Recently returned from a shoulder injury he may be, however young jockey Ric McMahon rode the perfect race to score a sensational win on Helideck in the major sprint at Doomben on Saturday afternoon. PASS memebers were informed in their Saturday morning email that Helideck was one of the best bets around the country that afternoon. He went on to win by over 2 lengths, paying top tote of $5.10, with SP at $5. However shrewd punters were able to secure fixed odds earlier in the day of $5.50 & even $6 with Sportsbet. So another very successful day for PASS members. Helideck now will be one of the strong fancies for the Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap to be run in 3 weeks at Eagle Farm.
The race was marred by a shocking fall at the 250m mark when the Bart Cummings trained Antidotes came to grief along with Group 1 winning hoop Luke Nolen. The fall looked far worse than Nolen's injuries have evolved, as Nolen only requires palate surgery as well as a full knee reconstruction. This is a far better outcome than it appeared soon after the fall on Saturday where Nolen lay unconscious on the turf for over 5 minutes. Our best wishes for a speedy recovery to Luke from all here at PASS & Gallopers.
The PASS special on Saturday was Viewed in the Group 1 Doomben Cup, however the Bart Cumming trained 4yo entire got too far out fo his ground, and despite making up many, many lengths in the straight was beaten out of a place by the Michael Moroney trained Sarerra. Not too many horses made up a lot of ground on Saturday, so Viewed will be better suited at Eagle Farm over the 2400m of the P J O'Shea Stakes & Brisbane Cup.
With the Brisbane winter carnival now in full swing, there is alwasy plenty of value to be found with winners in this period. We will endeavour to find a few more over comings weeks at Doomben on 10,000 day as well as at headquarters when the carnival shifts to Eagle Farm.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Monday, May 19, 2008
Thursday, May 15, 2008
A Magical Day for PASS Members
It was certainly a magical day for PASS members yesteday after Magical Dane saluted at Balaklava. He looked a class above his rivals and was given out as the good thing of the day in our emails yesterday morning. Magical Dane did not let us down, as predicted jumping straight to the front as soon as the gates opened and although challenged in the middle stages was never headed to go on to win clearly and convincingly.
The bookies were quite generous betting $3.00 top fluctuation although he did firm in the market to start at $2.40. Top tote was $2.70 on Super TAB, with $2.40 the dividend on the other two totes. The win of Magical Dane definitely removes all memories of the horror run we endured through March & April where we found only 1 winner in 8 selections. The last two good things have now won easily so we are certainly back on track.
We have now produced exactly 100 selections this racing season for our members, resulting in a total of 46 winners at an Average Winning Price of $2.78 which gives us an overall POI of 27.88% using level stakes.
To clarify a pertinent point about our statistics, to determine AWP we use the average price of the three totes in Australia. We do not use top tote exclusvely, nor do we use top fluctuation exclusively as either which would incorrectly raise the AWP to a disproportionate level, making the statistics look far better than they actually are. Many tipping services & ratings programmers fudge these figures by using a higher dividend than most punters are able to obtain. For example, yesterday, the three tote divis for Magical Dane were $2.70, $2.40 & $2.40. The average of the three equates to $2.50, and that is the price which appears on our results page of the web site.
http://www.gallopers.com.au/misc/PASSresults0708.html
The other pertinent point about the statistics is that we only select one horse per race. So our Winning Strike Rate published is exactly that, the number of winners compared with the number of selections. There are plenty of services out there who tell all and sundry about how many winners they select, boasting massive WSR's without also offering the information they made 4 or 5 selections in the one race.
So if you are serious about winning on the punt, then PASS is clearly the most transparent & profitable service to be associated with. If you would like to be part of the winners, please contact us at passelection@bigpond.com so we can assist to make a profit from punting.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
The bookies were quite generous betting $3.00 top fluctuation although he did firm in the market to start at $2.40. Top tote was $2.70 on Super TAB, with $2.40 the dividend on the other two totes. The win of Magical Dane definitely removes all memories of the horror run we endured through March & April where we found only 1 winner in 8 selections. The last two good things have now won easily so we are certainly back on track.
We have now produced exactly 100 selections this racing season for our members, resulting in a total of 46 winners at an Average Winning Price of $2.78 which gives us an overall POI of 27.88% using level stakes.
To clarify a pertinent point about our statistics, to determine AWP we use the average price of the three totes in Australia. We do not use top tote exclusvely, nor do we use top fluctuation exclusively as either which would incorrectly raise the AWP to a disproportionate level, making the statistics look far better than they actually are. Many tipping services & ratings programmers fudge these figures by using a higher dividend than most punters are able to obtain. For example, yesterday, the three tote divis for Magical Dane were $2.70, $2.40 & $2.40. The average of the three equates to $2.50, and that is the price which appears on our results page of the web site.
http://www.gallopers.com.au/misc/PASSresults0708.html
The other pertinent point about the statistics is that we only select one horse per race. So our Winning Strike Rate published is exactly that, the number of winners compared with the number of selections. There are plenty of services out there who tell all and sundry about how many winners they select, boasting massive WSR's without also offering the information they made 4 or 5 selections in the one race.
So if you are serious about winning on the punt, then PASS is clearly the most transparent & profitable service to be associated with. If you would like to be part of the winners, please contact us at passelection@bigpond.com so we can assist to make a profit from punting.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Sunday, May 11, 2008
Update
Well, it's been a long time since our last post, much longer than we realised. After enduring all the problems associated with the EI outbreak, massive loss of business both through horse sales & agistment opportunities, we are finally getting back on our feet. We currently have 15 agisters here at Massie Lodge, which is a great improvement on the 4 we had throughout EI. Those 4 didn't go anywhere near covering our costs, however we are slowly getting back to normal, albeit being extremely busy.
The only thing that kept us going throughout the outbreak was the profit made via punting, without it, we would have gone broke for sure and certain. In saying that, punting issues are changing rapidly at present, now imperative the punter keeps abreast of these issues on a weekly basis. We will endeavour to update this blog on a much more regular basis from here on in.
PASS is travelling along extremely well with a current Winning Strike Rate of 45.45%. The Average Winning Price is $2.79, giving us a POI of over 26%. There has been a real hiccup over the last 6 weeks or so, which has seen the WSR & POI drop considerably, however we are confident we have overcome a few little hurdles we experienced and are now well & truely back on track.
Yesterday our sepcial of the day was Royal Discretion in the Hawkesbury Guineas. A patient ride by Nash Rawiller saw the Gai Waterhouse 3yo gelding kick clear in the straight without ever looking like being beaten. Top tote was $2.50, bookies offered a little better on track which was terrific odds about a good thing. Royal Discretion broke a long run of outs for us, only 1 other winner from our previous 8 specials, and that winner was a 2s on shot.
We have a new email address for those interested in contacting us, as the old Austarnet one continually played up:-
mailto:passelection@bigpond.com
So please feel free to let us know if you would like to be part of the winning team here at PASS, our profits will continue and should increase from here on in. We will also provide more previews and reviews than we have over the past 6 months, and will also have plenty of horses to follow for punters to profit from. We will avoid knowingly selecting odds on favourites, we will always endeavour to inform members of runners who will provide reasonable odds from which punters are able to profit.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
The only thing that kept us going throughout the outbreak was the profit made via punting, without it, we would have gone broke for sure and certain. In saying that, punting issues are changing rapidly at present, now imperative the punter keeps abreast of these issues on a weekly basis. We will endeavour to update this blog on a much more regular basis from here on in.
PASS is travelling along extremely well with a current Winning Strike Rate of 45.45%. The Average Winning Price is $2.79, giving us a POI of over 26%. There has been a real hiccup over the last 6 weeks or so, which has seen the WSR & POI drop considerably, however we are confident we have overcome a few little hurdles we experienced and are now well & truely back on track.
Yesterday our sepcial of the day was Royal Discretion in the Hawkesbury Guineas. A patient ride by Nash Rawiller saw the Gai Waterhouse 3yo gelding kick clear in the straight without ever looking like being beaten. Top tote was $2.50, bookies offered a little better on track which was terrific odds about a good thing. Royal Discretion broke a long run of outs for us, only 1 other winner from our previous 8 specials, and that winner was a 2s on shot.
We have a new email address for those interested in contacting us, as the old Austarnet one continually played up:-
mailto:passelection@bigpond.com
So please feel free to let us know if you would like to be part of the winning team here at PASS, our profits will continue and should increase from here on in. We will also provide more previews and reviews than we have over the past 6 months, and will also have plenty of horses to follow for punters to profit from. We will avoid knowingly selecting odds on favourites, we will always endeavour to inform members of runners who will provide reasonable odds from which punters are able to profit.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Friday, November 2, 2007
Derby Day Preview
We dearly wish we knew how the track will play prior to posting this, however we are not mind readers and cannot predict the future. Let's preface this by saying these are our thoughts before scratchings, track conditions, and any race bias is known.
Maribyrnong Plate
Always a tough affair with three first starters to worry about. Of what we have seen, Exceedingly Good is the one to beat, however we wouldn't be jumping in at the $2.10 on offer. He only beat Nato by 1.3 lengths, and he is $13 fixed odds at present, far better each way value. David Hayes has three runners, with Craig WIlliams on the filly Ballerina Girl which is a good lead as to his best hope in the race. She is around the $3.50 mark at present and would be backable at those odds or better. Hard to see any of the other raced division figuring, which leaves us with the Rick Hore-Lacey trained Commissioned, a General Nedym colt. The breed always race well fresh and Rick would not be starting the horse unless certain he was ready to win, look out for any solid market moves for him. We'll take the fave on here at the odds and at our own peril.
Carbine Club Stakes
Lee Freedman and Mick Price hold the key here. Freedman has put stable jockey Corey Brown on Teskara who was a nice winner two starts back at Geelong, that is a lead in itself. He ran a nice 3rd at Caulfield after that, however will need luck from barrier 11. Electromotive's form is outstanding. He beat Moreton Bay by over 2 lengths two starts back, and Moreton Bay has won 2 straight since in easy fashion. Then he beat a very strong field on Moe Cup day, had he drawn an alley tomorrow, he was the one to beat. We would think those two have the wood on Freedman's other runner Moment Of Truth, although he did beat the older gallopers leading all the way last start over the 1600m. Now, Mick Price's two runners will both go very close. Stable jockey Craig Newitt went to Kilmore to ride Rightfully Yours at his first start, only to be beaten by stablemate Sound Journey who has now won 3 on end in impressive fashion. He then beat a very strong field of maidens at Ballarat, and Newitt has chosen to ride him over stablemate Schilling who he rode to victory at Cranbourne over 1400m last start. Plenty of other chances in the race including Montonari and Blue Sky. We'll take the jockey's leads here and suggest Rightfully Yours and Teskara will fight out the race.
SAAB Quality (formerly the time honoured Hotham Handicap)
Last chance for this lot of one paced plodders to get into the Melbourne Cup. The Geelong Cup form should stand up here as the two who quinellad the race had the best form going in there. The Fuzz and Zavite beat the rest clearly that day, and both have form around Master O'Reilly, Dolphin Jo and Light Vision, so that will do us. The NZ'er Sculptor might run well, Pacino will run his usual honest race, while we can expect an improvement from Chollula. If the track is playing to front runners, then Zavite will be a good thing, if playing to run on horses, The Fuzz might just nail him on the line.
Wakeful Stakes
Hopefully by this time of the afternoon, we are aware of how the track is playing and where the best running will be. If run on horses are being allowed to win, then Serious Speed looks almost unbeatable. The $4.40 on offer earlier in the week looked luxurious to say the least, she is now into $3.50 and will more than likely start shorter tomorrow. However, she will get back, has 57kg to lump, first time at 2000m, a few question marks that is for sure. Nothing she beat in the 1000 Guineas will get near he tomorrow unless track bias assists them. Antarctic Miss's run in the Guineas was outstanding, she will lead tomorrow and despite the dreadful draw, will be in front with 200m to go. If the track is playing to leaders, she will win, so at the $15 currently on offer, she is a good each way bet. The only other chance in the race is Katherine Gold. She won well at Caulfield last start and given a good run from her nice draw with Michael Rodd aboard will be in the finish tomorrow. Remember, look for prevailing track bias, then bet accordingly.
Ascot Vale Stakes
Weekend Hustler has plenty against him tomorrow, and none of his obstacles are his opponents. He has not raced for 3 weeks, he steps back from 1600m to the 1200m which is a massive task for any horse and trainer, and has an outside draw. The straight races are a lottery at the best of times, so Brad Rawiller will have to have his mind made up as to which side of the track he will head for. With only 9 runners, probably all will go to the inside, as long as it is not too badly cut up come jump time. However, at $1.50, Weekend Hustler is no betting proposition despite being classes above his rivals. Incumbent will improve tomorrow and could be an each way chance, along with Scenic Blast and Shrewd Rhythm. No bet race for us.
MacKinnon Stakes
This is a good betting race as most of the Melbourne Cup hopefuls will just be having a pipe opener for Tuesday. This leaves very few winning chances, especially considering El Segundo will not run (not that he could win, see a previous blog post). Haradasun, Pillar of Hercules, Captious and Devil Moon are the only winning chances. Given the drama surrounding Pillar Of Hercules, his ownership issues and auction sale today for $1.8m, it is impossible seeing him winning, despite such a light weight. If there is on pace bias, then Devil Moon will go close, if run on bias, then swoopers could hold the key. Haradasun will sit just off Devil Moon and have the sitting shot. If he took no harm from his Cox Plate 3rd, then he is the one to beat. Captious will run a great race at big odds, and if the track is playing on an even keel, then he will give a great sight at nice odds.
VRC Derby
Most of these horses have not really turned three as yet, so plenty of questions still to be asked. Some have the right pedigree for running out a strong 2500m, others certainly do not. The favourite is Marching, by Commands, after his emphatic victory in the strong lead up race at Moonee Valley last Saturday. However, Marching is the first of the Commands to place at further than 1600m, let alone win. There is nothing in his pedigree to suggest he will run 2500m, as there are no winners past 1600. If the race is a sit and sprint, then he is in it up to his ears, if there is a lot of pace on, then he will flounder. Will there be pace? We reckon there will be with 13 runners in the Blue Ribband. The start is only 150m from the first turn so those drawn out wide will have to go forward in an attempt to get across otherwise they get trapped wide around a 1600m bend, so that alone should ensure some pace. Marching from barrier 2 will get shuffled back and he will have to be good to win. So, who will the run on horses be? Littorio, Stockade, Best Beware, Kibbutz and Villain are probably the best of these. However please remeber, take close heed as to how the track is playing before making any punting decisions. If on pace bias exists, then a sit and sprint Marching has an excellent chance of victory. If the fence is off, and the winners are coming out wide, then Littorio and Villain are probably the two.
Myer Classic
We reluctantly called this race by the correct name, as it was only introduced a couple of years ago and has little or no history. Looks a benefit for Divine Madonna unless horses cannot make ground on the day. At level weights she is a weighted certainty, barrier 12 will make no difference as she will get back to nearly last anyway. We are stunned bookies are offering black figures about her. Unfortunately we won't know her fate until after 5 or 6 races are run tomorrow. Of the rest it is a lottery. If the track is playing to on pace runners, then Cinque Cento will race on or close to the lead, and she has been running in far superior company to her opposition other than Divine Madonna.
The Salinger
Had to call this one by the sponsors name because it has a different sponsor almost every year. Back in the 60s it was called the Craven A Stakes, that is how long the VRC has been selling off traditionalism. Straight 6 race, track bias the key, inside or outside? Inside, Stanzout goes very close to winning, his form excellent, well drawn, will get a good run, winner here two starts back, plenty to like about him. However if the best going is on the outside, he has no hope. Typhoon Zed in the same boat, has a good chance if inside is favoured. Tesbury Jack is drawn the centre, giving him a good option to go either way, and his first up win was a nice effort. Of the outside brigade, Shadoways, Storm Signal have good chances.
Ellerston Capital Stakes
Now this is a good race with a couple of very good horses involved. Top weight Royal Ida is fitter now after two runs in Adelaide and is back to peak form. Barrier is a worry, however he'll get back and run home strongly if the bias favours him. Lord Of The Dance gave nothing else a chance at Caulfield last start. We jumped on one start early with him, however if he runs up to that effort he won't be getting beaten tomorrow. He will race on pace so is the one if the track is playing to front runners. The dark horse here is Count To Zero. Forget he ever went around at Caulfield, he was only beaten just under 4 lenths after geting too far back and never seeing daylight at any stage. He will improve tomorrow and has a great chance here at $14 currently on offer.
Well, those are our thoughts for tomorrow's Flemington meeting. Please tread very warily early in the day tomorrow, check all races closely, work out any bias, and use that evidence you see to assist your punting.
We have two good things at Ascot tomorrow, plus another elsehwere in the country. Please contact us here profselections@austarnet.com.au if you would like to back some winners tomorrow.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Maribyrnong Plate
Always a tough affair with three first starters to worry about. Of what we have seen, Exceedingly Good is the one to beat, however we wouldn't be jumping in at the $2.10 on offer. He only beat Nato by 1.3 lengths, and he is $13 fixed odds at present, far better each way value. David Hayes has three runners, with Craig WIlliams on the filly Ballerina Girl which is a good lead as to his best hope in the race. She is around the $3.50 mark at present and would be backable at those odds or better. Hard to see any of the other raced division figuring, which leaves us with the Rick Hore-Lacey trained Commissioned, a General Nedym colt. The breed always race well fresh and Rick would not be starting the horse unless certain he was ready to win, look out for any solid market moves for him. We'll take the fave on here at the odds and at our own peril.
Carbine Club Stakes
Lee Freedman and Mick Price hold the key here. Freedman has put stable jockey Corey Brown on Teskara who was a nice winner two starts back at Geelong, that is a lead in itself. He ran a nice 3rd at Caulfield after that, however will need luck from barrier 11. Electromotive's form is outstanding. He beat Moreton Bay by over 2 lengths two starts back, and Moreton Bay has won 2 straight since in easy fashion. Then he beat a very strong field on Moe Cup day, had he drawn an alley tomorrow, he was the one to beat. We would think those two have the wood on Freedman's other runner Moment Of Truth, although he did beat the older gallopers leading all the way last start over the 1600m. Now, Mick Price's two runners will both go very close. Stable jockey Craig Newitt went to Kilmore to ride Rightfully Yours at his first start, only to be beaten by stablemate Sound Journey who has now won 3 on end in impressive fashion. He then beat a very strong field of maidens at Ballarat, and Newitt has chosen to ride him over stablemate Schilling who he rode to victory at Cranbourne over 1400m last start. Plenty of other chances in the race including Montonari and Blue Sky. We'll take the jockey's leads here and suggest Rightfully Yours and Teskara will fight out the race.
SAAB Quality (formerly the time honoured Hotham Handicap)
Last chance for this lot of one paced plodders to get into the Melbourne Cup. The Geelong Cup form should stand up here as the two who quinellad the race had the best form going in there. The Fuzz and Zavite beat the rest clearly that day, and both have form around Master O'Reilly, Dolphin Jo and Light Vision, so that will do us. The NZ'er Sculptor might run well, Pacino will run his usual honest race, while we can expect an improvement from Chollula. If the track is playing to front runners, then Zavite will be a good thing, if playing to run on horses, The Fuzz might just nail him on the line.
Wakeful Stakes
Hopefully by this time of the afternoon, we are aware of how the track is playing and where the best running will be. If run on horses are being allowed to win, then Serious Speed looks almost unbeatable. The $4.40 on offer earlier in the week looked luxurious to say the least, she is now into $3.50 and will more than likely start shorter tomorrow. However, she will get back, has 57kg to lump, first time at 2000m, a few question marks that is for sure. Nothing she beat in the 1000 Guineas will get near he tomorrow unless track bias assists them. Antarctic Miss's run in the Guineas was outstanding, she will lead tomorrow and despite the dreadful draw, will be in front with 200m to go. If the track is playing to leaders, she will win, so at the $15 currently on offer, she is a good each way bet. The only other chance in the race is Katherine Gold. She won well at Caulfield last start and given a good run from her nice draw with Michael Rodd aboard will be in the finish tomorrow. Remember, look for prevailing track bias, then bet accordingly.
Ascot Vale Stakes
Weekend Hustler has plenty against him tomorrow, and none of his obstacles are his opponents. He has not raced for 3 weeks, he steps back from 1600m to the 1200m which is a massive task for any horse and trainer, and has an outside draw. The straight races are a lottery at the best of times, so Brad Rawiller will have to have his mind made up as to which side of the track he will head for. With only 9 runners, probably all will go to the inside, as long as it is not too badly cut up come jump time. However, at $1.50, Weekend Hustler is no betting proposition despite being classes above his rivals. Incumbent will improve tomorrow and could be an each way chance, along with Scenic Blast and Shrewd Rhythm. No bet race for us.
MacKinnon Stakes
This is a good betting race as most of the Melbourne Cup hopefuls will just be having a pipe opener for Tuesday. This leaves very few winning chances, especially considering El Segundo will not run (not that he could win, see a previous blog post). Haradasun, Pillar of Hercules, Captious and Devil Moon are the only winning chances. Given the drama surrounding Pillar Of Hercules, his ownership issues and auction sale today for $1.8m, it is impossible seeing him winning, despite such a light weight. If there is on pace bias, then Devil Moon will go close, if run on bias, then swoopers could hold the key. Haradasun will sit just off Devil Moon and have the sitting shot. If he took no harm from his Cox Plate 3rd, then he is the one to beat. Captious will run a great race at big odds, and if the track is playing on an even keel, then he will give a great sight at nice odds.
VRC Derby
Most of these horses have not really turned three as yet, so plenty of questions still to be asked. Some have the right pedigree for running out a strong 2500m, others certainly do not. The favourite is Marching, by Commands, after his emphatic victory in the strong lead up race at Moonee Valley last Saturday. However, Marching is the first of the Commands to place at further than 1600m, let alone win. There is nothing in his pedigree to suggest he will run 2500m, as there are no winners past 1600. If the race is a sit and sprint, then he is in it up to his ears, if there is a lot of pace on, then he will flounder. Will there be pace? We reckon there will be with 13 runners in the Blue Ribband. The start is only 150m from the first turn so those drawn out wide will have to go forward in an attempt to get across otherwise they get trapped wide around a 1600m bend, so that alone should ensure some pace. Marching from barrier 2 will get shuffled back and he will have to be good to win. So, who will the run on horses be? Littorio, Stockade, Best Beware, Kibbutz and Villain are probably the best of these. However please remeber, take close heed as to how the track is playing before making any punting decisions. If on pace bias exists, then a sit and sprint Marching has an excellent chance of victory. If the fence is off, and the winners are coming out wide, then Littorio and Villain are probably the two.
Myer Classic
We reluctantly called this race by the correct name, as it was only introduced a couple of years ago and has little or no history. Looks a benefit for Divine Madonna unless horses cannot make ground on the day. At level weights she is a weighted certainty, barrier 12 will make no difference as she will get back to nearly last anyway. We are stunned bookies are offering black figures about her. Unfortunately we won't know her fate until after 5 or 6 races are run tomorrow. Of the rest it is a lottery. If the track is playing to on pace runners, then Cinque Cento will race on or close to the lead, and she has been running in far superior company to her opposition other than Divine Madonna.
The Salinger
Had to call this one by the sponsors name because it has a different sponsor almost every year. Back in the 60s it was called the Craven A Stakes, that is how long the VRC has been selling off traditionalism. Straight 6 race, track bias the key, inside or outside? Inside, Stanzout goes very close to winning, his form excellent, well drawn, will get a good run, winner here two starts back, plenty to like about him. However if the best going is on the outside, he has no hope. Typhoon Zed in the same boat, has a good chance if inside is favoured. Tesbury Jack is drawn the centre, giving him a good option to go either way, and his first up win was a nice effort. Of the outside brigade, Shadoways, Storm Signal have good chances.
Ellerston Capital Stakes
Now this is a good race with a couple of very good horses involved. Top weight Royal Ida is fitter now after two runs in Adelaide and is back to peak form. Barrier is a worry, however he'll get back and run home strongly if the bias favours him. Lord Of The Dance gave nothing else a chance at Caulfield last start. We jumped on one start early with him, however if he runs up to that effort he won't be getting beaten tomorrow. He will race on pace so is the one if the track is playing to front runners. The dark horse here is Count To Zero. Forget he ever went around at Caulfield, he was only beaten just under 4 lenths after geting too far back and never seeing daylight at any stage. He will improve tomorrow and has a great chance here at $14 currently on offer.
Well, those are our thoughts for tomorrow's Flemington meeting. Please tread very warily early in the day tomorrow, check all races closely, work out any bias, and use that evidence you see to assist your punting.
We have two good things at Ascot tomorrow, plus another elsehwere in the country. Please contact us here profselections@austarnet.com.au if you would like to back some winners tomorrow.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Fair Race Tracks For All Horses
Every year around Melbourne Cup time, this issue raises its ugly head. Why? Because Racing Victoria issue an edict to every course manager to prepare race tracks to a dead (4) level. This ensures the sting is out of the ground giving horses softer going to place their feet when racing. So track managers water race courses to obtain the dead rating.
Well, we have to ask why this issue is raised every year, and why Racing Victoria issue this edict. There are two reasons why. Firstly, to appease overseas horses, especially those from Europe who are used to very soft race tracks. In fact, Racing Victoria guarantee the overseas raiders won't face hard, fast surfaces come Melbourne Cup time, ensuring a quality line up come the first Tuesday in November. The second reason tracks are watered is to appease high profile trainers who have good quality gallopers who are racing with major leg or feet problems. These Australian trainers march out this time every year inisiting track managers water, no doctor, race courses to give their horses more of a winning chance, as the trainer knows full well on a good to fast track the horses problems will not allow it to run to its full potential. And with the huge prizemoney on offer, trainers want their horses racing for these riches and to be competitive.
Again, we have to ask why? Rain affected or watered race tracks are prone to bias. Some are affected to favour on pace on fence runners giving back markers little or no hope, other rain affected tracks favour the run on horses who swoop out wide on the track giving leaders near the fence no hope. Why would any one want any sort of bias on Derby Day, Melbourne Cup day, or any day of racing for that matter.
The fact is, the majority (silent majority, non lobbying majority) would prefer a good racing surface, every day of the year. And rightly so. The best and fairest racing surface is a GOOD track. A good track should be prepared whenever and wherever possible, so every horse is allowed to run on its merits and have every possible winning opportunity.
The racing surfaces prepared by Victorian track managers are biased toward the overseas challengers and the high profile local trainers. When Australian horses travel to Hong Kong, or England to race, they cop whatever is dished up to them come race day. Our trainers certainly have no say or influence over how tracks are prepared. However Racing Victoria panders to overseas horses giving them the best track conditions, the ones they are used to at home, the ones that are in their favour, the ones they were promised.
Look at Werribee Cup day yesterday. It was the biggest joke of a track that we have witnessed since Flemington on Turnbull Stakes day when the fence (due to incessant watering) was a complete no go zone. Werribee yesterday favoured leaders, or on pace on fence horses. No horse made ground out wide, no horses won from further than two off the fence.
So, after the debacle of Flemington a month ago, Werribee yesterday, we now approach the biggest week of racing in Australia, Melbourne Cup week, when 4 meetings are held at headquarters in the space of 8 days. If Flemington plays on Saturday, anywhere like it did on Turnbull Stakes day, punters face massive losses. And if the track is biased on Derby Day, the first day of the carnival, then it will only get worse for the following three days.
Let's hope for every punters sake, the track at Flemington plays fairly to all runners for the next week. Hopefully tracks are not doctored so they become rain affected. This will give all punters the opportunity to find that elusive winner without worrying about how the track might play.
May the best horses win.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Well, we have to ask why this issue is raised every year, and why Racing Victoria issue this edict. There are two reasons why. Firstly, to appease overseas horses, especially those from Europe who are used to very soft race tracks. In fact, Racing Victoria guarantee the overseas raiders won't face hard, fast surfaces come Melbourne Cup time, ensuring a quality line up come the first Tuesday in November. The second reason tracks are watered is to appease high profile trainers who have good quality gallopers who are racing with major leg or feet problems. These Australian trainers march out this time every year inisiting track managers water, no doctor, race courses to give their horses more of a winning chance, as the trainer knows full well on a good to fast track the horses problems will not allow it to run to its full potential. And with the huge prizemoney on offer, trainers want their horses racing for these riches and to be competitive.
Again, we have to ask why? Rain affected or watered race tracks are prone to bias. Some are affected to favour on pace on fence runners giving back markers little or no hope, other rain affected tracks favour the run on horses who swoop out wide on the track giving leaders near the fence no hope. Why would any one want any sort of bias on Derby Day, Melbourne Cup day, or any day of racing for that matter.
The fact is, the majority (silent majority, non lobbying majority) would prefer a good racing surface, every day of the year. And rightly so. The best and fairest racing surface is a GOOD track. A good track should be prepared whenever and wherever possible, so every horse is allowed to run on its merits and have every possible winning opportunity.
The racing surfaces prepared by Victorian track managers are biased toward the overseas challengers and the high profile local trainers. When Australian horses travel to Hong Kong, or England to race, they cop whatever is dished up to them come race day. Our trainers certainly have no say or influence over how tracks are prepared. However Racing Victoria panders to overseas horses giving them the best track conditions, the ones they are used to at home, the ones that are in their favour, the ones they were promised.
Look at Werribee Cup day yesterday. It was the biggest joke of a track that we have witnessed since Flemington on Turnbull Stakes day when the fence (due to incessant watering) was a complete no go zone. Werribee yesterday favoured leaders, or on pace on fence horses. No horse made ground out wide, no horses won from further than two off the fence.
So, after the debacle of Flemington a month ago, Werribee yesterday, we now approach the biggest week of racing in Australia, Melbourne Cup week, when 4 meetings are held at headquarters in the space of 8 days. If Flemington plays on Saturday, anywhere like it did on Turnbull Stakes day, punters face massive losses. And if the track is biased on Derby Day, the first day of the carnival, then it will only get worse for the following three days.
Let's hope for every punters sake, the track at Flemington plays fairly to all runners for the next week. Hopefully tracks are not doctored so they become rain affected. This will give all punters the opportunity to find that elusive winner without worrying about how the track might play.
May the best horses win.
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Monday, October 29, 2007
El Segundo: A Moonee Valley Specialist
Hindsight is a great medium, makes know it alls out of anyone who cares to use it. Nevertheless, hindsight can and should be used by all punters who want to be successful at their craft.
Let's take the Cox Plate run on Saturday, won by Colin Little's great middle distance horse, El Segundo. The son of Pins won "Australia's Middle Distance Championship" comfortably after being given a terrific run in transit by Luke Nolen, giving nothing else a chance in the straight. Now, before going any further, we did not bet in the race, so there is no talking from our kick happening here. We selected Haradasun in our emails to clients on Saturday, although urged caution to those wanting to bet on the race as it certainly appeared a tricky affair. The only thing that was going to beat Haradasun on Saturday was the jockey, and prophetically that is exactly what happened. Haradasun was butchered by a jockey who should have had more nouse, especially after riding 4 winners earlier in the day. Hindsight tells us our prediction was correct, the jockey lost the race for Haradasun.
El Segundo had put in an absolute shocker at his previous run in the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington, beaten over 5 lengths that day by Devil Moon and Haradasun. At his start prior to that effort, he never looked like being beaten in the Feehan Stakes at Moonee Valley, narrowly conquering Haradasun that day. We went back through both horses form very closely on Friday night, although believing El Segundo's last run was too bad to be true, and the fact that he can put in a bad one now and then, improving quickly at subsequent starts. However what did not jump out and hit us in the face were the venues of these successes and failures. At his last start last preparation, El Segundo finished 4th in the Australian Cup at Flemington beaten over 6 lengths, remember, the venue for his Turnbull Stakes failure. And go back even further to this time last year, El Segundo went within a whisker of winning the Cox Plate, after putting in a poor run in the Caulfield Stakes. El Segundo has had 3 runs at Flemington, for no wins. He has had 7 starts at Moonee Valley now, for 4 wins a second and a third, his only unplaced run came behind Lad Of The Manor & Makybe Diva in the Feehan Stakes of 2005. His third was first up over an unsuitable 1200m carrying 62.5kg. What does this tell us? El Segundo loves Moonee Valley, always has, whether it be the softer surface or the tight turning course, he thrives there. Obviously, he dislikes Flemington. So there you go, hindsight tells us El Segundo grows an extra leg at Moonee Valley, however should not be backed with countefeit money at Flemington. We should all make note of that for his future preparations.
Anyway, congratulations to Colin Little and Luke Nolen, two nice guys of racing who both deserved their victory in the Cox Plate.
As for PASS members, one winner from two selections on Saturday, with our stable horse El Presidente making up for his previous defeat by winning the last at Ascot on Saturday with ease. He is on a Railway Stakes trail and should be competitive in whatever he runs in this campaign. A Group 2 or 3 race is certainly within his grasp given reasonable barrier draws.
Biggest racing week of the year is approaching, we have our tails up here at present, so we expect plenty more winners to come over the Spring. We have received a few emails from prospective clients, however some have not placed correct contact details on these emails so we have not been able to reply. If you contact us, please include current operative email address or contact phone number so we can repsond speedily.
If you would like details please contact us here profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Let's take the Cox Plate run on Saturday, won by Colin Little's great middle distance horse, El Segundo. The son of Pins won "Australia's Middle Distance Championship" comfortably after being given a terrific run in transit by Luke Nolen, giving nothing else a chance in the straight. Now, before going any further, we did not bet in the race, so there is no talking from our kick happening here. We selected Haradasun in our emails to clients on Saturday, although urged caution to those wanting to bet on the race as it certainly appeared a tricky affair. The only thing that was going to beat Haradasun on Saturday was the jockey, and prophetically that is exactly what happened. Haradasun was butchered by a jockey who should have had more nouse, especially after riding 4 winners earlier in the day. Hindsight tells us our prediction was correct, the jockey lost the race for Haradasun.
El Segundo had put in an absolute shocker at his previous run in the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington, beaten over 5 lengths that day by Devil Moon and Haradasun. At his start prior to that effort, he never looked like being beaten in the Feehan Stakes at Moonee Valley, narrowly conquering Haradasun that day. We went back through both horses form very closely on Friday night, although believing El Segundo's last run was too bad to be true, and the fact that he can put in a bad one now and then, improving quickly at subsequent starts. However what did not jump out and hit us in the face were the venues of these successes and failures. At his last start last preparation, El Segundo finished 4th in the Australian Cup at Flemington beaten over 6 lengths, remember, the venue for his Turnbull Stakes failure. And go back even further to this time last year, El Segundo went within a whisker of winning the Cox Plate, after putting in a poor run in the Caulfield Stakes. El Segundo has had 3 runs at Flemington, for no wins. He has had 7 starts at Moonee Valley now, for 4 wins a second and a third, his only unplaced run came behind Lad Of The Manor & Makybe Diva in the Feehan Stakes of 2005. His third was first up over an unsuitable 1200m carrying 62.5kg. What does this tell us? El Segundo loves Moonee Valley, always has, whether it be the softer surface or the tight turning course, he thrives there. Obviously, he dislikes Flemington. So there you go, hindsight tells us El Segundo grows an extra leg at Moonee Valley, however should not be backed with countefeit money at Flemington. We should all make note of that for his future preparations.
Anyway, congratulations to Colin Little and Luke Nolen, two nice guys of racing who both deserved their victory in the Cox Plate.
As for PASS members, one winner from two selections on Saturday, with our stable horse El Presidente making up for his previous defeat by winning the last at Ascot on Saturday with ease. He is on a Railway Stakes trail and should be competitive in whatever he runs in this campaign. A Group 2 or 3 race is certainly within his grasp given reasonable barrier draws.
Biggest racing week of the year is approaching, we have our tails up here at present, so we expect plenty more winners to come over the Spring. We have received a few emails from prospective clients, however some have not placed correct contact details on these emails so we have not been able to reply. If you contact us, please include current operative email address or contact phone number so we can repsond speedily.
If you would like details please contact us here profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Geelong Cup Day
Spring time is the most exciting time of the year for punters and all those interested in horse racing. Yesterday we saw the running of the Geelong Cup which in some years has provided a good guide to a race held on the first Tuesday in November. There were many Melbourne Cup hopefuls attempting to win at Geelong to gain entry into the big one, however David Hayes and Craig Williams again proved they were too strong when The Fuzz won narrowly but convincingly in the 2400m event. The Anthony Cummings trained Zavite fought strongly in the straight, however found the winner a little too good in the final 100m. Both horses deserve a chance to line up in the Melbourne Cup, however Zavite will have to win the Hotham Handicap to ensure hinself a start.
Whilst on the Melbourne Cup, it never ceases to amaze me how arrogant some of the overseas trainers are regarding their charges who are imported for the Cup. Some only enter quarantine for the minimum amount of time required (2 weeks) with the horses arriving a fortnight prior to the running of the Cup. Do these trainers honestly belive their horses will acclimatise in two weeks? Do they honestly believe their horses will regain the weight lost on the flight to Australia in two weeks? And do they honestly believe they can recover their horses fitness to win a 3200m race in only two weeks? This is why most overseas horses fail miserably in the Melbourne Cup, beacuse they are not given enough time to get used to their new surrounding and recover sufficiently from the ordeal of the flight to Australia. All horses lose weight and condition on a long areoplane flight, and take anywhere up to a month to recover fully, depending on their fitness and resiliance.
The overseas horses who have succeeded in Australia are those given plenty of time to settle down, with most having had a run here before the big one. Both the Japanese horses who quinellad the Cup last year ran in the Caulfield Cup first. Media Puzzle who won the Cup in 2002 won the Geelong Cup prior to running on the first Tuesday in November. The only horses who won the Cup and did not run beforehand was Vintage Crop, however he was brought to Australia by Dermot Weld a month before race day and was given plenty of time to acclimatise.
So, when looking for an overseas horse for 2007 Melbourne Cup, look for one who has been prepared on Australian soil for the longest possible time, not one who arrogantly flew in on Tuesday barely two weeks before the big one.
PASS members have been treated to two specials already this week, both saluting the judge first. North Alert won easily at Mt Isa on Tuesday while Sound Journey won comfortable at Geelong yesterday filling our members pockets with plenty of cash. Sound Journey will win a nice 3yo race over the Flemington carnival, possibly the Carbine Club on Derby Day or even the Sandown Guineas. Another nice winner for PASS members yesterday was Moreton Bay, who will make a Cups horse this time next year.
PASS members have been told of a good thing at Mackay this afternoon. If you would like to become a member please contact us here at profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
Whilst on the Melbourne Cup, it never ceases to amaze me how arrogant some of the overseas trainers are regarding their charges who are imported for the Cup. Some only enter quarantine for the minimum amount of time required (2 weeks) with the horses arriving a fortnight prior to the running of the Cup. Do these trainers honestly belive their horses will acclimatise in two weeks? Do they honestly believe their horses will regain the weight lost on the flight to Australia in two weeks? And do they honestly believe they can recover their horses fitness to win a 3200m race in only two weeks? This is why most overseas horses fail miserably in the Melbourne Cup, beacuse they are not given enough time to get used to their new surrounding and recover sufficiently from the ordeal of the flight to Australia. All horses lose weight and condition on a long areoplane flight, and take anywhere up to a month to recover fully, depending on their fitness and resiliance.
The overseas horses who have succeeded in Australia are those given plenty of time to settle down, with most having had a run here before the big one. Both the Japanese horses who quinellad the Cup last year ran in the Caulfield Cup first. Media Puzzle who won the Cup in 2002 won the Geelong Cup prior to running on the first Tuesday in November. The only horses who won the Cup and did not run beforehand was Vintage Crop, however he was brought to Australia by Dermot Weld a month before race day and was given plenty of time to acclimatise.
So, when looking for an overseas horse for 2007 Melbourne Cup, look for one who has been prepared on Australian soil for the longest possible time, not one who arrogantly flew in on Tuesday barely two weeks before the big one.
PASS members have been treated to two specials already this week, both saluting the judge first. North Alert won easily at Mt Isa on Tuesday while Sound Journey won comfortable at Geelong yesterday filling our members pockets with plenty of cash. Sound Journey will win a nice 3yo race over the Flemington carnival, possibly the Carbine Club on Derby Day or even the Sandown Guineas. Another nice winner for PASS members yesterday was Moreton Bay, who will make a Cups horse this time next year.
PASS members have been told of a good thing at Mackay this afternoon. If you would like to become a member please contact us here at profselections@austarnet.com.au
Good luck and profitable punting to all.
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