Monitoring Weather & Track Conditions

We briefly covered in our post yesterday the consequences to punters when tracks are downgraded during an afternoon's racing. Now this happened at Rosehill on Saturday, when heavy rain fell throughout the afternoon causing the track to be downgraded from good to dead, and then to slow. Plenty on course actually thought the track was heavy coming into the last. Punters who placed their bets early on Saturday, before the rains came, did their money cold by backing horses they thought were running on a good track. They also did their money cold backing horses starting from good barrier draws, because with the rain, the inside of the track cut up very badly giving horses in the lead and near the fence absolutely no hope of winning.

Firstly, let's cover a couple of things we do religiously in our punting.

Firstly, we do not bet on tracks that are worse than dead. There are many reasons for this. But the main reason is that even though a horse handled a slow or heavy track condition at one venue, it does not necessarily mean that same horse will handle it at another venue. Alternatively, if a horse fails miserably on a heavy surface at one venue, he may not necessarily fail to handle the heavy on another surface. Why? Because every track has a different base, different cambour, different grass. And it is impossible for the punter to ascertain all the necessary information to determine whether a horse is running on a similar surface today, to which he raced last week. To predict acurately whether a horse will or will not handle a rain affected track is trying to predict the future, and usually form reversals. And it is extremely difficult to predict form reversals unless you have every peice of information required. And the punter does not have all the information. Seriously, save your money, make one of your basic rules not to bet on rain affected tracks.

Secondly, as we did this morning and every morning, we check the radar on the BOM web site to see if there is any rain heading toward the venue where we intend to have a bet. We also check the radar around midday to ensure rain will not play a part in the afternoon's punting. This is an integral part of our punting procedures. It ensures we avail ourselves of important weather information, and we can bet with confidence, or reconsider our position.

Today (and Saturday) is a typical example of why we should apply both the previous two methods to our punting. We came up with two good things today, one at Goulburn and one at Mildura. After checking weather and track conditions, and applying our final morning filters, these two horses stood out and looked very safe bets today. However, we then checked the Mildura radar, and lo and behold, the radar showed rain in the area, in fact it had been raining at Mildura for a couple of hours. And more rain is on the way. Admittedly, it is not heavy rain, however, if it does continue for several hours, will most definately have an affect on the track. We then checked the BOM radar at Goulburn, and found a large rain depression heading directly toward the city. It looked like it had not rained as yet, however, it is a situation to be closely monitored throughout the morning and afternoon. We do all our form and selections, for good tracks. Now, had we not checked the radar situation, then we would have placed our bets blindly and if the rains came, we could possibly be betting on rain affetced tracks, not knowing whether our horses are able to handle it or not. And also not knowing whether a "swimmer" is engaged in the race to knock our selection off. After the bets are placed, we have no way of cancelling them, so we must be sure of every factor prior to any bet being placed. Otherwise, our hard earned money may be gone forever, without us even getting a decent run for it.

What we now must do is monitor the weather and track conditions throughout the day. If more rains come to the venues, then we don't bet. We will watch the first 3-4 races at each venue to assess the possibility of any track bias. Both our selections have drawn inside gates, so may well be severely disadvantaged if the rail cuts up as it did on Saturday at Rosehill. Be aware of any track downgrade throughout the day, and of any distinct track bias caused by waning weather conditions.

Serious punters should make sure they take these measures into account every day before having a bet. Monitor weather and track conditions every day and adjust your thoughts accordingly. If rains come and the tracks are downgraded, don't bet, it is a simple as that.

And as we mentioned yesterday, form coming out of these meetings run on downgraded tracks, can be very misleading. Be very careful when assessing form out of these meetings, form reversals will abound for several weeks after, making punting a nightmare. At least now, youa re preapred for it.

Oh, and I suppose you would like to know what the two good things are? We won't be sending emails out to members this morning because we don't know how the tracks will be playing come race time mid afternoon. We don't even know if we will or won't back these two horses today. Not until very close to jump time of both races after serious consideration is given to the prevailing weather and track conditions and bias. If either tracks are downgraded, we won't be betting.

The selections were:-

Goulburn R5 No4 Brisk Joh
Mildura R6 No1 Schwarzkopf


Good luck and profitable punting to all.