The last week of May has always been bookmarked in our minds. We usually receive our first frost of the year, and we usually put the fire on for the first time of the year. Cool, clear, crisp mornings, with cold nights tempered by the combustion heater. Fresh South Easterly winds prevailing throughout the days, and of course, little or no rain. Here at Massie Lodge we can negotiate the winter by rugging the horses, feeding extra, nightly use of the fire and simply putting on a jacket. The equine, canine and human population here are most resilient and understand by the end of May dealing with the cooler times is something we simpy have to cope with for the next 3-4 months. As the days become shorter & the nights become longer we adjust appropriately, deal with it and simply get on with the job.
However, as winter approaches, how many punters adjust their methods accordingly? Why would they need to? Horses run around race tracks every day, nothing really changes other than the venues and the names of the horses. All we need to do is find the best horse in the race, that is drawn well, with a good jockey and trainer, right. Just as we always do, and the winners will keep flowing.
Wrong !!
Winter throws up many more conundrums than most punters are aware of. And most serious & successful punters will drastically reduce the number of bets they have in the winter months to maintain profitability. If they don't, the massive form reversals will catch up to all the profits they made during the summer months and a profitable year will quickly diminish into a losing year which brings some powerful issues into play. Once a punter starts losing, it is inevitable they will try to catch up, get their money back, have more bets which will lead to even more losses. Basic punting rules will be thrown out the window in the hope of regaining that winning touch. All that eventually happens, is the punter simply loses more.
However, here at PASS, we and our followers are much too smart to fall into that old trap. We will remain, become even more disciplined throughout the winter months, and turn what is usually a losing period for most punters into a better than average profit period.
Firstly, let's discuss the issues for the punter during winter. The most obvious issue for tracks located near the coastal areas of Australia that receive plenty of rain is of course wet tracks. Some may think it is an easy task just to find the mud larks, and keep backing them, and the bank balance will overflow with riches. More seasoned punters know that is just not the case and there are plenty if pitfalls in betting on rain affected tracks.
Wet tracks come in various shapes and sizes. With the new track rating system, we class anything worse than a dead (4) as a wet track. If you would like to be more strict, feel free to call a dead (4) a rain affected track. However we find that dead (4) are usually pretty close to good, and are bettable propositions. Generally, our rule of thumb is to leave alone any track that is worse than a dead (4). Now during winter this will eliminate more than half the meetings which are run as betting propositions.
Now, why do we prefer not to bet on rain affected tracks. The answer is simple enough, which we will reply to in point form:-
* All tracks when rain affected are different to the other. A heavy track at Randwick is far different from a slow track at Rosehill. A slow track at Benalla is much different to a heavy track at Moonee Valley. And just because a horse handled the heavy at the Sunshine Coast, what data do we have to say it will handle a slow track at the Gold Coast? Very little, unless it has won on the slow at the Gold Coast in the past. All tracks, even those in close proximity to each other, are built on different bases, ie, diffeent soils, sand etc, so all will react differently when it rains. Some will absorb the moisture far better than others, a slow track at one venue, may even be far worse than a heavy at another venue. The only way the punter has to assess tracks, is by the rating given out on the day, adn these can be far from accurate. And what happens is, one horse will perform well at one venue, but not at another. This causes from reversals, and they are the most diffuclt thing to predict for the punter. Moonee Valley and Randwick Inner Track (Kensington) are both built on a Strath Ayr surface which is totally differetn again. Canberra race course during the winter uses an all weather Acton track, that some horses handle, others don't. Always remember, every rain affected track is different, and treat them as such. Some horses will handle some of them, some horses will handle none of them, a few horses will handle all of them.
* During the winter, horses are jumping from a good track, to a heavy track, back to a slow track. Some will not handle any sort of rain affected track. Others will handle up to slow, but when a track becomes a bog, they flounder. Other horses will only handle a bog, but cannot get through slow to good tracks. Every horse is different. Therefore horses will be far less predictable than when racing on consistently good surfaces.
* Tracks throw up a lot of bias when rain affected. Fast lanes quickly appear, either on the fence, down the centre of the track, or even up against the outside rail. How do punters know where these fast lanes are going to be before palcing their bets?
* Hoses can miss races due to being scratched, or even miss track work because the tracks are too wet. Punters are rarely given this sort of information. So this means some horses will not be fit enough to perform at their peak on race days. An issue that impacts even more on a rain affected track, as only fittest survive and win on heavy tracks.
* Tracks will chop up badly, and if several meetings are run on one particular track when rain affetced, this may affect the track long term. So when the track comes up good after several meetings where the track was rain affetced, because of all the divots and cuts out of it, it still races with extreme bias. An unwitting punter may just think, great, the track is good, let's have a bet, not knowing the track has not recovered from the rain and the use whilst in a rain affected condition.
So, what can the punter do to overcome all these issues? Again, we will answer in point form:-
* Don't bet on tracks rated worse than dead (4). For those that need to have a bet, there are plenty of TAB meetings in areas in Australia that don't get rain in the winter. Tracks like Rockhampton, Townsville & Mackay in Queensland, Kalgoorlie in WA usually come up good throughout the winter period. A track like Port Augusta in SA is dirt, and will usually race predictably. Look for tracks and areas that have had little or no rain, where tracks have been good on a regular basis.
* Horses for courses really comes to the fore during winter. If a horse handled the heavy over 1600m at Ballarat last start, the chances are excellent he will again handle the heavy over 1600m at Ballarat. If you have to bet on rain affected tracks, look for horses that have won at the track, in the existing conditions recently.
* Find horses that race consistenly no matter where or what kind of surface they have run on. If for example, a horse has won or placed in his last 3 starts, at different courses, over different distances, on different rated surfaces, then this horse is more likely to perform again in the future. This horse adapts well to prevailing conditions and is a bettable propostion.
* Find fit horses to bet on. Horses that have raced within the last 14-15 days, horses 2nd, 3rd or 4th up from a spell, especially if they have raced on a rain affected surface at their most recent outing. Only fit horses are able to plough through the mud to win, the horses first up who need the run will be struggling when going gets tough in the straight.
* Avoid horses who win by 3 lengths one start, then get beaten by 10 lengths the next or vice versa. How can a punter predict form revesals of this magnitude, whether the track be wet or dry. If there are several horses in one race with similar form lines to this, leave the race alone. There will be other races today or tomorrow for you to punt on.
* Avoid horses who have not placed on either heavy or slow tracks, especially if they have had more than 3 runs on rain affected tracks. Chances are, this horses simply does not handle the wet. And horses are of course creatures of habit, and will continue these habits throughout their lives.
* Avoid betting in maidens, or races with a lot of first starters. Punters have no idea who will or who won't handle wet tracks. Just because a horse is by Snippets, doesn't automatically mean he will swim. Snippets progeny only has a 16% winning strike rate on wet tracks, that means 84% of his progeny don't handle them.
* Watch early races at every meeting. Try to assess if there is track bias, and where it is. The assess if your horse is drawn in the best position to take advantage of the track bias. Leader biased tracks favour horses drawn well, whereas swooping tracks assist horses drawn wide who will get back and run on.
* Use www.racenet.com.au "Wet Track Sires" satistics. It is a great free service found on their web site. Read them, the stats will surprise you I am sure, as to who the best and worst are. For example, Octagonal's do not handle wet tracks, Langfhur's are swimmers.
If you enjoy trying to predict form reversals, then this is the time of year to open your wallets and let loose. You will get plenty of value if using this type of method, but be ready for long losing streaks as well.
However, if you are a disciplined punter, think carefully and punt warily during the winter months as there will be plenty of form reversals, plenty of unanswered questions and plenty of head shaking before the Spring. If you don't bet on rain affected tracks, your number of bets will reduce automatically, and that is the best start you can have. Don't attempt to predict form reversals, you will get them right occasionally, however you will require a few long priced winners to justify trying to predict these form reversals. Back consistent, in form horses and follow the above guidelines to give you a winning edge.
We trust this has assisted a few punters. If you would like to comment or give feedback, please contact us at profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Monday, May 28, 2007
Thursday, May 17, 2007
The Spruik Horse
I don't listen to the radio these days. I don't read newspapers. I don't pay any attention to anything an owner, trainer, or jockey says in any interview. In fact, when I do turn on a radio or a television, and there are tipsters spruiking their selections, I immediately turn it off.
Now, there are several reasons why I don't read newspapers. Suffice to say they all have vested interests, and are looking for a story to sell more newspapers. So it is extremely rare we get an unbiased picture from any newspaper. Similar to radio, most if not all have vested interests, and we the listener are never made aware of who is paying the announcer to say what. Leave me out of all that, I'd rather make my own mind up about issues than be brainwashed by biased individuals.
Exactly the same thing in regards to punting. Why do people listen to tipsters? Do they ever, any of them, advertise their winning or losing strike rates to prove or disprove their worth as a tipster? Not on your life.
Why do people listen to race horse owners? They are the most biased person to ask about anything. they pay the bills, they think their horse is a champion, whether it has won a maiden or not. And they have absolutely no idea realistically of how the horse is going.
Why do people listen to jockeys? I have no idea why, jockeys generally don't know how the horse is going, unless they ride it every day in track work. And most are unable to line up the form of their opponents. When jockeys are interviewed, most are there for self promotion, nothing else. Most can barely put 2-3 words together, let alone a sentence or 3. And most have been taught by their jockey managers all the right cliches to retort when asked a question.
Why do people listen to trainers? The trainer realistically is the only one who knows the real chances of the horse. However, there is no way he will get on television or radio and announce to the world that "so & so" is a moral today. it would crucify the price for the owners. Alternatively, he is also not going to announce to the world, "So & so" has no hope today, as it would irate the owners and he might lose their business. The only time he will say the horse has no hope, is if he is trying to get a better price for their owners.
A classic example yesterday was in the first race at Sandown. Running Riot , trained by Mick Price, had been heavily supported into $2.20 favourite. Price was interviewed on TVN before the race. He had another runner in the race as well, and Bruce Clarke asked Price to compare the two. Price's reply was there was no way Contessas Choice could possibly beat Running Riot. Well there you, mortgage the house, scrape up every bit of spare cash you have and just get on Running Riot. You would have lost the lot had you listened to Mick Price. As Contessas Choice beat Running Riot easily, although neither were good enough to win the race, as Miss Meercat saluted the judge before them all.
Now, please, I am not having a go at Mick Price. In fact, I believe he is one of the more astute trainers in Australia, and have no issue putting my hard earned on anything he trains. But please, Mick or anyone else, do not insult the public by making comments like that. Whether you believe it to be true or not. It is totally misleading. And this is one reason why I do not listen to any tipsters or interviews.
Why? Because it will affect my judgement and my decisions. The only person to listen to when making a decision on which horse to back is you. In that way, you can only blame yourself if you back a loser, and only congratulate yourself if you back a winner. And you cannot hurt or upset anyone else but yourself.
And now to the spruike horse. I can recall during my days in Sydney, listening to 2KY of a Saturday morning religiously. Now without naming names, every week, there would be a horse at the Sydney metro meeting that every man and their dog wanted to tip you. 4, 5 or 6 different tipsters, jockeys, trainers whoever all came on and spruiked the horse. Now this horse was probably a $4 chance prior to all this media attention, but when the bookies open their market, up it pops @ $1.50 !! So, then everyone thinks it is a god thing, well, it must be, it's odds on isn't it? And week after week, this so called "moral" gets rolled at long odds on. The punters do their cash, the bookies laugh, and TAB's rub their hands together because turnover on the race was up 5% on last year.
This scenario is another reason of course not to listen to tipsters on either radio or television. However the bigger issue here is that to back a horse like this one, you are taking way under the horses true odds. If the horse is a $4 chance, means he should win the race 25% of the time, however the punter is being asked to take $1.50, which indicates he should win 75% of the time. A rather large difference in odds there, don't you think?
So, now to the point of this discussion. Yesterday, at around 8:30am, we sent out emails and text messages to our clients. In this email, we indicated a horse at Sandown in R3, Guild, looked a pretty good thing. In early market it was around the $3.50, more than acceptable. IAS actually opened her up at $2.70, not quite as good, but again, acceptable odds for horse who ran a great second on a Saturday, after having to overcome a wide draw. Late morning, I flicked on TVN, and the first thing I saw was Brian Martin tipping Guild. Oh well, I thought, he goes okay, not too worried about that. I then flicked the television over to Sky, and here is Tony Brassell tipping Guild as a special!! Come on fellas, did you all get my email this morning? So I immediately turned the television back to TVN, where bugger me, here is another bloke (whose name escapes me) tipping Guild as a special !!! So, when the main bookies markets went up, I was less than surprised when it opened at $1.70 !!!
Now this then leads to another point. When I tip a horse, I back them. The last thing I want is for people to think I tip them something, then don't bother to have anything on it myself. Everything I tip, I can assure everyone, I back. However, yesterday was the closest I have come to not backing one that I tipped to my clients. There was no way Guild deserved to be odds on. Inf act, there were 3-4 other realistic chances in the race, and I really didn't want to take less than $2.50 about her.
Anyway, history tells us Guild led them up, capitulated meekly in the straight to run 3rd with an SP of $2.00. I understand Guild doesn't know what price she is, however, the other jockeys in the race do and will usually attempt to get the shortie beaten.
The moral of the story is, don't listen to anyone else, not tipsters, not trainers, not jockeys. And never, ever back the spruike horses, they will always come up well under their true odds, and not value at that. Some may win, however taking long odds on about every horse you back, will send you to bankruptcy court far quicker than a 1929 like depression could ever dream of doing.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Now, there are several reasons why I don't read newspapers. Suffice to say they all have vested interests, and are looking for a story to sell more newspapers. So it is extremely rare we get an unbiased picture from any newspaper. Similar to radio, most if not all have vested interests, and we the listener are never made aware of who is paying the announcer to say what. Leave me out of all that, I'd rather make my own mind up about issues than be brainwashed by biased individuals.
Exactly the same thing in regards to punting. Why do people listen to tipsters? Do they ever, any of them, advertise their winning or losing strike rates to prove or disprove their worth as a tipster? Not on your life.
Why do people listen to race horse owners? They are the most biased person to ask about anything. they pay the bills, they think their horse is a champion, whether it has won a maiden or not. And they have absolutely no idea realistically of how the horse is going.
Why do people listen to jockeys? I have no idea why, jockeys generally don't know how the horse is going, unless they ride it every day in track work. And most are unable to line up the form of their opponents. When jockeys are interviewed, most are there for self promotion, nothing else. Most can barely put 2-3 words together, let alone a sentence or 3. And most have been taught by their jockey managers all the right cliches to retort when asked a question.
Why do people listen to trainers? The trainer realistically is the only one who knows the real chances of the horse. However, there is no way he will get on television or radio and announce to the world that "so & so" is a moral today. it would crucify the price for the owners. Alternatively, he is also not going to announce to the world, "So & so" has no hope today, as it would irate the owners and he might lose their business. The only time he will say the horse has no hope, is if he is trying to get a better price for their owners.
A classic example yesterday was in the first race at Sandown. Running Riot , trained by Mick Price, had been heavily supported into $2.20 favourite. Price was interviewed on TVN before the race. He had another runner in the race as well, and Bruce Clarke asked Price to compare the two. Price's reply was there was no way Contessas Choice could possibly beat Running Riot. Well there you, mortgage the house, scrape up every bit of spare cash you have and just get on Running Riot. You would have lost the lot had you listened to Mick Price. As Contessas Choice beat Running Riot easily, although neither were good enough to win the race, as Miss Meercat saluted the judge before them all.
Now, please, I am not having a go at Mick Price. In fact, I believe he is one of the more astute trainers in Australia, and have no issue putting my hard earned on anything he trains. But please, Mick or anyone else, do not insult the public by making comments like that. Whether you believe it to be true or not. It is totally misleading. And this is one reason why I do not listen to any tipsters or interviews.
Why? Because it will affect my judgement and my decisions. The only person to listen to when making a decision on which horse to back is you. In that way, you can only blame yourself if you back a loser, and only congratulate yourself if you back a winner. And you cannot hurt or upset anyone else but yourself.
And now to the spruike horse. I can recall during my days in Sydney, listening to 2KY of a Saturday morning religiously. Now without naming names, every week, there would be a horse at the Sydney metro meeting that every man and their dog wanted to tip you. 4, 5 or 6 different tipsters, jockeys, trainers whoever all came on and spruiked the horse. Now this horse was probably a $4 chance prior to all this media attention, but when the bookies open their market, up it pops @ $1.50 !! So, then everyone thinks it is a god thing, well, it must be, it's odds on isn't it? And week after week, this so called "moral" gets rolled at long odds on. The punters do their cash, the bookies laugh, and TAB's rub their hands together because turnover on the race was up 5% on last year.
This scenario is another reason of course not to listen to tipsters on either radio or television. However the bigger issue here is that to back a horse like this one, you are taking way under the horses true odds. If the horse is a $4 chance, means he should win the race 25% of the time, however the punter is being asked to take $1.50, which indicates he should win 75% of the time. A rather large difference in odds there, don't you think?
So, now to the point of this discussion. Yesterday, at around 8:30am, we sent out emails and text messages to our clients. In this email, we indicated a horse at Sandown in R3, Guild, looked a pretty good thing. In early market it was around the $3.50, more than acceptable. IAS actually opened her up at $2.70, not quite as good, but again, acceptable odds for horse who ran a great second on a Saturday, after having to overcome a wide draw. Late morning, I flicked on TVN, and the first thing I saw was Brian Martin tipping Guild. Oh well, I thought, he goes okay, not too worried about that. I then flicked the television over to Sky, and here is Tony Brassell tipping Guild as a special!! Come on fellas, did you all get my email this morning? So I immediately turned the television back to TVN, where bugger me, here is another bloke (whose name escapes me) tipping Guild as a special !!! So, when the main bookies markets went up, I was less than surprised when it opened at $1.70 !!!
Now this then leads to another point. When I tip a horse, I back them. The last thing I want is for people to think I tip them something, then don't bother to have anything on it myself. Everything I tip, I can assure everyone, I back. However, yesterday was the closest I have come to not backing one that I tipped to my clients. There was no way Guild deserved to be odds on. Inf act, there were 3-4 other realistic chances in the race, and I really didn't want to take less than $2.50 about her.
Anyway, history tells us Guild led them up, capitulated meekly in the straight to run 3rd with an SP of $2.00. I understand Guild doesn't know what price she is, however, the other jockeys in the race do and will usually attempt to get the shortie beaten.
The moral of the story is, don't listen to anyone else, not tipsters, not trainers, not jockeys. And never, ever back the spruike horses, they will always come up well under their true odds, and not value at that. Some may win, however taking long odds on about every horse you back, will send you to bankruptcy court far quicker than a 1929 like depression could ever dream of doing.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
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