2008 WS Cox Plate

The time honoured W S Cox Plate is always remembered in Australian racing annuls as the race the best horse in the country wins. Any thoroughbred with ambitions of claiming the number 1 title simply has to have a Cox Plate victory in his resume or serious doubts are caste upon a legitimate claim to fame. All the greats have won the race, run on a saucer shaped track a short journey north east of the city of Melbourne in Victoria. Though the track is less than ideal to give every horse the best winning opportunity, somehow, greatness does ebb to the surface most years for the best horse to prove victorious.

In years gone by there have also been some outstanding clashes between similarly great race horses. These head to head clashes have been immortalised adding to the excitement of the race. Nevertheless, harsh reality has struck us all between the eyes for the 2008 version of the champion's race, with what has to be said a less than quality field lining up tomorrow afternoon. Honestly, if you had read all the names of the starters out a month ago, hailing each one a winner of the Cox Plate, how many would you have thought had the ability to be there on race day, let alone win the great race? As little as a month ago, only two entrants were even thought of as being aimed at the race, and they are the Kiwi mare Princess Coup along with the best 3yo filly in NSW Samantha Miss. Add the Lloyd Williams trained Zipping, and possibly the completely out of form Maldivian I doubt any of the others were remote outsiders to make the field. However the lack of depth simply proves the arguement that Australian middle distance & staying stocks are badly depleted in this era and steps need to be taken immediately to rectify the situation. Yes, possibly this is the best field of 12 that could have been assembled, however that does not mean the race meets the reverence and esteem of previous years. In fact, we believe the 2008 version is the weakest, certainly in the modern era, more likely the weakest of all time. A very sad indictment on such a great race.

Nevertheless, one horse will indeed become part of the legendary history of Cox Plate winners tomorrow afternoon, and seriously, not too many of the starters deserve such a high accolade. In fact, in a few years time we will look back and wonder how some of the horses even got into the field. Princess Coup, Samantha Miss both deserve their position and both also deserve to be given a great winning chance. Zipping on his best form would be a worthy Cox Plate placegetter, so striking such a weak lot this year places him in an excellent winning position. Now, unless there is a massive form reversal from one of the other runners, or the former 3 strike extreme bad luck, that is your race. We have followed Master O'Reilly's career from the early days, backing him at almost every one of his starts. He is a great favourite of ours especially after his Caulfield Cup victory last year. However, not even completely biased minds such as ours could ever contemplate the Master being a Cox plate champion, despite the weakness of this years field.

Firstly, we'll discount those who simply cannot win. Raheeb was beaten a minute in the Epsom and should not be in the field, Gallant Tess, a fine mare, however she is simply not up to a Cox Plate. It would take a form reversal of a most extreme course to believe Sirmione could possible figure in the finish. Zarita unfortunately for trainer Pat Hyland in a similar boat. Cest La Guerre struggled to get past Duoro Valley in the Caulfield Stakes and he finished distanced last week in the Caulfield Cup, impossible to consider Cest La Guerre as a winning hope. It hurts to say it, however Master O'Reilly is out of his depth in a true Cox Plate, this year may be different, however it is difficult to see him figuring in the finish. His aim for 2008 has always been the Melbourne Cup, and that is where his future lies.

Now, let's look at how the race will be run. Big Maldivian has blinkers on for the first time tomorrow in an attempt to sharpen him up. And that the blinkers will most definitely do, and if he manoeuvres himself with the aplomb to get out of the barriers unscathed and on equal terms, then he will shoot straight to the front and lead easily. Regrettably for likable trainer Mark Kavanagh, big Mal will be gone at the school near the 800m mark and will be a sitting shot for the run on horses. The Gai Waterhouse trained Epsom Handicap victor Thesio will also begin well from the outside barrier and will come across the face of the field to sit second, either outside Maldivian or in behind him depending on how quick the blinkers make Mal go. It is impossible to imagine Thesio being in the finish of a Cox Plate, however, he does have a rank outside place hope this year, as he will be on top of the speed and will fight on in the straight. The key to the race is where the main hopes position up in the run. From barrier 2 Samantha Miss has to race closer than she has in her Sydney victories, possibly 3rd or 4th on the fence with such a fast pace. Princess Coup & Zipping always get a long way back, and considering the fast pace, then that should be the case again tomorrow. They will get the opportunity to run on however as they have the ability and more quality than their opponents in the race. So long as they are not more than 6-8 lengths from the leaders coming to the 800m, then they should be able to get home over the top of most of them.

So, we've discounted the majority of the field as winning hopes, we are now left with Samantha Miss, Princess Coup, Zipping and the Mick Price trained Alimosa. Three of these are of the fairer sex, and mares don't win Cox Plates unless they are outstanding, whilst only one 3yo filly has ever won the race. So what does this mean, Zipping is a certainty? Well, if the real Zipping fronts up at Moonee Valley tomorrow, that may well be the case, however there a couple of him, and he will need to be right on his metal to salute. Everything will have to go his way, he will have to have a cosy run, with cover, get clear by the school in plenty of time to wind up, then have an unchequered passage over the final 600m to figure in the finish. Hate to say it, but it certainly looks like a females race in 2008. It is doubtful Alimosa has the class to win, despite an emphatic victory in the Toorak handicap. That form rarely stands up in a Cox Plate, although this is an unusual year.

Down to the nitty gritty. Princess Coup has taken all before her in New Zealand this year. She has beaten the best, and her form in Australia this time last year was also outstanding and right up with the best we could put together. She has the class to win, the only minor concern is how far back she will get, and whether she too can secure a clear run from the 800m. If all goes well, she will run either first or second. Her travel arrangements have been less than ideal for such a big race, and she only arrived in Australia yesterday, so that in itself has to be a query, however she has travelled here before, hopefully nothing has gone awry. Samantha Miss as stated should race closer to the pace tomorrow, she has the services of leading Group 1 jockey Glen Boss, has no weight and is definitely the horse with the most potential in the race. This time next year, we may well be saying she is the best horse in the country, however, we don't have a crystal ball to see if that will be the case.

When the business end of the race starts at the school, Maldivian will tire, giving Thesio the unenviable task of taking the lead and being left a sitting shot. As Maldivian tires out of the race Samantha Miss will ease into the race nicely with a trail behind Thesio, then Boss will shoot her to the front as the field wheels into the short straight. Princess Coup, Alimosa & Zipping will all have taken off out wide at the 800m and will have to be within 2 lengths of the filly on the turn to beat her with her light weight. They will try valiantly, but in vain. Samantha Miss will become only the second filly in history to win a Cox Plate. Why? Because she is the best horse in the field, she will get the best run from a good barrier, has the feather weight to carry and as intimated earlier, hindsight being the wonderful thing that it is, in 12 months time she will be hailed as the best horse in Australia. In any normal Cox Plate year, a 3yo filly would have no winning hope, this year she does and will.

Our selections:-

1 Samanatha Miss
2 Princess Coup
3 Zipping
4 Thesio

Best of luck to everyone having a punt on the race. Hopefully it will be a clean affair with every horse obtaining every opportunity to win.