Golden Slipper Week

Firstly, just a review of our last post in regards to weather and track conditions. Last Monday, Goulburn races were abandoned due to the heavy rain, so we all saved our money there. Mildura track was actually downgraded to a dead 5, and course commentator Rick McIntosh indicated serveral times during the afternoon the track was believed to be slow by the jockeys. Every winner came down the middle of the track, leaders and horses on the fence were severely disadvantaged. So common sense prevailed, and no bets were placed. This is a very important factor to keep monitoring during every punting day at every venue. Ignore it at your own wallets peril.

This week is a big week in Sydney racing, with the lead up to the No.1 2yo race of the year, the Golden Slipper Stakes. The race this year looks more even than most, with a different horse winning every lead up race over the past 3 weeks. Barrier draw will be crucial, and anything that draws outside 5 or 6 will see their chances wash down the drain. Whichever horse horse draws well, gets the best run in the race, and gets clear running in the straight will win. And the other important factor, which most of us will never know until after the race has been run, is which of the combatants have been able to stand up to all the early pressure placed on their legs and and tendons and run faster on the day.

Until recently, 2yo years have been dominated by one or two very good horses. However over the past 10 years this is certainly not the case. We have not seen a Vain, or a Luskin Star, a John's Hope or a Manikato dominate the way it commonly occurred 20-30 years ago. The reason is fairly obvious. The breeding industry has changed so much over the years, with a lot of shuttle stallions coming to Australia and literally a hundred sons of Danehill standing at stud, that the bloodlines are slowly being spread so far, that the horses are much more evenly matched now than in yesteryear. Similar things are happening in the top WFA races around the country, with no sign of a Sunline, Northerly, Lonhro or lo and behold a Kingston Town to dominate.

And the prizemoney put up by the STC for the Golden Slipper is totally outrageous. It encourages owners and trainers to race horses at far too young an age, when their bones structure may not be fully mature to cope with the stress of racing. Seldom these days do we see Golden Slipper runners, let alone winners go to greatness at an older age. Most are either retired to stud, or retired due to injury much earlier than horse who are not over raced as 2yos.

And because the Australian breeding industry angles toward producing a fast early running 2yo, the middle distance & staying bred horses are suffering a slow agonising death. Overseas bred horses have now won the last 5 Melbourne Cups. Makybe Diva's dam was purchased in England and brought to Australia specifically to breed a staying horse. Middle distance and staying races are dwindling in numbers, except in Victoria, and entries in these races are continually on the decline. A very sad indictment on not only the race scheduling and structure of the industry, but on the Australian breeding industry itself.

We now breed speedy squibs, rushed into racing too early, with more horses breaking down than ever before. And we also have far too many slow horses and broodmares to strengthen the breeding lines. The thorughbred lines are weakening further year after year, producing fewer good horses, only producing a more even lot of thoroughbreds.

And there is no end in sight. With the major studs & auctioneers controlling yearling sales, a select few purchasing the quality lots at ridiculously huge selling prices, little can be done to steady the current situation. You cannot blame owners and trainers for targetting races like the Golden Slipper, who wouldn't want to win millions of dollars with a horse having it's third or fourth start in a race? Race clubs have to take some responsibility, and spread prizemoney around more evenly, especially to middle distance and staying races. Our fear is this will not happen.

So, who will win Australia's most prestigious 2yo race? We will post later in the week after the barrier draw with some thoughts. But one thing is for certain, we will not be betting on the 2007 Golden Slipper.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.