The Spruik Horse

I don't listen to the radio these days. I don't read newspapers. I don't pay any attention to anything an owner, trainer, or jockey says in any interview. In fact, when I do turn on a radio or a television, and there are tipsters spruiking their selections, I immediately turn it off.

Now, there are several reasons why I don't read newspapers. Suffice to say they all have vested interests, and are looking for a story to sell more newspapers. So it is extremely rare we get an unbiased picture from any newspaper. Similar to radio, most if not all have vested interests, and we the listener are never made aware of who is paying the announcer to say what. Leave me out of all that, I'd rather make my own mind up about issues than be brainwashed by biased individuals.

Exactly the same thing in regards to punting. Why do people listen to tipsters? Do they ever, any of them, advertise their winning or losing strike rates to prove or disprove their worth as a tipster? Not on your life.

Why do people listen to race horse owners? They are the most biased person to ask about anything. they pay the bills, they think their horse is a champion, whether it has won a maiden or not. And they have absolutely no idea realistically of how the horse is going.

Why do people listen to jockeys? I have no idea why, jockeys generally don't know how the horse is going, unless they ride it every day in track work. And most are unable to line up the form of their opponents. When jockeys are interviewed, most are there for self promotion, nothing else. Most can barely put 2-3 words together, let alone a sentence or 3. And most have been taught by their jockey managers all the right cliches to retort when asked a question.

Why do people listen to trainers? The trainer realistically is the only one who knows the real chances of the horse. However, there is no way he will get on television or radio and announce to the world that "so & so" is a moral today. it would crucify the price for the owners. Alternatively, he is also not going to announce to the world, "So & so" has no hope today, as it would irate the owners and he might lose their business. The only time he will say the horse has no hope, is if he is trying to get a better price for their owners.

A classic example yesterday was in the first race at Sandown. Running Riot , trained by Mick Price, had been heavily supported into $2.20 favourite. Price was interviewed on TVN before the race. He had another runner in the race as well, and Bruce Clarke asked Price to compare the two. Price's reply was there was no way Contessas Choice could possibly beat Running Riot. Well there you, mortgage the house, scrape up every bit of spare cash you have and just get on Running Riot. You would have lost the lot had you listened to Mick Price. As Contessas Choice beat Running Riot easily, although neither were good enough to win the race, as Miss Meercat saluted the judge before them all.

Now, please, I am not having a go at Mick Price. In fact, I believe he is one of the more astute trainers in Australia, and have no issue putting my hard earned on anything he trains. But please, Mick or anyone else, do not insult the public by making comments like that. Whether you believe it to be true or not. It is totally misleading. And this is one reason why I do not listen to any tipsters or interviews.

Why? Because it will affect my judgement and my decisions. The only person to listen to when making a decision on which horse to back is you. In that way, you can only blame yourself if you back a loser, and only congratulate yourself if you back a winner. And you cannot hurt or upset anyone else but yourself.

And now to the spruike horse. I can recall during my days in Sydney, listening to 2KY of a Saturday morning religiously. Now without naming names, every week, there would be a horse at the Sydney metro meeting that every man and their dog wanted to tip you. 4, 5 or 6 different tipsters, jockeys, trainers whoever all came on and spruiked the horse. Now this horse was probably a $4 chance prior to all this media attention, but when the bookies open their market, up it pops @ $1.50 !! So, then everyone thinks it is a god thing, well, it must be, it's odds on isn't it? And week after week, this so called "moral" gets rolled at long odds on. The punters do their cash, the bookies laugh, and TAB's rub their hands together because turnover on the race was up 5% on last year.

This scenario is another reason of course not to listen to tipsters on either radio or television. However the bigger issue here is that to back a horse like this one, you are taking way under the horses true odds. If the horse is a $4 chance, means he should win the race 25% of the time, however the punter is being asked to take $1.50, which indicates he should win 75% of the time. A rather large difference in odds there, don't you think?

So, now to the point of this discussion. Yesterday, at around 8:30am, we sent out emails and text messages to our clients. In this email, we indicated a horse at Sandown in R3, Guild, looked a pretty good thing. In early market it was around the $3.50, more than acceptable. IAS actually opened her up at $2.70, not quite as good, but again, acceptable odds for horse who ran a great second on a Saturday, after having to overcome a wide draw. Late morning, I flicked on TVN, and the first thing I saw was Brian Martin tipping Guild. Oh well, I thought, he goes okay, not too worried about that. I then flicked the television over to Sky, and here is Tony Brassell tipping Guild as a special!! Come on fellas, did you all get my email this morning? So I immediately turned the television back to TVN, where bugger me, here is another bloke (whose name escapes me) tipping Guild as a special !!! So, when the main bookies markets went up, I was less than surprised when it opened at $1.70 !!!

Now this then leads to another point. When I tip a horse, I back them. The last thing I want is for people to think I tip them something, then don't bother to have anything on it myself. Everything I tip, I can assure everyone, I back. However, yesterday was the closest I have come to not backing one that I tipped to my clients. There was no way Guild deserved to be odds on. Inf act, there were 3-4 other realistic chances in the race, and I really didn't want to take less than $2.50 about her.

Anyway, history tells us Guild led them up, capitulated meekly in the straight to run 3rd with an SP of $2.00. I understand Guild doesn't know what price she is, however, the other jockeys in the race do and will usually attempt to get the shortie beaten.

The moral of the story is, don't listen to anyone else, not tipsters, not trainers, not jockeys. And never, ever back the spruike horses, they will always come up well under their true odds, and not value at that. Some may win, however taking long odds on about every horse you back, will send you to bankruptcy court far quicker than a 1929 like depression could ever dream of doing.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.