Spring 2008 - The Year Of The Long Shots

No matter what happens on Oaks day tomorrow at Flemington, or the final day of the 2008 spring carnival on Saturday, this year will have to be remembered as the year punters were sent packing without even the shirt on their backs. The win of Viewed yesterday in the Melbourne Cup at odds of over $40 on all Australian totes, has capped off a spring carnival that will have most punters shaking their heads as to how they are supposed to find these winners. It has been a spring for despised outsiders, winning almost every Group 1 race on offer, with the exception of the Caulfield Guineas some 3 weeks ago.

Let's have a look at the winners of the major races thus far:-

Caulfield Cup - All The Good $41 SP
W S Cox Plate - Maldivian $12 SP
VRC Derby - Rebel Raider $101 SP
Melbourne Cup - Viewed $41 SP

Now, I suppose Maldivian was not what you would call a monstrous outsider winning the Cox Plate. Nevertheless, he was not in the first 5 favourites on the day and started $12 in a field of 12, after a dismal performance in the Caulfield Cup the week prior. What he did Cox Plate day was a form reversal of decent proportions, it must be said.

All The Good was a last start winner at Newmarket by over 3 lengths, so maybe he simply got under Australian punters guard. However Rebel Raider ran a meek 3rd in the Geelong Classic, a race rarely proving a strong form line for the Derby. In fact Rebel Raider was beaten over 3 lengths at Geelong, and was correctly sent out at 100/1 in the Derby. Viewed had had 4 runs back following his Brisbane Cup win on a bog track back in June, beaten soundly at every one of those runs this spring. Certainly, Viewed, Rebel Raider & Maldivian all put in form reversals that fooled most punters on the day. So, punters rightly or as it turned out wrongly, ignored all four of these Group 1 winners. If we go back to the time honoured Turnbull Stakes a month ago, where Weekend Hussler was sent out a long odds on favourite, he duely missed a place, the rot for punters starting way back in early October.

The Caulfield Guineas has turned out to be one of the only major races where form lines stood up and punters got it right, when the Mark Kavanagh trained Whobegotyou was victorious at $1.60, not the most succulent of odds for which punters search. Nevertheless, a winner is a winner this spring and Whobegotyou is almost the only horse to put some money back into punters pockets. Northern Meteor, admittedly started very short priced favourite in the Group 1 Coolmore on Saturday, however it must be said this is not one of the big 6 or 7 races of the spring.

So, why have the majority of the favourites been failing? Why are these long priced horses consistently winning throughout the spring of 2008?

There are several reasons for this. Firstly, most of these beaten favourites have been well under the odds, and most have actually been false favourites. The strength & depth of Australian horses, especially at the top level has evened out so much over the past few years, it doesn't take much to go wrong for the favourite's chances to go awry in a race. Favourites require everything to go their way, as do every other horse in the race for that matter to win the race. Being used up early, sitting a little wide without any cover, taking off too early, horses placed in unsuitable races over unsuitable distances all of these issues will accumulate to get a favourite or any other horse beaten. Horses who win these top class races, generally have everything go their way, receiving a nice easy run with cover, getting clear at the right time, not being used up early, and of course being placed by the trainer in the right race over the right distance. Media hype plays a massive part in making horses false favourites, as we saw with Weekend Hussler & Whobegotyou. Weekend Hussler was a sprinter miler attempting to win staying races in a year that most thought the WFA ranks were down in class. He simply didn't stay. Whobegotyou was jumping 500m in distance in attempting to win the Derby, a fact clearly forgotten by punters carried away with the media hype surrounding the horses chances. At least the winner Rebel Raider only jumped 300m from the Geelong run to the Derby. As for the Melbourne Cup, I don't know how many times I watched a replay of Septimus winning in Ireland at his most recent start before the Cup, winning by a massive 13 lengths. Alas, what every pundit forgot to mention to punters was this victory was on a bog track, and Septimus would be racing on a hard surface come Cup day. And how many times did we see a replay of Mad Rush's excellent 4th in the Caulfield Cup, pundits drooling over it as a great guide to his chances in the Melbourne Cup. What pundits did not tell punters, was that Mad Rush had never won a race beyond 2400m, his best distance, the distance of the Caulfield Cup not the Melbourne Cup, and was a massive query over the 3200m yesterday. The media has plenty to answer for in assisting to make these horses short priced false favourites. If the media is going to push horses, then they should give out all the facts, not just the one's that suit them to make a story.

The other major issue is track bias, which is an alley that Racing Victoria forbid most journalists covering the carnival to walk down. Caulfield over its 3 day carnival in October was a disgrace, with few or no horses making up ground in any race. The committee moved the rain around on all 3 days in an attempt to lure punters into the belief the track was playing fairly, and with the assistance of the media, most punters were duped. Fact is, other than a handful of events, front runners on the fence were advantaged, alas, nothing changed when we arrived at Flemington last Saturday. The only races where horses seem to be able to make ground at Flemington this year is in long distance races. The 1400m & 1600m races around the circuit, horses simply have to be in the first 2 or 3 to have any winning hope, and the straight races are the same.

Another issue is that punters are all becoming sheep. They follow media hype, they look for the obvious form lines because they are what most of the racing media tend to focus on. In yesterday's Melbourne up for example, plenty of media wanted to spruik Bart Cummings chances of winning a 12th Cup. However they focussed on Saturday's Saab winner Moatize, not the Brisbane Cup winner Viewed. Thus, Viewed went out at $41 (gross overs), Moatize $12 (gross unders), and we all know the result. Punters listen to the radio, to the racing stations on television, and follow what is fed to them. They look at form guides in the same way every time they pick one up, not just one punter, but the majority of punters. Therefore, some horses who should be $2.50 in the market come up as $1.50 chances, way under the odds. There was a glaring example of this in the last at Flemington yesterday with favourite Daintree Duke. His true price was around the $2.75 mark, however he had been odds on with bookmakers since acceptances came out on Saturday evening. Why? Because of the massive media hype surrounding him. In the end, he was beaten, albeit unluckily, by Danzylum who sat close to the pace all the way and held on strongly to the finish.

So what will happen in the Oaks tomorrow? How many punters will keenly jump on odds on favourite Samantha Miss after her great 3rd in the W S Cox Plate for tomorrow 3yo fillies classic? Going by what has transpired thus far this spring, plenty will, and once again they will get burnt. Samantha Miss is the class horse of the race, however, like Whobegotyou on Saturday, is jumping 500m from the Plate to the Oaks, and we know what happened to Whobegotyou at his short quote. She is long odds on, and terrible value for any punter to consider backing. Punters have to get smarter, either look for value, or simply don't have a bet. What, I hear you cry! Don't have a bet! Yes, show some discipline, either look for one over the odds, or wait for another race. Don't listen to media hype, especially when 3 or 4 different outlets spruik the same horse, it will be under the odds. Leave it alone, wait for it to fail under the pressure of such support, then jump on at subsequent starts when the odds are right.

The final group 1 of the carnival is run on Saturday over the 1600m at Flemington, however we won't see an odds on pop in that race. So punters should get good value for their money in the race. Nevertheless, the media will hype up one or two who are sure to be well in the market come jump time, as well as being way under their true odds. So punters beware.

The media is a most important factor in the racing industry. It simply would not survive the way it is without the media. However, all facets of the media must take their jobs far more seriously than they do now. All they look for is a story, and when several all jump on the one horse it comes up way under the odds, and generally gets beaten. The media always try to make a hero, a so called champion. Unfortunately they did this with Weekend Hussler & Whobegotyou, as there were no other horses consistently winning this spring. We should all allow the horses to make their own stories, allow the horses on track performances to influence our judgement, maybe then, punters will get back on the right track.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.