Caulfield Cup

The Caulfield Cup

If the Melbourne Cup is the race that stops a nation, then the Caulfield Cup is the race that stops 90% of the nation 17 days earlier. Always remembered for being the best horses race, the Caulfield Cup is as meaningful to rank & file punters as is the Melbourne Cup is to the once a year punter. The 2008 version as always brings together the best horses in Australia, coupled with the best from New Zealand, with a few European adventurers for good measure. It looks a great race on paper, barrier draws appeared to have really evened out the main winning chances, as we have become accustomed to, luck in running will play the most vital role.

The weather in Melbourne will be fine, the track will be dead, unfortunately irrigation has been again been used to "affect" the track. Hopefully by the first race this will not have any affect or bias on the results of any of the ten races at Caulfield, in particular the Cup.

There are more horses in race that cannot win, than have serious winning chances. This happens every year, the MRC want a capacity field, owners & trainers want their horse to run and who can blame them, the thrill of having a runner in the Caulfield Cup would fulfill most owners ultimate racing dream. Regrettably what this means, is that some serious winning hopefuls will not obtain the necessary luck to be able to win this prestigious event, with some horses with little or no winning hope, will simply get in the way of the good horses. And this is why the horse who obtains the best run, without interference, will win the 2008 Caulfield Cup.

Firstly let's attack who cannot win. Top weight Weekend Hussler has drawn extremely awkwardly in barrier 11, this is his first attempt at 2400m, he hasn't won beyond 1800m, so he will require every tiny little thing to go his way for him to win. From the barrier, he has to go forward, having never raced over the distance, he will be expecting a faster speed, and with no other known leader in the race, he may well even be forced to take up the running himself. Either way, he will use up plenty of petrol in the early stages, and will be a spent force when the others get serious at the 600m mark. No Weekend Hussler in the 2008 Caulfield Cup.

Prepost 2007 favourite Maldivian, who was scratched at the barrier, fronts up again in 2008, however his form this time around has not given supporters or punters a lot to become enthused about. In fact, his recent efforts have been very weak. From barrier 18, he will have to come across the field to get to the fence and lead early, he will pull fiercely and will use up all his energy in the initial 600m of the race. No Big Mal in 2008.

We then have to ask how & why a few others actually got into the race. Ice Chariot, Viewed, Fiumicino, Dolphin Jo, Riva San, Zagreb, Barbaricus, not to mention the emergencies, honestly have no winning chance, all they will do is get in the road of the cream. Yes, they qualified to gain a start under the rules, so they do deserve their moment of glory, let's hope they don't ruin the chances of another.

There are two European horses who have attained a start, neither of whom we can line up properly against the better Autralian & New Zealand horses. Mad Rush and All The Good will both require plenty of speed on, and they should get it, as there is always plenty of pace in a Caulfield Cup, 2008 will be no different. The big if is, have they settled in & acclimatised so they can perform at their peak? From experience, rarely do the European or Japanese perform unless they have had one feeler run before they peak. Both will run good races, doubt either can win first up in Australia.

New Zealand give us three realistic chances in the 2008 Caulfield Cup, or do they? Nom De Juere & Red Ruler quinellad the AJC Derby over 2400m in April, assuring both of a walk up start in the Caulfield Cup. How strong was that for? Considering the EI situation in Australia late 2007, many horses simply were not at their peak for the autumn carnival placing grave doubt on the form coming from it. Look at the Group 1 winners from the autumn, and only those who were EI free have gone on from there, most others have showed the form simply does not stand up. Both Nom De Jue & Red Ruler have failed to impress since the autumn, failing to win the major Group 1s in NZ. In saying that, both have undeniable chances in the 2008 Caulfield Cup, as the race is not strong, with Red Ruler from the inside obtaining a perfect run in transit. Unfortunately Nom De Jue has drawn 20, he will need everything to go his way to win. The third of the NZ contingent is the Steven McKee trained mare Boundless, doubtful she can beat Red Ruler, so happy to risk her.

Well, that doesn't leave us with too many reallistic chances, does it? 2007 winner Master O'Reilly, Turnbull Stakes victor Lottorio, 2007 runner up Douro Valley & the David Hayes trained master of the form reversal Guillotine. If someone had have told me 12 months ago Guillotine was a Caulfield Cup winner, I would have immediately signed them into the One Flew Over The Cuckoos Nest asylum. Would you have believed it? No, so let's leave him out as well.

The best guide to the Caulfield Cup has always been the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington a fornight before. Lottorio won well that day, sitting off the pace, then producing an exciting finishing burst that had Group 1 winner written all over it. He has an undeniable winning chance. However, he rises 1kg on that victory, plus the increase of 400m in distance, so there is a slight query there. He has drawn barrier 10, so will need luck to get scross to get a cosy run, a run that will be required to win a Caulfield Cup. Steven King is the man for that job, most experienced, happy to have him on anything I back at any time of the year, especially Cup time. Lottorio is in the race right up to his ears.

2007 runner up Douro Valley showed last week at Caulfield he is now fit and ready to show his best in the 2008 version by winning the WFA Caulfield Stakes. Ridden like the good thing he was, James Winks took the gelding straight to the front, to lead all the way over 200m. From barrier 2 tomorrow, Douro Valley will get the run of the race, and like last year, he will look the winner at the top of the straight and will run the 2400m right out. Douro valley a real hope of going one better in 2008.

2008 victor Master O'Reilly has only had two runs back from a spell to fit him for the 2008 assignment. However, he did have a mid year preparation, so only had a couple of weeks in the paddock and has been in work for as long as most of the others. His run behind Lottorio in the Turnbull was outstanding, meets him 1.5kg better and will strip much fitter for the outing. He has had two starts at Caulfield voer 2400m, both have resulted in wins. The only issues with him, is barrier 13 (he came from 6 last year to win after a cosy run and a great ride), and whether he is fit enough. His obvious target this year is the first Tuesday in November, however after his Turnbull effort, one simply cannot sell him short for 2008 Caulfield Cup, If Vlad Duric can get him across from the barrier one off the fence, then bring him into the race at the 800m, he is a serious winning chance.

Should be a terrific race, looking forward to it immensely, let's hope we don't have the drama we endured in 2007 in the lead up when Maldivian & Eskimo Queen were a late scratchings at the barrier. Our selections are:-

1 Master O'Reilly
2 Douro valley
3 Lottorio
4 Red Ruler

Best of luck to all those having a punt in the Caulfield Cup.

Saturday Winners

The Spring racing is really warming up now and with it the winners are starting to flow freely once again. It was a cold, dim, an almost puntless winter. However with all the decent horses back in work and racing at their peak, wet tracks all but obliterated from our memories, plus form lines holding up across the country, we can expect nice profits now from here until the end of March at least.

Three selections yesterday for three winners, the best being Deacon at Eagle Farm. Regrettably, all were very short, nevertheless, we rebuild our bank slowly after the winter losses. Our other two winners yesterday were at Rosehill Gardens in the shape of the unbeaten Kiloton & Charming Rogue. Both are heading toward an Epsom handicap start, obviously both can't win, although both should be competitive. The Epsom is shaping as an extremely good race this year, with Ashikaga and several other up and comers likely starters. Should be a terrific race.

Last Saturday the good thing of the day in Light Vision duely saluted at top fluctuation of $3.20. So we are certainly back in form just in time for the better spring races that lay ahead.

Our horses to follow are also firing, with Bon Hoffa winning last Saturday at Caulfield at better than $15 around the country. So again, plenty of winners flowing now the better horses and better tracks are around.

If you would like to be a part of all the winners, please contact us here at PASS passelections@bigpond.com

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

The Spring Is Finally Here

When we see the running of the J J Liston Stakes, it is all systems go for punters to take the on ramp toward the upcoming Spring Carnival of racing.

How good is Light Fantastic? The son of Danehill Dancer extended his unbeaten run to 5 on Saturday with his win the Liston and despite the prescence of Weekend Hustler, Light Fantastic showed he is a realistic contender for all the major WFA spring races. His main aim is the Cox Plate, the only concern with him being competitive in the race is lack of Moonee Valley experience. However, the Hustler is in the same boat there. The Feehan Stakes at the Valley in September may be an ideal race for both to become more acquainted with the tight turning hallowed turf where Australia's top WFA race is held each and every year.

One of the better runs at Caulfield on Saturday came from promising middle distance performer Light Vision. He won comfortably over 1600m, a distance well short of his best, however defeated plenty of Spring hopefuls, so should not be taken lightly through the coming months. He will be well trained and placed by Robert Smerdon, Light Vision is definitely one to follow.

Our major selection on Saturday came up at Belmont in the shape of Key Biscuit. He was desparately unlucky and should have won. He was in front a stride before the line, and in front a stride after the line, however Classic Lad got his nose down at the precise moment to nail the finish. This was after coming from a long way back, circling the field and running home strongly, so Key Biscuit will pay to follow, he will redeem himself next time out. Elliotto was also mentioned in our Saturday emails and for the second successive week saluted for our members at good odds of $2.80.

So with the Spring now upon us, heaps of winners will flowing as we approach the most profitable time of the year.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

Profitable Season For PASS Members

With the 2007/2008 racing season ending on July 31 the final results for the number one selections were:-


Selections 108

Winners 46

Winning Strike Rate 42.59%

Average Winning Price $2.78

POI 18.41%


So for the second successive season, the top PASS selections have shown considerable profit for the members. Unfortunately we finished the year very slowly, with an 8 bet losing sequence, which certainly affected the overall figures. Winter is always a bad time of year to be punting, with lesser quality horses, rain affected tracks along with plenty of the better class jockeys having holidays.

Nevertheless, the pressure is on once again to maintain profit levels for our members in 2008/2009. We began extremely well yesterday, when the top selection Burdekin Blues saluted easily at Eagle Farm, while the other tip Elliotto at Belmont was also victorious.

If you would like to become a member, please contact us here passelection@bigpond.com and we will assist you to show a profit punting on Australian gallops.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

McMahon Lands Helideck Safely for PASS Members

Recently returned from a shoulder injury he may be, however young jockey Ric McMahon rode the perfect race to score a sensational win on Helideck in the major sprint at Doomben on Saturday afternoon. PASS memebers were informed in their Saturday morning email that Helideck was one of the best bets around the country that afternoon. He went on to win by over 2 lengths, paying top tote of $5.10, with SP at $5. However shrewd punters were able to secure fixed odds earlier in the day of $5.50 & even $6 with Sportsbet. So another very successful day for PASS members. Helideck now will be one of the strong fancies for the Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap to be run in 3 weeks at Eagle Farm.

The race was marred by a shocking fall at the 250m mark when the Bart Cummings trained Antidotes came to grief along with Group 1 winning hoop Luke Nolen. The fall looked far worse than Nolen's injuries have evolved, as Nolen only requires palate surgery as well as a full knee reconstruction. This is a far better outcome than it appeared soon after the fall on Saturday where Nolen lay unconscious on the turf for over 5 minutes. Our best wishes for a speedy recovery to Luke from all here at PASS & Gallopers.

The PASS special on Saturday was Viewed in the Group 1 Doomben Cup, however the Bart Cumming trained 4yo entire got too far out fo his ground, and despite making up many, many lengths in the straight was beaten out of a place by the Michael Moroney trained Sarerra. Not too many horses made up a lot of ground on Saturday, so Viewed will be better suited at Eagle Farm over the 2400m of the P J O'Shea Stakes & Brisbane Cup.

With the Brisbane winter carnival now in full swing, there is alwasy plenty of value to be found with winners in this period. We will endeavour to find a few more over comings weeks at Doomben on 10,000 day as well as at headquarters when the carnival shifts to Eagle Farm.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

A Magical Day for PASS Members

It was certainly a magical day for PASS members yesteday after Magical Dane saluted at Balaklava. He looked a class above his rivals and was given out as the good thing of the day in our emails yesterday morning. Magical Dane did not let us down, as predicted jumping straight to the front as soon as the gates opened and although challenged in the middle stages was never headed to go on to win clearly and convincingly.

The bookies were quite generous betting $3.00 top fluctuation although he did firm in the market to start at $2.40. Top tote was $2.70 on Super TAB, with $2.40 the dividend on the other two totes. The win of Magical Dane definitely removes all memories of the horror run we endured through March & April where we found only 1 winner in 8 selections. The last two good things have now won easily so we are certainly back on track.

We have now produced exactly 100 selections this racing season for our members, resulting in a total of 46 winners at an Average Winning Price of $2.78 which gives us an overall POI of 27.88% using level stakes.

To clarify a pertinent point about our statistics, to determine AWP we use the average price of the three totes in Australia. We do not use top tote exclusvely, nor do we use top fluctuation exclusively as either which would incorrectly raise the AWP to a disproportionate level, making the statistics look far better than they actually are. Many tipping services & ratings programmers fudge these figures by using a higher dividend than most punters are able to obtain. For example, yesterday, the three tote divis for Magical Dane were $2.70, $2.40 & $2.40. The average of the three equates to $2.50, and that is the price which appears on our results page of the web site.

http://www.gallopers.com.au/misc/PASSresults0708.html

The other pertinent point about the statistics is that we only select one horse per race. So our Winning Strike Rate published is exactly that, the number of winners compared with the number of selections. There are plenty of services out there who tell all and sundry about how many winners they select, boasting massive WSR's without also offering the information they made 4 or 5 selections in the one race.

So if you are serious about winning on the punt, then PASS is clearly the most transparent & profitable service to be associated with. If you would like to be part of the winners, please contact us at passelection@bigpond.com so we can assist to make a profit from punting.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

Update

Well, it's been a long time since our last post, much longer than we realised. After enduring all the problems associated with the EI outbreak, massive loss of business both through horse sales & agistment opportunities, we are finally getting back on our feet. We currently have 15 agisters here at Massie Lodge, which is a great improvement on the 4 we had throughout EI. Those 4 didn't go anywhere near covering our costs, however we are slowly getting back to normal, albeit being extremely busy.

The only thing that kept us going throughout the outbreak was the profit made via punting, without it, we would have gone broke for sure and certain. In saying that, punting issues are changing rapidly at present, now imperative the punter keeps abreast of these issues on a weekly basis. We will endeavour to update this blog on a much more regular basis from here on in.

PASS is travelling along extremely well with a current Winning Strike Rate of 45.45%. The Average Winning Price is $2.79, giving us a POI of over 26%. There has been a real hiccup over the last 6 weeks or so, which has seen the WSR & POI drop considerably, however we are confident we have overcome a few little hurdles we experienced and are now well & truely back on track.

Yesterday our sepcial of the day was Royal Discretion in the Hawkesbury Guineas. A patient ride by Nash Rawiller saw the Gai Waterhouse 3yo gelding kick clear in the straight without ever looking like being beaten. Top tote was $2.50, bookies offered a little better on track which was terrific odds about a good thing. Royal Discretion broke a long run of outs for us, only 1 other winner from our previous 8 specials, and that winner was a 2s on shot.

We have a new email address for those interested in contacting us, as the old Austarnet one continually played up:-

mailto:passelection@bigpond.com

So please feel free to let us know if you would like to be part of the winning team here at PASS, our profits will continue and should increase from here on in. We will also provide more previews and reviews than we have over the past 6 months, and will also have plenty of horses to follow for punters to profit from. We will avoid knowingly selecting odds on favourites, we will always endeavour to inform members of runners who will provide reasonable odds from which punters are able to profit.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.