Derby Day Preview

Derby Day Preview

At long last, the great day has arrived. After a 12 month wait, the day every hardened punters salivates about is now only one sleep away, Derby Day at Flemington race course in Melbourne. This meeting has long been regarded as the best all round meeting held in Australia every year on the first day of the Melbourne Cup carnival. It has something for every taste, a new season 2yo race, an open 1200m sprint, the two major lead ups to the big one on Tuesday next, the major lead up to the Oaks run on Thursday, plus 3 races for the 3yos including the Blue Ribband, the VRC Derby. As always, the major talking point is the track and how it will play. Currently, mid afternoon Friday, the track is a dead (4), showers are forecast, however the most critical issue is the irrigation that has been deliberately sprayed onto the racing surface to take the sting out of the ground. Following only 3mm of actual rainfall this week, a massive 30mm of irrigation has been poured onto the track, thus with the rail back in the normal position, this could mean a big bias for punters to account for before placing bets. There is an excellent chance the track will play to an on pace on fence bias, as it usually does on Derby day. Put this together with the fact that the main form lines coming into the meeting derive from Caulfield two weeks ago where virtually no horse could make ground from the rear in the straight, then punters are faced with a real conundrum. The straight races as usual should play to the outside fence, therefore wide barriers will be of little consequence, in fact, they should be an advantage.

Let's look at the main races individually, we'll leave the 2yo event to those who have a far better knowledge & prowess of them than we could ever admit to:-

Carbine Club Stakes - looks a strong race for the 3yos this year, after what has been a few disappointing years for the race. There are plenty of chances despite the smallish field with Millbank, Caymans, Dr Doutes, Trustus & Tameer all having undeniable chances. We'll stick our neck out and select a last start maiden winner jumping to a Group 3 race, a feat in winning which is rarely achieved. Nevertheless, Grand Couture signalled in winning his latest outing at Bendigo that a city win was certainly within his grasp defeating the older horses in that maiden. From the astute Lee Freedman yard who place their horses with aplomb, he is up to this race without doubt following his 4 length victory over the 1400m last time. This followed a luckless second at Ballarat on that dubiously biased track where he was one of the only horses to make ground from the rear all day. Grand Couture is a gelding with plenty of promise and will give this race a real shake tomorrow. We doubt Millbank can figure in the finish, he fell in at Moonee Valley last Saturday, Caymans & Dr Doutes the hardest to beat.

Saab Quality (formerly Hotham Handicap) - Last chance Stakes for these to qualify for the big one on Tuesday, winning gains automatic entry, the rest will struggle to make the field. We have been following Light Vision for over 12 months now with great success. He is a most consistent horse and rarely puts in a poor one. Last start in the Geelong Cup his run had to be seen to be believed. He sat 3 and 4 wide the entire trip, then had the audacity to hit the front on straightening, only to fold under pressure over the final 150m. He still ran 4th, a Herculean performance beaten just on 2 lengths by Bauer who has plenty of admirers for the Melbourne Cup. If Light Vision gets into the field, then Bauer will not beat him on Tuesday. However Light Vision has to win the Saab to get into the Cup field. This he should achieve without too much fuss. How unlucky is Newport, win the time honoured Metropolitan, yet cannot even make it into the Caulfield Cup field, let alone the Melbourne Cup. In days gone by, Metrop winners were amongst the favourites in both big events, alas, no more. Newport has a great chance tomorrow. Plenty of money for Largo Lad today, so he is also expected to run a good race, field falls away dramatically from there, and you could not imagine in your wildest dreams a Cup winner coming from the remainder.

Wakeful Stakes - The 3yo fillies final lead up to the Oaks, the winner usually coming from this event. Very tough affair, nothing jumps out and grabs you, we could have 5-6 picks and miss a placegetter. Be very wary of the Caulfield bias from two weeks ago in this event, where Estee won over 2000m. Some of her opponents got a long way back and simply could make up the ground so we could see a form reversal or two here. For the record only, Poco Gusto to improve, Estee an undeniable chance, as are Miss Scarletti & Sparks Fly.

Coolmore (formerly the Ascot Vale Stakes) - The 3yos get another chance to shine in a Group 1 here this time over the straight 1200m. If times account for anything, then Northern Meteor is a living certainty. He has broken track records at Canterbury & Royal Randwick at his last two starts, the most recent a 5 length drubbing of a Group 3 field of 3yos. If he handles the straight track, then the race is as good as over, the others are simply lining up for the minor share of the prizes. Wilander beat Lucky Secret (who has won since) at Caulfield last start, he must have a good chance, as does the unbeaten Fist Of Fury, although he has been racing inferior opposition. Hayes brings Von Costa De Hero back from the 1600m of the Guineas for this, he is no Weekend Hussler, simply cannot win. The race falls away after this, with last start Brisbane winner on a slow track Portland the best of a mediocre bunch. Northern Meteor looks a good thing, Wilander a moral quinella.

MacKinnon Stakes - As with all the WFA races this spring, this race looks down on quality & depth, nevertheless, we are here to find a winner, not complain about the mediocrity in middle distance events in Australia. There are only a handful of chances, with massive form reversals required for most to win. Barbaricus ran a magnificent third in the Caulfield Cup, sitting wide then leading and doing all the hard work in the run. Again, his run may have been flattered due to the bias that day, however if he puts in like that again tomorrow, then he will go very close to winning. Princess Coup has a great chance, this race is usually reserved for the unlucky runner of the Cox Plate, and she got too far back and was poorly ridden that day. She is in the MacKinnon up to her ears. If Lottorio runs as he did in the Turnbull here a month ago, then he will almost win the race. He simply wasn't up to the Caulfield Cup, this might be his race. The only other possible winning hope is Red Ruler, however he had something amiss in the Caulfield Cup, and it is doubtful he could recover in a fortnight from that hard run, however he is an exotic hope. Tough race, maybe take quinellas and trifectas around the main 4.

VRC Derby - Already plenty written and spoken about this race. However, take out Whobegotyou, and what do we have? A bunch of mediocre 3yos given the opportunity to win a Group 1. If there is pace on & Whobegotyou runs the 2500m okay, and there is no on pace bias, then he is simply the best thing in a Derby since Mahogany back in the early 90s. The others won't get within the width of the Yarra of him, the race is as good as over. Carnero fired up badly with the blinkers on first time last start, Rawiller replaced by Shane Dye tomorrow, he could improve dramatically, especially over the 2500m which he has been looking for all spring. He is the only danger to Whobegotyou as long as he settles all right. Pre Eminence led on the leader bias at Caulfield last start, he will lead again, hopefully setting up a good speed which will suit the formerly mentioned two. He cannot however win a Derby unless the track is again biased toward front runners.

Myer Classic - Group 1 for fillies & mares, Yukko. An absolute lottery, simply throw into a hat the 16 names, and draw them out, as good a chance as any of selecting the winner. I don't even know where to start, preferably something drawn an inside barrier that will sit just off the speed, 3rd or 4th on the fence, that one will win.

Salinger Stakes - This used to be the crack sprint of the carnival and a Group 1 race, how times have changed. All things being equal, Sunburnt Land should win. He is a model of consistency, taken on and beaten everything thrown at him thus far, has drawn the middle so he can either go inside or out depending on where jockey Chris Symons chooses, he is the one to beat. Plenty of other chances, Nuclear Medicine will run a very good race, as will Swick who always goes well down the straight at his home track. Hot Danish, Biscayne Bay and Bon Hoffa the other hopes.

Well, there you have it, a complete run down on all the main races for tomorrow. Seriously, we suggest you watch the first 2-3 races to work out if there is or isn't any track bias. Watch prevailing weather conditions, look for those drawn out in the straight races, and avoid wide barriers in the non straight races. Best of luck to everyone having a punt on Derby day. We will send out our usual email to members in the morning with the best bets of the day.