Wednesday, November 5, 2008
2008 VRC Oaks
VRC Oaks Preview
The third day of the Flemington Spring carnival welcomes all those from the fairer sex with open arms. On the 9 race program no less than 4 are dedicated to fillies and/or mares, there will be fashions on the field, women strutting their stuff across Flemington with gay abandon. Yes, it truly is ladies day.
The Oaks itself brings together 17 3yo fillies, well almost all are actually 3 years old, some won't physically turn 3 for another week or two. They race against each other over 2500m, the distance over which the VRC Derby was run on Saturday, and all are running over that distance for the first time in their lives. Not one has been over a journey any further than 2000m in their short careers, thus they are all jumping at least 500m in their endeavours to the coveted Group 1. Of the 17 acceptors, 5 have never even won one race before, they are maidens, trying to win a Group 1 event. On top of that, there are another 6 fillies who have only won one lifetime race. This is not exceptional, it happens every year, with fillies attempting to win that pinnacle black type so important to breeders, despite the fact they are too young, too inexperienced, and some simply not good enough to ever win at the elite level. Media moguls then become extremely excited every time a former Oaks winner steps out on to the race track, believing their achievements as a 3yo filly takes them to status far above mortal equines. This, it rarely if ever does.
In the 2008 version of the Oaks, we again see an odds on favourite in the shape of the Kris Lees trained Samantha Miss. Now Samantha is no ordinary 3yo filly. She has had 10 starts before her Oaks assignment, winning 6 including two Group 1 events, one against the boys in the Champagne Stakes at Randwick back in April. She has also run 3 placings, including a tremendous effort last start in the Group 1 WFA W S Cox Plate over 2040m at Moonee Valley, beaten only 1.2 lengths by Maldivian. So our girl Samantha is entitled to be around the $1.80 mark for the Oaks, as none of her rivals can boast more than two race victories, let alone two at the highest level. And which of her rivals could we even consider in our wildest dreams could possibly secure a position in the field, let alone run a place as a 3yo filly in a Cox Plate? None, exactly. Samantha Miss deserves favouritism.
Nevertheless, there is always the uncertainty of racing. She is well drawn in barrier 3, regular jockey Hugh Bowman will ride, a welcome return after he could not make the weight in the Cox Plate. He will give her the run of the race in behind the speed, bring her clear in the straight to allow her to let down her devastating final finish. But will she run out the 2500m? She has now had 5 runs in from a spell, including that gut buster at Moonee Valley when everyone thought on the home turn she was just going to unleash and blouse them all. She petered on her run that day, almost losing third place to Zarita. Has she had enough? We will only be able to answer these questions at around 3:05pm Melbourne time. If she runs the 2500m, she still has her zest for racing, and class prevails, she will win, like many other top class 3yo fillies before her. Nevertheless, we won't be taking any tomato sauce odds on offer to find out if the moon and young Samantha are in sync when the Oaks field jumps away.
There should be plenty of pace in the race, Estee has led at her latest two runs, most recently on Saturday in the Wakeful, the traditional lead up to the Oaks, and on both occasions she has fought on tenaciously, with all due respect to the leader biased tracks on which she was running. Roobles & Lunar Lights will also go forward, and with so many racing over the 2500m for the first time, there are sure to be another one or two who pull hard and have to to allowed to run toward the lead. So there will be plenty of pace on, which should suit Samantha Miss. However, this will also suit a few others who will obtain nice runs in the race as well. Miss Scarlatti has unfortunately drawn very badly, and will have to go back from the alley, if she goes forward, that would be tantamount to suicide, however a fast pace will suit and she will be running on at the finish. If she can keep in touch as the field approaches the turn, then will figure in the finish.
Okay, hands up all who saw the run of Kimillsy on Saturday in the Wakeful? You are all very clever cherubs, aren't you. Yes, it was a run to take note of, to write down in that little black book you hide from all others, or even simply make a mental note of and keep repeating to yourself, "back her next time, back her next time." Kimillsy had been a little one paced at her previous two runs, behind Samantha Miss & Gallica, however she rocketed to the line in the Wakeful, and if she repeats that run in the Oaks, she will nearly win.
The Oaks is a race lacking plenty of depth, and whichever filly gets the best run in transit, and then is able to run a strong 2500m, that is the filly who will win. Which filly that will be, we won't know until after the race. There are only a handful of winning chances, however we cannot encourage any one to take odds on about any horse at their first attempt at 2500m. If you insist on betting, take exotics around Samantha Miss, Kimillsy, Estee & Miss Scarlatti. If you insist on having a win bet, then the odds offered about Kimillsy are far more attractive than those being offered for Samantha Miss.
Remember the winning odds for all the Group 1 races so far at Flemington this Spring. Then understand, there are a couple of far better bets on the program, than guessing whether an inexperienced 3yo filly can run out a strong 2500m at their first attempt.
Good luck and profitable punting to all
Spring 2008 - The Year Of The Long Shots
No matter what happens on Oaks day tomorrow at Flemington, or the final day of the 2008 spring carnival on Saturday, this year will have to be remembered as the year punters were sent packing without even the shirt on their backs. The win of Viewed yesterday in the Melbourne Cup at odds of over $40 on all Australian totes, has capped off a spring carnival that will have most punters shaking their heads as to how they are supposed to find these winners. It has been a spring for despised outsiders, winning almost every Group 1 race on offer, with the exception of the Caulfield Guineas some 3 weeks ago.
Let's have a look at the winners of the major races thus far:-
Caulfield Cup - All The Good $41 SP
W S Cox Plate - Maldivian $12 SP
VRC Derby - Rebel Raider $101 SP
Melbourne Cup - Viewed $41 SP
Now, I suppose Maldivian was not what you would call a monstrous outsider winning the Cox Plate. Nevertheless, he was not in the first 5 favourites on the day and started $12 in a field of 12, after a dismal performance in the Caulfield Cup the week prior. What he did Cox Plate day was a form reversal of decent proportions, it must be said.
All The Good was a last start winner at Newmarket by over 3 lengths, so maybe he simply got under Australian punters guard. However Rebel Raider ran a meek 3rd in the Geelong Classic, a race rarely proving a strong form line for the Derby. In fact Rebel Raider was beaten over 3 lengths at Geelong, and was correctly sent out at 100/1 in the Derby. Viewed had had 4 runs back following his Brisbane Cup win on a bog track back in June, beaten soundly at every one of those runs this spring. Certainly, Viewed, Rebel Raider & Maldivian all put in form reversals that fooled most punters on the day. So, punters rightly or as it turned out wrongly, ignored all four of these Group 1 winners. If we go back to the time honoured Turnbull Stakes a month ago, where Weekend Hussler was sent out a long odds on favourite, he duely missed a place, the rot for punters starting way back in early October.
The Caulfield Guineas has turned out to be one of the only major races where form lines stood up and punters got it right, when the Mark Kavanagh trained Whobegotyou was victorious at $1.60, not the most succulent of odds for which punters search. Nevertheless, a winner is a winner this spring and Whobegotyou is almost the only horse to put some money back into punters pockets. Northern Meteor, admittedly started very short priced favourite in the Group 1 Coolmore on Saturday, however it must be said this is not one of the big 6 or 7 races of the spring.
So, why have the majority of the favourites been failing? Why are these long priced horses consistently winning throughout the spring of 2008?
There are several reasons for this. Firstly, most of these beaten favourites have been well under the odds, and most have actually been false favourites. The strength & depth of Australian horses, especially at the top level has evened out so much over the past few years, it doesn't take much to go wrong for the favourite's chances to go awry in a race. Favourites require everything to go their way, as do every other horse in the race for that matter to win the race. Being used up early, sitting a little wide without any cover, taking off too early, horses placed in unsuitable races over unsuitable distances all of these issues will accumulate to get a favourite or any other horse beaten. Horses who win these top class races, generally have everything go their way, receiving a nice easy run with cover, getting clear at the right time, not being used up early, and of course being placed by the trainer in the right race over the right distance. Media hype plays a massive part in making horses false favourites, as we saw with Weekend Hussler & Whobegotyou. Weekend Hussler was a sprinter miler attempting to win staying races in a year that most thought the WFA ranks were down in class. He simply didn't stay. Whobegotyou was jumping 500m in distance in attempting to win the Derby, a fact clearly forgotten by punters carried away with the media hype surrounding the horses chances. At least the winner Rebel Raider only jumped 300m from the Geelong run to the Derby. As for the Melbourne Cup, I don't know how many times I watched a replay of Septimus winning in Ireland at his most recent start before the Cup, winning by a massive 13 lengths. Alas, what every pundit forgot to mention to punters was this victory was on a bog track, and Septimus would be racing on a hard surface come Cup day. And how many times did we see a replay of Mad Rush's excellent 4th in the Caulfield Cup, pundits drooling over it as a great guide to his chances in the Melbourne Cup. What pundits did not tell punters, was that Mad Rush had never won a race beyond 2400m, his best distance, the distance of the Caulfield Cup not the Melbourne Cup, and was a massive query over the 3200m yesterday. The media has plenty to answer for in assisting to make these horses short priced false favourites. If the media is going to push horses, then they should give out all the facts, not just the one's that suit them to make a story.
The other major issue is track bias, which is an alley that Racing Victoria forbid most journalists covering the carnival to walk down. Caulfield over its 3 day carnival in October was a disgrace, with few or no horses making up ground in any race. The committee moved the rain around on all 3 days in an attempt to lure punters into the belief the track was playing fairly, and with the assistance of the media, most punters were duped. Fact is, other than a handful of events, front runners on the fence were advantaged, alas, nothing changed when we arrived at Flemington last Saturday. The only races where horses seem to be able to make ground at Flemington this year is in long distance races. The 1400m & 1600m races around the circuit, horses simply have to be in the first 2 or 3 to have any winning hope, and the straight races are the same.
Another issue is that punters are all becoming sheep. They follow media hype, they look for the obvious form lines because they are what most of the racing media tend to focus on. In yesterday's Melbourne up for example, plenty of media wanted to spruik Bart Cummings chances of winning a 12th Cup. However they focussed on Saturday's Saab winner Moatize, not the Brisbane Cup winner Viewed. Thus, Viewed went out at $41 (gross overs), Moatize $12 (gross unders), and we all know the result. Punters listen to the radio, to the racing stations on television, and follow what is fed to them. They look at form guides in the same way every time they pick one up, not just one punter, but the majority of punters. Therefore, some horses who should be $2.50 in the market come up as $1.50 chances, way under the odds. There was a glaring example of this in the last at Flemington yesterday with favourite Daintree Duke. His true price was around the $2.75 mark, however he had been odds on with bookmakers since acceptances came out on Saturday evening. Why? Because of the massive media hype surrounding him. In the end, he was beaten, albeit unluckily, by Danzylum who sat close to the pace all the way and held on strongly to the finish.
So what will happen in the Oaks tomorrow? How many punters will keenly jump on odds on favourite Samantha Miss after her great 3rd in the W S Cox Plate for tomorrow 3yo fillies classic? Going by what has transpired thus far this spring, plenty will, and once again they will get burnt. Samantha Miss is the class horse of the race, however, like Whobegotyou on Saturday, is jumping 500m from the Plate to the Oaks, and we know what happened to Whobegotyou at his short quote. She is long odds on, and terrible value for any punter to consider backing. Punters have to get smarter, either look for value, or simply don't have a bet. What, I hear you cry! Don't have a bet! Yes, show some discipline, either look for one over the odds, or wait for another race. Don't listen to media hype, especially when 3 or 4 different outlets spruik the same horse, it will be under the odds. Leave it alone, wait for it to fail under the pressure of such support, then jump on at subsequent starts when the odds are right.
The final group 1 of the carnival is run on Saturday over the 1600m at Flemington, however we won't see an odds on pop in that race. So punters should get good value for their money in the race. Nevertheless, the media will hype up one or two who are sure to be well in the market come jump time, as well as being way under their true odds. So punters beware.
The media is a most important factor in the racing industry. It simply would not survive the way it is without the media. However, all facets of the media must take their jobs far more seriously than they do now. All they look for is a story, and when several all jump on the one horse it comes up way under the odds, and generally gets beaten. The media always try to make a hero, a so called champion. Unfortunately they did this with Weekend Hussler & Whobegotyou, as there were no other horses consistently winning this spring. We should all allow the horses to make their own stories, allow the horses on track performances to influence our judgement, maybe then, punters will get back on the right track.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Monday, November 3, 2008
2008 Melbourne Cup
Melbourne Cup day is upon us. Let's hope everyone has an enjoyable and successful day tomorrow. Our thoughts as follows:-
1. Septimus - Comes to Australia with a big reputation and a couple of massive winning margins next to his name, albeit on rain affected surfaces. He is without doubt the class horse of the field, however does have the impost of 58.5kg to carry because of that. The major issue with him other than a dry track is whether he has travelled well, settled in & acclimatised well and eaten up since his arrival. If he has, and there is some rain in Melbourne he will be very hard to beat. Johnny Murtagh is a concern as he has no experience under Australian conditions, there will be plenty of pace on in the Cup and he won't be able to afford the luxury of a wide trip with Septimus. Too many ofs and buts with him, however given his favoured wet track conditions, he would nearly win.
2. Master O'Reilly - Our old favourite who fronts up again this year after what must be said a dismal failure last year. He appeared not to run the trip last year, however his preparation this time has been completely different and his runs at WFA have been very good, especially in the Turnbull here at Flemington. His run in the Caulfield Cup was outstanding, however it must be remembered the 2400m at Caulfield is his pet track & distance winning twice and finishing second twice there in a 5 start career. Last start he got caught at the rear in the Cox Plate off a very slow speed, so the run can be overlooked. In saying that, Princess Coup finished back with him that day and she showed nothing in the MacKinnon on Saturday. He will get a great run from the barrier, so given he will do no work in the run, Vlad Duric should have the opportunity to bring him down the outside with one last crack at the leaders in the straight. On his best, a good each way chance, if he runs like last year, no chance at all.
3. Honolulu - From the same stable as the top weight Septimus & does have acceptable credentials on firm going. However, when he has struck a good track, his form does fall away which is an important factor. The two biggest issues for him will be the barrier (24) combined with the inexperienced jockey Colm O'Donohue who has never ridden here in Australia. The pace of Australian races are completely different to European races, and if O'Donohue does get caught wide in the run, then his race is all but over. We have wondered if trainer Aiden O'Brien actually considers him a winning chance, or if he has brought him over as a pacemaker for Septimus, regrettably, we won't know this until the field has gone 250m. On his best form, he has a chance, however again, not knowing if he has travelled well and settled in is a major concern. Each way hope only, maybe include in exotics, however the stablemate does look a far better proposition.
4. Cest La Guerre - New Zealand Derby winner earlier this year, who was purchased by an Australian syndicate including Lloyd Williams, Simon O'Donnell & John Singleton. At least trainer John Sadler won't have any troubles being paid his monthly bill with names like those in the ownership. Cest La Guerre's best form is on rain affected tracks, he won the Derby on a heavy surface, he simply hasn't recaptured that sort of form since his arrival in Australia. If the track becomes rain affected, then he is in the race up to his ears of he can run the 3200m out strongly. However, on a dry surface, he is an each way hope at best.
5. Nom Du Jeu - AJC Derby runner up back in April, who has really improved since his arrival in Australia this time. His run in the Caulfield Cup from the outside barrier was nothing short of sensational, arguably the best run on the day, and the Caulfield Cup has always been considered the best guide to a runners chances in the Melbourne Cup. If he reproduces that run, he is in this race right up to his ears. His sire Montjeu only throws stayers and his mum, Prized Gem, won a Brisbane Cup for trainer Murray Baker a few years back, so the 3200m should be perfect for him. He has performed on rain affected going if the rains come, is perfectly drawn in barrier 1 to get a good smother, and will be well ridden by ex patriot South African Jeff Lloyd. Plenty to like about Nom Du Jeu, he has an excellent winning chance and must be included in all forms of betting on the race.
6. Yellowstone - When I first glanced at this 5yo entire's form and saw 54.1 next to his name, I thought that was the weight he carried at his most recent start. Alas, it was actually the margin by which Septimus defeated him. Now, despite the track being heavy that day, despite the fact he drops a massive 8kg on that WFA performance, along with the jockey being far too inexperienced in Australian conditions plus we have no idea whether he has travelled and acclimatised, barrier 12 means he will need plenty of luck in running, etc etc etc. No, leave him out.
7. Zipping - Seems to have been around the top for years this 7yo gelding, however on his day, is as good as the local horses can produce for this race. His run in the Turnbull Stakes was excellent, his subsequent run in the Cox Plate coming from a long way back and circling the field was also outstanding. If he can produce a run equivalent to either of those, then he has a realistic winning chance. Regrettably, there are a couple of him, so we have to take him on trust. 7yos have an absolutely woeful record in the Melbourne Cup, he ahs drawn barrier 16, which although it sounds ordinary, that will probably suit him so he can back with cover and run home late. If the real Zipping attends Flemington tomorrow, then he will run a great race. Each way, place, exotic chance only.
8. Mad Rush - Those who saw this English stayer's Caulfield Cup run, were in a mad rush to get on him in the big one. Damian Oliver has a terrific record in the Melbourne Cup, rides Flemington like he was planted there as a youngster instead of a tuft of grass and from barrier 4, one can only see the 5yo entire obtaining the gun run of the race. There are a couple of queries about, especially distance wise compared to the other European horses, as he has not won past 2380m. He has not won on rain affected going, plus he has only won 2 races. How many local Class 2 horses would we ever see line up in a Melbourne Cup? Very few is the answer to that question. So he has to be at his impeccable peak for tomorrow's affair. Can he win? Yes, he is one of the top overseas chances, as long as he can run out the 3200m strongly enough. Definite winning hope, must include in all forms of exotic bets.
9. Ice Chariot - It is commendable indeed that Kevin O'Brien has a runner in the 2008 version of the Cup. As an owner he is terrific for racing, a most likable bloke & enjoys every minute he spends on a race track. There should be more Kevin and Tanith O'Briens in this world. Alas, Ice Chariot would have to start 30 seconds before the rest of the field to have any winning hope. Admittedly, he has qualified, as a Derby winner, however his form is simply not good enough to beat most of his opponents tomorrow. No.
10. Viewed - Bart Cummings is the Cups King, he trains this 5yo entire, and always has his horses cherry ripe for Cup day. Nevertheless, what in goodness's name is this bloke doing in the field? He has shown no form whatsoever this preparation, after winning the 2400m Brisbane Cup in June, on a bog track with an over exaggerated winning margin. Comfortably held at each of his 4 runs this time, he would have to improve dramatically to figure in the finish of this race, or even the Lavazza Long Black run a couple of hours earlier tomorrow. No.
11. Littorio - Following his Turnbull Stakes win a month ago at Flemington, this 4yo gelding firmed dramatically in markets for both big Cups. And so he should have, the win was brilliant coming from a long way back in the field to win comfortably by a length. Unfortunately, his two subsequent runs have been most disappointing, culminating in what has to be said a shocker on Saturday in the Mackinnon. Blinkers go off tomorrow, however this will only relax him more and force him to settle nearer last, and he simply hasn't shown the dash over the longer distances for us to become excited about his chances. Littorio is one we are happy to risk and not include in any form of betting.
12. Bauer - This 6yo entire has followed in the footsteps of 2002 Cup victor Media Puzzle by winning the Geelong Cup to qualify for tomorrow's race. He sat wide that day, albeit with cover, and held his opponents safely in the run to the line. A better run in the race that day was put in by Light Vision who subsequently ran a magnificent second in the Saab on Saturday, being run down in the last bound by Moatize. Light Vision should have beaten Bauer that day, he wills struggle to win the Melbourne Cup. Not to mention the fact that Damian Oliver who rode Bauer to victory at Geelong, is riding Mad Rush in the Cup. No, we can safely rule out Bauer as a wining hope, and an exotic chance as well.
13. Boundless - We all love Steven & Trevor McKee for their feats with Sunline, who will ever forget her. Steven kindly autographed a photo of Sunline for us at Royal Randwick one day, a nicer bloke you could not meet. And he has indeed qualified this 4yo mare for the Melbourne Cup and she is entitled to have her opportunity. The fact is her form is woeful, she has no winning hope, nor even a remote place chance unless she puts a form reversal of dynamic proportions, and half the field breaks down, and we don't wish that upon any horse in the race. No.
14. Gallopin - Big things were expected of this 5yogelding this spring, however he ahs taken some time to warm to his task. Last start he won the Moonee Valley Cup over 2600m, unfortunately for Gallopin, form out of this race almost never stands up in the Melbourne Cup. Prior to that, he beaten easily by Newport in the Metropolitan handicap at Randwick, the form of this race is also not what it used to be. It is very difficult to see him figuring any where near the place getters tomorrow. No.
15. Guyno - This 5yo gelding calls Western Australia his home and indeed ti is terrific to see a representative from Sandgroper territory. Nevertheless, with all due respect to owners & trainers, what is he doing in the field. The only purpose he will serve is to get in the way of serious winning chances. No.
16. Zarita - Duel Oaks winning filly last season against inferior opposition who has taken time to reach her peak for this. From barrier 1 last start in the Cox Plate, she ran an even race to finish 4th only beaten a length and a half. She will have to get a perfect trail from barrier 7 to be any chance tomorrow, left for one last run at the leaders, however she couldn't finish off at Moonee Valley, doubt she can finish off any better in the Cup. Happy to leave her out.
17. Newport - It was not long ago that Metropolitan Handicap winners were all hailed as serious winning chances in the Melbourne Cup. In fact, Newport not only won the Metrop this year, he also annexed the 2400m Brisbane Cup last year, so he has creditable form to recommend him. The issue with him is whether he can run out the strong 3200m required to be victorious on Cup day, which I suppose is a genuine query about most runners tomorrow. Newport is trained by the very astute Paul Perry, who always comes to Melbourne in the spring with serious winning chances only. Newport has a bolters hope in this years Cup, especially if some of the overseas horses are not on their metal. Include in all exotics, definite place hope.
18. Profound Beauty - Following his victory with Vintage Crop in 1993, Dermot Weld has made his life's ambition to win every version of the Melbourne Cup. He succeeded in 2002 with Media Puzzle, and he returns every year with another contender, a 5yo mare of all things. There has been a bit of money in the past few days to say she can run a good race however, her last start 3rd at Leopardstown tells us she will struggle in the Cup. The two horses who beat her on the heavy track that day, were beaten pointlessly by Septimus at their previous outing. Yes, she does drop a massive 7.5kg tomorrow, nevertheless she will have to improve, or Septimus retard for her to be a winning chance. Happy to leave her out completely as mares (with one obvious exception in Makybe Diva) have dreadful records in the Melbourne Cup, also plenty of other queries about her including her Danehill breeding and ability to get the journey strongly. No.
19. Red Lord - Have to be blunt here, he is very fortunate to even be in the field. His form is simply not good enough to win a Melbourne Cup, or even threaten to run a place. Easy fold, leave him out, he should be there tomorrow.
20. Varevees - Why did the owners spend their money bringing a 6yo mare to Australia? Party time, maybe, that can be the only answer, unless of course the VRC foots the bill. Her form is woeful against less thans erious opposition, she has drawn 23, the only positive for her is jockey Craig WIlliams, and not even his magic can get her home in the first 15. No.
21. Prize Lady - Again, we have to be blunt, why is this 7yo mare even in the race? She has been beaten over 16 lengths cumulatively at her last 3 runs in far inferior grade to what she meets tomorrow. No.
22. Allesandro Volta - 4yo entire who should have a name change to Absolute Bolter. Beaten no less than 35 lengths at his last run, over 15 lengths cumulatively at his previous two runs, again, why is he here? Maybe as a pacemaker, don't know, don't care, cannot win, cannot place. No.
23. Barbaricus - Twelve days ago when we wrote the Caulfield Cup preview, we said this bloke should not be in the field. How wrong we were. He ran the race of his life at Caulfield, sitting wide early, going to the lead, then fighting on like a cut snake in the straight to run a magnificent 3rd. He then came out on Saturday in the WFA MAckinnon Stakes, jumping a massive 6.5kg again shoots away with a good break only to be run down in the last stride by Thesio. He drops 8kg on that run, he is in the Cup as much as any other horse in the race. Stephen Baster will give the gun run from barrier 3, he will be in front at the 200m mark, only time will tell if he can hang on. Serious winning chance, definite place chance, include in all exotics.
24. Moatize - 8 weeks ago, this 4yo was a maiden, a horse who had not won a race. Going into the Cup tomorrow, he can only boast two victories, the most recent in the Saab on Saturday which secured his place in the field. He is trained by Bart Cummings so has to be respected. However he received 4kg from Light Vision on Saturday, was only able to run him down in the final bound, prior to that he was beaten well by Bauer at Geelong who sat wide the whole way. Never doubt Bart's magic when it comes to the Melbourne Cup, however we cannot have Moatize in any way shape or form.
How will the race be run? As always, plenty of pace, horses coming over from the outside barriers trying to obtain a good position will make for a fast pace. Even if this doesn't occur, some horses will pull hard off a slow speed and jockeys will be forced to take them toward the lead. As always, whoever obtains the easiest run in transit, with cover, without doing any hard work, and then gains clear running in the early part of the straight will win. As long as they are able to run out the 3200m strongly.
The serious winning chances are Nom Du Jeu, Barbaricus, Septimus, MadRush, Zipping & Master O'Reilly. Definite place & exotic chances to Cest La Guerre, Honolulu, & Newport.
Dry track selections:-
1 Nom De Jeu 2 Barabaricus 3 Septimus 4 Zipping
Rain affected track selections:-
1 Nom De Jue 2 Septimus 3 Cest La Guerre 4 Newport
Best of luck to everyone punting on the Cup tomorrow. Always remember, a horse in the market (under $20) will win, and there will always be a long shot (over $33) run a place.
1. Septimus - Comes to Australia with a big reputation and a couple of massive winning margins next to his name, albeit on rain affected surfaces. He is without doubt the class horse of the field, however does have the impost of 58.5kg to carry because of that. The major issue with him other than a dry track is whether he has travelled well, settled in & acclimatised well and eaten up since his arrival. If he has, and there is some rain in Melbourne he will be very hard to beat. Johnny Murtagh is a concern as he has no experience under Australian conditions, there will be plenty of pace on in the Cup and he won't be able to afford the luxury of a wide trip with Septimus. Too many ofs and buts with him, however given his favoured wet track conditions, he would nearly win.
2. Master O'Reilly - Our old favourite who fronts up again this year after what must be said a dismal failure last year. He appeared not to run the trip last year, however his preparation this time has been completely different and his runs at WFA have been very good, especially in the Turnbull here at Flemington. His run in the Caulfield Cup was outstanding, however it must be remembered the 2400m at Caulfield is his pet track & distance winning twice and finishing second twice there in a 5 start career. Last start he got caught at the rear in the Cox Plate off a very slow speed, so the run can be overlooked. In saying that, Princess Coup finished back with him that day and she showed nothing in the MacKinnon on Saturday. He will get a great run from the barrier, so given he will do no work in the run, Vlad Duric should have the opportunity to bring him down the outside with one last crack at the leaders in the straight. On his best, a good each way chance, if he runs like last year, no chance at all.
3. Honolulu - From the same stable as the top weight Septimus & does have acceptable credentials on firm going. However, when he has struck a good track, his form does fall away which is an important factor. The two biggest issues for him will be the barrier (24) combined with the inexperienced jockey Colm O'Donohue who has never ridden here in Australia. The pace of Australian races are completely different to European races, and if O'Donohue does get caught wide in the run, then his race is all but over. We have wondered if trainer Aiden O'Brien actually considers him a winning chance, or if he has brought him over as a pacemaker for Septimus, regrettably, we won't know this until the field has gone 250m. On his best form, he has a chance, however again, not knowing if he has travelled well and settled in is a major concern. Each way hope only, maybe include in exotics, however the stablemate does look a far better proposition.
4. Cest La Guerre - New Zealand Derby winner earlier this year, who was purchased by an Australian syndicate including Lloyd Williams, Simon O'Donnell & John Singleton. At least trainer John Sadler won't have any troubles being paid his monthly bill with names like those in the ownership. Cest La Guerre's best form is on rain affected tracks, he won the Derby on a heavy surface, he simply hasn't recaptured that sort of form since his arrival in Australia. If the track becomes rain affected, then he is in the race up to his ears of he can run the 3200m out strongly. However, on a dry surface, he is an each way hope at best.
5. Nom Du Jeu - AJC Derby runner up back in April, who has really improved since his arrival in Australia this time. His run in the Caulfield Cup from the outside barrier was nothing short of sensational, arguably the best run on the day, and the Caulfield Cup has always been considered the best guide to a runners chances in the Melbourne Cup. If he reproduces that run, he is in this race right up to his ears. His sire Montjeu only throws stayers and his mum, Prized Gem, won a Brisbane Cup for trainer Murray Baker a few years back, so the 3200m should be perfect for him. He has performed on rain affected going if the rains come, is perfectly drawn in barrier 1 to get a good smother, and will be well ridden by ex patriot South African Jeff Lloyd. Plenty to like about Nom Du Jeu, he has an excellent winning chance and must be included in all forms of betting on the race.
6. Yellowstone - When I first glanced at this 5yo entire's form and saw 54.1 next to his name, I thought that was the weight he carried at his most recent start. Alas, it was actually the margin by which Septimus defeated him. Now, despite the track being heavy that day, despite the fact he drops a massive 8kg on that WFA performance, along with the jockey being far too inexperienced in Australian conditions plus we have no idea whether he has travelled and acclimatised, barrier 12 means he will need plenty of luck in running, etc etc etc. No, leave him out.
7. Zipping - Seems to have been around the top for years this 7yo gelding, however on his day, is as good as the local horses can produce for this race. His run in the Turnbull Stakes was excellent, his subsequent run in the Cox Plate coming from a long way back and circling the field was also outstanding. If he can produce a run equivalent to either of those, then he has a realistic winning chance. Regrettably, there are a couple of him, so we have to take him on trust. 7yos have an absolutely woeful record in the Melbourne Cup, he ahs drawn barrier 16, which although it sounds ordinary, that will probably suit him so he can back with cover and run home late. If the real Zipping attends Flemington tomorrow, then he will run a great race. Each way, place, exotic chance only.
8. Mad Rush - Those who saw this English stayer's Caulfield Cup run, were in a mad rush to get on him in the big one. Damian Oliver has a terrific record in the Melbourne Cup, rides Flemington like he was planted there as a youngster instead of a tuft of grass and from barrier 4, one can only see the 5yo entire obtaining the gun run of the race. There are a couple of queries about, especially distance wise compared to the other European horses, as he has not won past 2380m. He has not won on rain affected going, plus he has only won 2 races. How many local Class 2 horses would we ever see line up in a Melbourne Cup? Very few is the answer to that question. So he has to be at his impeccable peak for tomorrow's affair. Can he win? Yes, he is one of the top overseas chances, as long as he can run out the 3200m strongly enough. Definite winning hope, must include in all forms of exotic bets.
9. Ice Chariot - It is commendable indeed that Kevin O'Brien has a runner in the 2008 version of the Cup. As an owner he is terrific for racing, a most likable bloke & enjoys every minute he spends on a race track. There should be more Kevin and Tanith O'Briens in this world. Alas, Ice Chariot would have to start 30 seconds before the rest of the field to have any winning hope. Admittedly, he has qualified, as a Derby winner, however his form is simply not good enough to beat most of his opponents tomorrow. No.
10. Viewed - Bart Cummings is the Cups King, he trains this 5yo entire, and always has his horses cherry ripe for Cup day. Nevertheless, what in goodness's name is this bloke doing in the field? He has shown no form whatsoever this preparation, after winning the 2400m Brisbane Cup in June, on a bog track with an over exaggerated winning margin. Comfortably held at each of his 4 runs this time, he would have to improve dramatically to figure in the finish of this race, or even the Lavazza Long Black run a couple of hours earlier tomorrow. No.
11. Littorio - Following his Turnbull Stakes win a month ago at Flemington, this 4yo gelding firmed dramatically in markets for both big Cups. And so he should have, the win was brilliant coming from a long way back in the field to win comfortably by a length. Unfortunately, his two subsequent runs have been most disappointing, culminating in what has to be said a shocker on Saturday in the Mackinnon. Blinkers go off tomorrow, however this will only relax him more and force him to settle nearer last, and he simply hasn't shown the dash over the longer distances for us to become excited about his chances. Littorio is one we are happy to risk and not include in any form of betting.
12. Bauer - This 6yo entire has followed in the footsteps of 2002 Cup victor Media Puzzle by winning the Geelong Cup to qualify for tomorrow's race. He sat wide that day, albeit with cover, and held his opponents safely in the run to the line. A better run in the race that day was put in by Light Vision who subsequently ran a magnificent second in the Saab on Saturday, being run down in the last bound by Moatize. Light Vision should have beaten Bauer that day, he wills struggle to win the Melbourne Cup. Not to mention the fact that Damian Oliver who rode Bauer to victory at Geelong, is riding Mad Rush in the Cup. No, we can safely rule out Bauer as a wining hope, and an exotic chance as well.
13. Boundless - We all love Steven & Trevor McKee for their feats with Sunline, who will ever forget her. Steven kindly autographed a photo of Sunline for us at Royal Randwick one day, a nicer bloke you could not meet. And he has indeed qualified this 4yo mare for the Melbourne Cup and she is entitled to have her opportunity. The fact is her form is woeful, she has no winning hope, nor even a remote place chance unless she puts a form reversal of dynamic proportions, and half the field breaks down, and we don't wish that upon any horse in the race. No.
14. Gallopin - Big things were expected of this 5yogelding this spring, however he ahs taken some time to warm to his task. Last start he won the Moonee Valley Cup over 2600m, unfortunately for Gallopin, form out of this race almost never stands up in the Melbourne Cup. Prior to that, he beaten easily by Newport in the Metropolitan handicap at Randwick, the form of this race is also not what it used to be. It is very difficult to see him figuring any where near the place getters tomorrow. No.
15. Guyno - This 5yo gelding calls Western Australia his home and indeed ti is terrific to see a representative from Sandgroper territory. Nevertheless, with all due respect to owners & trainers, what is he doing in the field. The only purpose he will serve is to get in the way of serious winning chances. No.
16. Zarita - Duel Oaks winning filly last season against inferior opposition who has taken time to reach her peak for this. From barrier 1 last start in the Cox Plate, she ran an even race to finish 4th only beaten a length and a half. She will have to get a perfect trail from barrier 7 to be any chance tomorrow, left for one last run at the leaders, however she couldn't finish off at Moonee Valley, doubt she can finish off any better in the Cup. Happy to leave her out.
17. Newport - It was not long ago that Metropolitan Handicap winners were all hailed as serious winning chances in the Melbourne Cup. In fact, Newport not only won the Metrop this year, he also annexed the 2400m Brisbane Cup last year, so he has creditable form to recommend him. The issue with him is whether he can run out the strong 3200m required to be victorious on Cup day, which I suppose is a genuine query about most runners tomorrow. Newport is trained by the very astute Paul Perry, who always comes to Melbourne in the spring with serious winning chances only. Newport has a bolters hope in this years Cup, especially if some of the overseas horses are not on their metal. Include in all exotics, definite place hope.
18. Profound Beauty - Following his victory with Vintage Crop in 1993, Dermot Weld has made his life's ambition to win every version of the Melbourne Cup. He succeeded in 2002 with Media Puzzle, and he returns every year with another contender, a 5yo mare of all things. There has been a bit of money in the past few days to say she can run a good race however, her last start 3rd at Leopardstown tells us she will struggle in the Cup. The two horses who beat her on the heavy track that day, were beaten pointlessly by Septimus at their previous outing. Yes, she does drop a massive 7.5kg tomorrow, nevertheless she will have to improve, or Septimus retard for her to be a winning chance. Happy to leave her out completely as mares (with one obvious exception in Makybe Diva) have dreadful records in the Melbourne Cup, also plenty of other queries about her including her Danehill breeding and ability to get the journey strongly. No.
19. Red Lord - Have to be blunt here, he is very fortunate to even be in the field. His form is simply not good enough to win a Melbourne Cup, or even threaten to run a place. Easy fold, leave him out, he should be there tomorrow.
20. Varevees - Why did the owners spend their money bringing a 6yo mare to Australia? Party time, maybe, that can be the only answer, unless of course the VRC foots the bill. Her form is woeful against less thans erious opposition, she has drawn 23, the only positive for her is jockey Craig WIlliams, and not even his magic can get her home in the first 15. No.
21. Prize Lady - Again, we have to be blunt, why is this 7yo mare even in the race? She has been beaten over 16 lengths cumulatively at her last 3 runs in far inferior grade to what she meets tomorrow. No.
22. Allesandro Volta - 4yo entire who should have a name change to Absolute Bolter. Beaten no less than 35 lengths at his last run, over 15 lengths cumulatively at his previous two runs, again, why is he here? Maybe as a pacemaker, don't know, don't care, cannot win, cannot place. No.
23. Barbaricus - Twelve days ago when we wrote the Caulfield Cup preview, we said this bloke should not be in the field. How wrong we were. He ran the race of his life at Caulfield, sitting wide early, going to the lead, then fighting on like a cut snake in the straight to run a magnificent 3rd. He then came out on Saturday in the WFA MAckinnon Stakes, jumping a massive 6.5kg again shoots away with a good break only to be run down in the last stride by Thesio. He drops 8kg on that run, he is in the Cup as much as any other horse in the race. Stephen Baster will give the gun run from barrier 3, he will be in front at the 200m mark, only time will tell if he can hang on. Serious winning chance, definite place chance, include in all exotics.
24. Moatize - 8 weeks ago, this 4yo was a maiden, a horse who had not won a race. Going into the Cup tomorrow, he can only boast two victories, the most recent in the Saab on Saturday which secured his place in the field. He is trained by Bart Cummings so has to be respected. However he received 4kg from Light Vision on Saturday, was only able to run him down in the final bound, prior to that he was beaten well by Bauer at Geelong who sat wide the whole way. Never doubt Bart's magic when it comes to the Melbourne Cup, however we cannot have Moatize in any way shape or form.
How will the race be run? As always, plenty of pace, horses coming over from the outside barriers trying to obtain a good position will make for a fast pace. Even if this doesn't occur, some horses will pull hard off a slow speed and jockeys will be forced to take them toward the lead. As always, whoever obtains the easiest run in transit, with cover, without doing any hard work, and then gains clear running in the early part of the straight will win. As long as they are able to run out the 3200m strongly.
The serious winning chances are Nom Du Jeu, Barbaricus, Septimus, MadRush, Zipping & Master O'Reilly. Definite place & exotic chances to Cest La Guerre, Honolulu, & Newport.
Dry track selections:-
1 Nom De Jeu 2 Barabaricus 3 Septimus 4 Zipping
Rain affected track selections:-
1 Nom De Jue 2 Septimus 3 Cest La Guerre 4 Newport
Best of luck to everyone punting on the Cup tomorrow. Always remember, a horse in the market (under $20) will win, and there will always be a long shot (over $33) run a place.
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