Derby Day Preview
At long last, the great day has arrived. After a 12 month wait, the day every hardened punters salivates about is now only one sleep away, Derby Day at Flemington race course in Melbourne. This meeting has long been regarded as the best all round meeting held in Australia every year on the first day of the Melbourne Cup carnival. It has something for every taste, a new season 2yo race, an open 1200m sprint, the two major lead ups to the big one on Tuesday next, the major lead up to the Oaks run on Thursday, plus 3 races for the 3yos including the Blue Ribband, the VRC Derby. As always, the major talking point is the track and how it will play. Currently, mid afternoon Friday, the track is a dead (4), showers are forecast, however the most critical issue is the irrigation that has been deliberately sprayed onto the racing surface to take the sting out of the ground. Following only 3mm of actual rainfall this week, a massive 30mm of irrigation has been poured onto the track, thus with the rail back in the normal position, this could mean a big bias for punters to account for before placing bets. There is an excellent chance the track will play to an on pace on fence bias, as it usually does on Derby day. Put this together with the fact that the main form lines coming into the meeting derive from Caulfield two weeks ago where virtually no horse could make ground from the rear in the straight, then punters are faced with a real conundrum. The straight races as usual should play to the outside fence, therefore wide barriers will be of little consequence, in fact, they should be an advantage.
Let's look at the main races individually, we'll leave the 2yo event to those who have a far better knowledge & prowess of them than we could ever admit to:-
Carbine Club Stakes - looks a strong race for the 3yos this year, after what has been a few disappointing years for the race. There are plenty of chances despite the smallish field with Millbank, Caymans, Dr Doutes, Trustus & Tameer all having undeniable chances. We'll stick our neck out and select a last start maiden winner jumping to a Group 3 race, a feat in winning which is rarely achieved. Nevertheless, Grand Couture signalled in winning his latest outing at Bendigo that a city win was certainly within his grasp defeating the older horses in that maiden. From the astute Lee Freedman yard who place their horses with aplomb, he is up to this race without doubt following his 4 length victory over the 1400m last time. This followed a luckless second at Ballarat on that dubiously biased track where he was one of the only horses to make ground from the rear all day. Grand Couture is a gelding with plenty of promise and will give this race a real shake tomorrow. We doubt Millbank can figure in the finish, he fell in at Moonee Valley last Saturday, Caymans & Dr Doutes the hardest to beat.
Saab Quality (formerly Hotham Handicap) - Last chance Stakes for these to qualify for the big one on Tuesday, winning gains automatic entry, the rest will struggle to make the field. We have been following Light Vision for over 12 months now with great success. He is a most consistent horse and rarely puts in a poor one. Last start in the Geelong Cup his run had to be seen to be believed. He sat 3 and 4 wide the entire trip, then had the audacity to hit the front on straightening, only to fold under pressure over the final 150m. He still ran 4th, a Herculean performance beaten just on 2 lengths by Bauer who has plenty of admirers for the Melbourne Cup. If Light Vision gets into the field, then Bauer will not beat him on Tuesday. However Light Vision has to win the Saab to get into the Cup field. This he should achieve without too much fuss. How unlucky is Newport, win the time honoured Metropolitan, yet cannot even make it into the Caulfield Cup field, let alone the Melbourne Cup. In days gone by, Metrop winners were amongst the favourites in both big events, alas, no more. Newport has a great chance tomorrow. Plenty of money for Largo Lad today, so he is also expected to run a good race, field falls away dramatically from there, and you could not imagine in your wildest dreams a Cup winner coming from the remainder.
Wakeful Stakes - The 3yo fillies final lead up to the Oaks, the winner usually coming from this event. Very tough affair, nothing jumps out and grabs you, we could have 5-6 picks and miss a placegetter. Be very wary of the Caulfield bias from two weeks ago in this event, where Estee won over 2000m. Some of her opponents got a long way back and simply could make up the ground so we could see a form reversal or two here. For the record only, Poco Gusto to improve, Estee an undeniable chance, as are Miss Scarletti & Sparks Fly.
Coolmore (formerly the Ascot Vale Stakes) - The 3yos get another chance to shine in a Group 1 here this time over the straight 1200m. If times account for anything, then Northern Meteor is a living certainty. He has broken track records at Canterbury & Royal Randwick at his last two starts, the most recent a 5 length drubbing of a Group 3 field of 3yos. If he handles the straight track, then the race is as good as over, the others are simply lining up for the minor share of the prizes. Wilander beat Lucky Secret (who has won since) at Caulfield last start, he must have a good chance, as does the unbeaten Fist Of Fury, although he has been racing inferior opposition. Hayes brings Von Costa De Hero back from the 1600m of the Guineas for this, he is no Weekend Hussler, simply cannot win. The race falls away after this, with last start Brisbane winner on a slow track Portland the best of a mediocre bunch. Northern Meteor looks a good thing, Wilander a moral quinella.
MacKinnon Stakes - As with all the WFA races this spring, this race looks down on quality & depth, nevertheless, we are here to find a winner, not complain about the mediocrity in middle distance events in Australia. There are only a handful of chances, with massive form reversals required for most to win. Barbaricus ran a magnificent third in the Caulfield Cup, sitting wide then leading and doing all the hard work in the run. Again, his run may have been flattered due to the bias that day, however if he puts in like that again tomorrow, then he will go very close to winning. Princess Coup has a great chance, this race is usually reserved for the unlucky runner of the Cox Plate, and she got too far back and was poorly ridden that day. She is in the MacKinnon up to her ears. If Lottorio runs as he did in the Turnbull here a month ago, then he will almost win the race. He simply wasn't up to the Caulfield Cup, this might be his race. The only other possible winning hope is Red Ruler, however he had something amiss in the Caulfield Cup, and it is doubtful he could recover in a fortnight from that hard run, however he is an exotic hope. Tough race, maybe take quinellas and trifectas around the main 4.
VRC Derby - Already plenty written and spoken about this race. However, take out Whobegotyou, and what do we have? A bunch of mediocre 3yos given the opportunity to win a Group 1. If there is pace on & Whobegotyou runs the 2500m okay, and there is no on pace bias, then he is simply the best thing in a Derby since Mahogany back in the early 90s. The others won't get within the width of the Yarra of him, the race is as good as over. Carnero fired up badly with the blinkers on first time last start, Rawiller replaced by Shane Dye tomorrow, he could improve dramatically, especially over the 2500m which he has been looking for all spring. He is the only danger to Whobegotyou as long as he settles all right. Pre Eminence led on the leader bias at Caulfield last start, he will lead again, hopefully setting up a good speed which will suit the formerly mentioned two. He cannot however win a Derby unless the track is again biased toward front runners.
Myer Classic - Group 1 for fillies & mares, Yukko. An absolute lottery, simply throw into a hat the 16 names, and draw them out, as good a chance as any of selecting the winner. I don't even know where to start, preferably something drawn an inside barrier that will sit just off the speed, 3rd or 4th on the fence, that one will win.
Salinger Stakes - This used to be the crack sprint of the carnival and a Group 1 race, how times have changed. All things being equal, Sunburnt Land should win. He is a model of consistency, taken on and beaten everything thrown at him thus far, has drawn the middle so he can either go inside or out depending on where jockey Chris Symons chooses, he is the one to beat. Plenty of other chances, Nuclear Medicine will run a very good race, as will Swick who always goes well down the straight at his home track. Hot Danish, Biscayne Bay and Bon Hoffa the other hopes.
Well, there you have it, a complete run down on all the main races for tomorrow. Seriously, we suggest you watch the first 2-3 races to work out if there is or isn't any track bias. Watch prevailing weather conditions, look for those drawn out in the straight races, and avoid wide barriers in the non straight races. Best of luck to everyone having a punt on Derby day. We will send out our usual email to members in the morning with the best bets of the day.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Friday, October 24, 2008
2008 WS Cox Plate
The time honoured W S Cox Plate is always remembered in Australian racing annuls as the race the best horse in the country wins. Any thoroughbred with ambitions of claiming the number 1 title simply has to have a Cox Plate victory in his resume or serious doubts are caste upon a legitimate claim to fame. All the greats have won the race, run on a saucer shaped track a short journey north east of the city of Melbourne in Victoria. Though the track is less than ideal to give every horse the best winning opportunity, somehow, greatness does ebb to the surface most years for the best horse to prove victorious.
In years gone by there have also been some outstanding clashes between similarly great race horses. These head to head clashes have been immortalised adding to the excitement of the race. Nevertheless, harsh reality has struck us all between the eyes for the 2008 version of the champion's race, with what has to be said a less than quality field lining up tomorrow afternoon. Honestly, if you had read all the names of the starters out a month ago, hailing each one a winner of the Cox Plate, how many would you have thought had the ability to be there on race day, let alone win the great race? As little as a month ago, only two entrants were even thought of as being aimed at the race, and they are the Kiwi mare Princess Coup along with the best 3yo filly in NSW Samantha Miss. Add the Lloyd Williams trained Zipping, and possibly the completely out of form Maldivian I doubt any of the others were remote outsiders to make the field. However the lack of depth simply proves the arguement that Australian middle distance & staying stocks are badly depleted in this era and steps need to be taken immediately to rectify the situation. Yes, possibly this is the best field of 12 that could have been assembled, however that does not mean the race meets the reverence and esteem of previous years. In fact, we believe the 2008 version is the weakest, certainly in the modern era, more likely the weakest of all time. A very sad indictment on such a great race.
Nevertheless, one horse will indeed become part of the legendary history of Cox Plate winners tomorrow afternoon, and seriously, not too many of the starters deserve such a high accolade. In fact, in a few years time we will look back and wonder how some of the horses even got into the field. Princess Coup, Samantha Miss both deserve their position and both also deserve to be given a great winning chance. Zipping on his best form would be a worthy Cox Plate placegetter, so striking such a weak lot this year places him in an excellent winning position. Now, unless there is a massive form reversal from one of the other runners, or the former 3 strike extreme bad luck, that is your race. We have followed Master O'Reilly's career from the early days, backing him at almost every one of his starts. He is a great favourite of ours especially after his Caulfield Cup victory last year. However, not even completely biased minds such as ours could ever contemplate the Master being a Cox plate champion, despite the weakness of this years field.
Firstly, we'll discount those who simply cannot win. Raheeb was beaten a minute in the Epsom and should not be in the field, Gallant Tess, a fine mare, however she is simply not up to a Cox Plate. It would take a form reversal of a most extreme course to believe Sirmione could possible figure in the finish. Zarita unfortunately for trainer Pat Hyland in a similar boat. Cest La Guerre struggled to get past Duoro Valley in the Caulfield Stakes and he finished distanced last week in the Caulfield Cup, impossible to consider Cest La Guerre as a winning hope. It hurts to say it, however Master O'Reilly is out of his depth in a true Cox Plate, this year may be different, however it is difficult to see him figuring in the finish. His aim for 2008 has always been the Melbourne Cup, and that is where his future lies.
Now, let's look at how the race will be run. Big Maldivian has blinkers on for the first time tomorrow in an attempt to sharpen him up. And that the blinkers will most definitely do, and if he manoeuvres himself with the aplomb to get out of the barriers unscathed and on equal terms, then he will shoot straight to the front and lead easily. Regrettably for likable trainer Mark Kavanagh, big Mal will be gone at the school near the 800m mark and will be a sitting shot for the run on horses. The Gai Waterhouse trained Epsom Handicap victor Thesio will also begin well from the outside barrier and will come across the face of the field to sit second, either outside Maldivian or in behind him depending on how quick the blinkers make Mal go. It is impossible to imagine Thesio being in the finish of a Cox Plate, however, he does have a rank outside place hope this year, as he will be on top of the speed and will fight on in the straight. The key to the race is where the main hopes position up in the run. From barrier 2 Samantha Miss has to race closer than she has in her Sydney victories, possibly 3rd or 4th on the fence with such a fast pace. Princess Coup & Zipping always get a long way back, and considering the fast pace, then that should be the case again tomorrow. They will get the opportunity to run on however as they have the ability and more quality than their opponents in the race. So long as they are not more than 6-8 lengths from the leaders coming to the 800m, then they should be able to get home over the top of most of them.
So, we've discounted the majority of the field as winning hopes, we are now left with Samantha Miss, Princess Coup, Zipping and the Mick Price trained Alimosa. Three of these are of the fairer sex, and mares don't win Cox Plates unless they are outstanding, whilst only one 3yo filly has ever won the race. So what does this mean, Zipping is a certainty? Well, if the real Zipping fronts up at Moonee Valley tomorrow, that may well be the case, however there a couple of him, and he will need to be right on his metal to salute. Everything will have to go his way, he will have to have a cosy run, with cover, get clear by the school in plenty of time to wind up, then have an unchequered passage over the final 600m to figure in the finish. Hate to say it, but it certainly looks like a females race in 2008. It is doubtful Alimosa has the class to win, despite an emphatic victory in the Toorak handicap. That form rarely stands up in a Cox Plate, although this is an unusual year.
Down to the nitty gritty. Princess Coup has taken all before her in New Zealand this year. She has beaten the best, and her form in Australia this time last year was also outstanding and right up with the best we could put together. She has the class to win, the only minor concern is how far back she will get, and whether she too can secure a clear run from the 800m. If all goes well, she will run either first or second. Her travel arrangements have been less than ideal for such a big race, and she only arrived in Australia yesterday, so that in itself has to be a query, however she has travelled here before, hopefully nothing has gone awry. Samantha Miss as stated should race closer to the pace tomorrow, she has the services of leading Group 1 jockey Glen Boss, has no weight and is definitely the horse with the most potential in the race. This time next year, we may well be saying she is the best horse in the country, however, we don't have a crystal ball to see if that will be the case.
When the business end of the race starts at the school, Maldivian will tire, giving Thesio the unenviable task of taking the lead and being left a sitting shot. As Maldivian tires out of the race Samantha Miss will ease into the race nicely with a trail behind Thesio, then Boss will shoot her to the front as the field wheels into the short straight. Princess Coup, Alimosa & Zipping will all have taken off out wide at the 800m and will have to be within 2 lengths of the filly on the turn to beat her with her light weight. They will try valiantly, but in vain. Samantha Miss will become only the second filly in history to win a Cox Plate. Why? Because she is the best horse in the field, she will get the best run from a good barrier, has the feather weight to carry and as intimated earlier, hindsight being the wonderful thing that it is, in 12 months time she will be hailed as the best horse in Australia. In any normal Cox Plate year, a 3yo filly would have no winning hope, this year she does and will.
Our selections:-
1 Samanatha Miss
2 Princess Coup
3 Zipping
4 Thesio
Best of luck to everyone having a punt on the race. Hopefully it will be a clean affair with every horse obtaining every opportunity to win.
In years gone by there have also been some outstanding clashes between similarly great race horses. These head to head clashes have been immortalised adding to the excitement of the race. Nevertheless, harsh reality has struck us all between the eyes for the 2008 version of the champion's race, with what has to be said a less than quality field lining up tomorrow afternoon. Honestly, if you had read all the names of the starters out a month ago, hailing each one a winner of the Cox Plate, how many would you have thought had the ability to be there on race day, let alone win the great race? As little as a month ago, only two entrants were even thought of as being aimed at the race, and they are the Kiwi mare Princess Coup along with the best 3yo filly in NSW Samantha Miss. Add the Lloyd Williams trained Zipping, and possibly the completely out of form Maldivian I doubt any of the others were remote outsiders to make the field. However the lack of depth simply proves the arguement that Australian middle distance & staying stocks are badly depleted in this era and steps need to be taken immediately to rectify the situation. Yes, possibly this is the best field of 12 that could have been assembled, however that does not mean the race meets the reverence and esteem of previous years. In fact, we believe the 2008 version is the weakest, certainly in the modern era, more likely the weakest of all time. A very sad indictment on such a great race.
Nevertheless, one horse will indeed become part of the legendary history of Cox Plate winners tomorrow afternoon, and seriously, not too many of the starters deserve such a high accolade. In fact, in a few years time we will look back and wonder how some of the horses even got into the field. Princess Coup, Samantha Miss both deserve their position and both also deserve to be given a great winning chance. Zipping on his best form would be a worthy Cox Plate placegetter, so striking such a weak lot this year places him in an excellent winning position. Now, unless there is a massive form reversal from one of the other runners, or the former 3 strike extreme bad luck, that is your race. We have followed Master O'Reilly's career from the early days, backing him at almost every one of his starts. He is a great favourite of ours especially after his Caulfield Cup victory last year. However, not even completely biased minds such as ours could ever contemplate the Master being a Cox plate champion, despite the weakness of this years field.
Firstly, we'll discount those who simply cannot win. Raheeb was beaten a minute in the Epsom and should not be in the field, Gallant Tess, a fine mare, however she is simply not up to a Cox Plate. It would take a form reversal of a most extreme course to believe Sirmione could possible figure in the finish. Zarita unfortunately for trainer Pat Hyland in a similar boat. Cest La Guerre struggled to get past Duoro Valley in the Caulfield Stakes and he finished distanced last week in the Caulfield Cup, impossible to consider Cest La Guerre as a winning hope. It hurts to say it, however Master O'Reilly is out of his depth in a true Cox Plate, this year may be different, however it is difficult to see him figuring in the finish. His aim for 2008 has always been the Melbourne Cup, and that is where his future lies.
Now, let's look at how the race will be run. Big Maldivian has blinkers on for the first time tomorrow in an attempt to sharpen him up. And that the blinkers will most definitely do, and if he manoeuvres himself with the aplomb to get out of the barriers unscathed and on equal terms, then he will shoot straight to the front and lead easily. Regrettably for likable trainer Mark Kavanagh, big Mal will be gone at the school near the 800m mark and will be a sitting shot for the run on horses. The Gai Waterhouse trained Epsom Handicap victor Thesio will also begin well from the outside barrier and will come across the face of the field to sit second, either outside Maldivian or in behind him depending on how quick the blinkers make Mal go. It is impossible to imagine Thesio being in the finish of a Cox Plate, however, he does have a rank outside place hope this year, as he will be on top of the speed and will fight on in the straight. The key to the race is where the main hopes position up in the run. From barrier 2 Samantha Miss has to race closer than she has in her Sydney victories, possibly 3rd or 4th on the fence with such a fast pace. Princess Coup & Zipping always get a long way back, and considering the fast pace, then that should be the case again tomorrow. They will get the opportunity to run on however as they have the ability and more quality than their opponents in the race. So long as they are not more than 6-8 lengths from the leaders coming to the 800m, then they should be able to get home over the top of most of them.
So, we've discounted the majority of the field as winning hopes, we are now left with Samantha Miss, Princess Coup, Zipping and the Mick Price trained Alimosa. Three of these are of the fairer sex, and mares don't win Cox Plates unless they are outstanding, whilst only one 3yo filly has ever won the race. So what does this mean, Zipping is a certainty? Well, if the real Zipping fronts up at Moonee Valley tomorrow, that may well be the case, however there a couple of him, and he will need to be right on his metal to salute. Everything will have to go his way, he will have to have a cosy run, with cover, get clear by the school in plenty of time to wind up, then have an unchequered passage over the final 600m to figure in the finish. Hate to say it, but it certainly looks like a females race in 2008. It is doubtful Alimosa has the class to win, despite an emphatic victory in the Toorak handicap. That form rarely stands up in a Cox Plate, although this is an unusual year.
Down to the nitty gritty. Princess Coup has taken all before her in New Zealand this year. She has beaten the best, and her form in Australia this time last year was also outstanding and right up with the best we could put together. She has the class to win, the only minor concern is how far back she will get, and whether she too can secure a clear run from the 800m. If all goes well, she will run either first or second. Her travel arrangements have been less than ideal for such a big race, and she only arrived in Australia yesterday, so that in itself has to be a query, however she has travelled here before, hopefully nothing has gone awry. Samantha Miss as stated should race closer to the pace tomorrow, she has the services of leading Group 1 jockey Glen Boss, has no weight and is definitely the horse with the most potential in the race. This time next year, we may well be saying she is the best horse in the country, however, we don't have a crystal ball to see if that will be the case.
When the business end of the race starts at the school, Maldivian will tire, giving Thesio the unenviable task of taking the lead and being left a sitting shot. As Maldivian tires out of the race Samantha Miss will ease into the race nicely with a trail behind Thesio, then Boss will shoot her to the front as the field wheels into the short straight. Princess Coup, Alimosa & Zipping will all have taken off out wide at the 800m and will have to be within 2 lengths of the filly on the turn to beat her with her light weight. They will try valiantly, but in vain. Samantha Miss will become only the second filly in history to win a Cox Plate. Why? Because she is the best horse in the field, she will get the best run from a good barrier, has the feather weight to carry and as intimated earlier, hindsight being the wonderful thing that it is, in 12 months time she will be hailed as the best horse in Australia. In any normal Cox Plate year, a 3yo filly would have no winning hope, this year she does and will.
Our selections:-
1 Samanatha Miss
2 Princess Coup
3 Zipping
4 Thesio
Best of luck to everyone having a punt on the race. Hopefully it will be a clean affair with every horse obtaining every opportunity to win.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Dominance of Overseas Horses Spring 2008
Following the victories of the Goldolphin All The Good in the Caulfield Cup on Saturday plus the Luka Cumani trained Bauer in the Geelong Cup yesterday, questions must be asked about the quality of middle distance horses being produced in Australia. However the issue probably goes even deeper than this when we look at the field for Australia's number WFA event, the Cox Plate being run this Saturday at Moonee Valley, where it must be said the field looks to be the weakest in many, many years.
Let's firstly go back 12 months to the Spring of 2007 which was held in the midst of the EI crisis, and look at who won the major races. Caulfield Cup was taken out by Master O'Reilly, who had legitimately come through his grades in Victoria and proved a superior stayer on the day. The ease of his victory, 2.3 lengths, however levelled certain questions at the strength of the field considering a month previous Master O'Reilly was running at provincial tracks in Victoria. His rank failure in his next appearance in the Melbourne Cup also cast considerable doubt about the form of the Caulfield event. The Cox Plate was taken out by the Colin Little trained El Segundo who certainly deserved the accolade of being a Cox plate champion after winning several Group 1 races throughout the 2006/07 season, and being runner up in the Plate the year before. The big one on the first Tuesday in November 2007, went to the Lloyd Williams owned Efficient, who had not won a race since the VRC Derby of 2006, outsiders filling all placings. So as far back as the spring of 2007, there were most definitely question marks over the form of the major races. Even if we go back another year or two, where we saw the great old stager Fields of Omagh win two Cox Plates, with all due respect to him, the writing was on the wall some time ago. The fact is since the halcyon days of the late 90s early 2000s, where we saw the likes of Northerly, Sunline, Elvestrom, Lonhro dominating the great races around the country, Australian horses have since been left behind by overseas invaders. This includes those from the land of the long white cloud, and the situation has really been brought to fruition during the Spring of 2008. It has now become a crisis that cannot be ignored by administrators any longer.
If we look closely at the result of the 2008 Caulfield Cup, the best runs in the race came from the winner, All The Good, runner up Nom De Jur and 4th placegetter Mad Rush, all bred and trained outside of Australia. The 3rd placegetter, Danny O'Brien trained Barbaricus, was lucky to even obtain a start in the race being first emergency and even the best optimism of O'Brien would have given his other two runners in the race Douro valley & Master O'Reilly much more chance than the 150/1 shot Barbaricus. The favourites were not cited. Weekend Hussler who is allegedly the best horse in Australia has not won beyond 1800m, and after his effort at Caulfield, must now be left to run in race up to 1600m only. Douro Valley who was runner up in the Caulfield Cup in 2007, went on to win the major lead up to both Caulfield Cup & Cox Plate in 2008 the Caulfield Stakes, was beaten further than you or I could throw a cricket ball. Master O'Reilly finished 7th last Saturday after winning the event in 2007, however he didn't even get warm in 2008.
So where will the winner of the 2008 Melbourne Cup appear from? Certainly not from any of the Australian stayers. There must be extreme doubt cast over the form of 2007 Cup winner Efficient following the failures this spring of any horse who performed well in 2007. This leaves only the overseas horses to stand up. All The Good, Mad Rush, Bauer & Nom De Jur are all in form, fit and ready to tackle the 3200m on Tuesday week. Throw in Coolmore's Septimus and it is very likely Australian horses will not a fill a placing in the first 5 of this years great race. What a tragic indictment for the Australian racing & breeding industry if this was to occur, and it most likely will.
So why has this happened, what does it mean, and where are we heading? Firstly, this has obviously occurred because Australian breeders are only interested in breeding speedy 2yo squibs to race for the extremely over funded 2yo races like the Magic Millions & Golden Slipper. You cannot blame owners, breeders & trainers for attacking the big prize money, they would be crazy not to. Race schedulers around the country are the one's to blame as rarely do we see more than one race further than 1600m on any race meeting's program. This includes provincial & country racing, in fact most country meetings don't ever see a race of a distance further than 1600m. So why should breeders breed stayers, why should owners buy them, why should trainers even bother to train them in some parts of the country. We cannot answer that question. An even sadder truth is the horses bred for speed to race early, either lose form or break down and rarely race on past their 3yo season.
The ramifications for the industry are far reaching. More horses are being bred, creating a far more even spread ability wise of thoroughbreds racing in the country. There are far too many stallions and non commercial broodmares creating a severe lack of quality throughout the breed in recent years. Where are the champions of the turf in 2008? Don't tell me Weekend Hussler who can't race well beyond a mile is a champion. We haven't seen an outstanding race horse in this country since Lonhro, Sunline or Northerly, and they were at their peaks some 6-7 years ago. And there certainly are not any Might & Powers nor has there been since his reign back in the late 90s. Where are the outstanding WFA horses, even stepping back a notch to the likes of a Filante or a Juggler or an Octagonal who were always competitive in Cox Plates. The quality is not getting any better and the racing industry as a whole needs to look very closely at this and rectify the situation because if they don't, in 10 years time Australia won't even have a runner in the Melbourne Cup. Even the great Makybe Diva was able to win a race like the Cox Plate, a race she certainly would not have won had the field been of previous years quality. She was a great horse, a great stayer, one of which it is unlikely we will ever see again.
Look at the 2008 Cox Plate field. Now, think back about a month to mid September, and say out loud how many of the starters in the race at Moonee Valley on Saturday you honestly thought would be there on the day. That is not even to say how many you thought may have been winning chances a month ago, but how many actually achieved a start. Seriously, there are only two horses in Saturday's race that we thought one month ago may have been there, Princess Coup & Samantha Miss. There are 4 or 5 who would have never made the field, never even have gone close to making the field in some years like 1996, 1997, or 2001. The 2008 version of Australia's number 1 WFA event, is the weakest we have seen in over 45 years of following horse racing. In fact, we would have to say the quality of the field this year brings the name W S Cox Plate into disrepute.
Another impact the lack of quality horses is having is on the punter. The punter is in our opinion the backbone of the racing industry in Australia, without it is doubtful whether the industry would exist at all. He is the one who fronts up day after day, week after week outlaying his hard earned in the ultimate endeavour to find that elusive winner. The task set for punters is now enormous with all these overseas horses it is becoming increasingly difficult for him to piece together form lines. Not to mention whether the overseas horse has travelled well, settled in, acclimatised, eaten well. He has no idea, after so many dismal failures over the years by the likes of Oscar Schindler & Maamool, we then see All The Good & Taufan's Melody win Caulfield Cups completely friendless in the betting markets. And who can blame the punter for shying away from them after previously bad experiences. The other impact on the punter is with the poorer quality Australian stayers lining up in the big Group1 races, this leaves another void in the lesser events over the carnival, the Group 2 middle distance race, and the time honoured Country Cups that are held at this time of the year. Seymour, Benalla, Cranbourne & Moe have all held their version already this year, along with Geelong yesterday, and it must be said their Cup fields have been of lesser quality than what punters would normally become enthused about. Cranbourne in particular generally throws up a couple of Caulfield Cup runners, not this year. And again, as we spiral down through the grades, the dearth of quality horse flesh in these lesser races then impacts on the non Group city races, as well as Class racing around the provincial and country areas. Horses are now racing well out of their grade, it is becoming increasingly difficult for horses to string together several victories, and form lines are certainly not holding up as the used to. The punters conundrum is becoming greater by the day.
So the impact of the breeding industry, along with race scheduling is certainly far reaching. What will Racing Victoria & the VRC say publicly when no Australian horses finish in the first 5 or 6 in the Melbourne Cup? They will spruik how truly an International race that we now have and we should all be very proud to be Australian and be a part of it. And we should all be very proud to be Australian, indeed, however you may leave us out of supporting the giving of our major trophy and prize money to the hit and run visitors who put little else back in to Australian racing other than for one or two days of the year. That prize money in itself, if spread throughout the industry would do far more good than thrown at those who don't need it, those only wishing to prance around in the limelight for a day or two then disappear for another 12 months all at our expense. And all in the name of being a truly international event.
Bring back the days of Might & Power leading all the way, bring back the days of Sunline demoralising a top class field, bring back the days of the fighting tiger Northerly staving off all challengers. Please bring us some stayers who are able to compete at the highest level again.
Let's firstly go back 12 months to the Spring of 2007 which was held in the midst of the EI crisis, and look at who won the major races. Caulfield Cup was taken out by Master O'Reilly, who had legitimately come through his grades in Victoria and proved a superior stayer on the day. The ease of his victory, 2.3 lengths, however levelled certain questions at the strength of the field considering a month previous Master O'Reilly was running at provincial tracks in Victoria. His rank failure in his next appearance in the Melbourne Cup also cast considerable doubt about the form of the Caulfield event. The Cox Plate was taken out by the Colin Little trained El Segundo who certainly deserved the accolade of being a Cox plate champion after winning several Group 1 races throughout the 2006/07 season, and being runner up in the Plate the year before. The big one on the first Tuesday in November 2007, went to the Lloyd Williams owned Efficient, who had not won a race since the VRC Derby of 2006, outsiders filling all placings. So as far back as the spring of 2007, there were most definitely question marks over the form of the major races. Even if we go back another year or two, where we saw the great old stager Fields of Omagh win two Cox Plates, with all due respect to him, the writing was on the wall some time ago. The fact is since the halcyon days of the late 90s early 2000s, where we saw the likes of Northerly, Sunline, Elvestrom, Lonhro dominating the great races around the country, Australian horses have since been left behind by overseas invaders. This includes those from the land of the long white cloud, and the situation has really been brought to fruition during the Spring of 2008. It has now become a crisis that cannot be ignored by administrators any longer.
If we look closely at the result of the 2008 Caulfield Cup, the best runs in the race came from the winner, All The Good, runner up Nom De Jur and 4th placegetter Mad Rush, all bred and trained outside of Australia. The 3rd placegetter, Danny O'Brien trained Barbaricus, was lucky to even obtain a start in the race being first emergency and even the best optimism of O'Brien would have given his other two runners in the race Douro valley & Master O'Reilly much more chance than the 150/1 shot Barbaricus. The favourites were not cited. Weekend Hussler who is allegedly the best horse in Australia has not won beyond 1800m, and after his effort at Caulfield, must now be left to run in race up to 1600m only. Douro Valley who was runner up in the Caulfield Cup in 2007, went on to win the major lead up to both Caulfield Cup & Cox Plate in 2008 the Caulfield Stakes, was beaten further than you or I could throw a cricket ball. Master O'Reilly finished 7th last Saturday after winning the event in 2007, however he didn't even get warm in 2008.
So where will the winner of the 2008 Melbourne Cup appear from? Certainly not from any of the Australian stayers. There must be extreme doubt cast over the form of 2007 Cup winner Efficient following the failures this spring of any horse who performed well in 2007. This leaves only the overseas horses to stand up. All The Good, Mad Rush, Bauer & Nom De Jur are all in form, fit and ready to tackle the 3200m on Tuesday week. Throw in Coolmore's Septimus and it is very likely Australian horses will not a fill a placing in the first 5 of this years great race. What a tragic indictment for the Australian racing & breeding industry if this was to occur, and it most likely will.
So why has this happened, what does it mean, and where are we heading? Firstly, this has obviously occurred because Australian breeders are only interested in breeding speedy 2yo squibs to race for the extremely over funded 2yo races like the Magic Millions & Golden Slipper. You cannot blame owners, breeders & trainers for attacking the big prize money, they would be crazy not to. Race schedulers around the country are the one's to blame as rarely do we see more than one race further than 1600m on any race meeting's program. This includes provincial & country racing, in fact most country meetings don't ever see a race of a distance further than 1600m. So why should breeders breed stayers, why should owners buy them, why should trainers even bother to train them in some parts of the country. We cannot answer that question. An even sadder truth is the horses bred for speed to race early, either lose form or break down and rarely race on past their 3yo season.
The ramifications for the industry are far reaching. More horses are being bred, creating a far more even spread ability wise of thoroughbreds racing in the country. There are far too many stallions and non commercial broodmares creating a severe lack of quality throughout the breed in recent years. Where are the champions of the turf in 2008? Don't tell me Weekend Hussler who can't race well beyond a mile is a champion. We haven't seen an outstanding race horse in this country since Lonhro, Sunline or Northerly, and they were at their peaks some 6-7 years ago. And there certainly are not any Might & Powers nor has there been since his reign back in the late 90s. Where are the outstanding WFA horses, even stepping back a notch to the likes of a Filante or a Juggler or an Octagonal who were always competitive in Cox Plates. The quality is not getting any better and the racing industry as a whole needs to look very closely at this and rectify the situation because if they don't, in 10 years time Australia won't even have a runner in the Melbourne Cup. Even the great Makybe Diva was able to win a race like the Cox Plate, a race she certainly would not have won had the field been of previous years quality. She was a great horse, a great stayer, one of which it is unlikely we will ever see again.
Look at the 2008 Cox Plate field. Now, think back about a month to mid September, and say out loud how many of the starters in the race at Moonee Valley on Saturday you honestly thought would be there on the day. That is not even to say how many you thought may have been winning chances a month ago, but how many actually achieved a start. Seriously, there are only two horses in Saturday's race that we thought one month ago may have been there, Princess Coup & Samantha Miss. There are 4 or 5 who would have never made the field, never even have gone close to making the field in some years like 1996, 1997, or 2001. The 2008 version of Australia's number 1 WFA event, is the weakest we have seen in over 45 years of following horse racing. In fact, we would have to say the quality of the field this year brings the name W S Cox Plate into disrepute.
Another impact the lack of quality horses is having is on the punter. The punter is in our opinion the backbone of the racing industry in Australia, without it is doubtful whether the industry would exist at all. He is the one who fronts up day after day, week after week outlaying his hard earned in the ultimate endeavour to find that elusive winner. The task set for punters is now enormous with all these overseas horses it is becoming increasingly difficult for him to piece together form lines. Not to mention whether the overseas horse has travelled well, settled in, acclimatised, eaten well. He has no idea, after so many dismal failures over the years by the likes of Oscar Schindler & Maamool, we then see All The Good & Taufan's Melody win Caulfield Cups completely friendless in the betting markets. And who can blame the punter for shying away from them after previously bad experiences. The other impact on the punter is with the poorer quality Australian stayers lining up in the big Group1 races, this leaves another void in the lesser events over the carnival, the Group 2 middle distance race, and the time honoured Country Cups that are held at this time of the year. Seymour, Benalla, Cranbourne & Moe have all held their version already this year, along with Geelong yesterday, and it must be said their Cup fields have been of lesser quality than what punters would normally become enthused about. Cranbourne in particular generally throws up a couple of Caulfield Cup runners, not this year. And again, as we spiral down through the grades, the dearth of quality horse flesh in these lesser races then impacts on the non Group city races, as well as Class racing around the provincial and country areas. Horses are now racing well out of their grade, it is becoming increasingly difficult for horses to string together several victories, and form lines are certainly not holding up as the used to. The punters conundrum is becoming greater by the day.
So the impact of the breeding industry, along with race scheduling is certainly far reaching. What will Racing Victoria & the VRC say publicly when no Australian horses finish in the first 5 or 6 in the Melbourne Cup? They will spruik how truly an International race that we now have and we should all be very proud to be Australian and be a part of it. And we should all be very proud to be Australian, indeed, however you may leave us out of supporting the giving of our major trophy and prize money to the hit and run visitors who put little else back in to Australian racing other than for one or two days of the year. That prize money in itself, if spread throughout the industry would do far more good than thrown at those who don't need it, those only wishing to prance around in the limelight for a day or two then disappear for another 12 months all at our expense. And all in the name of being a truly international event.
Bring back the days of Might & Power leading all the way, bring back the days of Sunline demoralising a top class field, bring back the days of the fighting tiger Northerly staving off all challengers. Please bring us some stayers who are able to compete at the highest level again.
Friday, October 17, 2008
Caulfield Cup
The Caulfield Cup
If the Melbourne Cup is the race that stops a nation, then the Caulfield Cup is the race that stops 90% of the nation 17 days earlier. Always remembered for being the best horses race, the Caulfield Cup is as meaningful to rank & file punters as is the Melbourne Cup is to the once a year punter. The 2008 version as always brings together the best horses in Australia, coupled with the best from New Zealand, with a few European adventurers for good measure. It looks a great race on paper, barrier draws appeared to have really evened out the main winning chances, as we have become accustomed to, luck in running will play the most vital role.
The weather in Melbourne will be fine, the track will be dead, unfortunately irrigation has been again been used to "affect" the track. Hopefully by the first race this will not have any affect or bias on the results of any of the ten races at Caulfield, in particular the Cup.
There are more horses in race that cannot win, than have serious winning chances. This happens every year, the MRC want a capacity field, owners & trainers want their horse to run and who can blame them, the thrill of having a runner in the Caulfield Cup would fulfill most owners ultimate racing dream. Regrettably what this means, is that some serious winning hopefuls will not obtain the necessary luck to be able to win this prestigious event, with some horses with little or no winning hope, will simply get in the way of the good horses. And this is why the horse who obtains the best run, without interference, will win the 2008 Caulfield Cup.
Firstly let's attack who cannot win. Top weight Weekend Hussler has drawn extremely awkwardly in barrier 11, this is his first attempt at 2400m, he hasn't won beyond 1800m, so he will require every tiny little thing to go his way for him to win. From the barrier, he has to go forward, having never raced over the distance, he will be expecting a faster speed, and with no other known leader in the race, he may well even be forced to take up the running himself. Either way, he will use up plenty of petrol in the early stages, and will be a spent force when the others get serious at the 600m mark. No Weekend Hussler in the 2008 Caulfield Cup.
Prepost 2007 favourite Maldivian, who was scratched at the barrier, fronts up again in 2008, however his form this time around has not given supporters or punters a lot to become enthused about. In fact, his recent efforts have been very weak. From barrier 18, he will have to come across the field to get to the fence and lead early, he will pull fiercely and will use up all his energy in the initial 600m of the race. No Big Mal in 2008.
We then have to ask how & why a few others actually got into the race. Ice Chariot, Viewed, Fiumicino, Dolphin Jo, Riva San, Zagreb, Barbaricus, not to mention the emergencies, honestly have no winning chance, all they will do is get in the road of the cream. Yes, they qualified to gain a start under the rules, so they do deserve their moment of glory, let's hope they don't ruin the chances of another.
There are two European horses who have attained a start, neither of whom we can line up properly against the better Autralian & New Zealand horses. Mad Rush and All The Good will both require plenty of speed on, and they should get it, as there is always plenty of pace in a Caulfield Cup, 2008 will be no different. The big if is, have they settled in & acclimatised so they can perform at their peak? From experience, rarely do the European or Japanese perform unless they have had one feeler run before they peak. Both will run good races, doubt either can win first up in Australia.
New Zealand give us three realistic chances in the 2008 Caulfield Cup, or do they? Nom De Juere & Red Ruler quinellad the AJC Derby over 2400m in April, assuring both of a walk up start in the Caulfield Cup. How strong was that for? Considering the EI situation in Australia late 2007, many horses simply were not at their peak for the autumn carnival placing grave doubt on the form coming from it. Look at the Group 1 winners from the autumn, and only those who were EI free have gone on from there, most others have showed the form simply does not stand up. Both Nom De Jue & Red Ruler have failed to impress since the autumn, failing to win the major Group 1s in NZ. In saying that, both have undeniable chances in the 2008 Caulfield Cup, as the race is not strong, with Red Ruler from the inside obtaining a perfect run in transit. Unfortunately Nom De Jue has drawn 20, he will need everything to go his way to win. The third of the NZ contingent is the Steven McKee trained mare Boundless, doubtful she can beat Red Ruler, so happy to risk her.
Well, that doesn't leave us with too many reallistic chances, does it? 2007 winner Master O'Reilly, Turnbull Stakes victor Lottorio, 2007 runner up Douro Valley & the David Hayes trained master of the form reversal Guillotine. If someone had have told me 12 months ago Guillotine was a Caulfield Cup winner, I would have immediately signed them into the One Flew Over The Cuckoos Nest asylum. Would you have believed it? No, so let's leave him out as well.
The best guide to the Caulfield Cup has always been the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington a fornight before. Lottorio won well that day, sitting off the pace, then producing an exciting finishing burst that had Group 1 winner written all over it. He has an undeniable winning chance. However, he rises 1kg on that victory, plus the increase of 400m in distance, so there is a slight query there. He has drawn barrier 10, so will need luck to get scross to get a cosy run, a run that will be required to win a Caulfield Cup. Steven King is the man for that job, most experienced, happy to have him on anything I back at any time of the year, especially Cup time. Lottorio is in the race right up to his ears.
2007 runner up Douro Valley showed last week at Caulfield he is now fit and ready to show his best in the 2008 version by winning the WFA Caulfield Stakes. Ridden like the good thing he was, James Winks took the gelding straight to the front, to lead all the way over 200m. From barrier 2 tomorrow, Douro Valley will get the run of the race, and like last year, he will look the winner at the top of the straight and will run the 2400m right out. Douro valley a real hope of going one better in 2008.
2008 victor Master O'Reilly has only had two runs back from a spell to fit him for the 2008 assignment. However, he did have a mid year preparation, so only had a couple of weeks in the paddock and has been in work for as long as most of the others. His run behind Lottorio in the Turnbull was outstanding, meets him 1.5kg better and will strip much fitter for the outing. He has had two starts at Caulfield voer 2400m, both have resulted in wins. The only issues with him, is barrier 13 (he came from 6 last year to win after a cosy run and a great ride), and whether he is fit enough. His obvious target this year is the first Tuesday in November, however after his Turnbull effort, one simply cannot sell him short for 2008 Caulfield Cup, If Vlad Duric can get him across from the barrier one off the fence, then bring him into the race at the 800m, he is a serious winning chance.
Should be a terrific race, looking forward to it immensely, let's hope we don't have the drama we endured in 2007 in the lead up when Maldivian & Eskimo Queen were a late scratchings at the barrier. Our selections are:-
1 Master O'Reilly
2 Douro valley
3 Lottorio
4 Red Ruler
Best of luck to all those having a punt in the Caulfield Cup.
If the Melbourne Cup is the race that stops a nation, then the Caulfield Cup is the race that stops 90% of the nation 17 days earlier. Always remembered for being the best horses race, the Caulfield Cup is as meaningful to rank & file punters as is the Melbourne Cup is to the once a year punter. The 2008 version as always brings together the best horses in Australia, coupled with the best from New Zealand, with a few European adventurers for good measure. It looks a great race on paper, barrier draws appeared to have really evened out the main winning chances, as we have become accustomed to, luck in running will play the most vital role.
The weather in Melbourne will be fine, the track will be dead, unfortunately irrigation has been again been used to "affect" the track. Hopefully by the first race this will not have any affect or bias on the results of any of the ten races at Caulfield, in particular the Cup.
There are more horses in race that cannot win, than have serious winning chances. This happens every year, the MRC want a capacity field, owners & trainers want their horse to run and who can blame them, the thrill of having a runner in the Caulfield Cup would fulfill most owners ultimate racing dream. Regrettably what this means, is that some serious winning hopefuls will not obtain the necessary luck to be able to win this prestigious event, with some horses with little or no winning hope, will simply get in the way of the good horses. And this is why the horse who obtains the best run, without interference, will win the 2008 Caulfield Cup.
Firstly let's attack who cannot win. Top weight Weekend Hussler has drawn extremely awkwardly in barrier 11, this is his first attempt at 2400m, he hasn't won beyond 1800m, so he will require every tiny little thing to go his way for him to win. From the barrier, he has to go forward, having never raced over the distance, he will be expecting a faster speed, and with no other known leader in the race, he may well even be forced to take up the running himself. Either way, he will use up plenty of petrol in the early stages, and will be a spent force when the others get serious at the 600m mark. No Weekend Hussler in the 2008 Caulfield Cup.
Prepost 2007 favourite Maldivian, who was scratched at the barrier, fronts up again in 2008, however his form this time around has not given supporters or punters a lot to become enthused about. In fact, his recent efforts have been very weak. From barrier 18, he will have to come across the field to get to the fence and lead early, he will pull fiercely and will use up all his energy in the initial 600m of the race. No Big Mal in 2008.
We then have to ask how & why a few others actually got into the race. Ice Chariot, Viewed, Fiumicino, Dolphin Jo, Riva San, Zagreb, Barbaricus, not to mention the emergencies, honestly have no winning chance, all they will do is get in the road of the cream. Yes, they qualified to gain a start under the rules, so they do deserve their moment of glory, let's hope they don't ruin the chances of another.
There are two European horses who have attained a start, neither of whom we can line up properly against the better Autralian & New Zealand horses. Mad Rush and All The Good will both require plenty of speed on, and they should get it, as there is always plenty of pace in a Caulfield Cup, 2008 will be no different. The big if is, have they settled in & acclimatised so they can perform at their peak? From experience, rarely do the European or Japanese perform unless they have had one feeler run before they peak. Both will run good races, doubt either can win first up in Australia.
New Zealand give us three realistic chances in the 2008 Caulfield Cup, or do they? Nom De Juere & Red Ruler quinellad the AJC Derby over 2400m in April, assuring both of a walk up start in the Caulfield Cup. How strong was that for? Considering the EI situation in Australia late 2007, many horses simply were not at their peak for the autumn carnival placing grave doubt on the form coming from it. Look at the Group 1 winners from the autumn, and only those who were EI free have gone on from there, most others have showed the form simply does not stand up. Both Nom De Jue & Red Ruler have failed to impress since the autumn, failing to win the major Group 1s in NZ. In saying that, both have undeniable chances in the 2008 Caulfield Cup, as the race is not strong, with Red Ruler from the inside obtaining a perfect run in transit. Unfortunately Nom De Jue has drawn 20, he will need everything to go his way to win. The third of the NZ contingent is the Steven McKee trained mare Boundless, doubtful she can beat Red Ruler, so happy to risk her.
Well, that doesn't leave us with too many reallistic chances, does it? 2007 winner Master O'Reilly, Turnbull Stakes victor Lottorio, 2007 runner up Douro Valley & the David Hayes trained master of the form reversal Guillotine. If someone had have told me 12 months ago Guillotine was a Caulfield Cup winner, I would have immediately signed them into the One Flew Over The Cuckoos Nest asylum. Would you have believed it? No, so let's leave him out as well.
The best guide to the Caulfield Cup has always been the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington a fornight before. Lottorio won well that day, sitting off the pace, then producing an exciting finishing burst that had Group 1 winner written all over it. He has an undeniable winning chance. However, he rises 1kg on that victory, plus the increase of 400m in distance, so there is a slight query there. He has drawn barrier 10, so will need luck to get scross to get a cosy run, a run that will be required to win a Caulfield Cup. Steven King is the man for that job, most experienced, happy to have him on anything I back at any time of the year, especially Cup time. Lottorio is in the race right up to his ears.
2007 runner up Douro Valley showed last week at Caulfield he is now fit and ready to show his best in the 2008 version by winning the WFA Caulfield Stakes. Ridden like the good thing he was, James Winks took the gelding straight to the front, to lead all the way over 200m. From barrier 2 tomorrow, Douro Valley will get the run of the race, and like last year, he will look the winner at the top of the straight and will run the 2400m right out. Douro valley a real hope of going one better in 2008.
2008 victor Master O'Reilly has only had two runs back from a spell to fit him for the 2008 assignment. However, he did have a mid year preparation, so only had a couple of weeks in the paddock and has been in work for as long as most of the others. His run behind Lottorio in the Turnbull was outstanding, meets him 1.5kg better and will strip much fitter for the outing. He has had two starts at Caulfield voer 2400m, both have resulted in wins. The only issues with him, is barrier 13 (he came from 6 last year to win after a cosy run and a great ride), and whether he is fit enough. His obvious target this year is the first Tuesday in November, however after his Turnbull effort, one simply cannot sell him short for 2008 Caulfield Cup, If Vlad Duric can get him across from the barrier one off the fence, then bring him into the race at the 800m, he is a serious winning chance.
Should be a terrific race, looking forward to it immensely, let's hope we don't have the drama we endured in 2007 in the lead up when Maldivian & Eskimo Queen were a late scratchings at the barrier. Our selections are:-
1 Master O'Reilly
2 Douro valley
3 Lottorio
4 Red Ruler
Best of luck to all those having a punt in the Caulfield Cup.
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