The Les Bridge trained Utzon yesterday made light work of a big weight to win the time honoured Villiers Stakes at Royal Randwick. Brilliantly ridden by Len Beasley, who took every advantage of barrier 1, Utzon finished strongly in the final 150m to win narrowly but convincingly.
Utzon was exclusively selected to PASS members yesterday morning. Our members were told that despite the big weight, Utzon had a class edge on all his rivals and would win. Utzon paid $6.90 top tote around the country, and put plenty of Christmas cheer into the pockets of our members.
PASS has now given out 37 selections to our members, of which 20 have been winners, with 13 other placegetters. The average winning price of these runners has been $2.68 giving members a return on investment at level stakes of 44.85%.
If you would like to enjoy the success of being a successful and profitable punter, then please contact us here profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will show you how to become a part of the action.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Sunday, December 24, 2006
Sunday, December 17, 2006
A Very Successful Weekend For PASS Members
PASS members were given a total of 6 selections over this weekend. Four of these selections won, one ran second and one ran third. So a very successful and profitable weekend.
PASS members were informed this morning that Beat The Traffic in Race 6 at Ballarat would be extremely hard to beat. All his dangers had drawn wide barriers and PASS members were informed this would give Beat The Traffic the gun run in the race. The race panned out exactly to plan, and Beat The Traffic stormed home to win comfortably. Top tote was $5.90, and the very kind people at IAS paid us $6.13.
The other three winners this weekend supplied to our members were Hunters Host, Snipers Bullet & Imagining.
As we indicated in our last article, patience is required before you find a good priced winner. Keep backing the good things, and the juicy odds winner will arrive in time. Slowly build your bank and you will be rewarded.
This takes our statistics to 29 selections overall, for 15 winners, 6 seconds and one third. That is a winning strike rate of 51.7%, along with an average winning price of $2.66. This gives our members a profit on investment at level stakes of 37.52%.
And, we have a good thing for tomorrow at Pakenham. If you would like to be informed of tomorrow's winner as well as all the information supplied to our members, please contact us here at PASS profselections@austarnet.com.au and you can enjoy the winning feeling.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
PASS members were informed this morning that Beat The Traffic in Race 6 at Ballarat would be extremely hard to beat. All his dangers had drawn wide barriers and PASS members were informed this would give Beat The Traffic the gun run in the race. The race panned out exactly to plan, and Beat The Traffic stormed home to win comfortably. Top tote was $5.90, and the very kind people at IAS paid us $6.13.
The other three winners this weekend supplied to our members were Hunters Host, Snipers Bullet & Imagining.
As we indicated in our last article, patience is required before you find a good priced winner. Keep backing the good things, and the juicy odds winner will arrive in time. Slowly build your bank and you will be rewarded.
This takes our statistics to 29 selections overall, for 15 winners, 6 seconds and one third. That is a winning strike rate of 51.7%, along with an average winning price of $2.66. This gives our members a profit on investment at level stakes of 37.52%.
And, we have a good thing for tomorrow at Pakenham. If you would like to be informed of tomorrow's winner as well as all the information supplied to our members, please contact us here at PASS profselections@austarnet.com.au and you can enjoy the winning feeling.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
PASS Statistics Update
We have been operating now for three weeks and it is probably appropriate to complete an overview of our statistics thus far.
There have been 26 selections in this period, for 13 winners, 5 seconds and a third. That gives us a 50% winning Strike Rate. Our average winning price has been $2.49 giving us a Return On Investment 24.5% using level stakes.
After a blazing start nailing 5 winners in our first 5 selections, and 6 from the first 9, winners have been a little hard to find. Our goal here is to maintain a winning strike rate of over 50%, with an average winning price of over $2.50, thus ensuring member a consistent profit rate of over 25% at level stakes. This profit will improve if a more benficial staking plan is used.
Although we are close to being within the range of our goals, there is always improvement to be found. Our last 4 winners have all been $2.00 or under. Now this assists the winning strike rate but is a major detraction to our average winning price. So we will be attempting to find a few winners at good each way odds for our members.
We will continue to select the good things, however what we will endeavour to do is select a value runner as often as possible. As always, selections will be horses that are fit and in form. We will not select horses first up from a spell, nor will we select horses that drawn a poor barrier. Selections will always be trained by a well known, in form trainer, and will be ridden by jockeys who make fewer mistakes than than most. Our selections will also be for horses that are experienced at the distance and track conditions of the day. And we will not be making selections on rain affected tracks.
Yesterday we had three selections for two winners, Imagining & Snipers Bullet. Both were short odds but lived up to that expectation. We have given out three selections for our members for todays racing, one will be at nice each way odds.
We welcome any feedback from either existing members or potential members.
profselection@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
There have been 26 selections in this period, for 13 winners, 5 seconds and a third. That gives us a 50% winning Strike Rate. Our average winning price has been $2.49 giving us a Return On Investment 24.5% using level stakes.
After a blazing start nailing 5 winners in our first 5 selections, and 6 from the first 9, winners have been a little hard to find. Our goal here is to maintain a winning strike rate of over 50%, with an average winning price of over $2.50, thus ensuring member a consistent profit rate of over 25% at level stakes. This profit will improve if a more benficial staking plan is used.
Although we are close to being within the range of our goals, there is always improvement to be found. Our last 4 winners have all been $2.00 or under. Now this assists the winning strike rate but is a major detraction to our average winning price. So we will be attempting to find a few winners at good each way odds for our members.
We will continue to select the good things, however what we will endeavour to do is select a value runner as often as possible. As always, selections will be horses that are fit and in form. We will not select horses first up from a spell, nor will we select horses that drawn a poor barrier. Selections will always be trained by a well known, in form trainer, and will be ridden by jockeys who make fewer mistakes than than most. Our selections will also be for horses that are experienced at the distance and track conditions of the day. And we will not be making selections on rain affected tracks.
Yesterday we had three selections for two winners, Imagining & Snipers Bullet. Both were short odds but lived up to that expectation. We have given out three selections for our members for todays racing, one will be at nice each way odds.
We welcome any feedback from either existing members or potential members.
profselection@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Friday, December 8, 2006
How To Approach Your Punting
Following on from our article earlier in the week that looked at the basic selection process, what we would like to do today is look at what should be done before even having a bet is considered.
A basic approach should be very organised. You must be comfortable with three important facets. Where you are going to place your bets to get the best value, bankroll management & recording your statistics.
Let's take bankroll management first because you can't have a bet if you don't have any money. As indicated in our original article, you should only bet what you can afford to lose. So work out what is a comfortable bank for you to start with and keep that bank separate from all your day to day money. The best way to this is to open an account with an agency. That way not only is your punting money out of the way, it is also not easy to get at to spend on other things. You then have to organise a staking plan that suits your bank.
Okay so let's look at a few examples. Say you are comfortable with placing $1,000 in your punting bank. You then must work out what percentage of that bank you are comfortable to bet with. Most professionals bet around 2-2.5% of their bank for each bet. PASS bets 5% on each bet. If you use this level staking plan at 5% it will take you 20 losers to run out of money. Now, if you have 20 successive losers, then you have a major issue with your selection process, not with your staking plan. PASS usually has a losing streak of between 5 and 8 losers once a month, longest losing streak on record is 13, so 20 bets covers this comfortably. So we suggest your start with a set bank, and punt 5% at a level stakes and monitor this after a month and see how you are fairing. You can then tweak it a little either way in percentage, or alter the staking plan a little. PASS takes 5% of the starting bank every day, and bets that stake on every runner that day. The next day we calculate 5% of the new bank and use that as our wager for the day. When we get to 10% above our starting bank, we withdraw funds down to the original bank, and commence the process again. So, if we started with $1,000, when we get to $1,100, we withdraw $100 and go back to betting $20 per bet on the next day. This way you have plenty to cover any losing streak that hits you, and they will hit we promise. And you also know exactly when to withdraw funds so as not to ruin your punting bank.
There are various staking plans that can be used. Some are quite cut throat in that you increase your bets until you back a winner and get in front. You require an extremely good winning strike rate for these staking plans, a strike rate of well over 50%. You can increase in increments of 5% or even 10%, but if a long losing streak hits, these are fraught with danger and your bank will diminish very quickly.
One of the simplest staking plans is to start with say, $1,000. Bet a level stake of 5% until you reach $1,500. Then increase you stake to 5% of $1500 and bet that amount until you reach $2,000, then increase you stake to 5% of $2,000 and bet that until you get to $2500. When you reach $3,000, double your original bank, withdraw $2,000 and start again. As long as you consistently win and your winning strike rate is high, this is a practicle and conservative way to profit.
Now we know what we have as a starting bank & a staking plan, the next item to put into place is a stringent recording system for keeping your statistics. Every bet must be recorded. There are no "fun" bets. Every bet must be compatible with your staking plan, and each bet must come out if your punting bank only. This should make it easy for you to record every bet. Record where the bet was, how much you outlayed, where the horse finished, what it paid if it won, and how much you won on the bet. At PASS we complete a daily total of outgoings and incomings. And at the end of the month, we tally up to work out profit/loss for that month. We work on the racing calendar year and show profit/loss for every year. Use the calendar year if you are more comfortable with that, or even the financial year. Doesn't matter which, the important thing is to record every bet, and know exactly how you are fairing at any stage of a day, month or year.
We started recording our bets over 15 years ago, and in all seriousness, it is the single most important factor that turned our punting around into profit. If you don't know how many winners or losers you are backing, you don't know if you are a good punter or a poor one. And I assure you all, most punters are losers, not only don't know know it, but certainly will never admit to it. Recording bets does not help you back winners, but it does tell you more about your punting than anything else will. You can tell how much you outlayed for a certain period, how much you returned, how many winners you backed, and how many losers. What your average winning price was and what you Profit On Investment was. All these pieces of information will help you adjust your punting so you can show a profit. You will be able to see when losing streaks occur, and what to do to stop them. Most losing punters find they bet more when losing to try to recoup losses. When a losing streak occurs, maybe you have to reduce your bets until your selection process gets itself back on track. If you don't record every bet, you will never know how long the losing streak is, how badly it is affecting your bank and how to adjust to rectify the situation. If you have every staistic at your fingertips, you will be able to identify what is going wrond, and what you have to do to turn it around.
Now you have a bank, and you have an excell spread sheet or exercise book to record your bets, where are you going to place your bets to maximise your profits. Most people head off to the local TAB where they take out from 14.5% of every bet before a return is even thought about. So every winner you back, you are down 14.5% of your outlay before the race is run. If you play trifectas, quinella or quaddies, the takeout is closer to 20%. PASS would lose every year if we lost 20% before the race was even run. So how do we overcome the TAB takeouts? We use alternatives to TAB's.
The best way to beat the totes is to go to the track and use bookmakers. They will give you a fixed odds price, with no 14.5% or 20% takeout. If you can't get to the track, then the next best alternative is to use Corporate Bookies, or Betfair. There are plenty of corporate bookies that offer great deals. They offer fixed prices, starting prices, top fluctuations as wll as top tote odds. Some even offer an extra percentage on top of top tote prices, which gives the punter an added advantage. There are many corporate bookies, PASS predominantly uses IAS, Sportingbet and Centre Racing. However, Sportsbet, Austote & Betfair are all acceptable. One word of warning is to spread your bank around amongst several of them, because some bookies do close accounts of consistent winners. And if you do consistently win, make regular withdrawals.All these alternatives are easily accessible on the internet, please contact us here if you have difficulty finding any of them.
In summary, work out what you can afford to lose, and use that as a separate punting bank. Formulate a staking plan that suits yourself and your bank and stick to it rigidly. Record every bet, large, small, serious or fun and continue keep stringent statistics of all bets. And use alternative betting agencies to TAB's to reduce takeouts.
Now you are ready to start punting. You have a bank, you have a staking plan, you have the technology to record every bet, and you have accounts with organisations that will maximise your profits. All you need now is to find a few winners, and we will point everyone in the right direction in future articles.
If you would like more information on anything we have discussed here, staking plans, banks, recording statistics or alternative betting agencies send us an email to profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will be glad to assist further.
Good luck and profitable punting.
A basic approach should be very organised. You must be comfortable with three important facets. Where you are going to place your bets to get the best value, bankroll management & recording your statistics.
Let's take bankroll management first because you can't have a bet if you don't have any money. As indicated in our original article, you should only bet what you can afford to lose. So work out what is a comfortable bank for you to start with and keep that bank separate from all your day to day money. The best way to this is to open an account with an agency. That way not only is your punting money out of the way, it is also not easy to get at to spend on other things. You then have to organise a staking plan that suits your bank.
Okay so let's look at a few examples. Say you are comfortable with placing $1,000 in your punting bank. You then must work out what percentage of that bank you are comfortable to bet with. Most professionals bet around 2-2.5% of their bank for each bet. PASS bets 5% on each bet. If you use this level staking plan at 5% it will take you 20 losers to run out of money. Now, if you have 20 successive losers, then you have a major issue with your selection process, not with your staking plan. PASS usually has a losing streak of between 5 and 8 losers once a month, longest losing streak on record is 13, so 20 bets covers this comfortably. So we suggest your start with a set bank, and punt 5% at a level stakes and monitor this after a month and see how you are fairing. You can then tweak it a little either way in percentage, or alter the staking plan a little. PASS takes 5% of the starting bank every day, and bets that stake on every runner that day. The next day we calculate 5% of the new bank and use that as our wager for the day. When we get to 10% above our starting bank, we withdraw funds down to the original bank, and commence the process again. So, if we started with $1,000, when we get to $1,100, we withdraw $100 and go back to betting $20 per bet on the next day. This way you have plenty to cover any losing streak that hits you, and they will hit we promise. And you also know exactly when to withdraw funds so as not to ruin your punting bank.
There are various staking plans that can be used. Some are quite cut throat in that you increase your bets until you back a winner and get in front. You require an extremely good winning strike rate for these staking plans, a strike rate of well over 50%. You can increase in increments of 5% or even 10%, but if a long losing streak hits, these are fraught with danger and your bank will diminish very quickly.
One of the simplest staking plans is to start with say, $1,000. Bet a level stake of 5% until you reach $1,500. Then increase you stake to 5% of $1500 and bet that amount until you reach $2,000, then increase you stake to 5% of $2,000 and bet that until you get to $2500. When you reach $3,000, double your original bank, withdraw $2,000 and start again. As long as you consistently win and your winning strike rate is high, this is a practicle and conservative way to profit.
Now we know what we have as a starting bank & a staking plan, the next item to put into place is a stringent recording system for keeping your statistics. Every bet must be recorded. There are no "fun" bets. Every bet must be compatible with your staking plan, and each bet must come out if your punting bank only. This should make it easy for you to record every bet. Record where the bet was, how much you outlayed, where the horse finished, what it paid if it won, and how much you won on the bet. At PASS we complete a daily total of outgoings and incomings. And at the end of the month, we tally up to work out profit/loss for that month. We work on the racing calendar year and show profit/loss for every year. Use the calendar year if you are more comfortable with that, or even the financial year. Doesn't matter which, the important thing is to record every bet, and know exactly how you are fairing at any stage of a day, month or year.
We started recording our bets over 15 years ago, and in all seriousness, it is the single most important factor that turned our punting around into profit. If you don't know how many winners or losers you are backing, you don't know if you are a good punter or a poor one. And I assure you all, most punters are losers, not only don't know know it, but certainly will never admit to it. Recording bets does not help you back winners, but it does tell you more about your punting than anything else will. You can tell how much you outlayed for a certain period, how much you returned, how many winners you backed, and how many losers. What your average winning price was and what you Profit On Investment was. All these pieces of information will help you adjust your punting so you can show a profit. You will be able to see when losing streaks occur, and what to do to stop them. Most losing punters find they bet more when losing to try to recoup losses. When a losing streak occurs, maybe you have to reduce your bets until your selection process gets itself back on track. If you don't record every bet, you will never know how long the losing streak is, how badly it is affecting your bank and how to adjust to rectify the situation. If you have every staistic at your fingertips, you will be able to identify what is going wrond, and what you have to do to turn it around.
Now you have a bank, and you have an excell spread sheet or exercise book to record your bets, where are you going to place your bets to maximise your profits. Most people head off to the local TAB where they take out from 14.5% of every bet before a return is even thought about. So every winner you back, you are down 14.5% of your outlay before the race is run. If you play trifectas, quinella or quaddies, the takeout is closer to 20%. PASS would lose every year if we lost 20% before the race was even run. So how do we overcome the TAB takeouts? We use alternatives to TAB's.
The best way to beat the totes is to go to the track and use bookmakers. They will give you a fixed odds price, with no 14.5% or 20% takeout. If you can't get to the track, then the next best alternative is to use Corporate Bookies, or Betfair. There are plenty of corporate bookies that offer great deals. They offer fixed prices, starting prices, top fluctuations as wll as top tote odds. Some even offer an extra percentage on top of top tote prices, which gives the punter an added advantage. There are many corporate bookies, PASS predominantly uses IAS, Sportingbet and Centre Racing. However, Sportsbet, Austote & Betfair are all acceptable. One word of warning is to spread your bank around amongst several of them, because some bookies do close accounts of consistent winners. And if you do consistently win, make regular withdrawals.All these alternatives are easily accessible on the internet, please contact us here if you have difficulty finding any of them.
In summary, work out what you can afford to lose, and use that as a separate punting bank. Formulate a staking plan that suits yourself and your bank and stick to it rigidly. Record every bet, large, small, serious or fun and continue keep stringent statistics of all bets. And use alternative betting agencies to TAB's to reduce takeouts.
Now you are ready to start punting. You have a bank, you have a staking plan, you have the technology to record every bet, and you have accounts with organisations that will maximise your profits. All you need now is to find a few winners, and we will point everyone in the right direction in future articles.
If you would like more information on anything we have discussed here, staking plans, banks, recording statistics or alternative betting agencies send us an email to profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will be glad to assist further.
Good luck and profitable punting.
Wednesday, December 6, 2006
Imagining
PASS members were treated to watching a very promising mare today at Sandown. Imagining gave nothing else a chance in race 2 after Michael Rodd gave the 4yo mare a lovely run behind the speed. He gave her full bore at the 400m and she sprinted past her rivals to win easing up by around 4 lengths. Corporate bookmakers were quite generous in paying top tote odds of $2.20. The win indicated Imagination is a mare with a lot of ability who will win better races than the one she contested today.
Imagining is by Flying Spur from Oaks winner Episode, so she is bred in the purple. She won over 1600m today, and she will be even better suited when she gets up over longer distances in the future.
Michael Rodd is enjoying a great association with the Lloyd Williams team in recent times. He is the stable rider now, and Imagining gave him an early riding/stable double after Embark won the first race comfortably at Sandown. Michael is a lovely bloke, and a very accomplished jockey, and we feel sure he will have continued success in Melbourne.
If you would like to stop imagining what it's like to back winners, then contact us here at PASS at profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will assist you to become a member. The best way to enjoy punting is to back winners, and we will provide the information necessary for you to achieve this.
Good luck and profitable punting.
Imagining is by Flying Spur from Oaks winner Episode, so she is bred in the purple. She won over 1600m today, and she will be even better suited when she gets up over longer distances in the future.
Michael Rodd is enjoying a great association with the Lloyd Williams team in recent times. He is the stable rider now, and Imagining gave him an early riding/stable double after Embark won the first race comfortably at Sandown. Michael is a lovely bloke, and a very accomplished jockey, and we feel sure he will have continued success in Melbourne.
If you would like to stop imagining what it's like to back winners, then contact us here at PASS at profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will assist you to become a member. The best way to enjoy punting is to back winners, and we will provide the information necessary for you to achieve this.
Good luck and profitable punting.
Monday, December 4, 2006
Race Day Selection Process
Last week we covered some basic standard rules to adopt before we start to punt. This week we will cover the important facets of form study we take into consideration when making a race day selection. Following this we will break them all down into separate categories, and concentrate on them one by one in indiviual articles.
Without trying to state the obvious time should be spent looking at:-
Type of race
Recent form
Form over todays distance
Form at todays track
Jockey, Trainer & Barrier
Class of the race
Weight being carried
Pace of the race
Stewards Reports/Videos
Track & weather conditions
Possible track bias
Firstly, an accurate form guide that gives all the information that is required to make a sound assessment. There are plenty of free form guides available on the internet for Australian horse racing. The more preferable ones are supplied by sites such as Expertform, Racenet, RSB (Victorian Racing site), AAP Racing & Sports, Queensland Racing & WATC Racing Information Service. All provide an adequate coverage, and all are free of charge. Publications such as The Sportsman are also excellent form guides and provide almost all information required.
Basically what we are doing when we assess the form of a race is to predict the outcome of events. And to do this we require as much information about every aspect of each runner, the track, the weather conditions etc to be able to perform this task. It is not easy to predict the outcome, but it can be done with reasonable accuracy if time is taken to look at all aspects. What we find, is that it is not too difficult to find plenty of winners, it is restricting the amount of losers which is the hard part.
With so much racing around the country in this day & age, it would be easy to go broke very quickly betting on every horse race that is covered by TAB's and corporate bookies. Therefore the next most important issue is which races to concentrate on. The best races to bet on are ones where the form is well exposed and most or all the horses entered have recent form to assess. So we usually discount maiden races, and races over distances of less than 1200m because we find too many horses either having their first start in a race, or first up from a spell. We also rarely bet on races at distances further than 1800m, as it can be very hard to assess the pace of the race, and horses can jump grades very quickly in distance races without surprising. We also look unfavourably on races restricted to Fillies & Mares, as some of these equines can be prone to put in a poor run here and there. So predominantly, we look at Class 1 races or better, over distances of 1200m -1800m. Now that stops plenty of bets each week for a starter. If there are still too many races for consideration, concentrate on one state, and that state only for a while until comfortable the extra races to look at wone be a burden on time resources.
When assessing the form it is imperative to look closely at every runner in the race, not just the first 3-4 in the weights. It is very easy to overlook a horse who last three runs have been 907, but there may be some extenuating circumstances as to why the horse performed poorly. The horse may have been racing over unsuitable distances, drawn wide barriers, been ridden poorly, copped a bad check, or even all of the above. Look at every horses form, but in seriousness, only consider those with solid recent form, or solid form over todays distance or at todays track.
Unless a horse is in outstanding form, concentrate punting on well known, experienced trainers and jockeys who consistently win races. Look for trainers & jockeys with good winning strike rates, expecially good winning strike rates at todays track and distance. And winning combinations like Hawkes/Beadman, Moody/Nolen, Freedman/Oliver should also be taken into consideration. We keep a list of trainers & jockeys who we will back, and those we won't. Stick to the list rigidly, unless you see a marked improvement in one on the banned list, or a degeneration of one on the positive list. The better more experienced trainers place their horses more favourably, and the better more experienced jockeys make fewer mstakes during the running of a race. Trainers & jockeys are like horses, they have good runs and losing runs which punters must be aware of. Some trainers, like a Paul Cave, Jim Leek jnr, Eric Musgrove, are far better trainers of stayers than sprinters, so you may have to have another list to make allowances for these types of trainers.
And we don't back horses starting from wide barriers. Usually outside about 6 or 7, but that is determined by the number of runners in the race. Smaller fields, say up to 6 or 7, barriers should play a lesser role, but in fields of 18-20, barriers are very important, especially if there is only a short run to the first turn. So be aware of all track maps of every track punting is intended.
Ensure the horse being considered is in the right class of race, and if not, whether any weight advantage or disadvantage is applied. Horses can win out of their class with a lower weight, but they may also be incapable of performing well in their own class if they too much weight. Big strong horses can carry big weights, whereas smaller not so robust horses have trouble with bigger weights. If a horse has carried weight to victory in the past, it is reasonable to assume he can do it again. As a rule, however, it is rare for us to back a horse that is more than 4kg over the limit weight. There are exceptional circumstances in that regard and it is not a rule of thumb, but should be used a guide, especially in distance races. Try to ignore horses jumping from a maiden win to Class 2, 3 or higher, they rarely win unless they are exceptional.
Always have a picture in your mind (or even draw a diagram if that is easier) as to how the race will be run. Who will lead, will there be pace from outside barriers, will a couple drop back from wide barriers? Plenty of questions can be asked, but get a clear picture in your mind that your selection is going to get the run needed to win the race. If the horse gets a long way back, will there anough pace on for it to run on strongly? But most importantly, which horse will get the easiest run in the race. In behind the speed, waiting to pounce in the straight, that is where you want your horse to be. With horse racing so even these days, luck in running, and getting the cushiest run determines the outcome of most races. Make sure your selection is the one who can get the gun run.
Try to read Stewards Reports to see which runners in races had no luck at their previous outing, and could improve today. Obtain videos too if possible and watch past races. See who was impressive and won easing up without being pressuered by the jockey. Which horses didn't get a clear run in the straight and should have finished closer, which horse had a wide run from a poor alley whose run should be forgotten. And which horse had the easy run in behind the speed, but was not good enough to win. Watching videos, and reading Stewards Reports will give you a much clearer picture of the real chances in todays race.
Arguably, the most important facet is weather & track conditions, and any track bias. It is very rare for us to punt on tracks worse than dead. Form is all over the place, especially if all or most horses have been performing recently on rain affected tracks. Make sure the predominant weather pattern for the day is known. It may be Fine/Good at 8:30am in the morning, however if a storm hits at midday, 25mm of rain is dumped on the course, then this changes the perpsective of every race on the program. Preferably, place your bets as late as possible so you are aware of any change in track conditions, but is this is not possible, then be aware if a storm or rain due. Most courses you can reasonably assess prior to a meeting if the track favours on pace horses or run on horses. Tracks like Randwick, Rosehill, Eagle Farm & Flemington are usually considered very fair and horses cna win from anywhere. But some city tracks, like Canterbury, Moonee Valley or Warwick Farm, can assist on pace runners. And a lot of country tracks with short straights, certainly play toward fron runners. Again, seek out track maps and know the layouts.
Track bias is a controversial aspect of todays horse racing. Most course curators deny it exists, even some commentators refuse to admit it exists. Believe us, it does, and always will due to the high volume of racing in this day and age. Watch a few races before having a bet if you are unsure. The best races to assess any bias, are races over distances between 1200m and 1600m. 1000m dashes usually lean to leaders winning in any case, and races over 2000m or more usually lean themselves to back markers depedning on the pace of the race. So be aware of this when assessing any bias on the day.
So there is certainly plenty to think about when assessing a race. Allocate plenty of time, don't rush your assessments, look at every runner & every aspect, and utilise every bit of information you can find. We will dissect these facets individually in more detail as the weeks progress.
You can never know too much, and you can always learn more.
Feedback on these articles are welcome to profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting.
Without trying to state the obvious time should be spent looking at:-
Type of race
Recent form
Form over todays distance
Form at todays track
Jockey, Trainer & Barrier
Class of the race
Weight being carried
Pace of the race
Stewards Reports/Videos
Track & weather conditions
Possible track bias
Firstly, an accurate form guide that gives all the information that is required to make a sound assessment. There are plenty of free form guides available on the internet for Australian horse racing. The more preferable ones are supplied by sites such as Expertform, Racenet, RSB (Victorian Racing site), AAP Racing & Sports, Queensland Racing & WATC Racing Information Service. All provide an adequate coverage, and all are free of charge. Publications such as The Sportsman are also excellent form guides and provide almost all information required.
Basically what we are doing when we assess the form of a race is to predict the outcome of events. And to do this we require as much information about every aspect of each runner, the track, the weather conditions etc to be able to perform this task. It is not easy to predict the outcome, but it can be done with reasonable accuracy if time is taken to look at all aspects. What we find, is that it is not too difficult to find plenty of winners, it is restricting the amount of losers which is the hard part.
With so much racing around the country in this day & age, it would be easy to go broke very quickly betting on every horse race that is covered by TAB's and corporate bookies. Therefore the next most important issue is which races to concentrate on. The best races to bet on are ones where the form is well exposed and most or all the horses entered have recent form to assess. So we usually discount maiden races, and races over distances of less than 1200m because we find too many horses either having their first start in a race, or first up from a spell. We also rarely bet on races at distances further than 1800m, as it can be very hard to assess the pace of the race, and horses can jump grades very quickly in distance races without surprising. We also look unfavourably on races restricted to Fillies & Mares, as some of these equines can be prone to put in a poor run here and there. So predominantly, we look at Class 1 races or better, over distances of 1200m -1800m. Now that stops plenty of bets each week for a starter. If there are still too many races for consideration, concentrate on one state, and that state only for a while until comfortable the extra races to look at wone be a burden on time resources.
When assessing the form it is imperative to look closely at every runner in the race, not just the first 3-4 in the weights. It is very easy to overlook a horse who last three runs have been 907, but there may be some extenuating circumstances as to why the horse performed poorly. The horse may have been racing over unsuitable distances, drawn wide barriers, been ridden poorly, copped a bad check, or even all of the above. Look at every horses form, but in seriousness, only consider those with solid recent form, or solid form over todays distance or at todays track.
Unless a horse is in outstanding form, concentrate punting on well known, experienced trainers and jockeys who consistently win races. Look for trainers & jockeys with good winning strike rates, expecially good winning strike rates at todays track and distance. And winning combinations like Hawkes/Beadman, Moody/Nolen, Freedman/Oliver should also be taken into consideration. We keep a list of trainers & jockeys who we will back, and those we won't. Stick to the list rigidly, unless you see a marked improvement in one on the banned list, or a degeneration of one on the positive list. The better more experienced trainers place their horses more favourably, and the better more experienced jockeys make fewer mstakes during the running of a race. Trainers & jockeys are like horses, they have good runs and losing runs which punters must be aware of. Some trainers, like a Paul Cave, Jim Leek jnr, Eric Musgrove, are far better trainers of stayers than sprinters, so you may have to have another list to make allowances for these types of trainers.
And we don't back horses starting from wide barriers. Usually outside about 6 or 7, but that is determined by the number of runners in the race. Smaller fields, say up to 6 or 7, barriers should play a lesser role, but in fields of 18-20, barriers are very important, especially if there is only a short run to the first turn. So be aware of all track maps of every track punting is intended.
Ensure the horse being considered is in the right class of race, and if not, whether any weight advantage or disadvantage is applied. Horses can win out of their class with a lower weight, but they may also be incapable of performing well in their own class if they too much weight. Big strong horses can carry big weights, whereas smaller not so robust horses have trouble with bigger weights. If a horse has carried weight to victory in the past, it is reasonable to assume he can do it again. As a rule, however, it is rare for us to back a horse that is more than 4kg over the limit weight. There are exceptional circumstances in that regard and it is not a rule of thumb, but should be used a guide, especially in distance races. Try to ignore horses jumping from a maiden win to Class 2, 3 or higher, they rarely win unless they are exceptional.
Always have a picture in your mind (or even draw a diagram if that is easier) as to how the race will be run. Who will lead, will there be pace from outside barriers, will a couple drop back from wide barriers? Plenty of questions can be asked, but get a clear picture in your mind that your selection is going to get the run needed to win the race. If the horse gets a long way back, will there anough pace on for it to run on strongly? But most importantly, which horse will get the easiest run in the race. In behind the speed, waiting to pounce in the straight, that is where you want your horse to be. With horse racing so even these days, luck in running, and getting the cushiest run determines the outcome of most races. Make sure your selection is the one who can get the gun run.
Try to read Stewards Reports to see which runners in races had no luck at their previous outing, and could improve today. Obtain videos too if possible and watch past races. See who was impressive and won easing up without being pressuered by the jockey. Which horses didn't get a clear run in the straight and should have finished closer, which horse had a wide run from a poor alley whose run should be forgotten. And which horse had the easy run in behind the speed, but was not good enough to win. Watching videos, and reading Stewards Reports will give you a much clearer picture of the real chances in todays race.
Arguably, the most important facet is weather & track conditions, and any track bias. It is very rare for us to punt on tracks worse than dead. Form is all over the place, especially if all or most horses have been performing recently on rain affected tracks. Make sure the predominant weather pattern for the day is known. It may be Fine/Good at 8:30am in the morning, however if a storm hits at midday, 25mm of rain is dumped on the course, then this changes the perpsective of every race on the program. Preferably, place your bets as late as possible so you are aware of any change in track conditions, but is this is not possible, then be aware if a storm or rain due. Most courses you can reasonably assess prior to a meeting if the track favours on pace horses or run on horses. Tracks like Randwick, Rosehill, Eagle Farm & Flemington are usually considered very fair and horses cna win from anywhere. But some city tracks, like Canterbury, Moonee Valley or Warwick Farm, can assist on pace runners. And a lot of country tracks with short straights, certainly play toward fron runners. Again, seek out track maps and know the layouts.
Track bias is a controversial aspect of todays horse racing. Most course curators deny it exists, even some commentators refuse to admit it exists. Believe us, it does, and always will due to the high volume of racing in this day and age. Watch a few races before having a bet if you are unsure. The best races to assess any bias, are races over distances between 1200m and 1600m. 1000m dashes usually lean to leaders winning in any case, and races over 2000m or more usually lean themselves to back markers depedning on the pace of the race. So be aware of this when assessing any bias on the day.
So there is certainly plenty to think about when assessing a race. Allocate plenty of time, don't rush your assessments, look at every runner & every aspect, and utilise every bit of information you can find. We will dissect these facets individually in more detail as the weeks progress.
You can never know too much, and you can always learn more.
Feedback on these articles are welcome to profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting.
Weekend Washup
A pretty poor result for PASS members over the weekend. All together we provided five selections for one winner and one second. There were also two "Horses To Follow" who raced, both finished third.
Of our selections, only Street Smart would be worth backing again. She got too far back in the field, probably one of Jim Byrne's more poorly judged ride. Byrne gave the mare little chance of winning, as she was still about 8 lengths behind the leaders on straightening. She finsihed strongly, although never looking a winning possibility, to be beaten around a length. A good effort with the weight she carried.
I would not suggest we back any of the other horses we selected again, unless they improve dramatically at future runs.
The only outstanding performance I saw over the weekend was at Moonee Valley on Friday night. In race 3 a horse from the Tony Vasil stable debuted named Lucky Secret. The 3yo gelding burnt out of the barriers and led easily, and was never looked like being run down. He won being eased down by 4 lengths in slick time and earmarked himself as a potential group winner. He will probably be very short in his next couple of runs, but place him in your black books and in 6-12 months time, we might see him at juicy odds in a nice race, where he will be quite backable.
Good luck and profitable punting.
Evan Robinson
profselections@austarnet.com.au
Of our selections, only Street Smart would be worth backing again. She got too far back in the field, probably one of Jim Byrne's more poorly judged ride. Byrne gave the mare little chance of winning, as she was still about 8 lengths behind the leaders on straightening. She finsihed strongly, although never looking a winning possibility, to be beaten around a length. A good effort with the weight she carried.
I would not suggest we back any of the other horses we selected again, unless they improve dramatically at future runs.
The only outstanding performance I saw over the weekend was at Moonee Valley on Friday night. In race 3 a horse from the Tony Vasil stable debuted named Lucky Secret. The 3yo gelding burnt out of the barriers and led easily, and was never looked like being run down. He won being eased down by 4 lengths in slick time and earmarked himself as a potential group winner. He will probably be very short in his next couple of runs, but place him in your black books and in 6-12 months time, we might see him at juicy odds in a nice race, where he will be quite backable.
Good luck and profitable punting.
Evan Robinson
profselections@austarnet.com.au
Friday, December 1, 2006
Ratings Based Handicap Racing
From today, December 1, 2006, Ratings Based Handicap races are being introduced on a trial basis in NSW and Victoria. Basically this means, every horse will be allocated a rating after every run and will be able to be entered into RB races that their rating is included.
What it means is, an older horse that is out of form, will lose ratings points and go down in grades to give him an opportunity to win another race. An overview of this can be seen at the following URL:-
http://www.risa.com.au/Rating_Based_Info.htm
You can also obtain specific information about both NSW and Victorian RB programming from this web page.
So, what does it all mean. Especially for the poor punter who is always trying to find that elusive winner. To be perfectly frank, I am not too sure, and will have to watch races very closely over the next few months to ascertain if a distinct pattern or change in performances is occurring. We will give a few thoughts here for readers to ponder.
The main reason for this change, is to increase field sizes, and thus increasing TAB betting turnover. More TAB betting turnover means more money for the race clubs, and I certainly do not begrudge them that. I do however question the motivation that the only reason for change is to increase betting turnover.
What will hapen in these races, is you will see an older open class handicapper, racing against young up & coming lower class horses. What also may happen, is if a certain horse has reached his mark, he cannot get out of his current grade because he is just not good enough. So the trainer will hope the horse gets beaten by big margins to hopefully decrease his rating so he can get him into a more suitable race. Maybe the horse will be encouraged not to perform on his merits in the hope his ratings will be decreased.
So the washup of this will be that some beaten margins as published in form guides, will show a horse was beaten, say 10 lengths at his most recent start, when the beaten margin probably should have been 3 lengths. Now this is going to turn upside down ratings and form predictability for punters. It will also provide form reversals that are totally unpredictable. And what punters want is integrity & predictability so they can back winners. Successful punters are successful because they are able to predict with regular accuracy the result of the race. If they don't have accurate facts before the race, predicting the outcome will be a far more difficult task.
Attempting to predict form reversals is fraut with danger. Punters who back horses with form 000 in the vain hope they back a 100/1 winner are just giving away money. Most punters prefer to assess form and line each runner's form up and reach an accurate conclusion as to the result. Hong Kong use a ratings based handicap system for race programming, and the form reversals there are nothing short of sensational. We have grave fears NSW & Victorian racing may head in a similar direction.
Field sizes have always been an issue of ours when trying to predict a result. To state the obvious, it is much easier to predit a result of a horse race with 6 runners, as opposed to a horse race with 18 runners. Obviously because, barriers will play a far lesser role, as will luck in running and the jockeys ability to secure the bets run. So with larger field sizes, it would be fair to say right now, PASS will be having less bets than before. Especially in the embryonic stages of this new system while we assess the races in question. And if field sizes do increase and remain consistently larger, then we will be having far less bets in the long term.
Another major point is how accurate are the ratings that are being given to each horse by the relevant authorities? There are hundreds of organisations selling ratings for horse racing. I have access to a few, although I don't use all of them as a base for my selections. On one race, 3 or 4 different ratings services can all come up a different result. Now I am knocking them, but which one do you believe? And why is the racing authorities ratings going to be more accurate than others?
And what about skull duggery? A trainer giving a horse a few "dead" runs to get it down in the ratings. A jockey easing up on a horse at the 200m so it gets beaten by a big margin to assist it geting down in the ratings. Authorities giving a trainer a favourable hearing and decreasing a horses ratings, or authorities taking a set against another trianer because of a past misdemeanor and increasing his horses ratings to make it hard for him. There are hundreds of similar situations if you think about it. Oh, sorry, none of that actually happens in the real world, does it?
At PASS, we are professional punters. We attempt to predict the outcome of horse races to make a profit, and we try to assist our members to achieve this. It is possible to consistently predict the outcome of races, and show a profit. But to do this you need to know as many facts as you can get your hands on to make these assessments as accurate as humanly possible. And combining all the rlevant facts will assist you to successfully predict the outcome of a horse race. This new system looks like it will not only make it more difficult to predict results, but with larger fields sizes make it more difficult for horse to win the right race.
We will watch with great interest over the coming months how this progresses and report back here. I urge all members and readers to watch video replays of as many races as possible, keep a close track on results to see if a lot of long price winners salute in these races, or the favourites win, or well supported horse that have been set up for the race win. There will be a pattern.
However with so many unknowns, it is envisaged PASS members will be having fewer bets. And that is not what the authorities wanted when they first devised this new programming system. They want increased turnover, not decreased.
Don't forget, if you would like to become a part of the successful membership team here at PASS, drop us an email to profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will help you to obtain all the information required to become a winning punter.
Good luck and profitable punting.
What it means is, an older horse that is out of form, will lose ratings points and go down in grades to give him an opportunity to win another race. An overview of this can be seen at the following URL:-
http://www.risa.com.au/Rating_Based_Info.htm
You can also obtain specific information about both NSW and Victorian RB programming from this web page.
So, what does it all mean. Especially for the poor punter who is always trying to find that elusive winner. To be perfectly frank, I am not too sure, and will have to watch races very closely over the next few months to ascertain if a distinct pattern or change in performances is occurring. We will give a few thoughts here for readers to ponder.
The main reason for this change, is to increase field sizes, and thus increasing TAB betting turnover. More TAB betting turnover means more money for the race clubs, and I certainly do not begrudge them that. I do however question the motivation that the only reason for change is to increase betting turnover.
What will hapen in these races, is you will see an older open class handicapper, racing against young up & coming lower class horses. What also may happen, is if a certain horse has reached his mark, he cannot get out of his current grade because he is just not good enough. So the trainer will hope the horse gets beaten by big margins to hopefully decrease his rating so he can get him into a more suitable race. Maybe the horse will be encouraged not to perform on his merits in the hope his ratings will be decreased.
So the washup of this will be that some beaten margins as published in form guides, will show a horse was beaten, say 10 lengths at his most recent start, when the beaten margin probably should have been 3 lengths. Now this is going to turn upside down ratings and form predictability for punters. It will also provide form reversals that are totally unpredictable. And what punters want is integrity & predictability so they can back winners. Successful punters are successful because they are able to predict with regular accuracy the result of the race. If they don't have accurate facts before the race, predicting the outcome will be a far more difficult task.
Attempting to predict form reversals is fraut with danger. Punters who back horses with form 000 in the vain hope they back a 100/1 winner are just giving away money. Most punters prefer to assess form and line each runner's form up and reach an accurate conclusion as to the result. Hong Kong use a ratings based handicap system for race programming, and the form reversals there are nothing short of sensational. We have grave fears NSW & Victorian racing may head in a similar direction.
Field sizes have always been an issue of ours when trying to predict a result. To state the obvious, it is much easier to predit a result of a horse race with 6 runners, as opposed to a horse race with 18 runners. Obviously because, barriers will play a far lesser role, as will luck in running and the jockeys ability to secure the bets run. So with larger field sizes, it would be fair to say right now, PASS will be having less bets than before. Especially in the embryonic stages of this new system while we assess the races in question. And if field sizes do increase and remain consistently larger, then we will be having far less bets in the long term.
Another major point is how accurate are the ratings that are being given to each horse by the relevant authorities? There are hundreds of organisations selling ratings for horse racing. I have access to a few, although I don't use all of them as a base for my selections. On one race, 3 or 4 different ratings services can all come up a different result. Now I am knocking them, but which one do you believe? And why is the racing authorities ratings going to be more accurate than others?
And what about skull duggery? A trainer giving a horse a few "dead" runs to get it down in the ratings. A jockey easing up on a horse at the 200m so it gets beaten by a big margin to assist it geting down in the ratings. Authorities giving a trainer a favourable hearing and decreasing a horses ratings, or authorities taking a set against another trianer because of a past misdemeanor and increasing his horses ratings to make it hard for him. There are hundreds of similar situations if you think about it. Oh, sorry, none of that actually happens in the real world, does it?
At PASS, we are professional punters. We attempt to predict the outcome of horse races to make a profit, and we try to assist our members to achieve this. It is possible to consistently predict the outcome of races, and show a profit. But to do this you need to know as many facts as you can get your hands on to make these assessments as accurate as humanly possible. And combining all the rlevant facts will assist you to successfully predict the outcome of a horse race. This new system looks like it will not only make it more difficult to predict results, but with larger fields sizes make it more difficult for horse to win the right race.
We will watch with great interest over the coming months how this progresses and report back here. I urge all members and readers to watch video replays of as many races as possible, keep a close track on results to see if a lot of long price winners salute in these races, or the favourites win, or well supported horse that have been set up for the race win. There will be a pattern.
However with so many unknowns, it is envisaged PASS members will be having fewer bets. And that is not what the authorities wanted when they first devised this new programming system. They want increased turnover, not decreased.
Don't forget, if you would like to become a part of the successful membership team here at PASS, drop us an email to profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will help you to obtain all the information required to become a winning punter.
Good luck and profitable punting.
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