2008 VRC Oaks

VRC Oaks Preview

The third day of the Flemington Spring carnival welcomes all those from the fairer sex with open arms. On the 9 race program no less than 4 are dedicated to fillies and/or mares, there will be fashions on the field, women strutting their stuff across Flemington with gay abandon. Yes, it truly is ladies day.

The Oaks itself brings together 17 3yo fillies, well almost all are actually 3 years old, some won't physically turn 3 for another week or two. They race against each other over 2500m, the distance over which the VRC Derby was run on Saturday, and all are running over that distance for the first time in their lives. Not one has been over a journey any further than 2000m in their short careers, thus they are all jumping at least 500m in their endeavours to the coveted Group 1. Of the 17 acceptors, 5 have never even won one race before, they are maidens, trying to win a Group 1 event. On top of that, there are another 6 fillies who have only won one lifetime race. This is not exceptional, it happens every year, with fillies attempting to win that pinnacle black type so important to breeders, despite the fact they are too young, too inexperienced, and some simply not good enough to ever win at the elite level. Media moguls then become extremely excited every time a former Oaks winner steps out on to the race track, believing their achievements as a 3yo filly takes them to status far above mortal equines. This, it rarely if ever does.

In the 2008 version of the Oaks, we again see an odds on favourite in the shape of the Kris Lees trained Samantha Miss. Now Samantha is no ordinary 3yo filly. She has had 10 starts before her Oaks assignment, winning 6 including two Group 1 events, one against the boys in the Champagne Stakes at Randwick back in April. She has also run 3 placings, including a tremendous effort last start in the Group 1 WFA W S Cox Plate over 2040m at Moonee Valley, beaten only 1.2 lengths by Maldivian. So our girl Samantha is entitled to be around the $1.80 mark for the Oaks, as none of her rivals can boast more than two race victories, let alone two at the highest level. And which of her rivals could we even consider in our wildest dreams could possibly secure a position in the field, let alone run a place as a 3yo filly in a Cox Plate? None, exactly. Samantha Miss deserves favouritism.

Nevertheless, there is always the uncertainty of racing. She is well drawn in barrier 3, regular jockey Hugh Bowman will ride, a welcome return after he could not make the weight in the Cox Plate. He will give her the run of the race in behind the speed, bring her clear in the straight to allow her to let down her devastating final finish. But will she run out the 2500m? She has now had 5 runs in from a spell, including that gut buster at Moonee Valley when everyone thought on the home turn she was just going to unleash and blouse them all. She petered on her run that day, almost losing third place to Zarita. Has she had enough? We will only be able to answer these questions at around 3:05pm Melbourne time. If she runs the 2500m, she still has her zest for racing, and class prevails, she will win, like many other top class 3yo fillies before her. Nevertheless, we won't be taking any tomato sauce odds on offer to find out if the moon and young Samantha are in sync when the Oaks field jumps away.

There should be plenty of pace in the race, Estee has led at her latest two runs, most recently on Saturday in the Wakeful, the traditional lead up to the Oaks, and on both occasions she has fought on tenaciously, with all due respect to the leader biased tracks on which she was running. Roobles & Lunar Lights will also go forward, and with so many racing over the 2500m for the first time, there are sure to be another one or two who pull hard and have to to allowed to run toward the lead. So there will be plenty of pace on, which should suit Samantha Miss. However, this will also suit a few others who will obtain nice runs in the race as well. Miss Scarlatti has unfortunately drawn very badly, and will have to go back from the alley, if she goes forward, that would be tantamount to suicide, however a fast pace will suit and she will be running on at the finish. If she can keep in touch as the field approaches the turn, then will figure in the finish.

Okay, hands up all who saw the run of Kimillsy on Saturday in the Wakeful? You are all very clever cherubs, aren't you. Yes, it was a run to take note of, to write down in that little black book you hide from all others, or even simply make a mental note of and keep repeating to yourself, "back her next time, back her next time." Kimillsy had been a little one paced at her previous two runs, behind Samantha Miss & Gallica, however she rocketed to the line in the Wakeful, and if she repeats that run in the Oaks, she will nearly win.

The Oaks is a race lacking plenty of depth, and whichever filly gets the best run in transit, and then is able to run a strong 2500m, that is the filly who will win. Which filly that will be, we won't know until after the race. There are only a handful of winning chances, however we cannot encourage any one to take odds on about any horse at their first attempt at 2500m. If you insist on betting, take exotics around Samantha Miss, Kimillsy, Estee & Miss Scarlatti. If you insist on having a win bet, then the odds offered about Kimillsy are far more attractive than those being offered for Samantha Miss.

Remember the winning odds for all the Group 1 races so far at Flemington this Spring. Then understand, there are a couple of far better bets on the program, than guessing whether an inexperienced 3yo filly can run out a strong 2500m at their first attempt.

Good luck and profitable punting to all