Caulfield Cup

The Caulfield Cup

If the Melbourne Cup is the race that stops a nation, then the Caulfield Cup is the race that stops 90% of the nation 17 days earlier. Always remembered for being the best horses race, the Caulfield Cup is as meaningful to rank & file punters as is the Melbourne Cup is to the once a year punter. The 2008 version as always brings together the best horses in Australia, coupled with the best from New Zealand, with a few European adventurers for good measure. It looks a great race on paper, barrier draws appeared to have really evened out the main winning chances, as we have become accustomed to, luck in running will play the most vital role.

The weather in Melbourne will be fine, the track will be dead, unfortunately irrigation has been again been used to "affect" the track. Hopefully by the first race this will not have any affect or bias on the results of any of the ten races at Caulfield, in particular the Cup.

There are more horses in race that cannot win, than have serious winning chances. This happens every year, the MRC want a capacity field, owners & trainers want their horse to run and who can blame them, the thrill of having a runner in the Caulfield Cup would fulfill most owners ultimate racing dream. Regrettably what this means, is that some serious winning hopefuls will not obtain the necessary luck to be able to win this prestigious event, with some horses with little or no winning hope, will simply get in the way of the good horses. And this is why the horse who obtains the best run, without interference, will win the 2008 Caulfield Cup.

Firstly let's attack who cannot win. Top weight Weekend Hussler has drawn extremely awkwardly in barrier 11, this is his first attempt at 2400m, he hasn't won beyond 1800m, so he will require every tiny little thing to go his way for him to win. From the barrier, he has to go forward, having never raced over the distance, he will be expecting a faster speed, and with no other known leader in the race, he may well even be forced to take up the running himself. Either way, he will use up plenty of petrol in the early stages, and will be a spent force when the others get serious at the 600m mark. No Weekend Hussler in the 2008 Caulfield Cup.

Prepost 2007 favourite Maldivian, who was scratched at the barrier, fronts up again in 2008, however his form this time around has not given supporters or punters a lot to become enthused about. In fact, his recent efforts have been very weak. From barrier 18, he will have to come across the field to get to the fence and lead early, he will pull fiercely and will use up all his energy in the initial 600m of the race. No Big Mal in 2008.

We then have to ask how & why a few others actually got into the race. Ice Chariot, Viewed, Fiumicino, Dolphin Jo, Riva San, Zagreb, Barbaricus, not to mention the emergencies, honestly have no winning chance, all they will do is get in the road of the cream. Yes, they qualified to gain a start under the rules, so they do deserve their moment of glory, let's hope they don't ruin the chances of another.

There are two European horses who have attained a start, neither of whom we can line up properly against the better Autralian & New Zealand horses. Mad Rush and All The Good will both require plenty of speed on, and they should get it, as there is always plenty of pace in a Caulfield Cup, 2008 will be no different. The big if is, have they settled in & acclimatised so they can perform at their peak? From experience, rarely do the European or Japanese perform unless they have had one feeler run before they peak. Both will run good races, doubt either can win first up in Australia.

New Zealand give us three realistic chances in the 2008 Caulfield Cup, or do they? Nom De Juere & Red Ruler quinellad the AJC Derby over 2400m in April, assuring both of a walk up start in the Caulfield Cup. How strong was that for? Considering the EI situation in Australia late 2007, many horses simply were not at their peak for the autumn carnival placing grave doubt on the form coming from it. Look at the Group 1 winners from the autumn, and only those who were EI free have gone on from there, most others have showed the form simply does not stand up. Both Nom De Jue & Red Ruler have failed to impress since the autumn, failing to win the major Group 1s in NZ. In saying that, both have undeniable chances in the 2008 Caulfield Cup, as the race is not strong, with Red Ruler from the inside obtaining a perfect run in transit. Unfortunately Nom De Jue has drawn 20, he will need everything to go his way to win. The third of the NZ contingent is the Steven McKee trained mare Boundless, doubtful she can beat Red Ruler, so happy to risk her.

Well, that doesn't leave us with too many reallistic chances, does it? 2007 winner Master O'Reilly, Turnbull Stakes victor Lottorio, 2007 runner up Douro Valley & the David Hayes trained master of the form reversal Guillotine. If someone had have told me 12 months ago Guillotine was a Caulfield Cup winner, I would have immediately signed them into the One Flew Over The Cuckoos Nest asylum. Would you have believed it? No, so let's leave him out as well.

The best guide to the Caulfield Cup has always been the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington a fornight before. Lottorio won well that day, sitting off the pace, then producing an exciting finishing burst that had Group 1 winner written all over it. He has an undeniable winning chance. However, he rises 1kg on that victory, plus the increase of 400m in distance, so there is a slight query there. He has drawn barrier 10, so will need luck to get scross to get a cosy run, a run that will be required to win a Caulfield Cup. Steven King is the man for that job, most experienced, happy to have him on anything I back at any time of the year, especially Cup time. Lottorio is in the race right up to his ears.

2007 runner up Douro Valley showed last week at Caulfield he is now fit and ready to show his best in the 2008 version by winning the WFA Caulfield Stakes. Ridden like the good thing he was, James Winks took the gelding straight to the front, to lead all the way over 200m. From barrier 2 tomorrow, Douro Valley will get the run of the race, and like last year, he will look the winner at the top of the straight and will run the 2400m right out. Douro valley a real hope of going one better in 2008.

2008 victor Master O'Reilly has only had two runs back from a spell to fit him for the 2008 assignment. However, he did have a mid year preparation, so only had a couple of weeks in the paddock and has been in work for as long as most of the others. His run behind Lottorio in the Turnbull was outstanding, meets him 1.5kg better and will strip much fitter for the outing. He has had two starts at Caulfield voer 2400m, both have resulted in wins. The only issues with him, is barrier 13 (he came from 6 last year to win after a cosy run and a great ride), and whether he is fit enough. His obvious target this year is the first Tuesday in November, however after his Turnbull effort, one simply cannot sell him short for 2008 Caulfield Cup, If Vlad Duric can get him across from the barrier one off the fence, then bring him into the race at the 800m, he is a serious winning chance.

Should be a terrific race, looking forward to it immensely, let's hope we don't have the drama we endured in 2007 in the lead up when Maldivian & Eskimo Queen were a late scratchings at the barrier. Our selections are:-

1 Master O'Reilly
2 Douro valley
3 Lottorio
4 Red Ruler

Best of luck to all those having a punt in the Caulfield Cup.