Firstly a quick update on our selection service. So far we have had 78 selections, for 38 winners at an average winning price of $2.71. A profit of over 30% on turnover at level stakes. PASS has now been in operation for enarly 4 months, so it is fairly obvious good profits can be made from supporting our selections and horses to follow.
We have had a good week here at PASS. Three of our last four selections have saluted, with Crosswise doing the job impressively for our members yesterday. We also encouraged them to have something each way on Bon Hoffa who ran a mighty second to Apache Cat in the Carylyon Cup at $15. A great effort after a wide run, and he is a horse to follow.
Caulfield race course yesterday hosted a vast array of thoroughbred horse talent with the running of Group 1 Blue Diamod Stakes & Oakleigh Plate. There were also several other group races on the 9 event program.
Congratulations must go again to David Hayes, who quinellered the Group 1 2yo race with Sleek Chasis and Zizou. Hayes had 5 starters in all, and looked to have a mortgage on the race and that is how it turned out. Hayes certainly has many more horses in work than any other trainer in Australia, especially two year olds, and one has to wonder how many fell by the wayside in preparation for this years 2yo Classics. With plans afoot now for both winner and runner up to head to Sydney for the Golden Slipper it will be interesting to see if they can stand up to racing and maintain their form. It is almost impossible these days to win a Blue Diamond and a Golden Slipper in the same year with the same horse, as tough a challenge as it is. The Golden Slipper is still 5 weeks away, and to keep a young still growing 2yo sound and and peaking for that period of time is an almighty task. But if anyone can do it, then David Hayes would have to be your man.
Big prizemoney dominates 2yo racing in 2007, and you can't blame owners and trainers for chasing the money on offer. However one has to wonder how detrimental racing 2yos so much so young is to their health. It is most unusual to see good 2yos continue racing through to 4,5 or even 6 you nowadays. But I suppose with the money on offer for 2yo races, do owners and trainers really care? And the detriment to Australian staying races, due to so many 2yos being over raced, is becoming increasingly obvious. You don't just have to look at the 2006 Melbourne Cup, look at todays $166,000 Gosford Cup. Only 9 final runners, and although most have plenty of ability, the majority have had plenty of chances as well. Must be very disappointing for the GRC to see their number one event with such a small field. And what about Queensland, Northern Territory & country areas of NSW? Race clubs don't even schedule events of distances further than 1600m. What chance does that give to staying types?
Unfortunately yearling sales, and 2yo racing are dominating the Australian turf in 2007, which does not augur well for racing future in this country.
The other issue we would like to raise from yesterday is simply about the state of the Caulfield track itself. It became eveident early in the nine race program, that jockeys were beginning to steer well clear of the inside running rail. Now very little rain had fallen on the track, or so we were told yesterday morning. However the inside section became very cut up and was a no go zone from race 4 onward. This is totally unacceptable for a major Group 1 race day. Even winners like Seachange & Apache Cat who sat on or near the speed, won travelling well off the fence in the straight. Melbourne race clubs are forced by Racing Victoria officials to have tracks on race days dead, so there is no jar in the ground. So plenty of irrigation is placed on the track in the lead up to meetings. Any minute amount of rain on the course then worsens the going, and the first place to be affected will be the inside as that is where most of the traffic evolves. We don't know whether over irrigation or unpredicted rain was the issue yesterday, whatever the reason, procedures must be put into place so this doesn't happen on a major race day again.
Think about the poor punters who spent hours on the form analysing every aspect and came up with horses drawn barrier 1 or 2. Those horses had no hope yesterday at Caulfield because they were stuck on the glue pot on the fence. And punters who rightfully discounted runners drawn wide with awkward gates, were dismayed when these horses were storming home out wide after tough runs. Punters in this day and age are treated like mushrooms. As long as they are placing bets and increasing turnover for the TAB's, nothing will ever be done to assist or support them. TAB's and race clubs are now only interested in getting punters to place bets. Gettum drunk & gettum betting, because if they don't do it here, they will do it elsewhere at pubs, clubs or casinos.
Punters should always be aware of any track bias on the day. Watch the first few races, see where the winners come from, assess in your own eyes if the inside or outside is being cut more than the other. Re assess you selections as the day unfolds, and if you are not sure where the best to be really is, then don't have a bet. They run around again tomorrow, somehwere.
Anyway, Victorian race clubs please take note. Punters want good race tracks to bet on, with no track bias. Not a lot to ask, we would have thought, especially on a Group 1 race day.
So if you are having trouble finding that elusive winner, send us an email to profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will point you in the direction on how to not only enjoy what our current memebrs are enjoying, plenty of winners. But you will also learn how to find more winners, find less losers, and thoroughly enjoy your punting.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Sunday, February 25, 2007
Thursday, February 15, 2007
The Single Most Important Factor When Assessing a Race
In this day and age, where classic bloodlines have been filtered through, and shuttle stallions come and go on a yearly basis, thoroughbred horse racing has become far more even than in years gone by. It is very rare now to find a virtually unbeatable horse like Kingston Town, Phar Lap, Tulloch or Bernborough. There are always plenty of good horses, like Lonhro, Sunline and Northerly, but gone are the days when one horse can win everything it is entered in. And this is just the better class of horse. As we get down in grades, to Class 1, 2 or even maidens, horse flesh is so evenly balanced, the most minor issue in a race can be the difference between winning and losing. A slight check, being held up for a run even for a mere 50m, slightly missing the start, and there are plenty of other reasons.
So basically these days, the horse with the best run in the race will usually win. The horse that draws well, is ridden well, gets all the favours and clear runs at the right time, that is the horse you want to have your hard earned money on. Not necessarily the best horse in the race. So how do you work out before the race which horse will get the easiest run in transit, and be fit and ready to sprint home the final 200m to victory?
We have all heard the old addage from Keith Noud,
"There is only one good barrier (barrier 1), and they get progressively worse"
We have all heard Alan Thomas on Sky Channel continually bleating,
"They just don't win from out there"
However, despite these utterings, every Saturday afternoon we see a horse start favourite even though it is starting from an outside barrier. Why do punters continually ignore the most simple of decisions when assessing a race? Oh, it is the best horse in the race is it? Oh, it has no weight on it's back, has it? Oh, it's got Beadman/Oliver/Harvey/Scriven on it has it? None of these, nor any other positives help when it comes to drawing a bad barrier.
Firstly, what is a bad barrier? Any barrier out side barrier 9 in any race is a bad barrier. Look at the size of the field, and any barrier outside half the field size, is a bad barrier. That is, if the field size is 12, anything outside barrier 6 would be considered a poor draw. Look at how far to the first turn in the race, and the shorter the distance, the less chance you horse has of getting into a good position. If there is less than 250m to the first turn, you really shouldn't be on anything drawn outside 4 or 5. sure, sometimes they will get in from 7 or 8, but plenty of luck or extremely good horsemanship is required for that. And remember, with the eveness of the fields these days, you need everything to go right for your horse to win.
Now, let's examine what happens to a horse starting from what we consider a poor barrier. There are only 3 alternatives for the jockey.
1. Hook the horse back to the rear, give him a cosy run, and hope you get luck in the straight.
2. Burn out of the barrier, get to the front on the rails, give the horse a breather, and hope he has something left for the finish.
3. Ease across gradually, and live in hope that a few go so quickly up front, a perfect passage to the fence will miraculously appear, and you can slot in for an easy run.
Now, how often do any of these perfect situations occur? We can assure you, extremely rarely. Let's examine what really happens in these situations
1. The jockey hooks the horse at barrier rise and heads straight for the inside. A couple of things can happen here. There could be 2 or 3 other jockeys with the same idea, especially if there is deemed to be a lot of speed in the race. It is not impossible to imagine, that 2 other horses on the inside ease back as well, and you are trapped 3 deep and last coming to the first turn, and your horse will not win from there. If indeed the jockey is able to get to the inside to get an easy run, there is now a wall of horses in front of him. Only two possibiliteis are open to the jockey now. He either has to ride for luck, and hope in vain the heavens open and the perfect run appears from nowhere, and take the needle eye opening to surge through to win the race. And how often does this happen? Again rarely. The other option to the jockey last and on the inside, is to take off early, say at the 600m, try to circle the field 4-5 wide, and hope his horse has Gunsynd like courage and keeps coming in the straight to win. Again, how often do we see this happen. Again, rarely. Only good horses are able to achieve either of these outcomes, and with the eveness of racing, there is not that bigger gap between protaginists in most races.
2. Bang, the gates crash open, and like a bolt of lightning, your jockey surges your horse out of the gates and within 200m he is on the fence and in the lead. One of two things will happen. Either the horse, so sturred up from being urged out of the gates, he won't settle and will either open up a huge lead or over race when the jockey tries to restrain him. Whichever happens, the horse is gone at the top of the straight finishes well back in the field. And, what if, when the jockey sools the horse out fo the barrier, he finds there is 2-3 other jockeys doing exactly the same thing, trying to get to the lead on the fence. From an outside barrier, your horse is now up attacking for the lead by 3 wide into the first turn. In this instance, your horse is gone before even getting to the straight.
3. It has no influence in this case, whether the field is large or small. If you ride for luck, and try to ease across and get in, it just won't happen. As any other hop worth his salt, will not allow you to get in. The other jockeys want you out 3-4 wide, especially if you are on a favourite. And what happens to the horse trapped 3-4 wide for the entire trip? It drops out before the turn and is a spent force.
And in all these circumstances, which horse wins the race? The horse who allowed the speedsters to go silly early, and took the cushy sit in behind them. The horse who drew barrier 1 or 2, got to the fence easily and didn't have a huge wall of horses in front of him to negotiate. The horse who hugged the rails all the way and didn't go around a horse. In other words, the horse who had the best barrier, was well weighted and well ridden, the horse who had the best run in the race.
The horse who gets the best run in the race, will usually win the race. And it is nigh on impossible to get the best run in the race from a wide barrier.
So please, we implore you, when assessing form, remember the most important factor there is. The barrier draw. Don't back a horse from a barrier outside 9. Don't back a horse drawn outside the middle of the field. Try to back horses drawn inside 4 or 5. If you do, even if your horse is not the best horse in the race, it may well get the best run and still win. And assess the distance to the first turn in the race, and give yourself an idea of how far your horse actually has to get in.
We hope this assists your punting, as horses drawn bad barriers rarely win. And if they do win, every single occurrance in the race has to go their way.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
So basically these days, the horse with the best run in the race will usually win. The horse that draws well, is ridden well, gets all the favours and clear runs at the right time, that is the horse you want to have your hard earned money on. Not necessarily the best horse in the race. So how do you work out before the race which horse will get the easiest run in transit, and be fit and ready to sprint home the final 200m to victory?
We have all heard the old addage from Keith Noud,
"There is only one good barrier (barrier 1), and they get progressively worse"
We have all heard Alan Thomas on Sky Channel continually bleating,
"They just don't win from out there"
However, despite these utterings, every Saturday afternoon we see a horse start favourite even though it is starting from an outside barrier. Why do punters continually ignore the most simple of decisions when assessing a race? Oh, it is the best horse in the race is it? Oh, it has no weight on it's back, has it? Oh, it's got Beadman/Oliver/Harvey/Scriven on it has it? None of these, nor any other positives help when it comes to drawing a bad barrier.
Firstly, what is a bad barrier? Any barrier out side barrier 9 in any race is a bad barrier. Look at the size of the field, and any barrier outside half the field size, is a bad barrier. That is, if the field size is 12, anything outside barrier 6 would be considered a poor draw. Look at how far to the first turn in the race, and the shorter the distance, the less chance you horse has of getting into a good position. If there is less than 250m to the first turn, you really shouldn't be on anything drawn outside 4 or 5. sure, sometimes they will get in from 7 or 8, but plenty of luck or extremely good horsemanship is required for that. And remember, with the eveness of the fields these days, you need everything to go right for your horse to win.
Now, let's examine what happens to a horse starting from what we consider a poor barrier. There are only 3 alternatives for the jockey.
1. Hook the horse back to the rear, give him a cosy run, and hope you get luck in the straight.
2. Burn out of the barrier, get to the front on the rails, give the horse a breather, and hope he has something left for the finish.
3. Ease across gradually, and live in hope that a few go so quickly up front, a perfect passage to the fence will miraculously appear, and you can slot in for an easy run.
Now, how often do any of these perfect situations occur? We can assure you, extremely rarely. Let's examine what really happens in these situations
1. The jockey hooks the horse at barrier rise and heads straight for the inside. A couple of things can happen here. There could be 2 or 3 other jockeys with the same idea, especially if there is deemed to be a lot of speed in the race. It is not impossible to imagine, that 2 other horses on the inside ease back as well, and you are trapped 3 deep and last coming to the first turn, and your horse will not win from there. If indeed the jockey is able to get to the inside to get an easy run, there is now a wall of horses in front of him. Only two possibiliteis are open to the jockey now. He either has to ride for luck, and hope in vain the heavens open and the perfect run appears from nowhere, and take the needle eye opening to surge through to win the race. And how often does this happen? Again rarely. The other option to the jockey last and on the inside, is to take off early, say at the 600m, try to circle the field 4-5 wide, and hope his horse has Gunsynd like courage and keeps coming in the straight to win. Again, how often do we see this happen. Again, rarely. Only good horses are able to achieve either of these outcomes, and with the eveness of racing, there is not that bigger gap between protaginists in most races.
2. Bang, the gates crash open, and like a bolt of lightning, your jockey surges your horse out of the gates and within 200m he is on the fence and in the lead. One of two things will happen. Either the horse, so sturred up from being urged out of the gates, he won't settle and will either open up a huge lead or over race when the jockey tries to restrain him. Whichever happens, the horse is gone at the top of the straight finishes well back in the field. And, what if, when the jockey sools the horse out fo the barrier, he finds there is 2-3 other jockeys doing exactly the same thing, trying to get to the lead on the fence. From an outside barrier, your horse is now up attacking for the lead by 3 wide into the first turn. In this instance, your horse is gone before even getting to the straight.
3. It has no influence in this case, whether the field is large or small. If you ride for luck, and try to ease across and get in, it just won't happen. As any other hop worth his salt, will not allow you to get in. The other jockeys want you out 3-4 wide, especially if you are on a favourite. And what happens to the horse trapped 3-4 wide for the entire trip? It drops out before the turn and is a spent force.
And in all these circumstances, which horse wins the race? The horse who allowed the speedsters to go silly early, and took the cushy sit in behind them. The horse who drew barrier 1 or 2, got to the fence easily and didn't have a huge wall of horses in front of him to negotiate. The horse who hugged the rails all the way and didn't go around a horse. In other words, the horse who had the best barrier, was well weighted and well ridden, the horse who had the best run in the race.
The horse who gets the best run in the race, will usually win the race. And it is nigh on impossible to get the best run in the race from a wide barrier.
So please, we implore you, when assessing form, remember the most important factor there is. The barrier draw. Don't back a horse from a barrier outside 9. Don't back a horse drawn outside the middle of the field. Try to back horses drawn inside 4 or 5. If you do, even if your horse is not the best horse in the race, it may well get the best run and still win. And assess the distance to the first turn in the race, and give yourself an idea of how far your horse actually has to get in.
We hope this assists your punting, as horses drawn bad barriers rarely win. And if they do win, every single occurrance in the race has to go their way.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Sunday, February 11, 2007
Patience & Discipline
We have had a pretty quiet time since our last post. There have only been 6 selections for our members, 3 of which have won. Currently our winning strike rate is 48.57% with an average winning price of $2.76, giving us a profit on invesment at level stakes of 34.02%.
Yesterday PASS members were treated to information regarding a very good 5yo mare who we predicted would win a Group 3 race at Caulfield. Her name was Coniston Gem, and she didn't let followers down and won impressively at the excellent odds of $4.10.
It is appropriate at this time to raise a very important issue when it comes to punting, and trying keep on the positive side of the leger. Over the past two weeks, there have been some very tough meetings, large and even fields, making it very tough for punters.
Now one of the biggest mistakes punters make, is having too many bets. It would have been very easy over the past couple of weeks for us to back a couple of horses every day, just for the sake of having a bet. And what would then happen, is that these bets, which would not have been good things, just hopeful bets, these horses would lose. And what happens when you hit a losing streak? Most punters will chase their money and have more bets. And that leads to backing even more losers. The more losers you back, the more money you lose, and the more the punter wants to chase his money and try to regain the losses. In the end, the punter is so far behind, not even a 50/1 winner will get him out of the hole he has dug for himself.
We have all been in similar situations. Down the pub on a Saturday afternoon. We had 3 good things for the afternoon, and only intended backing those 3 horses. The first one got trapped wide from an awkward barrier, and was beaten a nostril after hitting the front with 100m to go. Gee that was unlucky. The second one had a beautiful run in transit, third on the fence, but as the runs came around the outside, he was stuck on the fence an didn't get clear running until the final 50m. He flashed home to finish 3rd, a certainty beaten. Oh well, the third bet will get us out of trouble. Well, that is until, the 3kg claiming apprentice who was riding him, took off before acceptances dashed well clear before the field got into the straight, and was left a sitting duck for the run on horses and dropped out to finish a dismal 5th. Now we are dirty on the world. Bloody jockeys, they don't have a clue do they. And we have a quick sup of our 5th schooner and then grab for the form guide for a get out bet. And when the first get out bet we plucked from our semi drunken stupor runs second, we grab the beer in one hand, and the form guide in the other searching desparately for a winner. With wall to wall racing these days, ability to bet on anything until after midnight every day, we could lose the house by the time we stagger out of the pub. It doesn't seem to matter that the hours of form study the night before only came up with the original 3 horses, and we didn't actually like any other horses winning chances on the day. But hey, that was then when we had all the information at our finger tips, and had been concentrating totally on finding a winner. Now we are half tanked, have to appear to our mates we know what we are doing, we'll show them who the best punter is, won't we?
Okay, so how can we avoid this ever spiralling flood of money streaming out of our wallets?
Firstly, don't drink and punt. Not even on social occasions. Either go to the races or the pub to drink, or go there to punt. If you are drinking and socialising, and you only like 3 horses on the day, place your bets before you get to the venue, and make sure you have no more money to punt with for the afternoon after the three horses have raced. And if they do all lose, make sure you are with a group of mates who will not lend you any money. Neither a borrower nor a lender be.
Even if you are not at the pub or the races, and under the influence of alcohol, there is still always a burning desire inside us all to recoup any losses late in the day. And this is where patience & discipline comes into play. They are ambiguous objects you have to learn, and teach yourself to perform every day you are on the punt. You have to keep asking yourself, "Do you really want to win punting"? If the answer is no, I just want to have an interest and a bit of fun, then stop reading now, as nothing I write here will ever be of any use to you. If the answer is "Yes, I want to be a winning punter, I am sick of losing all the time", then we may be able to assist.
Patience & discipline is something you learn and teach your brain to react the right way in certain circumstances. For example, you see a horse with outstanding form, head and shoulders above the rest of the field in a 1550m race at Canterbury. You think, you bloody beauty, a good thing, how much do I have in my wallet. You check the barrier draw, and you see 11 next to the horses name. Now that in itself should top you wasting your money, but then you see the jockey, A Nobody (claiming 4kg). Surely that will stop you wasting you hard earned? Apprentice, unknown jockey, outside barrier from the worst starting point in Australian horse racing? Stop, move on there are other races. Make it a habit, every time you see a horse drawn in a double figure barrier, stop, move on to another race. Make it so much of a habit, your brain does not even stop and think about it in a months time. They don't win from out that wide, and if they do, you need double figure odds to justify you having a bet for value. Try this, try it for a week or so, and you will see the difference it makes. You won't even look at anything drawn wide, and this alone will assist your punting to profit.
After you eliminate backing horses from wide draws, start on jockeys. Write a list of jockeys you like, and ones you don't. When you come across a horse you like with A. Nobody on board, move on immediately, don't even think about it. Again, after a week or so, it will become habit that you will never again consider a horse with A. Nobody riding it.
Then try something else, say races of distances under 1200. Look at the distance of the race, if it is an 800m race at Ipswich, move on, forget it, plenty of other races to look at. Again, after a week or so, it will become habit, and we assure you it will assist you in becoming a more profitable punter.
Being the professional punter that you are, regularly research your staistics. Seek out the losers and work out why they lost. Find a pattern, say, every horse you backed last month in races longer than 1600m all lost. So, this month, don't even consider races with a distance longer than 1600m. Don't even look at them. You will find that in time, it will become a basic instinct not to look at them seriously, and not to bet in them. This will certainly assist you to become a more profitable punter.
The other important fact here is that you don't have to answer to anyone except yourself, how good or bad a punter you really are. Keeping your strict records as you do, you know how much you win or lose every day, week, month or year. 99% of people you talk to, will not believe you consistently win anyway, so why spruik the fact, and try to show them you are a profitable punter? Those 99% believe you lose, so trying to prove to them you win every week, will only make you try to hard, have too many bets, causing you to back more losers. Winning punters have fewer bets. FACT !! Keep telling yourself that, and it will indelibly be etched in your brain forever. And show the people you are with that youa re patient and disciplined, and that alone will sow a seed in their mind, that you are indeed a profitable punter.
It is extremely difficult to teach your brain patience & discipline in punting. However, what you can teach your brain is habit. Make rules, make them habitual, and you won't even think twice about them. You will then teach your brain and in turn yourself, to be patient and disciplined. Most punters are weak, especially those who have a drink while they punt. And the image of a big win, especially when on the drink, looks an ever exciting prospect.
You can teach your brain and yourself patience and discipline. Make it a habit, and it will come naturally. Don't be influenced by others or what they think. Allow them to be influenced by you, the patient and disciplined one.
We have a good thing for today at Colac. If you are interested in receiving our information daily, then please contact us here at profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Yesterday PASS members were treated to information regarding a very good 5yo mare who we predicted would win a Group 3 race at Caulfield. Her name was Coniston Gem, and she didn't let followers down and won impressively at the excellent odds of $4.10.
It is appropriate at this time to raise a very important issue when it comes to punting, and trying keep on the positive side of the leger. Over the past two weeks, there have been some very tough meetings, large and even fields, making it very tough for punters.
Now one of the biggest mistakes punters make, is having too many bets. It would have been very easy over the past couple of weeks for us to back a couple of horses every day, just for the sake of having a bet. And what would then happen, is that these bets, which would not have been good things, just hopeful bets, these horses would lose. And what happens when you hit a losing streak? Most punters will chase their money and have more bets. And that leads to backing even more losers. The more losers you back, the more money you lose, and the more the punter wants to chase his money and try to regain the losses. In the end, the punter is so far behind, not even a 50/1 winner will get him out of the hole he has dug for himself.
We have all been in similar situations. Down the pub on a Saturday afternoon. We had 3 good things for the afternoon, and only intended backing those 3 horses. The first one got trapped wide from an awkward barrier, and was beaten a nostril after hitting the front with 100m to go. Gee that was unlucky. The second one had a beautiful run in transit, third on the fence, but as the runs came around the outside, he was stuck on the fence an didn't get clear running until the final 50m. He flashed home to finish 3rd, a certainty beaten. Oh well, the third bet will get us out of trouble. Well, that is until, the 3kg claiming apprentice who was riding him, took off before acceptances dashed well clear before the field got into the straight, and was left a sitting duck for the run on horses and dropped out to finish a dismal 5th. Now we are dirty on the world. Bloody jockeys, they don't have a clue do they. And we have a quick sup of our 5th schooner and then grab for the form guide for a get out bet. And when the first get out bet we plucked from our semi drunken stupor runs second, we grab the beer in one hand, and the form guide in the other searching desparately for a winner. With wall to wall racing these days, ability to bet on anything until after midnight every day, we could lose the house by the time we stagger out of the pub. It doesn't seem to matter that the hours of form study the night before only came up with the original 3 horses, and we didn't actually like any other horses winning chances on the day. But hey, that was then when we had all the information at our finger tips, and had been concentrating totally on finding a winner. Now we are half tanked, have to appear to our mates we know what we are doing, we'll show them who the best punter is, won't we?
Okay, so how can we avoid this ever spiralling flood of money streaming out of our wallets?
Firstly, don't drink and punt. Not even on social occasions. Either go to the races or the pub to drink, or go there to punt. If you are drinking and socialising, and you only like 3 horses on the day, place your bets before you get to the venue, and make sure you have no more money to punt with for the afternoon after the three horses have raced. And if they do all lose, make sure you are with a group of mates who will not lend you any money. Neither a borrower nor a lender be.
Even if you are not at the pub or the races, and under the influence of alcohol, there is still always a burning desire inside us all to recoup any losses late in the day. And this is where patience & discipline comes into play. They are ambiguous objects you have to learn, and teach yourself to perform every day you are on the punt. You have to keep asking yourself, "Do you really want to win punting"? If the answer is no, I just want to have an interest and a bit of fun, then stop reading now, as nothing I write here will ever be of any use to you. If the answer is "Yes, I want to be a winning punter, I am sick of losing all the time", then we may be able to assist.
Patience & discipline is something you learn and teach your brain to react the right way in certain circumstances. For example, you see a horse with outstanding form, head and shoulders above the rest of the field in a 1550m race at Canterbury. You think, you bloody beauty, a good thing, how much do I have in my wallet. You check the barrier draw, and you see 11 next to the horses name. Now that in itself should top you wasting your money, but then you see the jockey, A Nobody (claiming 4kg). Surely that will stop you wasting you hard earned? Apprentice, unknown jockey, outside barrier from the worst starting point in Australian horse racing? Stop, move on there are other races. Make it a habit, every time you see a horse drawn in a double figure barrier, stop, move on to another race. Make it so much of a habit, your brain does not even stop and think about it in a months time. They don't win from out that wide, and if they do, you need double figure odds to justify you having a bet for value. Try this, try it for a week or so, and you will see the difference it makes. You won't even look at anything drawn wide, and this alone will assist your punting to profit.
After you eliminate backing horses from wide draws, start on jockeys. Write a list of jockeys you like, and ones you don't. When you come across a horse you like with A. Nobody on board, move on immediately, don't even think about it. Again, after a week or so, it will become habit that you will never again consider a horse with A. Nobody riding it.
Then try something else, say races of distances under 1200. Look at the distance of the race, if it is an 800m race at Ipswich, move on, forget it, plenty of other races to look at. Again, after a week or so, it will become habit, and we assure you it will assist you in becoming a more profitable punter.
Being the professional punter that you are, regularly research your staistics. Seek out the losers and work out why they lost. Find a pattern, say, every horse you backed last month in races longer than 1600m all lost. So, this month, don't even consider races with a distance longer than 1600m. Don't even look at them. You will find that in time, it will become a basic instinct not to look at them seriously, and not to bet in them. This will certainly assist you to become a more profitable punter.
The other important fact here is that you don't have to answer to anyone except yourself, how good or bad a punter you really are. Keeping your strict records as you do, you know how much you win or lose every day, week, month or year. 99% of people you talk to, will not believe you consistently win anyway, so why spruik the fact, and try to show them you are a profitable punter? Those 99% believe you lose, so trying to prove to them you win every week, will only make you try to hard, have too many bets, causing you to back more losers. Winning punters have fewer bets. FACT !! Keep telling yourself that, and it will indelibly be etched in your brain forever. And show the people you are with that youa re patient and disciplined, and that alone will sow a seed in their mind, that you are indeed a profitable punter.
It is extremely difficult to teach your brain patience & discipline in punting. However, what you can teach your brain is habit. Make rules, make them habitual, and you won't even think twice about them. You will then teach your brain and in turn yourself, to be patient and disciplined. Most punters are weak, especially those who have a drink while they punt. And the image of a big win, especially when on the drink, looks an ever exciting prospect.
You can teach your brain and yourself patience and discipline. Make it a habit, and it will come naturally. Don't be influenced by others or what they think. Allow them to be influenced by you, the patient and disciplined one.
We have a good thing for today at Colac. If you are interested in receiving our information daily, then please contact us here at profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
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