Sunday, July 8, 2007

It is nice when we get it right. Puts you in a great frame of mind and gives you confidence to continue on the way you are going. Of our last 18 selections we have come up with 13 winners at an average wining price of $2.62 giving all our members plenty of warm winter cheer on these cool days.

Our selections for this season now number 154 with 71 winners all up. At an average winning price of just over $2.65 this gives a profit at level stakes of 22.29%. Not too many other services can boast a winning record of this magnitude oversuch a lengthy period of time.

Our main selection yesterday was a horse named Scenic Rule who ran in the last race at the Gold Coast. He looked the winner of the race after winning over the same course and distance at his previous run and only went up one class and 0.5kg on that 4.5 length win. Most of his rivals yesterday were first up from a spell, the main danger we thought being Borsha's Warrior who we predicted would lead and be carved up by a few from outside gates. Now although this din't go perfectly to plan, Scenic Rule did get a beautiful run in behind the speed, was steered clear at the top of the straight and proved a little too strong at the finish. A horse named Costa Smerelda was sensationally backed from $8 into $4.60 on track. However Scenic Rule had had two runs back from a spell was fit and in form, whereas Costa Smerelda was having his first run after a break and was not fit enough and this showed in the final 50 metres of the race. Costa Smerelda got a stitch in that final 50 metres and Scenic Rule finished strongly being the fitter of the two to win narrowly.

This is an important factor when assessing a race. A fit strong in form horse will usually beat a horse who has more ability however is racing for the first time in a preparation. It doesn't matter how many weeks work, or how many barrier trials a horse has had to fit himself for a first up assignment, race fitness will always come out on top unless the horse in question has literally lengths on the opposition. So always be happy to risk horses first up from a spell if you like a fit and in form horse. Of course there are exceptions to this rule as for every rule. Sunline will always beat a group of WFA horses first up, because she was just better than them, as would Lonhro. However, there not many horses running around with the ability of a Lonhro or a Sunline.

There is one ritual we always perform prior to coming up with a final selection. We do our form study every afternoon or evening for the following days racing. This can take anywhere from an hour up to four hours depending on how many meetings we look at. However there is one special facet of form study that is an invaluable tool and certainly stops us from backing a lot of losers. And that is a meticulous review every morning after scratchings and track conditions. It is easy to make mistakes when you first look at a race and many things can be overlooked. So it is imperative we review every race again the next morning to proove our assessments are correct. And this review is conducted slowly and carefuly so every facet of each race is thoroughly covered.

A classic example of this occurred yesterday when on Friday night we wrote down the name of a horse in Race 7 at the Gold Coast. However on closer review yesterday morning it was revealed that this horse not only jumped 400m in distance, it also jumped 2.5kg in weight from its previous start. Not only that this horse was starting from the second outside barrier so it was an obvious no bet for us. In fact, after another review of the race we found that another horse in the race had the credentials to win. Now we are not sure how we came up with the original selection, there is a possibility we simply wrote down the name of the wrong horse, nevertheless, a concentrated review on race day morning corrected the mistake of the previous evening and not only stopped us from backing a loser, but found us a nice winner at $4.90.

Everyone makes mistakes, that is well known and mistakes are very easy to make, we are only human. However to correct these mistakes before you outlay your hard earned money is the important lesson here. Don't take things for granted, review every day and correct your mistakes and you will find more winners and less losers.

And when you are backing more winners and less losers you feel on top of the world, invincible. You are in a great mood and this shows to the people around you because you are happy. And the people around you are ahppy and enjoy your company far more.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.


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