Horses To Follow

We have given out 4 selections over the past 2 days for our members for 2 winners. Our winning strike rate is still well over 45% with an average winning price of $2.68. Still nice profits to be made at level stakes, and even better using a more sophisticated staking plan.

One of the services we provide to our members are horses to follow, which we inform members via email the morning they are running. Yesterday morning we reminded our members that Forest Knight was a horse to follow and was running at Sandown. He duely saluted at the succulent odds of $6.50. Another horse to follow which ran yesterday was Bon Hoffa, who ran a terrific second to Apache Cat in the Blamey Stakes. Bon Hoffa was double firgure odds and paid $2.50 for the place, and the quinella with the favourite paid well over $7 for a single dollar investment.

Forest Knight is now getting up in the weights a little, and will have to find black type company to get some weight relief. However, he is very consistent, always puts in and has a will to win. He is still worth following. There is definately a race for Bon Hoffa next start. Maybe a Doncaster will be a little too steep for him, as he will come up against Apache Cat again, however a race over 1800m-2000m awaits him. He should continued to be followed.

Apache Cat's run yesterday to win the Blamey Stakes was outstanding, and he now gets into a race like the Doncaster with an excellent chance. He pulled a little yesterday in the early stages with a muddling pace, but that didn't deter him in the straight as he cleared out to win easily. That was only his third run after a spell, so there is most definately another win or two in him this preparation.

Two others who impressed us greatly yesterday. At Sandown, Maldivian won the last in emphatic fashion, finally showing everyone the early hype around this horse was indeed justified. It took him a while to win his first race but has now won 3 from 9 along with 5 placings, and the way he won yesterday a Group race is certainly not out of the question for him. He sits right up on the pace, stays out of trouble, but still settles well enough to allow him a good kick at the finish. And he should get 2000m going on his pedigree and the way he won yesterday. Maldivian is definately a horse to follow.

The other horse to follow from yesterday is WA Derby contender New Spice. He won the traditional lead up yesterday comfortably after overcoming a few difficulties in the run. New Spice was settled well in the early stages in 3rd spot just off the pace, however, at around the 1000m, a few others made runs around the outside causing New Spice to ease and lose his position. He was good enough to overcome this and by the time the field was turning for home, New Spice was out and running. He showed an extraordinary turn of foot in the striaght to clear out and win by over 3 lengths. New Spice should win the WA Derby comfortably in two weeks.

Our losing selection yesterday was Nike Heir at Ascot. He was desparately unlucky and probably should have won. He got a long way back in the field, but was badly held up when trying to improve around the 600m. He didn't get clear until well into the straight, but by this time the winning birds had flown. He rocketed to the line to finish third, beaten less than a length, another 50m he wins. Nike Heir should also be winning next time he steps out onto the Ascot turf.

We will remind our members when these horses next run in our regular morning emails.

Just a quick comment in regards to Rosehill Gardens yesterday. Most unfortunate for the STC that the rain came and the track deteriorated in condition. From race 2 onwards, the fence became a no go zone and no horse led, or came along the rails to win. In fact, by the last horses were winning in the centre of the track or even wider.

Two things come out of this situation. Firstly, yesterday's rain at Rosehill highlights one important facet of punting. Don't place bets too early so you can adjust your bets in conjunction with prevalent track and weather conditions. By waiting to place bets until close to race jump time, you can take into account a deteriorating track like Rosehill yesterday. Horses drawn inside barriers yesterday, had little or no hope of winning, unless they were snagged back from the start and circled the field. We rated Posadas clearly on top in Race 8 yesterday, however in the morning decided no bet because he drew so wide from the 1200m start, which as eveyones knows is dynamite. But due to the track favouring horses out wide, Posadas came down the middle of the track to win. This is one circumstance where outside barriers can be beneficial, and inside barriers are rendered totally useless. So take heed during the days racing to any prevailing bias or change in conditions, and rearrange your bets to suit these occurrances. In fact, when rain like this falls during a meeting, then it is probably best not to have any bets at all.

The second outcome of the Rosehill meeting yesterday, is to just totally forget the form. Because of the track conditions, and track bias, there will be plenty of form reversals to come out of the meeting. Some horses who were disadvantaged, will improve dramatically at their next outing, whereas some horses who were distinctly advantaged yesterday will not perform as well next start. Bear this in mind when assessing form over the next few weeks in Sydney. Those horses who were stuck near the rails in the later races and were well beaten may improve sharply at their next assigment. And those horses who sat deep in the better going and came down the outside, may not be as advantaged when next they race. It is difficult to predict form reversals at any time, so bet with caution in Sydney over the next few weeks.

We cannot find a good thing for today, but there will be plenty next week. So if you would like to become a member, please contact us profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will assist you to join in all the winners.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.