Race Day Selection Process

Last week we covered some basic standard rules to adopt before we start to punt. This week we will cover the important facets of form study we take into consideration when making a race day selection. Following this we will break them all down into separate categories, and concentrate on them one by one in indiviual articles.

Without trying to state the obvious time should be spent looking at:-

Type of race
Recent form
Form over todays distance
Form at todays track
Jockey, Trainer & Barrier
Class of the race
Weight being carried
Pace of the race
Stewards Reports/Videos
Track & weather conditions
Possible track bias

Firstly, an accurate form guide that gives all the information that is required to make a sound assessment. There are plenty of free form guides available on the internet for Australian horse racing. The more preferable ones are supplied by sites such as Expertform, Racenet, RSB (Victorian Racing site), AAP Racing & Sports, Queensland Racing & WATC Racing Information Service. All provide an adequate coverage, and all are free of charge. Publications such as The Sportsman are also excellent form guides and provide almost all information required.

Basically what we are doing when we assess the form of a race is to predict the outcome of events. And to do this we require as much information about every aspect of each runner, the track, the weather conditions etc to be able to perform this task. It is not easy to predict the outcome, but it can be done with reasonable accuracy if time is taken to look at all aspects. What we find, is that it is not too difficult to find plenty of winners, it is restricting the amount of losers which is the hard part.

With so much racing around the country in this day & age, it would be easy to go broke very quickly betting on every horse race that is covered by TAB's and corporate bookies. Therefore the next most important issue is which races to concentrate on. The best races to bet on are ones where the form is well exposed and most or all the horses entered have recent form to assess. So we usually discount maiden races, and races over distances of less than 1200m because we find too many horses either having their first start in a race, or first up from a spell. We also rarely bet on races at distances further than 1800m, as it can be very hard to assess the pace of the race, and horses can jump grades very quickly in distance races without surprising. We also look unfavourably on races restricted to Fillies & Mares, as some of these equines can be prone to put in a poor run here and there. So predominantly, we look at Class 1 races or better, over distances of 1200m -1800m. Now that stops plenty of bets each week for a starter. If there are still too many races for consideration, concentrate on one state, and that state only for a while until comfortable the extra races to look at wone be a burden on time resources.

When assessing the form it is imperative to look closely at every runner in the race, not just the first 3-4 in the weights. It is very easy to overlook a horse who last three runs have been 907, but there may be some extenuating circumstances as to why the horse performed poorly. The horse may have been racing over unsuitable distances, drawn wide barriers, been ridden poorly, copped a bad check, or even all of the above. Look at every horses form, but in seriousness, only consider those with solid recent form, or solid form over todays distance or at todays track.

Unless a horse is in outstanding form, concentrate punting on well known, experienced trainers and jockeys who consistently win races. Look for trainers & jockeys with good winning strike rates, expecially good winning strike rates at todays track and distance. And winning combinations like Hawkes/Beadman, Moody/Nolen, Freedman/Oliver should also be taken into consideration. We keep a list of trainers & jockeys who we will back, and those we won't. Stick to the list rigidly, unless you see a marked improvement in one on the banned list, or a degeneration of one on the positive list. The better more experienced trainers place their horses more favourably, and the better more experienced jockeys make fewer mstakes during the running of a race. Trainers & jockeys are like horses, they have good runs and losing runs which punters must be aware of. Some trainers, like a Paul Cave, Jim Leek jnr, Eric Musgrove, are far better trainers of stayers than sprinters, so you may have to have another list to make allowances for these types of trainers.

And we don't back horses starting from wide barriers. Usually outside about 6 or 7, but that is determined by the number of runners in the race. Smaller fields, say up to 6 or 7, barriers should play a lesser role, but in fields of 18-20, barriers are very important, especially if there is only a short run to the first turn. So be aware of all track maps of every track punting is intended.

Ensure the horse being considered is in the right class of race, and if not, whether any weight advantage or disadvantage is applied. Horses can win out of their class with a lower weight, but they may also be incapable of performing well in their own class if they too much weight. Big strong horses can carry big weights, whereas smaller not so robust horses have trouble with bigger weights. If a horse has carried weight to victory in the past, it is reasonable to assume he can do it again. As a rule, however, it is rare for us to back a horse that is more than 4kg over the limit weight. There are exceptional circumstances in that regard and it is not a rule of thumb, but should be used a guide, especially in distance races. Try to ignore horses jumping from a maiden win to Class 2, 3 or higher, they rarely win unless they are exceptional.

Always have a picture in your mind (or even draw a diagram if that is easier) as to how the race will be run. Who will lead, will there be pace from outside barriers, will a couple drop back from wide barriers? Plenty of questions can be asked, but get a clear picture in your mind that your selection is going to get the run needed to win the race. If the horse gets a long way back, will there anough pace on for it to run on strongly? But most importantly, which horse will get the easiest run in the race. In behind the speed, waiting to pounce in the straight, that is where you want your horse to be. With horse racing so even these days, luck in running, and getting the cushiest run determines the outcome of most races. Make sure your selection is the one who can get the gun run.

Try to read Stewards Reports to see which runners in races had no luck at their previous outing, and could improve today. Obtain videos too if possible and watch past races. See who was impressive and won easing up without being pressuered by the jockey. Which horses didn't get a clear run in the straight and should have finished closer, which horse had a wide run from a poor alley whose run should be forgotten. And which horse had the easy run in behind the speed, but was not good enough to win. Watching videos, and reading Stewards Reports will give you a much clearer picture of the real chances in todays race.

Arguably, the most important facet is weather & track conditions, and any track bias. It is very rare for us to punt on tracks worse than dead. Form is all over the place, especially if all or most horses have been performing recently on rain affected tracks. Make sure the predominant weather pattern for the day is known. It may be Fine/Good at 8:30am in the morning, however if a storm hits at midday, 25mm of rain is dumped on the course, then this changes the perpsective of every race on the program. Preferably, place your bets as late as possible so you are aware of any change in track conditions, but is this is not possible, then be aware if a storm or rain due. Most courses you can reasonably assess prior to a meeting if the track favours on pace horses or run on horses. Tracks like Randwick, Rosehill, Eagle Farm & Flemington are usually considered very fair and horses cna win from anywhere. But some city tracks, like Canterbury, Moonee Valley or Warwick Farm, can assist on pace runners. And a lot of country tracks with short straights, certainly play toward fron runners. Again, seek out track maps and know the layouts.

Track bias is a controversial aspect of todays horse racing. Most course curators deny it exists, even some commentators refuse to admit it exists. Believe us, it does, and always will due to the high volume of racing in this day and age. Watch a few races before having a bet if you are unsure. The best races to assess any bias, are races over distances between 1200m and 1600m. 1000m dashes usually lean to leaders winning in any case, and races over 2000m or more usually lean themselves to back markers depedning on the pace of the race. So be aware of this when assessing any bias on the day.

So there is certainly plenty to think about when assessing a race. Allocate plenty of time, don't rush your assessments, look at every runner & every aspect, and utilise every bit of information you can find. We will dissect these facets individually in more detail as the weeks progress.

You can never know too much, and you can always learn more.

Feedback on these articles are welcome to profselections@austarnet.com.au

Good luck and profitable punting.