PASS members have certainly found a way to beat the winter storms in recent weeks in Perth. And it would be most inappropriate if we didn't give this bloke some recognition after the picket fence he has now notched up next to his name.
PASS members have been on this 4yo gelding at his past three starts at Belmont in WA and he certainly hasn't let us down.
Last Saturday Beat The Storm put up an astonishing performance to win over the 1400m at Belmont. Given a beautiful run on the fence by Willie Pike, Beat The Storm came to the home turn full of running just needed a clear opening to give what he had left, which was plenty. However, as the field straightened for the run home, Beat The Storm was hopelessly pocketed and Pike was deparately looking for an gap to push him through. The gelding was climbing all over the heels of the horses in front of him and the inevitable happened. He clipped the heels of one in front of him, went down on his nose, and all but fell to the turf and dislodged Pike. Somehow, miraculaously, Pike kept his feet in the irons, steadied Beat The Storm, saw a gap appear on the inside and surled the gelding through the gap. Not only was Beat The Storm able to regain his footing, but he dashed through the narrow opening and ran away to win the race by 1.8 lengths. Am amazing effort just to stay on his feet, let alone finish in the placings, let alone win so easily. Only a horse with exceptional ability could do what Beat The Storm did last Saturday. It was obvious more wins were in store for him.
Yesterday, Beat The Storm lined up in a Group 3 race for the first time, the time honoured Belmont Sprint. He had some very good opposition including several Group and Listed winners and he needed to be good to even be competitive. However after his outstanding win the week before, PASS members were again told Beat The Storm was a good thing. For some reason unknown to us, Willie Pike jumped off Beat The Storm to ride Is Amazing, a 1200m sprinter at best in our opinion, albeit a previous Group winner. Is Amazing led as predicted, however Beat The Storm, given a lovely ride by Patrick Carberry, ran home strongly in the straight to prove far too good and win narrowly but convincingly. He started at $4.80, and both Centre Racing and Sportingbet paid those odds on their top tote dividend. Super TAB paid best tote in Australia at $4.60, great didvidends considering the horse had won it's last three starts, and four of his previous five starts. He has now won four straight, all over 1400m at Belmont and is the most improved horse in WA.
PASS members have now been given eight winners from the last ten selections provided, and all have big smiles on their faces and very large bank balances.
A definite horse to follow after yesterday's racing is Pure Harmony who ran third in the last race at Morphettville. Every winner at Morphettville had come down the middle of the track and the fence had been off all day. However Amy Hermann in her wisdom, who had a bolting Pure Harmony underneath her at the home turn, decided for reasons unknown to us to angle the mare to the fence to make her run. Preditably, horses down the middle over ran Pure Harmony in the straight, however she finished a creditable third. Given an even racing surface and a good barrier draw, Pure Harmony will go very close to winning at her next start.
If you would like to become part of the all the winners here at PASS, then please contact us profselections@austarnet.com.au and we can organise for you to receive emails every day we provide information.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Sunday, June 17, 2007
Friday, June 15, 2007
A quick update on the fortunes of our service and profits being made by our members.
Following a very dry run during the early part of May when we endured a 7 bet losing streak, PASS members have now returned to the winners circle. The last 7 selections have all won, with 8 from the last 9 all saluting the judge first. This just shows that our philosophy of patience and discipline will always win out in the end, no matter how severe the losing streak may be. It is just a matter of reducing your bets and your betting amounts until fortunes sway back in your favour, which they well and truly have now. The average winning price over the last 8 winners has reduced significantly to $2.26. However this is usual for the time of year as rain affected tracks abound, as do long priced upset winners. These are diffcult to predict so here at PASS we just try to find the good things.
Overall, we have given out 146 selections since we commenced, of which 67 have won, at an average winning price of a little over $2.60. Profit at level stakes is running at 18.8%, however using a more effective staking plan these profits can be considerably improved on.
Punting during the winter months is fraught with danger as our previous article indicated. However we found another trap for punters who wanted to bet on the Sale meeting in Victoria yesterday. The track was given out in the morning as a dead (4), indicating to most that it would be an ideal racing surface. However, despite the fact that no more rain fell on the track, it was apparent following the first race the track was far worse than a dead (4). In fact the track was subsequently downgraded twice during the afternoon, without a drop of rain falling, to a slow (7). It was obvious to any track watcher that the track was slow during the first race, and punters were mislead badly. The poor punters who placed their bets early expecting a close to good track were bitterly disappointed as swoopers, and mud larks, most at long prices, saluted the judge first all day long. It is hard enough to find a winner normally, let alone during the winter months. However to endure a situation that prevailed at Sale yesterday is totally unacceptable in this day an age and punters in 2007 deserve far better.
The only way for a punter to police such occurrences is to watch the first few races of every meeting before having a bet, to justify in your own mind what the true track conditions are like. It is understandable this is not always an option for some punters, especially during the week. Hopefully this situation does not occur ever again.
There will be a few track downgrades again today as there is rain around most venues for this afternoon. Be very careful with Grafton as it is already rated a dead (5) but more rain currently falling and a track downgrade looks a certainty.
If you would like to become a member of PASS and ewnjoy all the winners provided, please contact us here at profselections@austarnet.com.au Several of our members do not have any other bets on horse racing other than the selections we provide. They feel this is the only way they can win punting on horse racing. And they are enjoying their punting far more because they are backing winners and showing an overall profit.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Following a very dry run during the early part of May when we endured a 7 bet losing streak, PASS members have now returned to the winners circle. The last 7 selections have all won, with 8 from the last 9 all saluting the judge first. This just shows that our philosophy of patience and discipline will always win out in the end, no matter how severe the losing streak may be. It is just a matter of reducing your bets and your betting amounts until fortunes sway back in your favour, which they well and truly have now. The average winning price over the last 8 winners has reduced significantly to $2.26. However this is usual for the time of year as rain affected tracks abound, as do long priced upset winners. These are diffcult to predict so here at PASS we just try to find the good things.
Overall, we have given out 146 selections since we commenced, of which 67 have won, at an average winning price of a little over $2.60. Profit at level stakes is running at 18.8%, however using a more effective staking plan these profits can be considerably improved on.
Punting during the winter months is fraught with danger as our previous article indicated. However we found another trap for punters who wanted to bet on the Sale meeting in Victoria yesterday. The track was given out in the morning as a dead (4), indicating to most that it would be an ideal racing surface. However, despite the fact that no more rain fell on the track, it was apparent following the first race the track was far worse than a dead (4). In fact the track was subsequently downgraded twice during the afternoon, without a drop of rain falling, to a slow (7). It was obvious to any track watcher that the track was slow during the first race, and punters were mislead badly. The poor punters who placed their bets early expecting a close to good track were bitterly disappointed as swoopers, and mud larks, most at long prices, saluted the judge first all day long. It is hard enough to find a winner normally, let alone during the winter months. However to endure a situation that prevailed at Sale yesterday is totally unacceptable in this day an age and punters in 2007 deserve far better.
The only way for a punter to police such occurrences is to watch the first few races of every meeting before having a bet, to justify in your own mind what the true track conditions are like. It is understandable this is not always an option for some punters, especially during the week. Hopefully this situation does not occur ever again.
There will be a few track downgrades again today as there is rain around most venues for this afternoon. Be very careful with Grafton as it is already rated a dead (5) but more rain currently falling and a track downgrade looks a certainty.
If you would like to become a member of PASS and ewnjoy all the winners provided, please contact us here at profselections@austarnet.com.au Several of our members do not have any other bets on horse racing other than the selections we provide. They feel this is the only way they can win punting on horse racing. And they are enjoying their punting far more because they are backing winners and showing an overall profit.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Monday, May 28, 2007
Negotiating Winter, Successfully
The last week of May has always been bookmarked in our minds. We usually receive our first frost of the year, and we usually put the fire on for the first time of the year. Cool, clear, crisp mornings, with cold nights tempered by the combustion heater. Fresh South Easterly winds prevailing throughout the days, and of course, little or no rain. Here at Massie Lodge we can negotiate the winter by rugging the horses, feeding extra, nightly use of the fire and simply putting on a jacket. The equine, canine and human population here are most resilient and understand by the end of May dealing with the cooler times is something we simpy have to cope with for the next 3-4 months. As the days become shorter & the nights become longer we adjust appropriately, deal with it and simply get on with the job.
However, as winter approaches, how many punters adjust their methods accordingly? Why would they need to? Horses run around race tracks every day, nothing really changes other than the venues and the names of the horses. All we need to do is find the best horse in the race, that is drawn well, with a good jockey and trainer, right. Just as we always do, and the winners will keep flowing.
Wrong !!
Winter throws up many more conundrums than most punters are aware of. And most serious & successful punters will drastically reduce the number of bets they have in the winter months to maintain profitability. If they don't, the massive form reversals will catch up to all the profits they made during the summer months and a profitable year will quickly diminish into a losing year which brings some powerful issues into play. Once a punter starts losing, it is inevitable they will try to catch up, get their money back, have more bets which will lead to even more losses. Basic punting rules will be thrown out the window in the hope of regaining that winning touch. All that eventually happens, is the punter simply loses more.
However, here at PASS, we and our followers are much too smart to fall into that old trap. We will remain, become even more disciplined throughout the winter months, and turn what is usually a losing period for most punters into a better than average profit period.
Firstly, let's discuss the issues for the punter during winter. The most obvious issue for tracks located near the coastal areas of Australia that receive plenty of rain is of course wet tracks. Some may think it is an easy task just to find the mud larks, and keep backing them, and the bank balance will overflow with riches. More seasoned punters know that is just not the case and there are plenty if pitfalls in betting on rain affected tracks.
Wet tracks come in various shapes and sizes. With the new track rating system, we class anything worse than a dead (4) as a wet track. If you would like to be more strict, feel free to call a dead (4) a rain affected track. However we find that dead (4) are usually pretty close to good, and are bettable propositions. Generally, our rule of thumb is to leave alone any track that is worse than a dead (4). Now during winter this will eliminate more than half the meetings which are run as betting propositions.
Now, why do we prefer not to bet on rain affected tracks. The answer is simple enough, which we will reply to in point form:-
* All tracks when rain affected are different to the other. A heavy track at Randwick is far different from a slow track at Rosehill. A slow track at Benalla is much different to a heavy track at Moonee Valley. And just because a horse handled the heavy at the Sunshine Coast, what data do we have to say it will handle a slow track at the Gold Coast? Very little, unless it has won on the slow at the Gold Coast in the past. All tracks, even those in close proximity to each other, are built on different bases, ie, diffeent soils, sand etc, so all will react differently when it rains. Some will absorb the moisture far better than others, a slow track at one venue, may even be far worse than a heavy at another venue. The only way the punter has to assess tracks, is by the rating given out on the day, adn these can be far from accurate. And what happens is, one horse will perform well at one venue, but not at another. This causes from reversals, and they are the most diffuclt thing to predict for the punter. Moonee Valley and Randwick Inner Track (Kensington) are both built on a Strath Ayr surface which is totally differetn again. Canberra race course during the winter uses an all weather Acton track, that some horses handle, others don't. Always remember, every rain affected track is different, and treat them as such. Some horses will handle some of them, some horses will handle none of them, a few horses will handle all of them.
* During the winter, horses are jumping from a good track, to a heavy track, back to a slow track. Some will not handle any sort of rain affected track. Others will handle up to slow, but when a track becomes a bog, they flounder. Other horses will only handle a bog, but cannot get through slow to good tracks. Every horse is different. Therefore horses will be far less predictable than when racing on consistently good surfaces.
* Tracks throw up a lot of bias when rain affected. Fast lanes quickly appear, either on the fence, down the centre of the track, or even up against the outside rail. How do punters know where these fast lanes are going to be before palcing their bets?
* Hoses can miss races due to being scratched, or even miss track work because the tracks are too wet. Punters are rarely given this sort of information. So this means some horses will not be fit enough to perform at their peak on race days. An issue that impacts even more on a rain affected track, as only fittest survive and win on heavy tracks.
* Tracks will chop up badly, and if several meetings are run on one particular track when rain affetced, this may affect the track long term. So when the track comes up good after several meetings where the track was rain affetced, because of all the divots and cuts out of it, it still races with extreme bias. An unwitting punter may just think, great, the track is good, let's have a bet, not knowing the track has not recovered from the rain and the use whilst in a rain affected condition.
So, what can the punter do to overcome all these issues? Again, we will answer in point form:-
* Don't bet on tracks rated worse than dead (4). For those that need to have a bet, there are plenty of TAB meetings in areas in Australia that don't get rain in the winter. Tracks like Rockhampton, Townsville & Mackay in Queensland, Kalgoorlie in WA usually come up good throughout the winter period. A track like Port Augusta in SA is dirt, and will usually race predictably. Look for tracks and areas that have had little or no rain, where tracks have been good on a regular basis.
* Horses for courses really comes to the fore during winter. If a horse handled the heavy over 1600m at Ballarat last start, the chances are excellent he will again handle the heavy over 1600m at Ballarat. If you have to bet on rain affected tracks, look for horses that have won at the track, in the existing conditions recently.
* Find horses that race consistenly no matter where or what kind of surface they have run on. If for example, a horse has won or placed in his last 3 starts, at different courses, over different distances, on different rated surfaces, then this horse is more likely to perform again in the future. This horse adapts well to prevailing conditions and is a bettable propostion.
* Find fit horses to bet on. Horses that have raced within the last 14-15 days, horses 2nd, 3rd or 4th up from a spell, especially if they have raced on a rain affected surface at their most recent outing. Only fit horses are able to plough through the mud to win, the horses first up who need the run will be struggling when going gets tough in the straight.
* Avoid horses who win by 3 lengths one start, then get beaten by 10 lengths the next or vice versa. How can a punter predict form revesals of this magnitude, whether the track be wet or dry. If there are several horses in one race with similar form lines to this, leave the race alone. There will be other races today or tomorrow for you to punt on.
* Avoid horses who have not placed on either heavy or slow tracks, especially if they have had more than 3 runs on rain affected tracks. Chances are, this horses simply does not handle the wet. And horses are of course creatures of habit, and will continue these habits throughout their lives.
* Avoid betting in maidens, or races with a lot of first starters. Punters have no idea who will or who won't handle wet tracks. Just because a horse is by Snippets, doesn't automatically mean he will swim. Snippets progeny only has a 16% winning strike rate on wet tracks, that means 84% of his progeny don't handle them.
* Watch early races at every meeting. Try to assess if there is track bias, and where it is. The assess if your horse is drawn in the best position to take advantage of the track bias. Leader biased tracks favour horses drawn well, whereas swooping tracks assist horses drawn wide who will get back and run on.
* Use www.racenet.com.au "Wet Track Sires" satistics. It is a great free service found on their web site. Read them, the stats will surprise you I am sure, as to who the best and worst are. For example, Octagonal's do not handle wet tracks, Langfhur's are swimmers.
If you enjoy trying to predict form reversals, then this is the time of year to open your wallets and let loose. You will get plenty of value if using this type of method, but be ready for long losing streaks as well.
However, if you are a disciplined punter, think carefully and punt warily during the winter months as there will be plenty of form reversals, plenty of unanswered questions and plenty of head shaking before the Spring. If you don't bet on rain affected tracks, your number of bets will reduce automatically, and that is the best start you can have. Don't attempt to predict form reversals, you will get them right occasionally, however you will require a few long priced winners to justify trying to predict these form reversals. Back consistent, in form horses and follow the above guidelines to give you a winning edge.
We trust this has assisted a few punters. If you would like to comment or give feedback, please contact us at profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
However, as winter approaches, how many punters adjust their methods accordingly? Why would they need to? Horses run around race tracks every day, nothing really changes other than the venues and the names of the horses. All we need to do is find the best horse in the race, that is drawn well, with a good jockey and trainer, right. Just as we always do, and the winners will keep flowing.
Wrong !!
Winter throws up many more conundrums than most punters are aware of. And most serious & successful punters will drastically reduce the number of bets they have in the winter months to maintain profitability. If they don't, the massive form reversals will catch up to all the profits they made during the summer months and a profitable year will quickly diminish into a losing year which brings some powerful issues into play. Once a punter starts losing, it is inevitable they will try to catch up, get their money back, have more bets which will lead to even more losses. Basic punting rules will be thrown out the window in the hope of regaining that winning touch. All that eventually happens, is the punter simply loses more.
However, here at PASS, we and our followers are much too smart to fall into that old trap. We will remain, become even more disciplined throughout the winter months, and turn what is usually a losing period for most punters into a better than average profit period.
Firstly, let's discuss the issues for the punter during winter. The most obvious issue for tracks located near the coastal areas of Australia that receive plenty of rain is of course wet tracks. Some may think it is an easy task just to find the mud larks, and keep backing them, and the bank balance will overflow with riches. More seasoned punters know that is just not the case and there are plenty if pitfalls in betting on rain affected tracks.
Wet tracks come in various shapes and sizes. With the new track rating system, we class anything worse than a dead (4) as a wet track. If you would like to be more strict, feel free to call a dead (4) a rain affected track. However we find that dead (4) are usually pretty close to good, and are bettable propositions. Generally, our rule of thumb is to leave alone any track that is worse than a dead (4). Now during winter this will eliminate more than half the meetings which are run as betting propositions.
Now, why do we prefer not to bet on rain affected tracks. The answer is simple enough, which we will reply to in point form:-
* All tracks when rain affected are different to the other. A heavy track at Randwick is far different from a slow track at Rosehill. A slow track at Benalla is much different to a heavy track at Moonee Valley. And just because a horse handled the heavy at the Sunshine Coast, what data do we have to say it will handle a slow track at the Gold Coast? Very little, unless it has won on the slow at the Gold Coast in the past. All tracks, even those in close proximity to each other, are built on different bases, ie, diffeent soils, sand etc, so all will react differently when it rains. Some will absorb the moisture far better than others, a slow track at one venue, may even be far worse than a heavy at another venue. The only way the punter has to assess tracks, is by the rating given out on the day, adn these can be far from accurate. And what happens is, one horse will perform well at one venue, but not at another. This causes from reversals, and they are the most diffuclt thing to predict for the punter. Moonee Valley and Randwick Inner Track (Kensington) are both built on a Strath Ayr surface which is totally differetn again. Canberra race course during the winter uses an all weather Acton track, that some horses handle, others don't. Always remember, every rain affected track is different, and treat them as such. Some horses will handle some of them, some horses will handle none of them, a few horses will handle all of them.
* During the winter, horses are jumping from a good track, to a heavy track, back to a slow track. Some will not handle any sort of rain affected track. Others will handle up to slow, but when a track becomes a bog, they flounder. Other horses will only handle a bog, but cannot get through slow to good tracks. Every horse is different. Therefore horses will be far less predictable than when racing on consistently good surfaces.
* Tracks throw up a lot of bias when rain affected. Fast lanes quickly appear, either on the fence, down the centre of the track, or even up against the outside rail. How do punters know where these fast lanes are going to be before palcing their bets?
* Hoses can miss races due to being scratched, or even miss track work because the tracks are too wet. Punters are rarely given this sort of information. So this means some horses will not be fit enough to perform at their peak on race days. An issue that impacts even more on a rain affected track, as only fittest survive and win on heavy tracks.
* Tracks will chop up badly, and if several meetings are run on one particular track when rain affetced, this may affect the track long term. So when the track comes up good after several meetings where the track was rain affetced, because of all the divots and cuts out of it, it still races with extreme bias. An unwitting punter may just think, great, the track is good, let's have a bet, not knowing the track has not recovered from the rain and the use whilst in a rain affected condition.
So, what can the punter do to overcome all these issues? Again, we will answer in point form:-
* Don't bet on tracks rated worse than dead (4). For those that need to have a bet, there are plenty of TAB meetings in areas in Australia that don't get rain in the winter. Tracks like Rockhampton, Townsville & Mackay in Queensland, Kalgoorlie in WA usually come up good throughout the winter period. A track like Port Augusta in SA is dirt, and will usually race predictably. Look for tracks and areas that have had little or no rain, where tracks have been good on a regular basis.
* Horses for courses really comes to the fore during winter. If a horse handled the heavy over 1600m at Ballarat last start, the chances are excellent he will again handle the heavy over 1600m at Ballarat. If you have to bet on rain affected tracks, look for horses that have won at the track, in the existing conditions recently.
* Find horses that race consistenly no matter where or what kind of surface they have run on. If for example, a horse has won or placed in his last 3 starts, at different courses, over different distances, on different rated surfaces, then this horse is more likely to perform again in the future. This horse adapts well to prevailing conditions and is a bettable propostion.
* Find fit horses to bet on. Horses that have raced within the last 14-15 days, horses 2nd, 3rd or 4th up from a spell, especially if they have raced on a rain affected surface at their most recent outing. Only fit horses are able to plough through the mud to win, the horses first up who need the run will be struggling when going gets tough in the straight.
* Avoid horses who win by 3 lengths one start, then get beaten by 10 lengths the next or vice versa. How can a punter predict form revesals of this magnitude, whether the track be wet or dry. If there are several horses in one race with similar form lines to this, leave the race alone. There will be other races today or tomorrow for you to punt on.
* Avoid horses who have not placed on either heavy or slow tracks, especially if they have had more than 3 runs on rain affected tracks. Chances are, this horses simply does not handle the wet. And horses are of course creatures of habit, and will continue these habits throughout their lives.
* Avoid betting in maidens, or races with a lot of first starters. Punters have no idea who will or who won't handle wet tracks. Just because a horse is by Snippets, doesn't automatically mean he will swim. Snippets progeny only has a 16% winning strike rate on wet tracks, that means 84% of his progeny don't handle them.
* Watch early races at every meeting. Try to assess if there is track bias, and where it is. The assess if your horse is drawn in the best position to take advantage of the track bias. Leader biased tracks favour horses drawn well, whereas swooping tracks assist horses drawn wide who will get back and run on.
* Use www.racenet.com.au "Wet Track Sires" satistics. It is a great free service found on their web site. Read them, the stats will surprise you I am sure, as to who the best and worst are. For example, Octagonal's do not handle wet tracks, Langfhur's are swimmers.
If you enjoy trying to predict form reversals, then this is the time of year to open your wallets and let loose. You will get plenty of value if using this type of method, but be ready for long losing streaks as well.
However, if you are a disciplined punter, think carefully and punt warily during the winter months as there will be plenty of form reversals, plenty of unanswered questions and plenty of head shaking before the Spring. If you don't bet on rain affected tracks, your number of bets will reduce automatically, and that is the best start you can have. Don't attempt to predict form reversals, you will get them right occasionally, however you will require a few long priced winners to justify trying to predict these form reversals. Back consistent, in form horses and follow the above guidelines to give you a winning edge.
We trust this has assisted a few punters. If you would like to comment or give feedback, please contact us at profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Thursday, May 17, 2007
The Spruik Horse
I don't listen to the radio these days. I don't read newspapers. I don't pay any attention to anything an owner, trainer, or jockey says in any interview. In fact, when I do turn on a radio or a television, and there are tipsters spruiking their selections, I immediately turn it off.
Now, there are several reasons why I don't read newspapers. Suffice to say they all have vested interests, and are looking for a story to sell more newspapers. So it is extremely rare we get an unbiased picture from any newspaper. Similar to radio, most if not all have vested interests, and we the listener are never made aware of who is paying the announcer to say what. Leave me out of all that, I'd rather make my own mind up about issues than be brainwashed by biased individuals.
Exactly the same thing in regards to punting. Why do people listen to tipsters? Do they ever, any of them, advertise their winning or losing strike rates to prove or disprove their worth as a tipster? Not on your life.
Why do people listen to race horse owners? They are the most biased person to ask about anything. they pay the bills, they think their horse is a champion, whether it has won a maiden or not. And they have absolutely no idea realistically of how the horse is going.
Why do people listen to jockeys? I have no idea why, jockeys generally don't know how the horse is going, unless they ride it every day in track work. And most are unable to line up the form of their opponents. When jockeys are interviewed, most are there for self promotion, nothing else. Most can barely put 2-3 words together, let alone a sentence or 3. And most have been taught by their jockey managers all the right cliches to retort when asked a question.
Why do people listen to trainers? The trainer realistically is the only one who knows the real chances of the horse. However, there is no way he will get on television or radio and announce to the world that "so & so" is a moral today. it would crucify the price for the owners. Alternatively, he is also not going to announce to the world, "So & so" has no hope today, as it would irate the owners and he might lose their business. The only time he will say the horse has no hope, is if he is trying to get a better price for their owners.
A classic example yesterday was in the first race at Sandown. Running Riot , trained by Mick Price, had been heavily supported into $2.20 favourite. Price was interviewed on TVN before the race. He had another runner in the race as well, and Bruce Clarke asked Price to compare the two. Price's reply was there was no way Contessas Choice could possibly beat Running Riot. Well there you, mortgage the house, scrape up every bit of spare cash you have and just get on Running Riot. You would have lost the lot had you listened to Mick Price. As Contessas Choice beat Running Riot easily, although neither were good enough to win the race, as Miss Meercat saluted the judge before them all.
Now, please, I am not having a go at Mick Price. In fact, I believe he is one of the more astute trainers in Australia, and have no issue putting my hard earned on anything he trains. But please, Mick or anyone else, do not insult the public by making comments like that. Whether you believe it to be true or not. It is totally misleading. And this is one reason why I do not listen to any tipsters or interviews.
Why? Because it will affect my judgement and my decisions. The only person to listen to when making a decision on which horse to back is you. In that way, you can only blame yourself if you back a loser, and only congratulate yourself if you back a winner. And you cannot hurt or upset anyone else but yourself.
And now to the spruike horse. I can recall during my days in Sydney, listening to 2KY of a Saturday morning religiously. Now without naming names, every week, there would be a horse at the Sydney metro meeting that every man and their dog wanted to tip you. 4, 5 or 6 different tipsters, jockeys, trainers whoever all came on and spruiked the horse. Now this horse was probably a $4 chance prior to all this media attention, but when the bookies open their market, up it pops @ $1.50 !! So, then everyone thinks it is a god thing, well, it must be, it's odds on isn't it? And week after week, this so called "moral" gets rolled at long odds on. The punters do their cash, the bookies laugh, and TAB's rub their hands together because turnover on the race was up 5% on last year.
This scenario is another reason of course not to listen to tipsters on either radio or television. However the bigger issue here is that to back a horse like this one, you are taking way under the horses true odds. If the horse is a $4 chance, means he should win the race 25% of the time, however the punter is being asked to take $1.50, which indicates he should win 75% of the time. A rather large difference in odds there, don't you think?
So, now to the point of this discussion. Yesterday, at around 8:30am, we sent out emails and text messages to our clients. In this email, we indicated a horse at Sandown in R3, Guild, looked a pretty good thing. In early market it was around the $3.50, more than acceptable. IAS actually opened her up at $2.70, not quite as good, but again, acceptable odds for horse who ran a great second on a Saturday, after having to overcome a wide draw. Late morning, I flicked on TVN, and the first thing I saw was Brian Martin tipping Guild. Oh well, I thought, he goes okay, not too worried about that. I then flicked the television over to Sky, and here is Tony Brassell tipping Guild as a special!! Come on fellas, did you all get my email this morning? So I immediately turned the television back to TVN, where bugger me, here is another bloke (whose name escapes me) tipping Guild as a special !!! So, when the main bookies markets went up, I was less than surprised when it opened at $1.70 !!!
Now this then leads to another point. When I tip a horse, I back them. The last thing I want is for people to think I tip them something, then don't bother to have anything on it myself. Everything I tip, I can assure everyone, I back. However, yesterday was the closest I have come to not backing one that I tipped to my clients. There was no way Guild deserved to be odds on. Inf act, there were 3-4 other realistic chances in the race, and I really didn't want to take less than $2.50 about her.
Anyway, history tells us Guild led them up, capitulated meekly in the straight to run 3rd with an SP of $2.00. I understand Guild doesn't know what price she is, however, the other jockeys in the race do and will usually attempt to get the shortie beaten.
The moral of the story is, don't listen to anyone else, not tipsters, not trainers, not jockeys. And never, ever back the spruike horses, they will always come up well under their true odds, and not value at that. Some may win, however taking long odds on about every horse you back, will send you to bankruptcy court far quicker than a 1929 like depression could ever dream of doing.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Now, there are several reasons why I don't read newspapers. Suffice to say they all have vested interests, and are looking for a story to sell more newspapers. So it is extremely rare we get an unbiased picture from any newspaper. Similar to radio, most if not all have vested interests, and we the listener are never made aware of who is paying the announcer to say what. Leave me out of all that, I'd rather make my own mind up about issues than be brainwashed by biased individuals.
Exactly the same thing in regards to punting. Why do people listen to tipsters? Do they ever, any of them, advertise their winning or losing strike rates to prove or disprove their worth as a tipster? Not on your life.
Why do people listen to race horse owners? They are the most biased person to ask about anything. they pay the bills, they think their horse is a champion, whether it has won a maiden or not. And they have absolutely no idea realistically of how the horse is going.
Why do people listen to jockeys? I have no idea why, jockeys generally don't know how the horse is going, unless they ride it every day in track work. And most are unable to line up the form of their opponents. When jockeys are interviewed, most are there for self promotion, nothing else. Most can barely put 2-3 words together, let alone a sentence or 3. And most have been taught by their jockey managers all the right cliches to retort when asked a question.
Why do people listen to trainers? The trainer realistically is the only one who knows the real chances of the horse. However, there is no way he will get on television or radio and announce to the world that "so & so" is a moral today. it would crucify the price for the owners. Alternatively, he is also not going to announce to the world, "So & so" has no hope today, as it would irate the owners and he might lose their business. The only time he will say the horse has no hope, is if he is trying to get a better price for their owners.
A classic example yesterday was in the first race at Sandown. Running Riot , trained by Mick Price, had been heavily supported into $2.20 favourite. Price was interviewed on TVN before the race. He had another runner in the race as well, and Bruce Clarke asked Price to compare the two. Price's reply was there was no way Contessas Choice could possibly beat Running Riot. Well there you, mortgage the house, scrape up every bit of spare cash you have and just get on Running Riot. You would have lost the lot had you listened to Mick Price. As Contessas Choice beat Running Riot easily, although neither were good enough to win the race, as Miss Meercat saluted the judge before them all.
Now, please, I am not having a go at Mick Price. In fact, I believe he is one of the more astute trainers in Australia, and have no issue putting my hard earned on anything he trains. But please, Mick or anyone else, do not insult the public by making comments like that. Whether you believe it to be true or not. It is totally misleading. And this is one reason why I do not listen to any tipsters or interviews.
Why? Because it will affect my judgement and my decisions. The only person to listen to when making a decision on which horse to back is you. In that way, you can only blame yourself if you back a loser, and only congratulate yourself if you back a winner. And you cannot hurt or upset anyone else but yourself.
And now to the spruike horse. I can recall during my days in Sydney, listening to 2KY of a Saturday morning religiously. Now without naming names, every week, there would be a horse at the Sydney metro meeting that every man and their dog wanted to tip you. 4, 5 or 6 different tipsters, jockeys, trainers whoever all came on and spruiked the horse. Now this horse was probably a $4 chance prior to all this media attention, but when the bookies open their market, up it pops @ $1.50 !! So, then everyone thinks it is a god thing, well, it must be, it's odds on isn't it? And week after week, this so called "moral" gets rolled at long odds on. The punters do their cash, the bookies laugh, and TAB's rub their hands together because turnover on the race was up 5% on last year.
This scenario is another reason of course not to listen to tipsters on either radio or television. However the bigger issue here is that to back a horse like this one, you are taking way under the horses true odds. If the horse is a $4 chance, means he should win the race 25% of the time, however the punter is being asked to take $1.50, which indicates he should win 75% of the time. A rather large difference in odds there, don't you think?
So, now to the point of this discussion. Yesterday, at around 8:30am, we sent out emails and text messages to our clients. In this email, we indicated a horse at Sandown in R3, Guild, looked a pretty good thing. In early market it was around the $3.50, more than acceptable. IAS actually opened her up at $2.70, not quite as good, but again, acceptable odds for horse who ran a great second on a Saturday, after having to overcome a wide draw. Late morning, I flicked on TVN, and the first thing I saw was Brian Martin tipping Guild. Oh well, I thought, he goes okay, not too worried about that. I then flicked the television over to Sky, and here is Tony Brassell tipping Guild as a special!! Come on fellas, did you all get my email this morning? So I immediately turned the television back to TVN, where bugger me, here is another bloke (whose name escapes me) tipping Guild as a special !!! So, when the main bookies markets went up, I was less than surprised when it opened at $1.70 !!!
Now this then leads to another point. When I tip a horse, I back them. The last thing I want is for people to think I tip them something, then don't bother to have anything on it myself. Everything I tip, I can assure everyone, I back. However, yesterday was the closest I have come to not backing one that I tipped to my clients. There was no way Guild deserved to be odds on. Inf act, there were 3-4 other realistic chances in the race, and I really didn't want to take less than $2.50 about her.
Anyway, history tells us Guild led them up, capitulated meekly in the straight to run 3rd with an SP of $2.00. I understand Guild doesn't know what price she is, however, the other jockeys in the race do and will usually attempt to get the shortie beaten.
The moral of the story is, don't listen to anyone else, not tipsters, not trainers, not jockeys. And never, ever back the spruike horses, they will always come up well under their true odds, and not value at that. Some may win, however taking long odds on about every horse you back, will send you to bankruptcy court far quicker than a 1929 like depression could ever dream of doing.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Saturday, April 21, 2007
A Great Week
It has been a terrific week on the punt here at PASS.
Our last 5 major selections have provided 3 winners, and on Thursday we nominated two others for special consideration and both won. So the winners just keep coming.
Overall, our winning strike rate on our number 1 selections is over 45%, with an average winning price of $2.69. This would give punters an overall profit on investment a level stakes of over 23%.
Today we informed our members of two good things. Neither let us down and both saluted the judge first. At Morphettville in the R B Mackay Stakes, we told our members in this mornings email that Here De Angels was a good thing. Here De Angels and Corey Brown led all the way and paid top tote of $3.10. And at Sandown our members were infored of the credentials of Orange County who also won easily. The Brian Mayfield Smith camp is in sparkling form at present and his horses are very hard to beat. Orange County paid $2.10 top tote to the delight of our followers.
Yesterday at Seymour, one of our horses to follow ran around in the 1600m open handicap. Our members were told yesterday morning that this horse would not only win, but would go on to win the city, and eventually win a group race. Visit Me didn't let us down and won like the good horse he is. Jockey Michael Guthrie had problems obtaining a clear run in the early part of the straight, however he was patient and when the run came, Visit Me did the rest and gave nothing else a chance. Visit Me should be followed for the rest of this campaign, and through next spring, as he will win more races.
On Thursday, we suggested both Regal Celeb and Air Raid looked better than their rivals in their races at Wyong. Both saluted the judge first. Regal Celeb deserves special mention as he lumped 58.5kg on a 53kg limit, came from barrier 7 of 8, and still won convincingly. He is certainly another horse to follow, adn the Brisbane winter carnival now beckons him.
So plenty of winners, plenty of happy punters, plenty of full wallets, and more importantly, plenty of horses to follow that will win next time out.
If you would like to receive our daily emails, please contact us profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will show you how to become a member.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Our last 5 major selections have provided 3 winners, and on Thursday we nominated two others for special consideration and both won. So the winners just keep coming.
Overall, our winning strike rate on our number 1 selections is over 45%, with an average winning price of $2.69. This would give punters an overall profit on investment a level stakes of over 23%.
Today we informed our members of two good things. Neither let us down and both saluted the judge first. At Morphettville in the R B Mackay Stakes, we told our members in this mornings email that Here De Angels was a good thing. Here De Angels and Corey Brown led all the way and paid top tote of $3.10. And at Sandown our members were infored of the credentials of Orange County who also won easily. The Brian Mayfield Smith camp is in sparkling form at present and his horses are very hard to beat. Orange County paid $2.10 top tote to the delight of our followers.
Yesterday at Seymour, one of our horses to follow ran around in the 1600m open handicap. Our members were told yesterday morning that this horse would not only win, but would go on to win the city, and eventually win a group race. Visit Me didn't let us down and won like the good horse he is. Jockey Michael Guthrie had problems obtaining a clear run in the early part of the straight, however he was patient and when the run came, Visit Me did the rest and gave nothing else a chance. Visit Me should be followed for the rest of this campaign, and through next spring, as he will win more races.
On Thursday, we suggested both Regal Celeb and Air Raid looked better than their rivals in their races at Wyong. Both saluted the judge first. Regal Celeb deserves special mention as he lumped 58.5kg on a 53kg limit, came from barrier 7 of 8, and still won convincingly. He is certainly another horse to follow, adn the Brisbane winter carnival now beckons him.
So plenty of winners, plenty of happy punters, plenty of full wallets, and more importantly, plenty of horses to follow that will win next time out.
If you would like to receive our daily emails, please contact us profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will show you how to become a member.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
Distance Races - From The Punters Point Of view
Distance races have been a bone of contention for us for some time now, and it probably time we spelt out traumors punters have when assessing a distance race, and who has a chance of winning.
Firstly, let's ask, what we consider to be a distance race. We feel any race whose distance is beyond 1600m should be considered a distance race. Some clutch at straws and claim that races from 1800m to 2400m are middle distance races, and those race beyond 2400m are staying races. And they may well be right, however how many races in a calendar year do we see over distances beyond 2400m? Other than the Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide & Perth Cups, the Duke of Norfolk Stakes, the only other 3200m races are hurdle or steeplechases. And the 2400m races other than the Derby's, can be counted on your fingers. Fact is, race clubs just don't schedule races over 2400m + any more. So for the sake of this post, we will call them all distance races, those that are set at 1800m and further.
So, why are we selecting this demographic of races to discuss. Two reasons, firstly as mentioned above, there are not many scheduled any more, and secondly and most importantly, they regularly bring up unusualy results. And the latter is why we are focusing on distance races. Not much we can influence with race scheduling, when breeders and yearling sale agencies only want fast speedy, magnificently bred 2yos. What we want to achieve here, is to find more winners, and continue to be successful on the punt.
So why are distance races so much harder in which to predict the result ? Why are races of distances between 1200m & 1600m easier to predict a result ? Why are we asking this question ? Because, our results over time emphatically point to a lower winning strike rate when it comes to races of distances further than 1600m. This has got to the point where we are seriously considering not betting on any race, whose distance is further than 1600m. Now that is a pretty serious step to take, depsite the fact that less than 10% of all races in Australia are run over disatnces further than 1800m.
Let's look at a few issues.
Other than Victoria, where distance racing does flourish, the general field size of distance races is usually small. We'll call small, less than 10 in this instance. Distance racing flourishes in Victoria for two reasons. Victoria Racing schedule plenty of them, and it is a gradual step for most horses to progress to hurdles and steeple chasing. In other states, there are very few distance races scheduled. This means that other than in Victoria, most horses are not seasoned enough to run these trips, and very few have ever been over these trips before. Horses must be taught to settle in these races, and any horse who has not been over the journey before is likely to want to go at the speed it is used to, when running over shorter distances. In smaller fields, over a distance, the pace can get very muddling, giving leaders a decided advantage. Why, because mathematically horses can only run so fast over the final 600m, and a leader who has done no work out in front and has plenty of energy left will still be able to run that final 600m almost as fast as the backmarker who is giving the leader 3-4 lengths start. It is then impossible for the backmarker to run the leader down. So the 20/1 shot, who got the easy lead, wins the race.
Let's look at top weighted, or highly weighted horses in distance events. My old mate, now departed Brian Blackmore always used to tell me, "Never back a top weight with more than 57kg in a distance race, they rarely win". He was very close to the mark, ole Brian. We have refined his thinking just a little in this day and age of rising limit weights. Don't back a horse carrying more than 4kg over the limit weight in a distance race. Why ? Think seriously about this, and leave out WFA racing, as it is a totally different weight scale. As we have said before, fields these days are very level considering the way the breeding industry has left us with a multitude of speedy squib 2yos. So we have a field of 10 lining up for a 2400m slog fest, top weight carries 58kg, limit weight is 53kg. Now 5kg may not sound like much, especially if the toppie ran 2nd at Flemington last start, and the bottom weight ran 5th at Seymour. However, the further they go, the slower the toppie is going to run. Horses can and will overcome weight differences on class at distances of 1200m, but not over 2400m. Weight will stop them, and if other things go wrong in the run, like the horse over racing, or getting trapped wide, or as mentioned before getting too far back in a slowly run race, then the toppie is in real strife. Be very wary of top weights in distance races, everything has to go perfectly for them to win. And you will usually be taking short odds to find out if the toppie can carry the weight and win. A poor combination.
One thing we have noticed in distance racing is horses improving, and horses form degenerating as they step up in distance. Let's look firstly at horses improving. Why can horses improve in distance races? Several reasons:-
1. The horse has been running over unsuitable shorter courses, finally gets up to his right distance, the distance he has shown in the past he likes, and he will improve.
2. The horse has had one, or maybe even two races at a distance in this preparation, is now fitter and ready to run a big race. This horse needs a few runs at the distance before showing his best form and now improvement will be seen.
3. The horse can also improve simply because he is meeting a weaker field, which is often the case in distance races.
4. The horse has had 3-4 runs into a preparation, and has not performed up until now. Because of his poor form over unsuitable distances, he drops dramatically in the weights. Now up to his right distance, in at a very low weight, the horse is primed to win.
All these factors must be taken into account when assessing the form of a distance race. Far more intricate than a simple 1200m race where the form will always stand up.
Now let's look at why a horses form may degenerate in distance races:-
1. The horse has been performing consistenly in shorter races, now steps up a distance, but finds he goes up in the weights. Up 2kg, and up 200m or even 400m in distance is not an ideal combination.
2. The horse may be trying the distance for the very first time. Will he run it, or will he not. It is a real gamble, as unless he is bred to stay, and most Aussie horses are not, then chances are he won't.
3. The horse may be at the end of his preparation and running him over a distance "just to try him out" seemed like a good idea at the time to the trainer. We see this all the time, horse not performing over 1400m-1600m, so the trainer throws him into a 2000m race to test the water.
4. The horse jumps 400m or more from his last start, especially if he has never run this distance before. These horses usually fail.
We will use the Sydney Cup last Saturday as an example. The two favourites were Blutigeroo and Prince Arthur. PASS potted both in our email on Saturday morning to our clients. Both were big lays. Why? Blutigeroo was jumping from a 2400m win, his first run at 2400m, to a Group 1 3200m race. Up 800m in distance. He is by Encounter, breeding told us he would never run 3200m, and he had never been over the distance before. Prince Arthur very similar. He is by Danehill. Has Danehill ever sired 3200m winner in Australia? Not that we can recall, and he too was running over 3200m for the first time, jumping over 800m in distance, and he had never won past 2000m. Silly prices bet about both, and both failed to run a place. Who won? The horse who had won a Group 2 race over the distance of 3200m less than a month before, so he was fit and in form. And Gallic's odds were much more succulent than the two faves.
All we are saying is that distance races are very, very difficult affairs. We know that from our statistics, we struggle to win on them. Summary points:-
1. Horses that are bred to run 1200m-1400m will not win over 2400m or further, which is the case for most horses bred in Australia.
2. Horses jumping 400m or more in distance, will not win distance races, unless they have won over the distance before.
3. Horses with the top weights will struggle to win distance races, unless they are proven at the distance and with the weight. Gallic was a classic example of this.
4. Horses will improve (even dramatically) when they get to their right distance, however it may take a run or to for the to get to their peak.
5. Small field distance races can be dominated by leaders, or on speed runners, by the jockey dictating the speed.
The bottom line is, if you want to bet in distance races, you are better off looking for good value. A horse down in the weights, proven over the distance, drawn well and fit enough to run the journey.
We will definately be limiting our bets in races over distances further than 1600m in the future. In fact, we may even place a moratorium on them. It is probably the safest way to go.
If you would like to be informed of lays such as Blutigeroo & Prince Arthur, before they run, then please contact us here profselections@austarnet.com.au and you too can recieve emails with our advice every day.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Firstly, let's ask, what we consider to be a distance race. We feel any race whose distance is beyond 1600m should be considered a distance race. Some clutch at straws and claim that races from 1800m to 2400m are middle distance races, and those race beyond 2400m are staying races. And they may well be right, however how many races in a calendar year do we see over distances beyond 2400m? Other than the Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide & Perth Cups, the Duke of Norfolk Stakes, the only other 3200m races are hurdle or steeplechases. And the 2400m races other than the Derby's, can be counted on your fingers. Fact is, race clubs just don't schedule races over 2400m + any more. So for the sake of this post, we will call them all distance races, those that are set at 1800m and further.
So, why are we selecting this demographic of races to discuss. Two reasons, firstly as mentioned above, there are not many scheduled any more, and secondly and most importantly, they regularly bring up unusualy results. And the latter is why we are focusing on distance races. Not much we can influence with race scheduling, when breeders and yearling sale agencies only want fast speedy, magnificently bred 2yos. What we want to achieve here, is to find more winners, and continue to be successful on the punt.
So why are distance races so much harder in which to predict the result ? Why are races of distances between 1200m & 1600m easier to predict a result ? Why are we asking this question ? Because, our results over time emphatically point to a lower winning strike rate when it comes to races of distances further than 1600m. This has got to the point where we are seriously considering not betting on any race, whose distance is further than 1600m. Now that is a pretty serious step to take, depsite the fact that less than 10% of all races in Australia are run over disatnces further than 1800m.
Let's look at a few issues.
Other than Victoria, where distance racing does flourish, the general field size of distance races is usually small. We'll call small, less than 10 in this instance. Distance racing flourishes in Victoria for two reasons. Victoria Racing schedule plenty of them, and it is a gradual step for most horses to progress to hurdles and steeple chasing. In other states, there are very few distance races scheduled. This means that other than in Victoria, most horses are not seasoned enough to run these trips, and very few have ever been over these trips before. Horses must be taught to settle in these races, and any horse who has not been over the journey before is likely to want to go at the speed it is used to, when running over shorter distances. In smaller fields, over a distance, the pace can get very muddling, giving leaders a decided advantage. Why, because mathematically horses can only run so fast over the final 600m, and a leader who has done no work out in front and has plenty of energy left will still be able to run that final 600m almost as fast as the backmarker who is giving the leader 3-4 lengths start. It is then impossible for the backmarker to run the leader down. So the 20/1 shot, who got the easy lead, wins the race.
Let's look at top weighted, or highly weighted horses in distance events. My old mate, now departed Brian Blackmore always used to tell me, "Never back a top weight with more than 57kg in a distance race, they rarely win". He was very close to the mark, ole Brian. We have refined his thinking just a little in this day and age of rising limit weights. Don't back a horse carrying more than 4kg over the limit weight in a distance race. Why ? Think seriously about this, and leave out WFA racing, as it is a totally different weight scale. As we have said before, fields these days are very level considering the way the breeding industry has left us with a multitude of speedy squib 2yos. So we have a field of 10 lining up for a 2400m slog fest, top weight carries 58kg, limit weight is 53kg. Now 5kg may not sound like much, especially if the toppie ran 2nd at Flemington last start, and the bottom weight ran 5th at Seymour. However, the further they go, the slower the toppie is going to run. Horses can and will overcome weight differences on class at distances of 1200m, but not over 2400m. Weight will stop them, and if other things go wrong in the run, like the horse over racing, or getting trapped wide, or as mentioned before getting too far back in a slowly run race, then the toppie is in real strife. Be very wary of top weights in distance races, everything has to go perfectly for them to win. And you will usually be taking short odds to find out if the toppie can carry the weight and win. A poor combination.
One thing we have noticed in distance racing is horses improving, and horses form degenerating as they step up in distance. Let's look firstly at horses improving. Why can horses improve in distance races? Several reasons:-
1. The horse has been running over unsuitable shorter courses, finally gets up to his right distance, the distance he has shown in the past he likes, and he will improve.
2. The horse has had one, or maybe even two races at a distance in this preparation, is now fitter and ready to run a big race. This horse needs a few runs at the distance before showing his best form and now improvement will be seen.
3. The horse can also improve simply because he is meeting a weaker field, which is often the case in distance races.
4. The horse has had 3-4 runs into a preparation, and has not performed up until now. Because of his poor form over unsuitable distances, he drops dramatically in the weights. Now up to his right distance, in at a very low weight, the horse is primed to win.
All these factors must be taken into account when assessing the form of a distance race. Far more intricate than a simple 1200m race where the form will always stand up.
Now let's look at why a horses form may degenerate in distance races:-
1. The horse has been performing consistenly in shorter races, now steps up a distance, but finds he goes up in the weights. Up 2kg, and up 200m or even 400m in distance is not an ideal combination.
2. The horse may be trying the distance for the very first time. Will he run it, or will he not. It is a real gamble, as unless he is bred to stay, and most Aussie horses are not, then chances are he won't.
3. The horse may be at the end of his preparation and running him over a distance "just to try him out" seemed like a good idea at the time to the trainer. We see this all the time, horse not performing over 1400m-1600m, so the trainer throws him into a 2000m race to test the water.
4. The horse jumps 400m or more from his last start, especially if he has never run this distance before. These horses usually fail.
We will use the Sydney Cup last Saturday as an example. The two favourites were Blutigeroo and Prince Arthur. PASS potted both in our email on Saturday morning to our clients. Both were big lays. Why? Blutigeroo was jumping from a 2400m win, his first run at 2400m, to a Group 1 3200m race. Up 800m in distance. He is by Encounter, breeding told us he would never run 3200m, and he had never been over the distance before. Prince Arthur very similar. He is by Danehill. Has Danehill ever sired 3200m winner in Australia? Not that we can recall, and he too was running over 3200m for the first time, jumping over 800m in distance, and he had never won past 2000m. Silly prices bet about both, and both failed to run a place. Who won? The horse who had won a Group 2 race over the distance of 3200m less than a month before, so he was fit and in form. And Gallic's odds were much more succulent than the two faves.
All we are saying is that distance races are very, very difficult affairs. We know that from our statistics, we struggle to win on them. Summary points:-
1. Horses that are bred to run 1200m-1400m will not win over 2400m or further, which is the case for most horses bred in Australia.
2. Horses jumping 400m or more in distance, will not win distance races, unless they have won over the distance before.
3. Horses with the top weights will struggle to win distance races, unless they are proven at the distance and with the weight. Gallic was a classic example of this.
4. Horses will improve (even dramatically) when they get to their right distance, however it may take a run or to for the to get to their peak.
5. Small field distance races can be dominated by leaders, or on speed runners, by the jockey dictating the speed.
The bottom line is, if you want to bet in distance races, you are better off looking for good value. A horse down in the weights, proven over the distance, drawn well and fit enough to run the journey.
We will definately be limiting our bets in races over distances further than 1600m in the future. In fact, we may even place a moratorium on them. It is probably the safest way to go.
If you would like to be informed of lays such as Blutigeroo & Prince Arthur, before they run, then please contact us here profselections@austarnet.com.au and you too can recieve emails with our advice every day.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Sunday, April 15, 2007
The Autumn Carnival Is Over
Been a very busy weekend and was unable to update yesterday. However it is now fair to say that the carnival is over.
The punt was successful over the weekend, albeit in a minor way. Our main selection on Saturday, My Son Day at Doomben, never looked a winning possibility, however our one and only selection streeted his opposition at Musswellbrook today. Ten To Countdown won the last race and paid top tote of $2.80.
Currently our top selections here at PASS are running with a winning Strike Rate of over 45%, with an average winning price of $2.69, giving us a profit on turnover at level stakes of over 21%. This is after over 5 months of giving out top selections, and does not include winners provided with horses to follow, and exotic bets. How many other information services can boast a 21% profit rating over almost 6 months, with information being provided on a daily basis. Very few we would suggest.
The autumn carnival at Royal Randwick was unfortunately marred by rain affected tracks. Therefore it is very difficult to draw conclusive conclusions to the form of most of the races, when trying to assess the form for the future. What we will do in this post, is try to put some perspective on the Sydney Autumn carnival as a whole.
Firstly, let's look at the 2yo racing. As we noted prior to the Golden Slipper, a different horse had won every major lead up race. Well nothing changed in the 3 Group 1 2yo races to follow. A different horse won the Slipper, the Sires Produce & the Champagne on Saturday. So what does that tell us? It is the most even crop of 2yo's for years, that is what it tells us, and the form that will progress to the 3yo year will not stand up. Camerilla who started favourite in the Champagne on Saturday, was pollaxed so badly in the straight, she will never race again and has been retired to stud. Meurice who won the race, had run in all the major 2yo races since the spring, won a few, ran a place in a few, ran unplaced in a couple. He is obviously a very good horse, however what he has achieved this autumn would suggest it will be difficult for him to attain that standard again in the spring. The best 3yo's in the spring will probably have only had a couple of runs at this stage of their careers, if any at all. Our suggestion is to forget all 2yo form when assessing chances in the spring.
And what of the open class sprinters. Well, Bentley Biscuit is probably the best to come out of this group, with two outstanding wins at his two most recent starts. He is now off to England to race, and he will be very competitive there, as long as races have plenty of pace in them allowing him to settle and run on. Spark Of Life was disappointing other than his first up win, might be heading for the retirement paddock. Takeover Target has some problems, and he did run a great race on Saturday, but first up over 1400m, really Joe, that is not his go. Fast N Famous did not live up to his hype, although the wet tracks did not help him. Again, not too many to get excited about here.
The fillies and mares category is far more interesting. Divine Madonna stamped herself as the best mare in the country up to 1600m. She won the Queen Of The Turf and ran a great 3rd in the Doncaster. No reason to think she won't be competitive in the spring. Hot Danish won on Saturday like a very, very good horse and she too has plenty of spring races at her mercy. Miss Finland is obviously outstanding in this category, and if she does race in the spring, a race like the Cox Plate would not be beyond her. Only a wet track dampened her performance in the Derby, and she will improve on that given a dry track. Teusday Joy was disappointing in our eyes, and we would be happy to risk her in the spring. She will get into a Caulfield Cup with a light weight, but she needs every single thing to go her way, and if Singo persists with Danny Beasley as her jockey, then her spring is as good as over now.
The 3yo colts & geldings were very simlilar to the 2yos with a different horse winning almost every group race. Fuimicino won the Derby and he will be right up to Caulfield & Melbourne Cups in the spring, especially if tracks are rain affected. However there was again no standout with a different horse winning every leg of the triple crown, and not even the same horse winning the Packer Plate or the Tulloch Stakes. A very even lot in our opinion and there might be a few who missed the autumn who will attack the spring as virtual unknowns. Th two who quninelled the Doncaster are a different proposition. We think Mentality is outstanding, and he will win Group 1 races in the Spring. We rate Haradasun marginally behind Mentality, however he too will win group 1 races in the spring if he avoids Mentality. Mentality will get the pull in the weights now from Haradasun after his 3 group 1 wins, and we are happy to back Mentality every time he races Haradasun in the spring.
The open class WFA horses still show they are not up to previous years. We predicted a big positive form reversal from Desert War on Saturday in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He loves 2000m, loves Randwick, and loves getting his own way in front. He didnt run the 2400m of the Tancred at Rosehill, just as Blutigeroo who won the Tancred did not run the 3200m of the Sydney Cup. The form of these horses will stand up at the right ditances, on the right track. Blutigeroo is a Caulfield Cup horse in the spring, Desert War is not, but Desert War could win the Cox Plate or the Mckinnon Stakes. All these races are a long way off, and the next superstar of WFA racing could be eating grass in the paddock as we type.
So, it is upward and onward to Brisbane winter carnival which is now starting to hot up. What horse that have just come back to racing will show up in the Sunshine State? Well, certainly Reigning To Win was well underdone and poorly ridden at Randwick on Monday. Whatever he did he will improve greatly next time out and will win. Not sure what the aim for him in Brisbane, but he will pick up a few races. The Stradbroke would not be beyond him. Primus will also be set for the Stradbroke and will improve on his first up effort on the wet track. He just doesn't get 1600m, so the 1400m of the Straddie will be right down his alley. One on the way to Brisbane for the QTC Derby is the Jack Denham trained Beau Celeb, who won effortlessly at Hawkesbuty on Monday. Jack only keeps a couple of good ones in his name now, so watch out for this bloke when he gets to 1600m and further. He will win a few races in Brisbane.
Trust everyone had a successful winning carnival. Plenty of winners provided her at PASS, and even a few exotics. As the weather gets cooler, our information gets hotter, so please contact us here to receive our daily emails profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
The punt was successful over the weekend, albeit in a minor way. Our main selection on Saturday, My Son Day at Doomben, never looked a winning possibility, however our one and only selection streeted his opposition at Musswellbrook today. Ten To Countdown won the last race and paid top tote of $2.80.
Currently our top selections here at PASS are running with a winning Strike Rate of over 45%, with an average winning price of $2.69, giving us a profit on turnover at level stakes of over 21%. This is after over 5 months of giving out top selections, and does not include winners provided with horses to follow, and exotic bets. How many other information services can boast a 21% profit rating over almost 6 months, with information being provided on a daily basis. Very few we would suggest.
The autumn carnival at Royal Randwick was unfortunately marred by rain affected tracks. Therefore it is very difficult to draw conclusive conclusions to the form of most of the races, when trying to assess the form for the future. What we will do in this post, is try to put some perspective on the Sydney Autumn carnival as a whole.
Firstly, let's look at the 2yo racing. As we noted prior to the Golden Slipper, a different horse had won every major lead up race. Well nothing changed in the 3 Group 1 2yo races to follow. A different horse won the Slipper, the Sires Produce & the Champagne on Saturday. So what does that tell us? It is the most even crop of 2yo's for years, that is what it tells us, and the form that will progress to the 3yo year will not stand up. Camerilla who started favourite in the Champagne on Saturday, was pollaxed so badly in the straight, she will never race again and has been retired to stud. Meurice who won the race, had run in all the major 2yo races since the spring, won a few, ran a place in a few, ran unplaced in a couple. He is obviously a very good horse, however what he has achieved this autumn would suggest it will be difficult for him to attain that standard again in the spring. The best 3yo's in the spring will probably have only had a couple of runs at this stage of their careers, if any at all. Our suggestion is to forget all 2yo form when assessing chances in the spring.
And what of the open class sprinters. Well, Bentley Biscuit is probably the best to come out of this group, with two outstanding wins at his two most recent starts. He is now off to England to race, and he will be very competitive there, as long as races have plenty of pace in them allowing him to settle and run on. Spark Of Life was disappointing other than his first up win, might be heading for the retirement paddock. Takeover Target has some problems, and he did run a great race on Saturday, but first up over 1400m, really Joe, that is not his go. Fast N Famous did not live up to his hype, although the wet tracks did not help him. Again, not too many to get excited about here.
The fillies and mares category is far more interesting. Divine Madonna stamped herself as the best mare in the country up to 1600m. She won the Queen Of The Turf and ran a great 3rd in the Doncaster. No reason to think she won't be competitive in the spring. Hot Danish won on Saturday like a very, very good horse and she too has plenty of spring races at her mercy. Miss Finland is obviously outstanding in this category, and if she does race in the spring, a race like the Cox Plate would not be beyond her. Only a wet track dampened her performance in the Derby, and she will improve on that given a dry track. Teusday Joy was disappointing in our eyes, and we would be happy to risk her in the spring. She will get into a Caulfield Cup with a light weight, but she needs every single thing to go her way, and if Singo persists with Danny Beasley as her jockey, then her spring is as good as over now.
The 3yo colts & geldings were very simlilar to the 2yos with a different horse winning almost every group race. Fuimicino won the Derby and he will be right up to Caulfield & Melbourne Cups in the spring, especially if tracks are rain affected. However there was again no standout with a different horse winning every leg of the triple crown, and not even the same horse winning the Packer Plate or the Tulloch Stakes. A very even lot in our opinion and there might be a few who missed the autumn who will attack the spring as virtual unknowns. Th two who quninelled the Doncaster are a different proposition. We think Mentality is outstanding, and he will win Group 1 races in the Spring. We rate Haradasun marginally behind Mentality, however he too will win group 1 races in the spring if he avoids Mentality. Mentality will get the pull in the weights now from Haradasun after his 3 group 1 wins, and we are happy to back Mentality every time he races Haradasun in the spring.
The open class WFA horses still show they are not up to previous years. We predicted a big positive form reversal from Desert War on Saturday in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He loves 2000m, loves Randwick, and loves getting his own way in front. He didnt run the 2400m of the Tancred at Rosehill, just as Blutigeroo who won the Tancred did not run the 3200m of the Sydney Cup. The form of these horses will stand up at the right ditances, on the right track. Blutigeroo is a Caulfield Cup horse in the spring, Desert War is not, but Desert War could win the Cox Plate or the Mckinnon Stakes. All these races are a long way off, and the next superstar of WFA racing could be eating grass in the paddock as we type.
So, it is upward and onward to Brisbane winter carnival which is now starting to hot up. What horse that have just come back to racing will show up in the Sunshine State? Well, certainly Reigning To Win was well underdone and poorly ridden at Randwick on Monday. Whatever he did he will improve greatly next time out and will win. Not sure what the aim for him in Brisbane, but he will pick up a few races. The Stradbroke would not be beyond him. Primus will also be set for the Stradbroke and will improve on his first up effort on the wet track. He just doesn't get 1600m, so the 1400m of the Straddie will be right down his alley. One on the way to Brisbane for the QTC Derby is the Jack Denham trained Beau Celeb, who won effortlessly at Hawkesbuty on Monday. Jack only keeps a couple of good ones in his name now, so watch out for this bloke when he gets to 1600m and further. He will win a few races in Brisbane.
Trust everyone had a successful winning carnival. Plenty of winners provided her at PASS, and even a few exotics. As the weather gets cooler, our information gets hotter, so please contact us here to receive our daily emails profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
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