Distance races have been a bone of contention for us for some time now, and it probably time we spelt out traumors punters have when assessing a distance race, and who has a chance of winning.
Firstly, let's ask, what we consider to be a distance race. We feel any race whose distance is beyond 1600m should be considered a distance race. Some clutch at straws and claim that races from 1800m to 2400m are middle distance races, and those race beyond 2400m are staying races. And they may well be right, however how many races in a calendar year do we see over distances beyond 2400m? Other than the Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide & Perth Cups, the Duke of Norfolk Stakes, the only other 3200m races are hurdle or steeplechases. And the 2400m races other than the Derby's, can be counted on your fingers. Fact is, race clubs just don't schedule races over 2400m + any more. So for the sake of this post, we will call them all distance races, those that are set at 1800m and further.
So, why are we selecting this demographic of races to discuss. Two reasons, firstly as mentioned above, there are not many scheduled any more, and secondly and most importantly, they regularly bring up unusualy results. And the latter is why we are focusing on distance races. Not much we can influence with race scheduling, when breeders and yearling sale agencies only want fast speedy, magnificently bred 2yos. What we want to achieve here, is to find more winners, and continue to be successful on the punt.
So why are distance races so much harder in which to predict the result ? Why are races of distances between 1200m & 1600m easier to predict a result ? Why are we asking this question ? Because, our results over time emphatically point to a lower winning strike rate when it comes to races of distances further than 1600m. This has got to the point where we are seriously considering not betting on any race, whose distance is further than 1600m. Now that is a pretty serious step to take, depsite the fact that less than 10% of all races in Australia are run over disatnces further than 1800m.
Let's look at a few issues.
Other than Victoria, where distance racing does flourish, the general field size of distance races is usually small. We'll call small, less than 10 in this instance. Distance racing flourishes in Victoria for two reasons. Victoria Racing schedule plenty of them, and it is a gradual step for most horses to progress to hurdles and steeple chasing. In other states, there are very few distance races scheduled. This means that other than in Victoria, most horses are not seasoned enough to run these trips, and very few have ever been over these trips before. Horses must be taught to settle in these races, and any horse who has not been over the journey before is likely to want to go at the speed it is used to, when running over shorter distances. In smaller fields, over a distance, the pace can get very muddling, giving leaders a decided advantage. Why, because mathematically horses can only run so fast over the final 600m, and a leader who has done no work out in front and has plenty of energy left will still be able to run that final 600m almost as fast as the backmarker who is giving the leader 3-4 lengths start. It is then impossible for the backmarker to run the leader down. So the 20/1 shot, who got the easy lead, wins the race.
Let's look at top weighted, or highly weighted horses in distance events. My old mate, now departed Brian Blackmore always used to tell me, "Never back a top weight with more than 57kg in a distance race, they rarely win". He was very close to the mark, ole Brian. We have refined his thinking just a little in this day and age of rising limit weights. Don't back a horse carrying more than 4kg over the limit weight in a distance race. Why ? Think seriously about this, and leave out WFA racing, as it is a totally different weight scale. As we have said before, fields these days are very level considering the way the breeding industry has left us with a multitude of speedy squib 2yos. So we have a field of 10 lining up for a 2400m slog fest, top weight carries 58kg, limit weight is 53kg. Now 5kg may not sound like much, especially if the toppie ran 2nd at Flemington last start, and the bottom weight ran 5th at Seymour. However, the further they go, the slower the toppie is going to run. Horses can and will overcome weight differences on class at distances of 1200m, but not over 2400m. Weight will stop them, and if other things go wrong in the run, like the horse over racing, or getting trapped wide, or as mentioned before getting too far back in a slowly run race, then the toppie is in real strife. Be very wary of top weights in distance races, everything has to go perfectly for them to win. And you will usually be taking short odds to find out if the toppie can carry the weight and win. A poor combination.
One thing we have noticed in distance racing is horses improving, and horses form degenerating as they step up in distance. Let's look firstly at horses improving. Why can horses improve in distance races? Several reasons:-
1. The horse has been running over unsuitable shorter courses, finally gets up to his right distance, the distance he has shown in the past he likes, and he will improve.
2. The horse has had one, or maybe even two races at a distance in this preparation, is now fitter and ready to run a big race. This horse needs a few runs at the distance before showing his best form and now improvement will be seen.
3. The horse can also improve simply because he is meeting a weaker field, which is often the case in distance races.
4. The horse has had 3-4 runs into a preparation, and has not performed up until now. Because of his poor form over unsuitable distances, he drops dramatically in the weights. Now up to his right distance, in at a very low weight, the horse is primed to win.
All these factors must be taken into account when assessing the form of a distance race. Far more intricate than a simple 1200m race where the form will always stand up.
Now let's look at why a horses form may degenerate in distance races:-
1. The horse has been performing consistenly in shorter races, now steps up a distance, but finds he goes up in the weights. Up 2kg, and up 200m or even 400m in distance is not an ideal combination.
2. The horse may be trying the distance for the very first time. Will he run it, or will he not. It is a real gamble, as unless he is bred to stay, and most Aussie horses are not, then chances are he won't.
3. The horse may be at the end of his preparation and running him over a distance "just to try him out" seemed like a good idea at the time to the trainer. We see this all the time, horse not performing over 1400m-1600m, so the trainer throws him into a 2000m race to test the water.
4. The horse jumps 400m or more from his last start, especially if he has never run this distance before. These horses usually fail.
We will use the Sydney Cup last Saturday as an example. The two favourites were Blutigeroo and Prince Arthur. PASS potted both in our email on Saturday morning to our clients. Both were big lays. Why? Blutigeroo was jumping from a 2400m win, his first run at 2400m, to a Group 1 3200m race. Up 800m in distance. He is by Encounter, breeding told us he would never run 3200m, and he had never been over the distance before. Prince Arthur very similar. He is by Danehill. Has Danehill ever sired 3200m winner in Australia? Not that we can recall, and he too was running over 3200m for the first time, jumping over 800m in distance, and he had never won past 2000m. Silly prices bet about both, and both failed to run a place. Who won? The horse who had won a Group 2 race over the distance of 3200m less than a month before, so he was fit and in form. And Gallic's odds were much more succulent than the two faves.
All we are saying is that distance races are very, very difficult affairs. We know that from our statistics, we struggle to win on them. Summary points:-
1. Horses that are bred to run 1200m-1400m will not win over 2400m or further, which is the case for most horses bred in Australia.
2. Horses jumping 400m or more in distance, will not win distance races, unless they have won over the distance before.
3. Horses with the top weights will struggle to win distance races, unless they are proven at the distance and with the weight. Gallic was a classic example of this.
4. Horses will improve (even dramatically) when they get to their right distance, however it may take a run or to for the to get to their peak.
5. Small field distance races can be dominated by leaders, or on speed runners, by the jockey dictating the speed.
The bottom line is, if you want to bet in distance races, you are better off looking for good value. A horse down in the weights, proven over the distance, drawn well and fit enough to run the journey.
We will definately be limiting our bets in races over distances further than 1600m in the future. In fact, we may even place a moratorium on them. It is probably the safest way to go.
If you would like to be informed of lays such as Blutigeroo & Prince Arthur, before they run, then please contact us here profselections@austarnet.com.au and you too can recieve emails with our advice every day.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
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