Hindsight is a great medium, makes know it alls out of anyone who cares to use it. Nevertheless, hindsight can and should be used by all punters who want to be successful at their craft.
Let's take the Cox Plate run on Saturday, won by Colin Little's great middle distance horse, El Segundo. The son of Pins won "Australia's Middle Distance Championship" comfortably after being given a terrific run in transit by Luke Nolen, giving nothing else a chance in the straight. Now, before going any further, we did not bet in the race, so there is no talking from our kick happening here. We selected Haradasun in our emails to clients on Saturday, although urged caution to those wanting to bet on the race as it certainly appeared a tricky affair. The only thing that was going to beat Haradasun on Saturday was the jockey, and prophetically that is exactly what happened. Haradasun was butchered by a jockey who should have had more nouse, especially after riding 4 winners earlier in the day. Hindsight tells us our prediction was correct, the jockey lost the race for Haradasun.
El Segundo had put in an absolute shocker at his previous run in the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington, beaten over 5 lengths that day by Devil Moon and Haradasun. At his start prior to that effort, he never looked like being beaten in the Feehan Stakes at Moonee Valley, narrowly conquering Haradasun that day. We went back through both horses form very closely on Friday night, although believing El Segundo's last run was too bad to be true, and the fact that he can put in a bad one now and then, improving quickly at subsequent starts. However what did not jump out and hit us in the face were the venues of these successes and failures. At his last start last preparation, El Segundo finished 4th in the Australian Cup at Flemington beaten over 6 lengths, remember, the venue for his Turnbull Stakes failure. And go back even further to this time last year, El Segundo went within a whisker of winning the Cox Plate, after putting in a poor run in the Caulfield Stakes. El Segundo has had 3 runs at Flemington, for no wins. He has had 7 starts at Moonee Valley now, for 4 wins a second and a third, his only unplaced run came behind Lad Of The Manor & Makybe Diva in the Feehan Stakes of 2005. His third was first up over an unsuitable 1200m carrying 62.5kg. What does this tell us? El Segundo loves Moonee Valley, always has, whether it be the softer surface or the tight turning course, he thrives there. Obviously, he dislikes Flemington. So there you go, hindsight tells us El Segundo grows an extra leg at Moonee Valley, however should not be backed with countefeit money at Flemington. We should all make note of that for his future preparations.
Anyway, congratulations to Colin Little and Luke Nolen, two nice guys of racing who both deserved their victory in the Cox Plate.
As for PASS members, one winner from two selections on Saturday, with our stable horse El Presidente making up for his previous defeat by winning the last at Ascot on Saturday with ease. He is on a Railway Stakes trail and should be competitive in whatever he runs in this campaign. A Group 2 or 3 race is certainly within his grasp given reasonable barrier draws.
Biggest racing week of the year is approaching, we have our tails up here at present, so we expect plenty more winners to come over the Spring. We have received a few emails from prospective clients, however some have not placed correct contact details on these emails so we have not been able to reply. If you contact us, please include current operative email address or contact phone number so we can repsond speedily.
If you would like details please contact us here profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment