Following on from our article earlier in the week that looked at the basic selection process, what we would like to do today is look at what should be done before even having a bet is considered.
A basic approach should be very organised. You must be comfortable with three important facets. Where you are going to place your bets to get the best value, bankroll management & recording your statistics.
Let's take bankroll management first because you can't have a bet if you don't have any money. As indicated in our original article, you should only bet what you can afford to lose. So work out what is a comfortable bank for you to start with and keep that bank separate from all your day to day money. The best way to this is to open an account with an agency. That way not only is your punting money out of the way, it is also not easy to get at to spend on other things. You then have to organise a staking plan that suits your bank.
Okay so let's look at a few examples. Say you are comfortable with placing $1,000 in your punting bank. You then must work out what percentage of that bank you are comfortable to bet with. Most professionals bet around 2-2.5% of their bank for each bet. PASS bets 5% on each bet. If you use this level staking plan at 5% it will take you 20 losers to run out of money. Now, if you have 20 successive losers, then you have a major issue with your selection process, not with your staking plan. PASS usually has a losing streak of between 5 and 8 losers once a month, longest losing streak on record is 13, so 20 bets covers this comfortably. So we suggest your start with a set bank, and punt 5% at a level stakes and monitor this after a month and see how you are fairing. You can then tweak it a little either way in percentage, or alter the staking plan a little. PASS takes 5% of the starting bank every day, and bets that stake on every runner that day. The next day we calculate 5% of the new bank and use that as our wager for the day. When we get to 10% above our starting bank, we withdraw funds down to the original bank, and commence the process again. So, if we started with $1,000, when we get to $1,100, we withdraw $100 and go back to betting $20 per bet on the next day. This way you have plenty to cover any losing streak that hits you, and they will hit we promise. And you also know exactly when to withdraw funds so as not to ruin your punting bank.
There are various staking plans that can be used. Some are quite cut throat in that you increase your bets until you back a winner and get in front. You require an extremely good winning strike rate for these staking plans, a strike rate of well over 50%. You can increase in increments of 5% or even 10%, but if a long losing streak hits, these are fraught with danger and your bank will diminish very quickly.
One of the simplest staking plans is to start with say, $1,000. Bet a level stake of 5% until you reach $1,500. Then increase you stake to 5% of $1500 and bet that amount until you reach $2,000, then increase you stake to 5% of $2,000 and bet that until you get to $2500. When you reach $3,000, double your original bank, withdraw $2,000 and start again. As long as you consistently win and your winning strike rate is high, this is a practicle and conservative way to profit.
Now we know what we have as a starting bank & a staking plan, the next item to put into place is a stringent recording system for keeping your statistics. Every bet must be recorded. There are no "fun" bets. Every bet must be compatible with your staking plan, and each bet must come out if your punting bank only. This should make it easy for you to record every bet. Record where the bet was, how much you outlayed, where the horse finished, what it paid if it won, and how much you won on the bet. At PASS we complete a daily total of outgoings and incomings. And at the end of the month, we tally up to work out profit/loss for that month. We work on the racing calendar year and show profit/loss for every year. Use the calendar year if you are more comfortable with that, or even the financial year. Doesn't matter which, the important thing is to record every bet, and know exactly how you are fairing at any stage of a day, month or year.
We started recording our bets over 15 years ago, and in all seriousness, it is the single most important factor that turned our punting around into profit. If you don't know how many winners or losers you are backing, you don't know if you are a good punter or a poor one. And I assure you all, most punters are losers, not only don't know know it, but certainly will never admit to it. Recording bets does not help you back winners, but it does tell you more about your punting than anything else will. You can tell how much you outlayed for a certain period, how much you returned, how many winners you backed, and how many losers. What your average winning price was and what you Profit On Investment was. All these pieces of information will help you adjust your punting so you can show a profit. You will be able to see when losing streaks occur, and what to do to stop them. Most losing punters find they bet more when losing to try to recoup losses. When a losing streak occurs, maybe you have to reduce your bets until your selection process gets itself back on track. If you don't record every bet, you will never know how long the losing streak is, how badly it is affecting your bank and how to adjust to rectify the situation. If you have every staistic at your fingertips, you will be able to identify what is going wrond, and what you have to do to turn it around.
Now you have a bank, and you have an excell spread sheet or exercise book to record your bets, where are you going to place your bets to maximise your profits. Most people head off to the local TAB where they take out from 14.5% of every bet before a return is even thought about. So every winner you back, you are down 14.5% of your outlay before the race is run. If you play trifectas, quinella or quaddies, the takeout is closer to 20%. PASS would lose every year if we lost 20% before the race was even run. So how do we overcome the TAB takeouts? We use alternatives to TAB's.
The best way to beat the totes is to go to the track and use bookmakers. They will give you a fixed odds price, with no 14.5% or 20% takeout. If you can't get to the track, then the next best alternative is to use Corporate Bookies, or Betfair. There are plenty of corporate bookies that offer great deals. They offer fixed prices, starting prices, top fluctuations as wll as top tote odds. Some even offer an extra percentage on top of top tote prices, which gives the punter an added advantage. There are many corporate bookies, PASS predominantly uses IAS, Sportingbet and Centre Racing. However, Sportsbet, Austote & Betfair are all acceptable. One word of warning is to spread your bank around amongst several of them, because some bookies do close accounts of consistent winners. And if you do consistently win, make regular withdrawals.All these alternatives are easily accessible on the internet, please contact us here if you have difficulty finding any of them.
In summary, work out what you can afford to lose, and use that as a separate punting bank. Formulate a staking plan that suits yourself and your bank and stick to it rigidly. Record every bet, large, small, serious or fun and continue keep stringent statistics of all bets. And use alternative betting agencies to TAB's to reduce takeouts.
Now you are ready to start punting. You have a bank, you have a staking plan, you have the technology to record every bet, and you have accounts with organisations that will maximise your profits. All you need now is to find a few winners, and we will point everyone in the right direction in future articles.
If you would like more information on anything we have discussed here, staking plans, banks, recording statistics or alternative betting agencies send us an email to profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will be glad to assist further.
Good luck and profitable punting.
Friday, December 8, 2006
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