Derby Day Preview

We dearly wish we knew how the track will play prior to posting this, however we are not mind readers and cannot predict the future. Let's preface this by saying these are our thoughts before scratchings, track conditions, and any race bias is known.


Maribyrnong Plate

Always a tough affair with three first starters to worry about. Of what we have seen, Exceedingly Good is the one to beat, however we wouldn't be jumping in at the $2.10 on offer. He only beat Nato by 1.3 lengths, and he is $13 fixed odds at present, far better each way value. David Hayes has three runners, with Craig WIlliams on the filly Ballerina Girl which is a good lead as to his best hope in the race. She is around the $3.50 mark at present and would be backable at those odds or better. Hard to see any of the other raced division figuring, which leaves us with the Rick Hore-Lacey trained Commissioned, a General Nedym colt. The breed always race well fresh and Rick would not be starting the horse unless certain he was ready to win, look out for any solid market moves for him. We'll take the fave on here at the odds and at our own peril.

Carbine Club Stakes

Lee Freedman and Mick Price hold the key here. Freedman has put stable jockey Corey Brown on Teskara who was a nice winner two starts back at Geelong, that is a lead in itself. He ran a nice 3rd at Caulfield after that, however will need luck from barrier 11. Electromotive's form is outstanding. He beat Moreton Bay by over 2 lengths two starts back, and Moreton Bay has won 2 straight since in easy fashion. Then he beat a very strong field on Moe Cup day, had he drawn an alley tomorrow, he was the one to beat. We would think those two have the wood on Freedman's other runner Moment Of Truth, although he did beat the older gallopers leading all the way last start over the 1600m. Now, Mick Price's two runners will both go very close. Stable jockey Craig Newitt went to Kilmore to ride Rightfully Yours at his first start, only to be beaten by stablemate Sound Journey who has now won 3 on end in impressive fashion. He then beat a very strong field of maidens at Ballarat, and Newitt has chosen to ride him over stablemate Schilling who he rode to victory at Cranbourne over 1400m last start. Plenty of other chances in the race including Montonari and Blue Sky. We'll take the jockey's leads here and suggest Rightfully Yours and Teskara will fight out the race.

SAAB Quality (formerly the time honoured Hotham Handicap)

Last chance for this lot of one paced plodders to get into the Melbourne Cup. The Geelong Cup form should stand up here as the two who quinellad the race had the best form going in there. The Fuzz and Zavite beat the rest clearly that day, and both have form around Master O'Reilly, Dolphin Jo and Light Vision, so that will do us. The NZ'er Sculptor might run well, Pacino will run his usual honest race, while we can expect an improvement from Chollula. If the track is playing to front runners, then Zavite will be a good thing, if playing to run on horses, The Fuzz might just nail him on the line.

Wakeful Stakes

Hopefully by this time of the afternoon, we are aware of how the track is playing and where the best running will be. If run on horses are being allowed to win, then Serious Speed looks almost unbeatable. The $4.40 on offer earlier in the week looked luxurious to say the least, she is now into $3.50 and will more than likely start shorter tomorrow. However, she will get back, has 57kg to lump, first time at 2000m, a few question marks that is for sure. Nothing she beat in the 1000 Guineas will get near he tomorrow unless track bias assists them. Antarctic Miss's run in the Guineas was outstanding, she will lead tomorrow and despite the dreadful draw, will be in front with 200m to go. If the track is playing to leaders, she will win, so at the $15 currently on offer, she is a good each way bet. The only other chance in the race is Katherine Gold. She won well at Caulfield last start and given a good run from her nice draw with Michael Rodd aboard will be in the finish tomorrow. Remember, look for prevailing track bias, then bet accordingly.

Ascot Vale Stakes

Weekend Hustler has plenty against him tomorrow, and none of his obstacles are his opponents. He has not raced for 3 weeks, he steps back from 1600m to the 1200m which is a massive task for any horse and trainer, and has an outside draw. The straight races are a lottery at the best of times, so Brad Rawiller will have to have his mind made up as to which side of the track he will head for. With only 9 runners, probably all will go to the inside, as long as it is not too badly cut up come jump time. However, at $1.50, Weekend Hustler is no betting proposition despite being classes above his rivals. Incumbent will improve tomorrow and could be an each way chance, along with Scenic Blast and Shrewd Rhythm. No bet race for us.

MacKinnon Stakes

This is a good betting race as most of the Melbourne Cup hopefuls will just be having a pipe opener for Tuesday. This leaves very few winning chances, especially considering El Segundo will not run (not that he could win, see a previous blog post). Haradasun, Pillar of Hercules, Captious and Devil Moon are the only winning chances. Given the drama surrounding Pillar Of Hercules, his ownership issues and auction sale today for $1.8m, it is impossible seeing him winning, despite such a light weight. If there is on pace bias, then Devil Moon will go close, if run on bias, then swoopers could hold the key. Haradasun will sit just off Devil Moon and have the sitting shot. If he took no harm from his Cox Plate 3rd, then he is the one to beat. Captious will run a great race at big odds, and if the track is playing on an even keel, then he will give a great sight at nice odds.

VRC Derby

Most of these horses have not really turned three as yet, so plenty of questions still to be asked. Some have the right pedigree for running out a strong 2500m, others certainly do not. The favourite is Marching, by Commands, after his emphatic victory in the strong lead up race at Moonee Valley last Saturday. However, Marching is the first of the Commands to place at further than 1600m, let alone win. There is nothing in his pedigree to suggest he will run 2500m, as there are no winners past 1600. If the race is a sit and sprint, then he is in it up to his ears, if there is a lot of pace on, then he will flounder. Will there be pace? We reckon there will be with 13 runners in the Blue Ribband. The start is only 150m from the first turn so those drawn out wide will have to go forward in an attempt to get across otherwise they get trapped wide around a 1600m bend, so that alone should ensure some pace. Marching from barrier 2 will get shuffled back and he will have to be good to win. So, who will the run on horses be? Littorio, Stockade, Best Beware, Kibbutz and Villain are probably the best of these. However please remeber, take close heed as to how the track is playing before making any punting decisions. If on pace bias exists, then a sit and sprint Marching has an excellent chance of victory. If the fence is off, and the winners are coming out wide, then Littorio and Villain are probably the two.

Myer Classic

We reluctantly called this race by the correct name, as it was only introduced a couple of years ago and has little or no history. Looks a benefit for Divine Madonna unless horses cannot make ground on the day. At level weights she is a weighted certainty, barrier 12 will make no difference as she will get back to nearly last anyway. We are stunned bookies are offering black figures about her. Unfortunately we won't know her fate until after 5 or 6 races are run tomorrow. Of the rest it is a lottery. If the track is playing to on pace runners, then Cinque Cento will race on or close to the lead, and she has been running in far superior company to her opposition other than Divine Madonna.

The Salinger

Had to call this one by the sponsors name because it has a different sponsor almost every year. Back in the 60s it was called the Craven A Stakes, that is how long the VRC has been selling off traditionalism. Straight 6 race, track bias the key, inside or outside? Inside, Stanzout goes very close to winning, his form excellent, well drawn, will get a good run, winner here two starts back, plenty to like about him. However if the best going is on the outside, he has no hope. Typhoon Zed in the same boat, has a good chance if inside is favoured. Tesbury Jack is drawn the centre, giving him a good option to go either way, and his first up win was a nice effort. Of the outside brigade, Shadoways, Storm Signal have good chances.

Ellerston Capital Stakes

Now this is a good race with a couple of very good horses involved. Top weight Royal Ida is fitter now after two runs in Adelaide and is back to peak form. Barrier is a worry, however he'll get back and run home strongly if the bias favours him. Lord Of The Dance gave nothing else a chance at Caulfield last start. We jumped on one start early with him, however if he runs up to that effort he won't be getting beaten tomorrow. He will race on pace so is the one if the track is playing to front runners. The dark horse here is Count To Zero. Forget he ever went around at Caulfield, he was only beaten just under 4 lenths after geting too far back and never seeing daylight at any stage. He will improve tomorrow and has a great chance here at $14 currently on offer.



Well, those are our thoughts for tomorrow's Flemington meeting. Please tread very warily early in the day tomorrow, check all races closely, work out any bias, and use that evidence you see to assist your punting.

We have two good things at Ascot tomorrow, plus another elsehwere in the country. Please contact us here profselections@austarnet.com.au if you would like to back some winners tomorrow.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.