We dearly wish we knew how the track will play prior to posting this, however we are not mind readers and cannot predict the future. Let's preface this by saying these are our thoughts before scratchings, track conditions, and any race bias is known.
Maribyrnong Plate
Always a tough affair with three first starters to worry about. Of what we have seen, Exceedingly Good is the one to beat, however we wouldn't be jumping in at the $2.10 on offer. He only beat Nato by 1.3 lengths, and he is $13 fixed odds at present, far better each way value. David Hayes has three runners, with Craig WIlliams on the filly Ballerina Girl which is a good lead as to his best hope in the race. She is around the $3.50 mark at present and would be backable at those odds or better. Hard to see any of the other raced division figuring, which leaves us with the Rick Hore-Lacey trained Commissioned, a General Nedym colt. The breed always race well fresh and Rick would not be starting the horse unless certain he was ready to win, look out for any solid market moves for him. We'll take the fave on here at the odds and at our own peril.
Carbine Club Stakes
Lee Freedman and Mick Price hold the key here. Freedman has put stable jockey Corey Brown on Teskara who was a nice winner two starts back at Geelong, that is a lead in itself. He ran a nice 3rd at Caulfield after that, however will need luck from barrier 11. Electromotive's form is outstanding. He beat Moreton Bay by over 2 lengths two starts back, and Moreton Bay has won 2 straight since in easy fashion. Then he beat a very strong field on Moe Cup day, had he drawn an alley tomorrow, he was the one to beat. We would think those two have the wood on Freedman's other runner Moment Of Truth, although he did beat the older gallopers leading all the way last start over the 1600m. Now, Mick Price's two runners will both go very close. Stable jockey Craig Newitt went to Kilmore to ride Rightfully Yours at his first start, only to be beaten by stablemate Sound Journey who has now won 3 on end in impressive fashion. He then beat a very strong field of maidens at Ballarat, and Newitt has chosen to ride him over stablemate Schilling who he rode to victory at Cranbourne over 1400m last start. Plenty of other chances in the race including Montonari and Blue Sky. We'll take the jockey's leads here and suggest Rightfully Yours and Teskara will fight out the race.
SAAB Quality (formerly the time honoured Hotham Handicap)
Last chance for this lot of one paced plodders to get into the Melbourne Cup. The Geelong Cup form should stand up here as the two who quinellad the race had the best form going in there. The Fuzz and Zavite beat the rest clearly that day, and both have form around Master O'Reilly, Dolphin Jo and Light Vision, so that will do us. The NZ'er Sculptor might run well, Pacino will run his usual honest race, while we can expect an improvement from Chollula. If the track is playing to front runners, then Zavite will be a good thing, if playing to run on horses, The Fuzz might just nail him on the line.
Wakeful Stakes
Hopefully by this time of the afternoon, we are aware of how the track is playing and where the best running will be. If run on horses are being allowed to win, then Serious Speed looks almost unbeatable. The $4.40 on offer earlier in the week looked luxurious to say the least, she is now into $3.50 and will more than likely start shorter tomorrow. However, she will get back, has 57kg to lump, first time at 2000m, a few question marks that is for sure. Nothing she beat in the 1000 Guineas will get near he tomorrow unless track bias assists them. Antarctic Miss's run in the Guineas was outstanding, she will lead tomorrow and despite the dreadful draw, will be in front with 200m to go. If the track is playing to leaders, she will win, so at the $15 currently on offer, she is a good each way bet. The only other chance in the race is Katherine Gold. She won well at Caulfield last start and given a good run from her nice draw with Michael Rodd aboard will be in the finish tomorrow. Remember, look for prevailing track bias, then bet accordingly.
Ascot Vale Stakes
Weekend Hustler has plenty against him tomorrow, and none of his obstacles are his opponents. He has not raced for 3 weeks, he steps back from 1600m to the 1200m which is a massive task for any horse and trainer, and has an outside draw. The straight races are a lottery at the best of times, so Brad Rawiller will have to have his mind made up as to which side of the track he will head for. With only 9 runners, probably all will go to the inside, as long as it is not too badly cut up come jump time. However, at $1.50, Weekend Hustler is no betting proposition despite being classes above his rivals. Incumbent will improve tomorrow and could be an each way chance, along with Scenic Blast and Shrewd Rhythm. No bet race for us.
MacKinnon Stakes
This is a good betting race as most of the Melbourne Cup hopefuls will just be having a pipe opener for Tuesday. This leaves very few winning chances, especially considering El Segundo will not run (not that he could win, see a previous blog post). Haradasun, Pillar of Hercules, Captious and Devil Moon are the only winning chances. Given the drama surrounding Pillar Of Hercules, his ownership issues and auction sale today for $1.8m, it is impossible seeing him winning, despite such a light weight. If there is on pace bias, then Devil Moon will go close, if run on bias, then swoopers could hold the key. Haradasun will sit just off Devil Moon and have the sitting shot. If he took no harm from his Cox Plate 3rd, then he is the one to beat. Captious will run a great race at big odds, and if the track is playing on an even keel, then he will give a great sight at nice odds.
VRC Derby
Most of these horses have not really turned three as yet, so plenty of questions still to be asked. Some have the right pedigree for running out a strong 2500m, others certainly do not. The favourite is Marching, by Commands, after his emphatic victory in the strong lead up race at Moonee Valley last Saturday. However, Marching is the first of the Commands to place at further than 1600m, let alone win. There is nothing in his pedigree to suggest he will run 2500m, as there are no winners past 1600. If the race is a sit and sprint, then he is in it up to his ears, if there is a lot of pace on, then he will flounder. Will there be pace? We reckon there will be with 13 runners in the Blue Ribband. The start is only 150m from the first turn so those drawn out wide will have to go forward in an attempt to get across otherwise they get trapped wide around a 1600m bend, so that alone should ensure some pace. Marching from barrier 2 will get shuffled back and he will have to be good to win. So, who will the run on horses be? Littorio, Stockade, Best Beware, Kibbutz and Villain are probably the best of these. However please remeber, take close heed as to how the track is playing before making any punting decisions. If on pace bias exists, then a sit and sprint Marching has an excellent chance of victory. If the fence is off, and the winners are coming out wide, then Littorio and Villain are probably the two.
Myer Classic
We reluctantly called this race by the correct name, as it was only introduced a couple of years ago and has little or no history. Looks a benefit for Divine Madonna unless horses cannot make ground on the day. At level weights she is a weighted certainty, barrier 12 will make no difference as she will get back to nearly last anyway. We are stunned bookies are offering black figures about her. Unfortunately we won't know her fate until after 5 or 6 races are run tomorrow. Of the rest it is a lottery. If the track is playing to on pace runners, then Cinque Cento will race on or close to the lead, and she has been running in far superior company to her opposition other than Divine Madonna.
The Salinger
Had to call this one by the sponsors name because it has a different sponsor almost every year. Back in the 60s it was called the Craven A Stakes, that is how long the VRC has been selling off traditionalism. Straight 6 race, track bias the key, inside or outside? Inside, Stanzout goes very close to winning, his form excellent, well drawn, will get a good run, winner here two starts back, plenty to like about him. However if the best going is on the outside, he has no hope. Typhoon Zed in the same boat, has a good chance if inside is favoured. Tesbury Jack is drawn the centre, giving him a good option to go either way, and his first up win was a nice effort. Of the outside brigade, Shadoways, Storm Signal have good chances.
Ellerston Capital Stakes
Now this is a good race with a couple of very good horses involved. Top weight Royal Ida is fitter now after two runs in Adelaide and is back to peak form. Barrier is a worry, however he'll get back and run home strongly if the bias favours him. Lord Of The Dance gave nothing else a chance at Caulfield last start. We jumped on one start early with him, however if he runs up to that effort he won't be getting beaten tomorrow. He will race on pace so is the one if the track is playing to front runners. The dark horse here is Count To Zero. Forget he ever went around at Caulfield, he was only beaten just under 4 lenths after geting too far back and never seeing daylight at any stage. He will improve tomorrow and has a great chance here at $14 currently on offer.
Well, those are our thoughts for tomorrow's Flemington meeting. Please tread very warily early in the day tomorrow, check all races closely, work out any bias, and use that evidence you see to assist your punting.
We have two good things at Ascot tomorrow, plus another elsehwere in the country. Please contact us here profselections@austarnet.com.au if you would like to back some winners tomorrow.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Friday, November 2, 2007
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Fair Race Tracks For All Horses
Every year around Melbourne Cup time, this issue raises its ugly head. Why? Because Racing Victoria issue an edict to every course manager to prepare race tracks to a dead (4) level. This ensures the sting is out of the ground giving horses softer going to place their feet when racing. So track managers water race courses to obtain the dead rating.
Well, we have to ask why this issue is raised every year, and why Racing Victoria issue this edict. There are two reasons why. Firstly, to appease overseas horses, especially those from Europe who are used to very soft race tracks. In fact, Racing Victoria guarantee the overseas raiders won't face hard, fast surfaces come Melbourne Cup time, ensuring a quality line up come the first Tuesday in November. The second reason tracks are watered is to appease high profile trainers who have good quality gallopers who are racing with major leg or feet problems. These Australian trainers march out this time every year inisiting track managers water, no doctor, race courses to give their horses more of a winning chance, as the trainer knows full well on a good to fast track the horses problems will not allow it to run to its full potential. And with the huge prizemoney on offer, trainers want their horses racing for these riches and to be competitive.
Again, we have to ask why? Rain affected or watered race tracks are prone to bias. Some are affected to favour on pace on fence runners giving back markers little or no hope, other rain affected tracks favour the run on horses who swoop out wide on the track giving leaders near the fence no hope. Why would any one want any sort of bias on Derby Day, Melbourne Cup day, or any day of racing for that matter.
The fact is, the majority (silent majority, non lobbying majority) would prefer a good racing surface, every day of the year. And rightly so. The best and fairest racing surface is a GOOD track. A good track should be prepared whenever and wherever possible, so every horse is allowed to run on its merits and have every possible winning opportunity.
The racing surfaces prepared by Victorian track managers are biased toward the overseas challengers and the high profile local trainers. When Australian horses travel to Hong Kong, or England to race, they cop whatever is dished up to them come race day. Our trainers certainly have no say or influence over how tracks are prepared. However Racing Victoria panders to overseas horses giving them the best track conditions, the ones they are used to at home, the ones that are in their favour, the ones they were promised.
Look at Werribee Cup day yesterday. It was the biggest joke of a track that we have witnessed since Flemington on Turnbull Stakes day when the fence (due to incessant watering) was a complete no go zone. Werribee yesterday favoured leaders, or on pace on fence horses. No horse made ground out wide, no horses won from further than two off the fence.
So, after the debacle of Flemington a month ago, Werribee yesterday, we now approach the biggest week of racing in Australia, Melbourne Cup week, when 4 meetings are held at headquarters in the space of 8 days. If Flemington plays on Saturday, anywhere like it did on Turnbull Stakes day, punters face massive losses. And if the track is biased on Derby Day, the first day of the carnival, then it will only get worse for the following three days.
Let's hope for every punters sake, the track at Flemington plays fairly to all runners for the next week. Hopefully tracks are not doctored so they become rain affected. This will give all punters the opportunity to find that elusive winner without worrying about how the track might play.
May the best horses win.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Well, we have to ask why this issue is raised every year, and why Racing Victoria issue this edict. There are two reasons why. Firstly, to appease overseas horses, especially those from Europe who are used to very soft race tracks. In fact, Racing Victoria guarantee the overseas raiders won't face hard, fast surfaces come Melbourne Cup time, ensuring a quality line up come the first Tuesday in November. The second reason tracks are watered is to appease high profile trainers who have good quality gallopers who are racing with major leg or feet problems. These Australian trainers march out this time every year inisiting track managers water, no doctor, race courses to give their horses more of a winning chance, as the trainer knows full well on a good to fast track the horses problems will not allow it to run to its full potential. And with the huge prizemoney on offer, trainers want their horses racing for these riches and to be competitive.
Again, we have to ask why? Rain affected or watered race tracks are prone to bias. Some are affected to favour on pace on fence runners giving back markers little or no hope, other rain affected tracks favour the run on horses who swoop out wide on the track giving leaders near the fence no hope. Why would any one want any sort of bias on Derby Day, Melbourne Cup day, or any day of racing for that matter.
The fact is, the majority (silent majority, non lobbying majority) would prefer a good racing surface, every day of the year. And rightly so. The best and fairest racing surface is a GOOD track. A good track should be prepared whenever and wherever possible, so every horse is allowed to run on its merits and have every possible winning opportunity.
The racing surfaces prepared by Victorian track managers are biased toward the overseas challengers and the high profile local trainers. When Australian horses travel to Hong Kong, or England to race, they cop whatever is dished up to them come race day. Our trainers certainly have no say or influence over how tracks are prepared. However Racing Victoria panders to overseas horses giving them the best track conditions, the ones they are used to at home, the ones that are in their favour, the ones they were promised.
Look at Werribee Cup day yesterday. It was the biggest joke of a track that we have witnessed since Flemington on Turnbull Stakes day when the fence (due to incessant watering) was a complete no go zone. Werribee yesterday favoured leaders, or on pace on fence horses. No horse made ground out wide, no horses won from further than two off the fence.
So, after the debacle of Flemington a month ago, Werribee yesterday, we now approach the biggest week of racing in Australia, Melbourne Cup week, when 4 meetings are held at headquarters in the space of 8 days. If Flemington plays on Saturday, anywhere like it did on Turnbull Stakes day, punters face massive losses. And if the track is biased on Derby Day, the first day of the carnival, then it will only get worse for the following three days.
Let's hope for every punters sake, the track at Flemington plays fairly to all runners for the next week. Hopefully tracks are not doctored so they become rain affected. This will give all punters the opportunity to find that elusive winner without worrying about how the track might play.
May the best horses win.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Monday, October 29, 2007
El Segundo: A Moonee Valley Specialist
Hindsight is a great medium, makes know it alls out of anyone who cares to use it. Nevertheless, hindsight can and should be used by all punters who want to be successful at their craft.
Let's take the Cox Plate run on Saturday, won by Colin Little's great middle distance horse, El Segundo. The son of Pins won "Australia's Middle Distance Championship" comfortably after being given a terrific run in transit by Luke Nolen, giving nothing else a chance in the straight. Now, before going any further, we did not bet in the race, so there is no talking from our kick happening here. We selected Haradasun in our emails to clients on Saturday, although urged caution to those wanting to bet on the race as it certainly appeared a tricky affair. The only thing that was going to beat Haradasun on Saturday was the jockey, and prophetically that is exactly what happened. Haradasun was butchered by a jockey who should have had more nouse, especially after riding 4 winners earlier in the day. Hindsight tells us our prediction was correct, the jockey lost the race for Haradasun.
El Segundo had put in an absolute shocker at his previous run in the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington, beaten over 5 lengths that day by Devil Moon and Haradasun. At his start prior to that effort, he never looked like being beaten in the Feehan Stakes at Moonee Valley, narrowly conquering Haradasun that day. We went back through both horses form very closely on Friday night, although believing El Segundo's last run was too bad to be true, and the fact that he can put in a bad one now and then, improving quickly at subsequent starts. However what did not jump out and hit us in the face were the venues of these successes and failures. At his last start last preparation, El Segundo finished 4th in the Australian Cup at Flemington beaten over 6 lengths, remember, the venue for his Turnbull Stakes failure. And go back even further to this time last year, El Segundo went within a whisker of winning the Cox Plate, after putting in a poor run in the Caulfield Stakes. El Segundo has had 3 runs at Flemington, for no wins. He has had 7 starts at Moonee Valley now, for 4 wins a second and a third, his only unplaced run came behind Lad Of The Manor & Makybe Diva in the Feehan Stakes of 2005. His third was first up over an unsuitable 1200m carrying 62.5kg. What does this tell us? El Segundo loves Moonee Valley, always has, whether it be the softer surface or the tight turning course, he thrives there. Obviously, he dislikes Flemington. So there you go, hindsight tells us El Segundo grows an extra leg at Moonee Valley, however should not be backed with countefeit money at Flemington. We should all make note of that for his future preparations.
Anyway, congratulations to Colin Little and Luke Nolen, two nice guys of racing who both deserved their victory in the Cox Plate.
As for PASS members, one winner from two selections on Saturday, with our stable horse El Presidente making up for his previous defeat by winning the last at Ascot on Saturday with ease. He is on a Railway Stakes trail and should be competitive in whatever he runs in this campaign. A Group 2 or 3 race is certainly within his grasp given reasonable barrier draws.
Biggest racing week of the year is approaching, we have our tails up here at present, so we expect plenty more winners to come over the Spring. We have received a few emails from prospective clients, however some have not placed correct contact details on these emails so we have not been able to reply. If you contact us, please include current operative email address or contact phone number so we can repsond speedily.
If you would like details please contact us here profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Let's take the Cox Plate run on Saturday, won by Colin Little's great middle distance horse, El Segundo. The son of Pins won "Australia's Middle Distance Championship" comfortably after being given a terrific run in transit by Luke Nolen, giving nothing else a chance in the straight. Now, before going any further, we did not bet in the race, so there is no talking from our kick happening here. We selected Haradasun in our emails to clients on Saturday, although urged caution to those wanting to bet on the race as it certainly appeared a tricky affair. The only thing that was going to beat Haradasun on Saturday was the jockey, and prophetically that is exactly what happened. Haradasun was butchered by a jockey who should have had more nouse, especially after riding 4 winners earlier in the day. Hindsight tells us our prediction was correct, the jockey lost the race for Haradasun.
El Segundo had put in an absolute shocker at his previous run in the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington, beaten over 5 lengths that day by Devil Moon and Haradasun. At his start prior to that effort, he never looked like being beaten in the Feehan Stakes at Moonee Valley, narrowly conquering Haradasun that day. We went back through both horses form very closely on Friday night, although believing El Segundo's last run was too bad to be true, and the fact that he can put in a bad one now and then, improving quickly at subsequent starts. However what did not jump out and hit us in the face were the venues of these successes and failures. At his last start last preparation, El Segundo finished 4th in the Australian Cup at Flemington beaten over 6 lengths, remember, the venue for his Turnbull Stakes failure. And go back even further to this time last year, El Segundo went within a whisker of winning the Cox Plate, after putting in a poor run in the Caulfield Stakes. El Segundo has had 3 runs at Flemington, for no wins. He has had 7 starts at Moonee Valley now, for 4 wins a second and a third, his only unplaced run came behind Lad Of The Manor & Makybe Diva in the Feehan Stakes of 2005. His third was first up over an unsuitable 1200m carrying 62.5kg. What does this tell us? El Segundo loves Moonee Valley, always has, whether it be the softer surface or the tight turning course, he thrives there. Obviously, he dislikes Flemington. So there you go, hindsight tells us El Segundo grows an extra leg at Moonee Valley, however should not be backed with countefeit money at Flemington. We should all make note of that for his future preparations.
Anyway, congratulations to Colin Little and Luke Nolen, two nice guys of racing who both deserved their victory in the Cox Plate.
As for PASS members, one winner from two selections on Saturday, with our stable horse El Presidente making up for his previous defeat by winning the last at Ascot on Saturday with ease. He is on a Railway Stakes trail and should be competitive in whatever he runs in this campaign. A Group 2 or 3 race is certainly within his grasp given reasonable barrier draws.
Biggest racing week of the year is approaching, we have our tails up here at present, so we expect plenty more winners to come over the Spring. We have received a few emails from prospective clients, however some have not placed correct contact details on these emails so we have not been able to reply. If you contact us, please include current operative email address or contact phone number so we can repsond speedily.
If you would like details please contact us here profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Geelong Cup Day
Spring time is the most exciting time of the year for punters and all those interested in horse racing. Yesterday we saw the running of the Geelong Cup which in some years has provided a good guide to a race held on the first Tuesday in November. There were many Melbourne Cup hopefuls attempting to win at Geelong to gain entry into the big one, however David Hayes and Craig Williams again proved they were too strong when The Fuzz won narrowly but convincingly in the 2400m event. The Anthony Cummings trained Zavite fought strongly in the straight, however found the winner a little too good in the final 100m. Both horses deserve a chance to line up in the Melbourne Cup, however Zavite will have to win the Hotham Handicap to ensure hinself a start.
Whilst on the Melbourne Cup, it never ceases to amaze me how arrogant some of the overseas trainers are regarding their charges who are imported for the Cup. Some only enter quarantine for the minimum amount of time required (2 weeks) with the horses arriving a fortnight prior to the running of the Cup. Do these trainers honestly belive their horses will acclimatise in two weeks? Do they honestly believe their horses will regain the weight lost on the flight to Australia in two weeks? And do they honestly believe they can recover their horses fitness to win a 3200m race in only two weeks? This is why most overseas horses fail miserably in the Melbourne Cup, beacuse they are not given enough time to get used to their new surrounding and recover sufficiently from the ordeal of the flight to Australia. All horses lose weight and condition on a long areoplane flight, and take anywhere up to a month to recover fully, depending on their fitness and resiliance.
The overseas horses who have succeeded in Australia are those given plenty of time to settle down, with most having had a run here before the big one. Both the Japanese horses who quinellad the Cup last year ran in the Caulfield Cup first. Media Puzzle who won the Cup in 2002 won the Geelong Cup prior to running on the first Tuesday in November. The only horses who won the Cup and did not run beforehand was Vintage Crop, however he was brought to Australia by Dermot Weld a month before race day and was given plenty of time to acclimatise.
So, when looking for an overseas horse for 2007 Melbourne Cup, look for one who has been prepared on Australian soil for the longest possible time, not one who arrogantly flew in on Tuesday barely two weeks before the big one.
PASS members have been treated to two specials already this week, both saluting the judge first. North Alert won easily at Mt Isa on Tuesday while Sound Journey won comfortable at Geelong yesterday filling our members pockets with plenty of cash. Sound Journey will win a nice 3yo race over the Flemington carnival, possibly the Carbine Club on Derby Day or even the Sandown Guineas. Another nice winner for PASS members yesterday was Moreton Bay, who will make a Cups horse this time next year.
PASS members have been told of a good thing at Mackay this afternoon. If you would like to become a member please contact us here at profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Whilst on the Melbourne Cup, it never ceases to amaze me how arrogant some of the overseas trainers are regarding their charges who are imported for the Cup. Some only enter quarantine for the minimum amount of time required (2 weeks) with the horses arriving a fortnight prior to the running of the Cup. Do these trainers honestly belive their horses will acclimatise in two weeks? Do they honestly believe their horses will regain the weight lost on the flight to Australia in two weeks? And do they honestly believe they can recover their horses fitness to win a 3200m race in only two weeks? This is why most overseas horses fail miserably in the Melbourne Cup, beacuse they are not given enough time to get used to their new surrounding and recover sufficiently from the ordeal of the flight to Australia. All horses lose weight and condition on a long areoplane flight, and take anywhere up to a month to recover fully, depending on their fitness and resiliance.
The overseas horses who have succeeded in Australia are those given plenty of time to settle down, with most having had a run here before the big one. Both the Japanese horses who quinellad the Cup last year ran in the Caulfield Cup first. Media Puzzle who won the Cup in 2002 won the Geelong Cup prior to running on the first Tuesday in November. The only horses who won the Cup and did not run beforehand was Vintage Crop, however he was brought to Australia by Dermot Weld a month before race day and was given plenty of time to acclimatise.
So, when looking for an overseas horse for 2007 Melbourne Cup, look for one who has been prepared on Australian soil for the longest possible time, not one who arrogantly flew in on Tuesday barely two weeks before the big one.
PASS members have been treated to two specials already this week, both saluting the judge first. North Alert won easily at Mt Isa on Tuesday while Sound Journey won comfortable at Geelong yesterday filling our members pockets with plenty of cash. Sound Journey will win a nice 3yo race over the Flemington carnival, possibly the Carbine Club on Derby Day or even the Sandown Guineas. Another nice winner for PASS members yesterday was Moreton Bay, who will make a Cups horse this time next year.
PASS members have been told of a good thing at Mackay this afternoon. If you would like to become a member please contact us here at profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Sunday, October 21, 2007
Caulfield Cup Day
What an absolutely dramatic day Caulfield Cup day turned out to be yesterday. Never before have we seen such happenings minutes prior to a major group 1 race, with the shortest priced favourite in recent times and the second favourite both being scratched at the barrier. You have to feel for the connections of both horses, especially Mark Kavanagh who trained the favourite Maldivian. Michael Rodd who rode Maldivian to the gates yesterday showed his disappointment after Maldivian struck his head on the side of the starting gates, blood streaming down the neck of the equine, by slamming his cap and whip to the turf. Michael knew his Caulfield Cup dream was over for another year.
Maldivian has been a barrier rogue from day 1 and not even a two week holiday to a special barrier educator could assist him prior to his first race start. He refused to go into the barrier on that day at Flemington and was a late scratching at the barrier. However patience and persistence worked well for trainer Mark Kavanagh and his behaviour has been exemplary ever since. Nevertheless, yesterday all his bad habits came back to haunt him with Maldivian tragically paying the ultimate price, scratching at the barriers as a 6/4 favourite for the Caulfield Cup. One must feel for Mark Kavanagh who is genuinely one of the nice blokes of racing and deserves every success that comes his way. Mark did not deserve what happened to Maldivian yesterday, hopefully his luck will improve this week as he prepares Divine Madonna and Devil Moon for the W S Cox Plate. Good luck, Mark.
Tragedy for Maldivian turned into the ultimate triumph for Master O'Reilly and his connections. The Zabeel 5yo gelding had been trained to perfection by Danny O'Brien set for this race and the Melbourne Cup for over 12 months now and by way of a magnificent ride by Vlad Duric he finished far too strongly for his rivals. Nothing that ran around at Caulfield yesterday will beat Master O'Reilly on the first Tuesday in November. Would Maldivian have been able to beat Master O'Reilly? The answer to that question we will never know, however given the dominance of the victory, it would be hard to imagine Maldivian could have staved off such a devastating finishing burst.
PASS members were told 12 months ago that Master O'Reilly would win a Group 1 race. We have been on Master O'Reilly at every one of his 5 starts this preparation providing 3 victories culminating in the Caulfield Cup yesterday. A real shame the late scratchings affected the winning dividends so severely as the $12 would have been very sweet indeed. Nevertheless, the $5.60 was acceptable, far better available for those who took fixed odds during the lead up to the race.
There has been some irate punters who lost their money on both Eskimo Queen and Maldivian due to their scratchings at the barrier yesterday, after they took fixed odds before the final field and barrier draw was announced. The rules state that any bet placed prior to the final field being announced is declared an "all-in" bet and there are no refunds for scratchings. So you lose your money if the horse does not start. Only bets placed after the final field declarations are applicable to refunds. Those who place all-in bets, as early as 3 months ago, know full well they do not get a refund if their horse does not start in the race, so they bet with their eyes wide open, and generally obtain better odds as a consequence. In our opinion anyone who takes on these types of bets deserve to lose. How can anyone possibly believe they can predict who will win a race 2,3 or 4 months in advance? How can they predict if their horse will even start in the race? They do not even know who is in the field, what horses they are up against, what barriers each horse has drawn, and have no idea on ambient weather and track conditions on the day. Placing any all-in bet is fraught with danger and is not a recommended form of punting. In fact it is really not punting, it is a gamble of the highest extreme, akin to sticking a pin into the form guide with a blind fold on to select a winner. The best of luck to all of those who risk hard earned money on these types of bets, they are on a hiding to nothing.
Another great week for members here at PASS. Not only was Master O'Reilly selected exclusively yesterday, we snagged the quinella & trifecta in 5 selections. 4 out of our last 5 specials have saluted so we are certainly in form at the right time of the year.
If you would like to keep informed of all the happenings at PASS please contact us profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Maldivian has been a barrier rogue from day 1 and not even a two week holiday to a special barrier educator could assist him prior to his first race start. He refused to go into the barrier on that day at Flemington and was a late scratching at the barrier. However patience and persistence worked well for trainer Mark Kavanagh and his behaviour has been exemplary ever since. Nevertheless, yesterday all his bad habits came back to haunt him with Maldivian tragically paying the ultimate price, scratching at the barriers as a 6/4 favourite for the Caulfield Cup. One must feel for Mark Kavanagh who is genuinely one of the nice blokes of racing and deserves every success that comes his way. Mark did not deserve what happened to Maldivian yesterday, hopefully his luck will improve this week as he prepares Divine Madonna and Devil Moon for the W S Cox Plate. Good luck, Mark.
Tragedy for Maldivian turned into the ultimate triumph for Master O'Reilly and his connections. The Zabeel 5yo gelding had been trained to perfection by Danny O'Brien set for this race and the Melbourne Cup for over 12 months now and by way of a magnificent ride by Vlad Duric he finished far too strongly for his rivals. Nothing that ran around at Caulfield yesterday will beat Master O'Reilly on the first Tuesday in November. Would Maldivian have been able to beat Master O'Reilly? The answer to that question we will never know, however given the dominance of the victory, it would be hard to imagine Maldivian could have staved off such a devastating finishing burst.
PASS members were told 12 months ago that Master O'Reilly would win a Group 1 race. We have been on Master O'Reilly at every one of his 5 starts this preparation providing 3 victories culminating in the Caulfield Cup yesterday. A real shame the late scratchings affected the winning dividends so severely as the $12 would have been very sweet indeed. Nevertheless, the $5.60 was acceptable, far better available for those who took fixed odds during the lead up to the race.
There has been some irate punters who lost their money on both Eskimo Queen and Maldivian due to their scratchings at the barrier yesterday, after they took fixed odds before the final field and barrier draw was announced. The rules state that any bet placed prior to the final field being announced is declared an "all-in" bet and there are no refunds for scratchings. So you lose your money if the horse does not start. Only bets placed after the final field declarations are applicable to refunds. Those who place all-in bets, as early as 3 months ago, know full well they do not get a refund if their horse does not start in the race, so they bet with their eyes wide open, and generally obtain better odds as a consequence. In our opinion anyone who takes on these types of bets deserve to lose. How can anyone possibly believe they can predict who will win a race 2,3 or 4 months in advance? How can they predict if their horse will even start in the race? They do not even know who is in the field, what horses they are up against, what barriers each horse has drawn, and have no idea on ambient weather and track conditions on the day. Placing any all-in bet is fraught with danger and is not a recommended form of punting. In fact it is really not punting, it is a gamble of the highest extreme, akin to sticking a pin into the form guide with a blind fold on to select a winner. The best of luck to all of those who risk hard earned money on these types of bets, they are on a hiding to nothing.
Another great week for members here at PASS. Not only was Master O'Reilly selected exclusively yesterday, we snagged the quinella & trifecta in 5 selections. 4 out of our last 5 specials have saluted so we are certainly in form at the right time of the year.
If you would like to keep informed of all the happenings at PASS please contact us profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Monday, October 15, 2007
Caulfield Guineas Day
What a terrific days racing at Caulfield on Saturday. Despite the non appearance of most NSW and Queensland horses all races were very competitive and it hard to see any northern horse making too much difference to any of the results. The track played perfectly, every horse appeared to have their chance with little or no bias to inside or outside which is exactly what every punters wants on big race days.
PASS members were treated to a day out with 3 winners from only 4 selections on Saturday. Our horse to follow and Bet Of the Day was Master O'Reilly who earnt himself a start in the Caulfield Cup by winning the Herbert Power Handicap over 2400m. His win was a good solid effort with impressive previous weeks Flemington winner Dolphin Jo left floundering in the Master's wake. Master O'Reilly opened at around the $2.30 mark however was heavily supported to start odds on at $1.90. He's in the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups with a very light weight and at the $11 currently on offer with fixed odds bookies, is great each way value for this Saturday's Caulfield Cup.
PASS members were told in our email on Saturday morning that Weekend Hustler was a living certainty and only bad luck would beat him. Maybe this was an easily predictable result however bookies bet black figure odds on Saturday afternoon and that indeed was a luxury for any race track certainty. We averaged better than $2 for him which is an amazing price considering he was $1.70 with fixed odds bookies for most of the week. Hopefully they put him away now and bring him back after a maturing spell and set him for the Australian Guineas in March.
The best selection for our members came without doubt in the Caulfield Stakes. We wrote in our email that Miss Finland was the "lay of the year" after her ordinary performance in the Underwood Stakes two weeks earlier. She plodded to the line yet again on Saturday and she cannot win the Cox Plate on that effort. It was a far better Melbourne Cup trial than one for the Cox Plate, however it is difficult to imagine she will have enough "miles" in her legs to be a serious contender on the first Tuesday in November. Our third special was nominated in this race and Maldivian didn't let our followers down. He showed he didn't have to lead, sitting outside Rubiscent before careering away at the top of the straight to a commanding lead. Jockey Michael Rodd eased him down close to the post as he was holding his rivals, leaving a little bit in reserve for this Saturday's Caulfield Cup. Dropping 7.5kg, he is a serious Cup contender and will be very hard to beat. The $3.20 on offer at present looks luxurious considering his form, and only a bad barrier will beat him on Saturday.
Our 4th and final selection finished a narrow second at the final Belmont meeting for their season. However, despite protesting against the winner, El Presidente had to settle for the runners up tag. He will atone for this defeat next time he starts as that was only his second run back from a spell and he will strip much fitter for the run. He had difficulty getting clear at the top of the straight, hampered by the eventual winner, before finally getting clear and striding to the front. The tough run told in the final 50 metres and Glory Hunter nailed him right on the line. Follow, El Presidente, he'll win plenty over the summer months at Ascot.
So 3 winners from 4 selections with a close second, with PASS also providing the winners of the first 3 legs of the Melbourne quadrella on Saturday. One lucky member snagged that quaddie multiple times thanks to the PASS selections.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
profselections@austarnet.com.au
PASS members were treated to a day out with 3 winners from only 4 selections on Saturday. Our horse to follow and Bet Of the Day was Master O'Reilly who earnt himself a start in the Caulfield Cup by winning the Herbert Power Handicap over 2400m. His win was a good solid effort with impressive previous weeks Flemington winner Dolphin Jo left floundering in the Master's wake. Master O'Reilly opened at around the $2.30 mark however was heavily supported to start odds on at $1.90. He's in the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups with a very light weight and at the $11 currently on offer with fixed odds bookies, is great each way value for this Saturday's Caulfield Cup.
PASS members were told in our email on Saturday morning that Weekend Hustler was a living certainty and only bad luck would beat him. Maybe this was an easily predictable result however bookies bet black figure odds on Saturday afternoon and that indeed was a luxury for any race track certainty. We averaged better than $2 for him which is an amazing price considering he was $1.70 with fixed odds bookies for most of the week. Hopefully they put him away now and bring him back after a maturing spell and set him for the Australian Guineas in March.
The best selection for our members came without doubt in the Caulfield Stakes. We wrote in our email that Miss Finland was the "lay of the year" after her ordinary performance in the Underwood Stakes two weeks earlier. She plodded to the line yet again on Saturday and she cannot win the Cox Plate on that effort. It was a far better Melbourne Cup trial than one for the Cox Plate, however it is difficult to imagine she will have enough "miles" in her legs to be a serious contender on the first Tuesday in November. Our third special was nominated in this race and Maldivian didn't let our followers down. He showed he didn't have to lead, sitting outside Rubiscent before careering away at the top of the straight to a commanding lead. Jockey Michael Rodd eased him down close to the post as he was holding his rivals, leaving a little bit in reserve for this Saturday's Caulfield Cup. Dropping 7.5kg, he is a serious Cup contender and will be very hard to beat. The $3.20 on offer at present looks luxurious considering his form, and only a bad barrier will beat him on Saturday.
Our 4th and final selection finished a narrow second at the final Belmont meeting for their season. However, despite protesting against the winner, El Presidente had to settle for the runners up tag. He will atone for this defeat next time he starts as that was only his second run back from a spell and he will strip much fitter for the run. He had difficulty getting clear at the top of the straight, hampered by the eventual winner, before finally getting clear and striding to the front. The tough run told in the final 50 metres and Glory Hunter nailed him right on the line. Follow, El Presidente, he'll win plenty over the summer months at Ascot.
So 3 winners from 4 selections with a close second, with PASS also providing the winners of the first 3 legs of the Melbourne quadrella on Saturday. One lucky member snagged that quaddie multiple times thanks to the PASS selections.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
profselections@austarnet.com.au
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
Consequences of EI To The Punter
As authorities headed by the DPI in all states endeavour to control the spread of EI within their designated zones, while trainers and jockeys in NSW and Queensland wonder when and where their horses will next race, while breeders despair over whether their broodmares will be served by stallions, we punters have been left lamenting as the forgotten misfits in the entire crisis.
Let's have a closer look, state by state of what punters are being dished up on daily basis compared to what we should have had if EI had not infected the country.
Firstly in Queensland, there has basically been no racing in SE Qld of any consequence since 24 August. There were a few closed meetings, however due to the break between races for most horses, it was difficult for punters to line up which horses were or weren't fit, and which horses had coped with the training retsrictions the best. So even in these meetings, punting was fraught with danger, and we certainly were not using them as potential betting meetings. Now, with no racing whatsoever in SE Qld, we see the focus move north to Rockhampton who are racing most Saturdays now, along with Townsville and Mackay. The form as these will meetings usually stack up, ansd the meetings at these venues in recent weeks are proving reasonable betting propositions as they always do. The meeting at Cairns yesterday, and for that matter future TAB meetings at Cairns will also fall into similar categpry with the other north coast tracks in Queensland. However, last Thursday the TAB allowed betting for the first time to our knowledge on a meeting at Charleville. On Thursday of this week, a TAB meeting will be conducted at the old mining town of Mount Isa. Now, I've been to a race meeting at the Mount and what a great day it was. Great for socialising and meeting the locals, having a cool ale or three, but not great for putning. Run on brown dirt, the races were very biased toward leaders with some horses carrying massive weights, a real horses for courses track. At Charleville last week, large, evenly matched fields abounded, so along with the dirt surface punters faced a herculian task to finish in front of the leger. I know a few punters who, starved of a punt on Queensland races, had bets at Charleville just for the sake of it, despite not knowing any of the horses, most of the jockeys, nor knowing the form or how the track might play. Good luck to QR for putting on these TAB meeting in an endeavour to salvage lost turnover, however, most are truely not punting propositions, and punters must take extreme care if they decide to outlay their cash on these meetings. Stick to Rocky, Mackay, Townsville and Cairns where we know the horses, know how the tracks play, and which form lines will stand up.
The "closed" NSW TAB meetings that have appeared since the outbreak of EI are even worse for punters. Mainly because most horses racing have not raced for several months, giving the punter little hope of knowing if each individual horse is fit enough to win their race. Not only that, the fields are massive, giving horses drawn out wide virtually no chance of figuring in the finish. Then last Friday, punters were given a meeting at Canberra, the first for two years on their course proper. Now, because of EI, and horse movement restrictions, most of the horses at Canberra had been racing on the Acton (inside) track at Canberra. On Friday, we saw form reversals galore as horses who were handling the Acton surface, found the grass too difficult for them, and conversely plenty of horses who struggled on the Acton, found a new lease of life back on grass. What a conundrum for punters !! Winning on the punt anywhere in NSW will be a nearly impossible task for the punter until racing resumes a normal schedule, we certainly will not be punting on any NSW race until at February, possibly longer.
One may wonder how the EI crisis could affect Victorian racing. They have totally ignored NSW and Qld to continue on regardless as close to their normal schedule as possible. However, we have noticed a few things occurring out of the norm. Firstly, over the early wekks of EI, say 25 August to mid September, there were a lot of meetings abandoned. For example instead of having 2 or 3 meetings on a Saturday or Sunday, only one was held. Now this meant plenty of horses were missing runs, and in the early days plenty of horses missed some work as well. This caused a lot of upset results, and still is. The fitter horses, those who didn't miss work, and continued to race are now much fitter than those who did not race. Now also consider the fact that NSW horses from Albury, Wagga etc are unable to travel across the border to race in Victoria as they normally would, as was the case with South Australian horses earlier in the crisis. What this has done, is encourage the trainers with larger stables to travel further around Victoria to try to win a race with their horses. So we see trainers like Lee Freedman, Colin Alderson, Peter Moody etc turning up at obscure meetings. Now their horse may win, they may not, but this throws form out the window not only for these races, but their next couple of starts. I have noticed a couple of Freedman horses win in the bush lately, he then puts them straight into a city race and they fail miserably, usually well in the market too. Punters see Freedman with a last start maiden winner for example racing at Sandown, and thinks Freedman must have an opinion of the horse bringing him straight to town after an easy kill in the bush. These types of horses are not going on with the job when facing tougher assignments as would normally be expected. And the massive form reversals and upsets during the Spring carnival so far have been glaring. Whether this has anything to do with EI, the fact no Qld or NSW horses are in Victoria for the carnival, whether some horses have taken longer to get fitter, it is hard to say, however never before has their been so many upset reults in the major races as we have seen so far this Spring. And this will continue.
The impact in other states, it must be said has been negligible. However another issue that has caused issues for punters is the introduction of Ratings Based races in SA, WA and Tasmania. These races continually turn up unusual results, as they have done in Victoria and NSW for the past 12 months. Treat these races as if they are a class race, using the most number of wins by a horse in the race as the real class. For example, in an RB72 races, of the 12 starters, the top weight has the most number of previous wins at 5, treat the race as a "pseudo" Class 5 race. So a horse who won a miaden at it's last start, racing against Class 5 or Class 4 horses, will usually struggle to win, despite any favours in the weights. And remember, the weights are decided on the horses rating, not decided on what class of horse he really is. A horse in this RB72 race might be a Class 1 horses, however has a rating of 70, therefore will still carry close to top weight, usually at least 57kg. And we would not want to be backing a Class 1 horse against Class 5 horses with almost top weight. Use 1.5 kg for each class a horse is below the horse with the most number of wins. Now this might seem like an exhorbitant amount, however it will save you backing horses unless they are most favourably weighted. So if a Class 5 horse is against a Class 1 horse, you should only back the class 1 horse if he gets at least 6kg from the Class 5 horse, and this will rarely happen. Of course, sometimes the Class 1 horse will win because he is an up and comer at his peak whereas the Class 5 horse is older and leg weary, however in the long term you will go broke backing a class 1 horse against horses who are of higher grade. Mares get a distinct advantage in these races too, usually a 2.5kg advantage which is equal to around 1.7 lengths. That is quite a lot considering they are rated on the same level, yet receive such a huge weight advantage.
We averaged almost 65 bets per month last racing season, showing an overall profit of just over 2% on turnover. In August we had only 30 bets, in September only 43, and look like having around the 40 mark for October well down on last years average. We are slightly in the positive for the year so far, after losing in August and making it up since then. However, having fewer bets due to EI and the RB races will in the long term affect our overall profits.
Not much we can do other than to be ultra patient and wait for the good things to come along. Come along they still do, however not as frequently as we are used to. Punters should be betting on meetings where there has been little or no disruption to racing. Races in WA, SA, North Eastern Queensland are certainly still good profitable betting propositions. Meetings in NSW, Western Queensland are certainly not betting propositions. Meetings in Victoria should be attacked with extreme caution at present, especially where the fields are inordinately large, try to stick to races which have smaller fields and there are only a couple of realistic chances in the race. And beware of RB races in all states, analyse the form and weights very carefully before deciding to bet on them.
PASS members are showing nice profits this racing year, with profit levels over 33% overall so far from only 25 selections. Our horses to follow are flying too with recent Group winners like Bon Hoffa and Master O'Reilly. So if you would like to be part of the action here at PASS, please contact us profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will show you how to become involved.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Let's have a closer look, state by state of what punters are being dished up on daily basis compared to what we should have had if EI had not infected the country.
Firstly in Queensland, there has basically been no racing in SE Qld of any consequence since 24 August. There were a few closed meetings, however due to the break between races for most horses, it was difficult for punters to line up which horses were or weren't fit, and which horses had coped with the training retsrictions the best. So even in these meetings, punting was fraught with danger, and we certainly were not using them as potential betting meetings. Now, with no racing whatsoever in SE Qld, we see the focus move north to Rockhampton who are racing most Saturdays now, along with Townsville and Mackay. The form as these will meetings usually stack up, ansd the meetings at these venues in recent weeks are proving reasonable betting propositions as they always do. The meeting at Cairns yesterday, and for that matter future TAB meetings at Cairns will also fall into similar categpry with the other north coast tracks in Queensland. However, last Thursday the TAB allowed betting for the first time to our knowledge on a meeting at Charleville. On Thursday of this week, a TAB meeting will be conducted at the old mining town of Mount Isa. Now, I've been to a race meeting at the Mount and what a great day it was. Great for socialising and meeting the locals, having a cool ale or three, but not great for putning. Run on brown dirt, the races were very biased toward leaders with some horses carrying massive weights, a real horses for courses track. At Charleville last week, large, evenly matched fields abounded, so along with the dirt surface punters faced a herculian task to finish in front of the leger. I know a few punters who, starved of a punt on Queensland races, had bets at Charleville just for the sake of it, despite not knowing any of the horses, most of the jockeys, nor knowing the form or how the track might play. Good luck to QR for putting on these TAB meeting in an endeavour to salvage lost turnover, however, most are truely not punting propositions, and punters must take extreme care if they decide to outlay their cash on these meetings. Stick to Rocky, Mackay, Townsville and Cairns where we know the horses, know how the tracks play, and which form lines will stand up.
The "closed" NSW TAB meetings that have appeared since the outbreak of EI are even worse for punters. Mainly because most horses racing have not raced for several months, giving the punter little hope of knowing if each individual horse is fit enough to win their race. Not only that, the fields are massive, giving horses drawn out wide virtually no chance of figuring in the finish. Then last Friday, punters were given a meeting at Canberra, the first for two years on their course proper. Now, because of EI, and horse movement restrictions, most of the horses at Canberra had been racing on the Acton (inside) track at Canberra. On Friday, we saw form reversals galore as horses who were handling the Acton surface, found the grass too difficult for them, and conversely plenty of horses who struggled on the Acton, found a new lease of life back on grass. What a conundrum for punters !! Winning on the punt anywhere in NSW will be a nearly impossible task for the punter until racing resumes a normal schedule, we certainly will not be punting on any NSW race until at February, possibly longer.
One may wonder how the EI crisis could affect Victorian racing. They have totally ignored NSW and Qld to continue on regardless as close to their normal schedule as possible. However, we have noticed a few things occurring out of the norm. Firstly, over the early wekks of EI, say 25 August to mid September, there were a lot of meetings abandoned. For example instead of having 2 or 3 meetings on a Saturday or Sunday, only one was held. Now this meant plenty of horses were missing runs, and in the early days plenty of horses missed some work as well. This caused a lot of upset results, and still is. The fitter horses, those who didn't miss work, and continued to race are now much fitter than those who did not race. Now also consider the fact that NSW horses from Albury, Wagga etc are unable to travel across the border to race in Victoria as they normally would, as was the case with South Australian horses earlier in the crisis. What this has done, is encourage the trainers with larger stables to travel further around Victoria to try to win a race with their horses. So we see trainers like Lee Freedman, Colin Alderson, Peter Moody etc turning up at obscure meetings. Now their horse may win, they may not, but this throws form out the window not only for these races, but their next couple of starts. I have noticed a couple of Freedman horses win in the bush lately, he then puts them straight into a city race and they fail miserably, usually well in the market too. Punters see Freedman with a last start maiden winner for example racing at Sandown, and thinks Freedman must have an opinion of the horse bringing him straight to town after an easy kill in the bush. These types of horses are not going on with the job when facing tougher assignments as would normally be expected. And the massive form reversals and upsets during the Spring carnival so far have been glaring. Whether this has anything to do with EI, the fact no Qld or NSW horses are in Victoria for the carnival, whether some horses have taken longer to get fitter, it is hard to say, however never before has their been so many upset reults in the major races as we have seen so far this Spring. And this will continue.
The impact in other states, it must be said has been negligible. However another issue that has caused issues for punters is the introduction of Ratings Based races in SA, WA and Tasmania. These races continually turn up unusual results, as they have done in Victoria and NSW for the past 12 months. Treat these races as if they are a class race, using the most number of wins by a horse in the race as the real class. For example, in an RB72 races, of the 12 starters, the top weight has the most number of previous wins at 5, treat the race as a "pseudo" Class 5 race. So a horse who won a miaden at it's last start, racing against Class 5 or Class 4 horses, will usually struggle to win, despite any favours in the weights. And remember, the weights are decided on the horses rating, not decided on what class of horse he really is. A horse in this RB72 race might be a Class 1 horses, however has a rating of 70, therefore will still carry close to top weight, usually at least 57kg. And we would not want to be backing a Class 1 horse against Class 5 horses with almost top weight. Use 1.5 kg for each class a horse is below the horse with the most number of wins. Now this might seem like an exhorbitant amount, however it will save you backing horses unless they are most favourably weighted. So if a Class 5 horse is against a Class 1 horse, you should only back the class 1 horse if he gets at least 6kg from the Class 5 horse, and this will rarely happen. Of course, sometimes the Class 1 horse will win because he is an up and comer at his peak whereas the Class 5 horse is older and leg weary, however in the long term you will go broke backing a class 1 horse against horses who are of higher grade. Mares get a distinct advantage in these races too, usually a 2.5kg advantage which is equal to around 1.7 lengths. That is quite a lot considering they are rated on the same level, yet receive such a huge weight advantage.
We averaged almost 65 bets per month last racing season, showing an overall profit of just over 2% on turnover. In August we had only 30 bets, in September only 43, and look like having around the 40 mark for October well down on last years average. We are slightly in the positive for the year so far, after losing in August and making it up since then. However, having fewer bets due to EI and the RB races will in the long term affect our overall profits.
Not much we can do other than to be ultra patient and wait for the good things to come along. Come along they still do, however not as frequently as we are used to. Punters should be betting on meetings where there has been little or no disruption to racing. Races in WA, SA, North Eastern Queensland are certainly still good profitable betting propositions. Meetings in NSW, Western Queensland are certainly not betting propositions. Meetings in Victoria should be attacked with extreme caution at present, especially where the fields are inordinately large, try to stick to races which have smaller fields and there are only a couple of realistic chances in the race. And beware of RB races in all states, analyse the form and weights very carefully before deciding to bet on them.
PASS members are showing nice profits this racing year, with profit levels over 33% overall so far from only 25 selections. Our horses to follow are flying too with recent Group winners like Bon Hoffa and Master O'Reilly. So if you would like to be part of the action here at PASS, please contact us profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will show you how to become involved.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Sunday, September 9, 2007
Weekend Winners
What a weekend for members of PASS this weekend. In total seven horses were mentioned in our emails to clients, all provided collects for our members with 6 winning and the other running the quinella as we predicted.
On Saturday our special for the day was Marasco who was finally in the right race for him to win. Amazingly he got out to $2.80 with fixed odds bookies which we eagerly snapped up, although the best tote was only $2.30. Our other good thing at Belmont also saluted in Special Reserve however her odds were far more prohibitve paying $1.60 top tote.
Our two horses to follow both raced at Flemington on Saturday, both put up outstanding performances and both won at good odds. Bon Hoffa missed the kick in the Bobby Lewis Group 3 Handicap, however had the field covered at the distance and won comfortably. The 5yo colt payed extremely well on all totes seeing us averaging $4.83 for the win. Master O'Reilly put up an incredible effort to win the last race at Flemington. He came from last, giving the leaders 20 lengths at the half way mark, was pushed 10 deep on the turn then defied the leader bias on the day to storm home down the outside to win by over 3 lengths at the finish. We averaged better than $3.80 on our win bets to top of an excellent day of punting. Both these horses will win Group 1 races during the spring and should be followed.
On Sunday, we shifted out eyes to the time honoured Mindarie Halidon Cup in South Australia. PASS members had a fantastic win on a horse named Space Needle a few weeks back when he won at Gawler paying well over $15 for the win. He didn't let us down in the Cup either and he stormed home to get up in the last bound to win paying $3.70 on most totes around the country.
Finally in our email on Sunday we discussed the 3yo 1400m Showcase race run at Bendigo. PASS members were told the best chance in the race was Viatorian who won and paid $8.60 for the win top tote. Members were also told only one horse, Dane The Rave, had any chance of beating him and were encouraged to quinella the two horses. Well history tells us Dane the Rave ran second to indeed quinella the race with most totes paying almost $10 for that exotic.
So a magnificent punting weekend for all our members and with the big Spring carnival races on the horizon there are plenty more winners coming up in the near future. We are currently running at a profit level of over 45% with our first selections, this does not include out Stable Horses and our exotic suggestions.
So if you would like to join the winners here at PASS, contact us at profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will give you the opportunity to back more winners.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
On Saturday our special for the day was Marasco who was finally in the right race for him to win. Amazingly he got out to $2.80 with fixed odds bookies which we eagerly snapped up, although the best tote was only $2.30. Our other good thing at Belmont also saluted in Special Reserve however her odds were far more prohibitve paying $1.60 top tote.
Our two horses to follow both raced at Flemington on Saturday, both put up outstanding performances and both won at good odds. Bon Hoffa missed the kick in the Bobby Lewis Group 3 Handicap, however had the field covered at the distance and won comfortably. The 5yo colt payed extremely well on all totes seeing us averaging $4.83 for the win. Master O'Reilly put up an incredible effort to win the last race at Flemington. He came from last, giving the leaders 20 lengths at the half way mark, was pushed 10 deep on the turn then defied the leader bias on the day to storm home down the outside to win by over 3 lengths at the finish. We averaged better than $3.80 on our win bets to top of an excellent day of punting. Both these horses will win Group 1 races during the spring and should be followed.
On Sunday, we shifted out eyes to the time honoured Mindarie Halidon Cup in South Australia. PASS members had a fantastic win on a horse named Space Needle a few weeks back when he won at Gawler paying well over $15 for the win. He didn't let us down in the Cup either and he stormed home to get up in the last bound to win paying $3.70 on most totes around the country.
Finally in our email on Sunday we discussed the 3yo 1400m Showcase race run at Bendigo. PASS members were told the best chance in the race was Viatorian who won and paid $8.60 for the win top tote. Members were also told only one horse, Dane The Rave, had any chance of beating him and were encouraged to quinella the two horses. Well history tells us Dane the Rave ran second to indeed quinella the race with most totes paying almost $10 for that exotic.
So a magnificent punting weekend for all our members and with the big Spring carnival races on the horizon there are plenty more winners coming up in the near future. We are currently running at a profit level of over 45% with our first selections, this does not include out Stable Horses and our exotic suggestions.
So if you would like to join the winners here at PASS, contact us at profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will give you the opportunity to back more winners.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
Various Items
EI UPDATE
Firstly what terrific news that both the inflated temperatures in Tasmania and at Brett Cavanagh's stable in Albury tested negative to EI. This means containment is working to a point.
However, let's get a few things into perspective. The EI virus may be spread in various ways, through horses coming into contact with each other, by human's carrying it on their person or clothing, via horse transport vehicles or even through the atmosphere over short distances say no further than 5km. It must be said that the EI virus cannot jump Bass Straight, after of course hurdling the entire state of Victoria, to miraculously infect horses in the Apple Isle. The Ei virus also cannot fly through the air for over 300km to arrive at a thoroughbred horse stable in Albury, when the closest known outbreak of the disease was in Nowra. We understand every precaution must be taken, and all these horses with raised temperatures must be tested just to make sure, however EI infiltrating Tasmania is farcical to say the least. Not to mention the incubatiuon period is 5 days, so if your horse is EI free for 5 days, and has not come into contact with anything or anyone who is carryong the virus, then that horse cannot catch the virus. We wish this type of hysteria would follow on to precautions that should be being taken each and every minute of every day by anyone in contact with equines. So please feelf ree to be hysterical in taking every precaution to stop the spread of the virus.
We urge everyone who has contact with horses, especially thoroughbreds to take all precautions to stop the spread of the virus. We control our own destiny to a point in all of this. The virus will only spread with human assistance, and this includes keeping all horses away from others that may either carry or spread the virus. We can stop the spread, do you best to assist.
PUNTING
Been a very lean trot for us here at PASS in the past few weeks. We are on a six straight losing streak and our selections have not even been getting close lately. However this is all part and parcel of the punting caper and we have to be patient. After starting August sensationally, the middle part was woeful and we will be working hard to improve.
Form lines since the outbreak of EI may take a while to really settle down. Plenty of horses have missed work, some missing a full week and it will take some time for those horses to catch up. What we saw at Caulfield on Saturday was the majority of winners came from trainers who have their own private training tracks where their horses had not missed vital work. David Hayes with Miss Finland, Lee Freedman with Royal Ascher, even the $70 chance Shadow is trained privately and had not missed a days work. Be very careful in weeks to come, that horses like El Segundo and Haradasun don't improve dramatically on their performances on Saturday and turn the tables on the likes of Miss Finland. Please, we are not knocking Miss Finland, only saying she may have had a distinct advantage on Saturday in the Memsie Stakes.
Punters must also be careful once racing resumes in both Queensland and NSW. The meeting today at the Gold Coast is a typical example, with huge fields, evenly matched fields with punters having little or no idea which horses have coped with stable life and lack of work over the past 2 weeks. Put that together with plenty of horses drawing badly due to big fields, a bit of rain around, and it could be a disaster for the punter. The Sunshine Coast will be similar tomorrow although the fields are certainly not as large although the track will be rain affected.
So punters must bet with extreme caution over the next few weeks until form lines settle down and horses regain full fitness.
If you would like to receive our emails and text messages with our selections, please contact us here at PASS on profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will make them available to you.
Good luck and profitable punting to all and please, if you are in regualr contact with equines, then please take very advisable precaution to stop the spread of EI.
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
EI Update
With over half the equine population of Royal Randwick infected with EI, over 300 individual properties in NSW affected and reports this morning a thoroughbred mare and foal in the upper Hunter Valley have been diagnosed with EI, it still appears some people are nor aware how dangerous this virus is.
Horse movement in NSW and Qld is banned and will be until no new cases have been diagnosed for a 5 day period. EI is spreading so rapidly it is only a matter of time before either you or someone you know are affected by EI. It is amazing how some people think that it won't happen to them so they don't need to take precautions.
We receive some excellent emails from authorities on this issue and although we generally prefer not to cut and paste articles, because this issue is so severe, we will today. THese make extremely interesting reading for everyone in the industry.
Firstly from BioSecurity in Queensland:-
Prevent the spread
There are things you can do right now to help prevent spread to your property. Check the DPI&F website for more tips, but the most important things are:
Abide by the standstill. Remember, it is illegal to move any horses from your property until notified;
Keep you horses at least 50 metres away from other horses;
Don't handle other people's horses;
Don't share equipment.
More tips for protecting your property
Using your horse float/truck
Vehicles used for transporting horses such as horse floats and trucks are not under the standstill order. However, the following applies:
If your vehicle (float/truck) has been used for moving horses, it will need to be cleaned and disinfected before using again.
If your vehicle (float/truck) is on a quarantined property, you can not move it unless it has been cleaned and disinfected under supervision by Biosecurity Queensland.
If your vehicle (float/truck) has never been used to transport horses (I.e. it's brand new) there is no requirement to clean and disinfect it prior to use.
How to disinfect your vehicle:
Clean thoroughly to remove all dirt, faecal matter and organic material.
Disinfect cleaned surfaces with soap or detergent or disinfectant (not a mixture).
More about decontamination
Standstill remains
The standstill relates to ALL horses and applies to ALL recreational and commercial horse owners. It is still in place in Queensland.
Even if you have a number of properties listed under the one PIC, horses can't move from the boundaries of the property they are on, and must not cross any road.
Check you know everything about the standstill
Manure and other horse products
Under the standstill horse manure and waste bedding cannot be moved off a property but you can use it on your own property for gardening providing it is not going to come in contact with horses.
It must not be moved on or off properties under the Standstill order. Therefore it cannot be sold on the side of the road. Any bags on the side of the road should be removed from sale and moved back into the property they are on.
Commercial exemptions exist. Check the DPI&F website.
The disposal of manure on quarantined properties will be managed under supervision of Biosecurity Queensland Officers.
The virus can be spread by moving animal matter including semen and other horse products. The standstill also relates to horse products.
More about manure and other horse products
Horse services
Horse services such as dentistry, farriery, chiropractic and non-essential vetinary services should only be conducted in emergency situations. This will help minimise the spread of Equine Influenza.
Water restrictions and Equine Influenza
Queenslanders are reminded restrictions do not apply to reasonable actions taken to prevent material risks associated with a hazard to health such as Equine Influenza.
Horses from NSW
Anyone with information about horses bought to Queensland from NSW since 08 August needs to contact DPI&F on 13 25 23.
This is particularly important if horses left NSW between 14 August and 26 August.
Biosecurity Queensland has already undertaken an extensive tracing program but is now double checking to see if any animals have been missed.
Thank-you for reporting suspicious symptoms
Biosecurity Queensland is busy undertaking trace backs and following up reports of horses with suspicious symptoms.
Thank-you to everyone for your vigilance in reporting these suspected cases. Remember, Equine Influenza is a Notifiable Disease in Queensland.
Share this important information
Secondly from the Horse Industry Council:-
Equine Influenza – where to from here?
It is 10 days since we knew that flu was in the general population, how are we doing?
We have 300 properties in NSW expected to get EI in the near future - not bad considering there were 250 horses at the first event where EI was spread and before the lockdown occurred. Most of these cases are in areas where there is a high density of horses and properties are small. We are expecting and identifying spread from property to property over fences and by airborne movement because the disease is highly infectious. It may be that all horses become infected in high density areas. This will impose a huge workload on the NSW Control Centres - they are under pressure but responding well.
The disease will burn itself out if movements are controlled. The disease came in at the worst possible time. Spread is best under winter conditions. There will be less property to property spread in summer due to temperature and UV effects.
There are calls to let the disease run. All horse owners need to resist this and to support the State DPI’s to continue the control effort. We are not in a similar position to overseas countries.
We have no pool of vaccinated horses - all ours are naive and highly susceptible. If we let it go now we will have deaths of 10 - 40% of young foals - there are thousands out there at this time. It will not be just the TB's - all will get it. There will not be 300 infected properties, there will be more like 30,000.
NSW and Queensland are suffering now. If flu gets away and there is no stand still, it will be in Melbourne this week and we can kiss the spring carnival and Melbourne Cup goodbye. All horse events will be cancelled nationally. If the positions were reversed, would NSW horse people want the Victorians to do that to us?
Some people are saying vaccinate. With what? It will be weeks before we can get supplies of the right vaccine. Vaccination is far from 100% - otherwise EI would not have got here in the first place. If we vaccinate we will still be subject to a standstill until all horses are vaccinated and become immune. Do you think governments are going to pay for the vaccination of all horses every 6 months? Who is going to pay for that?
Those that have been overseas know that living with flu means issuing horses with passports at a cost of at least $200 each and then vaccinating every 6 months. The vaccine costs about $30 plus vet costs. Then at every event you have to show paperwork proving current vaccination status. People running events will have to find extra people to check the paperwork. Vaccination might not prove a huge disadvantage to wealthy TB breeders or owners but it will have a huge effect on the battlers. It will change horse ownership as we know it in Australia.
Authorities are amazed at the level of support shown by horse owners. This needs to continue at 100%. A small vocal group complaining about something could quickly evaporate the support shown by the state governments. The Feds are ducking for cover. The truth will come out but probably after the election. Keep the faith.
If you are not a member, please join the AHIC. Membership has not been a prerequisite for registering on the Horse Emergency Contact Database but we need more support to cover our costs. Emails are free but running the website costs real dollars. If we send out an emergency SMS to 5000 people it will cost $1250 of our limited funds. We will need over 60 new individual members just to pay for that.
Many thanks.
Please, this is critical information everyone with horses should understand and follow. Pass it onto everyone you know with horses. The sooner we stop the spread, the sooner we cna go back to life as we used to know it.
Horse movement in NSW and Qld is banned and will be until no new cases have been diagnosed for a 5 day period. EI is spreading so rapidly it is only a matter of time before either you or someone you know are affected by EI. It is amazing how some people think that it won't happen to them so they don't need to take precautions.
We receive some excellent emails from authorities on this issue and although we generally prefer not to cut and paste articles, because this issue is so severe, we will today. THese make extremely interesting reading for everyone in the industry.
Firstly from BioSecurity in Queensland:-
Prevent the spread
There are things you can do right now to help prevent spread to your property. Check the DPI&F website for more tips, but the most important things are:
Abide by the standstill. Remember, it is illegal to move any horses from your property until notified;
Keep you horses at least 50 metres away from other horses;
Don't handle other people's horses;
Don't share equipment.
More tips for protecting your property
Using your horse float/truck
Vehicles used for transporting horses such as horse floats and trucks are not under the standstill order. However, the following applies:
If your vehicle (float/truck) has been used for moving horses, it will need to be cleaned and disinfected before using again.
If your vehicle (float/truck) is on a quarantined property, you can not move it unless it has been cleaned and disinfected under supervision by Biosecurity Queensland.
If your vehicle (float/truck) has never been used to transport horses (I.e. it's brand new) there is no requirement to clean and disinfect it prior to use.
How to disinfect your vehicle:
Clean thoroughly to remove all dirt, faecal matter and organic material.
Disinfect cleaned surfaces with soap or detergent or disinfectant (not a mixture).
More about decontamination
Standstill remains
The standstill relates to ALL horses and applies to ALL recreational and commercial horse owners. It is still in place in Queensland.
Even if you have a number of properties listed under the one PIC, horses can't move from the boundaries of the property they are on, and must not cross any road.
Check you know everything about the standstill
Manure and other horse products
Under the standstill horse manure and waste bedding cannot be moved off a property but you can use it on your own property for gardening providing it is not going to come in contact with horses.
It must not be moved on or off properties under the Standstill order. Therefore it cannot be sold on the side of the road. Any bags on the side of the road should be removed from sale and moved back into the property they are on.
Commercial exemptions exist. Check the DPI&F website.
The disposal of manure on quarantined properties will be managed under supervision of Biosecurity Queensland Officers.
The virus can be spread by moving animal matter including semen and other horse products. The standstill also relates to horse products.
More about manure and other horse products
Horse services
Horse services such as dentistry, farriery, chiropractic and non-essential vetinary services should only be conducted in emergency situations. This will help minimise the spread of Equine Influenza.
Water restrictions and Equine Influenza
Queenslanders are reminded restrictions do not apply to reasonable actions taken to prevent material risks associated with a hazard to health such as Equine Influenza.
Horses from NSW
Anyone with information about horses bought to Queensland from NSW since 08 August needs to contact DPI&F on 13 25 23.
This is particularly important if horses left NSW between 14 August and 26 August.
Biosecurity Queensland has already undertaken an extensive tracing program but is now double checking to see if any animals have been missed.
Thank-you for reporting suspicious symptoms
Biosecurity Queensland is busy undertaking trace backs and following up reports of horses with suspicious symptoms.
Thank-you to everyone for your vigilance in reporting these suspected cases. Remember, Equine Influenza is a Notifiable Disease in Queensland.
Share this important information
Secondly from the Horse Industry Council:-
Equine Influenza – where to from here?
It is 10 days since we knew that flu was in the general population, how are we doing?
We have 300 properties in NSW expected to get EI in the near future - not bad considering there were 250 horses at the first event where EI was spread and before the lockdown occurred. Most of these cases are in areas where there is a high density of horses and properties are small. We are expecting and identifying spread from property to property over fences and by airborne movement because the disease is highly infectious. It may be that all horses become infected in high density areas. This will impose a huge workload on the NSW Control Centres - they are under pressure but responding well.
The disease will burn itself out if movements are controlled. The disease came in at the worst possible time. Spread is best under winter conditions. There will be less property to property spread in summer due to temperature and UV effects.
There are calls to let the disease run. All horse owners need to resist this and to support the State DPI’s to continue the control effort. We are not in a similar position to overseas countries.
We have no pool of vaccinated horses - all ours are naive and highly susceptible. If we let it go now we will have deaths of 10 - 40% of young foals - there are thousands out there at this time. It will not be just the TB's - all will get it. There will not be 300 infected properties, there will be more like 30,000.
NSW and Queensland are suffering now. If flu gets away and there is no stand still, it will be in Melbourne this week and we can kiss the spring carnival and Melbourne Cup goodbye. All horse events will be cancelled nationally. If the positions were reversed, would NSW horse people want the Victorians to do that to us?
Some people are saying vaccinate. With what? It will be weeks before we can get supplies of the right vaccine. Vaccination is far from 100% - otherwise EI would not have got here in the first place. If we vaccinate we will still be subject to a standstill until all horses are vaccinated and become immune. Do you think governments are going to pay for the vaccination of all horses every 6 months? Who is going to pay for that?
Those that have been overseas know that living with flu means issuing horses with passports at a cost of at least $200 each and then vaccinating every 6 months. The vaccine costs about $30 plus vet costs. Then at every event you have to show paperwork proving current vaccination status. People running events will have to find extra people to check the paperwork. Vaccination might not prove a huge disadvantage to wealthy TB breeders or owners but it will have a huge effect on the battlers. It will change horse ownership as we know it in Australia.
Authorities are amazed at the level of support shown by horse owners. This needs to continue at 100%. A small vocal group complaining about something could quickly evaporate the support shown by the state governments. The Feds are ducking for cover. The truth will come out but probably after the election. Keep the faith.
If you are not a member, please join the AHIC. Membership has not been a prerequisite for registering on the Horse Emergency Contact Database but we need more support to cover our costs. Emails are free but running the website costs real dollars. If we send out an emergency SMS to 5000 people it will cost $1250 of our limited funds. We will need over 60 new individual members just to pay for that.
Many thanks.
Please, this is critical information everyone with horses should understand and follow. Pass it onto everyone you know with horses. The sooner we stop the spread, the sooner we cna go back to life as we used to know it.
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
EQUINE INFLUENZA
The current situation in Australia in regards to EI is the most catastrophic occurrence ever to inflict our shores. The impact on the thoroughbred racing industry is an absolute disaster, despite the fact no equine thoroughbreds have been infected by the virus. Costs arising from will be far reaching and cover years, not just days, weeks and months.
Firstly let me say, that the Government must conduct a full enquiry as to how the virus arrived in Australia, and how it was spread. And they must then put into place procedures to ensure this never happens again.
Forgetting betting turnover, think about how many people and their incomes this is affecting. There has been no horse racing since last Friday, with NSW & Queensland racing suspended indefinately, no track work until this morning, no movement of any horses anywhere in Australia since Saturday. So let's list a few of the people affected whose incomes have been diminished.
Racehorse trainers & jockeys
Trackwork riders, stablehands & strappers
Equine Transport Companies
Farriers, Dentists and Veterinarians
Breeding Studs Farms, Horse Breakers & Agistment Properties
TAB Agencies
Bookmakers
Profesional Punters
Catering Companies that operate on race courses
Casual Staff that work at race courses on race days
Bloodstock Agents
All these people and their employees are badly affected, but there are further ramifications along the line. Owners are paying ut money for their horses to be in stables even though very few can be worked or raced. Due to the lack of racing advertising revenue for race clubs and sponsorship will not be received. Any advertising clubs to in the media has stopped causing reduced incomes for newspapers, television and radio, especially hard hit in regional areas. Flow on affects from all these issues result in reduced expenditure by race clubs on things such as extensions, track upgrades etc.
In fact, leaving TAB turnover alone for the moment, I doubt if the real cost or affect will ever be known as the flow on from reduction of income this week and in the upcoming weeks could never be accurately measured.
Personally, our income has all but ceased. We currently have 3 horses "Sold", however as they cannot be moved (all are in NSW or Qld) the sales will not go ahead at this stage. And very few if any person wants to purchase a horse unless they are fully guaranteed the horse does not have EI. So no bloodstock sales are happening at present.
Massie Lodge is locked down at present, a personal decision made by Helen and myself merely as a precaution. We have several clients wanting to send horses here for a spell, however with no transport allowed to move horses, we are unable to receive the clients horses. We have plenty of room here to accept new residents, however we cannot accept any.
And finally punting as we know it has ceased indefinately. Not only is there no thoroughbreds races to bet on, when racing finally does recommence, extreme caution will be required before any consideration is given to outlaying money on thoroughbreds. So many horses have missed vital work, not raced for longer periods than normal we will not risk betting on horses we are not confident are fit enough to win.
And finally we must give Go Maz a mention. The poor bloke is jumping out of his skin and ready to race. His career has been agonizingly halted for yet another reason. One would think cheating death on 3 occasions, dodging the dogger, then when he is finally ready to go, he firstly encounters an abandoned meeting due to rain, now and EI epidemic never heard of before in Australia. What will happen to the poor little fella next? He will be nominated for a 1200m maiden at grafton on 5 Septmeber, so let's hope racing in NSW resumes in time for him to take his palce in the field.
We urge everyone to adhere to all rules and regualtions instigated by State Governments and the DPI. Please do not move any horse of any breed anywhere until clearance is given by the DPI. Take extreme precautions to protect yourself and your horses if you handle equines on a regular basis. Do not allow this virus to spread any further.
This is the biggest catastrophe to ever occur in our industry, please take every possible measure to contain it now.
Firstly let me say, that the Government must conduct a full enquiry as to how the virus arrived in Australia, and how it was spread. And they must then put into place procedures to ensure this never happens again.
Forgetting betting turnover, think about how many people and their incomes this is affecting. There has been no horse racing since last Friday, with NSW & Queensland racing suspended indefinately, no track work until this morning, no movement of any horses anywhere in Australia since Saturday. So let's list a few of the people affected whose incomes have been diminished.
Racehorse trainers & jockeys
Trackwork riders, stablehands & strappers
Equine Transport Companies
Farriers, Dentists and Veterinarians
Breeding Studs Farms, Horse Breakers & Agistment Properties
TAB Agencies
Bookmakers
Profesional Punters
Catering Companies that operate on race courses
Casual Staff that work at race courses on race days
Bloodstock Agents
All these people and their employees are badly affected, but there are further ramifications along the line. Owners are paying ut money for their horses to be in stables even though very few can be worked or raced. Due to the lack of racing advertising revenue for race clubs and sponsorship will not be received. Any advertising clubs to in the media has stopped causing reduced incomes for newspapers, television and radio, especially hard hit in regional areas. Flow on affects from all these issues result in reduced expenditure by race clubs on things such as extensions, track upgrades etc.
In fact, leaving TAB turnover alone for the moment, I doubt if the real cost or affect will ever be known as the flow on from reduction of income this week and in the upcoming weeks could never be accurately measured.
Personally, our income has all but ceased. We currently have 3 horses "Sold", however as they cannot be moved (all are in NSW or Qld) the sales will not go ahead at this stage. And very few if any person wants to purchase a horse unless they are fully guaranteed the horse does not have EI. So no bloodstock sales are happening at present.
Massie Lodge is locked down at present, a personal decision made by Helen and myself merely as a precaution. We have several clients wanting to send horses here for a spell, however with no transport allowed to move horses, we are unable to receive the clients horses. We have plenty of room here to accept new residents, however we cannot accept any.
And finally punting as we know it has ceased indefinately. Not only is there no thoroughbreds races to bet on, when racing finally does recommence, extreme caution will be required before any consideration is given to outlaying money on thoroughbreds. So many horses have missed vital work, not raced for longer periods than normal we will not risk betting on horses we are not confident are fit enough to win.
And finally we must give Go Maz a mention. The poor bloke is jumping out of his skin and ready to race. His career has been agonizingly halted for yet another reason. One would think cheating death on 3 occasions, dodging the dogger, then when he is finally ready to go, he firstly encounters an abandoned meeting due to rain, now and EI epidemic never heard of before in Australia. What will happen to the poor little fella next? He will be nominated for a 1200m maiden at grafton on 5 Septmeber, so let's hope racing in NSW resumes in time for him to take his palce in the field.
We urge everyone to adhere to all rules and regualtions instigated by State Governments and the DPI. Please do not move any horse of any breed anywhere until clearance is given by the DPI. Take extreme precautions to protect yourself and your horses if you handle equines on a regular basis. Do not allow this virus to spread any further.
This is the biggest catastrophe to ever occur in our industry, please take every possible measure to contain it now.
Friday, August 24, 2007
Maz Update
Unfortunately, Lismore races were abandoned on Monday, so we have to sit and wait patiently for another chance for Maz to get to the races. This opportunity should arive on Tuesday at Grafton, as long as the rain eases off in the area. Maz has been accepted for a 1200m Maiden at Grafton, so we will head down there to cheer him home. He has drawn poorly in barrier 15, however the run will be over of great benefit and experience for him.
Go Maz !!!
Go Maz !!!
Monday, August 20, 2007
GO MAZ
Go Maz is due to have his first race start today at Lismore. Go Maz !!
GO MAZ – The Community’s Racehorse
Although yet to race the story surrounding Go Maz is already quite remarkable. He cheated death at least 3 times, dodged the knackery at the last minute and now due to the community support of an internet forum finds himself heading to the race track.
Go Maz is the son of a most uncommercial Gatsby x Belle Hareb mating, originally owned and managed by a passionate internet forum member, let's call him, “Fasteddy”. “Maz” as he has affectionately been known to his internet family and friends for the last 6 years (since inception) lost his mum just weeks following his birth. He struggled through the next 6 months on life’s edge, with life turning for the up when moved to boutique property Massie Lodge near Warwick in South East Qld. Dedication, love and care from Fasteddy and the property owners Helen and Evan Robinson saw Maz slowly put on weight and grow, and at 18 months he had matured into a healthy young colt about to embark on a potential racing career. Maz moved on to the breakers and a property north of Brisbane in preparation for racetrack dreams.
However tragedy again struck when on a stormy summers night with thunder and lightening threatening he took fright and unwittingly charged into a paddock boundary fence. His injuries were so severe he was forced to spend 4 weeks in an equine veterinary hospital to assist with his recovery, tended constantly by “Fasteddy’s” devotion. Maz then suffered an almost fatal dose of the scours, with serious consideration at one stage given to him being put down, however Fasteddy would have none of this. With Fasteddy's care and his own will and determination, amazingly the brown colt survived, finally returning to his paddock.
By this stage the heavy burden of vet, equine hospital and mounting agistment costs were taking their toll on Fasteddy who reluctantly was forced by debtors to list Maz in a monthly tried horse sale on the Gold Coast. After flirting with death on no less than three previous occasion once again Maz’s future looked very bleak, little alone any prospect of the racetrack.
Word spread as Eddy sadly advised his internet forum friends of the latest developments. “Maz” had long been a favourite friend and mascot to The New Horse Racing Community Forum (http://groups.msn.com/TheNewHorseRacingCommunityForum) as they had followed his path from mating onwards. Some had supported his syndicate from day one, while others had maintained regular interest and encouragement through his years of development. Helen and Evan Robinson, members of the forum and fond past carers of Maz decided to step in and purchase Maz at the sale, if for nothing else than to save him and allow him a happy life once again in a quite paddock at Massie Lodge. Community interest and support quickly grew amongst the internet forum members who now wanted to support the 4yr old and any possible chance of he at last venturing to the race track. And so the Maz Syndicate was formed, with many members far and wide (all parts of Australia, Japan and Asia) now banding together behind the community mascot generously donating funds to support an initial racing campaign.
At last “Maz” looked likely of kicking up his heels on a racetrack. Win, lose or draw it didn’t matter, all that everyone wanted now was for Maz to be given the opportunity to make it to the races. He was sent to trainer Phil Quinnell at Ballina on the NSW Nth Coast to assess and commence work. In lieu of his public support and following Maz he and his syndicate was formally registered and the brown gelding named – “Go Maz”.
And now his first race day draws near. To the surprise of trainer and supporters (but not to “Fasteddy”) Go Maz stepped out to win his maiden trail recently at Lismore. After all the years of hardship Go Maz “the community horse” is now set to achieve his goal to race against his peers for the very first time. Results now are not important, the fact that Maz has achieved so much and brought together so many against all odds in the “sport of kings” is the real story.
GO MAZ!!!!
The New Horse Racing Community Forum
http://groups.msn.com/TheNewHorseRacingCommunityForum
The New Horse Racing Community Forum is a MSN forum that grew from the original Racenet forum. TNHRCF is independent, driven by its members expression, discussion and content which is why today it is one of the most active MSN forums with over 400 hits each day and hundres of members contributing each month. Punters, trainers, owners, jockeys, breeders, journalists are all active participants, even the stewards admit to having a look.
Of note, TNHRCF has driven the public voice behind many key industry issues across the last 6 years, including leading the Betfair debate, uncovered the "Dubaigate" Tab post race betting scandal and contributed to the naming of many macots for members including the classy mare "Forum Floozie".
GO MAZ – The Community’s Racehorse
Although yet to race the story surrounding Go Maz is already quite remarkable. He cheated death at least 3 times, dodged the knackery at the last minute and now due to the community support of an internet forum finds himself heading to the race track.
Go Maz is the son of a most uncommercial Gatsby x Belle Hareb mating, originally owned and managed by a passionate internet forum member, let's call him, “Fasteddy”. “Maz” as he has affectionately been known to his internet family and friends for the last 6 years (since inception) lost his mum just weeks following his birth. He struggled through the next 6 months on life’s edge, with life turning for the up when moved to boutique property Massie Lodge near Warwick in South East Qld. Dedication, love and care from Fasteddy and the property owners Helen and Evan Robinson saw Maz slowly put on weight and grow, and at 18 months he had matured into a healthy young colt about to embark on a potential racing career. Maz moved on to the breakers and a property north of Brisbane in preparation for racetrack dreams.
However tragedy again struck when on a stormy summers night with thunder and lightening threatening he took fright and unwittingly charged into a paddock boundary fence. His injuries were so severe he was forced to spend 4 weeks in an equine veterinary hospital to assist with his recovery, tended constantly by “Fasteddy’s” devotion. Maz then suffered an almost fatal dose of the scours, with serious consideration at one stage given to him being put down, however Fasteddy would have none of this. With Fasteddy's care and his own will and determination, amazingly the brown colt survived, finally returning to his paddock.
By this stage the heavy burden of vet, equine hospital and mounting agistment costs were taking their toll on Fasteddy who reluctantly was forced by debtors to list Maz in a monthly tried horse sale on the Gold Coast. After flirting with death on no less than three previous occasion once again Maz’s future looked very bleak, little alone any prospect of the racetrack.
Word spread as Eddy sadly advised his internet forum friends of the latest developments. “Maz” had long been a favourite friend and mascot to The New Horse Racing Community Forum (http://groups.msn.com/TheNewHorseRacingCommunityForum) as they had followed his path from mating onwards. Some had supported his syndicate from day one, while others had maintained regular interest and encouragement through his years of development. Helen and Evan Robinson, members of the forum and fond past carers of Maz decided to step in and purchase Maz at the sale, if for nothing else than to save him and allow him a happy life once again in a quite paddock at Massie Lodge. Community interest and support quickly grew amongst the internet forum members who now wanted to support the 4yr old and any possible chance of he at last venturing to the race track. And so the Maz Syndicate was formed, with many members far and wide (all parts of Australia, Japan and Asia) now banding together behind the community mascot generously donating funds to support an initial racing campaign.
At last “Maz” looked likely of kicking up his heels on a racetrack. Win, lose or draw it didn’t matter, all that everyone wanted now was for Maz to be given the opportunity to make it to the races. He was sent to trainer Phil Quinnell at Ballina on the NSW Nth Coast to assess and commence work. In lieu of his public support and following Maz he and his syndicate was formally registered and the brown gelding named – “Go Maz”.
And now his first race day draws near. To the surprise of trainer and supporters (but not to “Fasteddy”) Go Maz stepped out to win his maiden trail recently at Lismore. After all the years of hardship Go Maz “the community horse” is now set to achieve his goal to race against his peers for the very first time. Results now are not important, the fact that Maz has achieved so much and brought together so many against all odds in the “sport of kings” is the real story.
GO MAZ!!!!
The New Horse Racing Community Forum
http://groups.msn.com/TheNewHorseRacingCommunityForum
The New Horse Racing Community Forum is a MSN forum that grew from the original Racenet forum. TNHRCF is independent, driven by its members expression, discussion and content which is why today it is one of the most active MSN forums with over 400 hits each day and hundres of members contributing each month. Punters, trainers, owners, jockeys, breeders, journalists are all active participants, even the stewards admit to having a look.
Of note, TNHRCF has driven the public voice behind many key industry issues across the last 6 years, including leading the Betfair debate, uncovered the "Dubaigate" Tab post race betting scandal and contributed to the naming of many macots for members including the classy mare "Forum Floozie".
Monday, August 6, 2007
A Trap For Young Players
What a magnificent start to the new punting season for all our followers here at PASS.
Our first three selections of the season have all saluted, Queen And Country ($7.00) Father Dex ($1.90) and Kid's Show ($3.70) healthily lining all our pockets with plenty of cash. On Saturday, our members were also privileged with mail that Apache Cat was absolutely flying giving him a great chance to upset boom horse Haradasun in the Bletchingly Stakes. The cat won comfortably assisting one member to snag the Melbourne quaddie. Lots more winners coming , especially with the tracks becoming drier along with the better horses reurning for the Spring.
Now, there is a significant anomoly in form that occurs this time every year that most punters either do not know about or choose to ignore it. Most horses when they race as 2yos, restrict their racing to their own age group with most clubs scheduling at least one 2yo race per week. However, as from August 1, these horses are now 3yo, meaning fewer opportunities for races restricted to their own age group. What we find happening at this time of the year is simple. A 2yo wins a race restricted to his own age in late July, however after 1 August he is now considered a 3yo therefore having race against older, more mature and seasoned opponents. Most of these recently turned 3yos, are not really 3yo at all, those being born in October, November or Decenber, are not really 3yo until their original foaling dates arrives on the calendar.
These newly turned 3yos are at a huge disadvantage against 4, 5 and 6yos maturity and size wise thus will always have difficulty beating them in a race. There are always a few exceptions to every rule, and if Sunline reincarnated is running around as a newly turned 3yo filly, then she would defeat anything she runs against. However, there are not too many reincarnated Sunlines or Lonhro's around at this time.
So please be very careful when assessing form. recently turned 3yos are at a distinct disadvantage when racing against open age, more seasoned gallopers. If a horse won a 2yo restricted race late in July, then turns up against open aged horses at their next assignment, odds are they will come up very short in the market, meaning they are way under the odds.
There has been two clear examples of this happening in the past 5 days. A 3yo filly named Le Jeune Fille started a $2.50 favourite in an open fillies and mares Class 1 at Hawkesbury on Thursday. She was beaten into second place by our winning PASS selection, Queen And Country. Then, at Gunnedah on Friday in the last race, a restricted 2yo winner from July, was again sent out a short priced favourite when racing against the older horses for the first time, missing a place.
These form lines will continue for at least three months, possibly until the new year, so please be particularly adroit to avoid these runners. In fact, they are generally good risks as very few will beat the older horses.
If you would like to join the winning team here at PASS, then please send us an email profeselections@austarnet.com.au so we can inform you how to obtain our services.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Our first three selections of the season have all saluted, Queen And Country ($7.00) Father Dex ($1.90) and Kid's Show ($3.70) healthily lining all our pockets with plenty of cash. On Saturday, our members were also privileged with mail that Apache Cat was absolutely flying giving him a great chance to upset boom horse Haradasun in the Bletchingly Stakes. The cat won comfortably assisting one member to snag the Melbourne quaddie. Lots more winners coming , especially with the tracks becoming drier along with the better horses reurning for the Spring.
Now, there is a significant anomoly in form that occurs this time every year that most punters either do not know about or choose to ignore it. Most horses when they race as 2yos, restrict their racing to their own age group with most clubs scheduling at least one 2yo race per week. However, as from August 1, these horses are now 3yo, meaning fewer opportunities for races restricted to their own age group. What we find happening at this time of the year is simple. A 2yo wins a race restricted to his own age in late July, however after 1 August he is now considered a 3yo therefore having race against older, more mature and seasoned opponents. Most of these recently turned 3yos, are not really 3yo at all, those being born in October, November or Decenber, are not really 3yo until their original foaling dates arrives on the calendar.
These newly turned 3yos are at a huge disadvantage against 4, 5 and 6yos maturity and size wise thus will always have difficulty beating them in a race. There are always a few exceptions to every rule, and if Sunline reincarnated is running around as a newly turned 3yo filly, then she would defeat anything she runs against. However, there are not too many reincarnated Sunlines or Lonhro's around at this time.
So please be very careful when assessing form. recently turned 3yos are at a distinct disadvantage when racing against open age, more seasoned gallopers. If a horse won a 2yo restricted race late in July, then turns up against open aged horses at their next assignment, odds are they will come up very short in the market, meaning they are way under the odds.
There has been two clear examples of this happening in the past 5 days. A 3yo filly named Le Jeune Fille started a $2.50 favourite in an open fillies and mares Class 1 at Hawkesbury on Thursday. She was beaten into second place by our winning PASS selection, Queen And Country. Then, at Gunnedah on Friday in the last race, a restricted 2yo winner from July, was again sent out a short priced favourite when racing against the older horses for the first time, missing a place.
These form lines will continue for at least three months, possibly until the new year, so please be particularly adroit to avoid these runners. In fact, they are generally good risks as very few will beat the older horses.
If you would like to join the winning team here at PASS, then please send us an email profeselections@austarnet.com.au so we can inform you how to obtain our services.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Thursday, August 2, 2007
Results For The Racing Season
July 31 brought about the end to yet another racing season along with the commecement of the new racing year.
We have had a most successful racing season showing profits of almost 20% on turnover across the board using a level stake. In total we have provided 73 winners from 162 selections at an average winning price of just over $2.65. After a full racing season, it is hard to imagine any other service providing consistent winners as we do every week here at PASS.
There have been several highlights, however our recent successes are one that should be noted. From our last 24 selections we have served up no less than 14 winners at an average winning price of over $2.62, so all our members finished off the racing year with full wallets.
Our most consistent winner this year was probably the Western Australian Beat The Storm, who we followed with great success culminating in a Group 3 victory at Belmont paying the juicy odds of $4.60 top tote. He won 4 times for us with the next closest being Not A Copy the handy Victorian provincial horse who saluted on three separate occasions earlier in the year. Our highest winning dividend went to Incentate who won the Hanging Rock Cup on Australia Day paying over $7 across the country.
So a most successful year was had by all members, and we can sincerely promise we will do far better in 2007-2008.
If you would like to become a part of all the winners, please contact us here at profselections@austarnet.com.au so we cna assist you in profiting from the punt.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
We have had a most successful racing season showing profits of almost 20% on turnover across the board using a level stake. In total we have provided 73 winners from 162 selections at an average winning price of just over $2.65. After a full racing season, it is hard to imagine any other service providing consistent winners as we do every week here at PASS.
There have been several highlights, however our recent successes are one that should be noted. From our last 24 selections we have served up no less than 14 winners at an average winning price of over $2.62, so all our members finished off the racing year with full wallets.
Our most consistent winner this year was probably the Western Australian Beat The Storm, who we followed with great success culminating in a Group 3 victory at Belmont paying the juicy odds of $4.60 top tote. He won 4 times for us with the next closest being Not A Copy the handy Victorian provincial horse who saluted on three separate occasions earlier in the year. Our highest winning dividend went to Incentate who won the Hanging Rock Cup on Australia Day paying over $7 across the country.
So a most successful year was had by all members, and we can sincerely promise we will do far better in 2007-2008.
If you would like to become a part of all the winners, please contact us here at profselections@austarnet.com.au so we cna assist you in profiting from the punt.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Sunday, July 8, 2007
It is nice when we get it right. Puts you in a great frame of mind and gives you confidence to continue on the way you are going. Of our last 18 selections we have come up with 13 winners at an average wining price of $2.62 giving all our members plenty of warm winter cheer on these cool days.
Our selections for this season now number 154 with 71 winners all up. At an average winning price of just over $2.65 this gives a profit at level stakes of 22.29%. Not too many other services can boast a winning record of this magnitude oversuch a lengthy period of time.
Our main selection yesterday was a horse named Scenic Rule who ran in the last race at the Gold Coast. He looked the winner of the race after winning over the same course and distance at his previous run and only went up one class and 0.5kg on that 4.5 length win. Most of his rivals yesterday were first up from a spell, the main danger we thought being Borsha's Warrior who we predicted would lead and be carved up by a few from outside gates. Now although this din't go perfectly to plan, Scenic Rule did get a beautiful run in behind the speed, was steered clear at the top of the straight and proved a little too strong at the finish. A horse named Costa Smerelda was sensationally backed from $8 into $4.60 on track. However Scenic Rule had had two runs back from a spell was fit and in form, whereas Costa Smerelda was having his first run after a break and was not fit enough and this showed in the final 50 metres of the race. Costa Smerelda got a stitch in that final 50 metres and Scenic Rule finished strongly being the fitter of the two to win narrowly.
This is an important factor when assessing a race. A fit strong in form horse will usually beat a horse who has more ability however is racing for the first time in a preparation. It doesn't matter how many weeks work, or how many barrier trials a horse has had to fit himself for a first up assignment, race fitness will always come out on top unless the horse in question has literally lengths on the opposition. So always be happy to risk horses first up from a spell if you like a fit and in form horse. Of course there are exceptions to this rule as for every rule. Sunline will always beat a group of WFA horses first up, because she was just better than them, as would Lonhro. However, there not many horses running around with the ability of a Lonhro or a Sunline.
There is one ritual we always perform prior to coming up with a final selection. We do our form study every afternoon or evening for the following days racing. This can take anywhere from an hour up to four hours depending on how many meetings we look at. However there is one special facet of form study that is an invaluable tool and certainly stops us from backing a lot of losers. And that is a meticulous review every morning after scratchings and track conditions. It is easy to make mistakes when you first look at a race and many things can be overlooked. So it is imperative we review every race again the next morning to proove our assessments are correct. And this review is conducted slowly and carefuly so every facet of each race is thoroughly covered.
A classic example of this occurred yesterday when on Friday night we wrote down the name of a horse in Race 7 at the Gold Coast. However on closer review yesterday morning it was revealed that this horse not only jumped 400m in distance, it also jumped 2.5kg in weight from its previous start. Not only that this horse was starting from the second outside barrier so it was an obvious no bet for us. In fact, after another review of the race we found that another horse in the race had the credentials to win. Now we are not sure how we came up with the original selection, there is a possibility we simply wrote down the name of the wrong horse, nevertheless, a concentrated review on race day morning corrected the mistake of the previous evening and not only stopped us from backing a loser, but found us a nice winner at $4.90.
Everyone makes mistakes, that is well known and mistakes are very easy to make, we are only human. However to correct these mistakes before you outlay your hard earned money is the important lesson here. Don't take things for granted, review every day and correct your mistakes and you will find more winners and less losers.
And when you are backing more winners and less losers you feel on top of the world, invincible. You are in a great mood and this shows to the people around you because you are happy. And the people around you are ahppy and enjoy your company far more.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Our selections for this season now number 154 with 71 winners all up. At an average winning price of just over $2.65 this gives a profit at level stakes of 22.29%. Not too many other services can boast a winning record of this magnitude oversuch a lengthy period of time.
Our main selection yesterday was a horse named Scenic Rule who ran in the last race at the Gold Coast. He looked the winner of the race after winning over the same course and distance at his previous run and only went up one class and 0.5kg on that 4.5 length win. Most of his rivals yesterday were first up from a spell, the main danger we thought being Borsha's Warrior who we predicted would lead and be carved up by a few from outside gates. Now although this din't go perfectly to plan, Scenic Rule did get a beautiful run in behind the speed, was steered clear at the top of the straight and proved a little too strong at the finish. A horse named Costa Smerelda was sensationally backed from $8 into $4.60 on track. However Scenic Rule had had two runs back from a spell was fit and in form, whereas Costa Smerelda was having his first run after a break and was not fit enough and this showed in the final 50 metres of the race. Costa Smerelda got a stitch in that final 50 metres and Scenic Rule finished strongly being the fitter of the two to win narrowly.
This is an important factor when assessing a race. A fit strong in form horse will usually beat a horse who has more ability however is racing for the first time in a preparation. It doesn't matter how many weeks work, or how many barrier trials a horse has had to fit himself for a first up assignment, race fitness will always come out on top unless the horse in question has literally lengths on the opposition. So always be happy to risk horses first up from a spell if you like a fit and in form horse. Of course there are exceptions to this rule as for every rule. Sunline will always beat a group of WFA horses first up, because she was just better than them, as would Lonhro. However, there not many horses running around with the ability of a Lonhro or a Sunline.
There is one ritual we always perform prior to coming up with a final selection. We do our form study every afternoon or evening for the following days racing. This can take anywhere from an hour up to four hours depending on how many meetings we look at. However there is one special facet of form study that is an invaluable tool and certainly stops us from backing a lot of losers. And that is a meticulous review every morning after scratchings and track conditions. It is easy to make mistakes when you first look at a race and many things can be overlooked. So it is imperative we review every race again the next morning to proove our assessments are correct. And this review is conducted slowly and carefuly so every facet of each race is thoroughly covered.
A classic example of this occurred yesterday when on Friday night we wrote down the name of a horse in Race 7 at the Gold Coast. However on closer review yesterday morning it was revealed that this horse not only jumped 400m in distance, it also jumped 2.5kg in weight from its previous start. Not only that this horse was starting from the second outside barrier so it was an obvious no bet for us. In fact, after another review of the race we found that another horse in the race had the credentials to win. Now we are not sure how we came up with the original selection, there is a possibility we simply wrote down the name of the wrong horse, nevertheless, a concentrated review on race day morning corrected the mistake of the previous evening and not only stopped us from backing a loser, but found us a nice winner at $4.90.
Everyone makes mistakes, that is well known and mistakes are very easy to make, we are only human. However to correct these mistakes before you outlay your hard earned money is the important lesson here. Don't take things for granted, review every day and correct your mistakes and you will find more winners and less losers.
And when you are backing more winners and less losers you feel on top of the world, invincible. You are in a great mood and this shows to the people around you because you are happy. And the people around you are ahppy and enjoy your company far more.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Sunday, June 17, 2007
Beat The Storm
PASS members have certainly found a way to beat the winter storms in recent weeks in Perth. And it would be most inappropriate if we didn't give this bloke some recognition after the picket fence he has now notched up next to his name.
PASS members have been on this 4yo gelding at his past three starts at Belmont in WA and he certainly hasn't let us down.
Last Saturday Beat The Storm put up an astonishing performance to win over the 1400m at Belmont. Given a beautiful run on the fence by Willie Pike, Beat The Storm came to the home turn full of running just needed a clear opening to give what he had left, which was plenty. However, as the field straightened for the run home, Beat The Storm was hopelessly pocketed and Pike was deparately looking for an gap to push him through. The gelding was climbing all over the heels of the horses in front of him and the inevitable happened. He clipped the heels of one in front of him, went down on his nose, and all but fell to the turf and dislodged Pike. Somehow, miraculaously, Pike kept his feet in the irons, steadied Beat The Storm, saw a gap appear on the inside and surled the gelding through the gap. Not only was Beat The Storm able to regain his footing, but he dashed through the narrow opening and ran away to win the race by 1.8 lengths. Am amazing effort just to stay on his feet, let alone finish in the placings, let alone win so easily. Only a horse with exceptional ability could do what Beat The Storm did last Saturday. It was obvious more wins were in store for him.
Yesterday, Beat The Storm lined up in a Group 3 race for the first time, the time honoured Belmont Sprint. He had some very good opposition including several Group and Listed winners and he needed to be good to even be competitive. However after his outstanding win the week before, PASS members were again told Beat The Storm was a good thing. For some reason unknown to us, Willie Pike jumped off Beat The Storm to ride Is Amazing, a 1200m sprinter at best in our opinion, albeit a previous Group winner. Is Amazing led as predicted, however Beat The Storm, given a lovely ride by Patrick Carberry, ran home strongly in the straight to prove far too good and win narrowly but convincingly. He started at $4.80, and both Centre Racing and Sportingbet paid those odds on their top tote dividend. Super TAB paid best tote in Australia at $4.60, great didvidends considering the horse had won it's last three starts, and four of his previous five starts. He has now won four straight, all over 1400m at Belmont and is the most improved horse in WA.
PASS members have now been given eight winners from the last ten selections provided, and all have big smiles on their faces and very large bank balances.
A definite horse to follow after yesterday's racing is Pure Harmony who ran third in the last race at Morphettville. Every winner at Morphettville had come down the middle of the track and the fence had been off all day. However Amy Hermann in her wisdom, who had a bolting Pure Harmony underneath her at the home turn, decided for reasons unknown to us to angle the mare to the fence to make her run. Preditably, horses down the middle over ran Pure Harmony in the straight, however she finished a creditable third. Given an even racing surface and a good barrier draw, Pure Harmony will go very close to winning at her next start.
If you would like to become part of the all the winners here at PASS, then please contact us profselections@austarnet.com.au and we can organise for you to receive emails every day we provide information.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
PASS members have been on this 4yo gelding at his past three starts at Belmont in WA and he certainly hasn't let us down.
Last Saturday Beat The Storm put up an astonishing performance to win over the 1400m at Belmont. Given a beautiful run on the fence by Willie Pike, Beat The Storm came to the home turn full of running just needed a clear opening to give what he had left, which was plenty. However, as the field straightened for the run home, Beat The Storm was hopelessly pocketed and Pike was deparately looking for an gap to push him through. The gelding was climbing all over the heels of the horses in front of him and the inevitable happened. He clipped the heels of one in front of him, went down on his nose, and all but fell to the turf and dislodged Pike. Somehow, miraculaously, Pike kept his feet in the irons, steadied Beat The Storm, saw a gap appear on the inside and surled the gelding through the gap. Not only was Beat The Storm able to regain his footing, but he dashed through the narrow opening and ran away to win the race by 1.8 lengths. Am amazing effort just to stay on his feet, let alone finish in the placings, let alone win so easily. Only a horse with exceptional ability could do what Beat The Storm did last Saturday. It was obvious more wins were in store for him.
Yesterday, Beat The Storm lined up in a Group 3 race for the first time, the time honoured Belmont Sprint. He had some very good opposition including several Group and Listed winners and he needed to be good to even be competitive. However after his outstanding win the week before, PASS members were again told Beat The Storm was a good thing. For some reason unknown to us, Willie Pike jumped off Beat The Storm to ride Is Amazing, a 1200m sprinter at best in our opinion, albeit a previous Group winner. Is Amazing led as predicted, however Beat The Storm, given a lovely ride by Patrick Carberry, ran home strongly in the straight to prove far too good and win narrowly but convincingly. He started at $4.80, and both Centre Racing and Sportingbet paid those odds on their top tote dividend. Super TAB paid best tote in Australia at $4.60, great didvidends considering the horse had won it's last three starts, and four of his previous five starts. He has now won four straight, all over 1400m at Belmont and is the most improved horse in WA.
PASS members have now been given eight winners from the last ten selections provided, and all have big smiles on their faces and very large bank balances.
A definite horse to follow after yesterday's racing is Pure Harmony who ran third in the last race at Morphettville. Every winner at Morphettville had come down the middle of the track and the fence had been off all day. However Amy Hermann in her wisdom, who had a bolting Pure Harmony underneath her at the home turn, decided for reasons unknown to us to angle the mare to the fence to make her run. Preditably, horses down the middle over ran Pure Harmony in the straight, however she finished a creditable third. Given an even racing surface and a good barrier draw, Pure Harmony will go very close to winning at her next start.
If you would like to become part of the all the winners here at PASS, then please contact us profselections@austarnet.com.au and we can organise for you to receive emails every day we provide information.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Friday, June 15, 2007
A quick update on the fortunes of our service and profits being made by our members.
Following a very dry run during the early part of May when we endured a 7 bet losing streak, PASS members have now returned to the winners circle. The last 7 selections have all won, with 8 from the last 9 all saluting the judge first. This just shows that our philosophy of patience and discipline will always win out in the end, no matter how severe the losing streak may be. It is just a matter of reducing your bets and your betting amounts until fortunes sway back in your favour, which they well and truly have now. The average winning price over the last 8 winners has reduced significantly to $2.26. However this is usual for the time of year as rain affected tracks abound, as do long priced upset winners. These are diffcult to predict so here at PASS we just try to find the good things.
Overall, we have given out 146 selections since we commenced, of which 67 have won, at an average winning price of a little over $2.60. Profit at level stakes is running at 18.8%, however using a more effective staking plan these profits can be considerably improved on.
Punting during the winter months is fraught with danger as our previous article indicated. However we found another trap for punters who wanted to bet on the Sale meeting in Victoria yesterday. The track was given out in the morning as a dead (4), indicating to most that it would be an ideal racing surface. However, despite the fact that no more rain fell on the track, it was apparent following the first race the track was far worse than a dead (4). In fact the track was subsequently downgraded twice during the afternoon, without a drop of rain falling, to a slow (7). It was obvious to any track watcher that the track was slow during the first race, and punters were mislead badly. The poor punters who placed their bets early expecting a close to good track were bitterly disappointed as swoopers, and mud larks, most at long prices, saluted the judge first all day long. It is hard enough to find a winner normally, let alone during the winter months. However to endure a situation that prevailed at Sale yesterday is totally unacceptable in this day an age and punters in 2007 deserve far better.
The only way for a punter to police such occurrences is to watch the first few races of every meeting before having a bet, to justify in your own mind what the true track conditions are like. It is understandable this is not always an option for some punters, especially during the week. Hopefully this situation does not occur ever again.
There will be a few track downgrades again today as there is rain around most venues for this afternoon. Be very careful with Grafton as it is already rated a dead (5) but more rain currently falling and a track downgrade looks a certainty.
If you would like to become a member of PASS and ewnjoy all the winners provided, please contact us here at profselections@austarnet.com.au Several of our members do not have any other bets on horse racing other than the selections we provide. They feel this is the only way they can win punting on horse racing. And they are enjoying their punting far more because they are backing winners and showing an overall profit.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Following a very dry run during the early part of May when we endured a 7 bet losing streak, PASS members have now returned to the winners circle. The last 7 selections have all won, with 8 from the last 9 all saluting the judge first. This just shows that our philosophy of patience and discipline will always win out in the end, no matter how severe the losing streak may be. It is just a matter of reducing your bets and your betting amounts until fortunes sway back in your favour, which they well and truly have now. The average winning price over the last 8 winners has reduced significantly to $2.26. However this is usual for the time of year as rain affected tracks abound, as do long priced upset winners. These are diffcult to predict so here at PASS we just try to find the good things.
Overall, we have given out 146 selections since we commenced, of which 67 have won, at an average winning price of a little over $2.60. Profit at level stakes is running at 18.8%, however using a more effective staking plan these profits can be considerably improved on.
Punting during the winter months is fraught with danger as our previous article indicated. However we found another trap for punters who wanted to bet on the Sale meeting in Victoria yesterday. The track was given out in the morning as a dead (4), indicating to most that it would be an ideal racing surface. However, despite the fact that no more rain fell on the track, it was apparent following the first race the track was far worse than a dead (4). In fact the track was subsequently downgraded twice during the afternoon, without a drop of rain falling, to a slow (7). It was obvious to any track watcher that the track was slow during the first race, and punters were mislead badly. The poor punters who placed their bets early expecting a close to good track were bitterly disappointed as swoopers, and mud larks, most at long prices, saluted the judge first all day long. It is hard enough to find a winner normally, let alone during the winter months. However to endure a situation that prevailed at Sale yesterday is totally unacceptable in this day an age and punters in 2007 deserve far better.
The only way for a punter to police such occurrences is to watch the first few races of every meeting before having a bet, to justify in your own mind what the true track conditions are like. It is understandable this is not always an option for some punters, especially during the week. Hopefully this situation does not occur ever again.
There will be a few track downgrades again today as there is rain around most venues for this afternoon. Be very careful with Grafton as it is already rated a dead (5) but more rain currently falling and a track downgrade looks a certainty.
If you would like to become a member of PASS and ewnjoy all the winners provided, please contact us here at profselections@austarnet.com.au Several of our members do not have any other bets on horse racing other than the selections we provide. They feel this is the only way they can win punting on horse racing. And they are enjoying their punting far more because they are backing winners and showing an overall profit.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Monday, May 28, 2007
Negotiating Winter, Successfully
The last week of May has always been bookmarked in our minds. We usually receive our first frost of the year, and we usually put the fire on for the first time of the year. Cool, clear, crisp mornings, with cold nights tempered by the combustion heater. Fresh South Easterly winds prevailing throughout the days, and of course, little or no rain. Here at Massie Lodge we can negotiate the winter by rugging the horses, feeding extra, nightly use of the fire and simply putting on a jacket. The equine, canine and human population here are most resilient and understand by the end of May dealing with the cooler times is something we simpy have to cope with for the next 3-4 months. As the days become shorter & the nights become longer we adjust appropriately, deal with it and simply get on with the job.
However, as winter approaches, how many punters adjust their methods accordingly? Why would they need to? Horses run around race tracks every day, nothing really changes other than the venues and the names of the horses. All we need to do is find the best horse in the race, that is drawn well, with a good jockey and trainer, right. Just as we always do, and the winners will keep flowing.
Wrong !!
Winter throws up many more conundrums than most punters are aware of. And most serious & successful punters will drastically reduce the number of bets they have in the winter months to maintain profitability. If they don't, the massive form reversals will catch up to all the profits they made during the summer months and a profitable year will quickly diminish into a losing year which brings some powerful issues into play. Once a punter starts losing, it is inevitable they will try to catch up, get their money back, have more bets which will lead to even more losses. Basic punting rules will be thrown out the window in the hope of regaining that winning touch. All that eventually happens, is the punter simply loses more.
However, here at PASS, we and our followers are much too smart to fall into that old trap. We will remain, become even more disciplined throughout the winter months, and turn what is usually a losing period for most punters into a better than average profit period.
Firstly, let's discuss the issues for the punter during winter. The most obvious issue for tracks located near the coastal areas of Australia that receive plenty of rain is of course wet tracks. Some may think it is an easy task just to find the mud larks, and keep backing them, and the bank balance will overflow with riches. More seasoned punters know that is just not the case and there are plenty if pitfalls in betting on rain affected tracks.
Wet tracks come in various shapes and sizes. With the new track rating system, we class anything worse than a dead (4) as a wet track. If you would like to be more strict, feel free to call a dead (4) a rain affected track. However we find that dead (4) are usually pretty close to good, and are bettable propositions. Generally, our rule of thumb is to leave alone any track that is worse than a dead (4). Now during winter this will eliminate more than half the meetings which are run as betting propositions.
Now, why do we prefer not to bet on rain affected tracks. The answer is simple enough, which we will reply to in point form:-
* All tracks when rain affected are different to the other. A heavy track at Randwick is far different from a slow track at Rosehill. A slow track at Benalla is much different to a heavy track at Moonee Valley. And just because a horse handled the heavy at the Sunshine Coast, what data do we have to say it will handle a slow track at the Gold Coast? Very little, unless it has won on the slow at the Gold Coast in the past. All tracks, even those in close proximity to each other, are built on different bases, ie, diffeent soils, sand etc, so all will react differently when it rains. Some will absorb the moisture far better than others, a slow track at one venue, may even be far worse than a heavy at another venue. The only way the punter has to assess tracks, is by the rating given out on the day, adn these can be far from accurate. And what happens is, one horse will perform well at one venue, but not at another. This causes from reversals, and they are the most diffuclt thing to predict for the punter. Moonee Valley and Randwick Inner Track (Kensington) are both built on a Strath Ayr surface which is totally differetn again. Canberra race course during the winter uses an all weather Acton track, that some horses handle, others don't. Always remember, every rain affected track is different, and treat them as such. Some horses will handle some of them, some horses will handle none of them, a few horses will handle all of them.
* During the winter, horses are jumping from a good track, to a heavy track, back to a slow track. Some will not handle any sort of rain affected track. Others will handle up to slow, but when a track becomes a bog, they flounder. Other horses will only handle a bog, but cannot get through slow to good tracks. Every horse is different. Therefore horses will be far less predictable than when racing on consistently good surfaces.
* Tracks throw up a lot of bias when rain affected. Fast lanes quickly appear, either on the fence, down the centre of the track, or even up against the outside rail. How do punters know where these fast lanes are going to be before palcing their bets?
* Hoses can miss races due to being scratched, or even miss track work because the tracks are too wet. Punters are rarely given this sort of information. So this means some horses will not be fit enough to perform at their peak on race days. An issue that impacts even more on a rain affected track, as only fittest survive and win on heavy tracks.
* Tracks will chop up badly, and if several meetings are run on one particular track when rain affetced, this may affect the track long term. So when the track comes up good after several meetings where the track was rain affetced, because of all the divots and cuts out of it, it still races with extreme bias. An unwitting punter may just think, great, the track is good, let's have a bet, not knowing the track has not recovered from the rain and the use whilst in a rain affected condition.
So, what can the punter do to overcome all these issues? Again, we will answer in point form:-
* Don't bet on tracks rated worse than dead (4). For those that need to have a bet, there are plenty of TAB meetings in areas in Australia that don't get rain in the winter. Tracks like Rockhampton, Townsville & Mackay in Queensland, Kalgoorlie in WA usually come up good throughout the winter period. A track like Port Augusta in SA is dirt, and will usually race predictably. Look for tracks and areas that have had little or no rain, where tracks have been good on a regular basis.
* Horses for courses really comes to the fore during winter. If a horse handled the heavy over 1600m at Ballarat last start, the chances are excellent he will again handle the heavy over 1600m at Ballarat. If you have to bet on rain affected tracks, look for horses that have won at the track, in the existing conditions recently.
* Find horses that race consistenly no matter where or what kind of surface they have run on. If for example, a horse has won or placed in his last 3 starts, at different courses, over different distances, on different rated surfaces, then this horse is more likely to perform again in the future. This horse adapts well to prevailing conditions and is a bettable propostion.
* Find fit horses to bet on. Horses that have raced within the last 14-15 days, horses 2nd, 3rd or 4th up from a spell, especially if they have raced on a rain affected surface at their most recent outing. Only fit horses are able to plough through the mud to win, the horses first up who need the run will be struggling when going gets tough in the straight.
* Avoid horses who win by 3 lengths one start, then get beaten by 10 lengths the next or vice versa. How can a punter predict form revesals of this magnitude, whether the track be wet or dry. If there are several horses in one race with similar form lines to this, leave the race alone. There will be other races today or tomorrow for you to punt on.
* Avoid horses who have not placed on either heavy or slow tracks, especially if they have had more than 3 runs on rain affected tracks. Chances are, this horses simply does not handle the wet. And horses are of course creatures of habit, and will continue these habits throughout their lives.
* Avoid betting in maidens, or races with a lot of first starters. Punters have no idea who will or who won't handle wet tracks. Just because a horse is by Snippets, doesn't automatically mean he will swim. Snippets progeny only has a 16% winning strike rate on wet tracks, that means 84% of his progeny don't handle them.
* Watch early races at every meeting. Try to assess if there is track bias, and where it is. The assess if your horse is drawn in the best position to take advantage of the track bias. Leader biased tracks favour horses drawn well, whereas swooping tracks assist horses drawn wide who will get back and run on.
* Use www.racenet.com.au "Wet Track Sires" satistics. It is a great free service found on their web site. Read them, the stats will surprise you I am sure, as to who the best and worst are. For example, Octagonal's do not handle wet tracks, Langfhur's are swimmers.
If you enjoy trying to predict form reversals, then this is the time of year to open your wallets and let loose. You will get plenty of value if using this type of method, but be ready for long losing streaks as well.
However, if you are a disciplined punter, think carefully and punt warily during the winter months as there will be plenty of form reversals, plenty of unanswered questions and plenty of head shaking before the Spring. If you don't bet on rain affected tracks, your number of bets will reduce automatically, and that is the best start you can have. Don't attempt to predict form reversals, you will get them right occasionally, however you will require a few long priced winners to justify trying to predict these form reversals. Back consistent, in form horses and follow the above guidelines to give you a winning edge.
We trust this has assisted a few punters. If you would like to comment or give feedback, please contact us at profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
However, as winter approaches, how many punters adjust their methods accordingly? Why would they need to? Horses run around race tracks every day, nothing really changes other than the venues and the names of the horses. All we need to do is find the best horse in the race, that is drawn well, with a good jockey and trainer, right. Just as we always do, and the winners will keep flowing.
Wrong !!
Winter throws up many more conundrums than most punters are aware of. And most serious & successful punters will drastically reduce the number of bets they have in the winter months to maintain profitability. If they don't, the massive form reversals will catch up to all the profits they made during the summer months and a profitable year will quickly diminish into a losing year which brings some powerful issues into play. Once a punter starts losing, it is inevitable they will try to catch up, get their money back, have more bets which will lead to even more losses. Basic punting rules will be thrown out the window in the hope of regaining that winning touch. All that eventually happens, is the punter simply loses more.
However, here at PASS, we and our followers are much too smart to fall into that old trap. We will remain, become even more disciplined throughout the winter months, and turn what is usually a losing period for most punters into a better than average profit period.
Firstly, let's discuss the issues for the punter during winter. The most obvious issue for tracks located near the coastal areas of Australia that receive plenty of rain is of course wet tracks. Some may think it is an easy task just to find the mud larks, and keep backing them, and the bank balance will overflow with riches. More seasoned punters know that is just not the case and there are plenty if pitfalls in betting on rain affected tracks.
Wet tracks come in various shapes and sizes. With the new track rating system, we class anything worse than a dead (4) as a wet track. If you would like to be more strict, feel free to call a dead (4) a rain affected track. However we find that dead (4) are usually pretty close to good, and are bettable propositions. Generally, our rule of thumb is to leave alone any track that is worse than a dead (4). Now during winter this will eliminate more than half the meetings which are run as betting propositions.
Now, why do we prefer not to bet on rain affected tracks. The answer is simple enough, which we will reply to in point form:-
* All tracks when rain affected are different to the other. A heavy track at Randwick is far different from a slow track at Rosehill. A slow track at Benalla is much different to a heavy track at Moonee Valley. And just because a horse handled the heavy at the Sunshine Coast, what data do we have to say it will handle a slow track at the Gold Coast? Very little, unless it has won on the slow at the Gold Coast in the past. All tracks, even those in close proximity to each other, are built on different bases, ie, diffeent soils, sand etc, so all will react differently when it rains. Some will absorb the moisture far better than others, a slow track at one venue, may even be far worse than a heavy at another venue. The only way the punter has to assess tracks, is by the rating given out on the day, adn these can be far from accurate. And what happens is, one horse will perform well at one venue, but not at another. This causes from reversals, and they are the most diffuclt thing to predict for the punter. Moonee Valley and Randwick Inner Track (Kensington) are both built on a Strath Ayr surface which is totally differetn again. Canberra race course during the winter uses an all weather Acton track, that some horses handle, others don't. Always remember, every rain affected track is different, and treat them as such. Some horses will handle some of them, some horses will handle none of them, a few horses will handle all of them.
* During the winter, horses are jumping from a good track, to a heavy track, back to a slow track. Some will not handle any sort of rain affected track. Others will handle up to slow, but when a track becomes a bog, they flounder. Other horses will only handle a bog, but cannot get through slow to good tracks. Every horse is different. Therefore horses will be far less predictable than when racing on consistently good surfaces.
* Tracks throw up a lot of bias when rain affected. Fast lanes quickly appear, either on the fence, down the centre of the track, or even up against the outside rail. How do punters know where these fast lanes are going to be before palcing their bets?
* Hoses can miss races due to being scratched, or even miss track work because the tracks are too wet. Punters are rarely given this sort of information. So this means some horses will not be fit enough to perform at their peak on race days. An issue that impacts even more on a rain affected track, as only fittest survive and win on heavy tracks.
* Tracks will chop up badly, and if several meetings are run on one particular track when rain affetced, this may affect the track long term. So when the track comes up good after several meetings where the track was rain affetced, because of all the divots and cuts out of it, it still races with extreme bias. An unwitting punter may just think, great, the track is good, let's have a bet, not knowing the track has not recovered from the rain and the use whilst in a rain affected condition.
So, what can the punter do to overcome all these issues? Again, we will answer in point form:-
* Don't bet on tracks rated worse than dead (4). For those that need to have a bet, there are plenty of TAB meetings in areas in Australia that don't get rain in the winter. Tracks like Rockhampton, Townsville & Mackay in Queensland, Kalgoorlie in WA usually come up good throughout the winter period. A track like Port Augusta in SA is dirt, and will usually race predictably. Look for tracks and areas that have had little or no rain, where tracks have been good on a regular basis.
* Horses for courses really comes to the fore during winter. If a horse handled the heavy over 1600m at Ballarat last start, the chances are excellent he will again handle the heavy over 1600m at Ballarat. If you have to bet on rain affected tracks, look for horses that have won at the track, in the existing conditions recently.
* Find horses that race consistenly no matter where or what kind of surface they have run on. If for example, a horse has won or placed in his last 3 starts, at different courses, over different distances, on different rated surfaces, then this horse is more likely to perform again in the future. This horse adapts well to prevailing conditions and is a bettable propostion.
* Find fit horses to bet on. Horses that have raced within the last 14-15 days, horses 2nd, 3rd or 4th up from a spell, especially if they have raced on a rain affected surface at their most recent outing. Only fit horses are able to plough through the mud to win, the horses first up who need the run will be struggling when going gets tough in the straight.
* Avoid horses who win by 3 lengths one start, then get beaten by 10 lengths the next or vice versa. How can a punter predict form revesals of this magnitude, whether the track be wet or dry. If there are several horses in one race with similar form lines to this, leave the race alone. There will be other races today or tomorrow for you to punt on.
* Avoid horses who have not placed on either heavy or slow tracks, especially if they have had more than 3 runs on rain affected tracks. Chances are, this horses simply does not handle the wet. And horses are of course creatures of habit, and will continue these habits throughout their lives.
* Avoid betting in maidens, or races with a lot of first starters. Punters have no idea who will or who won't handle wet tracks. Just because a horse is by Snippets, doesn't automatically mean he will swim. Snippets progeny only has a 16% winning strike rate on wet tracks, that means 84% of his progeny don't handle them.
* Watch early races at every meeting. Try to assess if there is track bias, and where it is. The assess if your horse is drawn in the best position to take advantage of the track bias. Leader biased tracks favour horses drawn well, whereas swooping tracks assist horses drawn wide who will get back and run on.
* Use www.racenet.com.au "Wet Track Sires" satistics. It is a great free service found on their web site. Read them, the stats will surprise you I am sure, as to who the best and worst are. For example, Octagonal's do not handle wet tracks, Langfhur's are swimmers.
If you enjoy trying to predict form reversals, then this is the time of year to open your wallets and let loose. You will get plenty of value if using this type of method, but be ready for long losing streaks as well.
However, if you are a disciplined punter, think carefully and punt warily during the winter months as there will be plenty of form reversals, plenty of unanswered questions and plenty of head shaking before the Spring. If you don't bet on rain affected tracks, your number of bets will reduce automatically, and that is the best start you can have. Don't attempt to predict form reversals, you will get them right occasionally, however you will require a few long priced winners to justify trying to predict these form reversals. Back consistent, in form horses and follow the above guidelines to give you a winning edge.
We trust this has assisted a few punters. If you would like to comment or give feedback, please contact us at profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
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