Hindsight is a great medium, makes know it alls out of anyone who cares to use it. Nevertheless, hindsight can and should be used by all punters who want to be successful at their craft.
Let's take the Cox Plate run on Saturday, won by Colin Little's great middle distance horse, El Segundo. The son of Pins won "Australia's Middle Distance Championship" comfortably after being given a terrific run in transit by Luke Nolen, giving nothing else a chance in the straight. Now, before going any further, we did not bet in the race, so there is no talking from our kick happening here. We selected Haradasun in our emails to clients on Saturday, although urged caution to those wanting to bet on the race as it certainly appeared a tricky affair. The only thing that was going to beat Haradasun on Saturday was the jockey, and prophetically that is exactly what happened. Haradasun was butchered by a jockey who should have had more nouse, especially after riding 4 winners earlier in the day. Hindsight tells us our prediction was correct, the jockey lost the race for Haradasun.
El Segundo had put in an absolute shocker at his previous run in the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington, beaten over 5 lengths that day by Devil Moon and Haradasun. At his start prior to that effort, he never looked like being beaten in the Feehan Stakes at Moonee Valley, narrowly conquering Haradasun that day. We went back through both horses form very closely on Friday night, although believing El Segundo's last run was too bad to be true, and the fact that he can put in a bad one now and then, improving quickly at subsequent starts. However what did not jump out and hit us in the face were the venues of these successes and failures. At his last start last preparation, El Segundo finished 4th in the Australian Cup at Flemington beaten over 6 lengths, remember, the venue for his Turnbull Stakes failure. And go back even further to this time last year, El Segundo went within a whisker of winning the Cox Plate, after putting in a poor run in the Caulfield Stakes. El Segundo has had 3 runs at Flemington, for no wins. He has had 7 starts at Moonee Valley now, for 4 wins a second and a third, his only unplaced run came behind Lad Of The Manor & Makybe Diva in the Feehan Stakes of 2005. His third was first up over an unsuitable 1200m carrying 62.5kg. What does this tell us? El Segundo loves Moonee Valley, always has, whether it be the softer surface or the tight turning course, he thrives there. Obviously, he dislikes Flemington. So there you go, hindsight tells us El Segundo grows an extra leg at Moonee Valley, however should not be backed with countefeit money at Flemington. We should all make note of that for his future preparations.
Anyway, congratulations to Colin Little and Luke Nolen, two nice guys of racing who both deserved their victory in the Cox Plate.
As for PASS members, one winner from two selections on Saturday, with our stable horse El Presidente making up for his previous defeat by winning the last at Ascot on Saturday with ease. He is on a Railway Stakes trail and should be competitive in whatever he runs in this campaign. A Group 2 or 3 race is certainly within his grasp given reasonable barrier draws.
Biggest racing week of the year is approaching, we have our tails up here at present, so we expect plenty more winners to come over the Spring. We have received a few emails from prospective clients, however some have not placed correct contact details on these emails so we have not been able to reply. If you contact us, please include current operative email address or contact phone number so we can repsond speedily.
If you would like details please contact us here profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Monday, October 29, 2007
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Geelong Cup Day
Spring time is the most exciting time of the year for punters and all those interested in horse racing. Yesterday we saw the running of the Geelong Cup which in some years has provided a good guide to a race held on the first Tuesday in November. There were many Melbourne Cup hopefuls attempting to win at Geelong to gain entry into the big one, however David Hayes and Craig Williams again proved they were too strong when The Fuzz won narrowly but convincingly in the 2400m event. The Anthony Cummings trained Zavite fought strongly in the straight, however found the winner a little too good in the final 100m. Both horses deserve a chance to line up in the Melbourne Cup, however Zavite will have to win the Hotham Handicap to ensure hinself a start.
Whilst on the Melbourne Cup, it never ceases to amaze me how arrogant some of the overseas trainers are regarding their charges who are imported for the Cup. Some only enter quarantine for the minimum amount of time required (2 weeks) with the horses arriving a fortnight prior to the running of the Cup. Do these trainers honestly belive their horses will acclimatise in two weeks? Do they honestly believe their horses will regain the weight lost on the flight to Australia in two weeks? And do they honestly believe they can recover their horses fitness to win a 3200m race in only two weeks? This is why most overseas horses fail miserably in the Melbourne Cup, beacuse they are not given enough time to get used to their new surrounding and recover sufficiently from the ordeal of the flight to Australia. All horses lose weight and condition on a long areoplane flight, and take anywhere up to a month to recover fully, depending on their fitness and resiliance.
The overseas horses who have succeeded in Australia are those given plenty of time to settle down, with most having had a run here before the big one. Both the Japanese horses who quinellad the Cup last year ran in the Caulfield Cup first. Media Puzzle who won the Cup in 2002 won the Geelong Cup prior to running on the first Tuesday in November. The only horses who won the Cup and did not run beforehand was Vintage Crop, however he was brought to Australia by Dermot Weld a month before race day and was given plenty of time to acclimatise.
So, when looking for an overseas horse for 2007 Melbourne Cup, look for one who has been prepared on Australian soil for the longest possible time, not one who arrogantly flew in on Tuesday barely two weeks before the big one.
PASS members have been treated to two specials already this week, both saluting the judge first. North Alert won easily at Mt Isa on Tuesday while Sound Journey won comfortable at Geelong yesterday filling our members pockets with plenty of cash. Sound Journey will win a nice 3yo race over the Flemington carnival, possibly the Carbine Club on Derby Day or even the Sandown Guineas. Another nice winner for PASS members yesterday was Moreton Bay, who will make a Cups horse this time next year.
PASS members have been told of a good thing at Mackay this afternoon. If you would like to become a member please contact us here at profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Whilst on the Melbourne Cup, it never ceases to amaze me how arrogant some of the overseas trainers are regarding their charges who are imported for the Cup. Some only enter quarantine for the minimum amount of time required (2 weeks) with the horses arriving a fortnight prior to the running of the Cup. Do these trainers honestly belive their horses will acclimatise in two weeks? Do they honestly believe their horses will regain the weight lost on the flight to Australia in two weeks? And do they honestly believe they can recover their horses fitness to win a 3200m race in only two weeks? This is why most overseas horses fail miserably in the Melbourne Cup, beacuse they are not given enough time to get used to their new surrounding and recover sufficiently from the ordeal of the flight to Australia. All horses lose weight and condition on a long areoplane flight, and take anywhere up to a month to recover fully, depending on their fitness and resiliance.
The overseas horses who have succeeded in Australia are those given plenty of time to settle down, with most having had a run here before the big one. Both the Japanese horses who quinellad the Cup last year ran in the Caulfield Cup first. Media Puzzle who won the Cup in 2002 won the Geelong Cup prior to running on the first Tuesday in November. The only horses who won the Cup and did not run beforehand was Vintage Crop, however he was brought to Australia by Dermot Weld a month before race day and was given plenty of time to acclimatise.
So, when looking for an overseas horse for 2007 Melbourne Cup, look for one who has been prepared on Australian soil for the longest possible time, not one who arrogantly flew in on Tuesday barely two weeks before the big one.
PASS members have been treated to two specials already this week, both saluting the judge first. North Alert won easily at Mt Isa on Tuesday while Sound Journey won comfortable at Geelong yesterday filling our members pockets with plenty of cash. Sound Journey will win a nice 3yo race over the Flemington carnival, possibly the Carbine Club on Derby Day or even the Sandown Guineas. Another nice winner for PASS members yesterday was Moreton Bay, who will make a Cups horse this time next year.
PASS members have been told of a good thing at Mackay this afternoon. If you would like to become a member please contact us here at profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Sunday, October 21, 2007
Caulfield Cup Day
What an absolutely dramatic day Caulfield Cup day turned out to be yesterday. Never before have we seen such happenings minutes prior to a major group 1 race, with the shortest priced favourite in recent times and the second favourite both being scratched at the barrier. You have to feel for the connections of both horses, especially Mark Kavanagh who trained the favourite Maldivian. Michael Rodd who rode Maldivian to the gates yesterday showed his disappointment after Maldivian struck his head on the side of the starting gates, blood streaming down the neck of the equine, by slamming his cap and whip to the turf. Michael knew his Caulfield Cup dream was over for another year.
Maldivian has been a barrier rogue from day 1 and not even a two week holiday to a special barrier educator could assist him prior to his first race start. He refused to go into the barrier on that day at Flemington and was a late scratching at the barrier. However patience and persistence worked well for trainer Mark Kavanagh and his behaviour has been exemplary ever since. Nevertheless, yesterday all his bad habits came back to haunt him with Maldivian tragically paying the ultimate price, scratching at the barriers as a 6/4 favourite for the Caulfield Cup. One must feel for Mark Kavanagh who is genuinely one of the nice blokes of racing and deserves every success that comes his way. Mark did not deserve what happened to Maldivian yesterday, hopefully his luck will improve this week as he prepares Divine Madonna and Devil Moon for the W S Cox Plate. Good luck, Mark.
Tragedy for Maldivian turned into the ultimate triumph for Master O'Reilly and his connections. The Zabeel 5yo gelding had been trained to perfection by Danny O'Brien set for this race and the Melbourne Cup for over 12 months now and by way of a magnificent ride by Vlad Duric he finished far too strongly for his rivals. Nothing that ran around at Caulfield yesterday will beat Master O'Reilly on the first Tuesday in November. Would Maldivian have been able to beat Master O'Reilly? The answer to that question we will never know, however given the dominance of the victory, it would be hard to imagine Maldivian could have staved off such a devastating finishing burst.
PASS members were told 12 months ago that Master O'Reilly would win a Group 1 race. We have been on Master O'Reilly at every one of his 5 starts this preparation providing 3 victories culminating in the Caulfield Cup yesterday. A real shame the late scratchings affected the winning dividends so severely as the $12 would have been very sweet indeed. Nevertheless, the $5.60 was acceptable, far better available for those who took fixed odds during the lead up to the race.
There has been some irate punters who lost their money on both Eskimo Queen and Maldivian due to their scratchings at the barrier yesterday, after they took fixed odds before the final field and barrier draw was announced. The rules state that any bet placed prior to the final field being announced is declared an "all-in" bet and there are no refunds for scratchings. So you lose your money if the horse does not start. Only bets placed after the final field declarations are applicable to refunds. Those who place all-in bets, as early as 3 months ago, know full well they do not get a refund if their horse does not start in the race, so they bet with their eyes wide open, and generally obtain better odds as a consequence. In our opinion anyone who takes on these types of bets deserve to lose. How can anyone possibly believe they can predict who will win a race 2,3 or 4 months in advance? How can they predict if their horse will even start in the race? They do not even know who is in the field, what horses they are up against, what barriers each horse has drawn, and have no idea on ambient weather and track conditions on the day. Placing any all-in bet is fraught with danger and is not a recommended form of punting. In fact it is really not punting, it is a gamble of the highest extreme, akin to sticking a pin into the form guide with a blind fold on to select a winner. The best of luck to all of those who risk hard earned money on these types of bets, they are on a hiding to nothing.
Another great week for members here at PASS. Not only was Master O'Reilly selected exclusively yesterday, we snagged the quinella & trifecta in 5 selections. 4 out of our last 5 specials have saluted so we are certainly in form at the right time of the year.
If you would like to keep informed of all the happenings at PASS please contact us profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Maldivian has been a barrier rogue from day 1 and not even a two week holiday to a special barrier educator could assist him prior to his first race start. He refused to go into the barrier on that day at Flemington and was a late scratching at the barrier. However patience and persistence worked well for trainer Mark Kavanagh and his behaviour has been exemplary ever since. Nevertheless, yesterday all his bad habits came back to haunt him with Maldivian tragically paying the ultimate price, scratching at the barriers as a 6/4 favourite for the Caulfield Cup. One must feel for Mark Kavanagh who is genuinely one of the nice blokes of racing and deserves every success that comes his way. Mark did not deserve what happened to Maldivian yesterday, hopefully his luck will improve this week as he prepares Divine Madonna and Devil Moon for the W S Cox Plate. Good luck, Mark.
Tragedy for Maldivian turned into the ultimate triumph for Master O'Reilly and his connections. The Zabeel 5yo gelding had been trained to perfection by Danny O'Brien set for this race and the Melbourne Cup for over 12 months now and by way of a magnificent ride by Vlad Duric he finished far too strongly for his rivals. Nothing that ran around at Caulfield yesterday will beat Master O'Reilly on the first Tuesday in November. Would Maldivian have been able to beat Master O'Reilly? The answer to that question we will never know, however given the dominance of the victory, it would be hard to imagine Maldivian could have staved off such a devastating finishing burst.
PASS members were told 12 months ago that Master O'Reilly would win a Group 1 race. We have been on Master O'Reilly at every one of his 5 starts this preparation providing 3 victories culminating in the Caulfield Cup yesterday. A real shame the late scratchings affected the winning dividends so severely as the $12 would have been very sweet indeed. Nevertheless, the $5.60 was acceptable, far better available for those who took fixed odds during the lead up to the race.
There has been some irate punters who lost their money on both Eskimo Queen and Maldivian due to their scratchings at the barrier yesterday, after they took fixed odds before the final field and barrier draw was announced. The rules state that any bet placed prior to the final field being announced is declared an "all-in" bet and there are no refunds for scratchings. So you lose your money if the horse does not start. Only bets placed after the final field declarations are applicable to refunds. Those who place all-in bets, as early as 3 months ago, know full well they do not get a refund if their horse does not start in the race, so they bet with their eyes wide open, and generally obtain better odds as a consequence. In our opinion anyone who takes on these types of bets deserve to lose. How can anyone possibly believe they can predict who will win a race 2,3 or 4 months in advance? How can they predict if their horse will even start in the race? They do not even know who is in the field, what horses they are up against, what barriers each horse has drawn, and have no idea on ambient weather and track conditions on the day. Placing any all-in bet is fraught with danger and is not a recommended form of punting. In fact it is really not punting, it is a gamble of the highest extreme, akin to sticking a pin into the form guide with a blind fold on to select a winner. The best of luck to all of those who risk hard earned money on these types of bets, they are on a hiding to nothing.
Another great week for members here at PASS. Not only was Master O'Reilly selected exclusively yesterday, we snagged the quinella & trifecta in 5 selections. 4 out of our last 5 specials have saluted so we are certainly in form at the right time of the year.
If you would like to keep informed of all the happenings at PASS please contact us profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Monday, October 15, 2007
Caulfield Guineas Day
What a terrific days racing at Caulfield on Saturday. Despite the non appearance of most NSW and Queensland horses all races were very competitive and it hard to see any northern horse making too much difference to any of the results. The track played perfectly, every horse appeared to have their chance with little or no bias to inside or outside which is exactly what every punters wants on big race days.
PASS members were treated to a day out with 3 winners from only 4 selections on Saturday. Our horse to follow and Bet Of the Day was Master O'Reilly who earnt himself a start in the Caulfield Cup by winning the Herbert Power Handicap over 2400m. His win was a good solid effort with impressive previous weeks Flemington winner Dolphin Jo left floundering in the Master's wake. Master O'Reilly opened at around the $2.30 mark however was heavily supported to start odds on at $1.90. He's in the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups with a very light weight and at the $11 currently on offer with fixed odds bookies, is great each way value for this Saturday's Caulfield Cup.
PASS members were told in our email on Saturday morning that Weekend Hustler was a living certainty and only bad luck would beat him. Maybe this was an easily predictable result however bookies bet black figure odds on Saturday afternoon and that indeed was a luxury for any race track certainty. We averaged better than $2 for him which is an amazing price considering he was $1.70 with fixed odds bookies for most of the week. Hopefully they put him away now and bring him back after a maturing spell and set him for the Australian Guineas in March.
The best selection for our members came without doubt in the Caulfield Stakes. We wrote in our email that Miss Finland was the "lay of the year" after her ordinary performance in the Underwood Stakes two weeks earlier. She plodded to the line yet again on Saturday and she cannot win the Cox Plate on that effort. It was a far better Melbourne Cup trial than one for the Cox Plate, however it is difficult to imagine she will have enough "miles" in her legs to be a serious contender on the first Tuesday in November. Our third special was nominated in this race and Maldivian didn't let our followers down. He showed he didn't have to lead, sitting outside Rubiscent before careering away at the top of the straight to a commanding lead. Jockey Michael Rodd eased him down close to the post as he was holding his rivals, leaving a little bit in reserve for this Saturday's Caulfield Cup. Dropping 7.5kg, he is a serious Cup contender and will be very hard to beat. The $3.20 on offer at present looks luxurious considering his form, and only a bad barrier will beat him on Saturday.
Our 4th and final selection finished a narrow second at the final Belmont meeting for their season. However, despite protesting against the winner, El Presidente had to settle for the runners up tag. He will atone for this defeat next time he starts as that was only his second run back from a spell and he will strip much fitter for the run. He had difficulty getting clear at the top of the straight, hampered by the eventual winner, before finally getting clear and striding to the front. The tough run told in the final 50 metres and Glory Hunter nailed him right on the line. Follow, El Presidente, he'll win plenty over the summer months at Ascot.
So 3 winners from 4 selections with a close second, with PASS also providing the winners of the first 3 legs of the Melbourne quadrella on Saturday. One lucky member snagged that quaddie multiple times thanks to the PASS selections.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
profselections@austarnet.com.au
PASS members were treated to a day out with 3 winners from only 4 selections on Saturday. Our horse to follow and Bet Of the Day was Master O'Reilly who earnt himself a start in the Caulfield Cup by winning the Herbert Power Handicap over 2400m. His win was a good solid effort with impressive previous weeks Flemington winner Dolphin Jo left floundering in the Master's wake. Master O'Reilly opened at around the $2.30 mark however was heavily supported to start odds on at $1.90. He's in the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups with a very light weight and at the $11 currently on offer with fixed odds bookies, is great each way value for this Saturday's Caulfield Cup.
PASS members were told in our email on Saturday morning that Weekend Hustler was a living certainty and only bad luck would beat him. Maybe this was an easily predictable result however bookies bet black figure odds on Saturday afternoon and that indeed was a luxury for any race track certainty. We averaged better than $2 for him which is an amazing price considering he was $1.70 with fixed odds bookies for most of the week. Hopefully they put him away now and bring him back after a maturing spell and set him for the Australian Guineas in March.
The best selection for our members came without doubt in the Caulfield Stakes. We wrote in our email that Miss Finland was the "lay of the year" after her ordinary performance in the Underwood Stakes two weeks earlier. She plodded to the line yet again on Saturday and she cannot win the Cox Plate on that effort. It was a far better Melbourne Cup trial than one for the Cox Plate, however it is difficult to imagine she will have enough "miles" in her legs to be a serious contender on the first Tuesday in November. Our third special was nominated in this race and Maldivian didn't let our followers down. He showed he didn't have to lead, sitting outside Rubiscent before careering away at the top of the straight to a commanding lead. Jockey Michael Rodd eased him down close to the post as he was holding his rivals, leaving a little bit in reserve for this Saturday's Caulfield Cup. Dropping 7.5kg, he is a serious Cup contender and will be very hard to beat. The $3.20 on offer at present looks luxurious considering his form, and only a bad barrier will beat him on Saturday.
Our 4th and final selection finished a narrow second at the final Belmont meeting for their season. However, despite protesting against the winner, El Presidente had to settle for the runners up tag. He will atone for this defeat next time he starts as that was only his second run back from a spell and he will strip much fitter for the run. He had difficulty getting clear at the top of the straight, hampered by the eventual winner, before finally getting clear and striding to the front. The tough run told in the final 50 metres and Glory Hunter nailed him right on the line. Follow, El Presidente, he'll win plenty over the summer months at Ascot.
So 3 winners from 4 selections with a close second, with PASS also providing the winners of the first 3 legs of the Melbourne quadrella on Saturday. One lucky member snagged that quaddie multiple times thanks to the PASS selections.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
profselections@austarnet.com.au
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
Consequences of EI To The Punter
As authorities headed by the DPI in all states endeavour to control the spread of EI within their designated zones, while trainers and jockeys in NSW and Queensland wonder when and where their horses will next race, while breeders despair over whether their broodmares will be served by stallions, we punters have been left lamenting as the forgotten misfits in the entire crisis.
Let's have a closer look, state by state of what punters are being dished up on daily basis compared to what we should have had if EI had not infected the country.
Firstly in Queensland, there has basically been no racing in SE Qld of any consequence since 24 August. There were a few closed meetings, however due to the break between races for most horses, it was difficult for punters to line up which horses were or weren't fit, and which horses had coped with the training retsrictions the best. So even in these meetings, punting was fraught with danger, and we certainly were not using them as potential betting meetings. Now, with no racing whatsoever in SE Qld, we see the focus move north to Rockhampton who are racing most Saturdays now, along with Townsville and Mackay. The form as these will meetings usually stack up, ansd the meetings at these venues in recent weeks are proving reasonable betting propositions as they always do. The meeting at Cairns yesterday, and for that matter future TAB meetings at Cairns will also fall into similar categpry with the other north coast tracks in Queensland. However, last Thursday the TAB allowed betting for the first time to our knowledge on a meeting at Charleville. On Thursday of this week, a TAB meeting will be conducted at the old mining town of Mount Isa. Now, I've been to a race meeting at the Mount and what a great day it was. Great for socialising and meeting the locals, having a cool ale or three, but not great for putning. Run on brown dirt, the races were very biased toward leaders with some horses carrying massive weights, a real horses for courses track. At Charleville last week, large, evenly matched fields abounded, so along with the dirt surface punters faced a herculian task to finish in front of the leger. I know a few punters who, starved of a punt on Queensland races, had bets at Charleville just for the sake of it, despite not knowing any of the horses, most of the jockeys, nor knowing the form or how the track might play. Good luck to QR for putting on these TAB meeting in an endeavour to salvage lost turnover, however, most are truely not punting propositions, and punters must take extreme care if they decide to outlay their cash on these meetings. Stick to Rocky, Mackay, Townsville and Cairns where we know the horses, know how the tracks play, and which form lines will stand up.
The "closed" NSW TAB meetings that have appeared since the outbreak of EI are even worse for punters. Mainly because most horses racing have not raced for several months, giving the punter little hope of knowing if each individual horse is fit enough to win their race. Not only that, the fields are massive, giving horses drawn out wide virtually no chance of figuring in the finish. Then last Friday, punters were given a meeting at Canberra, the first for two years on their course proper. Now, because of EI, and horse movement restrictions, most of the horses at Canberra had been racing on the Acton (inside) track at Canberra. On Friday, we saw form reversals galore as horses who were handling the Acton surface, found the grass too difficult for them, and conversely plenty of horses who struggled on the Acton, found a new lease of life back on grass. What a conundrum for punters !! Winning on the punt anywhere in NSW will be a nearly impossible task for the punter until racing resumes a normal schedule, we certainly will not be punting on any NSW race until at February, possibly longer.
One may wonder how the EI crisis could affect Victorian racing. They have totally ignored NSW and Qld to continue on regardless as close to their normal schedule as possible. However, we have noticed a few things occurring out of the norm. Firstly, over the early wekks of EI, say 25 August to mid September, there were a lot of meetings abandoned. For example instead of having 2 or 3 meetings on a Saturday or Sunday, only one was held. Now this meant plenty of horses were missing runs, and in the early days plenty of horses missed some work as well. This caused a lot of upset results, and still is. The fitter horses, those who didn't miss work, and continued to race are now much fitter than those who did not race. Now also consider the fact that NSW horses from Albury, Wagga etc are unable to travel across the border to race in Victoria as they normally would, as was the case with South Australian horses earlier in the crisis. What this has done, is encourage the trainers with larger stables to travel further around Victoria to try to win a race with their horses. So we see trainers like Lee Freedman, Colin Alderson, Peter Moody etc turning up at obscure meetings. Now their horse may win, they may not, but this throws form out the window not only for these races, but their next couple of starts. I have noticed a couple of Freedman horses win in the bush lately, he then puts them straight into a city race and they fail miserably, usually well in the market too. Punters see Freedman with a last start maiden winner for example racing at Sandown, and thinks Freedman must have an opinion of the horse bringing him straight to town after an easy kill in the bush. These types of horses are not going on with the job when facing tougher assignments as would normally be expected. And the massive form reversals and upsets during the Spring carnival so far have been glaring. Whether this has anything to do with EI, the fact no Qld or NSW horses are in Victoria for the carnival, whether some horses have taken longer to get fitter, it is hard to say, however never before has their been so many upset reults in the major races as we have seen so far this Spring. And this will continue.
The impact in other states, it must be said has been negligible. However another issue that has caused issues for punters is the introduction of Ratings Based races in SA, WA and Tasmania. These races continually turn up unusual results, as they have done in Victoria and NSW for the past 12 months. Treat these races as if they are a class race, using the most number of wins by a horse in the race as the real class. For example, in an RB72 races, of the 12 starters, the top weight has the most number of previous wins at 5, treat the race as a "pseudo" Class 5 race. So a horse who won a miaden at it's last start, racing against Class 5 or Class 4 horses, will usually struggle to win, despite any favours in the weights. And remember, the weights are decided on the horses rating, not decided on what class of horse he really is. A horse in this RB72 race might be a Class 1 horses, however has a rating of 70, therefore will still carry close to top weight, usually at least 57kg. And we would not want to be backing a Class 1 horse against Class 5 horses with almost top weight. Use 1.5 kg for each class a horse is below the horse with the most number of wins. Now this might seem like an exhorbitant amount, however it will save you backing horses unless they are most favourably weighted. So if a Class 5 horse is against a Class 1 horse, you should only back the class 1 horse if he gets at least 6kg from the Class 5 horse, and this will rarely happen. Of course, sometimes the Class 1 horse will win because he is an up and comer at his peak whereas the Class 5 horse is older and leg weary, however in the long term you will go broke backing a class 1 horse against horses who are of higher grade. Mares get a distinct advantage in these races too, usually a 2.5kg advantage which is equal to around 1.7 lengths. That is quite a lot considering they are rated on the same level, yet receive such a huge weight advantage.
We averaged almost 65 bets per month last racing season, showing an overall profit of just over 2% on turnover. In August we had only 30 bets, in September only 43, and look like having around the 40 mark for October well down on last years average. We are slightly in the positive for the year so far, after losing in August and making it up since then. However, having fewer bets due to EI and the RB races will in the long term affect our overall profits.
Not much we can do other than to be ultra patient and wait for the good things to come along. Come along they still do, however not as frequently as we are used to. Punters should be betting on meetings where there has been little or no disruption to racing. Races in WA, SA, North Eastern Queensland are certainly still good profitable betting propositions. Meetings in NSW, Western Queensland are certainly not betting propositions. Meetings in Victoria should be attacked with extreme caution at present, especially where the fields are inordinately large, try to stick to races which have smaller fields and there are only a couple of realistic chances in the race. And beware of RB races in all states, analyse the form and weights very carefully before deciding to bet on them.
PASS members are showing nice profits this racing year, with profit levels over 33% overall so far from only 25 selections. Our horses to follow are flying too with recent Group winners like Bon Hoffa and Master O'Reilly. So if you would like to be part of the action here at PASS, please contact us profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will show you how to become involved.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Let's have a closer look, state by state of what punters are being dished up on daily basis compared to what we should have had if EI had not infected the country.
Firstly in Queensland, there has basically been no racing in SE Qld of any consequence since 24 August. There were a few closed meetings, however due to the break between races for most horses, it was difficult for punters to line up which horses were or weren't fit, and which horses had coped with the training retsrictions the best. So even in these meetings, punting was fraught with danger, and we certainly were not using them as potential betting meetings. Now, with no racing whatsoever in SE Qld, we see the focus move north to Rockhampton who are racing most Saturdays now, along with Townsville and Mackay. The form as these will meetings usually stack up, ansd the meetings at these venues in recent weeks are proving reasonable betting propositions as they always do. The meeting at Cairns yesterday, and for that matter future TAB meetings at Cairns will also fall into similar categpry with the other north coast tracks in Queensland. However, last Thursday the TAB allowed betting for the first time to our knowledge on a meeting at Charleville. On Thursday of this week, a TAB meeting will be conducted at the old mining town of Mount Isa. Now, I've been to a race meeting at the Mount and what a great day it was. Great for socialising and meeting the locals, having a cool ale or three, but not great for putning. Run on brown dirt, the races were very biased toward leaders with some horses carrying massive weights, a real horses for courses track. At Charleville last week, large, evenly matched fields abounded, so along with the dirt surface punters faced a herculian task to finish in front of the leger. I know a few punters who, starved of a punt on Queensland races, had bets at Charleville just for the sake of it, despite not knowing any of the horses, most of the jockeys, nor knowing the form or how the track might play. Good luck to QR for putting on these TAB meeting in an endeavour to salvage lost turnover, however, most are truely not punting propositions, and punters must take extreme care if they decide to outlay their cash on these meetings. Stick to Rocky, Mackay, Townsville and Cairns where we know the horses, know how the tracks play, and which form lines will stand up.
The "closed" NSW TAB meetings that have appeared since the outbreak of EI are even worse for punters. Mainly because most horses racing have not raced for several months, giving the punter little hope of knowing if each individual horse is fit enough to win their race. Not only that, the fields are massive, giving horses drawn out wide virtually no chance of figuring in the finish. Then last Friday, punters were given a meeting at Canberra, the first for two years on their course proper. Now, because of EI, and horse movement restrictions, most of the horses at Canberra had been racing on the Acton (inside) track at Canberra. On Friday, we saw form reversals galore as horses who were handling the Acton surface, found the grass too difficult for them, and conversely plenty of horses who struggled on the Acton, found a new lease of life back on grass. What a conundrum for punters !! Winning on the punt anywhere in NSW will be a nearly impossible task for the punter until racing resumes a normal schedule, we certainly will not be punting on any NSW race until at February, possibly longer.
One may wonder how the EI crisis could affect Victorian racing. They have totally ignored NSW and Qld to continue on regardless as close to their normal schedule as possible. However, we have noticed a few things occurring out of the norm. Firstly, over the early wekks of EI, say 25 August to mid September, there were a lot of meetings abandoned. For example instead of having 2 or 3 meetings on a Saturday or Sunday, only one was held. Now this meant plenty of horses were missing runs, and in the early days plenty of horses missed some work as well. This caused a lot of upset results, and still is. The fitter horses, those who didn't miss work, and continued to race are now much fitter than those who did not race. Now also consider the fact that NSW horses from Albury, Wagga etc are unable to travel across the border to race in Victoria as they normally would, as was the case with South Australian horses earlier in the crisis. What this has done, is encourage the trainers with larger stables to travel further around Victoria to try to win a race with their horses. So we see trainers like Lee Freedman, Colin Alderson, Peter Moody etc turning up at obscure meetings. Now their horse may win, they may not, but this throws form out the window not only for these races, but their next couple of starts. I have noticed a couple of Freedman horses win in the bush lately, he then puts them straight into a city race and they fail miserably, usually well in the market too. Punters see Freedman with a last start maiden winner for example racing at Sandown, and thinks Freedman must have an opinion of the horse bringing him straight to town after an easy kill in the bush. These types of horses are not going on with the job when facing tougher assignments as would normally be expected. And the massive form reversals and upsets during the Spring carnival so far have been glaring. Whether this has anything to do with EI, the fact no Qld or NSW horses are in Victoria for the carnival, whether some horses have taken longer to get fitter, it is hard to say, however never before has their been so many upset reults in the major races as we have seen so far this Spring. And this will continue.
The impact in other states, it must be said has been negligible. However another issue that has caused issues for punters is the introduction of Ratings Based races in SA, WA and Tasmania. These races continually turn up unusual results, as they have done in Victoria and NSW for the past 12 months. Treat these races as if they are a class race, using the most number of wins by a horse in the race as the real class. For example, in an RB72 races, of the 12 starters, the top weight has the most number of previous wins at 5, treat the race as a "pseudo" Class 5 race. So a horse who won a miaden at it's last start, racing against Class 5 or Class 4 horses, will usually struggle to win, despite any favours in the weights. And remember, the weights are decided on the horses rating, not decided on what class of horse he really is. A horse in this RB72 race might be a Class 1 horses, however has a rating of 70, therefore will still carry close to top weight, usually at least 57kg. And we would not want to be backing a Class 1 horse against Class 5 horses with almost top weight. Use 1.5 kg for each class a horse is below the horse with the most number of wins. Now this might seem like an exhorbitant amount, however it will save you backing horses unless they are most favourably weighted. So if a Class 5 horse is against a Class 1 horse, you should only back the class 1 horse if he gets at least 6kg from the Class 5 horse, and this will rarely happen. Of course, sometimes the Class 1 horse will win because he is an up and comer at his peak whereas the Class 5 horse is older and leg weary, however in the long term you will go broke backing a class 1 horse against horses who are of higher grade. Mares get a distinct advantage in these races too, usually a 2.5kg advantage which is equal to around 1.7 lengths. That is quite a lot considering they are rated on the same level, yet receive such a huge weight advantage.
We averaged almost 65 bets per month last racing season, showing an overall profit of just over 2% on turnover. In August we had only 30 bets, in September only 43, and look like having around the 40 mark for October well down on last years average. We are slightly in the positive for the year so far, after losing in August and making it up since then. However, having fewer bets due to EI and the RB races will in the long term affect our overall profits.
Not much we can do other than to be ultra patient and wait for the good things to come along. Come along they still do, however not as frequently as we are used to. Punters should be betting on meetings where there has been little or no disruption to racing. Races in WA, SA, North Eastern Queensland are certainly still good profitable betting propositions. Meetings in NSW, Western Queensland are certainly not betting propositions. Meetings in Victoria should be attacked with extreme caution at present, especially where the fields are inordinately large, try to stick to races which have smaller fields and there are only a couple of realistic chances in the race. And beware of RB races in all states, analyse the form and weights very carefully before deciding to bet on them.
PASS members are showing nice profits this racing year, with profit levels over 33% overall so far from only 25 selections. Our horses to follow are flying too with recent Group winners like Bon Hoffa and Master O'Reilly. So if you would like to be part of the action here at PASS, please contact us profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will show you how to become involved.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
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