The Autumn Carnival Is Over

Been a very busy weekend and was unable to update yesterday. However it is now fair to say that the carnival is over.

The punt was successful over the weekend, albeit in a minor way. Our main selection on Saturday, My Son Day at Doomben, never looked a winning possibility, however our one and only selection streeted his opposition at Musswellbrook today. Ten To Countdown won the last race and paid top tote of $2.80.

Currently our top selections here at PASS are running with a winning Strike Rate of over 45%, with an average winning price of $2.69, giving us a profit on turnover at level stakes of over 21%. This is after over 5 months of giving out top selections, and does not include winners provided with horses to follow, and exotic bets. How many other information services can boast a 21% profit rating over almost 6 months, with information being provided on a daily basis. Very few we would suggest.

The autumn carnival at Royal Randwick was unfortunately marred by rain affected tracks. Therefore it is very difficult to draw conclusive conclusions to the form of most of the races, when trying to assess the form for the future. What we will do in this post, is try to put some perspective on the Sydney Autumn carnival as a whole.

Firstly, let's look at the 2yo racing. As we noted prior to the Golden Slipper, a different horse had won every major lead up race. Well nothing changed in the 3 Group 1 2yo races to follow. A different horse won the Slipper, the Sires Produce & the Champagne on Saturday. So what does that tell us? It is the most even crop of 2yo's for years, that is what it tells us, and the form that will progress to the 3yo year will not stand up. Camerilla who started favourite in the Champagne on Saturday, was pollaxed so badly in the straight, she will never race again and has been retired to stud. Meurice who won the race, had run in all the major 2yo races since the spring, won a few, ran a place in a few, ran unplaced in a couple. He is obviously a very good horse, however what he has achieved this autumn would suggest it will be difficult for him to attain that standard again in the spring. The best 3yo's in the spring will probably have only had a couple of runs at this stage of their careers, if any at all. Our suggestion is to forget all 2yo form when assessing chances in the spring.

And what of the open class sprinters. Well, Bentley Biscuit is probably the best to come out of this group, with two outstanding wins at his two most recent starts. He is now off to England to race, and he will be very competitive there, as long as races have plenty of pace in them allowing him to settle and run on. Spark Of Life was disappointing other than his first up win, might be heading for the retirement paddock. Takeover Target has some problems, and he did run a great race on Saturday, but first up over 1400m, really Joe, that is not his go. Fast N Famous did not live up to his hype, although the wet tracks did not help him. Again, not too many to get excited about here.

The fillies and mares category is far more interesting. Divine Madonna stamped herself as the best mare in the country up to 1600m. She won the Queen Of The Turf and ran a great 3rd in the Doncaster. No reason to think she won't be competitive in the spring. Hot Danish won on Saturday like a very, very good horse and she too has plenty of spring races at her mercy. Miss Finland is obviously outstanding in this category, and if she does race in the spring, a race like the Cox Plate would not be beyond her. Only a wet track dampened her performance in the Derby, and she will improve on that given a dry track. Teusday Joy was disappointing in our eyes, and we would be happy to risk her in the spring. She will get into a Caulfield Cup with a light weight, but she needs every single thing to go her way, and if Singo persists with Danny Beasley as her jockey, then her spring is as good as over now.

The 3yo colts & geldings were very simlilar to the 2yos with a different horse winning almost every group race. Fuimicino won the Derby and he will be right up to Caulfield & Melbourne Cups in the spring, especially if tracks are rain affected. However there was again no standout with a different horse winning every leg of the triple crown, and not even the same horse winning the Packer Plate or the Tulloch Stakes. A very even lot in our opinion and there might be a few who missed the autumn who will attack the spring as virtual unknowns. Th two who quninelled the Doncaster are a different proposition. We think Mentality is outstanding, and he will win Group 1 races in the Spring. We rate Haradasun marginally behind Mentality, however he too will win group 1 races in the spring if he avoids Mentality. Mentality will get the pull in the weights now from Haradasun after his 3 group 1 wins, and we are happy to back Mentality every time he races Haradasun in the spring.

The open class WFA horses still show they are not up to previous years. We predicted a big positive form reversal from Desert War on Saturday in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He loves 2000m, loves Randwick, and loves getting his own way in front. He didnt run the 2400m of the Tancred at Rosehill, just as Blutigeroo who won the Tancred did not run the 3200m of the Sydney Cup. The form of these horses will stand up at the right ditances, on the right track. Blutigeroo is a Caulfield Cup horse in the spring, Desert War is not, but Desert War could win the Cox Plate or the Mckinnon Stakes. All these races are a long way off, and the next superstar of WFA racing could be eating grass in the paddock as we type.

So, it is upward and onward to Brisbane winter carnival which is now starting to hot up. What horse that have just come back to racing will show up in the Sunshine State? Well, certainly Reigning To Win was well underdone and poorly ridden at Randwick on Monday. Whatever he did he will improve greatly next time out and will win. Not sure what the aim for him in Brisbane, but he will pick up a few races. The Stradbroke would not be beyond him. Primus will also be set for the Stradbroke and will improve on his first up effort on the wet track. He just doesn't get 1600m, so the 1400m of the Straddie will be right down his alley. One on the way to Brisbane for the QTC Derby is the Jack Denham trained Beau Celeb, who won effortlessly at Hawkesbuty on Monday. Jack only keeps a couple of good ones in his name now, so watch out for this bloke when he gets to 1600m and further. He will win a few races in Brisbane.

Trust everyone had a successful winning carnival. Plenty of winners provided her at PASS, and even a few exotics. As the weather gets cooler, our information gets hotter, so please contact us here to receive our daily emails profselections@austarnet.com.au

Good luck and profitable punting to all.