It has been a terrific week on the punt here at PASS.
Our last 5 major selections have provided 3 winners, and on Thursday we nominated two others for special consideration and both won. So the winners just keep coming.
Overall, our winning strike rate on our number 1 selections is over 45%, with an average winning price of $2.69. This would give punters an overall profit on investment a level stakes of over 23%.
Today we informed our members of two good things. Neither let us down and both saluted the judge first. At Morphettville in the R B Mackay Stakes, we told our members in this mornings email that Here De Angels was a good thing. Here De Angels and Corey Brown led all the way and paid top tote of $3.10. And at Sandown our members were infored of the credentials of Orange County who also won easily. The Brian Mayfield Smith camp is in sparkling form at present and his horses are very hard to beat. Orange County paid $2.10 top tote to the delight of our followers.
Yesterday at Seymour, one of our horses to follow ran around in the 1600m open handicap. Our members were told yesterday morning that this horse would not only win, but would go on to win the city, and eventually win a group race. Visit Me didn't let us down and won like the good horse he is. Jockey Michael Guthrie had problems obtaining a clear run in the early part of the straight, however he was patient and when the run came, Visit Me did the rest and gave nothing else a chance. Visit Me should be followed for the rest of this campaign, and through next spring, as he will win more races.
On Thursday, we suggested both Regal Celeb and Air Raid looked better than their rivals in their races at Wyong. Both saluted the judge first. Regal Celeb deserves special mention as he lumped 58.5kg on a 53kg limit, came from barrier 7 of 8, and still won convincingly. He is certainly another horse to follow, adn the Brisbane winter carnival now beckons him.
So plenty of winners, plenty of happy punters, plenty of full wallets, and more importantly, plenty of horses to follow that will win next time out.
If you would like to receive our daily emails, please contact us profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will show you how to become a member.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Saturday, April 21, 2007
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
Distance Races - From The Punters Point Of view
Distance races have been a bone of contention for us for some time now, and it probably time we spelt out traumors punters have when assessing a distance race, and who has a chance of winning.
Firstly, let's ask, what we consider to be a distance race. We feel any race whose distance is beyond 1600m should be considered a distance race. Some clutch at straws and claim that races from 1800m to 2400m are middle distance races, and those race beyond 2400m are staying races. And they may well be right, however how many races in a calendar year do we see over distances beyond 2400m? Other than the Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide & Perth Cups, the Duke of Norfolk Stakes, the only other 3200m races are hurdle or steeplechases. And the 2400m races other than the Derby's, can be counted on your fingers. Fact is, race clubs just don't schedule races over 2400m + any more. So for the sake of this post, we will call them all distance races, those that are set at 1800m and further.
So, why are we selecting this demographic of races to discuss. Two reasons, firstly as mentioned above, there are not many scheduled any more, and secondly and most importantly, they regularly bring up unusualy results. And the latter is why we are focusing on distance races. Not much we can influence with race scheduling, when breeders and yearling sale agencies only want fast speedy, magnificently bred 2yos. What we want to achieve here, is to find more winners, and continue to be successful on the punt.
So why are distance races so much harder in which to predict the result ? Why are races of distances between 1200m & 1600m easier to predict a result ? Why are we asking this question ? Because, our results over time emphatically point to a lower winning strike rate when it comes to races of distances further than 1600m. This has got to the point where we are seriously considering not betting on any race, whose distance is further than 1600m. Now that is a pretty serious step to take, depsite the fact that less than 10% of all races in Australia are run over disatnces further than 1800m.
Let's look at a few issues.
Other than Victoria, where distance racing does flourish, the general field size of distance races is usually small. We'll call small, less than 10 in this instance. Distance racing flourishes in Victoria for two reasons. Victoria Racing schedule plenty of them, and it is a gradual step for most horses to progress to hurdles and steeple chasing. In other states, there are very few distance races scheduled. This means that other than in Victoria, most horses are not seasoned enough to run these trips, and very few have ever been over these trips before. Horses must be taught to settle in these races, and any horse who has not been over the journey before is likely to want to go at the speed it is used to, when running over shorter distances. In smaller fields, over a distance, the pace can get very muddling, giving leaders a decided advantage. Why, because mathematically horses can only run so fast over the final 600m, and a leader who has done no work out in front and has plenty of energy left will still be able to run that final 600m almost as fast as the backmarker who is giving the leader 3-4 lengths start. It is then impossible for the backmarker to run the leader down. So the 20/1 shot, who got the easy lead, wins the race.
Let's look at top weighted, or highly weighted horses in distance events. My old mate, now departed Brian Blackmore always used to tell me, "Never back a top weight with more than 57kg in a distance race, they rarely win". He was very close to the mark, ole Brian. We have refined his thinking just a little in this day and age of rising limit weights. Don't back a horse carrying more than 4kg over the limit weight in a distance race. Why ? Think seriously about this, and leave out WFA racing, as it is a totally different weight scale. As we have said before, fields these days are very level considering the way the breeding industry has left us with a multitude of speedy squib 2yos. So we have a field of 10 lining up for a 2400m slog fest, top weight carries 58kg, limit weight is 53kg. Now 5kg may not sound like much, especially if the toppie ran 2nd at Flemington last start, and the bottom weight ran 5th at Seymour. However, the further they go, the slower the toppie is going to run. Horses can and will overcome weight differences on class at distances of 1200m, but not over 2400m. Weight will stop them, and if other things go wrong in the run, like the horse over racing, or getting trapped wide, or as mentioned before getting too far back in a slowly run race, then the toppie is in real strife. Be very wary of top weights in distance races, everything has to go perfectly for them to win. And you will usually be taking short odds to find out if the toppie can carry the weight and win. A poor combination.
One thing we have noticed in distance racing is horses improving, and horses form degenerating as they step up in distance. Let's look firstly at horses improving. Why can horses improve in distance races? Several reasons:-
1. The horse has been running over unsuitable shorter courses, finally gets up to his right distance, the distance he has shown in the past he likes, and he will improve.
2. The horse has had one, or maybe even two races at a distance in this preparation, is now fitter and ready to run a big race. This horse needs a few runs at the distance before showing his best form and now improvement will be seen.
3. The horse can also improve simply because he is meeting a weaker field, which is often the case in distance races.
4. The horse has had 3-4 runs into a preparation, and has not performed up until now. Because of his poor form over unsuitable distances, he drops dramatically in the weights. Now up to his right distance, in at a very low weight, the horse is primed to win.
All these factors must be taken into account when assessing the form of a distance race. Far more intricate than a simple 1200m race where the form will always stand up.
Now let's look at why a horses form may degenerate in distance races:-
1. The horse has been performing consistenly in shorter races, now steps up a distance, but finds he goes up in the weights. Up 2kg, and up 200m or even 400m in distance is not an ideal combination.
2. The horse may be trying the distance for the very first time. Will he run it, or will he not. It is a real gamble, as unless he is bred to stay, and most Aussie horses are not, then chances are he won't.
3. The horse may be at the end of his preparation and running him over a distance "just to try him out" seemed like a good idea at the time to the trainer. We see this all the time, horse not performing over 1400m-1600m, so the trainer throws him into a 2000m race to test the water.
4. The horse jumps 400m or more from his last start, especially if he has never run this distance before. These horses usually fail.
We will use the Sydney Cup last Saturday as an example. The two favourites were Blutigeroo and Prince Arthur. PASS potted both in our email on Saturday morning to our clients. Both were big lays. Why? Blutigeroo was jumping from a 2400m win, his first run at 2400m, to a Group 1 3200m race. Up 800m in distance. He is by Encounter, breeding told us he would never run 3200m, and he had never been over the distance before. Prince Arthur very similar. He is by Danehill. Has Danehill ever sired 3200m winner in Australia? Not that we can recall, and he too was running over 3200m for the first time, jumping over 800m in distance, and he had never won past 2000m. Silly prices bet about both, and both failed to run a place. Who won? The horse who had won a Group 2 race over the distance of 3200m less than a month before, so he was fit and in form. And Gallic's odds were much more succulent than the two faves.
All we are saying is that distance races are very, very difficult affairs. We know that from our statistics, we struggle to win on them. Summary points:-
1. Horses that are bred to run 1200m-1400m will not win over 2400m or further, which is the case for most horses bred in Australia.
2. Horses jumping 400m or more in distance, will not win distance races, unless they have won over the distance before.
3. Horses with the top weights will struggle to win distance races, unless they are proven at the distance and with the weight. Gallic was a classic example of this.
4. Horses will improve (even dramatically) when they get to their right distance, however it may take a run or to for the to get to their peak.
5. Small field distance races can be dominated by leaders, or on speed runners, by the jockey dictating the speed.
The bottom line is, if you want to bet in distance races, you are better off looking for good value. A horse down in the weights, proven over the distance, drawn well and fit enough to run the journey.
We will definately be limiting our bets in races over distances further than 1600m in the future. In fact, we may even place a moratorium on them. It is probably the safest way to go.
If you would like to be informed of lays such as Blutigeroo & Prince Arthur, before they run, then please contact us here profselections@austarnet.com.au and you too can recieve emails with our advice every day.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Firstly, let's ask, what we consider to be a distance race. We feel any race whose distance is beyond 1600m should be considered a distance race. Some clutch at straws and claim that races from 1800m to 2400m are middle distance races, and those race beyond 2400m are staying races. And they may well be right, however how many races in a calendar year do we see over distances beyond 2400m? Other than the Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide & Perth Cups, the Duke of Norfolk Stakes, the only other 3200m races are hurdle or steeplechases. And the 2400m races other than the Derby's, can be counted on your fingers. Fact is, race clubs just don't schedule races over 2400m + any more. So for the sake of this post, we will call them all distance races, those that are set at 1800m and further.
So, why are we selecting this demographic of races to discuss. Two reasons, firstly as mentioned above, there are not many scheduled any more, and secondly and most importantly, they regularly bring up unusualy results. And the latter is why we are focusing on distance races. Not much we can influence with race scheduling, when breeders and yearling sale agencies only want fast speedy, magnificently bred 2yos. What we want to achieve here, is to find more winners, and continue to be successful on the punt.
So why are distance races so much harder in which to predict the result ? Why are races of distances between 1200m & 1600m easier to predict a result ? Why are we asking this question ? Because, our results over time emphatically point to a lower winning strike rate when it comes to races of distances further than 1600m. This has got to the point where we are seriously considering not betting on any race, whose distance is further than 1600m. Now that is a pretty serious step to take, depsite the fact that less than 10% of all races in Australia are run over disatnces further than 1800m.
Let's look at a few issues.
Other than Victoria, where distance racing does flourish, the general field size of distance races is usually small. We'll call small, less than 10 in this instance. Distance racing flourishes in Victoria for two reasons. Victoria Racing schedule plenty of them, and it is a gradual step for most horses to progress to hurdles and steeple chasing. In other states, there are very few distance races scheduled. This means that other than in Victoria, most horses are not seasoned enough to run these trips, and very few have ever been over these trips before. Horses must be taught to settle in these races, and any horse who has not been over the journey before is likely to want to go at the speed it is used to, when running over shorter distances. In smaller fields, over a distance, the pace can get very muddling, giving leaders a decided advantage. Why, because mathematically horses can only run so fast over the final 600m, and a leader who has done no work out in front and has plenty of energy left will still be able to run that final 600m almost as fast as the backmarker who is giving the leader 3-4 lengths start. It is then impossible for the backmarker to run the leader down. So the 20/1 shot, who got the easy lead, wins the race.
Let's look at top weighted, or highly weighted horses in distance events. My old mate, now departed Brian Blackmore always used to tell me, "Never back a top weight with more than 57kg in a distance race, they rarely win". He was very close to the mark, ole Brian. We have refined his thinking just a little in this day and age of rising limit weights. Don't back a horse carrying more than 4kg over the limit weight in a distance race. Why ? Think seriously about this, and leave out WFA racing, as it is a totally different weight scale. As we have said before, fields these days are very level considering the way the breeding industry has left us with a multitude of speedy squib 2yos. So we have a field of 10 lining up for a 2400m slog fest, top weight carries 58kg, limit weight is 53kg. Now 5kg may not sound like much, especially if the toppie ran 2nd at Flemington last start, and the bottom weight ran 5th at Seymour. However, the further they go, the slower the toppie is going to run. Horses can and will overcome weight differences on class at distances of 1200m, but not over 2400m. Weight will stop them, and if other things go wrong in the run, like the horse over racing, or getting trapped wide, or as mentioned before getting too far back in a slowly run race, then the toppie is in real strife. Be very wary of top weights in distance races, everything has to go perfectly for them to win. And you will usually be taking short odds to find out if the toppie can carry the weight and win. A poor combination.
One thing we have noticed in distance racing is horses improving, and horses form degenerating as they step up in distance. Let's look firstly at horses improving. Why can horses improve in distance races? Several reasons:-
1. The horse has been running over unsuitable shorter courses, finally gets up to his right distance, the distance he has shown in the past he likes, and he will improve.
2. The horse has had one, or maybe even two races at a distance in this preparation, is now fitter and ready to run a big race. This horse needs a few runs at the distance before showing his best form and now improvement will be seen.
3. The horse can also improve simply because he is meeting a weaker field, which is often the case in distance races.
4. The horse has had 3-4 runs into a preparation, and has not performed up until now. Because of his poor form over unsuitable distances, he drops dramatically in the weights. Now up to his right distance, in at a very low weight, the horse is primed to win.
All these factors must be taken into account when assessing the form of a distance race. Far more intricate than a simple 1200m race where the form will always stand up.
Now let's look at why a horses form may degenerate in distance races:-
1. The horse has been performing consistenly in shorter races, now steps up a distance, but finds he goes up in the weights. Up 2kg, and up 200m or even 400m in distance is not an ideal combination.
2. The horse may be trying the distance for the very first time. Will he run it, or will he not. It is a real gamble, as unless he is bred to stay, and most Aussie horses are not, then chances are he won't.
3. The horse may be at the end of his preparation and running him over a distance "just to try him out" seemed like a good idea at the time to the trainer. We see this all the time, horse not performing over 1400m-1600m, so the trainer throws him into a 2000m race to test the water.
4. The horse jumps 400m or more from his last start, especially if he has never run this distance before. These horses usually fail.
We will use the Sydney Cup last Saturday as an example. The two favourites were Blutigeroo and Prince Arthur. PASS potted both in our email on Saturday morning to our clients. Both were big lays. Why? Blutigeroo was jumping from a 2400m win, his first run at 2400m, to a Group 1 3200m race. Up 800m in distance. He is by Encounter, breeding told us he would never run 3200m, and he had never been over the distance before. Prince Arthur very similar. He is by Danehill. Has Danehill ever sired 3200m winner in Australia? Not that we can recall, and he too was running over 3200m for the first time, jumping over 800m in distance, and he had never won past 2000m. Silly prices bet about both, and both failed to run a place. Who won? The horse who had won a Group 2 race over the distance of 3200m less than a month before, so he was fit and in form. And Gallic's odds were much more succulent than the two faves.
All we are saying is that distance races are very, very difficult affairs. We know that from our statistics, we struggle to win on them. Summary points:-
1. Horses that are bred to run 1200m-1400m will not win over 2400m or further, which is the case for most horses bred in Australia.
2. Horses jumping 400m or more in distance, will not win distance races, unless they have won over the distance before.
3. Horses with the top weights will struggle to win distance races, unless they are proven at the distance and with the weight. Gallic was a classic example of this.
4. Horses will improve (even dramatically) when they get to their right distance, however it may take a run or to for the to get to their peak.
5. Small field distance races can be dominated by leaders, or on speed runners, by the jockey dictating the speed.
The bottom line is, if you want to bet in distance races, you are better off looking for good value. A horse down in the weights, proven over the distance, drawn well and fit enough to run the journey.
We will definately be limiting our bets in races over distances further than 1600m in the future. In fact, we may even place a moratorium on them. It is probably the safest way to go.
If you would like to be informed of lays such as Blutigeroo & Prince Arthur, before they run, then please contact us here profselections@austarnet.com.au and you too can recieve emails with our advice every day.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Sunday, April 15, 2007
The Autumn Carnival Is Over
Been a very busy weekend and was unable to update yesterday. However it is now fair to say that the carnival is over.
The punt was successful over the weekend, albeit in a minor way. Our main selection on Saturday, My Son Day at Doomben, never looked a winning possibility, however our one and only selection streeted his opposition at Musswellbrook today. Ten To Countdown won the last race and paid top tote of $2.80.
Currently our top selections here at PASS are running with a winning Strike Rate of over 45%, with an average winning price of $2.69, giving us a profit on turnover at level stakes of over 21%. This is after over 5 months of giving out top selections, and does not include winners provided with horses to follow, and exotic bets. How many other information services can boast a 21% profit rating over almost 6 months, with information being provided on a daily basis. Very few we would suggest.
The autumn carnival at Royal Randwick was unfortunately marred by rain affected tracks. Therefore it is very difficult to draw conclusive conclusions to the form of most of the races, when trying to assess the form for the future. What we will do in this post, is try to put some perspective on the Sydney Autumn carnival as a whole.
Firstly, let's look at the 2yo racing. As we noted prior to the Golden Slipper, a different horse had won every major lead up race. Well nothing changed in the 3 Group 1 2yo races to follow. A different horse won the Slipper, the Sires Produce & the Champagne on Saturday. So what does that tell us? It is the most even crop of 2yo's for years, that is what it tells us, and the form that will progress to the 3yo year will not stand up. Camerilla who started favourite in the Champagne on Saturday, was pollaxed so badly in the straight, she will never race again and has been retired to stud. Meurice who won the race, had run in all the major 2yo races since the spring, won a few, ran a place in a few, ran unplaced in a couple. He is obviously a very good horse, however what he has achieved this autumn would suggest it will be difficult for him to attain that standard again in the spring. The best 3yo's in the spring will probably have only had a couple of runs at this stage of their careers, if any at all. Our suggestion is to forget all 2yo form when assessing chances in the spring.
And what of the open class sprinters. Well, Bentley Biscuit is probably the best to come out of this group, with two outstanding wins at his two most recent starts. He is now off to England to race, and he will be very competitive there, as long as races have plenty of pace in them allowing him to settle and run on. Spark Of Life was disappointing other than his first up win, might be heading for the retirement paddock. Takeover Target has some problems, and he did run a great race on Saturday, but first up over 1400m, really Joe, that is not his go. Fast N Famous did not live up to his hype, although the wet tracks did not help him. Again, not too many to get excited about here.
The fillies and mares category is far more interesting. Divine Madonna stamped herself as the best mare in the country up to 1600m. She won the Queen Of The Turf and ran a great 3rd in the Doncaster. No reason to think she won't be competitive in the spring. Hot Danish won on Saturday like a very, very good horse and she too has plenty of spring races at her mercy. Miss Finland is obviously outstanding in this category, and if she does race in the spring, a race like the Cox Plate would not be beyond her. Only a wet track dampened her performance in the Derby, and she will improve on that given a dry track. Teusday Joy was disappointing in our eyes, and we would be happy to risk her in the spring. She will get into a Caulfield Cup with a light weight, but she needs every single thing to go her way, and if Singo persists with Danny Beasley as her jockey, then her spring is as good as over now.
The 3yo colts & geldings were very simlilar to the 2yos with a different horse winning almost every group race. Fuimicino won the Derby and he will be right up to Caulfield & Melbourne Cups in the spring, especially if tracks are rain affected. However there was again no standout with a different horse winning every leg of the triple crown, and not even the same horse winning the Packer Plate or the Tulloch Stakes. A very even lot in our opinion and there might be a few who missed the autumn who will attack the spring as virtual unknowns. Th two who quninelled the Doncaster are a different proposition. We think Mentality is outstanding, and he will win Group 1 races in the Spring. We rate Haradasun marginally behind Mentality, however he too will win group 1 races in the spring if he avoids Mentality. Mentality will get the pull in the weights now from Haradasun after his 3 group 1 wins, and we are happy to back Mentality every time he races Haradasun in the spring.
The open class WFA horses still show they are not up to previous years. We predicted a big positive form reversal from Desert War on Saturday in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He loves 2000m, loves Randwick, and loves getting his own way in front. He didnt run the 2400m of the Tancred at Rosehill, just as Blutigeroo who won the Tancred did not run the 3200m of the Sydney Cup. The form of these horses will stand up at the right ditances, on the right track. Blutigeroo is a Caulfield Cup horse in the spring, Desert War is not, but Desert War could win the Cox Plate or the Mckinnon Stakes. All these races are a long way off, and the next superstar of WFA racing could be eating grass in the paddock as we type.
So, it is upward and onward to Brisbane winter carnival which is now starting to hot up. What horse that have just come back to racing will show up in the Sunshine State? Well, certainly Reigning To Win was well underdone and poorly ridden at Randwick on Monday. Whatever he did he will improve greatly next time out and will win. Not sure what the aim for him in Brisbane, but he will pick up a few races. The Stradbroke would not be beyond him. Primus will also be set for the Stradbroke and will improve on his first up effort on the wet track. He just doesn't get 1600m, so the 1400m of the Straddie will be right down his alley. One on the way to Brisbane for the QTC Derby is the Jack Denham trained Beau Celeb, who won effortlessly at Hawkesbuty on Monday. Jack only keeps a couple of good ones in his name now, so watch out for this bloke when he gets to 1600m and further. He will win a few races in Brisbane.
Trust everyone had a successful winning carnival. Plenty of winners provided her at PASS, and even a few exotics. As the weather gets cooler, our information gets hotter, so please contact us here to receive our daily emails profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
The punt was successful over the weekend, albeit in a minor way. Our main selection on Saturday, My Son Day at Doomben, never looked a winning possibility, however our one and only selection streeted his opposition at Musswellbrook today. Ten To Countdown won the last race and paid top tote of $2.80.
Currently our top selections here at PASS are running with a winning Strike Rate of over 45%, with an average winning price of $2.69, giving us a profit on turnover at level stakes of over 21%. This is after over 5 months of giving out top selections, and does not include winners provided with horses to follow, and exotic bets. How many other information services can boast a 21% profit rating over almost 6 months, with information being provided on a daily basis. Very few we would suggest.
The autumn carnival at Royal Randwick was unfortunately marred by rain affected tracks. Therefore it is very difficult to draw conclusive conclusions to the form of most of the races, when trying to assess the form for the future. What we will do in this post, is try to put some perspective on the Sydney Autumn carnival as a whole.
Firstly, let's look at the 2yo racing. As we noted prior to the Golden Slipper, a different horse had won every major lead up race. Well nothing changed in the 3 Group 1 2yo races to follow. A different horse won the Slipper, the Sires Produce & the Champagne on Saturday. So what does that tell us? It is the most even crop of 2yo's for years, that is what it tells us, and the form that will progress to the 3yo year will not stand up. Camerilla who started favourite in the Champagne on Saturday, was pollaxed so badly in the straight, she will never race again and has been retired to stud. Meurice who won the race, had run in all the major 2yo races since the spring, won a few, ran a place in a few, ran unplaced in a couple. He is obviously a very good horse, however what he has achieved this autumn would suggest it will be difficult for him to attain that standard again in the spring. The best 3yo's in the spring will probably have only had a couple of runs at this stage of their careers, if any at all. Our suggestion is to forget all 2yo form when assessing chances in the spring.
And what of the open class sprinters. Well, Bentley Biscuit is probably the best to come out of this group, with two outstanding wins at his two most recent starts. He is now off to England to race, and he will be very competitive there, as long as races have plenty of pace in them allowing him to settle and run on. Spark Of Life was disappointing other than his first up win, might be heading for the retirement paddock. Takeover Target has some problems, and he did run a great race on Saturday, but first up over 1400m, really Joe, that is not his go. Fast N Famous did not live up to his hype, although the wet tracks did not help him. Again, not too many to get excited about here.
The fillies and mares category is far more interesting. Divine Madonna stamped herself as the best mare in the country up to 1600m. She won the Queen Of The Turf and ran a great 3rd in the Doncaster. No reason to think she won't be competitive in the spring. Hot Danish won on Saturday like a very, very good horse and she too has plenty of spring races at her mercy. Miss Finland is obviously outstanding in this category, and if she does race in the spring, a race like the Cox Plate would not be beyond her. Only a wet track dampened her performance in the Derby, and she will improve on that given a dry track. Teusday Joy was disappointing in our eyes, and we would be happy to risk her in the spring. She will get into a Caulfield Cup with a light weight, but she needs every single thing to go her way, and if Singo persists with Danny Beasley as her jockey, then her spring is as good as over now.
The 3yo colts & geldings were very simlilar to the 2yos with a different horse winning almost every group race. Fuimicino won the Derby and he will be right up to Caulfield & Melbourne Cups in the spring, especially if tracks are rain affected. However there was again no standout with a different horse winning every leg of the triple crown, and not even the same horse winning the Packer Plate or the Tulloch Stakes. A very even lot in our opinion and there might be a few who missed the autumn who will attack the spring as virtual unknowns. Th two who quninelled the Doncaster are a different proposition. We think Mentality is outstanding, and he will win Group 1 races in the Spring. We rate Haradasun marginally behind Mentality, however he too will win group 1 races in the spring if he avoids Mentality. Mentality will get the pull in the weights now from Haradasun after his 3 group 1 wins, and we are happy to back Mentality every time he races Haradasun in the spring.
The open class WFA horses still show they are not up to previous years. We predicted a big positive form reversal from Desert War on Saturday in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He loves 2000m, loves Randwick, and loves getting his own way in front. He didnt run the 2400m of the Tancred at Rosehill, just as Blutigeroo who won the Tancred did not run the 3200m of the Sydney Cup. The form of these horses will stand up at the right ditances, on the right track. Blutigeroo is a Caulfield Cup horse in the spring, Desert War is not, but Desert War could win the Cox Plate or the Mckinnon Stakes. All these races are a long way off, and the next superstar of WFA racing could be eating grass in the paddock as we type.
So, it is upward and onward to Brisbane winter carnival which is now starting to hot up. What horse that have just come back to racing will show up in the Sunshine State? Well, certainly Reigning To Win was well underdone and poorly ridden at Randwick on Monday. Whatever he did he will improve greatly next time out and will win. Not sure what the aim for him in Brisbane, but he will pick up a few races. The Stradbroke would not be beyond him. Primus will also be set for the Stradbroke and will improve on his first up effort on the wet track. He just doesn't get 1600m, so the 1400m of the Straddie will be right down his alley. One on the way to Brisbane for the QTC Derby is the Jack Denham trained Beau Celeb, who won effortlessly at Hawkesbuty on Monday. Jack only keeps a couple of good ones in his name now, so watch out for this bloke when he gets to 1600m and further. He will win a few races in Brisbane.
Trust everyone had a successful winning carnival. Plenty of winners provided her at PASS, and even a few exotics. As the weather gets cooler, our information gets hotter, so please contact us here to receive our daily emails profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Thursday, April 12, 2007
Another Winner
Firstly, congratulations to our esteemed PASS member who snagged the Fat Quaddie at Randwick on Oaks Day. In our email yesterday morning, we highlighted the chances of both Sliding Cube & Rena's Lady. These two fillies were participating in the first two legs of the quaddie, so our member stood them out to win the first two legs, then coupled them up with several runners in the final two legs. Both Sliding Cube ($3.50) and Rena's Lady ($16.70) won the first two legs of the quaddie, his other multiple selections also saluted in the last two legs, and the fat quaddie was his. The quaddie paid over $8,000 on NSW TAB, however, because he stood out our two selections, he grabbed 218% of the quaddie, pocketing him well over $18,000. Well done, mate !!
Today, we provided our clients with only one selection, Rockhampton Race 3 No5 Where's The Spark. Where's The Spark was beautifully ridden by promising apprentice Chris McIver and won easily paying top tote of $3.70. Chris positioned the gelding perfectly well off the speed on the fence, brought him to the middle of the track in the straight, and Where's The Spark did the rest finishing powerfully over the final 200m to win comfortably.
A couple of horses to follow today from the meeting at Ballarat in Victoria. Both Its Prince & Thundering Spur won their respective assignments today, and bigger things are in store for them in the future. Another very interesting maiden winner today at Ballarat was the Mark Kavanagh trained Relentlessly, who is a half brother to his great 4yo mare, Divine Madonna. All three of these horses should be watched and followed as they progress through the grades.
We are having a day off the punt tomorrow to attend the Magic Millions Monthly Sale on the Gold Coast. However, we will be home in time to do plenty of form study to find a few winners for Saturday. With the prospect of a good track at Randwick for the last day of their carnival, we can finally get excited about having a punt over the autumn carnival.
If you would like all the winners currently being provded to our members, please contact us profselections@austarnet.com.au and the winners can be yours.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Today, we provided our clients with only one selection, Rockhampton Race 3 No5 Where's The Spark. Where's The Spark was beautifully ridden by promising apprentice Chris McIver and won easily paying top tote of $3.70. Chris positioned the gelding perfectly well off the speed on the fence, brought him to the middle of the track in the straight, and Where's The Spark did the rest finishing powerfully over the final 200m to win comfortably.
A couple of horses to follow today from the meeting at Ballarat in Victoria. Both Its Prince & Thundering Spur won their respective assignments today, and bigger things are in store for them in the future. Another very interesting maiden winner today at Ballarat was the Mark Kavanagh trained Relentlessly, who is a half brother to his great 4yo mare, Divine Madonna. All three of these horses should be watched and followed as they progress through the grades.
We are having a day off the punt tomorrow to attend the Magic Millions Monthly Sale on the Gold Coast. However, we will be home in time to do plenty of form study to find a few winners for Saturday. With the prospect of a good track at Randwick for the last day of their carnival, we can finally get excited about having a punt over the autumn carnival.
If you would like all the winners currently being provded to our members, please contact us profselections@austarnet.com.au and the winners can be yours.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
Ladies Day
Today was nominated Ladies Day by the AJC and saw the running of the time honoured AJC Oaks for the 3yo fillies. It was great to see the Oaks returned to its traditional place on the racing calendar and run on the Wednesday of the Autumn Carnival. Unfortunately, Randwick played on a slow again today which is disappointing for punters. And after the races on Oaks Day, the racing fraternity heads to Newmarket to partake in the William Inglis Easter Yearling Sales, the number 1 yearling sale on the calendar.
A most hearty congratulations should be sent to Gary Portelli today. He trained his first Group 1 winner today when Rena's Lady led all the way to win the AJC Oaks. A terrific front running ride by Michael Rodd saw the Arena filly hold challenges by the more fancied runners to win at the luxurious odds of $16.70. Rodd set a muddling pace throughout the race, and gave the backmarkers little hope of making up the necessary ground in the straight. He knew his filly would handle the rain affected track, and he knew she would stay the 2400m and that she did. Let's hope there are plenty more Group 1 winners for Gary, he is one of the nice guys and deserves his success. Michael Rodd is also one of the more level headed jockeys around, and he can ride. In our opinion, Rodd is one of the top 5 jockeys in Australia, if not in the top 3. Never be afraid to put your money on either Michael Rodd or Gary Portelli as you know they are both trying every time they go around.
Randwick today also played host to a regally bred chestnut 2yo filly. This filly is by champion European galloper Rock Of Gibraltar, out of Shantha's Choice, who is no less the dam of Redoute's Choice & Platinum Scissors. Her name is Sliding Cube, and she is owned in the same interests as her famous brothers. She had won her first race start at Warwick Farm by over 3 lengths, and came to Randwick today to compete in a Listed race. She showed today, breeding can get you any where fast, and at only her second start in a race, she duely saluted and now has that important black type in her pedigree. Sliding Cube could well head to Brisbane now for the winter carnival, as she has only had two runs. But she could also be a force in the Spring racing in Victoria if given her chance there.
We gave out two PASS selections today, without much luck to either. Both Boy John and Gold Dove finished second after being in front only metres before the winning post.
A horse we have earmarked to follow went around at Sandown this afternoon, and performed most disappointingly. Kitz Lane has been good to us in the past and we think he is a group horse in the making. The following extract is from the Stewards Report from Sandown today:-
When questioned, V Duric (Kitz Lane (NZ)) explained that he was obliged to use the horse’s gate speed early, however, the gelding dipped several times during the race and he could offer no further explanation as to why it failed to run on. A veterinary examination of Kitz Lane (NZ) revealed the gelding to be suffering with atrial fibrillation. Trainer Mr L Freedman was notified that prior to Kitz Lane (NZ) racing again, a veterinary certificate, along with the satisfactory results of an ECG, must be produced.
Hopefully the run can be overlooked, and nothing serious happened to him, as he is a promising horse. We will let you all know when he fronts up at the race track again.
More racing on tomorrow, All Aged Stakes Day at Randwick on Saturday. The winter carnival is starting to hot up in Brisbane, so plenty to look forward to in the coming weeks.
If you would like to receive our daily emails, which porvide you with all the information you require to profit from punting on horse racing, then please contact us profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
A most hearty congratulations should be sent to Gary Portelli today. He trained his first Group 1 winner today when Rena's Lady led all the way to win the AJC Oaks. A terrific front running ride by Michael Rodd saw the Arena filly hold challenges by the more fancied runners to win at the luxurious odds of $16.70. Rodd set a muddling pace throughout the race, and gave the backmarkers little hope of making up the necessary ground in the straight. He knew his filly would handle the rain affected track, and he knew she would stay the 2400m and that she did. Let's hope there are plenty more Group 1 winners for Gary, he is one of the nice guys and deserves his success. Michael Rodd is also one of the more level headed jockeys around, and he can ride. In our opinion, Rodd is one of the top 5 jockeys in Australia, if not in the top 3. Never be afraid to put your money on either Michael Rodd or Gary Portelli as you know they are both trying every time they go around.
Randwick today also played host to a regally bred chestnut 2yo filly. This filly is by champion European galloper Rock Of Gibraltar, out of Shantha's Choice, who is no less the dam of Redoute's Choice & Platinum Scissors. Her name is Sliding Cube, and she is owned in the same interests as her famous brothers. She had won her first race start at Warwick Farm by over 3 lengths, and came to Randwick today to compete in a Listed race. She showed today, breeding can get you any where fast, and at only her second start in a race, she duely saluted and now has that important black type in her pedigree. Sliding Cube could well head to Brisbane now for the winter carnival, as she has only had two runs. But she could also be a force in the Spring racing in Victoria if given her chance there.
We gave out two PASS selections today, without much luck to either. Both Boy John and Gold Dove finished second after being in front only metres before the winning post.
A horse we have earmarked to follow went around at Sandown this afternoon, and performed most disappointingly. Kitz Lane has been good to us in the past and we think he is a group horse in the making. The following extract is from the Stewards Report from Sandown today:-
When questioned, V Duric (Kitz Lane (NZ)) explained that he was obliged to use the horse’s gate speed early, however, the gelding dipped several times during the race and he could offer no further explanation as to why it failed to run on. A veterinary examination of Kitz Lane (NZ) revealed the gelding to be suffering with atrial fibrillation. Trainer Mr L Freedman was notified that prior to Kitz Lane (NZ) racing again, a veterinary certificate, along with the satisfactory results of an ECG, must be produced.
Hopefully the run can be overlooked, and nothing serious happened to him, as he is a promising horse. We will let you all know when he fronts up at the race track again.
More racing on tomorrow, All Aged Stakes Day at Randwick on Saturday. The winter carnival is starting to hot up in Brisbane, so plenty to look forward to in the coming weeks.
If you would like to receive our daily emails, which porvide you with all the information you require to profit from punting on horse racing, then please contact us profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Easter Recap
We punters are a resilliant lot. Good Friday comes and goes every year and we actually survive without being able to have a bet on the gallops. But the TAB's and race clubs make it up to us over the next few days as a plethora of racing engulfs us. Easter is not only a time where a couple of Public Holidays allow most of us to get a long weekend, it is a time where a famine evolves into a feast for the punter.
We here at PASS have had a quiet time of it leading up to Easter, however we came out with all guns ablaze over the weekend. Two out of our four specials saluted over the three days, Tonz More Fun on Sunday and Almost Never on Easter Monday. We also selected the trifecta in the Doncaster in four, this right on the heels of selecting for our members the trifecta in the Golden Slipper a week before. Yesterday, our members were also pointed in the direction of winners from our horses to follow, Master O'Reilly, and another who has just joined that list, Beau Celeb. And one member snagged the quaddie at Caulfield on Saturday, after standing out our No1 selection in the Easter Cup, Maldivian. So the plethora of racing has led to a plethora of winners for all our members here at PASS.
PASS has now been providing information for punters for 6 months. We consistently select winners, we consistenly provide horses to follow which keep winning and we consistently assist punters to profit from betting on horse racing. We have provided over 100 selections, for a winning strike rate of over 45%, an average winning price of $2.68, with profit levels well over 21% on turnover at level stakes. It would be very difficult to nominate any other professional information service on Australian horse racing that can boast a record as good as that, over a lengthy period of time. And on top of that, we are providing information to point our members into profiting from exotic betting as well.
So, how good is Haradasun? Will Forensics win another race? Who will win the AJC Oaks? Read on.
The Doncaster has become a race for 3yos over recent years. Sunline (51kg), Over (51kg), Racing To Win (51.5kg) have all won carrying light weights in recent years. Yesterday, Haradasun (53kg) & Mentality (55kg) were asked to carry more wight than any of these previous winners. Even Emancipation had to carry 54kg back in the early 80s before going on to win easily. So you can see by weights and measures, the efforts of both Haradasun and Mentality were outstanding. Haradasun started from barrier 1, Mentality from barrier 14. Boss rode Haradasun perfectly, as did Beadman on Mentality. At the weights, these two should not have won the race, but they did indeed fight the race out. This points to both being well above average, and with natural improvement, they will be the stars of the Spring carnival later in the year. Looking at the weights of this years Doncaster, and the barrier draw, we think Mentality is a better horse than Haradasun, and he will prove that in the spring. In saying that, both will win Group 1 races in the future, in fact, both will win multiple group races in the future as long as they stay sound. Both should be followed, and next time they meet, if Mentality gets the pull in the weights, get on him.
The Derby was run on Saturday on a badly rain affected track, and we feel not too much should be read into the form. Fiumicino was too good on the day and deserved his victory, and we certainly cannot deny Nick Moraitis nor John Hawkes, nor Darren Beadman a Derby win. He will furnish into a great Cups horse in the Spring if he stays sound. Hard to line up the others, obviously Ambitious General is a very good horse and he too will aquit himself well in the spring. Miss Finland got bogged down in the slow going, she now needs a good long spell. And Tuesday Joy will go around again tomorrow in the Oaks after finishing a gallant third behind the top two colts and geldings. Can she win? Well, she has lengths on her opposition, and as long as she has taken no harm from Saturdays run, then she should win. However she is not a betting proposition to us.
And the Golden Slipper form stood up on Saturday in the AJC Sires Produce Stakes with Zizou going down narrowly to Camerilla who missed the Slipper to give the winner Forensics a run. Two very good 2yo fillies winning the Group 1's in successive weeks for John Hawkes and Darren Beadman. He can place them Hawkesy. You have to feel sorry for the connections of Zizou, second placings in the three major Group 1s for 2yos, the Blue Diamond, Golden Slipper, and the AJC Sires Produce. Only the Spring will tell us if the 2yo form will stand up.
Now, here at PASS we have come up with a couple of good things for tomorrow. Looks like a reasonable track will prevail at Royal Randwick, so we can bet with a little more confidence than over the weekend. We also have a horse running at Sandown that we have not revealed as yet to our members that will be winning. He is a very promising, and lightly raced gelding that in our opinion will win Group 1 races.
If you would like to be afforded all the information you require to profit from punting on horse racing, icluding the good things for AJC Oaks Day, please contact us here profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will provide you with all the information you need.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
We here at PASS have had a quiet time of it leading up to Easter, however we came out with all guns ablaze over the weekend. Two out of our four specials saluted over the three days, Tonz More Fun on Sunday and Almost Never on Easter Monday. We also selected the trifecta in the Doncaster in four, this right on the heels of selecting for our members the trifecta in the Golden Slipper a week before. Yesterday, our members were also pointed in the direction of winners from our horses to follow, Master O'Reilly, and another who has just joined that list, Beau Celeb. And one member snagged the quaddie at Caulfield on Saturday, after standing out our No1 selection in the Easter Cup, Maldivian. So the plethora of racing has led to a plethora of winners for all our members here at PASS.
PASS has now been providing information for punters for 6 months. We consistently select winners, we consistenly provide horses to follow which keep winning and we consistently assist punters to profit from betting on horse racing. We have provided over 100 selections, for a winning strike rate of over 45%, an average winning price of $2.68, with profit levels well over 21% on turnover at level stakes. It would be very difficult to nominate any other professional information service on Australian horse racing that can boast a record as good as that, over a lengthy period of time. And on top of that, we are providing information to point our members into profiting from exotic betting as well.
So, how good is Haradasun? Will Forensics win another race? Who will win the AJC Oaks? Read on.
The Doncaster has become a race for 3yos over recent years. Sunline (51kg), Over (51kg), Racing To Win (51.5kg) have all won carrying light weights in recent years. Yesterday, Haradasun (53kg) & Mentality (55kg) were asked to carry more wight than any of these previous winners. Even Emancipation had to carry 54kg back in the early 80s before going on to win easily. So you can see by weights and measures, the efforts of both Haradasun and Mentality were outstanding. Haradasun started from barrier 1, Mentality from barrier 14. Boss rode Haradasun perfectly, as did Beadman on Mentality. At the weights, these two should not have won the race, but they did indeed fight the race out. This points to both being well above average, and with natural improvement, they will be the stars of the Spring carnival later in the year. Looking at the weights of this years Doncaster, and the barrier draw, we think Mentality is a better horse than Haradasun, and he will prove that in the spring. In saying that, both will win Group 1 races in the future, in fact, both will win multiple group races in the future as long as they stay sound. Both should be followed, and next time they meet, if Mentality gets the pull in the weights, get on him.
The Derby was run on Saturday on a badly rain affected track, and we feel not too much should be read into the form. Fiumicino was too good on the day and deserved his victory, and we certainly cannot deny Nick Moraitis nor John Hawkes, nor Darren Beadman a Derby win. He will furnish into a great Cups horse in the Spring if he stays sound. Hard to line up the others, obviously Ambitious General is a very good horse and he too will aquit himself well in the spring. Miss Finland got bogged down in the slow going, she now needs a good long spell. And Tuesday Joy will go around again tomorrow in the Oaks after finishing a gallant third behind the top two colts and geldings. Can she win? Well, she has lengths on her opposition, and as long as she has taken no harm from Saturdays run, then she should win. However she is not a betting proposition to us.
And the Golden Slipper form stood up on Saturday in the AJC Sires Produce Stakes with Zizou going down narrowly to Camerilla who missed the Slipper to give the winner Forensics a run. Two very good 2yo fillies winning the Group 1's in successive weeks for John Hawkes and Darren Beadman. He can place them Hawkesy. You have to feel sorry for the connections of Zizou, second placings in the three major Group 1s for 2yos, the Blue Diamond, Golden Slipper, and the AJC Sires Produce. Only the Spring will tell us if the 2yo form will stand up.
Now, here at PASS we have come up with a couple of good things for tomorrow. Looks like a reasonable track will prevail at Royal Randwick, so we can bet with a little more confidence than over the weekend. We also have a horse running at Sandown that we have not revealed as yet to our members that will be winning. He is a very promising, and lightly raced gelding that in our opinion will win Group 1 races.
If you would like to be afforded all the information you require to profit from punting on horse racing, icluding the good things for AJC Oaks Day, please contact us here profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will provide you with all the information you need.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
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