We dearly wish we knew how the track will play prior to posting this, however we are not mind readers and cannot predict the future. Let's preface this by saying these are our thoughts before scratchings, track conditions, and any race bias is known.
Maribyrnong Plate
Always a tough affair with three first starters to worry about. Of what we have seen, Exceedingly Good is the one to beat, however we wouldn't be jumping in at the $2.10 on offer. He only beat Nato by 1.3 lengths, and he is $13 fixed odds at present, far better each way value. David Hayes has three runners, with Craig WIlliams on the filly Ballerina Girl which is a good lead as to his best hope in the race. She is around the $3.50 mark at present and would be backable at those odds or better. Hard to see any of the other raced division figuring, which leaves us with the Rick Hore-Lacey trained Commissioned, a General Nedym colt. The breed always race well fresh and Rick would not be starting the horse unless certain he was ready to win, look out for any solid market moves for him. We'll take the fave on here at the odds and at our own peril.
Carbine Club Stakes
Lee Freedman and Mick Price hold the key here. Freedman has put stable jockey Corey Brown on Teskara who was a nice winner two starts back at Geelong, that is a lead in itself. He ran a nice 3rd at Caulfield after that, however will need luck from barrier 11. Electromotive's form is outstanding. He beat Moreton Bay by over 2 lengths two starts back, and Moreton Bay has won 2 straight since in easy fashion. Then he beat a very strong field on Moe Cup day, had he drawn an alley tomorrow, he was the one to beat. We would think those two have the wood on Freedman's other runner Moment Of Truth, although he did beat the older gallopers leading all the way last start over the 1600m. Now, Mick Price's two runners will both go very close. Stable jockey Craig Newitt went to Kilmore to ride Rightfully Yours at his first start, only to be beaten by stablemate Sound Journey who has now won 3 on end in impressive fashion. He then beat a very strong field of maidens at Ballarat, and Newitt has chosen to ride him over stablemate Schilling who he rode to victory at Cranbourne over 1400m last start. Plenty of other chances in the race including Montonari and Blue Sky. We'll take the jockey's leads here and suggest Rightfully Yours and Teskara will fight out the race.
SAAB Quality (formerly the time honoured Hotham Handicap)
Last chance for this lot of one paced plodders to get into the Melbourne Cup. The Geelong Cup form should stand up here as the two who quinellad the race had the best form going in there. The Fuzz and Zavite beat the rest clearly that day, and both have form around Master O'Reilly, Dolphin Jo and Light Vision, so that will do us. The NZ'er Sculptor might run well, Pacino will run his usual honest race, while we can expect an improvement from Chollula. If the track is playing to front runners, then Zavite will be a good thing, if playing to run on horses, The Fuzz might just nail him on the line.
Wakeful Stakes
Hopefully by this time of the afternoon, we are aware of how the track is playing and where the best running will be. If run on horses are being allowed to win, then Serious Speed looks almost unbeatable. The $4.40 on offer earlier in the week looked luxurious to say the least, she is now into $3.50 and will more than likely start shorter tomorrow. However, she will get back, has 57kg to lump, first time at 2000m, a few question marks that is for sure. Nothing she beat in the 1000 Guineas will get near he tomorrow unless track bias assists them. Antarctic Miss's run in the Guineas was outstanding, she will lead tomorrow and despite the dreadful draw, will be in front with 200m to go. If the track is playing to leaders, she will win, so at the $15 currently on offer, she is a good each way bet. The only other chance in the race is Katherine Gold. She won well at Caulfield last start and given a good run from her nice draw with Michael Rodd aboard will be in the finish tomorrow. Remember, look for prevailing track bias, then bet accordingly.
Ascot Vale Stakes
Weekend Hustler has plenty against him tomorrow, and none of his obstacles are his opponents. He has not raced for 3 weeks, he steps back from 1600m to the 1200m which is a massive task for any horse and trainer, and has an outside draw. The straight races are a lottery at the best of times, so Brad Rawiller will have to have his mind made up as to which side of the track he will head for. With only 9 runners, probably all will go to the inside, as long as it is not too badly cut up come jump time. However, at $1.50, Weekend Hustler is no betting proposition despite being classes above his rivals. Incumbent will improve tomorrow and could be an each way chance, along with Scenic Blast and Shrewd Rhythm. No bet race for us.
MacKinnon Stakes
This is a good betting race as most of the Melbourne Cup hopefuls will just be having a pipe opener for Tuesday. This leaves very few winning chances, especially considering El Segundo will not run (not that he could win, see a previous blog post). Haradasun, Pillar of Hercules, Captious and Devil Moon are the only winning chances. Given the drama surrounding Pillar Of Hercules, his ownership issues and auction sale today for $1.8m, it is impossible seeing him winning, despite such a light weight. If there is on pace bias, then Devil Moon will go close, if run on bias, then swoopers could hold the key. Haradasun will sit just off Devil Moon and have the sitting shot. If he took no harm from his Cox Plate 3rd, then he is the one to beat. Captious will run a great race at big odds, and if the track is playing on an even keel, then he will give a great sight at nice odds.
VRC Derby
Most of these horses have not really turned three as yet, so plenty of questions still to be asked. Some have the right pedigree for running out a strong 2500m, others certainly do not. The favourite is Marching, by Commands, after his emphatic victory in the strong lead up race at Moonee Valley last Saturday. However, Marching is the first of the Commands to place at further than 1600m, let alone win. There is nothing in his pedigree to suggest he will run 2500m, as there are no winners past 1600. If the race is a sit and sprint, then he is in it up to his ears, if there is a lot of pace on, then he will flounder. Will there be pace? We reckon there will be with 13 runners in the Blue Ribband. The start is only 150m from the first turn so those drawn out wide will have to go forward in an attempt to get across otherwise they get trapped wide around a 1600m bend, so that alone should ensure some pace. Marching from barrier 2 will get shuffled back and he will have to be good to win. So, who will the run on horses be? Littorio, Stockade, Best Beware, Kibbutz and Villain are probably the best of these. However please remeber, take close heed as to how the track is playing before making any punting decisions. If on pace bias exists, then a sit and sprint Marching has an excellent chance of victory. If the fence is off, and the winners are coming out wide, then Littorio and Villain are probably the two.
Myer Classic
We reluctantly called this race by the correct name, as it was only introduced a couple of years ago and has little or no history. Looks a benefit for Divine Madonna unless horses cannot make ground on the day. At level weights she is a weighted certainty, barrier 12 will make no difference as she will get back to nearly last anyway. We are stunned bookies are offering black figures about her. Unfortunately we won't know her fate until after 5 or 6 races are run tomorrow. Of the rest it is a lottery. If the track is playing to on pace runners, then Cinque Cento will race on or close to the lead, and she has been running in far superior company to her opposition other than Divine Madonna.
The Salinger
Had to call this one by the sponsors name because it has a different sponsor almost every year. Back in the 60s it was called the Craven A Stakes, that is how long the VRC has been selling off traditionalism. Straight 6 race, track bias the key, inside or outside? Inside, Stanzout goes very close to winning, his form excellent, well drawn, will get a good run, winner here two starts back, plenty to like about him. However if the best going is on the outside, he has no hope. Typhoon Zed in the same boat, has a good chance if inside is favoured. Tesbury Jack is drawn the centre, giving him a good option to go either way, and his first up win was a nice effort. Of the outside brigade, Shadoways, Storm Signal have good chances.
Ellerston Capital Stakes
Now this is a good race with a couple of very good horses involved. Top weight Royal Ida is fitter now after two runs in Adelaide and is back to peak form. Barrier is a worry, however he'll get back and run home strongly if the bias favours him. Lord Of The Dance gave nothing else a chance at Caulfield last start. We jumped on one start early with him, however if he runs up to that effort he won't be getting beaten tomorrow. He will race on pace so is the one if the track is playing to front runners. The dark horse here is Count To Zero. Forget he ever went around at Caulfield, he was only beaten just under 4 lenths after geting too far back and never seeing daylight at any stage. He will improve tomorrow and has a great chance here at $14 currently on offer.
Well, those are our thoughts for tomorrow's Flemington meeting. Please tread very warily early in the day tomorrow, check all races closely, work out any bias, and use that evidence you see to assist your punting.
We have two good things at Ascot tomorrow, plus another elsehwere in the country. Please contact us here profselections@austarnet.com.au if you would like to back some winners tomorrow.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Friday, November 2, 2007
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Fair Race Tracks For All Horses
Every year around Melbourne Cup time, this issue raises its ugly head. Why? Because Racing Victoria issue an edict to every course manager to prepare race tracks to a dead (4) level. This ensures the sting is out of the ground giving horses softer going to place their feet when racing. So track managers water race courses to obtain the dead rating.
Well, we have to ask why this issue is raised every year, and why Racing Victoria issue this edict. There are two reasons why. Firstly, to appease overseas horses, especially those from Europe who are used to very soft race tracks. In fact, Racing Victoria guarantee the overseas raiders won't face hard, fast surfaces come Melbourne Cup time, ensuring a quality line up come the first Tuesday in November. The second reason tracks are watered is to appease high profile trainers who have good quality gallopers who are racing with major leg or feet problems. These Australian trainers march out this time every year inisiting track managers water, no doctor, race courses to give their horses more of a winning chance, as the trainer knows full well on a good to fast track the horses problems will not allow it to run to its full potential. And with the huge prizemoney on offer, trainers want their horses racing for these riches and to be competitive.
Again, we have to ask why? Rain affected or watered race tracks are prone to bias. Some are affected to favour on pace on fence runners giving back markers little or no hope, other rain affected tracks favour the run on horses who swoop out wide on the track giving leaders near the fence no hope. Why would any one want any sort of bias on Derby Day, Melbourne Cup day, or any day of racing for that matter.
The fact is, the majority (silent majority, non lobbying majority) would prefer a good racing surface, every day of the year. And rightly so. The best and fairest racing surface is a GOOD track. A good track should be prepared whenever and wherever possible, so every horse is allowed to run on its merits and have every possible winning opportunity.
The racing surfaces prepared by Victorian track managers are biased toward the overseas challengers and the high profile local trainers. When Australian horses travel to Hong Kong, or England to race, they cop whatever is dished up to them come race day. Our trainers certainly have no say or influence over how tracks are prepared. However Racing Victoria panders to overseas horses giving them the best track conditions, the ones they are used to at home, the ones that are in their favour, the ones they were promised.
Look at Werribee Cup day yesterday. It was the biggest joke of a track that we have witnessed since Flemington on Turnbull Stakes day when the fence (due to incessant watering) was a complete no go zone. Werribee yesterday favoured leaders, or on pace on fence horses. No horse made ground out wide, no horses won from further than two off the fence.
So, after the debacle of Flemington a month ago, Werribee yesterday, we now approach the biggest week of racing in Australia, Melbourne Cup week, when 4 meetings are held at headquarters in the space of 8 days. If Flemington plays on Saturday, anywhere like it did on Turnbull Stakes day, punters face massive losses. And if the track is biased on Derby Day, the first day of the carnival, then it will only get worse for the following three days.
Let's hope for every punters sake, the track at Flemington plays fairly to all runners for the next week. Hopefully tracks are not doctored so they become rain affected. This will give all punters the opportunity to find that elusive winner without worrying about how the track might play.
May the best horses win.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Well, we have to ask why this issue is raised every year, and why Racing Victoria issue this edict. There are two reasons why. Firstly, to appease overseas horses, especially those from Europe who are used to very soft race tracks. In fact, Racing Victoria guarantee the overseas raiders won't face hard, fast surfaces come Melbourne Cup time, ensuring a quality line up come the first Tuesday in November. The second reason tracks are watered is to appease high profile trainers who have good quality gallopers who are racing with major leg or feet problems. These Australian trainers march out this time every year inisiting track managers water, no doctor, race courses to give their horses more of a winning chance, as the trainer knows full well on a good to fast track the horses problems will not allow it to run to its full potential. And with the huge prizemoney on offer, trainers want their horses racing for these riches and to be competitive.
Again, we have to ask why? Rain affected or watered race tracks are prone to bias. Some are affected to favour on pace on fence runners giving back markers little or no hope, other rain affected tracks favour the run on horses who swoop out wide on the track giving leaders near the fence no hope. Why would any one want any sort of bias on Derby Day, Melbourne Cup day, or any day of racing for that matter.
The fact is, the majority (silent majority, non lobbying majority) would prefer a good racing surface, every day of the year. And rightly so. The best and fairest racing surface is a GOOD track. A good track should be prepared whenever and wherever possible, so every horse is allowed to run on its merits and have every possible winning opportunity.
The racing surfaces prepared by Victorian track managers are biased toward the overseas challengers and the high profile local trainers. When Australian horses travel to Hong Kong, or England to race, they cop whatever is dished up to them come race day. Our trainers certainly have no say or influence over how tracks are prepared. However Racing Victoria panders to overseas horses giving them the best track conditions, the ones they are used to at home, the ones that are in their favour, the ones they were promised.
Look at Werribee Cup day yesterday. It was the biggest joke of a track that we have witnessed since Flemington on Turnbull Stakes day when the fence (due to incessant watering) was a complete no go zone. Werribee yesterday favoured leaders, or on pace on fence horses. No horse made ground out wide, no horses won from further than two off the fence.
So, after the debacle of Flemington a month ago, Werribee yesterday, we now approach the biggest week of racing in Australia, Melbourne Cup week, when 4 meetings are held at headquarters in the space of 8 days. If Flemington plays on Saturday, anywhere like it did on Turnbull Stakes day, punters face massive losses. And if the track is biased on Derby Day, the first day of the carnival, then it will only get worse for the following three days.
Let's hope for every punters sake, the track at Flemington plays fairly to all runners for the next week. Hopefully tracks are not doctored so they become rain affected. This will give all punters the opportunity to find that elusive winner without worrying about how the track might play.
May the best horses win.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
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