup, this might be his race. The only other possible winning hope is Red Ruler, however he had something amiss in the Caulfield Cup, and it is doubtful he could recover in a fortnight from that hard run, however he is an exotic hope. Tough race, maybe take quinellas and trifectas around the main 4.
VRC Derby - Already plenty written and spoken about this race. However, take out Whobegotyou, and what do we have? A bunch of mediocre 3yos given the opportunity to win a Group 1. If there is pace on & Whobegotyou runs the 2500m okay, and there is no on pace bias, then he is simply the best thing in a Derby since Mahogany back in the early 90s. The others won't get within the width of the Yarra of him, the race is as good as over. Carnero fired up badly with the blinkers on first time last start, Rawiller replaced by Shane Dye tomorrow, he could improve dramatically, especially over the 2500m which he has been looking for all spring. He is the only danger to Whobegotyou as long as he settles all right. Pre Eminence led on the leader bias at Caulfield last start, he will lead again, hopefully setting up a good speed which will suit the formerly mentioned two. He cannot however win a Derby unless the track is again biased toward front runners.
Myer Classic - Group 1 for fillies & mares, Yukko. An absolute lottery, simply throw into a hat the 16 names, and draw them out, as good a chance as any of selecting the winner. I don't even know where to start, preferably something drawn an inside barrier that will sit just off the speed, 3rd or 4th on the fence, that one will win.
Salinger Stakes - This used to be the crack sprint of the carnival and a Group 1 race, how times have changed. All things being equal, Sunburnt Land should win. He is a model of consistency, taken on and beaten everything thrown at him thus far, has drawn the middle so he can either go inside or out depending on where jockey Chris Symons chooses, he is the one to beat. Plenty of other chances, Nuclear Medicine will run a very good race, as will Swick who always goes well down the straight at his home track. Hot Danish, Biscayne Bay and Bon Hoffa the other hopes.
Well, there you have it, a complete run down on all the main races for tomorrow. Seriously, we suggest you watch the first 2-3 races to work out if there is or isn't any track bias. Watch prevailing weather conditions, look for those drawn out in the straight races, and avoid wide barriers in the non straight races. Best of luck to everyone having a punt on Derby day. We will send out our usual email to members in the morning with the best bets of the day.
At long last, the great day has arrived. After a 12 month wait, the day every hardened punters salivates about is now only one sleep away, Derby Day at Flemington race course in Melbourne. This meeting has long been regarded as the best all round meeting held in Australia every year on the first day of the Melbourne Cup carnival. It has something for every taste, a new season 2yo race, an open 1200m sprint, the two major lead ups to the big one on Tuesday next, the major lead up to the Oaks run on Thursday, plus 3 races for the 3yos including the Blue Ribband, the VRC Derby. As always, the major talking point is the track and how it will play. Currently, mid afternoon Friday, the track is a dead (4), showers are forecast, however the most critical issue is the irrigation that has been deliberately sprayed onto the racing surface to take the sting out of the ground. Following only 3mm of actual rainfall this week, a massive 30mm of irrigation has been poured onto the track, thus with the rail back in the normal position, this could mean a big bias for punters to account for before placing bets. There is an excellent chance the track will play to an on pace on fence bias, as it usually does on Derby day. Put this together with the fact that the main form lines coming into the meeting derive from Caulfield two weeks ago where virtually no horse could make ground from the rear in the straight, then punters are faced with a real conundrum. The straight races as usual should play to the outside fence, therefore wide barriers will be of little consequence, in fact, they should be an advantage.
Let's look at the main races individually, we'll leave the 2yo event to those who have a far better knowledge & prowess of them than we could ever admit to:-
Carbine Club Stakes - looks a strong race for the 3yos this year, after what has been a few disappointing years for the race. There are plenty of chances despite the smallish field with Millbank, Caymans, Dr Doutes, Trustus & Tameer all having undeniable chances. We'll stick our neck out and select a last start maiden winner jumping to a Group 3 race, a feat in winning which is rarely achieved. Nevertheless, Grand Couture signalled in winning his latest outing at Bendigo that a city win was certainly within his grasp defeating the older horses in that maiden. From the astute Lee Freedman yard who place their horses with aplomb, he is up to this race without doubt following his 4 length victory over the 1400m last time. This followed a luckless second at Ballarat on that dubiously biased track where he was one of the only horses to make ground from the rear all day. Grand Couture is a gelding with plenty of promise and will give this race a real shake tomorrow. We doubt Millbank can figure in the finish, he fell in at Moonee Valley last Saturday, Caymans & Dr Doutes the hardest to beat.
Saab Quality (formerly Hotham Handicap) - Last chance Stakes for these to qualify for the big one on Tuesday, winning gains automatic entry, the rest will struggle to make the field. We have been following Light Vision for over 12 months now with great success. He is a most consistent horse and rarely puts in a poor one. Last start in the Geelong Cup his run had to be seen to be believed. He sat 3 and 4 wide the entire trip, then had the audacity to hit the front on straightening, only to fold under pressure over the final 150m. He still ran 4th, a Herculean performance beaten just on 2 lengths by Bauer who has plenty of admirers for the Melbourne Cup. If Light Vision gets into the field, then Bauer will not beat him on Tuesday. However Light Vision has to win the Saab to get into the Cup field. This he should achieve without too much fuss. How unlucky is Newport, win the time honoured Metropolitan, yet cannot even make it into the Caulfield Cup field, let alone the Melbourne Cup. In days gone by, Metrop winners were amongst the favourites in both big events, alas, no more. Newport has a great chance tomorrow. Plenty of money for Largo Lad today, so he is also expected to run a good race, field falls away dramatically from there, and you could not imagine in your wildest dreams a Cup winner coming from the remainder.
Wakeful Stakes - The 3yo fillies final lead up to the Oaks, the winner usually coming from this event. Very tough affair, nothing jumps out and grabs you, we could have 5-6 picks and miss a placegetter. Be very wary of the Caulfield bias from two weeks ago in this event, where Estee won over 2000m. Some of her opponents got a long way back and simply could make up the ground so we could see a form reversal or two here. For the record only, Poco Gusto to improve, Estee an undeniable chance, as are Miss Scarletti & Sparks Fly.
Coolmore (formerly the Ascot Vale Stakes) - The 3yos get another chance to shine in a Group 1 here this time over the straight 1200m. If times account for anything, then Northern Meteor is a living certainty. He has broken track records at Canterbury & Royal Randwick at his last two starts, the most recent a 5 length drubbing of a Group 3 field of 3yos. If he handles the straight track, then the race is as good as over, the others are simply lining up for the minor share of the prizes. Wilander beat Lucky Secret (who has won since) at Caulfield last start, he must have a good chance, as does the unbeaten Fist Of Fury, although he has been racing inferior opposition. Hayes brings Von Costa De Hero back from the 1600m of the Guineas for this, he is no Weekend Hussler, simply cannot win. The race falls away after this, with last start Brisbane winner on a slow track Portland the best of a mediocre bunch. Northern Meteor looks a good thing, Wilander a moral quinella.
MacKinnon Stakes - As with all the WFA races this spring, this race looks down on quality & depth, nevertheless, we are here to find a winner, not complain about the mediocrity in middle distance events in Australia. There are only a handful of chances, with massive form reversals required for most to win. Barbaricus ran a magnificent third in the Caulfield Cup, sitting wide then leading and doing all the hard work in the run. Again, his run may have been flattered due to the bias that day, however if he puts in like that again tomorrow, then he will go very close to winning. Princess Coup has a great chance, this race is usually reserved for the unlucky runner of the Cox Plate, and she got too far back and was poorly ridden that day. She is in the MacKinnon up to her ears. If Lottorio runs as he did in the Turnbull here a month ago, then he will almost win the race. He simply wasn't up to the Caulfield Cup, this might be his race. The only other possible winning hope is Red Ruler, however he had something amiss in the Caulfield Cup, and it is doubtful he could recover in a fortnight from that hard run, however he is an exotic hope. Tough race, maybe take quinellas and trifectas around the main 4.
VRC Derby - Already plenty written and spoken about this race. However, take out Whobegotyou, and what do we have? A bunch of mediocre 3yos given the opportunity to win a Group 1. If there is pace on & Whobegotyou runs the 2500m okay, and there is no on pace bias, then he is simply the best thing in a Derby since Mahogany back in the early 90s. The others won't get within the width of the Yarra of him, the race is as good as over. Carnero fired up badly with the blinkers on first time last start, Rawiller replaced by Shane Dye tomorrow, he could improve dramatically, especially over the 2500m which he has been looking for all spring. He is the only danger to Whobegotyou as long as he settles all right. Pre Eminence led on the leader bias at Caulfield last start, he will lead again, hopefully setting up a good speed which will suit the formerly mentioned two. He cannot however win a Derby unless the track is again biased toward front runners.
Myer Classic - Group 1 for fillies & mares, Yukko. An absolute lottery, simply throw into a hat the 16 names, and draw them out, as good a chance as any of selecting the winner. I don't even know where to start, preferably something drawn an inside barrier that will sit just off the speed, 3rd or 4th on the fence, that one will win.
Salinger Stakes - This used to be the crack sprint of the carnival and a Group 1 race, how times have changed. All things being equal, Sunburnt Land should win. He is a model of consistency, taken on and beaten everything thrown at him thus far, has drawn the middle so he can either go inside or out depending on where jockey Chris Symons chooses, he is the one to beat. Plenty of other chances, Nuclear Medicine will run a very good race, as will Swick who always goes well down the straight at his home track. Hot Danish, Biscayne Bay and Bon Hoffa the other hopes.
Well, there you have it, a complete run down on all the main races for tomorrow. Seriously, we suggest you watch the first 2-3 races to work out if there is or isn't any track bias. Watch prevailing weather conditions, look for those drawn out in the straight races, and avoid wide barriers in the non straight races. Best of luck to everyone having a punt on Derby day. We will send out our usual email to members in the morning with the best bets of the day.
Friday, October 24, 2008
2008 WS Cox Plate
The time honoured W S Cox Plate is always remembered in Australian racing annuls as the race the best horse in the country wins. Any thoroughbred with ambitions of claiming the number 1 title simply has to have a Cox Plate victory in his resume or serious doubts are caste upon a legitimate claim to fame. All the greats have won the race, run on a saucer shaped track a short journey north east of the city of Melbourne in Victoria. Though the track is less than ideal to give every horse the best winning opportunity, somehow, greatness does ebb to the surface most years for the best horse to prove victorious.
In years gone by there have also been some outstanding clashes between similarly great race horses. These head to head clashes have been immortalised adding to the excitement of the race. Nevertheless, harsh reality has struck us all between the eyes for the 2008 version of the champion's race, with what has to be said a less than quality field lining up tomorrow afternoon. Honestly, if you had read all the names of the starters out a month ago, hailing each one a winner of the Cox Plate, how many would you have thought had the ability to be there on race day, let alone win the great race? As little as a month ago, only two entrants were even thought of as being aimed at the race, and they are the Kiwi mare Princess Coup along with the best 3yo filly in NSW Samantha Miss. Add the Lloyd Williams trained Zipping, and possibly the completely out of form Maldivian I doubt any of the others were remote outsiders to make the field. However the lack of depth simply proves the arguement that Australian middle distance & staying stocks are badly depleted in this era and steps need to be taken immediately to rectify the situation. Yes, possibly this is the best field of 12 that could have been assembled, however that does not mean the race meets the reverence and esteem of previous years. In fact, we believe the 2008 version is the weakest, certainly in the modern era, more likely the weakest of all time. A very sad indictment on such a great race.
Nevertheless, one horse will indeed become part of the legendary history of Cox Plate winners tomorrow afternoon, and seriously, not too many of the starters deserve such a high accolade. In fact, in a few years time we will look back and wonder how some of the horses even got into the field. Princess Coup, Samantha Miss both deserve their position and both also deserve to be given a great winning chance. Zipping on his best form would be a worthy Cox Plate placegetter, so striking such a weak lot this year places him in an excellent winning position. Now, unless there is a massive form reversal from one of the other runners, or the former 3 strike extreme bad luck, that is your race. We have followed Master O'Reilly's career from the early days, backing him at almost every one of his starts. He is a great favourite of ours especially after his Caulfield Cup victory last year. However, not even completely biased minds such as ours could ever contemplate the Master being a Cox plate champion, despite the weakness of this years field.
Firstly, we'll discount those who simply cannot win. Raheeb was beaten a minute in the Epsom and should not be in the field, Gallant Tess, a fine mare, however she is simply not up to a Cox Plate. It would take a form reversal of a most extreme course to believe Sirmione could possible figure in the finish. Zarita unfortunately for trainer Pat Hyland in a similar boat. Cest La Guerre struggled to get past Duoro Valley in the Caulfield Stakes and he finished distanced last week in the Caulfield Cup, impossible to consider Cest La Guerre as a winning hope. It hurts to say it, however Master O'Reilly is out of his depth in a true Cox Plate, this year may be different, however it is difficult to see him figuring in the finish. His aim for 2008 has always been the Melbourne Cup, and that is where his future lies.
Now, let's look at how the race will be run. Big Maldivian has blinkers on for the first time tomorrow in an attempt to sharpen him up. And that the blinkers will most definitely do, and if he manoeuvres himself with the aplomb to get out of the barriers unscathed and on equal terms, then he will shoot straight to the front and lead easily. Regrettably for likable trainer Mark Kavanagh, big Mal will be gone at the school near the 800m mark and will be a sitting shot for the run on horses. The Gai Waterhouse trained Epsom Handicap victor Thesio will also begin well from the outside barrier and will come across the face of the field to sit second, either outside Maldivian or in behind him depending on how quick the blinkers make Mal go. It is impossible to imagine Thesio being in the finish of a Cox Plate, however, he does have a rank outside place hope this year, as he will be on top of the speed and will fight on in the straight. The key to the race is where the main hopes position up in the run. From barrier 2 Samantha Miss has to race closer than she has in her Sydney victories, possibly 3rd or 4th on the fence with such a fast pace. Princess Coup & Zipping always get a long way back, and considering the fast pace, then that should be the case again tomorrow. They will get the opportunity to run on however as they have the ability and more quality than their opponents in the race. So long as they are not more than 6-8 lengths from the leaders coming to the 800m, then they should be able to get home over the top of most of them.
So, we've discounted the majority of the field as winning hopes, we are now left with Samantha Miss, Princess Coup, Zipping and the Mick Price trained Alimosa. Three of these are of the fairer sex, and mares don't win Cox Plates unless they are outstanding, whilst only one 3yo filly has ever won the race. So what does this mean, Zipping is a certainty? Well, if the real Zipping fronts up at Moonee Valley tomorrow, that may well be the case, however there a couple of him, and he will need to be right on his metal to salute. Everything will have to go his way, he will have to have a cosy run, with cover, get clear by the school in plenty of time to wind up, then have an unchequered passage over the final 600m to figure in the finish. Hate to say it, but it certainly looks like a females race in 2008. It is doubtful Alimosa has the class to win, despite an emphatic victory in the Toorak handicap. That form rarely stands up in a Cox Plate, although this is an unusual year.
Down to the nitty gritty. Princess Coup has taken all before her in New Zealand this year. She has beaten the best, and her form in Australia this time last year was also outstanding and right up with the best we could put together. She has the class to win, the only minor concern is how far back she will get, and whether she too can secure a clear run from the 800m. If all goes well, she will run either first or second. Her travel arrangements have been less than ideal for such a big race, and she only arrived in Australia yesterday, so that in itself has to be a query, however she has travelled here before, hopefully nothing has gone awry. Samantha Miss as stated should race closer to the pace tomorrow, she has the services of leading Group 1 jockey Glen Boss, has no weight and is definitely the horse with the most potential in the race. This time next year, we may well be saying she is the best horse in the country, however, we don't have a crystal ball to see if that will be the case.
When the business end of the race starts at the school, Maldivian will tire, giving Thesio the unenviable task of taking the lead and being left a sitting shot. As Maldivian tires out of the race Samantha Miss will ease into the race nicely with a trail behind Thesio, then Boss will shoot her to the front as the field wheels into the short straight. Princess Coup, Alimosa & Zipping will all have taken off out wide at the 800m and will have to be within 2 lengths of the filly on the turn to beat her with her light weight. They will try valiantly, but in vain. Samantha Miss will become only the second filly in history to win a Cox Plate. Why? Because she is the best horse in the field, she will get the best run from a good barrier, has the feather weight to carry and as intimated earlier, hindsight being the wonderful thing that it is, in 12 months time she will be hailed as the best horse in Australia. In any normal Cox Plate year, a 3yo filly would have no winning hope, this year she does and will.
Our selections:-
1 Samanatha Miss
2 Princess Coup
3 Zipping
4 Thesio
Best of luck to everyone having a punt on the race. Hopefully it will be a clean affair with every horse obtaining every opportunity to win.
In years gone by there have also been some outstanding clashes between similarly great race horses. These head to head clashes have been immortalised adding to the excitement of the race. Nevertheless, harsh reality has struck us all between the eyes for the 2008 version of the champion's race, with what has to be said a less than quality field lining up tomorrow afternoon. Honestly, if you had read all the names of the starters out a month ago, hailing each one a winner of the Cox Plate, how many would you have thought had the ability to be there on race day, let alone win the great race? As little as a month ago, only two entrants were even thought of as being aimed at the race, and they are the Kiwi mare Princess Coup along with the best 3yo filly in NSW Samantha Miss. Add the Lloyd Williams trained Zipping, and possibly the completely out of form Maldivian I doubt any of the others were remote outsiders to make the field. However the lack of depth simply proves the arguement that Australian middle distance & staying stocks are badly depleted in this era and steps need to be taken immediately to rectify the situation. Yes, possibly this is the best field of 12 that could have been assembled, however that does not mean the race meets the reverence and esteem of previous years. In fact, we believe the 2008 version is the weakest, certainly in the modern era, more likely the weakest of all time. A very sad indictment on such a great race.
Nevertheless, one horse will indeed become part of the legendary history of Cox Plate winners tomorrow afternoon, and seriously, not too many of the starters deserve such a high accolade. In fact, in a few years time we will look back and wonder how some of the horses even got into the field. Princess Coup, Samantha Miss both deserve their position and both also deserve to be given a great winning chance. Zipping on his best form would be a worthy Cox Plate placegetter, so striking such a weak lot this year places him in an excellent winning position. Now, unless there is a massive form reversal from one of the other runners, or the former 3 strike extreme bad luck, that is your race. We have followed Master O'Reilly's career from the early days, backing him at almost every one of his starts. He is a great favourite of ours especially after his Caulfield Cup victory last year. However, not even completely biased minds such as ours could ever contemplate the Master being a Cox plate champion, despite the weakness of this years field.
Firstly, we'll discount those who simply cannot win. Raheeb was beaten a minute in the Epsom and should not be in the field, Gallant Tess, a fine mare, however she is simply not up to a Cox Plate. It would take a form reversal of a most extreme course to believe Sirmione could possible figure in the finish. Zarita unfortunately for trainer Pat Hyland in a similar boat. Cest La Guerre struggled to get past Duoro Valley in the Caulfield Stakes and he finished distanced last week in the Caulfield Cup, impossible to consider Cest La Guerre as a winning hope. It hurts to say it, however Master O'Reilly is out of his depth in a true Cox Plate, this year may be different, however it is difficult to see him figuring in the finish. His aim for 2008 has always been the Melbourne Cup, and that is where his future lies.
Now, let's look at how the race will be run. Big Maldivian has blinkers on for the first time tomorrow in an attempt to sharpen him up. And that the blinkers will most definitely do, and if he manoeuvres himself with the aplomb to get out of the barriers unscathed and on equal terms, then he will shoot straight to the front and lead easily. Regrettably for likable trainer Mark Kavanagh, big Mal will be gone at the school near the 800m mark and will be a sitting shot for the run on horses. The Gai Waterhouse trained Epsom Handicap victor Thesio will also begin well from the outside barrier and will come across the face of the field to sit second, either outside Maldivian or in behind him depending on how quick the blinkers make Mal go. It is impossible to imagine Thesio being in the finish of a Cox Plate, however, he does have a rank outside place hope this year, as he will be on top of the speed and will fight on in the straight. The key to the race is where the main hopes position up in the run. From barrier 2 Samantha Miss has to race closer than she has in her Sydney victories, possibly 3rd or 4th on the fence with such a fast pace. Princess Coup & Zipping always get a long way back, and considering the fast pace, then that should be the case again tomorrow. They will get the opportunity to run on however as they have the ability and more quality than their opponents in the race. So long as they are not more than 6-8 lengths from the leaders coming to the 800m, then they should be able to get home over the top of most of them.
So, we've discounted the majority of the field as winning hopes, we are now left with Samantha Miss, Princess Coup, Zipping and the Mick Price trained Alimosa. Three of these are of the fairer sex, and mares don't win Cox Plates unless they are outstanding, whilst only one 3yo filly has ever won the race. So what does this mean, Zipping is a certainty? Well, if the real Zipping fronts up at Moonee Valley tomorrow, that may well be the case, however there a couple of him, and he will need to be right on his metal to salute. Everything will have to go his way, he will have to have a cosy run, with cover, get clear by the school in plenty of time to wind up, then have an unchequered passage over the final 600m to figure in the finish. Hate to say it, but it certainly looks like a females race in 2008. It is doubtful Alimosa has the class to win, despite an emphatic victory in the Toorak handicap. That form rarely stands up in a Cox Plate, although this is an unusual year.
Down to the nitty gritty. Princess Coup has taken all before her in New Zealand this year. She has beaten the best, and her form in Australia this time last year was also outstanding and right up with the best we could put together. She has the class to win, the only minor concern is how far back she will get, and whether she too can secure a clear run from the 800m. If all goes well, she will run either first or second. Her travel arrangements have been less than ideal for such a big race, and she only arrived in Australia yesterday, so that in itself has to be a query, however she has travelled here before, hopefully nothing has gone awry. Samantha Miss as stated should race closer to the pace tomorrow, she has the services of leading Group 1 jockey Glen Boss, has no weight and is definitely the horse with the most potential in the race. This time next year, we may well be saying she is the best horse in the country, however, we don't have a crystal ball to see if that will be the case.
When the business end of the race starts at the school, Maldivian will tire, giving Thesio the unenviable task of taking the lead and being left a sitting shot. As Maldivian tires out of the race Samantha Miss will ease into the race nicely with a trail behind Thesio, then Boss will shoot her to the front as the field wheels into the short straight. Princess Coup, Alimosa & Zipping will all have taken off out wide at the 800m and will have to be within 2 lengths of the filly on the turn to beat her with her light weight. They will try valiantly, but in vain. Samantha Miss will become only the second filly in history to win a Cox Plate. Why? Because she is the best horse in the field, she will get the best run from a good barrier, has the feather weight to carry and as intimated earlier, hindsight being the wonderful thing that it is, in 12 months time she will be hailed as the best horse in Australia. In any normal Cox Plate year, a 3yo filly would have no winning hope, this year she does and will.
Our selections:-
1 Samanatha Miss
2 Princess Coup
3 Zipping
4 Thesio
Best of luck to everyone having a punt on the race. Hopefully it will be a clean affair with every horse obtaining every opportunity to win.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Dominance of Overseas Horses Spring 2008
Following the victories of the Goldolphin All The Good in the Caulfield Cup on Saturday plus the Luka Cumani trained Bauer in the Geelong Cup yesterday, questions must be asked about the quality of middle distance horses being produced in Australia. However the issue probably goes even deeper than this when we look at the field for Australia's number WFA event, the Cox Plate being run this Saturday at Moonee Valley, where it must be said the field looks to be the weakest in many, many years.
Let's firstly go back 12 months to the Spring of 2007 which was held in the midst of the EI crisis, and look at who won the major races. Caulfield Cup was taken out by Master O'Reilly, who had legitimately come through his grades in Victoria and proved a superior stayer on the day. The ease of his victory, 2.3 lengths, however levelled certain questions at the strength of the field considering a month previous Master O'Reilly was running at provincial tracks in Victoria. His rank failure in his next appearance in the Melbourne Cup also cast considerable doubt about the form of the Caulfield event. The Cox Plate was taken out by the Colin Little trained El Segundo who certainly deserved the accolade of being a Cox plate champion after winning several Group 1 races throughout the 2006/07 season, and being runner up in the Plate the year before. The big one on the first Tuesday in November 2007, went to the Lloyd Williams owned Efficient, who had not won a race since the VRC Derby of 2006, outsiders filling all placings. So as far back as the spring of 2007, there were most definitely question marks over the form of the major races. Even if we go back another year or two, where we saw the great old stager Fields of Omagh win two Cox Plates, with all due respect to him, the writing was on the wall some time ago. The fact is since the halcyon days of the late 90s early 2000s, where we saw the likes of Northerly, Sunline, Elvestrom, Lonhro dominating the great races around the country, Australian horses have since been left behind by overseas invaders. This includes those from the land of the long white cloud, and the situation has really been brought to fruition during the Spring of 2008. It has now become a crisis that cannot be ignored by administrators any longer.
If we look closely at the result of the 2008 Caulfield Cup, the best runs in the race came from the winner, All The Good, runner up Nom De Jur and 4th placegetter Mad Rush, all bred and trained outside of Australia. The 3rd placegetter, Danny O'Brien trained Barbaricus, was lucky to even obtain a start in the race being first emergency and even the best optimism of O'Brien would have given his other two runners in the race Douro valley & Master O'Reilly much more chance than the 150/1 shot Barbaricus. The favourites were not cited. Weekend Hussler who is allegedly the best horse in Australia has not won beyond 1800m, and after his effort at Caulfield, must now be left to run in race up to 1600m only. Douro Valley who was runner up in the Caulfield Cup in 2007, went on to win the major lead up to both Caulfield Cup & Cox Plate in 2008 the Caulfield Stakes, was beaten further than you or I could throw a cricket ball. Master O'Reilly finished 7th last Saturday after winning the event in 2007, however he didn't even get warm in 2008.
So where will the winner of the 2008 Melbourne Cup appear from? Certainly not from any of the Australian stayers. There must be extreme doubt cast over the form of 2007 Cup winner Efficient following the failures this spring of any horse who performed well in 2007. This leaves only the overseas horses to stand up. All The Good, Mad Rush, Bauer & Nom De Jur are all in form, fit and ready to tackle the 3200m on Tuesday week. Throw in Coolmore's Septimus and it is very likely Australian horses will not a fill a placing in the first 5 of this years great race. What a tragic indictment for the Australian racing & breeding industry if this was to occur, and it most likely will.
So why has this happened, what does it mean, and where are we heading? Firstly, this has obviously occurred because Australian breeders are only interested in breeding speedy 2yo squibs to race for the extremely over funded 2yo races like the Magic Millions & Golden Slipper. You cannot blame owners, breeders & trainers for attacking the big prize money, they would be crazy not to. Race schedulers around the country are the one's to blame as rarely do we see more than one race further than 1600m on any race meeting's program. This includes provincial & country racing, in fact most country meetings don't ever see a race of a distance further than 1600m. So why should breeders breed stayers, why should owners buy them, why should trainers even bother to train them in some parts of the country. We cannot answer that question. An even sadder truth is the horses bred for speed to race early, either lose form or break down and rarely race on past their 3yo season.
The ramifications for the industry are far reaching. More horses are being bred, creating a far more even spread ability wise of thoroughbreds racing in the country. There are far too many stallions and non commercial broodmares creating a severe lack of quality throughout the breed in recent years. Where are the champions of the turf in 2008? Don't tell me Weekend Hussler who can't race well beyond a mile is a champion. We haven't seen an outstanding race horse in this country since Lonhro, Sunline or Northerly, and they were at their peaks some 6-7 years ago. And there certainly are not any Might & Powers nor has there been since his reign back in the late 90s. Where are the outstanding WFA horses, even stepping back a notch to the likes of a Filante or a Juggler or an Octagonal who were always competitive in Cox Plates. The quality is not getting any better and the racing industry as a whole needs to look very closely at this and rectify the situation because if they don't, in 10 years time Australia won't even have a runner in the Melbourne Cup. Even the great Makybe Diva was able to win a race like the Cox Plate, a race she certainly would not have won had the field been of previous years quality. She was a great horse, a great stayer, one of which it is unlikely we will ever see again.
Look at the 2008 Cox Plate field. Now, think back about a month to mid September, and say out loud how many of the starters in the race at Moonee Valley on Saturday you honestly thought would be there on the day. That is not even to say how many you thought may have been winning chances a month ago, but how many actually achieved a start. Seriously, there are only two horses in Saturday's race that we thought one month ago may have been there, Princess Coup & Samantha Miss. There are 4 or 5 who would have never made the field, never even have gone close to making the field in some years like 1996, 1997, or 2001. The 2008 version of Australia's number 1 WFA event, is the weakest we have seen in over 45 years of following horse racing. In fact, we would have to say the quality of the field this year brings the name W S Cox Plate into disrepute.
Another impact the lack of quality horses is having is on the punter. The punter is in our opinion the backbone of the racing industry in Australia, without it is doubtful whether the industry would exist at all. He is the one who fronts up day after day, week after week outlaying his hard earned in the ultimate endeavour to find that elusive winner. The task set for punters is now enormous with all these overseas horses it is becoming increasingly difficult for him to piece together form lines. Not to mention whether the overseas horse has travelled well, settled in, acclimatised, eaten well. He has no idea, after so many dismal failures over the years by the likes of Oscar Schindler & Maamool, we then see All The Good & Taufan's Melody win Caulfield Cups completely friendless in the betting markets. And who can blame the punter for shying away from them after previously bad experiences. The other impact on the punter is with the poorer quality Australian stayers lining up in the big Group1 races, this leaves another void in the lesser events over the carnival, the Group 2 middle distance race, and the time honoured Country Cups that are held at this time of the year. Seymour, Benalla, Cranbourne & Moe have all held their version already this year, along with Geelong yesterday, and it must be said their Cup fields have been of lesser quality than what punters would normally become enthused about. Cranbourne in particular generally throws up a couple of Caulfield Cup runners, not this year. And again, as we spiral down through the grades, the dearth of quality horse flesh in these lesser races then impacts on the non Group city races, as well as Class racing around the provincial and country areas. Horses are now racing well out of their grade, it is becoming increasingly difficult for horses to string together several victories, and form lines are certainly not holding up as the used to. The punters conundrum is becoming greater by the day.
So the impact of the breeding industry, along with race scheduling is certainly far reaching. What will Racing Victoria & the VRC say publicly when no Australian horses finish in the first 5 or 6 in the Melbourne Cup? They will spruik how truly an International race that we now have and we should all be very proud to be Australian and be a part of it. And we should all be very proud to be Australian, indeed, however you may leave us out of supporting the giving of our major trophy and prize money to the hit and run visitors who put little else back in to Australian racing other than for one or two days of the year. That prize money in itself, if spread throughout the industry would do far more good than thrown at those who don't need it, those only wishing to prance around in the limelight for a day or two then disappear for another 12 months all at our expense. And all in the name of being a truly international event.
Bring back the days of Might & Power leading all the way, bring back the days of Sunline demoralising a top class field, bring back the days of the fighting tiger Northerly staving off all challengers. Please bring us some stayers who are able to compete at the highest level again.
Let's firstly go back 12 months to the Spring of 2007 which was held in the midst of the EI crisis, and look at who won the major races. Caulfield Cup was taken out by Master O'Reilly, who had legitimately come through his grades in Victoria and proved a superior stayer on the day. The ease of his victory, 2.3 lengths, however levelled certain questions at the strength of the field considering a month previous Master O'Reilly was running at provincial tracks in Victoria. His rank failure in his next appearance in the Melbourne Cup also cast considerable doubt about the form of the Caulfield event. The Cox Plate was taken out by the Colin Little trained El Segundo who certainly deserved the accolade of being a Cox plate champion after winning several Group 1 races throughout the 2006/07 season, and being runner up in the Plate the year before. The big one on the first Tuesday in November 2007, went to the Lloyd Williams owned Efficient, who had not won a race since the VRC Derby of 2006, outsiders filling all placings. So as far back as the spring of 2007, there were most definitely question marks over the form of the major races. Even if we go back another year or two, where we saw the great old stager Fields of Omagh win two Cox Plates, with all due respect to him, the writing was on the wall some time ago. The fact is since the halcyon days of the late 90s early 2000s, where we saw the likes of Northerly, Sunline, Elvestrom, Lonhro dominating the great races around the country, Australian horses have since been left behind by overseas invaders. This includes those from the land of the long white cloud, and the situation has really been brought to fruition during the Spring of 2008. It has now become a crisis that cannot be ignored by administrators any longer.
If we look closely at the result of the 2008 Caulfield Cup, the best runs in the race came from the winner, All The Good, runner up Nom De Jur and 4th placegetter Mad Rush, all bred and trained outside of Australia. The 3rd placegetter, Danny O'Brien trained Barbaricus, was lucky to even obtain a start in the race being first emergency and even the best optimism of O'Brien would have given his other two runners in the race Douro valley & Master O'Reilly much more chance than the 150/1 shot Barbaricus. The favourites were not cited. Weekend Hussler who is allegedly the best horse in Australia has not won beyond 1800m, and after his effort at Caulfield, must now be left to run in race up to 1600m only. Douro Valley who was runner up in the Caulfield Cup in 2007, went on to win the major lead up to both Caulfield Cup & Cox Plate in 2008 the Caulfield Stakes, was beaten further than you or I could throw a cricket ball. Master O'Reilly finished 7th last Saturday after winning the event in 2007, however he didn't even get warm in 2008.
So where will the winner of the 2008 Melbourne Cup appear from? Certainly not from any of the Australian stayers. There must be extreme doubt cast over the form of 2007 Cup winner Efficient following the failures this spring of any horse who performed well in 2007. This leaves only the overseas horses to stand up. All The Good, Mad Rush, Bauer & Nom De Jur are all in form, fit and ready to tackle the 3200m on Tuesday week. Throw in Coolmore's Septimus and it is very likely Australian horses will not a fill a placing in the first 5 of this years great race. What a tragic indictment for the Australian racing & breeding industry if this was to occur, and it most likely will.
So why has this happened, what does it mean, and where are we heading? Firstly, this has obviously occurred because Australian breeders are only interested in breeding speedy 2yo squibs to race for the extremely over funded 2yo races like the Magic Millions & Golden Slipper. You cannot blame owners, breeders & trainers for attacking the big prize money, they would be crazy not to. Race schedulers around the country are the one's to blame as rarely do we see more than one race further than 1600m on any race meeting's program. This includes provincial & country racing, in fact most country meetings don't ever see a race of a distance further than 1600m. So why should breeders breed stayers, why should owners buy them, why should trainers even bother to train them in some parts of the country. We cannot answer that question. An even sadder truth is the horses bred for speed to race early, either lose form or break down and rarely race on past their 3yo season.
The ramifications for the industry are far reaching. More horses are being bred, creating a far more even spread ability wise of thoroughbreds racing in the country. There are far too many stallions and non commercial broodmares creating a severe lack of quality throughout the breed in recent years. Where are the champions of the turf in 2008? Don't tell me Weekend Hussler who can't race well beyond a mile is a champion. We haven't seen an outstanding race horse in this country since Lonhro, Sunline or Northerly, and they were at their peaks some 6-7 years ago. And there certainly are not any Might & Powers nor has there been since his reign back in the late 90s. Where are the outstanding WFA horses, even stepping back a notch to the likes of a Filante or a Juggler or an Octagonal who were always competitive in Cox Plates. The quality is not getting any better and the racing industry as a whole needs to look very closely at this and rectify the situation because if they don't, in 10 years time Australia won't even have a runner in the Melbourne Cup. Even the great Makybe Diva was able to win a race like the Cox Plate, a race she certainly would not have won had the field been of previous years quality. She was a great horse, a great stayer, one of which it is unlikely we will ever see again.
Look at the 2008 Cox Plate field. Now, think back about a month to mid September, and say out loud how many of the starters in the race at Moonee Valley on Saturday you honestly thought would be there on the day. That is not even to say how many you thought may have been winning chances a month ago, but how many actually achieved a start. Seriously, there are only two horses in Saturday's race that we thought one month ago may have been there, Princess Coup & Samantha Miss. There are 4 or 5 who would have never made the field, never even have gone close to making the field in some years like 1996, 1997, or 2001. The 2008 version of Australia's number 1 WFA event, is the weakest we have seen in over 45 years of following horse racing. In fact, we would have to say the quality of the field this year brings the name W S Cox Plate into disrepute.
Another impact the lack of quality horses is having is on the punter. The punter is in our opinion the backbone of the racing industry in Australia, without it is doubtful whether the industry would exist at all. He is the one who fronts up day after day, week after week outlaying his hard earned in the ultimate endeavour to find that elusive winner. The task set for punters is now enormous with all these overseas horses it is becoming increasingly difficult for him to piece together form lines. Not to mention whether the overseas horse has travelled well, settled in, acclimatised, eaten well. He has no idea, after so many dismal failures over the years by the likes of Oscar Schindler & Maamool, we then see All The Good & Taufan's Melody win Caulfield Cups completely friendless in the betting markets. And who can blame the punter for shying away from them after previously bad experiences. The other impact on the punter is with the poorer quality Australian stayers lining up in the big Group1 races, this leaves another void in the lesser events over the carnival, the Group 2 middle distance race, and the time honoured Country Cups that are held at this time of the year. Seymour, Benalla, Cranbourne & Moe have all held their version already this year, along with Geelong yesterday, and it must be said their Cup fields have been of lesser quality than what punters would normally become enthused about. Cranbourne in particular generally throws up a couple of Caulfield Cup runners, not this year. And again, as we spiral down through the grades, the dearth of quality horse flesh in these lesser races then impacts on the non Group city races, as well as Class racing around the provincial and country areas. Horses are now racing well out of their grade, it is becoming increasingly difficult for horses to string together several victories, and form lines are certainly not holding up as the used to. The punters conundrum is becoming greater by the day.
So the impact of the breeding industry, along with race scheduling is certainly far reaching. What will Racing Victoria & the VRC say publicly when no Australian horses finish in the first 5 or 6 in the Melbourne Cup? They will spruik how truly an International race that we now have and we should all be very proud to be Australian and be a part of it. And we should all be very proud to be Australian, indeed, however you may leave us out of supporting the giving of our major trophy and prize money to the hit and run visitors who put little else back in to Australian racing other than for one or two days of the year. That prize money in itself, if spread throughout the industry would do far more good than thrown at those who don't need it, those only wishing to prance around in the limelight for a day or two then disappear for another 12 months all at our expense. And all in the name of being a truly international event.
Bring back the days of Might & Power leading all the way, bring back the days of Sunline demoralising a top class field, bring back the days of the fighting tiger Northerly staving off all challengers. Please bring us some stayers who are able to compete at the highest level again.
Friday, October 17, 2008
Caulfield Cup
The Caulfield Cup
If the Melbourne Cup is the race that stops a nation, then the Caulfield Cup is the race that stops 90% of the nation 17 days earlier. Always remembered for being the best horses race, the Caulfield Cup is as meaningful to rank & file punters as is the Melbourne Cup is to the once a year punter. The 2008 version as always brings together the best horses in Australia, coupled with the best from New Zealand, with a few European adventurers for good measure. It looks a great race on paper, barrier draws appeared to have really evened out the main winning chances, as we have become accustomed to, luck in running will play the most vital role.
The weather in Melbourne will be fine, the track will be dead, unfortunately irrigation has been again been used to "affect" the track. Hopefully by the first race this will not have any affect or bias on the results of any of the ten races at Caulfield, in particular the Cup.
There are more horses in race that cannot win, than have serious winning chances. This happens every year, the MRC want a capacity field, owners & trainers want their horse to run and who can blame them, the thrill of having a runner in the Caulfield Cup would fulfill most owners ultimate racing dream. Regrettably what this means, is that some serious winning hopefuls will not obtain the necessary luck to be able to win this prestigious event, with some horses with little or no winning hope, will simply get in the way of the good horses. And this is why the horse who obtains the best run, without interference, will win the 2008 Caulfield Cup.
Firstly let's attack who cannot win. Top weight Weekend Hussler has drawn extremely awkwardly in barrier 11, this is his first attempt at 2400m, he hasn't won beyond 1800m, so he will require every tiny little thing to go his way for him to win. From the barrier, he has to go forward, having never raced over the distance, he will be expecting a faster speed, and with no other known leader in the race, he may well even be forced to take up the running himself. Either way, he will use up plenty of petrol in the early stages, and will be a spent force when the others get serious at the 600m mark. No Weekend Hussler in the 2008 Caulfield Cup.
Prepost 2007 favourite Maldivian, who was scratched at the barrier, fronts up again in 2008, however his form this time around has not given supporters or punters a lot to become enthused about. In fact, his recent efforts have been very weak. From barrier 18, he will have to come across the field to get to the fence and lead early, he will pull fiercely and will use up all his energy in the initial 600m of the race. No Big Mal in 2008.
We then have to ask how & why a few others actually got into the race. Ice Chariot, Viewed, Fiumicino, Dolphin Jo, Riva San, Zagreb, Barbaricus, not to mention the emergencies, honestly have no winning chance, all they will do is get in the road of the cream. Yes, they qualified to gain a start under the rules, so they do deserve their moment of glory, let's hope they don't ruin the chances of another.
There are two European horses who have attained a start, neither of whom we can line up properly against the better Autralian & New Zealand horses. Mad Rush and All The Good will both require plenty of speed on, and they should get it, as there is always plenty of pace in a Caulfield Cup, 2008 will be no different. The big if is, have they settled in & acclimatised so they can perform at their peak? From experience, rarely do the European or Japanese perform unless they have had one feeler run before they peak. Both will run good races, doubt either can win first up in Australia.
New Zealand give us three realistic chances in the 2008 Caulfield Cup, or do they? Nom De Juere & Red Ruler quinellad the AJC Derby over 2400m in April, assuring both of a walk up start in the Caulfield Cup. How strong was that for? Considering the EI situation in Australia late 2007, many horses simply were not at their peak for the autumn carnival placing grave doubt on the form coming from it. Look at the Group 1 winners from the autumn, and only those who were EI free have gone on from there, most others have showed the form simply does not stand up. Both Nom De Jue & Red Ruler have failed to impress since the autumn, failing to win the major Group 1s in NZ. In saying that, both have undeniable chances in the 2008 Caulfield Cup, as the race is not strong, with Red Ruler from the inside obtaining a perfect run in transit. Unfortunately Nom De Jue has drawn 20, he will need everything to go his way to win. The third of the NZ contingent is the Steven McKee trained mare Boundless, doubtful she can beat Red Ruler, so happy to risk her.
Well, that doesn't leave us with too many reallistic chances, does it? 2007 winner Master O'Reilly, Turnbull Stakes victor Lottorio, 2007 runner up Douro Valley & the David Hayes trained master of the form reversal Guillotine. If someone had have told me 12 months ago Guillotine was a Caulfield Cup winner, I would have immediately signed them into the One Flew Over The Cuckoos Nest asylum. Would you have believed it? No, so let's leave him out as well.
The best guide to the Caulfield Cup has always been the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington a fornight before. Lottorio won well that day, sitting off the pace, then producing an exciting finishing burst that had Group 1 winner written all over it. He has an undeniable winning chance. However, he rises 1kg on that victory, plus the increase of 400m in distance, so there is a slight query there. He has drawn barrier 10, so will need luck to get scross to get a cosy run, a run that will be required to win a Caulfield Cup. Steven King is the man for that job, most experienced, happy to have him on anything I back at any time of the year, especially Cup time. Lottorio is in the race right up to his ears.
2007 runner up Douro Valley showed last week at Caulfield he is now fit and ready to show his best in the 2008 version by winning the WFA Caulfield Stakes. Ridden like the good thing he was, James Winks took the gelding straight to the front, to lead all the way over 200m. From barrier 2 tomorrow, Douro Valley will get the run of the race, and like last year, he will look the winner at the top of the straight and will run the 2400m right out. Douro valley a real hope of going one better in 2008.
2008 victor Master O'Reilly has only had two runs back from a spell to fit him for the 2008 assignment. However, he did have a mid year preparation, so only had a couple of weeks in the paddock and has been in work for as long as most of the others. His run behind Lottorio in the Turnbull was outstanding, meets him 1.5kg better and will strip much fitter for the outing. He has had two starts at Caulfield voer 2400m, both have resulted in wins. The only issues with him, is barrier 13 (he came from 6 last year to win after a cosy run and a great ride), and whether he is fit enough. His obvious target this year is the first Tuesday in November, however after his Turnbull effort, one simply cannot sell him short for 2008 Caulfield Cup, If Vlad Duric can get him across from the barrier one off the fence, then bring him into the race at the 800m, he is a serious winning chance.
Should be a terrific race, looking forward to it immensely, let's hope we don't have the drama we endured in 2007 in the lead up when Maldivian & Eskimo Queen were a late scratchings at the barrier. Our selections are:-
1 Master O'Reilly
2 Douro valley
3 Lottorio
4 Red Ruler
Best of luck to all those having a punt in the Caulfield Cup.
If the Melbourne Cup is the race that stops a nation, then the Caulfield Cup is the race that stops 90% of the nation 17 days earlier. Always remembered for being the best horses race, the Caulfield Cup is as meaningful to rank & file punters as is the Melbourne Cup is to the once a year punter. The 2008 version as always brings together the best horses in Australia, coupled with the best from New Zealand, with a few European adventurers for good measure. It looks a great race on paper, barrier draws appeared to have really evened out the main winning chances, as we have become accustomed to, luck in running will play the most vital role.
The weather in Melbourne will be fine, the track will be dead, unfortunately irrigation has been again been used to "affect" the track. Hopefully by the first race this will not have any affect or bias on the results of any of the ten races at Caulfield, in particular the Cup.
There are more horses in race that cannot win, than have serious winning chances. This happens every year, the MRC want a capacity field, owners & trainers want their horse to run and who can blame them, the thrill of having a runner in the Caulfield Cup would fulfill most owners ultimate racing dream. Regrettably what this means, is that some serious winning hopefuls will not obtain the necessary luck to be able to win this prestigious event, with some horses with little or no winning hope, will simply get in the way of the good horses. And this is why the horse who obtains the best run, without interference, will win the 2008 Caulfield Cup.
Firstly let's attack who cannot win. Top weight Weekend Hussler has drawn extremely awkwardly in barrier 11, this is his first attempt at 2400m, he hasn't won beyond 1800m, so he will require every tiny little thing to go his way for him to win. From the barrier, he has to go forward, having never raced over the distance, he will be expecting a faster speed, and with no other known leader in the race, he may well even be forced to take up the running himself. Either way, he will use up plenty of petrol in the early stages, and will be a spent force when the others get serious at the 600m mark. No Weekend Hussler in the 2008 Caulfield Cup.
Prepost 2007 favourite Maldivian, who was scratched at the barrier, fronts up again in 2008, however his form this time around has not given supporters or punters a lot to become enthused about. In fact, his recent efforts have been very weak. From barrier 18, he will have to come across the field to get to the fence and lead early, he will pull fiercely and will use up all his energy in the initial 600m of the race. No Big Mal in 2008.
We then have to ask how & why a few others actually got into the race. Ice Chariot, Viewed, Fiumicino, Dolphin Jo, Riva San, Zagreb, Barbaricus, not to mention the emergencies, honestly have no winning chance, all they will do is get in the road of the cream. Yes, they qualified to gain a start under the rules, so they do deserve their moment of glory, let's hope they don't ruin the chances of another.
There are two European horses who have attained a start, neither of whom we can line up properly against the better Autralian & New Zealand horses. Mad Rush and All The Good will both require plenty of speed on, and they should get it, as there is always plenty of pace in a Caulfield Cup, 2008 will be no different. The big if is, have they settled in & acclimatised so they can perform at their peak? From experience, rarely do the European or Japanese perform unless they have had one feeler run before they peak. Both will run good races, doubt either can win first up in Australia.
New Zealand give us three realistic chances in the 2008 Caulfield Cup, or do they? Nom De Juere & Red Ruler quinellad the AJC Derby over 2400m in April, assuring both of a walk up start in the Caulfield Cup. How strong was that for? Considering the EI situation in Australia late 2007, many horses simply were not at their peak for the autumn carnival placing grave doubt on the form coming from it. Look at the Group 1 winners from the autumn, and only those who were EI free have gone on from there, most others have showed the form simply does not stand up. Both Nom De Jue & Red Ruler have failed to impress since the autumn, failing to win the major Group 1s in NZ. In saying that, both have undeniable chances in the 2008 Caulfield Cup, as the race is not strong, with Red Ruler from the inside obtaining a perfect run in transit. Unfortunately Nom De Jue has drawn 20, he will need everything to go his way to win. The third of the NZ contingent is the Steven McKee trained mare Boundless, doubtful she can beat Red Ruler, so happy to risk her.
Well, that doesn't leave us with too many reallistic chances, does it? 2007 winner Master O'Reilly, Turnbull Stakes victor Lottorio, 2007 runner up Douro Valley & the David Hayes trained master of the form reversal Guillotine. If someone had have told me 12 months ago Guillotine was a Caulfield Cup winner, I would have immediately signed them into the One Flew Over The Cuckoos Nest asylum. Would you have believed it? No, so let's leave him out as well.
The best guide to the Caulfield Cup has always been the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington a fornight before. Lottorio won well that day, sitting off the pace, then producing an exciting finishing burst that had Group 1 winner written all over it. He has an undeniable winning chance. However, he rises 1kg on that victory, plus the increase of 400m in distance, so there is a slight query there. He has drawn barrier 10, so will need luck to get scross to get a cosy run, a run that will be required to win a Caulfield Cup. Steven King is the man for that job, most experienced, happy to have him on anything I back at any time of the year, especially Cup time. Lottorio is in the race right up to his ears.
2007 runner up Douro Valley showed last week at Caulfield he is now fit and ready to show his best in the 2008 version by winning the WFA Caulfield Stakes. Ridden like the good thing he was, James Winks took the gelding straight to the front, to lead all the way over 200m. From barrier 2 tomorrow, Douro Valley will get the run of the race, and like last year, he will look the winner at the top of the straight and will run the 2400m right out. Douro valley a real hope of going one better in 2008.
2008 victor Master O'Reilly has only had two runs back from a spell to fit him for the 2008 assignment. However, he did have a mid year preparation, so only had a couple of weeks in the paddock and has been in work for as long as most of the others. His run behind Lottorio in the Turnbull was outstanding, meets him 1.5kg better and will strip much fitter for the outing. He has had two starts at Caulfield voer 2400m, both have resulted in wins. The only issues with him, is barrier 13 (he came from 6 last year to win after a cosy run and a great ride), and whether he is fit enough. His obvious target this year is the first Tuesday in November, however after his Turnbull effort, one simply cannot sell him short for 2008 Caulfield Cup, If Vlad Duric can get him across from the barrier one off the fence, then bring him into the race at the 800m, he is a serious winning chance.
Should be a terrific race, looking forward to it immensely, let's hope we don't have the drama we endured in 2007 in the lead up when Maldivian & Eskimo Queen were a late scratchings at the barrier. Our selections are:-
1 Master O'Reilly
2 Douro valley
3 Lottorio
4 Red Ruler
Best of luck to all those having a punt in the Caulfield Cup.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Saturday Winners
The Spring racing is really warming up now and with it the winners are starting to flow freely once again. It was a cold, dim, an almost puntless winter. However with all the decent horses back in work and racing at their peak, wet tracks all but obliterated from our memories, plus form lines holding up across the country, we can expect nice profits now from here until the end of March at least.
Three selections yesterday for three winners, the best being Deacon at Eagle Farm. Regrettably, all were very short, nevertheless, we rebuild our bank slowly after the winter losses. Our other two winners yesterday were at Rosehill Gardens in the shape of the unbeaten Kiloton & Charming Rogue. Both are heading toward an Epsom handicap start, obviously both can't win, although both should be competitive. The Epsom is shaping as an extremely good race this year, with Ashikaga and several other up and comers likely starters. Should be a terrific race.
Last Saturday the good thing of the day in Light Vision duely saluted at top fluctuation of $3.20. So we are certainly back in form just in time for the better spring races that lay ahead.
Our horses to follow are also firing, with Bon Hoffa winning last Saturday at Caulfield at better than $15 around the country. So again, plenty of winners flowing now the better horses and better tracks are around.
If you would like to be a part of all the winners, please contact us here at PASS passelections@bigpond.com
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Three selections yesterday for three winners, the best being Deacon at Eagle Farm. Regrettably, all were very short, nevertheless, we rebuild our bank slowly after the winter losses. Our other two winners yesterday were at Rosehill Gardens in the shape of the unbeaten Kiloton & Charming Rogue. Both are heading toward an Epsom handicap start, obviously both can't win, although both should be competitive. The Epsom is shaping as an extremely good race this year, with Ashikaga and several other up and comers likely starters. Should be a terrific race.
Last Saturday the good thing of the day in Light Vision duely saluted at top fluctuation of $3.20. So we are certainly back in form just in time for the better spring races that lay ahead.
Our horses to follow are also firing, with Bon Hoffa winning last Saturday at Caulfield at better than $15 around the country. So again, plenty of winners flowing now the better horses and better tracks are around.
If you would like to be a part of all the winners, please contact us here at PASS passelections@bigpond.com
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Monday, August 18, 2008
The Spring Is Finally Here
When we see the running of the J J Liston Stakes, it is all systems go for punters to take the on ramp toward the upcoming Spring Carnival of racing.
How good is Light Fantastic? The son of Danehill Dancer extended his unbeaten run to 5 on Saturday with his win the Liston and despite the prescence of Weekend Hustler, Light Fantastic showed he is a realistic contender for all the major WFA spring races. His main aim is the Cox Plate, the only concern with him being competitive in the race is lack of Moonee Valley experience. However, the Hustler is in the same boat there. The Feehan Stakes at the Valley in September may be an ideal race for both to become more acquainted with the tight turning hallowed turf where Australia's top WFA race is held each and every year.
One of the better runs at Caulfield on Saturday came from promising middle distance performer Light Vision. He won comfortably over 1600m, a distance well short of his best, however defeated plenty of Spring hopefuls, so should not be taken lightly through the coming months. He will be well trained and placed by Robert Smerdon, Light Vision is definitely one to follow.
Our major selection on Saturday came up at Belmont in the shape of Key Biscuit. He was desparately unlucky and should have won. He was in front a stride before the line, and in front a stride after the line, however Classic Lad got his nose down at the precise moment to nail the finish. This was after coming from a long way back, circling the field and running home strongly, so Key Biscuit will pay to follow, he will redeem himself next time out. Elliotto was also mentioned in our Saturday emails and for the second successive week saluted for our members at good odds of $2.80.
So with the Spring now upon us, heaps of winners will flowing as we approach the most profitable time of the year.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
How good is Light Fantastic? The son of Danehill Dancer extended his unbeaten run to 5 on Saturday with his win the Liston and despite the prescence of Weekend Hustler, Light Fantastic showed he is a realistic contender for all the major WFA spring races. His main aim is the Cox Plate, the only concern with him being competitive in the race is lack of Moonee Valley experience. However, the Hustler is in the same boat there. The Feehan Stakes at the Valley in September may be an ideal race for both to become more acquainted with the tight turning hallowed turf where Australia's top WFA race is held each and every year.
One of the better runs at Caulfield on Saturday came from promising middle distance performer Light Vision. He won comfortably over 1600m, a distance well short of his best, however defeated plenty of Spring hopefuls, so should not be taken lightly through the coming months. He will be well trained and placed by Robert Smerdon, Light Vision is definitely one to follow.
Our major selection on Saturday came up at Belmont in the shape of Key Biscuit. He was desparately unlucky and should have won. He was in front a stride before the line, and in front a stride after the line, however Classic Lad got his nose down at the precise moment to nail the finish. This was after coming from a long way back, circling the field and running home strongly, so Key Biscuit will pay to follow, he will redeem himself next time out. Elliotto was also mentioned in our Saturday emails and for the second successive week saluted for our members at good odds of $2.80.
So with the Spring now upon us, heaps of winners will flowing as we approach the most profitable time of the year.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Profitable Season For PASS Members
With the 2007/2008 racing season ending on July 31 the final results for the number one selections were:-
Selections 108
Winners 46
Winning Strike Rate 42.59%
Average Winning Price $2.78
POI 18.41%
So for the second successive season, the top PASS selections have shown considerable profit for the members. Unfortunately we finished the year very slowly, with an 8 bet losing sequence, which certainly affected the overall figures. Winter is always a bad time of year to be punting, with lesser quality horses, rain affected tracks along with plenty of the better class jockeys having holidays.
Nevertheless, the pressure is on once again to maintain profit levels for our members in 2008/2009. We began extremely well yesterday, when the top selection Burdekin Blues saluted easily at Eagle Farm, while the other tip Elliotto at Belmont was also victorious.
If you would like to become a member, please contact us here passelection@bigpond.com and we will assist you to show a profit punting on Australian gallops.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Selections 108
Winners 46
Winning Strike Rate 42.59%
Average Winning Price $2.78
POI 18.41%
So for the second successive season, the top PASS selections have shown considerable profit for the members. Unfortunately we finished the year very slowly, with an 8 bet losing sequence, which certainly affected the overall figures. Winter is always a bad time of year to be punting, with lesser quality horses, rain affected tracks along with plenty of the better class jockeys having holidays.
Nevertheless, the pressure is on once again to maintain profit levels for our members in 2008/2009. We began extremely well yesterday, when the top selection Burdekin Blues saluted easily at Eagle Farm, while the other tip Elliotto at Belmont was also victorious.
If you would like to become a member, please contact us here passelection@bigpond.com and we will assist you to show a profit punting on Australian gallops.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Monday, May 19, 2008
McMahon Lands Helideck Safely for PASS Members
Recently returned from a shoulder injury he may be, however young jockey Ric McMahon rode the perfect race to score a sensational win on Helideck in the major sprint at Doomben on Saturday afternoon. PASS memebers were informed in their Saturday morning email that Helideck was one of the best bets around the country that afternoon. He went on to win by over 2 lengths, paying top tote of $5.10, with SP at $5. However shrewd punters were able to secure fixed odds earlier in the day of $5.50 & even $6 with Sportsbet. So another very successful day for PASS members. Helideck now will be one of the strong fancies for the Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap to be run in 3 weeks at Eagle Farm.
The race was marred by a shocking fall at the 250m mark when the Bart Cummings trained Antidotes came to grief along with Group 1 winning hoop Luke Nolen. The fall looked far worse than Nolen's injuries have evolved, as Nolen only requires palate surgery as well as a full knee reconstruction. This is a far better outcome than it appeared soon after the fall on Saturday where Nolen lay unconscious on the turf for over 5 minutes. Our best wishes for a speedy recovery to Luke from all here at PASS & Gallopers.
The PASS special on Saturday was Viewed in the Group 1 Doomben Cup, however the Bart Cumming trained 4yo entire got too far out fo his ground, and despite making up many, many lengths in the straight was beaten out of a place by the Michael Moroney trained Sarerra. Not too many horses made up a lot of ground on Saturday, so Viewed will be better suited at Eagle Farm over the 2400m of the P J O'Shea Stakes & Brisbane Cup.
With the Brisbane winter carnival now in full swing, there is alwasy plenty of value to be found with winners in this period. We will endeavour to find a few more over comings weeks at Doomben on 10,000 day as well as at headquarters when the carnival shifts to Eagle Farm.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
The race was marred by a shocking fall at the 250m mark when the Bart Cummings trained Antidotes came to grief along with Group 1 winning hoop Luke Nolen. The fall looked far worse than Nolen's injuries have evolved, as Nolen only requires palate surgery as well as a full knee reconstruction. This is a far better outcome than it appeared soon after the fall on Saturday where Nolen lay unconscious on the turf for over 5 minutes. Our best wishes for a speedy recovery to Luke from all here at PASS & Gallopers.
The PASS special on Saturday was Viewed in the Group 1 Doomben Cup, however the Bart Cumming trained 4yo entire got too far out fo his ground, and despite making up many, many lengths in the straight was beaten out of a place by the Michael Moroney trained Sarerra. Not too many horses made up a lot of ground on Saturday, so Viewed will be better suited at Eagle Farm over the 2400m of the P J O'Shea Stakes & Brisbane Cup.
With the Brisbane winter carnival now in full swing, there is alwasy plenty of value to be found with winners in this period. We will endeavour to find a few more over comings weeks at Doomben on 10,000 day as well as at headquarters when the carnival shifts to Eagle Farm.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Thursday, May 15, 2008
A Magical Day for PASS Members
It was certainly a magical day for PASS members yesteday after Magical Dane saluted at Balaklava. He looked a class above his rivals and was given out as the good thing of the day in our emails yesterday morning. Magical Dane did not let us down, as predicted jumping straight to the front as soon as the gates opened and although challenged in the middle stages was never headed to go on to win clearly and convincingly.
The bookies were quite generous betting $3.00 top fluctuation although he did firm in the market to start at $2.40. Top tote was $2.70 on Super TAB, with $2.40 the dividend on the other two totes. The win of Magical Dane definitely removes all memories of the horror run we endured through March & April where we found only 1 winner in 8 selections. The last two good things have now won easily so we are certainly back on track.
We have now produced exactly 100 selections this racing season for our members, resulting in a total of 46 winners at an Average Winning Price of $2.78 which gives us an overall POI of 27.88% using level stakes.
To clarify a pertinent point about our statistics, to determine AWP we use the average price of the three totes in Australia. We do not use top tote exclusvely, nor do we use top fluctuation exclusively as either which would incorrectly raise the AWP to a disproportionate level, making the statistics look far better than they actually are. Many tipping services & ratings programmers fudge these figures by using a higher dividend than most punters are able to obtain. For example, yesterday, the three tote divis for Magical Dane were $2.70, $2.40 & $2.40. The average of the three equates to $2.50, and that is the price which appears on our results page of the web site.
http://www.gallopers.com.au/misc/PASSresults0708.html
The other pertinent point about the statistics is that we only select one horse per race. So our Winning Strike Rate published is exactly that, the number of winners compared with the number of selections. There are plenty of services out there who tell all and sundry about how many winners they select, boasting massive WSR's without also offering the information they made 4 or 5 selections in the one race.
So if you are serious about winning on the punt, then PASS is clearly the most transparent & profitable service to be associated with. If you would like to be part of the winners, please contact us at passelection@bigpond.com so we can assist to make a profit from punting.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
The bookies were quite generous betting $3.00 top fluctuation although he did firm in the market to start at $2.40. Top tote was $2.70 on Super TAB, with $2.40 the dividend on the other two totes. The win of Magical Dane definitely removes all memories of the horror run we endured through March & April where we found only 1 winner in 8 selections. The last two good things have now won easily so we are certainly back on track.
We have now produced exactly 100 selections this racing season for our members, resulting in a total of 46 winners at an Average Winning Price of $2.78 which gives us an overall POI of 27.88% using level stakes.
To clarify a pertinent point about our statistics, to determine AWP we use the average price of the three totes in Australia. We do not use top tote exclusvely, nor do we use top fluctuation exclusively as either which would incorrectly raise the AWP to a disproportionate level, making the statistics look far better than they actually are. Many tipping services & ratings programmers fudge these figures by using a higher dividend than most punters are able to obtain. For example, yesterday, the three tote divis for Magical Dane were $2.70, $2.40 & $2.40. The average of the three equates to $2.50, and that is the price which appears on our results page of the web site.
http://www.gallopers.com.au/misc/PASSresults0708.html
The other pertinent point about the statistics is that we only select one horse per race. So our Winning Strike Rate published is exactly that, the number of winners compared with the number of selections. There are plenty of services out there who tell all and sundry about how many winners they select, boasting massive WSR's without also offering the information they made 4 or 5 selections in the one race.
So if you are serious about winning on the punt, then PASS is clearly the most transparent & profitable service to be associated with. If you would like to be part of the winners, please contact us at passelection@bigpond.com so we can assist to make a profit from punting.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Sunday, May 11, 2008
Update
Well, it's been a long time since our last post, much longer than we realised. After enduring all the problems associated with the EI outbreak, massive loss of business both through horse sales & agistment opportunities, we are finally getting back on our feet. We currently have 15 agisters here at Massie Lodge, which is a great improvement on the 4 we had throughout EI. Those 4 didn't go anywhere near covering our costs, however we are slowly getting back to normal, albeit being extremely busy.
The only thing that kept us going throughout the outbreak was the profit made via punting, without it, we would have gone broke for sure and certain. In saying that, punting issues are changing rapidly at present, now imperative the punter keeps abreast of these issues on a weekly basis. We will endeavour to update this blog on a much more regular basis from here on in.
PASS is travelling along extremely well with a current Winning Strike Rate of 45.45%. The Average Winning Price is $2.79, giving us a POI of over 26%. There has been a real hiccup over the last 6 weeks or so, which has seen the WSR & POI drop considerably, however we are confident we have overcome a few little hurdles we experienced and are now well & truely back on track.
Yesterday our sepcial of the day was Royal Discretion in the Hawkesbury Guineas. A patient ride by Nash Rawiller saw the Gai Waterhouse 3yo gelding kick clear in the straight without ever looking like being beaten. Top tote was $2.50, bookies offered a little better on track which was terrific odds about a good thing. Royal Discretion broke a long run of outs for us, only 1 other winner from our previous 8 specials, and that winner was a 2s on shot.
We have a new email address for those interested in contacting us, as the old Austarnet one continually played up:-
mailto:passelection@bigpond.com
So please feel free to let us know if you would like to be part of the winning team here at PASS, our profits will continue and should increase from here on in. We will also provide more previews and reviews than we have over the past 6 months, and will also have plenty of horses to follow for punters to profit from. We will avoid knowingly selecting odds on favourites, we will always endeavour to inform members of runners who will provide reasonable odds from which punters are able to profit.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
The only thing that kept us going throughout the outbreak was the profit made via punting, without it, we would have gone broke for sure and certain. In saying that, punting issues are changing rapidly at present, now imperative the punter keeps abreast of these issues on a weekly basis. We will endeavour to update this blog on a much more regular basis from here on in.
PASS is travelling along extremely well with a current Winning Strike Rate of 45.45%. The Average Winning Price is $2.79, giving us a POI of over 26%. There has been a real hiccup over the last 6 weeks or so, which has seen the WSR & POI drop considerably, however we are confident we have overcome a few little hurdles we experienced and are now well & truely back on track.
Yesterday our sepcial of the day was Royal Discretion in the Hawkesbury Guineas. A patient ride by Nash Rawiller saw the Gai Waterhouse 3yo gelding kick clear in the straight without ever looking like being beaten. Top tote was $2.50, bookies offered a little better on track which was terrific odds about a good thing. Royal Discretion broke a long run of outs for us, only 1 other winner from our previous 8 specials, and that winner was a 2s on shot.
We have a new email address for those interested in contacting us, as the old Austarnet one continually played up:-
mailto:passelection@bigpond.com
So please feel free to let us know if you would like to be part of the winning team here at PASS, our profits will continue and should increase from here on in. We will also provide more previews and reviews than we have over the past 6 months, and will also have plenty of horses to follow for punters to profit from. We will avoid knowingly selecting odds on favourites, we will always endeavour to inform members of runners who will provide reasonable odds from which punters are able to profit.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
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