Firstly, just a review of our last post in regards to weather and track conditions. Last Monday, Goulburn races were abandoned due to the heavy rain, so we all saved our money there. Mildura track was actually downgraded to a dead 5, and course commentator Rick McIntosh indicated serveral times during the afternoon the track was believed to be slow by the jockeys. Every winner came down the middle of the track, leaders and horses on the fence were severely disadvantaged. So common sense prevailed, and no bets were placed. This is a very important factor to keep monitoring during every punting day at every venue. Ignore it at your own wallets peril.
This week is a big week in Sydney racing, with the lead up to the No.1 2yo race of the year, the Golden Slipper Stakes. The race this year looks more even than most, with a different horse winning every lead up race over the past 3 weeks. Barrier draw will be crucial, and anything that draws outside 5 or 6 will see their chances wash down the drain. Whichever horse horse draws well, gets the best run in the race, and gets clear running in the straight will win. And the other important factor, which most of us will never know until after the race has been run, is which of the combatants have been able to stand up to all the early pressure placed on their legs and and tendons and run faster on the day.
Until recently, 2yo years have been dominated by one or two very good horses. However over the past 10 years this is certainly not the case. We have not seen a Vain, or a Luskin Star, a John's Hope or a Manikato dominate the way it commonly occurred 20-30 years ago. The reason is fairly obvious. The breeding industry has changed so much over the years, with a lot of shuttle stallions coming to Australia and literally a hundred sons of Danehill standing at stud, that the bloodlines are slowly being spread so far, that the horses are much more evenly matched now than in yesteryear. Similar things are happening in the top WFA races around the country, with no sign of a Sunline, Northerly, Lonhro or lo and behold a Kingston Town to dominate.
And the prizemoney put up by the STC for the Golden Slipper is totally outrageous. It encourages owners and trainers to race horses at far too young an age, when their bones structure may not be fully mature to cope with the stress of racing. Seldom these days do we see Golden Slipper runners, let alone winners go to greatness at an older age. Most are either retired to stud, or retired due to injury much earlier than horse who are not over raced as 2yos.
And because the Australian breeding industry angles toward producing a fast early running 2yo, the middle distance & staying bred horses are suffering a slow agonising death. Overseas bred horses have now won the last 5 Melbourne Cups. Makybe Diva's dam was purchased in England and brought to Australia specifically to breed a staying horse. Middle distance and staying races are dwindling in numbers, except in Victoria, and entries in these races are continually on the decline. A very sad indictment on not only the race scheduling and structure of the industry, but on the Australian breeding industry itself.
We now breed speedy squibs, rushed into racing too early, with more horses breaking down than ever before. And we also have far too many slow horses and broodmares to strengthen the breeding lines. The thorughbred lines are weakening further year after year, producing fewer good horses, only producing a more even lot of thoroughbreds.
And there is no end in sight. With the major studs & auctioneers controlling yearling sales, a select few purchasing the quality lots at ridiculously huge selling prices, little can be done to steady the current situation. You cannot blame owners and trainers for targetting races like the Golden Slipper, who wouldn't want to win millions of dollars with a horse having it's third or fourth start in a race? Race clubs have to take some responsibility, and spread prizemoney around more evenly, especially to middle distance and staying races. Our fear is this will not happen.
So, who will win Australia's most prestigious 2yo race? We will post later in the week after the barrier draw with some thoughts. But one thing is for certain, we will not be betting on the 2007 Golden Slipper.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Monday, March 26, 2007
Monday, March 19, 2007
Monitoring Weather & Track Conditions
We briefly covered in our post yesterday the consequences to punters when tracks are downgraded during an afternoon's racing. Now this happened at Rosehill on Saturday, when heavy rain fell throughout the afternoon causing the track to be downgraded from good to dead, and then to slow. Plenty on course actually thought the track was heavy coming into the last. Punters who placed their bets early on Saturday, before the rains came, did their money cold by backing horses they thought were running on a good track. They also did their money cold backing horses starting from good barrier draws, because with the rain, the inside of the track cut up very badly giving horses in the lead and near the fence absolutely no hope of winning.
Firstly, let's cover a couple of things we do religiously in our punting.
Firstly, we do not bet on tracks that are worse than dead. There are many reasons for this. But the main reason is that even though a horse handled a slow or heavy track condition at one venue, it does not necessarily mean that same horse will handle it at another venue. Alternatively, if a horse fails miserably on a heavy surface at one venue, he may not necessarily fail to handle the heavy on another surface. Why? Because every track has a different base, different cambour, different grass. And it is impossible for the punter to ascertain all the necessary information to determine whether a horse is running on a similar surface today, to which he raced last week. To predict acurately whether a horse will or will not handle a rain affected track is trying to predict the future, and usually form reversals. And it is extremely difficult to predict form reversals unless you have every peice of information required. And the punter does not have all the information. Seriously, save your money, make one of your basic rules not to bet on rain affected tracks.
Secondly, as we did this morning and every morning, we check the radar on the BOM web site to see if there is any rain heading toward the venue where we intend to have a bet. We also check the radar around midday to ensure rain will not play a part in the afternoon's punting. This is an integral part of our punting procedures. It ensures we avail ourselves of important weather information, and we can bet with confidence, or reconsider our position.
Today (and Saturday) is a typical example of why we should apply both the previous two methods to our punting. We came up with two good things today, one at Goulburn and one at Mildura. After checking weather and track conditions, and applying our final morning filters, these two horses stood out and looked very safe bets today. However, we then checked the Mildura radar, and lo and behold, the radar showed rain in the area, in fact it had been raining at Mildura for a couple of hours. And more rain is on the way. Admittedly, it is not heavy rain, however, if it does continue for several hours, will most definately have an affect on the track. We then checked the BOM radar at Goulburn, and found a large rain depression heading directly toward the city. It looked like it had not rained as yet, however, it is a situation to be closely monitored throughout the morning and afternoon. We do all our form and selections, for good tracks. Now, had we not checked the radar situation, then we would have placed our bets blindly and if the rains came, we could possibly be betting on rain affetced tracks, not knowing whether our horses are able to handle it or not. And also not knowing whether a "swimmer" is engaged in the race to knock our selection off. After the bets are placed, we have no way of cancelling them, so we must be sure of every factor prior to any bet being placed. Otherwise, our hard earned money may be gone forever, without us even getting a decent run for it.
What we now must do is monitor the weather and track conditions throughout the day. If more rains come to the venues, then we don't bet. We will watch the first 3-4 races at each venue to assess the possibility of any track bias. Both our selections have drawn inside gates, so may well be severely disadvantaged if the rail cuts up as it did on Saturday at Rosehill. Be aware of any track downgrade throughout the day, and of any distinct track bias caused by waning weather conditions.
Serious punters should make sure they take these measures into account every day before having a bet. Monitor weather and track conditions every day and adjust your thoughts accordingly. If rains come and the tracks are downgraded, don't bet, it is a simple as that.
And as we mentioned yesterday, form coming out of these meetings run on downgraded tracks, can be very misleading. Be very careful when assessing form out of these meetings, form reversals will abound for several weeks after, making punting a nightmare. At least now, youa re preapred for it.
Oh, and I suppose you would like to know what the two good things are? We won't be sending emails out to members this morning because we don't know how the tracks will be playing come race time mid afternoon. We don't even know if we will or won't back these two horses today. Not until very close to jump time of both races after serious consideration is given to the prevailing weather and track conditions and bias. If either tracks are downgraded, we won't be betting.
The selections were:-
Goulburn R5 No4 Brisk Joh
Mildura R6 No1 Schwarzkopf
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Firstly, let's cover a couple of things we do religiously in our punting.
Firstly, we do not bet on tracks that are worse than dead. There are many reasons for this. But the main reason is that even though a horse handled a slow or heavy track condition at one venue, it does not necessarily mean that same horse will handle it at another venue. Alternatively, if a horse fails miserably on a heavy surface at one venue, he may not necessarily fail to handle the heavy on another surface. Why? Because every track has a different base, different cambour, different grass. And it is impossible for the punter to ascertain all the necessary information to determine whether a horse is running on a similar surface today, to which he raced last week. To predict acurately whether a horse will or will not handle a rain affected track is trying to predict the future, and usually form reversals. And it is extremely difficult to predict form reversals unless you have every peice of information required. And the punter does not have all the information. Seriously, save your money, make one of your basic rules not to bet on rain affected tracks.
Secondly, as we did this morning and every morning, we check the radar on the BOM web site to see if there is any rain heading toward the venue where we intend to have a bet. We also check the radar around midday to ensure rain will not play a part in the afternoon's punting. This is an integral part of our punting procedures. It ensures we avail ourselves of important weather information, and we can bet with confidence, or reconsider our position.
Today (and Saturday) is a typical example of why we should apply both the previous two methods to our punting. We came up with two good things today, one at Goulburn and one at Mildura. After checking weather and track conditions, and applying our final morning filters, these two horses stood out and looked very safe bets today. However, we then checked the Mildura radar, and lo and behold, the radar showed rain in the area, in fact it had been raining at Mildura for a couple of hours. And more rain is on the way. Admittedly, it is not heavy rain, however, if it does continue for several hours, will most definately have an affect on the track. We then checked the BOM radar at Goulburn, and found a large rain depression heading directly toward the city. It looked like it had not rained as yet, however, it is a situation to be closely monitored throughout the morning and afternoon. We do all our form and selections, for good tracks. Now, had we not checked the radar situation, then we would have placed our bets blindly and if the rains came, we could possibly be betting on rain affetced tracks, not knowing whether our horses are able to handle it or not. And also not knowing whether a "swimmer" is engaged in the race to knock our selection off. After the bets are placed, we have no way of cancelling them, so we must be sure of every factor prior to any bet being placed. Otherwise, our hard earned money may be gone forever, without us even getting a decent run for it.
What we now must do is monitor the weather and track conditions throughout the day. If more rains come to the venues, then we don't bet. We will watch the first 3-4 races at each venue to assess the possibility of any track bias. Both our selections have drawn inside gates, so may well be severely disadvantaged if the rail cuts up as it did on Saturday at Rosehill. Be aware of any track downgrade throughout the day, and of any distinct track bias caused by waning weather conditions.
Serious punters should make sure they take these measures into account every day before having a bet. Monitor weather and track conditions every day and adjust your thoughts accordingly. If rains come and the tracks are downgraded, don't bet, it is a simple as that.
And as we mentioned yesterday, form coming out of these meetings run on downgraded tracks, can be very misleading. Be very careful when assessing form out of these meetings, form reversals will abound for several weeks after, making punting a nightmare. At least now, youa re preapred for it.
Oh, and I suppose you would like to know what the two good things are? We won't be sending emails out to members this morning because we don't know how the tracks will be playing come race time mid afternoon. We don't even know if we will or won't back these two horses today. Not until very close to jump time of both races after serious consideration is given to the prevailing weather and track conditions and bias. If either tracks are downgraded, we won't be betting.
The selections were:-
Goulburn R5 No4 Brisk Joh
Mildura R6 No1 Schwarzkopf
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Sunday, March 18, 2007
Horses To Follow
We have given out 4 selections over the past 2 days for our members for 2 winners. Our winning strike rate is still well over 45% with an average winning price of $2.68. Still nice profits to be made at level stakes, and even better using a more sophisticated staking plan.
One of the services we provide to our members are horses to follow, which we inform members via email the morning they are running. Yesterday morning we reminded our members that Forest Knight was a horse to follow and was running at Sandown. He duely saluted at the succulent odds of $6.50. Another horse to follow which ran yesterday was Bon Hoffa, who ran a terrific second to Apache Cat in the Blamey Stakes. Bon Hoffa was double firgure odds and paid $2.50 for the place, and the quinella with the favourite paid well over $7 for a single dollar investment.
Forest Knight is now getting up in the weights a little, and will have to find black type company to get some weight relief. However, he is very consistent, always puts in and has a will to win. He is still worth following. There is definately a race for Bon Hoffa next start. Maybe a Doncaster will be a little too steep for him, as he will come up against Apache Cat again, however a race over 1800m-2000m awaits him. He should continued to be followed.
Apache Cat's run yesterday to win the Blamey Stakes was outstanding, and he now gets into a race like the Doncaster with an excellent chance. He pulled a little yesterday in the early stages with a muddling pace, but that didn't deter him in the straight as he cleared out to win easily. That was only his third run after a spell, so there is most definately another win or two in him this preparation.
Two others who impressed us greatly yesterday. At Sandown, Maldivian won the last in emphatic fashion, finally showing everyone the early hype around this horse was indeed justified. It took him a while to win his first race but has now won 3 from 9 along with 5 placings, and the way he won yesterday a Group race is certainly not out of the question for him. He sits right up on the pace, stays out of trouble, but still settles well enough to allow him a good kick at the finish. And he should get 2000m going on his pedigree and the way he won yesterday. Maldivian is definately a horse to follow.
The other horse to follow from yesterday is WA Derby contender New Spice. He won the traditional lead up yesterday comfortably after overcoming a few difficulties in the run. New Spice was settled well in the early stages in 3rd spot just off the pace, however, at around the 1000m, a few others made runs around the outside causing New Spice to ease and lose his position. He was good enough to overcome this and by the time the field was turning for home, New Spice was out and running. He showed an extraordinary turn of foot in the striaght to clear out and win by over 3 lengths. New Spice should win the WA Derby comfortably in two weeks.
Our losing selection yesterday was Nike Heir at Ascot. He was desparately unlucky and probably should have won. He got a long way back in the field, but was badly held up when trying to improve around the 600m. He didn't get clear until well into the straight, but by this time the winning birds had flown. He rocketed to the line to finish third, beaten less than a length, another 50m he wins. Nike Heir should also be winning next time he steps out onto the Ascot turf.
We will remind our members when these horses next run in our regular morning emails.
Just a quick comment in regards to Rosehill Gardens yesterday. Most unfortunate for the STC that the rain came and the track deteriorated in condition. From race 2 onwards, the fence became a no go zone and no horse led, or came along the rails to win. In fact, by the last horses were winning in the centre of the track or even wider.
Two things come out of this situation. Firstly, yesterday's rain at Rosehill highlights one important facet of punting. Don't place bets too early so you can adjust your bets in conjunction with prevalent track and weather conditions. By waiting to place bets until close to race jump time, you can take into account a deteriorating track like Rosehill yesterday. Horses drawn inside barriers yesterday, had little or no hope of winning, unless they were snagged back from the start and circled the field. We rated Posadas clearly on top in Race 8 yesterday, however in the morning decided no bet because he drew so wide from the 1200m start, which as eveyones knows is dynamite. But due to the track favouring horses out wide, Posadas came down the middle of the track to win. This is one circumstance where outside barriers can be beneficial, and inside barriers are rendered totally useless. So take heed during the days racing to any prevailing bias or change in conditions, and rearrange your bets to suit these occurrances. In fact, when rain like this falls during a meeting, then it is probably best not to have any bets at all.
The second outcome of the Rosehill meeting yesterday, is to just totally forget the form. Because of the track conditions, and track bias, there will be plenty of form reversals to come out of the meeting. Some horses who were disadvantaged, will improve dramatically at their next outing, whereas some horses who were distinctly advantaged yesterday will not perform as well next start. Bear this in mind when assessing form over the next few weeks in Sydney. Those horses who were stuck near the rails in the later races and were well beaten may improve sharply at their next assigment. And those horses who sat deep in the better going and came down the outside, may not be as advantaged when next they race. It is difficult to predict form reversals at any time, so bet with caution in Sydney over the next few weeks.
We cannot find a good thing for today, but there will be plenty next week. So if you would like to become a member, please contact us profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will assist you to join in all the winners.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
One of the services we provide to our members are horses to follow, which we inform members via email the morning they are running. Yesterday morning we reminded our members that Forest Knight was a horse to follow and was running at Sandown. He duely saluted at the succulent odds of $6.50. Another horse to follow which ran yesterday was Bon Hoffa, who ran a terrific second to Apache Cat in the Blamey Stakes. Bon Hoffa was double firgure odds and paid $2.50 for the place, and the quinella with the favourite paid well over $7 for a single dollar investment.
Forest Knight is now getting up in the weights a little, and will have to find black type company to get some weight relief. However, he is very consistent, always puts in and has a will to win. He is still worth following. There is definately a race for Bon Hoffa next start. Maybe a Doncaster will be a little too steep for him, as he will come up against Apache Cat again, however a race over 1800m-2000m awaits him. He should continued to be followed.
Apache Cat's run yesterday to win the Blamey Stakes was outstanding, and he now gets into a race like the Doncaster with an excellent chance. He pulled a little yesterday in the early stages with a muddling pace, but that didn't deter him in the straight as he cleared out to win easily. That was only his third run after a spell, so there is most definately another win or two in him this preparation.
Two others who impressed us greatly yesterday. At Sandown, Maldivian won the last in emphatic fashion, finally showing everyone the early hype around this horse was indeed justified. It took him a while to win his first race but has now won 3 from 9 along with 5 placings, and the way he won yesterday a Group race is certainly not out of the question for him. He sits right up on the pace, stays out of trouble, but still settles well enough to allow him a good kick at the finish. And he should get 2000m going on his pedigree and the way he won yesterday. Maldivian is definately a horse to follow.
The other horse to follow from yesterday is WA Derby contender New Spice. He won the traditional lead up yesterday comfortably after overcoming a few difficulties in the run. New Spice was settled well in the early stages in 3rd spot just off the pace, however, at around the 1000m, a few others made runs around the outside causing New Spice to ease and lose his position. He was good enough to overcome this and by the time the field was turning for home, New Spice was out and running. He showed an extraordinary turn of foot in the striaght to clear out and win by over 3 lengths. New Spice should win the WA Derby comfortably in two weeks.
Our losing selection yesterday was Nike Heir at Ascot. He was desparately unlucky and probably should have won. He got a long way back in the field, but was badly held up when trying to improve around the 600m. He didn't get clear until well into the straight, but by this time the winning birds had flown. He rocketed to the line to finish third, beaten less than a length, another 50m he wins. Nike Heir should also be winning next time he steps out onto the Ascot turf.
We will remind our members when these horses next run in our regular morning emails.
Just a quick comment in regards to Rosehill Gardens yesterday. Most unfortunate for the STC that the rain came and the track deteriorated in condition. From race 2 onwards, the fence became a no go zone and no horse led, or came along the rails to win. In fact, by the last horses were winning in the centre of the track or even wider.
Two things come out of this situation. Firstly, yesterday's rain at Rosehill highlights one important facet of punting. Don't place bets too early so you can adjust your bets in conjunction with prevalent track and weather conditions. By waiting to place bets until close to race jump time, you can take into account a deteriorating track like Rosehill yesterday. Horses drawn inside barriers yesterday, had little or no hope of winning, unless they were snagged back from the start and circled the field. We rated Posadas clearly on top in Race 8 yesterday, however in the morning decided no bet because he drew so wide from the 1200m start, which as eveyones knows is dynamite. But due to the track favouring horses out wide, Posadas came down the middle of the track to win. This is one circumstance where outside barriers can be beneficial, and inside barriers are rendered totally useless. So take heed during the days racing to any prevailing bias or change in conditions, and rearrange your bets to suit these occurrances. In fact, when rain like this falls during a meeting, then it is probably best not to have any bets at all.
The second outcome of the Rosehill meeting yesterday, is to just totally forget the form. Because of the track conditions, and track bias, there will be plenty of form reversals to come out of the meeting. Some horses who were disadvantaged, will improve dramatically at their next outing, whereas some horses who were distinctly advantaged yesterday will not perform as well next start. Bear this in mind when assessing form over the next few weeks in Sydney. Those horses who were stuck near the rails in the later races and were well beaten may improve sharply at their next assigment. And those horses who sat deep in the better going and came down the outside, may not be as advantaged when next they race. It is difficult to predict form reversals at any time, so bet with caution in Sydney over the next few weeks.
We cannot find a good thing for today, but there will be plenty next week. So if you would like to become a member, please contact us profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will assist you to join in all the winners.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Friday, March 16, 2007
The Inevitable Losing Streak
Although still well into profit, our selections over the past two weeks have suffered the inevitable losing run. Only two winners from our last 10 selections, win strike rate dwindling down around the 45% mark, and profits plummeting to only 24% POI. What is positive, and quite outstanding, is the palce strike rate of well over 81%. What this indicates, is we are not that far off the mark, as most if they don't win, run a place.
The other disturbing feature is that everything we select, seems to come up very, very short odds. Yesterday we withheld what we thought was a good thing from our members, just to test the water and see what odds it would come up. The horse won at Hawkesbury, Musaytir, however was odds on throughout betting ending up paying $2.00 across most TAB's. This only proved that others are thinking like us, and there are not hundreds of people following our selections. Again, no great issue there, we just have to publish the winners we find.
So it becomes a mind game, your grit and determination against your excrutiating desire to find that elusive winner. Who wins, how do we overcome it, and how do we get back on track.
The first thing to examine is our selection strategy. We usually come up with 2-3 bets on a daily basis, we then have a closer look at each race we have a selection in and decide approximately what odds the selection will be. Virtually, we have to choose one horse from 3 or 4 bets per day, and hopefully we find the winner, not the loser. Yesterday for example, we thought Hotelier at Townsville was a living certainty, however it was obvious to us (and most others) that he would 2s on. So we didn't make him a selection. We chose a far more difficult race the last at Ballarat, hoping we would get decent odds about our selection, Blue Finch. We thought there were 2 or 3 other definate hopes in the race, allowing us to obtain reasonable odds about the good thing. Alas, Blue Finch opened odds on, drifted to black figures fleetingly, only to be backed heavily late in betting to start even money. And to put the icing on the cake, Blue Finch was run down in the last stride by Assent to run a narrow second. Exasperatingly frustrating to say the least.
We can do a number of things. First inclination is to make less selections. However what we will find in doing this, is the odds of the horses selected will be very skinny. The reason we show a profit is because we find the odd $4-$7 winner to keep the average winning price at a high level (currently $2.75). Second thoughts are to publish all our selections, including the Hotelier's of this world. We are most uncomfortable with this because tipping 1/2 horses, especially if they get beaten is no rocket science. And of course, the most obvious solution is simply to have more bets. Now this is the solution that most punters would adopt. Losing streak must end eventually if you back more horses, with more chances of finding a winner. However what happens in this case is that you also back more losers, and inevitably lose more money.
What we will do is go back to basics.
What is our goal? Our goal is to show a good profit when punting on thoroughbred horses.
Are we achieving our goal? Yes, however not to our high standards.
What were we doing when achieving our main goals different to what we are doing now? Well, when we first began, we were giving out more than one selection per day, especially on Saturdays. In recent times, we have deliberately restricted our selections to one per day.
Okay, so we will go back to our humble beginnings and start giving out more selections. We will inform our members of all the horses we intend to back every day. For example, we had 3 bets yesterday, Hotelier, Musaytir & Blue Finch. We showed a small profit on the day, however out published selection ran second, showing a loss for our PASS members. We don't think that is fair to our members. And if we give out all our bets, then each member can make their own decision as to whether they wish to back them all. If you don't want to take the $1.40 about Hotelier, then don't, the decision will be totally yours. But if you are happy to make small amounts like yesterday, and slowly build your bank balance (which is the only way to make a profit on horse racing) then the opportunity will be there.
So we will start with today and post our two bets for today here on the blog site for all to see.
Mackay R1 No2 Red Meshach
Moonee Valley R7 No7 Anabaa King Prawn
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
The other disturbing feature is that everything we select, seems to come up very, very short odds. Yesterday we withheld what we thought was a good thing from our members, just to test the water and see what odds it would come up. The horse won at Hawkesbury, Musaytir, however was odds on throughout betting ending up paying $2.00 across most TAB's. This only proved that others are thinking like us, and there are not hundreds of people following our selections. Again, no great issue there, we just have to publish the winners we find.
So it becomes a mind game, your grit and determination against your excrutiating desire to find that elusive winner. Who wins, how do we overcome it, and how do we get back on track.
The first thing to examine is our selection strategy. We usually come up with 2-3 bets on a daily basis, we then have a closer look at each race we have a selection in and decide approximately what odds the selection will be. Virtually, we have to choose one horse from 3 or 4 bets per day, and hopefully we find the winner, not the loser. Yesterday for example, we thought Hotelier at Townsville was a living certainty, however it was obvious to us (and most others) that he would 2s on. So we didn't make him a selection. We chose a far more difficult race the last at Ballarat, hoping we would get decent odds about our selection, Blue Finch. We thought there were 2 or 3 other definate hopes in the race, allowing us to obtain reasonable odds about the good thing. Alas, Blue Finch opened odds on, drifted to black figures fleetingly, only to be backed heavily late in betting to start even money. And to put the icing on the cake, Blue Finch was run down in the last stride by Assent to run a narrow second. Exasperatingly frustrating to say the least.
We can do a number of things. First inclination is to make less selections. However what we will find in doing this, is the odds of the horses selected will be very skinny. The reason we show a profit is because we find the odd $4-$7 winner to keep the average winning price at a high level (currently $2.75). Second thoughts are to publish all our selections, including the Hotelier's of this world. We are most uncomfortable with this because tipping 1/2 horses, especially if they get beaten is no rocket science. And of course, the most obvious solution is simply to have more bets. Now this is the solution that most punters would adopt. Losing streak must end eventually if you back more horses, with more chances of finding a winner. However what happens in this case is that you also back more losers, and inevitably lose more money.
What we will do is go back to basics.
What is our goal? Our goal is to show a good profit when punting on thoroughbred horses.
Are we achieving our goal? Yes, however not to our high standards.
What were we doing when achieving our main goals different to what we are doing now? Well, when we first began, we were giving out more than one selection per day, especially on Saturdays. In recent times, we have deliberately restricted our selections to one per day.
Okay, so we will go back to our humble beginnings and start giving out more selections. We will inform our members of all the horses we intend to back every day. For example, we had 3 bets yesterday, Hotelier, Musaytir & Blue Finch. We showed a small profit on the day, however out published selection ran second, showing a loss for our PASS members. We don't think that is fair to our members. And if we give out all our bets, then each member can make their own decision as to whether they wish to back them all. If you don't want to take the $1.40 about Hotelier, then don't, the decision will be totally yours. But if you are happy to make small amounts like yesterday, and slowly build your bank balance (which is the only way to make a profit on horse racing) then the opportunity will be there.
So we will start with today and post our two bets for today here on the blog site for all to see.
Mackay R1 No2 Red Meshach
Moonee Valley R7 No7 Anabaa King Prawn
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Thursday, March 1, 2007
A New Way For Punters To Do Their Doe
Yesterday we gave out what we thought was a good thing at Eagle Farm to our members. The horse was in race 6, named Borsha's Warrior. We knew it would start favourite, but had the credentials to beat his rivals easily. Or so we thought.
Now before we go any further, we have to relate the true story of an event that occurred on 2 June 1998 at Ballarat race course in Victoria. This event, up until yesterday, was the single most amazing way we have ever lost our money on a horse race. On this day, a very classy horse named Victoria Park was racing at Ballarat. He was a Group winner, and multiple Group placegetter, and was in a weak Open Handicap with 59.5kg, less a 3kg claim for apprentice Pat Ferris. At his previous start, Victoria Park had run 2nd at Caulfield, and being back in grade, and actually down in weight, he looked a living certainty. The bookies gave us luxurious odds of $3.50 or 5/2 in those days, which looked overly generous. Now, Ferris, although very inexperienced, had barrier 1 to assist him, and all he had to do that was steer, and Victoria Park puts a bundle into our wallets. As the field jumped, Ferris positioned Victoria Park beautifully, on the fence, directly behind the leaders getting a very easy run. Around the 800m mark, it looked like he had to ease the horse slightly to avoid heels in front, but steadied up well and as the field turned for home, Victoria Park was cruising 2 lengths from the lead. Ferris adeptly found a passage off the fence, strode up to the leaders, and put paid to his opposition in one fell swoop. He charged away to win by over 3 lengths, putting gleeful smiles all over his supporters faces. What a price, he should have been 2s on !!
Anyway, as we all know, it is not over until the fat lady sings, or the jockey weighs in correctly in this case. Ferris came back to scale with saddle and whip in hand and weighed in 2 kg light. This despite weiging out correctly only 15 minutes earlier. Well what transpired I have never seen or heard of, before or since on a race course. At the 800m mark of the race, when we thought the horse got slightly inconvenienced, Victoria Park actually brushed the inside running rail. The saddle bag, carrying the lead weights hit the rail, and some of the lead bags were dislodged from the bag, falling to the turf. And along with the lead bags went our money. So when Ferris got back to scale, he wasn't carrying the correct weight, and therefore Stewards had no choice but to disqualify Victoria Park from all placings. So punters who backed Victoria Park did their money cold, not even a refund. We didn't even get a run for our money.
I didn't think we would do our money in such unusual circumstances ever again. That was until Eagle Farm yesterday.
At around 8:30am, after scratchings and track conditions for all venues were avalaible, we put out Borsha's Warrior as our best bet for the day. We knew it would be favourite, but should have been able to easily account for his rivals. Around mid afternoon, we were checking gear changes for the Bunbury meeting and happened to glance at Eagle Farm. To our astonishment Borsha's Warrior appeared in the gear changes with the word "GELDED" written next to him. Now this sent alarm bells ringing. We checked the date of his last run, 9/2/2007, which gave him only 19 days to recover from this operation. Now, we here at Massie Lodge have had a bit of experience with geldings, in fact we have performed many here. After the operation, which is not stitched, the horse is left in a small yard for around 7 days, so he can walk around comfortably. The bleeding usually takes several days to cease. After 7 days we place the horse in a larger paddock and let him recover fully for another week, then he can return to work if required. There is no way a horse can do proper track work for at least 2 weeks after being gelded, usually 3 weeks. His last run was less than 3 weeks before this run. And it would be hard to imagine he was gelded even the day after his previous run, more likely two days after. This means he only had 16-17 days to recover, and would not have done any serious work in that time.
Now, Borsha's Warrior started long odds on yesterday, around $1.75, meaning we were not the only ones to back him. Hundreds, if not thousands of punters had their hard earned on him. I wonder if they would have backed him had they known about the gelding? Damn sure we would not have.
Borsha's Warrior jumped only fairly and had to work hard early to get up outside the leader. He was still there on the turn, however soon after straightening ti was obvious he had had enough and began to weaken. So would you if you had been gelded less than 3 weeks earlier. Borsha's Warrior finished a creditable 3rd, and on that run, should win in the near future if able to be given a proper preparation up to the race. In fact, we will definately be on him next time he runs around as the effort under the circumstances yesterday was outstanding.
Another new way to do our doe, maybe not quite as bemusing as Victoria Park, but somehting nonetheless that punters must be aware of in the future.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Now before we go any further, we have to relate the true story of an event that occurred on 2 June 1998 at Ballarat race course in Victoria. This event, up until yesterday, was the single most amazing way we have ever lost our money on a horse race. On this day, a very classy horse named Victoria Park was racing at Ballarat. He was a Group winner, and multiple Group placegetter, and was in a weak Open Handicap with 59.5kg, less a 3kg claim for apprentice Pat Ferris. At his previous start, Victoria Park had run 2nd at Caulfield, and being back in grade, and actually down in weight, he looked a living certainty. The bookies gave us luxurious odds of $3.50 or 5/2 in those days, which looked overly generous. Now, Ferris, although very inexperienced, had barrier 1 to assist him, and all he had to do that was steer, and Victoria Park puts a bundle into our wallets. As the field jumped, Ferris positioned Victoria Park beautifully, on the fence, directly behind the leaders getting a very easy run. Around the 800m mark, it looked like he had to ease the horse slightly to avoid heels in front, but steadied up well and as the field turned for home, Victoria Park was cruising 2 lengths from the lead. Ferris adeptly found a passage off the fence, strode up to the leaders, and put paid to his opposition in one fell swoop. He charged away to win by over 3 lengths, putting gleeful smiles all over his supporters faces. What a price, he should have been 2s on !!
Anyway, as we all know, it is not over until the fat lady sings, or the jockey weighs in correctly in this case. Ferris came back to scale with saddle and whip in hand and weighed in 2 kg light. This despite weiging out correctly only 15 minutes earlier. Well what transpired I have never seen or heard of, before or since on a race course. At the 800m mark of the race, when we thought the horse got slightly inconvenienced, Victoria Park actually brushed the inside running rail. The saddle bag, carrying the lead weights hit the rail, and some of the lead bags were dislodged from the bag, falling to the turf. And along with the lead bags went our money. So when Ferris got back to scale, he wasn't carrying the correct weight, and therefore Stewards had no choice but to disqualify Victoria Park from all placings. So punters who backed Victoria Park did their money cold, not even a refund. We didn't even get a run for our money.
I didn't think we would do our money in such unusual circumstances ever again. That was until Eagle Farm yesterday.
At around 8:30am, after scratchings and track conditions for all venues were avalaible, we put out Borsha's Warrior as our best bet for the day. We knew it would be favourite, but should have been able to easily account for his rivals. Around mid afternoon, we were checking gear changes for the Bunbury meeting and happened to glance at Eagle Farm. To our astonishment Borsha's Warrior appeared in the gear changes with the word "GELDED" written next to him. Now this sent alarm bells ringing. We checked the date of his last run, 9/2/2007, which gave him only 19 days to recover from this operation. Now, we here at Massie Lodge have had a bit of experience with geldings, in fact we have performed many here. After the operation, which is not stitched, the horse is left in a small yard for around 7 days, so he can walk around comfortably. The bleeding usually takes several days to cease. After 7 days we place the horse in a larger paddock and let him recover fully for another week, then he can return to work if required. There is no way a horse can do proper track work for at least 2 weeks after being gelded, usually 3 weeks. His last run was less than 3 weeks before this run. And it would be hard to imagine he was gelded even the day after his previous run, more likely two days after. This means he only had 16-17 days to recover, and would not have done any serious work in that time.
Now, Borsha's Warrior started long odds on yesterday, around $1.75, meaning we were not the only ones to back him. Hundreds, if not thousands of punters had their hard earned on him. I wonder if they would have backed him had they known about the gelding? Damn sure we would not have.
Borsha's Warrior jumped only fairly and had to work hard early to get up outside the leader. He was still there on the turn, however soon after straightening ti was obvious he had had enough and began to weaken. So would you if you had been gelded less than 3 weeks earlier. Borsha's Warrior finished a creditable 3rd, and on that run, should win in the near future if able to be given a proper preparation up to the race. In fact, we will definately be on him next time he runs around as the effort under the circumstances yesterday was outstanding.
Another new way to do our doe, maybe not quite as bemusing as Victoria Park, but somehting nonetheless that punters must be aware of in the future.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
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