The Single Most Important Factor When Assessing a Race

In this day and age, where classic bloodlines have been filtered through, and shuttle stallions come and go on a yearly basis, thoroughbred horse racing has become far more even than in years gone by. It is very rare now to find a virtually unbeatable horse like Kingston Town, Phar Lap, Tulloch or Bernborough. There are always plenty of good horses, like Lonhro, Sunline and Northerly, but gone are the days when one horse can win everything it is entered in. And this is just the better class of horse. As we get down in grades, to Class 1, 2 or even maidens, horse flesh is so evenly balanced, the most minor issue in a race can be the difference between winning and losing. A slight check, being held up for a run even for a mere 50m, slightly missing the start, and there are plenty of other reasons.

So basically these days, the horse with the best run in the race will usually win. The horse that draws well, is ridden well, gets all the favours and clear runs at the right time, that is the horse you want to have your hard earned money on. Not necessarily the best horse in the race. So how do you work out before the race which horse will get the easiest run in transit, and be fit and ready to sprint home the final 200m to victory?

We have all heard the old addage from Keith Noud,

"There is only one good barrier (barrier 1), and they get progressively worse"

We have all heard Alan Thomas on Sky Channel continually bleating,

"They just don't win from out there"

However, despite these utterings, every Saturday afternoon we see a horse start favourite even though it is starting from an outside barrier. Why do punters continually ignore the most simple of decisions when assessing a race? Oh, it is the best horse in the race is it? Oh, it has no weight on it's back, has it? Oh, it's got Beadman/Oliver/Harvey/Scriven on it has it? None of these, nor any other positives help when it comes to drawing a bad barrier.

Firstly, what is a bad barrier? Any barrier out side barrier 9 in any race is a bad barrier. Look at the size of the field, and any barrier outside half the field size, is a bad barrier. That is, if the field size is 12, anything outside barrier 6 would be considered a poor draw. Look at how far to the first turn in the race, and the shorter the distance, the less chance you horse has of getting into a good position. If there is less than 250m to the first turn, you really shouldn't be on anything drawn outside 4 or 5. sure, sometimes they will get in from 7 or 8, but plenty of luck or extremely good horsemanship is required for that. And remember, with the eveness of the fields these days, you need everything to go right for your horse to win.

Now, let's examine what happens to a horse starting from what we consider a poor barrier. There are only 3 alternatives for the jockey.

1. Hook the horse back to the rear, give him a cosy run, and hope you get luck in the straight.

2. Burn out of the barrier, get to the front on the rails, give the horse a breather, and hope he has something left for the finish.

3. Ease across gradually, and live in hope that a few go so quickly up front, a perfect passage to the fence will miraculously appear, and you can slot in for an easy run.

Now, how often do any of these perfect situations occur? We can assure you, extremely rarely. Let's examine what really happens in these situations

1. The jockey hooks the horse at barrier rise and heads straight for the inside. A couple of things can happen here. There could be 2 or 3 other jockeys with the same idea, especially if there is deemed to be a lot of speed in the race. It is not impossible to imagine, that 2 other horses on the inside ease back as well, and you are trapped 3 deep and last coming to the first turn, and your horse will not win from there. If indeed the jockey is able to get to the inside to get an easy run, there is now a wall of horses in front of him. Only two possibiliteis are open to the jockey now. He either has to ride for luck, and hope in vain the heavens open and the perfect run appears from nowhere, and take the needle eye opening to surge through to win the race. And how often does this happen? Again rarely. The other option to the jockey last and on the inside, is to take off early, say at the 600m, try to circle the field 4-5 wide, and hope his horse has Gunsynd like courage and keeps coming in the straight to win. Again, how often do we see this happen. Again, rarely. Only good horses are able to achieve either of these outcomes, and with the eveness of racing, there is not that bigger gap between protaginists in most races.

2. Bang, the gates crash open, and like a bolt of lightning, your jockey surges your horse out of the gates and within 200m he is on the fence and in the lead. One of two things will happen. Either the horse, so sturred up from being urged out of the gates, he won't settle and will either open up a huge lead or over race when the jockey tries to restrain him. Whichever happens, the horse is gone at the top of the straight finishes well back in the field. And, what if, when the jockey sools the horse out fo the barrier, he finds there is 2-3 other jockeys doing exactly the same thing, trying to get to the lead on the fence. From an outside barrier, your horse is now up attacking for the lead by 3 wide into the first turn. In this instance, your horse is gone before even getting to the straight.

3. It has no influence in this case, whether the field is large or small. If you ride for luck, and try to ease across and get in, it just won't happen. As any other hop worth his salt, will not allow you to get in. The other jockeys want you out 3-4 wide, especially if you are on a favourite. And what happens to the horse trapped 3-4 wide for the entire trip? It drops out before the turn and is a spent force.

And in all these circumstances, which horse wins the race? The horse who allowed the speedsters to go silly early, and took the cushy sit in behind them. The horse who drew barrier 1 or 2, got to the fence easily and didn't have a huge wall of horses in front of him to negotiate. The horse who hugged the rails all the way and didn't go around a horse. In other words, the horse who had the best barrier, was well weighted and well ridden, the horse who had the best run in the race.

The horse who gets the best run in the race, will usually win the race. And it is nigh on impossible to get the best run in the race from a wide barrier.

So please, we implore you, when assessing form, remember the most important factor there is. The barrier draw. Don't back a horse from a barrier outside 9. Don't back a horse drawn outside the middle of the field. Try to back horses drawn inside 4 or 5. If you do, even if your horse is not the best horse in the race, it may well get the best run and still win. And assess the distance to the first turn in the race, and give yourself an idea of how far your horse actually has to get in.

We hope this assists your punting, as horses drawn bad barriers rarely win. And if they do win, every single occurrance in the race has to go their way.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.