Wednesday, August 29, 2007

EQUINE INFLUENZA

The current situation in Australia in regards to EI is the most catastrophic occurrence ever to inflict our shores. The impact on the thoroughbred racing industry is an absolute disaster, despite the fact no equine thoroughbreds have been infected by the virus. Costs arising from will be far reaching and cover years, not just days, weeks and months.

Firstly let me say, that the Government must conduct a full enquiry as to how the virus arrived in Australia, and how it was spread. And they must then put into place procedures to ensure this never happens again.

Forgetting betting turnover, think about how many people and their incomes this is affecting. There has been no horse racing since last Friday, with NSW & Queensland racing suspended indefinately, no track work until this morning, no movement of any horses anywhere in Australia since Saturday. So let's list a few of the people affected whose incomes have been diminished.

Racehorse trainers & jockeys
Trackwork riders, stablehands & strappers
Equine Transport Companies
Farriers, Dentists and Veterinarians
Breeding Studs Farms, Horse Breakers & Agistment Properties
TAB Agencies
Bookmakers
Profesional Punters
Catering Companies that operate on race courses
Casual Staff that work at race courses on race days
Bloodstock Agents

All these people and their employees are badly affected, but there are further ramifications along the line. Owners are paying ut money for their horses to be in stables even though very few can be worked or raced. Due to the lack of racing advertising revenue for race clubs and sponsorship will not be received. Any advertising clubs to in the media has stopped causing reduced incomes for newspapers, television and radio, especially hard hit in regional areas. Flow on affects from all these issues result in reduced expenditure by race clubs on things such as extensions, track upgrades etc.

In fact, leaving TAB turnover alone for the moment, I doubt if the real cost or affect will ever be known as the flow on from reduction of income this week and in the upcoming weeks could never be accurately measured.

Personally, our income has all but ceased. We currently have 3 horses "Sold", however as they cannot be moved (all are in NSW or Qld) the sales will not go ahead at this stage. And very few if any person wants to purchase a horse unless they are fully guaranteed the horse does not have EI. So no bloodstock sales are happening at present.

Massie Lodge is locked down at present, a personal decision made by Helen and myself merely as a precaution. We have several clients wanting to send horses here for a spell, however with no transport allowed to move horses, we are unable to receive the clients horses. We have plenty of room here to accept new residents, however we cannot accept any.

And finally punting as we know it has ceased indefinately. Not only is there no thoroughbreds races to bet on, when racing finally does recommence, extreme caution will be required before any consideration is given to outlaying money on thoroughbreds. So many horses have missed vital work, not raced for longer periods than normal we will not risk betting on horses we are not confident are fit enough to win.

And finally we must give Go Maz a mention. The poor bloke is jumping out of his skin and ready to race. His career has been agonizingly halted for yet another reason. One would think cheating death on 3 occasions, dodging the dogger, then when he is finally ready to go, he firstly encounters an abandoned meeting due to rain, now and EI epidemic never heard of before in Australia. What will happen to the poor little fella next? He will be nominated for a 1200m maiden at grafton on 5 Septmeber, so let's hope racing in NSW resumes in time for him to take his palce in the field.

We urge everyone to adhere to all rules and regualtions instigated by State Governments and the DPI. Please do not move any horse of any breed anywhere until clearance is given by the DPI. Take extreme precautions to protect yourself and your horses if you handle equines on a regular basis. Do not allow this virus to spread any further.

This is the biggest catastrophe to ever occur in our industry, please take every possible measure to contain it now.

Friday, August 24, 2007

Maz Update

Unfortunately, Lismore races were abandoned on Monday, so we have to sit and wait patiently for another chance for Maz to get to the races. This opportunity should arive on Tuesday at Grafton, as long as the rain eases off in the area. Maz has been accepted for a 1200m Maiden at Grafton, so we will head down there to cheer him home. He has drawn poorly in barrier 15, however the run will be over of great benefit and experience for him.

Go Maz !!!

Monday, August 20, 2007

GO MAZ

Go Maz is due to have his first race start today at Lismore. Go Maz !!






GO MAZ – The Community’s Racehorse

Although yet to race the story surrounding Go Maz is already quite remarkable. He cheated death at least 3 times, dodged the knackery at the last minute and now due to the community support of an internet forum finds himself heading to the race track.

Go Maz is the son of a most uncommercial Gatsby x Belle Hareb mating, originally owned and managed by a passionate internet forum member, let's call him, “Fasteddy”. “Maz” as he has affectionately been known to his internet family and friends for the last 6 years (since inception) lost his mum just weeks following his birth. He struggled through the next 6 months on life’s edge, with life turning for the up when moved to boutique property Massie Lodge near Warwick in South East Qld. Dedication, love and care from Fasteddy and the property owners Helen and Evan Robinson saw Maz slowly put on weight and grow, and at 18 months he had matured into a healthy young colt about to embark on a potential racing career. Maz moved on to the breakers and a property north of Brisbane in preparation for racetrack dreams.

However tragedy again struck when on a stormy summers night with thunder and lightening threatening he took fright and unwittingly charged into a paddock boundary fence. His injuries were so severe he was forced to spend 4 weeks in an equine veterinary hospital to assist with his recovery, tended constantly by “Fasteddy’s” devotion. Maz then suffered an almost fatal dose of the scours, with serious consideration at one stage given to him being put down, however Fasteddy would have none of this. With Fasteddy's care and his own will and determination, amazingly the brown colt survived, finally returning to his paddock.

By this stage the heavy burden of vet, equine hospital and mounting agistment costs were taking their toll on Fasteddy who reluctantly was forced by debtors to list Maz in a monthly tried horse sale on the Gold Coast. After flirting with death on no less than three previous occasion once again Maz’s future looked very bleak, little alone any prospect of the racetrack.
Word spread as Eddy sadly advised his internet forum friends of the latest developments. “Maz” had long been a favourite friend and mascot to The New Horse Racing Community Forum (http://groups.msn.com/TheNewHorseRacingCommunityForum) as they had followed his path from mating onwards. Some had supported his syndicate from day one, while others had maintained regular interest and encouragement through his years of development. Helen and Evan Robinson, members of the forum and fond past carers of Maz decided to step in and purchase Maz at the sale, if for nothing else than to save him and allow him a happy life once again in a quite paddock at Massie Lodge. Community interest and support quickly grew amongst the internet forum members who now wanted to support the 4yr old and any possible chance of he at last venturing to the race track. And so the Maz Syndicate was formed, with many members far and wide (all parts of Australia, Japan and Asia) now banding together behind the community mascot generously donating funds to support an initial racing campaign.
At last “Maz” looked likely of kicking up his heels on a racetrack. Win, lose or draw it didn’t matter, all that everyone wanted now was for Maz to be given the opportunity to make it to the races. He was sent to trainer Phil Quinnell at Ballina on the NSW Nth Coast to assess and commence work. In lieu of his public support and following Maz he and his syndicate was formally registered and the brown gelding named – “Go Maz”.

And now his first race day draws near. To the surprise of trainer and supporters (but not to “Fasteddy”) Go Maz stepped out to win his maiden trail recently at Lismore. After all the years of hardship Go Maz “the community horse” is now set to achieve his goal to race against his peers for the very first time. Results now are not important, the fact that Maz has achieved so much and brought together so many against all odds in the “sport of kings” is the real story.
GO MAZ!!!!



The New Horse Racing Community Forum

http://groups.msn.com/TheNewHorseRacingCommunityForum

The New Horse Racing Community Forum is a MSN forum that grew from the original Racenet forum. TNHRCF is independent, driven by its members expression, discussion and content which is why today it is one of the most active MSN forums with over 400 hits each day and hundres of members contributing each month. Punters, trainers, owners, jockeys, breeders, journalists are all active participants, even the stewards admit to having a look.
Of note, TNHRCF has driven the public voice behind many key industry issues across the last 6 years, including leading the Betfair debate, uncovered the "Dubaigate" Tab post race betting scandal and contributed to the naming of many macots for members including the classy mare "Forum Floozie".

Monday, August 6, 2007

A Trap For Young Players

What a magnificent start to the new punting season for all our followers here at PASS.

Our first three selections of the season have all saluted, Queen And Country ($7.00) Father Dex ($1.90) and Kid's Show ($3.70) healthily lining all our pockets with plenty of cash. On Saturday, our members were also privileged with mail that Apache Cat was absolutely flying giving him a great chance to upset boom horse Haradasun in the Bletchingly Stakes. The cat won comfortably assisting one member to snag the Melbourne quaddie. Lots more winners coming , especially with the tracks becoming drier along with the better horses reurning for the Spring.

Now, there is a significant anomoly in form that occurs this time every year that most punters either do not know about or choose to ignore it. Most horses when they race as 2yos, restrict their racing to their own age group with most clubs scheduling at least one 2yo race per week. However, as from August 1, these horses are now 3yo, meaning fewer opportunities for races restricted to their own age group. What we find happening at this time of the year is simple. A 2yo wins a race restricted to his own age in late July, however after 1 August he is now considered a 3yo therefore having race against older, more mature and seasoned opponents. Most of these recently turned 3yos, are not really 3yo at all, those being born in October, November or Decenber, are not really 3yo until their original foaling dates arrives on the calendar.

These newly turned 3yos are at a huge disadvantage against 4, 5 and 6yos maturity and size wise thus will always have difficulty beating them in a race. There are always a few exceptions to every rule, and if Sunline reincarnated is running around as a newly turned 3yo filly, then she would defeat anything she runs against. However, there are not too many reincarnated Sunlines or Lonhro's around at this time.

So please be very careful when assessing form. recently turned 3yos are at a distinct disadvantage when racing against open age, more seasoned gallopers. If a horse won a 2yo restricted race late in July, then turns up against open aged horses at their next assignment, odds are they will come up very short in the market, meaning they are way under the odds.

There has been two clear examples of this happening in the past 5 days. A 3yo filly named Le Jeune Fille started a $2.50 favourite in an open fillies and mares Class 1 at Hawkesbury on Thursday. She was beaten into second place by our winning PASS selection, Queen And Country. Then, at Gunnedah on Friday in the last race, a restricted 2yo winner from July, was again sent out a short priced favourite when racing against the older horses for the first time, missing a place.

These form lines will continue for at least three months, possibly until the new year, so please be particularly adroit to avoid these runners. In fact, they are generally good risks as very few will beat the older horses.

If you would like to join the winning team here at PASS, then please send us an email profeselections@austarnet.com.au so we can inform you how to obtain our services.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

Thursday, August 2, 2007

Results For The Racing Season

July 31 brought about the end to yet another racing season along with the commecement of the new racing year.

We have had a most successful racing season showing profits of almost 20% on turnover across the board using a level stake. In total we have provided 73 winners from 162 selections at an average winning price of just over $2.65. After a full racing season, it is hard to imagine any other service providing consistent winners as we do every week here at PASS.

There have been several highlights, however our recent successes are one that should be noted. From our last 24 selections we have served up no less than 14 winners at an average winning price of over $2.62, so all our members finished off the racing year with full wallets.

Our most consistent winner this year was probably the Western Australian Beat The Storm, who we followed with great success culminating in a Group 3 victory at Belmont paying the juicy odds of $4.60 top tote. He won 4 times for us with the next closest being Not A Copy the handy Victorian provincial horse who saluted on three separate occasions earlier in the year. Our highest winning dividend went to Incentate who won the Hanging Rock Cup on Australia Day paying over $7 across the country.

So a most successful year was had by all members, and we can sincerely promise we will do far better in 2007-2008.

If you would like to become a part of all the winners, please contact us here at profselections@austarnet.com.au so we cna assist you in profiting from the punt.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

Sunday, July 8, 2007

It is nice when we get it right. Puts you in a great frame of mind and gives you confidence to continue on the way you are going. Of our last 18 selections we have come up with 13 winners at an average wining price of $2.62 giving all our members plenty of warm winter cheer on these cool days.

Our selections for this season now number 154 with 71 winners all up. At an average winning price of just over $2.65 this gives a profit at level stakes of 22.29%. Not too many other services can boast a winning record of this magnitude oversuch a lengthy period of time.

Our main selection yesterday was a horse named Scenic Rule who ran in the last race at the Gold Coast. He looked the winner of the race after winning over the same course and distance at his previous run and only went up one class and 0.5kg on that 4.5 length win. Most of his rivals yesterday were first up from a spell, the main danger we thought being Borsha's Warrior who we predicted would lead and be carved up by a few from outside gates. Now although this din't go perfectly to plan, Scenic Rule did get a beautiful run in behind the speed, was steered clear at the top of the straight and proved a little too strong at the finish. A horse named Costa Smerelda was sensationally backed from $8 into $4.60 on track. However Scenic Rule had had two runs back from a spell was fit and in form, whereas Costa Smerelda was having his first run after a break and was not fit enough and this showed in the final 50 metres of the race. Costa Smerelda got a stitch in that final 50 metres and Scenic Rule finished strongly being the fitter of the two to win narrowly.

This is an important factor when assessing a race. A fit strong in form horse will usually beat a horse who has more ability however is racing for the first time in a preparation. It doesn't matter how many weeks work, or how many barrier trials a horse has had to fit himself for a first up assignment, race fitness will always come out on top unless the horse in question has literally lengths on the opposition. So always be happy to risk horses first up from a spell if you like a fit and in form horse. Of course there are exceptions to this rule as for every rule. Sunline will always beat a group of WFA horses first up, because she was just better than them, as would Lonhro. However, there not many horses running around with the ability of a Lonhro or a Sunline.

There is one ritual we always perform prior to coming up with a final selection. We do our form study every afternoon or evening for the following days racing. This can take anywhere from an hour up to four hours depending on how many meetings we look at. However there is one special facet of form study that is an invaluable tool and certainly stops us from backing a lot of losers. And that is a meticulous review every morning after scratchings and track conditions. It is easy to make mistakes when you first look at a race and many things can be overlooked. So it is imperative we review every race again the next morning to proove our assessments are correct. And this review is conducted slowly and carefuly so every facet of each race is thoroughly covered.

A classic example of this occurred yesterday when on Friday night we wrote down the name of a horse in Race 7 at the Gold Coast. However on closer review yesterday morning it was revealed that this horse not only jumped 400m in distance, it also jumped 2.5kg in weight from its previous start. Not only that this horse was starting from the second outside barrier so it was an obvious no bet for us. In fact, after another review of the race we found that another horse in the race had the credentials to win. Now we are not sure how we came up with the original selection, there is a possibility we simply wrote down the name of the wrong horse, nevertheless, a concentrated review on race day morning corrected the mistake of the previous evening and not only stopped us from backing a loser, but found us a nice winner at $4.90.

Everyone makes mistakes, that is well known and mistakes are very easy to make, we are only human. However to correct these mistakes before you outlay your hard earned money is the important lesson here. Don't take things for granted, review every day and correct your mistakes and you will find more winners and less losers.

And when you are backing more winners and less losers you feel on top of the world, invincible. You are in a great mood and this shows to the people around you because you are happy. And the people around you are ahppy and enjoy your company far more.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.


Sunday, June 17, 2007

Beat The Storm

PASS members have certainly found a way to beat the winter storms in recent weeks in Perth. And it would be most inappropriate if we didn't give this bloke some recognition after the picket fence he has now notched up next to his name.

PASS members have been on this 4yo gelding at his past three starts at Belmont in WA and he certainly hasn't let us down.

Last Saturday Beat The Storm put up an astonishing performance to win over the 1400m at Belmont. Given a beautiful run on the fence by Willie Pike, Beat The Storm came to the home turn full of running just needed a clear opening to give what he had left, which was plenty. However, as the field straightened for the run home, Beat The Storm was hopelessly pocketed and Pike was deparately looking for an gap to push him through. The gelding was climbing all over the heels of the horses in front of him and the inevitable happened. He clipped the heels of one in front of him, went down on his nose, and all but fell to the turf and dislodged Pike. Somehow, miraculaously, Pike kept his feet in the irons, steadied Beat The Storm, saw a gap appear on the inside and surled the gelding through the gap. Not only was Beat The Storm able to regain his footing, but he dashed through the narrow opening and ran away to win the race by 1.8 lengths. Am amazing effort just to stay on his feet, let alone finish in the placings, let alone win so easily. Only a horse with exceptional ability could do what Beat The Storm did last Saturday. It was obvious more wins were in store for him.

Yesterday, Beat The Storm lined up in a Group 3 race for the first time, the time honoured Belmont Sprint. He had some very good opposition including several Group and Listed winners and he needed to be good to even be competitive. However after his outstanding win the week before, PASS members were again told Beat The Storm was a good thing. For some reason unknown to us, Willie Pike jumped off Beat The Storm to ride Is Amazing, a 1200m sprinter at best in our opinion, albeit a previous Group winner. Is Amazing led as predicted, however Beat The Storm, given a lovely ride by Patrick Carberry, ran home strongly in the straight to prove far too good and win narrowly but convincingly. He started at $4.80, and both Centre Racing and Sportingbet paid those odds on their top tote dividend. Super TAB paid best tote in Australia at $4.60, great didvidends considering the horse had won it's last three starts, and four of his previous five starts. He has now won four straight, all over 1400m at Belmont and is the most improved horse in WA.

PASS members have now been given eight winners from the last ten selections provided, and all have big smiles on their faces and very large bank balances.

A definite horse to follow after yesterday's racing is Pure Harmony who ran third in the last race at Morphettville. Every winner at Morphettville had come down the middle of the track and the fence had been off all day. However Amy Hermann in her wisdom, who had a bolting Pure Harmony underneath her at the home turn, decided for reasons unknown to us to angle the mare to the fence to make her run. Preditably, horses down the middle over ran Pure Harmony in the straight, however she finished a creditable third. Given an even racing surface and a good barrier draw, Pure Harmony will go very close to winning at her next start.

If you would like to become part of the all the winners here at PASS, then please contact us profselections@austarnet.com.au and we can organise for you to receive emails every day we provide information.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.