Professional Analytical Selections Service

Golden Slipper Day

2009-04-04T11:54:00.000+10:00

Good morning to punters everywhere

A magnificent program set down for Rosehill Gardens this afternoon, unfortunately marred by plenty of rain throughout the week causing the track surface to be officially heavy. There are several really exciting races, the clash of Hot Danish & Forensics in the Queen Of The Turf, the return of Racing To Win, a quality line up in the George Ryder Stakes, aling with the best BMW field the STC could have hoped for. An afternoon for all racing fans to sit back and enjoy the spectacle.

Track conditions will be all important, jockeys will have to find the best going, and the track will no doubt deteriorate as the day progresses. Punters should watch proceedings closely, work out where the best going is, where the winners are coming from, and ascertain which barrier positions are advataged before having a bet.

The Golden Slipper is usually a lottery, this year is no exception, accentuated by the heavy track. Generally barrier draws decide the result, however with the rain affected track, this may not be the case this year if the horses are scouting wider looking for firming footing. Normally, we would immediately discount favourites Real Saga & More Joyous because of their poor barriers, horses simply don't win from double figure barriers from the awful 1200m start point at Rosehill. However if the ground is better off the fence, then both have the undeniable winning chances. Fillies again should dominate with the 2kg advantage over the colts & geldings, which, although reduced by 0.5kg these days is still not enough to make an even playing field. If the Rostova that won the Sires Produce at Flemington a month ago shows up at Rosehill today, then she can win this race. She has been the class filly all season, only blemishing her copy book in the Blue Diamond. At the odds, she is great each way value. There is a good roughie in the race we must mention, although drawn perfectly, the barrier may hinder Indian Ocean's chances. Her effort to win last week was amazing to say the least, after sitting 4 & 5 wide throughout, she had the audacity to fight hard down the straight and win. Horses just don't sit wide in the 1200m races and win at Rosehill, her performance was outstanding, a repeat will see her right in the finish this afternoon @ $25 plus. Tough race as always, best of luck if you are having a punt on the Slipper, we'll watch with interest. For the record, we'll go for value and tip a fillies trifecta with Indian Ocean to beat Rostova, More Joyous & Real Saga.

It is very difficult for us to encourage anyone to have a bet at Rosehill today unless there is a major upgrade in track conditions. However, Faulconbridge appears in the first event with fresh use of the track whch should be an assistance. He has won on slow going, is now looking for the 2000m and does have a class edge on his rivals. If you are going to have a bet today at Rosehill, he's probably the one to make some money on.

Some excellent Group racing at both Morphettville & Ascot to support Rosehill today, along with a strong program at Caulfield. Plenty of rain yesterday around Melbourne however most seems to have missed The Heath with only a dead track rating there. In race 7, the Danny O'Brien trained Villain has an excellent each way chance. He has had one run back from a spell which saw him have little luck in running to finish only 3 lengths from the smart Pinnacles. Villain's career has been marred by injury and bad luck, so with better fortune on his side this preparation there are a few wins in him. He has finished close up behind some smart horses throughout his career and deserves a change of luck. Today might be his day against an ordinary lot with Stephen Baster to steer.

At Ascot we see the the Mighty Marasco racing to find another win to add to his imposing record. He has only 6 opponents over the 1800m to contend with and he should be too strong for them.

The best bet of the day appears in race 4 @ Ascot in the very smart Dante's Volonte. However he is going to be odds on, so we can't make him the special. He has a pretty smart field to overcome today with Megatic, Hadebeclorka & the consistent 6yo mare Calico Blue in the event. However he showed first up from a let up he doesn't have to lead, that he can sit off the pace and still win easily. He onlt has to produce another of his trade mark sub 1:10 runs at Ascot and his opponents won't get near him. Dante's Volonte is the best bet around the country this afternoon.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

2008 VRC Oaks

2008-11-05T20:21:00.001+10:00

VRC Oaks Preview

The third day of the Flemington Spring carnival welcomes all those from the fairer sex with open arms. On the 9 race program no less than 4 are dedicated to fillies and/or mares, there will be fashions on the field, women strutting their stuff across Flemington with gay abandon. Yes, it truly is ladies day.

The Oaks itself brings together 17 3yo fillies, well almost all are actually 3 years old, some won't physically turn 3 for another week or two. They race against each other over 2500m, the distance over which the VRC Derby was run on Saturday, and all are running over that distance for the first time in their lives. Not one has been over a journey any further than 2000m in their short careers, thus they are all jumping at least 500m in their endeavours to the coveted Group 1. Of the 17 acceptors, 5 have never even won one race before, they are maidens, trying to win a Group 1 event. On top of that, there are another 6 fillies who have only won one lifetime race. This is not exceptional, it happens every year, with fillies attempting to win that pinnacle black type so important to breeders, despite the fact they are too young, too inexperienced, and some simply not good enough to ever win at the elite level. Media moguls then become extremely excited every time a former Oaks winner steps out on to the race track, believing their achievements as a 3yo filly takes them to status far above mortal equines. This, it rarely if ever does.

In the 2008 version of the Oaks, we again see an odds on favourite in the shape of the Kris Lees trained Samantha Miss. Now Samantha is no ordinary 3yo filly. She has had 10 starts before her Oaks assignment, winning 6 including two Group 1 events, one against the boys in the Champagne Stakes at Randwick back in April. She has also run 3 placings, including a tremendous effort last start in the Group 1 WFA W S Cox Plate over 2040m at Moonee Valley, beaten only 1.2 lengths by Maldivian. So our girl Samantha is entitled to be around the $1.80 mark for the Oaks, as none of her rivals can boast more than two race victories, let alone two at the highest level. And which of her rivals could we even consider in our wildest dreams could possibly secure a position in the field, let alone run a place as a 3yo filly in a Cox Plate? None, exactly. Samantha Miss deserves favouritism.

Nevertheless, there is always the uncertainty of racing. She is well drawn in barrier 3, regular jockey Hugh Bowman will ride, a welcome return after he could not make the weight in the Cox Plate. He will give her the run of the race in behind the speed, bring her clear in the straight to allow her to let down her devastating final finish. But will she run out the 2500m? She has now had 5 runs in from a spell, including that gut buster at Moonee Valley when everyone thought on the home turn she was just going to unleash and blouse them all. She petered on her run that day, almost losing third place to Zarita. Has she had enough? We will only be able to answer these questions at around 3:05pm Melbourne time. If she runs the 2500m, she still has her zest for racing, and class prevails, she will win, like many other top class 3yo fillies before her. Nevertheless, we won't be taking any tomato sauce odds on offer to find out if the moon and young Samantha are in sync when the Oaks field jumps away.

There should be plenty of pace in the race, Estee has led at her latest two runs, most recently on Saturday in the Wakeful, the traditional lead up to the Oaks, and on both occasions she has fought on tenaciously, with all due respect to the leader biased tracks on which she was running. Roobles & Lunar Lights will also go forward, and with so many racing over the 2500m for the first time, there are sure to be another one or two who pull hard and have to to allowed to run toward the lead. So there will be plenty of pace on, which should suit Samantha Miss. However, this will also suit a few others who will obtain nice runs in the race as well. Miss Scarlatti has unfortunately drawn very badly, and will have to go back from the alley, if she goes forward, that would be tantamount to suicide, however a fast pace will suit and she will be running on at the finish. If she can keep in touch as the field approaches the turn, then will figure in the finish.

Okay, hands up all who saw the run of Kimillsy on Saturday in the Wakeful? You are all very clever cherubs, aren't you. Yes, it was a run to take note of, to write down in that little black book you hide from all others, or even simply make a mental note of and keep repeating to yourself, "back her next time, back her next time." Kimillsy had been a little one paced at her previous two runs, behind Samantha Miss & Gallica, however she rocketed to the line in the Wakeful, and if she repeats that run in the Oaks, she will nearly win.

The Oaks is a race lacking plenty of depth, and whichever filly gets the best run in transit, and then is able to run a strong 2500m, that is the filly who will win. Which filly that will be, we won't know until after the race. There are only a handful of winning chances, however we cannot encourage any one to take odds on about any horse at their first attempt at 2500m. If you insist on betting, take exotics around Samantha Miss, Kimillsy, Estee & Miss Scarlatti. If you insist on having a win bet, then the odds offered about Kimillsy are far more attractive than those being offered for Samantha Miss.

Remember the winning odds for all the Group 1 races so far at Flemington this Spring. Then understand, there are a couple of far better bets on the program, than guessing whether an inexperienced 3yo filly can run out a strong 2500m at their first attempt.

Good luck and profitable punting to all

Spring 2008 - The Year Of The Long Shots

2008-11-05T10:16:00.000+10:00

No matter what happens on Oaks day tomorrow at Flemington, or the final day of the 2008 spring carnival on Saturday, this year will have to be remembered as the year punters were sent packing without even the shirt on their backs. The win of Viewed yesterday in the Melbourne Cup at odds of over $40 on all Australian totes, has capped off a spring carnival that will have most punters shaking their heads as to how they are supposed to find these winners. It has been a spring for despised outsiders, winning almost every Group 1 race on offer, with the exception of the Caulfield Guineas some 3 weeks ago.

Let's have a look at the winners of the major races thus far:-

Caulfield Cup - All The Good $41 SP
W S Cox Plate - Maldivian $12 SP
VRC Derby - Rebel Raider $101 SP
Melbourne Cup - Viewed $41 SP

Now, I suppose Maldivian was not what you would call a monstrous outsider winning the Cox Plate. Nevertheless, he was not in the first 5 favourites on the day and started $12 in a field of 12, after a dismal performance in the Caulfield Cup the week prior. What he did Cox Plate day was a form reversal of decent proportions, it must be said.

All The Good was a last start winner at Newmarket by over 3 lengths, so maybe he simply got under Australian punters guard. However Rebel Raider ran a meek 3rd in the Geelong Classic, a race rarely proving a strong form line for the Derby. In fact Rebel Raider was beaten over 3 lengths at Geelong, and was correctly sent out at 100/1 in the Derby. Viewed had had 4 runs back following his Brisbane Cup win on a bog track back in June, beaten soundly at every one of those runs this spring. Certainly, Viewed, Rebel Raider & Maldivian all put in form reversals that fooled most punters on the day. So, punters rightly or as it turned out wrongly, ignored all four of these Group 1 winners. If we go back to the time honoured Turnbull Stakes a month ago, where Weekend Hussler was sent out a long odds on favourite, he duely missed a place, the rot for punters starting way back in early October.

The Caulfield Guineas has turned out to be one of the only major races where form lines stood up and punters got it right, when the Mark Kavanagh trained Whobegotyou was victorious at $1.60, not the most succulent of odds for which punters search. Nevertheless, a winner is a winner this spring and Whobegotyou is almost the only horse to put some money back into punters pockets. Northern Meteor, admittedly started very short priced favourite in the Group 1 Coolmore on Saturday, however it must be said this is not one of the big 6 or 7 races of the spring.

So, why have the majority of the favourites been failing? Why are these long priced horses consistently winning throughout the spring of 2008?

There are several reasons for this. Firstly, most of these beaten favourites have been well under the odds, and most have actually been false favourites. The strength & depth of Australian horses, especially at the top level has evened out so much over the past few years, it doesn't take much to go wrong for the favourite's chances to go awry in a race. Favourites require everything to go their way, as do every other horse in the race for that matter to win the race. Being used up early, sitting a little wide without any cover, taking off too early, horses placed in unsuitable races over unsuitable distances all of these issues will accumulate to get a favourite or any other horse beaten. Horses who win these top class races, generally have everything go their way, receiving a nice easy run with cover, getting clear at the right time, not being used up early, and of course being placed by the trainer in the right race over the right distance. Media hype plays a massive part in making horses false favourites, as we saw with Weekend Hussler & Whobegotyou. Weekend Hussler was a sprinter miler attempting to win staying races in a year that most thought the WFA ranks were down in class. He simply didn't stay. Whobegotyou was jumping 500m in distance in attempting to win the Derby, a fact clearly forgotten by punters carried away with the media hype surrounding the horses chances. At least the winner Rebel Raider only jumped 300m from the Geelong run to the Derby. As for the Melbourne Cup, I don't know how many times I watched a replay of Septimus winning in Ireland at his most recent start before the Cup, winning by a massive 13 lengths. Alas, what every pundit forgot to mention to punters was this victory was on a bog track, and Septimus would be racing on a hard surface come Cup day. And how many times did we see a replay of Mad Rush's excellent 4th in the Caulfield Cup, pundits drooling over it as a great guide to his chances in the Melbourne Cup. What pundits did not tell punters, was that Mad Rush had never won a race beyond 2400m, his best distance, the distance of the Caulfield Cup not the Melbourne Cup, and was a massive query over the 3200m yesterday. The media has plenty to answer for in assisting to make these horses short priced false favourites. If the media is going to push horses, then they should give out all the facts, not just the one's that suit them to make a story.

The other major issue is track bias, which is an alley that Racing Victoria forbid most journalists covering the carnival to walk down. Caulfield over its 3 day carnival in October was a disgrace, with few or no horses making up ground in any race. The committee moved the rain around on all 3 days in an attempt to lure punters into the belief the track was playing fairly, and with the assistance of the media, most punters were duped. Fact is, other than a handful of events, front runners on the fence were advantaged, alas, nothing changed when we arrived at Flemington last Saturday. The only races where horses seem to be able to make ground at Flemington this year is in long distance races. The 1400m & 1600m races around the circuit, horses simply have to be in the first 2 or 3 to have any winning hope, and the straight races are the same.

Another issue is that punters are all becoming sheep. They follow media hype, they look for the obvious form lines because they are what most of the racing media tend to focus on. In yesterday's Melbourne up for example, plenty of media wanted to spruik Bart Cummings chances of winning a 12th Cup. However they focussed on Saturday's Saab winner Moatize, not the Brisbane Cup winner Viewed. Thus, Viewed went out at $41 (gross overs), Moatize $12 (gross unders), and we all know the result. Punters listen to the radio, to the racing stations on television, and follow what is fed to them. They look at form guides in the same way every time they pick one up, not just one punter, but the majority of punters. Therefore, some horses who should be $2.50 in the market come up as $1.50 chances, way under the odds. There was a glaring example of this in the last at Flemington yesterday with favourite Daintree Duke. His true price was around the $2.75 mark, however he had been odds on with bookmakers since acceptances came out on Saturday evening. Why? Because of the massive media hype surrounding him. In the end, he was beaten, albeit unluckily, by Danzylum who sat close to the pace all the way and held on strongly to the finish.

So what will happen in the Oaks tomorrow? How many punters will keenly jump on odds on favourite Samantha Miss after her great 3rd in the W S Cox Plate for tomorrow 3yo fillies classic? Going by what has transpired thus far this spring, plenty will, and once again they will get burnt. Samantha Miss is the class horse of the race, however, like Whobegotyou on Saturday, is jumping 500m from the Plate to the Oaks, and we know what happened to Whobegotyou at his short quote. She is long odds on, and terrible value for any punter to consider backing. Punters have to get smarter, either look for value, or simply don't have a bet. What, I hear you cry! Don't have a bet! Yes, show some discipline, either look for one over the odds, or wait for another race. Don't listen to media hype, especially when 3 or 4 different outlets spruik the same horse, it will be under the odds. Leave it alone, wait for it to fail under the pressure of such support, then jump on at subsequent starts when the odds are right.

The final group 1 of the carnival is run on Saturday over the 1600m at Flemington, however we won't see an odds on pop in that race. So punters should get good value for their money in the race. Nevertheless, the media will hype up one or two who are sure to be well in the market come jump time, as well as being way under their true odds. So punters beware.

The media is a most important factor in the racing industry. It simply would not survive the way it is without the media. However, all facets of the media must take their jobs far more seriously than they do now. All they look for is a story, and when several all jump on the one horse it comes up way under the odds, and generally gets beaten. The media always try to make a hero, a so called champion. Unfortunately they did this with Weekend Hussler & Whobegotyou, as there were no other horses consistently winning this spring. We should all allow the horses to make their own stories, allow the horses on track performances to influence our judgement, maybe then, punters will get back on the right track.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

2008 Melbourne Cup

2008-11-03T13:30:00.003+10:00

Melbourne Cup day is upon us. Let's hope everyone has an enjoyable and successful day tomorrow. Our thoughts as follows:-

1. Septimus - Comes to Australia with a big reputation and a couple of massive winning margins next to his name, albeit on rain affected surfaces. He is without doubt the class horse of the field, however does have the impost of 58.5kg to carry because of that. The major issue with him other than a dry track is whether he has travelled well, settled in & acclimatised well and eaten up since his arrival. If he has, and there is some rain in Melbourne he will be very hard to beat. Johnny Murtagh is a concern as he has no experience under Australian conditions, there will be plenty of pace on in the Cup and he won't be able to afford the luxury of a wide trip with Septimus. Too many ofs and buts with him, however given his favoured wet track conditions, he would nearly win.

2. Master O'Reilly - Our old favourite who fronts up again this year after what must be said a dismal failure last year. He appeared not to run the trip last year, however his preparation this time has been completely different and his runs at WFA have been very good, especially in the Turnbull here at Flemington. His run in the Caulfield Cup was outstanding, however it must be remembered the 2400m at Caulfield is his pet track & distance winning twice and finishing second twice there in a 5 start career. Last start he got caught at the rear in the Cox Plate off a very slow speed, so the run can be overlooked. In saying that, Princess Coup finished back with him that day and she showed nothing in the MacKinnon on Saturday. He will get a great run from the barrier, so given he will do no work in the run, Vlad Duric should have the opportunity to bring him down the outside with one last crack at the leaders in the straight. On his best, a good each way chance, if he runs like last year, no chance at all.

3. Honolulu - From the same stable as the top weight Septimus & does have acceptable credentials on firm going. However, when he has struck a good track, his form does fall away which is an important factor. The two biggest issues for him will be the barrier (24) combined with the inexperienced jockey Colm O'Donohue who has never ridden here in Australia. The pace of Australian races are completely different to European races, and if O'Donohue does get caught wide in the run, then his race is all but over. We have wondered if trainer Aiden O'Brien actually considers him a winning chance, or if he has brought him over as a pacemaker for Septimus, regrettably, we won't know this until the field has gone 250m. On his best form, he has a chance, however again, not knowing if he has travelled well and settled in is a major concern. Each way hope only, maybe include in exotics, however the stablemate does look a far better proposition.

4. Cest La Guerre - New Zealand Derby winner earlier this year, who was purchased by an Australian syndicate including Lloyd Williams, Simon O'Donnell & John Singleton. At least trainer John Sadler won't have any troubles being paid his monthly bill with names like those in the ownership. Cest La Guerre's best form is on rain affected tracks, he won the Derby on a heavy surface, he simply hasn't recaptured that sort of form since his arrival in Australia. If the track becomes rain affected, then he is in the race up to his ears of he can run the 3200m out strongly. However, on a dry surface, he is an each way hope at best.

5. Nom Du Jeu - AJC Derby runner up back in April, who has really improved since his arrival in Australia this time. His run in the Caulfield Cup from the outside barrier was nothing short of sensational, arguably the best run on the day, and the Caulfield Cup has always been considered the best guide to a runners chances in the Melbourne Cup. If he reproduces that run, he is in this race right up to his ears. His sire Montjeu only throws stayers and his mum, Prized Gem, won a Brisbane Cup for trainer Murray Baker a few years back, so the 3200m should be perfect for him. He has performed on rain affected going if the rains come, is perfectly drawn in barrier 1 to get a good smother, and will be well ridden by ex patriot South African Jeff Lloyd. Plenty to like about Nom Du Jeu, he has an excellent winning chance and must be included in all forms of betting on the race.

6. Yellowstone - When I first glanced at this 5yo entire's form and saw 54.1 next to his name, I thought that was the weight he carried at his most recent start. Alas, it was actually the margin by which Septimus defeated him. Now, despite the track being heavy that day, despite the fact he drops a massive 8kg on that WFA performance, along with the jockey being far too inexperienced in Australian conditions plus we have no idea whether he has travelled and acclimatised, barrier 12 means he will need plenty of luck in running, etc etc etc. No, leave him out.

7. Zipping - Seems to have been around the top for years this 7yo gelding, however on his day, is as good as the local horses can produce for this race. His run in the Turnbull Stakes was excellent, his subsequent run in the Cox Plate coming from a long way back and circling the field was also outstanding. If he can produce a run equivalent to either of those, then he has a realistic winning chance. Regrettably, there are a couple of him, so we have to take him on trust. 7yos have an absolutely woeful record in the Melbourne Cup, he ahs drawn barrier 16, which although it sounds ordinary, that will probably suit him so he can back with cover and run home late. If the real Zipping attends Flemington tomorrow, then he will run a great race. Each way, place, exotic chance only.

8. Mad Rush - Those who saw this English stayer's Caulfield Cup run, were in a mad rush to get on him in the big one. Damian Oliver has a terrific record in the Melbourne Cup, rides Flemington like he was planted there as a youngster instead of a tuft of grass and from barrier 4, one can only see the 5yo entire obtaining the gun run of the race. There are a couple of queries about, especially distance wise compared to the other European horses, as he has not won past 2380m. He has not won on rain affected going, plus he has only won 2 races. How many local Class 2 horses would we ever see line up in a Melbourne Cup? Very few is the answer to that question. So he has to be at his impeccable peak for tomorrow's affair. Can he win? Yes, he is one of the top overseas chances, as long as he can run out the 3200m strongly enough. Definite winning hope, must include in all forms of exotic bets.

9. Ice Chariot - It is commendable indeed that Kevin O'Brien has a runner in the 2008 version of the Cup. As an owner he is terrific for racing, a most likable bloke & enjoys every minute he spends on a race track. There should be more Kevin and Tanith O'Briens in this world. Alas, Ice Chariot would have to start 30 seconds before the rest of the field to have any winning hope. Admittedly, he has qualified, as a Derby winner, however his form is simply not good enough to beat most of his opponents tomorrow. No.

10. Viewed - Bart Cummings is the Cups King, he trains this 5yo entire, and always has his horses cherry ripe for Cup day. Nevertheless, what in goodness's name is this bloke doing in the field? He has shown no form whatsoever this preparation, after winning the 2400m Brisbane Cup in June, on a bog track with an over exaggerated winning margin. Comfortably held at each of his 4 runs this time, he would have to improve dramatically to figure in the finish of this race, or even the Lavazza Long Black run a couple of hours earlier tomorrow. No.

11. Littorio - Following his Turnbull Stakes win a month ago at Flemington, this 4yo gelding firmed dramatically in markets for both big Cups. And so he should have, the win was brilliant coming from a long way back in the field to win comfortably by a length. Unfortunately, his two subsequent runs have been most disappointing, culminating in what has to be said a shocker on Saturday in the Mackinnon. Blinkers go off tomorrow, however this will only relax him more and force him to settle nearer last, and he simply hasn't shown the dash over the longer distances for us to become excited about his chances. Littorio is one we are happy to risk and not include in any form of betting.

12. Bauer - This 6yo entire has followed in the footsteps of 2002 Cup victor Media Puzzle by winning the Geelong Cup to qualify for tomorrow's race. He sat wide that day, albeit with cover, and held his opponents safely in the run to the line. A better run in the race that day was put in by Light Vision who subsequently ran a magnificent second in the Saab on Saturday, being run down in the last bound by Moatize. Light Vision should have beaten Bauer that day, he wills struggle to win the Melbourne Cup. Not to mention the fact that Damian Oliver who rode Bauer to victory at Geelong, is riding Mad Rush in the Cup. No, we can safely rule out Bauer as a wining hope, and an exotic chance as well.

13. Boundless - We all love Steven & Trevor McKee for their feats with Sunline, who will ever forget her. Steven kindly autographed a photo of Sunline for us at Royal Randwick one day, a nicer bloke you could not meet. And he has indeed qualified this 4yo mare for the Melbourne Cup and she is entitled to have her opportunity. The fact is her form is woeful, she has no winning hope, nor even a remote place chance unless she puts a form reversal of dynamic proportions, and half the field breaks down, and we don't wish that upon any horse in the race. No.

14. Gallopin - Big things were expected of this 5yogelding this spring, however he ahs taken some time to warm to his task. Last start he won the Moonee Valley Cup over 2600m, unfortunately for Gallopin, form out of this race almost never stands up in the Melbourne Cup. Prior to that, he beaten easily by Newport in the Metropolitan handicap at Randwick, the form of this race is also not what it used to be. It is very difficult to see him figuring any where near the place getters tomorrow. No.

15. Guyno - This 5yo gelding calls Western Australia his home and indeed ti is terrific to see a representative from Sandgroper territory. Nevertheless, with all due respect to owners & trainers, what is he doing in the field. The only purpose he will serve is to get in the way of serious winning chances. No.

16. Zarita - Duel Oaks winning filly last season against inferior opposition who has taken time to reach her peak for this. From barrier 1 last start in the Cox Plate, she ran an even race to finish 4th only beaten a length and a half. She will have to get a perfect trail from barrier 7 to be any chance tomorrow, left for one last run at the leaders, however she couldn't finish off at Moonee Valley, doubt she can finish off any better in the Cup. Happy to leave her out.

17. Newport - It was not long ago that Metropolitan Handicap winners were all hailed as serious winning chances in the Melbourne Cup. In fact, Newport not only won the Metrop this year, he also annexed the 2400m Brisbane Cup last year, so he has creditable form to recommend him. The issue with him is whether he can run out the strong 3200m required to be victorious on Cup day, which I suppose is a genuine query about most runners tomorrow. Newport is trained by the very astute Paul Perry, who always comes to Melbourne in the spring with serious winning chances only. Newport has a bolters hope in this years Cup, especially if some of the overseas horses are not on their metal. Include in all exotics, definite place hope.

18. Profound Beauty - Following his victory with Vintage Crop in 1993, Dermot Weld has made his life's ambition to win every version of the Melbourne Cup. He succeeded in 2002 with Media Puzzle, and he returns every year with another contender, a 5yo mare of all things. There has been a bit of money in the past few days to say she can run a good race however, her last start 3rd at Leopardstown tells us she will struggle in the Cup. The two horses who beat her on the heavy track that day, were beaten pointlessly by Septimus at their previous outing. Yes, she does drop a massive 7.5kg tomorrow, nevertheless she will have to improve, or Septimus retard for her to be a winning chance. Happy to leave her out completely as mares (with one obvious exception in Makybe Diva) have dreadful records in the Melbourne Cup, also plenty of other queries about her including her Danehill breeding and ability to get the journey strongly. No.

19. Red Lord - Have to be blunt here, he is very fortunate to even be in the field. His form is simply not good enough to win a Melbourne Cup, or even threaten to run a place. Easy fold, leave him out, he should be there tomorrow.

20. Varevees - Why did the owners spend their money bringing a 6yo mare to Australia? Party time, maybe, that can be the only answer, unless of course the VRC foots the bill. Her form is woeful against less thans erious opposition, she has drawn 23, the only positive for her is jockey Craig WIlliams, and not even his magic can get her home in the first 15. No.

21. Prize Lady - Again, we have to be blunt, why is this 7yo mare even in the race? She has been beaten over 16 lengths cumulatively at her last 3 runs in far inferior grade to what she meets tomorrow. No.

22. Allesandro Volta - 4yo entire who should have a name change to Absolute Bolter. Beaten no less than 35 lengths at his last run, over 15 lengths cumulatively at his previous two runs, again, why is he here? Maybe as a pacemaker, don't know, don't care, cannot win, cannot place. No.

23. Barbaricus - Twelve days ago when we wrote the Caulfield Cup preview, we said this bloke should not be in the field. How wrong we were. He ran the race of his life at Caulfield, sitting wide early, going to the lead, then fighting on like a cut snake in the straight to run a magnificent 3rd. He then came out on Saturday in the WFA MAckinnon Stakes, jumping a massive 6.5kg again shoots away with a good break only to be run down in the last stride by Thesio. He drops 8kg on that run, he is in the Cup as much as any other horse in the race. Stephen Baster will give the gun run from barrier 3, he will be in front at the 200m mark, only time will tell if he can hang on. Serious winning chance, definite place chance, include in all exotics.

24. Moatize - 8 weeks ago, this 4yo was a maiden, a horse who had not won a race. Going into the Cup tomorrow, he can only boast two victories, the most recent in the Saab on Saturday which secured his place in the field. He is trained by Bart Cummings so has to be respected. However he received 4kg from Light Vision on Saturday, was only able to run him down in the final bound, prior to that he was beaten well by Bauer at Geelong who sat wide the whole way. Never doubt Bart's magic when it comes to the Melbourne Cup, however we cannot have Moatize in any way shape or form.

How will the race be run? As always, plenty of pace, horses coming over from the outside barriers trying to obtain a good position will make for a fast pace. Even if this doesn't occur, some horses will pull hard off a slow speed and jockeys will be forced to take them toward the lead. As always, whoever obtains the easiest run in transit, with cover, without doing any hard work, and then gains clear running in the early part of the straight will win. As long as they are able to run out the 3200m strongly.

The serious winning chances are Nom Du Jeu, Barbaricus, Septimus, MadRush, Zipping & Master O'Reilly. Definite place & exotic chances to Cest La Guerre, Honolulu, & Newport.

Dry track selections:-
1 Nom De Jeu 2 Barabaricus 3 Septimus 4 Zipping

Rain affected track selections:-
1 Nom De Jue 2 Septimus 3 Cest La Guerre 4 Newport

Best of luck to everyone punting on the Cup tomorrow. Always remember, a horse in the market (under $20) will win, and there will always be a long shot (over $33) run a place.

Derby Day Preview

2008-10-31T14:47:00.001+10:00

Derby Day Preview

At long last, the great day has arrived. After a 12 month wait, the day every hardened punters salivates about is now only one sleep away, Derby Day at Flemington race course in Melbourne. This meeting has long been regarded as the best all round meeting held in Australia every year on the first day of the Melbourne Cup carnival. It has something for every taste, a new season 2yo race, an open 1200m sprint, the two major lead ups to the big one on Tuesday next, the major lead up to the Oaks run on Thursday, plus 3 races for the 3yos including the Blue Ribband, the VRC Derby. As always, the major talking point is the track and how it will play. Currently, mid afternoon Friday, the track is a dead (4), showers are forecast, however the most critical issue is the irrigation that has been deliberately sprayed onto the racing surface to take the sting out of the ground. Following only 3mm of actual rainfall this week, a massive 30mm of irrigation has been poured onto the track, thus with the rail back in the normal position, this could mean a big bias for punters to account for before placing bets. There is an excellent chance the track will play to an on pace on fence bias, as it usually does on Derby day. Put this together with the fact that the main form lines coming into the meeting derive from Caulfield two weeks ago where virtually no horse could make ground from the rear in the straight, then punters are faced with a real conundrum. The straight races as usual should play to the outside fence, therefore wide barriers will be of little consequence, in fact, they should be an advantage.

Let's look at the main races individually, we'll leave the 2yo event to those who have a far better knowledge & prowess of them than we could ever admit to:-

Carbine Club Stakes - looks a strong race for the 3yos this year, after what has been a few disappointing years for the race. There are plenty of chances despite the smallish field with Millbank, Caymans, Dr Doutes, Trustus & Tameer all having undeniable chances. We'll stick our neck out and select a last start maiden winner jumping to a Group 3 race, a feat in winning which is rarely achieved. Nevertheless, Grand Couture signalled in winning his latest outing at Bendigo that a city win was certainly within his grasp defeating the older horses in that maiden. From the astute Lee Freedman yard who place their horses with aplomb, he is up to this race without doubt following his 4 length victory over the 1400m last time. This followed a luckless second at Ballarat on that dubiously biased track where he was one of the only horses to make ground from the rear all day. Grand Couture is a gelding with plenty of promise and will give this race a real shake tomorrow. We doubt Millbank can figure in the finish, he fell in at Moonee Valley last Saturday, Caymans & Dr Doutes the hardest to beat.

Saab Quality (formerly Hotham Handicap) - Last chance Stakes for these to qualify for the big one on Tuesday, winning gains automatic entry, the rest will struggle to make the field. We have been following Light Vision for over 12 months now with great success. He is a most consistent horse and rarely puts in a poor one. Last start in the Geelong Cup his run had to be seen to be believed. He sat 3 and 4 wide the entire trip, then had the audacity to hit the front on straightening, only to fold under pressure over the final 150m. He still ran 4th, a Herculean performance beaten just on 2 lengths by Bauer who has plenty of admirers for the Melbourne Cup. If Light Vision gets into the field, then Bauer will not beat him on Tuesday. However Light Vision has to win the Saab to get into the Cup field. This he should achieve without too much fuss. How unlucky is Newport, win the time honoured Metropolitan, yet cannot even make it into the Caulfield Cup field, let alone the Melbourne Cup. In days gone by, Metrop winners were amongst the favourites in both big events, alas, no more. Newport has a great chance tomorrow. Plenty of money for Largo Lad today, so he is also expected to run a good race, field falls away dramatically from there, and you could not imagine in your wildest dreams a Cup winner coming from the remainder.

Wakeful Stakes - The 3yo fillies final lead up to the Oaks, the winner usually coming from this event. Very tough affair, nothing jumps out and grabs you, we could have 5-6 picks and miss a placegetter. Be very wary of the Caulfield bias from two weeks ago in this event, where Estee won over 2000m. Some of her opponents got a long way back and simply could make up the ground so we could see a form reversal or two here. For the record only, Poco Gusto to improve, Estee an undeniable chance, as are Miss Scarletti & Sparks Fly.

Coolmore (formerly the Ascot Vale Stakes) - The 3yos get another chance to shine in a Group 1 here this time over the straight 1200m. If times account for anything, then Northern Meteor is a living certainty. He has broken track records at Canterbury & Royal Randwick at his last two starts, the most recent a 5 length drubbing of a Group 3 field of 3yos. If he handles the straight track, then the race is as good as over, the others are simply lining up for the minor share of the prizes. Wilander beat Lucky Secret (who has won since) at Caulfield last start, he must have a good chance, as does the unbeaten Fist Of Fury, although he has been racing inferior opposition. Hayes brings Von Costa De Hero back from the 1600m of the Guineas for this, he is no Weekend Hussler, simply cannot win. The race falls away after this, with last start Brisbane winner on a slow track Portland the best of a mediocre bunch. Northern Meteor looks a good thing, Wilander a moral quinella.

MacKinnon Stakes - As with all the WFA races this spring, this race looks down on quality & depth, nevertheless, we are here to find a winner, not complain about the mediocrity in middle distance events in Australia. There are only a handful of chances, with massive form reversals required for most to win. Barbaricus ran a magnificent third in the Caulfield Cup, sitting wide then leading and doing all the hard work in the run. Again, his run may have been flattered due to the bias that day, however if he puts in like that again tomorrow, then he will go very close to winning. Princess Coup has a great chance, this race is usually reserved for the unlucky runner of the Cox Plate, and she got too far back and was poorly ridden that day. She is in the MacKinnon up to her ears. If Lottorio runs as he did in the Turnbull here a month ago, then he will almost win the race. He simply wasn't up to the Caulfield Cup, this might be his race. The only other possible winning hope is Red Ruler, however he had something amiss in the Caulfield Cup, and it is doubtful he could recover in a fortnight from that hard run, however he is an exotic hope. Tough race, maybe take quinellas and trifectas around the main 4.

VRC Derby - Already plenty written and spoken about this race. However, take out Whobegotyou, and what do we have? A bunch of mediocre 3yos given the opportunity to win a Group 1. If there is pace on & Whobegotyou runs the 2500m okay, and there is no on pace bias, then he is simply the best thing in a Derby since Mahogany back in the early 90s. The others won't get within the width of the Yarra of him, the race is as good as over. Carnero fired up badly with the blinkers on first time last start, Rawiller replaced by Shane Dye tomorrow, he could improve dramatically, especially over the 2500m which he has been looking for all spring. He is the only danger to Whobegotyou as long as he settles all right. Pre Eminence led on the leader bias at Caulfield last start, he will lead again, hopefully setting up a good speed which will suit the formerly mentioned two. He cannot however win a Derby unless the track is again biased toward front runners.

Myer Classic - Group 1 for fillies & mares, Yukko. An absolute lottery, simply throw into a hat the 16 names, and draw them out, as good a chance as any of selecting the winner. I don't even know where to start, preferably something drawn an inside barrier that will sit just off the speed, 3rd or 4th on the fence, that one will win.

Salinger Stakes - This used to be the crack sprint of the carnival and a Group 1 race, how times have changed. All things being equal, Sunburnt Land should win. He is a model of consistency, taken on and beaten everything thrown at him thus far, has drawn the middle so he can either go inside or out depending on where jockey Chris Symons chooses, he is the one to beat. Plenty of other chances, Nuclear Medicine will run a very good race, as will Swick who always goes well down the straight at his home track. Hot Danish, Biscayne Bay and Bon Hoffa the other hopes.

Well, there you have it, a complete run down on all the main races for tomorrow. Seriously, we suggest you watch the first 2-3 races to work out if there is or isn't any track bias. Watch prevailing weather conditions, look for those drawn out in the straight races, and avoid wide barriers in the non straight races. Best of luck to everyone having a punt on Derby day. We will send out our usual email to members in the morning with the best bets of the day.

2008 WS Cox Plate

2008-10-24T09:46:00.000+10:00

The time honoured W S Cox Plate is always remembered in Australian racing annuls as the race the best horse in the country wins. Any thoroughbred with ambitions of claiming the number 1 title simply has to have a Cox Plate victory in his resume or serious doubts are caste upon a legitimate claim to fame. All the greats have won the race, run on a saucer shaped track a short journey north east of the city of Melbourne in Victoria. Though the track is less than ideal to give every horse the best winning opportunity, somehow, greatness does ebb to the surface most years for the best horse to prove victorious.

In years gone by there have also been some outstanding clashes between similarly great race horses. These head to head clashes have been immortalised adding to the excitement of the race. Nevertheless, harsh reality has struck us all between the eyes for the 2008 version of the champion's race, with what has to be said a less than quality field lining up tomorrow afternoon. Honestly, if you had read all the names of the starters out a month ago, hailing each one a winner of the Cox Plate, how many would you have thought had the ability to be there on race day, let alone win the great race? As little as a month ago, only two entrants were even thought of as being aimed at the race, and they are the Kiwi mare Princess Coup along with the best 3yo filly in NSW Samantha Miss. Add the Lloyd Williams trained Zipping, and possibly the completely out of form Maldivian I doubt any of the others were remote outsiders to make the field. However the lack of depth simply proves the arguement that Australian middle distance & staying stocks are badly depleted in this era and steps need to be taken immediately to rectify the situation. Yes, possibly this is the best field of 12 that could have been assembled, however that does not mean the race meets the reverence and esteem of previous years. In fact, we believe the 2008 version is the weakest, certainly in the modern era, more likely the weakest of all time. A very sad indictment on such a great race.

Nevertheless, one horse will indeed become part of the legendary history of Cox Plate winners tomorrow afternoon, and seriously, not too many of the starters deserve such a high accolade. In fact, in a few years time we will look back and wonder how some of the horses even got into the field. Princess Coup, Samantha Miss both deserve their position and both also deserve to be given a great winning chance. Zipping on his best form would be a worthy Cox Plate placegetter, so striking such a weak lot this year places him in an excellent winning position. Now, unless there is a massive form reversal from one of the other runners, or the former 3 strike extreme bad luck, that is your race. We have followed Master O'Reilly's career from the early days, backing him at almost every one of his starts. He is a great favourite of ours especially after his Caulfield Cup victory last year. However, not even completely biased minds such as ours could ever contemplate the Master being a Cox plate champion, despite the weakness of this years field.

Firstly, we'll discount those who simply cannot win. Raheeb was beaten a minute in the Epsom and should not be in the field, Gallant Tess, a fine mare, however she is simply not up to a Cox Plate. It would take a form reversal of a most extreme course to believe Sirmione could possible figure in the finish. Zarita unfortunately for trainer Pat Hyland in a similar boat. Cest La Guerre struggled to get past Duoro Valley in the Caulfield Stakes and he finished distanced last week in the Caulfield Cup, impossible to consider Cest La Guerre as a winning hope. It hurts to say it, however Master O'Reilly is out of his depth in a true Cox Plate, this year may be different, however it is difficult to see him figuring in the finish. His aim for 2008 has always been the Melbourne Cup, and that is where his future lies.

Now, let's look at how the race will be run. Big Maldivian has blinkers on for the first time tomorrow in an attempt to sharpen him up. And that the blinkers will most definitely do, and if he manoeuvres himself with the aplomb to get out of the barriers unscathed and on equal terms, then he will shoot straight to the front and lead easily. Regrettably for likable trainer Mark Kavanagh, big Mal will be gone at the school near the 800m mark and will be a sitting shot for the run on horses. The Gai Waterhouse trained Epsom Handicap victor Thesio will also begin well from the outside barrier and will come across the face of the field to sit second, either outside Maldivian or in behind him depending on how quick the blinkers make Mal go. It is impossible to imagine Thesio being in the finish of a Cox Plate, however, he does have a rank outside place hope this year, as he will be on top of the speed and will fight on in the straight. The key to the race is where the main hopes position up in the run. From barrier 2 Samantha Miss has to race closer than she has in her Sydney victories, possibly 3rd or 4th on the fence with such a fast pace. Princess Coup & Zipping always get a long way back, and considering the fast pace, then that should be the case again tomorrow. They will get the opportunity to run on however as they have the ability and more quality than their opponents in the race. So long as they are not more than 6-8 lengths from the leaders coming to the 800m, then they should be able to get home over the top of most of them.

So, we've discounted the majority of the field as winning hopes, we are now left with Samantha Miss, Princess Coup, Zipping and the Mick Price trained Alimosa. Three of these are of the fairer sex, and mares don't win Cox Plates unless they are outstanding, whilst only one 3yo filly has ever won the race. So what does this mean, Zipping is a certainty? Well, if the real Zipping fronts up at Moonee Valley tomorrow, that may well be the case, however there a couple of him, and he will need to be right on his metal to salute. Everything will have to go his way, he will have to have a cosy run, with cover, get clear by the school in plenty of time to wind up, then have an unchequered passage over the final 600m to figure in the finish. Hate to say it, but it certainly looks like a females race in 2008. It is doubtful Alimosa has the class to win, despite an emphatic victory in the Toorak handicap. That form rarely stands up in a Cox Plate, although this is an unusual year.

Down to the nitty gritty. Princess Coup has taken all before her in New Zealand this year. She has beaten the best, and her form in Australia this time last year was also outstanding and right up with the best we could put together. She has the class to win, the only minor concern is how far back she will get, and whether she too can secure a clear run from the 800m. If all goes well, she will run either first or second. Her travel arrangements have been less than ideal for such a big race, and she only arrived in Australia yesterday, so that in itself has to be a query, however she has travelled here before, hopefully nothing has gone awry. Samantha Miss as stated should race closer to the pace tomorrow, she has the services of leading Group 1 jockey Glen Boss, has no weight and is definitely the horse with the most potential in the race. This time next year, we may well be saying she is the best horse in the country, however, we don't have a crystal ball to see if that will be the case.

When the business end of the race starts at the school, Maldivian will tire, giving Thesio the unenviable task of taking the lead and being left a sitting shot. As Maldivian tires out of the race Samantha Miss will ease into the race nicely with a trail behind Thesio, then Boss will shoot her to the front as the field wheels into the short straight. Princess Coup, Alimosa & Zipping will all have taken off out wide at the 800m and will have to be within 2 lengths of the filly on the turn to beat her with her light weight. They will try valiantly, but in vain. Samantha Miss will become only the second filly in history to win a Cox Plate. Why? Because she is the best horse in the field, she will get the best run from a good barrier, has the feather weight to carry and as intimated earlier, hindsight being the wonderful thing that it is, in 12 months time she will be hailed as the best horse in Australia. In any normal Cox Plate year, a 3yo filly would have no winning hope, this year she does and will.

Our selections:-

1 Samanatha Miss
2 Princess Coup
3 Zipping
4 Thesio

Best of luck to everyone having a punt on the race. Hopefully it will be a clean affair with every horse obtaining every opportunity to win.

Dominance of Overseas Horses Spring 2008

2008-10-23T10:42:00.000+10:00

Following the victories of the Goldolphin All The Good in the Caulfield Cup on Saturday plus the Luka Cumani trained Bauer in the Geelong Cup yesterday, questions must be asked about the quality of middle distance horses being produced in Australia. However the issue probably goes even deeper than this when we look at the field for Australia's number WFA event, the Cox Plate being run this Saturday at Moonee Valley, where it must be said the field looks to be the weakest in many, many years.

Let's firstly go back 12 months to the Spring of 2007 which was held in the midst of the EI crisis, and look at who won the major races. Caulfield Cup was taken out by Master O'Reilly, who had legitimately come through his grades in Victoria and proved a superior stayer on the day. The ease of his victory, 2.3 lengths, however levelled certain questions at the strength of the field considering a month previous Master O'Reilly was running at provincial tracks in Victoria. His rank failure in his next appearance in the Melbourne Cup also cast considerable doubt about the form of the Caulfield event. The Cox Plate was taken out by the Colin Little trained El Segundo who certainly deserved the accolade of being a Cox plate champion after winning several Group 1 races throughout the 2006/07 season, and being runner up in the Plate the year before. The big one on the first Tuesday in November 2007, went to the Lloyd Williams owned Efficient, who had not won a race since the VRC Derby of 2006, outsiders filling all placings. So as far back as the spring of 2007, there were most definitely question marks over the form of the major races. Even if we go back another year or two, where we saw the great old stager Fields of Omagh win two Cox Plates, with all due respect to him, the writing was on the wall some time ago. The fact is since the halcyon days of the late 90s early 2000s, where we saw the likes of Northerly, Sunline, Elvestrom, Lonhro dominating the great races around the country, Australian horses have since been left behind by overseas invaders. This includes those from the land of the long white cloud, and the situation has really been brought to fruition during the Spring of 2008. It has now become a crisis that cannot be ignored by administrators any longer.

If we look closely at the result of the 2008 Caulfield Cup, the best runs in the race came from the winner, All The Good, runner up Nom De Jur and 4th placegetter Mad Rush, all bred and trained outside of Australia. The 3rd placegetter, Danny O'Brien trained Barbaricus, was lucky to even obtain a start in the race being first emergency and even the best optimism of O'Brien would have given his other two runners in the race Douro valley & Master O'Reilly much more chance than the 150/1 shot Barbaricus. The favourites were not cited. Weekend Hussler who is allegedly the best horse in Australia has not won beyond 1800m, and after his effort at Caulfield, must now be left to run in race up to 1600m only. Douro Valley who was runner up in the Caulfield Cup in 2007, went on to win the major lead up to both Caulfield Cup & Cox Plate in 2008 the Caulfield Stakes, was beaten further than you or I could throw a cricket ball. Master O'Reilly finished 7th last Saturday after winning the event in 2007, however he didn't even get warm in 2008.

So where will the winner of the 2008 Melbourne Cup appear from? Certainly not from any of the Australian stayers. There must be extreme doubt cast over the form of 2007 Cup winner Efficient following the failures this spring of any horse who performed well in 2007. This leaves only the overseas horses to stand up. All The Good, Mad Rush, Bauer & Nom De Jur are all in form, fit and ready to tackle the 3200m on Tuesday week. Throw in Coolmore's Septimus and it is very likely Australian horses will not a fill a placing in the first 5 of this years great race. What a tragic indictment for the Australian racing & breeding industry if this was to occur, and it most likely will.

So why has this happened, what does it mean, and where are we heading? Firstly, this has obviously occurred because Australian breeders are only interested in breeding speedy 2yo squibs to race for the extremely over funded 2yo races like the Magic Millions & Golden Slipper. You cannot blame owners, breeders & trainers for attacking the big prize money, they would be crazy not to. Race schedulers around the country are the one's to blame as rarely do we see more than one race further than 1600m on any race meeting's program. This includes provincial & country racing, in fact most country meetings don't ever see a race of a distance further than 1600m. So why should breeders breed stayers, why should owners buy them, why should trainers even bother to train them in some parts of the country. We cannot answer that question. An even sadder truth is the horses bred for speed to race early, either lose form or break down and rarely race on past their 3yo season.

The ramifications for the industry are far reaching. More horses are being bred, creating a far more even spread ability wise of thoroughbreds racing in the country. There are far too many stallions and non commercial broodmares creating a severe lack of quality throughout the breed in recent years. Where are the champions of the turf in 2008? Don't tell me Weekend Hussler who can't race well beyond a mile is a champion. We haven't seen an outstanding race horse in this country since Lonhro, Sunline or Northerly, and they were at their peaks some 6-7 years ago. And there certainly are not any Might & Powers nor has there been since his reign back in the late 90s. Where are the outstanding WFA horses, even stepping back a notch to the likes of a Filante or a Juggler or an Octagonal who were always competitive in Cox Plates. The quality is not getting any better and the racing industry as a whole needs to look very closely at this and rectify the situation because if they don't, in 10 years time Australia won't even have a runner in the Melbourne Cup. Even the great Makybe Diva was able to win a race like the Cox Plate, a race she certainly would not have won had the field been of previous years quality. She was a great horse, a great stayer, one of which it is unlikely we will ever see again.

Look at the 2008 Cox Plate field. Now, think back about a month to mid September, and say out loud how many of the starters in the race at Moonee Valley on Saturday you honestly thought would be there on the day. That is not even to say how many you thought may have been winning chances a month ago, but how many actually achieved a start. Seriously, there are only two horses in Saturday's race that we thought one month ago may have been there, Princess Coup & Samantha Miss. There are 4 or 5 who would have never made the field, never even have gone close to making the field in some years like 1996, 1997, or 2001. The 2008 version of Australia's number 1 WFA event, is the weakest we have seen in over 45 years of following horse racing. In fact, we would have to say the quality of the field this year brings the name W S Cox Plate into disrepute.

Another impact the lack of quality horses is having is on the punter. The punter is in our opinion the backbone of the racing industry in Australia, without it is doubtful whether the industry would exist at all. He is the one who fronts up day after day, week after week outlaying his hard earned in the ultimate endeavour to find that elusive winner. The task set for punters is now enormous with all these overseas horses it is becoming increasingly difficult for him to piece together form lines. Not to mention whether the overseas horse has travelled well, settled in, acclimatised, eaten well. He has no idea, after so many dismal failures over the years by the likes of Oscar Schindler & Maamool, we then see All The Good & Taufan's Melody win Caulfield Cups completely friendless in the betting markets. And who can blame the punter for shying away from them after previously bad experiences. The other impact on the punter is with the poorer quality Australian stayers lining up in the big Group1 races, this leaves another void in the lesser events over the carnival, the Group 2 middle distance race, and the time honoured Country Cups that are held at this time of the year. Seymour, Benalla, Cranbourne & Moe have all held their version already this year, along with Geelong yesterday, and it must be said their Cup fields have been of lesser quality than what punters would normally become enthused about. Cranbourne in particular generally throws up a couple of Caulfield Cup runners, not this year. And again, as we spiral down through the grades, the dearth of quality horse flesh in these lesser races then impacts on the non Group city races, as well as Class racing around the provincial and country areas. Horses are now racing well out of their grade, it is becoming increasingly difficult for horses to string together several victories, and form lines are certainly not holding up as the used to. The punters conundrum is becoming greater by the day.

So the impact of the breeding industry, along with race scheduling is certainly far reaching. What will Racing Victoria & the VRC say publicly when no Australian horses finish in the first 5 or 6 in the Melbourne Cup? They will spruik how truly an International race that we now have and we should all be very proud to be Australian and be a part of it. And we should all be very proud to be Australian, indeed, however you may leave us out of supporting the giving of our major trophy and prize money to the hit and run visitors who put little else back in to Australian racing other than for one or two days of the year. That prize money in itself, if spread throughout the industry would do far more good than thrown at those who don't need it, those only wishing to prance around in the limelight for a day or two then disappear for another 12 months all at our expense. And all in the name of being a truly international event.

Bring back the days of Might & Power leading all the way, bring back the days of Sunline demoralising a top class field, bring back the days of the fighting tiger Northerly staving off all challengers. Please bring us some stayers who are able to compete at the highest level again.

Caulfield Cup

2008-10-17T19:48:00.002+10:00

The Caulfield Cup

If the Melbourne Cup is the race that stops a nation, then the Caulfield Cup is the race that stops 90% of the nation 17 days earlier. Always remembered for being the best horses race, the Caulfield Cup is as meaningful to rank & file punters as is the Melbourne Cup is to the once a year punter. The 2008 version as always brings together the best horses in Australia, coupled with the best from New Zealand, with a few European adventurers for good measure. It looks a great race on paper, barrier draws appeared to have really evened out the main winning chances, as we have become accustomed to, luck in running will play the most vital role.

The weather in Melbourne will be fine, the track will be dead, unfortunately irrigation has been again been used to "affect" the track. Hopefully by the first race this will not have any affect or bias on the results of any of the ten races at Caulfield, in particular the Cup.

There are more horses in race that cannot win, than have serious winning chances. This happens every year, the MRC want a capacity field, owners & trainers want their horse to run and who can blame them, the thrill of having a runner in the Caulfield Cup would fulfill most owners ultimate racing dream. Regrettably what this means, is that some serious winning hopefuls will not obtain the necessary luck to be able to win this prestigious event, with some horses with little or no winning hope, will simply get in the way of the good horses. And this is why the horse who obtains the best run, without interference, will win the 2008 Caulfield Cup.

Firstly let's attack who cannot win. Top weight Weekend Hussler has drawn extremely awkwardly in barrier 11, this is his first attempt at 2400m, he hasn't won beyond 1800m, so he will require every tiny little thing to go his way for him to win. From the barrier, he has to go forward, having never raced over the distance, he will be expecting a faster speed, and with no other known leader in the race, he may well even be forced to take up the running himself. Either way, he will use up plenty of petrol in the early stages, and will be a spent force when the others get serious at the 600m mark. No Weekend Hussler in the 2008 Caulfield Cup.

Prepost 2007 favourite Maldivian, who was scratched at the barrier, fronts up again in 2008, however his form this time around has not given supporters or punters a lot to become enthused about. In fact, his recent efforts have been very weak. From barrier 18, he will have to come across the field to get to the fence and lead early, he will pull fiercely and will use up all his energy in the initial 600m of the race. No Big Mal in 2008.

We then have to ask how & why a few others actually got into the race. Ice Chariot, Viewed, Fiumicino, Dolphin Jo, Riva San, Zagreb, Barbaricus, not to mention the emergencies, honestly have no winning chance, all they will do is get in the road of the cream. Yes, they qualified to gain a start under the rules, so they do deserve their moment of glory, let's hope they don't ruin the chances of another.

There are two European horses who have attained a start, neither of whom we can line up properly against the better Autralian & New Zealand horses. Mad Rush and All The Good will both require plenty of speed on, and they should get it, as there is always plenty of pace in a Caulfield Cup, 2008 will be no different. The big if is, have they settled in & acclimatised so they can perform at their peak? From experience, rarely do the European or Japanese perform unless they have had one feeler run before they peak. Both will run good races, doubt either can win first up in Australia.

New Zealand give us three realistic chances in the 2008 Caulfield Cup, or do they? Nom De Juere & Red Ruler quinellad the AJC Derby over 2400m in April, assuring both of a walk up start in the Caulfield Cup. How strong was that for? Considering the EI situation in Australia late 2007, many horses simply were not at their peak for the autumn carnival placing grave doubt on the form coming from it. Look at the Group 1 winners from the autumn, and only those who were EI free have gone on from there, most others have showed the form simply does not stand up. Both Nom De Jue & Red Ruler have failed to impress since the autumn, failing to win the major Group 1s in NZ. In saying that, both have undeniable chances in the 2008 Caulfield Cup, as the race is not strong, with Red Ruler from the inside obtaining a perfect run in transit. Unfortunately Nom De Jue has drawn 20, he will need everything to go his way to win. The third of the NZ contingent is the Steven McKee trained mare Boundless, doubtful she can beat Red Ruler, so happy to risk her.

Well, that doesn't leave us with too many reallistic chances, does it? 2007 winner Master O'Reilly, Turnbull Stakes victor Lottorio, 2007 runner up Douro Valley & the David Hayes trained master of the form reversal Guillotine. If someone had have told me 12 months ago Guillotine was a Caulfield Cup winner, I would have immediately signed them into the One Flew Over The Cuckoos Nest asylum. Would you have believed it? No, so let's leave him out as well.

The best guide to the Caulfield Cup has always been the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington a fornight before. Lottorio won well that day, sitting off the pace, then producing an exciting finishing burst that had Group 1 winner written all over it. He has an undeniable winning chance. However, he rises 1kg on that victory, plus the increase of 400m in distance, so there is a slight query there. He has drawn barrier 10, so will need luck to get scross to get a cosy run, a run that will be required to win a Caulfield Cup. Steven King is the man for that job, most experienced, happy to have him on anything I back at any time of the year, especially Cup time. Lottorio is in the race right up to his ears.

2007 runner up Douro Valley showed last week at Caulfield he is now fit and ready to show his best in the 2008 version by winning the WFA Caulfield Stakes. Ridden like the good thing he was, James Winks took the gelding straight to the front, to lead all the way over 200m. From barrier 2 tomorrow, Douro Valley will get the run of the race, and like last year, he will look the winner at the top of the straight and will run the 2400m right out. Douro valley a real hope of going one better in 2008.

2008 victor Master O'Reilly has only had two runs back from a spell to fit him for the 2008 assignment. However, he did have a mid year preparation, so only had a couple of weeks in the paddock and has been in work for as long as most of the others. His run behind Lottorio in the Turnbull was outstanding, meets him 1.5kg better and will strip much fitter for the outing. He has had two starts at Caulfield voer 2400m, both have resulted in wins. The only issues with him, is barrier 13 (he came from 6 last year to win after a cosy run and a great ride), and whether he is fit enough. His obvious target this year is the first Tuesday in November, however after his Turnbull effort, one simply cannot sell him short for 2008 Caulfield Cup, If Vlad Duric can get him across from the barrier one off the fence, then bring him into the race at the 800m, he is a serious winning chance.

Should be a terrific race, looking forward to it immensely, let's hope we don't have the drama we endured in 2007 in the lead up when Maldivian & Eskimo Queen were a late scratchings at the barrier. Our selections are:-

1 Master O'Reilly
2 Douro valley
3 Lottorio
4 Red Ruler

Best of luck to all those having a punt in the Caulfield Cup.

Saturday Winners

2008-09-14T15:52:00.003+10:00

The Spring racing is really warming up now and with it the winners are starting to flow freely once again. It was a cold, dim, an almost puntless winter. However with all the decent horses back in work and racing at their peak, wet tracks all but obliterated from our memories, plus form lines holding up across the country, we can expect nice profits now from here until the end of March at least.

Three selections yesterday for three winners, the best being Deacon at Eagle Farm. Regrettably, all were very short, nevertheless, we rebuild our bank slowly after the winter losses. Our other two winners yesterday were at Rosehill Gardens in the shape of the unbeaten Kiloton & Charming Rogue. Both are heading toward an Epsom handicap start, obviously both can't win, although both should be competitive. The Epsom is shaping as an extremely good race this year, with Ashikaga and several other up and comers likely starters. Should be a terrific race.

Last Saturday the good thing of the day in Light Vision duely saluted at top fluctuation of $3.20. So we are certainly back in form just in time for the better spring races that lay ahead.

Our horses to follow are also firing, with Bon Hoffa winning last Saturday at Caulfield at better than $15 around the country. So again, plenty of winners flowing now the better horses and better tracks are around.

If you would like to be a part of all the winners, please contact us here at PASS passelections@bigpond.com

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

The Spring Is Finally Here

2008-08-18T20:07:00.002+10:00

When we see the running of the J J Liston Stakes, it is all systems go for punters to take the on ramp toward the upcoming Spring Carnival of racing.

How good is Light Fantastic? The son of Danehill Dancer extended his unbeaten run to 5 on Saturday with his win the Liston and despite the prescence of Weekend Hustler, Light Fantastic showed he is a realistic contender for all the major WFA spring races. His main aim is the Cox Plate, the only concern with him being competitive in the race is lack of Moonee Valley experience. However, the Hustler is in the same boat there. The Feehan Stakes at the Valley in September may be an ideal race for both to become more acquainted with the tight turning hallowed turf where Australia's top WFA race is held each and every year.

One of the better runs at Caulfield on Saturday came from promising middle distance performer Light Vision. He won comfortably over 1600m, a distance well short of his best, however defeated plenty of Spring hopefuls, so should not be taken lightly through the coming months. He will be well trained and placed by Robert Smerdon, Light Vision is definitely one to follow.

Our major selection on Saturday came up at Belmont in the shape of Key Biscuit. He was desparately unlucky and should have won. He was in front a stride before the line, and in front a stride after the line, however Classic Lad got his nose down at the precise moment to nail the finish. This was after coming from a long way back, circling the field and running home strongly, so Key Biscuit will pay to follow, he will redeem himself next time out. Elliotto was also mentioned in our Saturday emails and for the second successive week saluted for our members at good odds of $2.80.

So with the Spring now upon us, heaps of winners will flowing as we approach the most profitable time of the year.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

Profitable Season For PASS Members

2008-08-10T11:37:00.002+10:00

With the 2007/2008 racing season ending on July 31 the final results for the number one selections were:-

Selections 108

Winners 46

Winning Strike Rate 42.59%

Average Winning Price $2.78

POI 18.41%

So for the second successive season, the top PASS selections have shown considerable profit for the members. Unfortunately we finished the year very slowly, with an 8 bet losing sequence, which certainly affected the overall figures. Winter is always a bad time of year to be punting, with lesser quality horses, rain affected tracks along with plenty of the better class jockeys having holidays.

Nevertheless, the pressure is on once again to maintain profit levels for our members in 2008/2009. We began extremely well yesterday, when the top selection Burdekin Blues saluted easily at Eagle Farm, while the other tip Elliotto at Belmont was also victorious.

If you would like to become a member, please contact us here passelection@bigpond.com and we will assist you to show a profit punting on Australian gallops.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

McMahon Lands Helideck Safely for PASS Members

2008-05-19T09:46:00.002+10:00

Recently returned from a shoulder injury he may be, however young jockey Ric McMahon rode the perfect race to score a sensational win on Helideck in the major sprint at Doomben on Saturday afternoon. PASS memebers were informed in their Saturday morning email that Helideck was one of the best bets around the country that afternoon. He went on to win by over 2 lengths, paying top tote of $5.10, with SP at $5. However shrewd punters were able to secure fixed odds earlier in the day of $5.50 & even $6 with Sportsbet. So another very successful day for PASS members. Helideck now will be one of the strong fancies for the Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap to be run in 3 weeks at Eagle Farm.

The race was marred by a shocking fall at the 250m mark when the Bart Cummings trained Antidotes came to grief along with Group 1 winning hoop Luke Nolen. The fall looked far worse than Nolen's injuries have evolved, as Nolen only requires palate surgery as well as a full knee reconstruction. This is a far better outcome than it appeared soon after the fall on Saturday where Nolen lay unconscious on the turf for over 5 minutes. Our best wishes for a speedy recovery to Luke from all here at PASS & Gallopers.

The PASS special on Saturday was Viewed in the Group 1 Doomben Cup, however the Bart Cumming trained 4yo entire got too far out fo his ground, and despite making up many, many lengths in the straight was beaten out of a place by the Michael Moroney trained Sarerra. Not too many horses made up a lot of ground on Saturday, so Viewed will be better suited at Eagle Farm over the 2400m of the P J O'Shea Stakes & Brisbane Cup.

With the Brisbane winter carnival now in full swing, there is alwasy plenty of value to be found with winners in this period. We will endeavour to find a few more over comings weeks at Doomben on 10,000 day as well as at headquarters when the carnival shifts to Eagle Farm.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

A Magical Day for PASS Members

2008-05-15T07:50:00.002+10:00

It was certainly a magical day for PASS members yesteday after Magical Dane saluted at Balaklava. He looked a class above his rivals and was given out as the good thing of the day in our emails yesterday morning. Magical Dane did not let us down, as predicted jumping straight to the front as soon as the gates opened and although challenged in the middle stages was never headed to go on to win clearly and convincingly.

The bookies were quite generous betting $3.00 top fluctuation although he did firm in the market to start at $2.40. Top tote was $2.70 on Super TAB, with $2.40 the dividend on the other two totes. The win of Magical Dane definitely removes all memories of the horror run we endured through March & April where we found only 1 winner in 8 selections. The last two good things have now won easily so we are certainly back on track.

We have now produced exactly 100 selections this racing season for our members, resulting in a total of 46 winners at an Average Winning Price of $2.78 which gives us an overall POI of 27.88% using level stakes.

To clarify a pertinent point about our statistics, to determine AWP we use the average price of the three totes in Australia. We do not use top tote exclusvely, nor do we use top fluctuation exclusively as either which would incorrectly raise the AWP to a disproportionate level, making the statistics look far better than they actually are. Many tipping services & ratings programmers fudge these figures by using a higher dividend than most punters are able to obtain. For example, yesterday, the three tote divis for Magical Dane were $2.70, $2.40 & $2.40. The average of the three equates to $2.50, and that is the price which appears on our results page of the web site.

http://www.gallopers.com.au/misc/PASSresults0708.html

The other pertinent point about the statistics is that we only select one horse per race. So our Winning Strike Rate published is exactly that, the number of winners compared with the number of selections. There are plenty of services out there who tell all and sundry about how many winners they select, boasting massive WSR's without also offering the information they made 4 or 5 selections in the one race.

So if you are serious about winning on the punt, then PASS is clearly the most transparent & profitable service to be associated with. If you would like to be part of the winners, please contact us at passelection@bigpond.com so we can assist to make a profit from punting.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

Update

2008-05-11T11:07:00.004+10:00

Well, it's been a long time since our last post, much longer than we realised. After enduring all the problems associated with the EI outbreak, massive loss of business both through horse sales & agistment opportunities, we are finally getting back on our feet. We currently have 15 agisters here at Massie Lodge, which is a great improvement on the 4 we had throughout EI. Those 4 didn't go anywhere near covering our costs, however we are slowly getting back to normal, albeit being extremely busy.

The only thing that kept us going throughout the outbreak was the profit made via punting, without it, we would have gone broke for sure and certain. In saying that, punting issues are changing rapidly at present, now imperative the punter keeps abreast of these issues on a weekly basis. We will endeavour to update this blog on a much more regular basis from here on in.

PASS is travelling along extremely well with a current Winning Strike Rate of 45.45%. The Average Winning Price is $2.79, giving us a POI of over 26%. There has been a real hiccup over the last 6 weeks or so, which has seen the WSR & POI drop considerably, however we are confident we have overcome a few little hurdles we experienced and are now well & truely back on track.

Yesterday our sepcial of the day was Royal Discretion in the Hawkesbury Guineas. A patient ride by Nash Rawiller saw the Gai Waterhouse 3yo gelding kick clear in the straight without ever looking like being beaten. Top tote was $2.50, bookies offered a little better on track which was terrific odds about a good thing. Royal Discretion broke a long run of outs for us, only 1 other winner from our previous 8 specials, and that winner was a 2s on shot.

We have a new email address for those interested in contacting us, as the old Austarnet one continually played up:-

mailto:passelection@bigpond.com

So please feel free to let us know if you would like to be part of the winning team here at PASS, our profits will continue and should increase from here on in. We will also provide more previews and reviews than we have over the past 6 months, and will also have plenty of horses to follow for punters to profit from. We will avoid knowingly selecting odds on favourites, we will always endeavour to inform members of runners who will provide reasonable odds from which punters are able to profit.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

Derby Day Preview

2007-11-02T16:47:00.000+10:00

We dearly wish we knew how the track will play prior to posting this, however we are not mind readers and cannot predict the future. Let's preface this by saying these are our thoughts before scratchings, track conditions, and any race bias is known.

Maribyrnong Plate

Always a tough affair with three first starters to worry about. Of what we have seen, Exceedingly Good is the one to beat, however we wouldn't be jumping in at the $2.10 on offer. He only beat Nato by 1.3 lengths, and he is $13 fixed odds at present, far better each way value. David Hayes has three runners, with Craig WIlliams on the filly Ballerina Girl which is a good lead as to his best hope in the race. She is around the $3.50 mark at present and would be backable at those odds or better. Hard to see any of the other raced division figuring, which leaves us with the Rick Hore-Lacey trained Commissioned, a General Nedym colt. The breed always race well fresh and Rick would not be starting the horse unless certain he was ready to win, look out for any solid market moves for him. We'll take the fave on here at the odds and at our own peril.

Carbine Club Stakes

Lee Freedman and Mick Price hold the key here. Freedman has put stable jockey Corey Brown on Teskara who was a nice winner two starts back at Geelong, that is a lead in itself. He ran a nice 3rd at Caulfield after that, however will need luck from barrier 11. Electromotive's form is outstanding. He beat Moreton Bay by over 2 lengths two starts back, and Moreton Bay has won 2 straight since in easy fashion. Then he beat a very strong field on Moe Cup day, had he drawn an alley tomorrow, he was the one to beat. We would think those two have the wood on Freedman's other runner Moment Of Truth, although he did beat the older gallopers leading all the way last start over the 1600m. Now, Mick Price's two runners will both go very close. Stable jockey Craig Newitt went to Kilmore to ride Rightfully Yours at his first start, only to be beaten by stablemate Sound Journey who has now won 3 on end in impressive fashion. He then beat a very strong field of maidens at Ballarat, and Newitt has chosen to ride him over stablemate Schilling who he rode to victory at Cranbourne over 1400m last start. Plenty of other chances in the race including Montonari and Blue Sky. We'll take the jockey's leads here and suggest Rightfully Yours and Teskara will fight out the race.

SAAB Quality (formerly the time honoured Hotham Handicap)

Last chance for this lot of one paced plodders to get into the Melbourne Cup. The Geelong Cup form should stand up here as the two who quinellad the race had the best form going in there. The Fuzz and Zavite beat the rest clearly that day, and both have form around Master O'Reilly, Dolphin Jo and Light Vision, so that will do us. The NZ'er Sculptor might run well, Pacino will run his usual honest race, while we can expect an improvement from Chollula. If the track is playing to front runners, then Zavite will be a good thing, if playing to run on horses, The Fuzz might just nail him on the line.

Wakeful Stakes

Hopefully by this time of the afternoon, we are aware of how the track is playing and where the best running will be. If run on horses are being allowed to win, then Serious Speed looks almost unbeatable. The $4.40 on offer earlier in the week looked luxurious to say the least, she is now into $3.50 and will more than likely start shorter tomorrow. However, she will get back, has 57kg to lump, first time at 2000m, a few question marks that is for sure. Nothing she beat in the 1000 Guineas will get near he tomorrow unless track bias assists them. Antarctic Miss's run in the Guineas was outstanding, she will lead tomorrow and despite the dreadful draw, will be in front with 200m to go. If the track is playing to leaders, she will win, so at the $15 currently on offer, she is a good each way bet. The only other chance in the race is Katherine Gold. She won well at Caulfield last start and given a good run from her nice draw with Michael Rodd aboard will be in the finish tomorrow. Remember, look for prevailing track bias, then bet accordingly.

Ascot Vale Stakes

Weekend Hustler has plenty against him tomorrow, and none of his obstacles are his opponents. He has not raced for 3 weeks, he steps back from 1600m to the 1200m which is a massive task for any horse and trainer, and has an outside draw. The straight races are a lottery at the best of times, so Brad Rawiller will have to have his mind made up as to which side of the track he will head for. With only 9 runners, probably all will go to the inside, as long as it is not too badly cut up come jump time. However, at $1.50, Weekend Hustler is no betting proposition despite being classes above his rivals. Incumbent will improve tomorrow and could be an each way chance, along with Scenic Blast and Shrewd Rhythm. No bet race for us.

MacKinnon Stakes

This is a good betting race as most of the Melbourne Cup hopefuls will just be having a pipe opener for Tuesday. This leaves very few winning chances, especially considering El Segundo will not run (not that he could win, see a previous blog post). Haradasun, Pillar of Hercules, Captious and Devil Moon are the only winning chances. Given the drama surrounding Pillar Of Hercules, his ownership issues and auction sale today for $1.8m, it is impossible seeing him winning, despite such a light weight. If there is on pace bias, then Devil Moon will go close, if run on bias, then swoopers could hold the key. Haradasun will sit just off Devil Moon and have the sitting shot. If he took no harm from his Cox Plate 3rd, then he is the one to beat. Captious will run a great race at big odds, and if the track is playing on an even keel, then he will give a great sight at nice odds.

VRC Derby

Most of these horses have not really turned three as yet, so plenty of questions still to be asked. Some have the right pedigree for running out a strong 2500m, others certainly do not. The favourite is Marching, by Commands, after his emphatic victory in the strong lead up race at Moonee Valley last Saturday. However, Marching is the first of the Commands to place at further than 1600m, let alone win. There is nothing in his pedigree to suggest he will run 2500m, as there are no winners past 1600. If the race is a sit and sprint, then he is in it up to his ears, if there is a lot of pace on, then he will flounder. Will there be pace? We reckon there will be with 13 runners in the Blue Ribband. The start is only 150m from the first turn so those drawn out wide will have to go forward in an attempt to get across otherwise they get trapped wide around a 1600m bend, so that alone should ensure some pace. Marching from barrier 2 will get shuffled back and he will have to be good to win. So, who will the run on horses be? Littorio, Stockade, Best Beware, Kibbutz and Villain are probably the best of these. However please remeber, take close heed as to how the track is playing before making any punting decisions. If on pace bias exists, then a sit and sprint Marching has an excellent chance of victory. If the fence is off, and the winners are coming out wide, then Littorio and Villain are probably the two.

Myer Classic

We reluctantly called this race by the correct name, as it was only introduced a couple of years ago and has little or no history. Looks a benefit for Divine Madonna unless horses cannot make ground on the day. At level weights she is a weighted certainty, barrier 12 will make no difference as she will get back to nearly last anyway. We are stunned bookies are offering black figures about her. Unfortunately we won't know her fate until after 5 or 6 races are run tomorrow. Of the rest it is a lottery. If the track is playing to on pace runners, then Cinque Cento will race on or close to the lead, and she has been running in far superior company to her opposition other than Divine Madonna.

The Salinger

Had to call this one by the sponsors name because it has a different sponsor almost every year. Back in the 60s it was called the Craven A Stakes, that is how long the VRC has been selling off traditionalism. Straight 6 race, track bias the key, inside or outside? Inside, Stanzout goes very close to winning, his form excellent, well drawn, will get a good run, winner here two starts back, plenty to like about him. However if the best going is on the outside, he has no hope. Typhoon Zed in the same boat, has a good chance if inside is favoured. Tesbury Jack is drawn the centre, giving him a good option to go either way, and his first up win was a nice effort. Of the outside brigade, Shadoways, Storm Signal have good chances.

Ellerston Capital Stakes

Now this is a good race with a couple of very good horses involved. Top weight Royal Ida is fitter now after two runs in Adelaide and is back to peak form. Barrier is a worry, however he'll get back and run home strongly if the bias favours him. Lord Of The Dance gave nothing else a chance at Caulfield last start. We jumped on one start early with him, however if he runs up to that effort he won't be getting beaten tomorrow. He will race on pace so is the one if the track is playing to front runners. The dark horse here is Count To Zero. Forget he ever went around at Caulfield, he was only beaten just under 4 lenths after geting too far back and never seeing daylight at any stage. He will improve tomorrow and has a great chance here at $14 currently on offer.

Well, those are our thoughts for tomorrow's Flemington meeting. Please tread very warily early in the day tomorrow, check all races closely, work out any bias, and use that evidence you see to assist your punting.

We have two good things at Ascot tomorrow, plus another elsehwere in the country. Please contact us here profselections@austarnet.com.au if you would like to back some winners tomorrow.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

Fair Race Tracks For All Horses

2007-11-01T16:19:00.000+10:00

Every year around Melbourne Cup time, this issue raises its ugly head. Why? Because Racing Victoria issue an edict to every course manager to prepare race tracks to a dead (4) level. This ensures the sting is out of the ground giving horses softer going to place their feet when racing. So track managers water race courses to obtain the dead rating.

Well, we have to ask why this issue is raised every year, and why Racing Victoria issue this edict. There are two reasons why. Firstly, to appease overseas horses, especially those from Europe who are used to very soft race tracks. In fact, Racing Victoria guarantee the overseas raiders won't face hard, fast surfaces come Melbourne Cup time, ensuring a quality line up come the first Tuesday in November. The second reason tracks are watered is to appease high profile trainers who have good quality gallopers who are racing with major leg or feet problems. These Australian trainers march out this time every year inisiting track managers water, no doctor, race courses to give their horses more of a winning chance, as the trainer knows full well on a good to fast track the horses problems will not allow it to run to its full potential. And with the huge prizemoney on offer, trainers want their horses racing for these riches and to be competitive.

Again, we have to ask why? Rain affected or watered race tracks are prone to bias. Some are affected to favour on pace on fence runners giving back markers little or no hope, other rain affected tracks favour the run on horses who swoop out wide on the track giving leaders near the fence no hope. Why would any one want any sort of bias on Derby Day, Melbourne Cup day, or any day of racing for that matter.

The fact is, the majority (silent majority, non lobbying majority) would prefer a good racing surface, every day of the year. And rightly so. The best and fairest racing surface is a GOOD track. A good track should be prepared whenever and wherever possible, so every horse is allowed to run on its merits and have every possible winning opportunity.

The racing surfaces prepared by Victorian track managers are biased toward the overseas challengers and the high profile local trainers. When Australian horses travel to Hong Kong, or England to race, they cop whatever is dished up to them come race day. Our trainers certainly have no say or influence over how tracks are prepared. However Racing Victoria panders to overseas horses giving them the best track conditions, the ones they are used to at home, the ones that are in their favour, the ones they were promised.

Look at Werribee Cup day yesterday. It was the biggest joke of a track that we have witnessed since Flemington on Turnbull Stakes day when the fence (due to incessant watering) was a complete no go zone. Werribee yesterday favoured leaders, or on pace on fence horses. No horse made ground out wide, no horses won from further than two off the fence.

So, after the debacle of Flemington a month ago, Werribee yesterday, we now approach the biggest week of racing in Australia, Melbourne Cup week, when 4 meetings are held at headquarters in the space of 8 days. If Flemington plays on Saturday, anywhere like it did on Turnbull Stakes day, punters face massive losses. And if the track is biased on Derby Day, the first day of the carnival, then it will only get worse for the following three days.

Let's hope for every punters sake, the track at Flemington plays fairly to all runners for the next week. Hopefully tracks are not doctored so they become rain affected. This will give all punters the opportunity to find that elusive winner without worrying about how the track might play.

May the best horses win.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

El Segundo: A Moonee Valley Specialist

2007-10-29T08:26:00.000+10:00

Hindsight is a great medium, makes know it alls out of anyone who cares to use it. Nevertheless, hindsight can and should be used by all punters who want to be successful at their craft.

Let's take the Cox Plate run on Saturday, won by Colin Little's great middle distance horse, El Segundo. The son of Pins won "Australia's Middle Distance Championship" comfortably after being given a terrific run in transit by Luke Nolen, giving nothing else a chance in the straight. Now, before going any further, we did not bet in the race, so there is no talking from our kick happening here. We selected Haradasun in our emails to clients on Saturday, although urged caution to those wanting to bet on the race as it certainly appeared a tricky affair. The only thing that was going to beat Haradasun on Saturday was the jockey, and prophetically that is exactly what happened. Haradasun was butchered by a jockey who should have had more nouse, especially after riding 4 winners earlier in the day. Hindsight tells us our prediction was correct, the jockey lost the race for Haradasun.

El Segundo had put in an absolute shocker at his previous run in the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington, beaten over 5 lengths that day by Devil Moon and Haradasun. At his start prior to that effort, he never looked like being beaten in the Feehan Stakes at Moonee Valley, narrowly conquering Haradasun that day. We went back through both horses form very closely on Friday night, although believing El Segundo's last run was too bad to be true, and the fact that he can put in a bad one now and then, improving quickly at subsequent starts. However what did not jump out and hit us in the face were the venues of these successes and failures. At his last start last preparation, El Segundo finished 4th in the Australian Cup at Flemington beaten over 6 lengths, remember, the venue for his Turnbull Stakes failure. And go back even further to this time last year, El Segundo went within a whisker of winning the Cox Plate, after putting in a poor run in the Caulfield Stakes. El Segundo has had 3 runs at Flemington, for no wins. He has had 7 starts at Moonee Valley now, for 4 wins a second and a third, his only unplaced run came behind Lad Of The Manor & Makybe Diva in the Feehan Stakes of 2005. His third was first up over an unsuitable 1200m carrying 62.5kg. What does this tell us? El Segundo loves Moonee Valley, always has, whether it be the softer surface or the tight turning course, he thrives there. Obviously, he dislikes Flemington. So there you go, hindsight tells us El Segundo grows an extra leg at Moonee Valley, however should not be backed with countefeit money at Flemington. We should all make note of that for his future preparations.

Anyway, congratulations to Colin Little and Luke Nolen, two nice guys of racing who both deserved their victory in the Cox Plate.

As for PASS members, one winner from two selections on Saturday, with our stable horse El Presidente making up for his previous defeat by winning the last at Ascot on Saturday with ease. He is on a Railway Stakes trail and should be competitive in whatever he runs in this campaign. A Group 2 or 3 race is certainly within his grasp given reasonable barrier draws.

Biggest racing week of the year is approaching, we have our tails up here at present, so we expect plenty more winners to come over the Spring. We have received a few emails from prospective clients, however some have not placed correct contact details on these emails so we have not been able to reply. If you contact us, please include current operative email address or contact phone number so we can repsond speedily.

If you would like details please contact us here profselections@austarnet.com.au

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

Geelong Cup Day

2007-10-25T09:34:00.000+10:00

Spring time is the most exciting time of the year for punters and all those interested in horse racing. Yesterday we saw the running of the Geelong Cup which in some years has provided a good guide to a race held on the first Tuesday in November. There were many Melbourne Cup hopefuls attempting to win at Geelong to gain entry into the big one, however David Hayes and Craig Williams again proved they were too strong when The Fuzz won narrowly but convincingly in the 2400m event. The Anthony Cummings trained Zavite fought strongly in the straight, however found the winner a little too good in the final 100m. Both horses deserve a chance to line up in the Melbourne Cup, however Zavite will have to win the Hotham Handicap to ensure hinself a start.

Whilst on the Melbourne Cup, it never ceases to amaze me how arrogant some of the overseas trainers are regarding their charges who are imported for the Cup. Some only enter quarantine for the minimum amount of time required (2 weeks) with the horses arriving a fortnight prior to the running of the Cup. Do these trainers honestly belive their horses will acclimatise in two weeks? Do they honestly believe their horses will regain the weight lost on the flight to Australia in two weeks? And do they honestly believe they can recover their horses fitness to win a 3200m race in only two weeks? This is why most overseas horses fail miserably in the Melbourne Cup, beacuse they are not given enough time to get used to their new surrounding and recover sufficiently from the ordeal of the flight to Australia. All horses lose weight and condition on a long areoplane flight, and take anywhere up to a month to recover fully, depending on their fitness and resiliance.

The overseas horses who have succeeded in Australia are those given plenty of time to settle down, with most having had a run here before the big one. Both the Japanese horses who quinellad the Cup last year ran in the Caulfield Cup first. Media Puzzle who won the Cup in 2002 won the Geelong Cup prior to running on the first Tuesday in November. The only horses who won the Cup and did not run beforehand was Vintage Crop, however he was brought to Australia by Dermot Weld a month before race day and was given plenty of time to acclimatise.

So, when looking for an overseas horse for 2007 Melbourne Cup, look for one who has been prepared on Australian soil for the longest possible time, not one who arrogantly flew in on Tuesday barely two weeks before the big one.

PASS members have been treated to two specials already this week, both saluting the judge first. North Alert won easily at Mt Isa on Tuesday while Sound Journey won comfortable at Geelong yesterday filling our members pockets with plenty of cash. Sound Journey will win a nice 3yo race over the Flemington carnival, possibly the Carbine Club on Derby Day or even the Sandown Guineas. Another nice winner for PASS members yesterday was Moreton Bay, who will make a Cups horse this time next year.

PASS members have been told of a good thing at Mackay this afternoon. If you would like to become a member please contact us here at profselections@austarnet.com.au

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

Caulfield Cup Day

2007-10-21T11:13:00.000+10:00

What an absolutely dramatic day Caulfield Cup day turned out to be yesterday. Never before have we seen such happenings minutes prior to a major group 1 race, with the shortest priced favourite in recent times and the second favourite both being scratched at the barrier. You have to feel for the connections of both horses, especially Mark Kavanagh who trained the favourite Maldivian. Michael Rodd who rode Maldivian to the gates yesterday showed his disappointment after Maldivian struck his head on the side of the starting gates, blood streaming down the neck of the equine, by slamming his cap and whip to the turf. Michael knew his Caulfield Cup dream was over for another year.

Maldivian has been a barrier rogue from day 1 and not even a two week holiday to a special barrier educator could assist him prior to his first race start. He refused to go into the barrier on that day at Flemington and was a late scratching at the barrier. However patience and persistence worked well for trainer Mark Kavanagh and his behaviour has been exemplary ever since. Nevertheless, yesterday all his bad habits came back to haunt him with Maldivian tragically paying the ultimate price, scratching at the barriers as a 6/4 favourite for the Caulfield Cup. One must feel for Mark Kavanagh who is genuinely one of the nice blokes of racing and deserves every success that comes his way. Mark did not deserve what happened to Maldivian yesterday, hopefully his luck will improve this week as he prepares Divine Madonna and Devil Moon for the W S Cox Plate. Good luck, Mark.

Tragedy for Maldivian turned into the ultimate triumph for Master O'Reilly and his connections. The Zabeel 5yo gelding had been trained to perfection by Danny O'Brien set for this race and the Melbourne Cup for over 12 months now and by way of a magnificent ride by Vlad Duric he finished far too strongly for his rivals. Nothing that ran around at Caulfield yesterday will beat Master O'Reilly on the first Tuesday in November. Would Maldivian have been able to beat Master O'Reilly? The answer to that question we will never know, however given the dominance of the victory, it would be hard to imagine Maldivian could have staved off such a devastating finishing burst.

PASS members were told 12 months ago that Master O'Reilly would win a Group 1 race. We have been on Master O'Reilly at every one of his 5 starts this preparation providing 3 victories culminating in the Caulfield Cup yesterday. A real shame the late scratchings affected the winning dividends so severely as the $12 would have been very sweet indeed. Nevertheless, the $5.60 was acceptable, far better available for those who took fixed odds during the lead up to the race.

There has been some irate punters who lost their money on both Eskimo Queen and Maldivian due to their scratchings at the barrier yesterday, after they took fixed odds before the final field and barrier draw was announced. The rules state that any bet placed prior to the final field being announced is declared an "all-in" bet and there are no refunds for scratchings. So you lose your money if the horse does not start. Only bets placed after the final field declarations are applicable to refunds. Those who place all-in bets, as early as 3 months ago, know full well they do not get a refund if their horse does not start in the race, so they bet with their eyes wide open, and generally obtain better odds as a consequence. In our opinion anyone who takes on these types of bets deserve to lose. How can anyone possibly believe they can predict who will win a race 2,3 or 4 months in advance? How can they predict if their horse will even start in the race? They do not even know who is in the field, what horses they are up against, what barriers each horse has drawn, and have no idea on ambient weather and track conditions on the day. Placing any all-in bet is fraught with danger and is not a recommended form of punting. In fact it is really not punting, it is a gamble of the highest extreme, akin to sticking a pin into the form guide with a blind fold on to select a winner. The best of luck to all of those who risk hard earned money on these types of bets, they are on a hiding to nothing.

Another great week for members here at PASS. Not only was Master O'Reilly selected exclusively yesterday, we snagged the quinella & trifecta in 5 selections. 4 out of our last 5 specials have saluted so we are certainly in form at the right time of the year.

If you would like to keep informed of all the happenings at PASS please contact us profselections@austarnet.com.au

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

Caulfield Guineas Day

2007-10-15T14:18:00.000+10:00

What a terrific days racing at Caulfield on Saturday. Despite the non appearance of most NSW and Queensland horses all races were very competitive and it hard to see any northern horse making too much difference to any of the results. The track played perfectly, every horse appeared to have their chance with little or no bias to inside or outside which is exactly what every punters wants on big race days.

PASS members were treated to a day out with 3 winners from only 4 selections on Saturday. Our horse to follow and Bet Of the Day was Master O'Reilly who earnt himself a start in the Caulfield Cup by winning the Herbert Power Handicap over 2400m. His win was a good solid effort with impressive previous weeks Flemington winner Dolphin Jo left floundering in the Master's wake. Master O'Reilly opened at around the $2.30 mark however was heavily supported to start odds on at $1.90. He's in the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups with a very light weight and at the $11 currently on offer with fixed odds bookies, is great each way value for this Saturday's Caulfield Cup.

PASS members were told in our email on Saturday morning that Weekend Hustler was a living certainty and only bad luck would beat him. Maybe this was an easily predictable result however bookies bet black figure odds on Saturday afternoon and that indeed was a luxury for any race track certainty. We averaged better than $2 for him which is an amazing price considering he was $1.70 with fixed odds bookies for most of the week. Hopefully they put him away now and bring him back after a maturing spell and set him for the Australian Guineas in March.

The best selection for our members came without doubt in the Caulfield Stakes. We wrote in our email that Miss Finland was the "lay of the year" after her ordinary performance in the Underwood Stakes two weeks earlier. She plodded to the line yet again on Saturday and she cannot win the Cox Plate on that effort. It was a far better Melbourne Cup trial than one for the Cox Plate, however it is difficult to imagine she will have enough "miles" in her legs to be a serious contender on the first Tuesday in November. Our third special was nominated in this race and Maldivian didn't let our followers down. He showed he didn't have to lead, sitting outside Rubiscent before careering away at the top of the straight to a commanding lead. Jockey Michael Rodd eased him down close to the post as he was holding his rivals, leaving a little bit in reserve for this Saturday's Caulfield Cup. Dropping 7.5kg, he is a serious Cup contender and will be very hard to beat. The $3.20 on offer at present looks luxurious considering his form, and only a bad barrier will beat him on Saturday.

Our 4th and final selection finished a narrow second at the final Belmont meeting for their season. However, despite protesting against the winner, El Presidente had to settle for the runners up tag. He will atone for this defeat next time he starts as that was only his second run back from a spell and he will strip much fitter for the run. He had difficulty getting clear at the top of the straight, hampered by the eventual winner, before finally getting clear and striding to the front. The tough run told in the final 50 metres and Glory Hunter nailed him right on the line. Follow, El Presidente, he'll win plenty over the summer months at Ascot.

So 3 winners from 4 selections with a close second, with PASS also providing the winners of the first 3 legs of the Melbourne quadrella on Saturday. One lucky member snagged that quaddie multiple times thanks to the PASS selections.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

profselections@austarnet.com.au

Consequences of EI To The Punter

2007-10-09T11:08:00.000+10:00

As authorities headed by the DPI in all states endeavour to control the spread of EI within their designated zones, while trainers and jockeys in NSW and Queensland wonder when and where their horses will next race, while breeders despair over whether their broodmares will be served by stallions, we punters have been left lamenting as the forgotten misfits in the entire crisis.

Let's have a closer look, state by state of what punters are being dished up on daily basis compared to what we should have had if EI had not infected the country.

Firstly in Queensland, there has basically been no racing in SE Qld of any consequence since 24 August. There were a few closed meetings, however due to the break between races for most horses, it was difficult for punters to line up which horses were or weren't fit, and which horses had coped with the training retsrictions the best. So even in these meetings, punting was fraught with danger, and we certainly were not using them as potential betting meetings. Now, with no racing whatsoever in SE Qld, we see the focus move north to Rockhampton who are racing most Saturdays now, along with Townsville and Mackay. The form as these will meetings usually stack up, ansd the meetings at these venues in recent weeks are proving reasonable betting propositions as they always do. The meeting at Cairns yesterday, and for that matter future TAB meetings at Cairns will also fall into similar categpry with the other north coast tracks in Queensland. However, last Thursday the TAB allowed betting for the first time to our knowledge on a meeting at Charleville. On Thursday of this week, a TAB meeting will be conducted at the old mining town of Mount Isa. Now, I've been to a race meeting at the Mount and what a great day it was. Great for socialising and meeting the locals, having a cool ale or three, but not great for putning. Run on brown dirt, the races were very biased toward leaders with some horses carrying massive weights, a real horses for courses track. At Charleville last week, large, evenly matched fields abounded, so along with the dirt surface punters faced a herculian task to finish in front of the leger. I know a few punters who, starved of a punt on Queensland races, had bets at Charleville just for the sake of it, despite not knowing any of the horses, most of the jockeys, nor knowing the form or how the track might play. Good luck to QR for putting on these TAB meeting in an endeavour to salvage lost turnover, however, most are truely not punting propositions, and punters must take extreme care if they decide to outlay their cash on these meetings. Stick to Rocky, Mackay, Townsville and Cairns where we know the horses, know how the tracks play, and which form lines will stand up.

The "closed" NSW TAB meetings that have appeared since the outbreak of EI are even worse for punters. Mainly because most horses racing have not raced for several months, giving the punter little hope of knowing if each individual horse is fit enough to win their race. Not only that, the fields are massive, giving horses drawn out wide virtually no chance of figuring in the finish. Then last Friday, punters were given a meeting at Canberra, the first for two years on their course proper. Now, because of EI, and horse movement restrictions, most of the horses at Canberra had been racing on the Acton (inside) track at Canberra. On Friday, we saw form reversals galore as horses who were handling the Acton surface, found the grass too difficult for them, and conversely plenty of horses who struggled on the Acton, found a new lease of life back on grass. What a conundrum for punters !! Winning on the punt anywhere in NSW will be a nearly impossible task for the punter until racing resumes a normal schedule, we certainly will not be punting on any NSW race until at February, possibly longer.

One may wonder how the EI crisis could affect Victorian racing. They have totally ignored NSW and Qld to continue on regardless as close to their normal schedule as possible. However, we have noticed a few things occurring out of the norm. Firstly, over the early wekks of EI, say 25 August to mid September, there were a lot of meetings abandoned. For example instead of having 2 or 3 meetings on a Saturday or Sunday, only one was held. Now this meant plenty of horses were missing runs, and in the early days plenty of horses missed some work as well. This caused a lot of upset results, and still is. The fitter horses, those who didn't miss work, and continued to race are now much fitter than those who did not race. Now also consider the fact that NSW horses from Albury, Wagga etc are unable to travel across the border to race in Victoria as they normally would, as was the case with South Australian horses earlier in the crisis. What this has done, is encourage the trainers with larger stables to travel further around Victoria to try to win a race with their horses. So we see trainers like Lee Freedman, Colin Alderson, Peter Moody etc turning up at obscure meetings. Now their horse may win, they may not, but this throws form out the window not only for these races, but their next couple of starts. I have noticed a couple of Freedman horses win in the bush lately, he then puts them straight into a city race and they fail miserably, usually well in the market too. Punters see Freedman with a last start maiden winner for example racing at Sandown, and thinks Freedman must have an opinion of the horse bringing him straight to town after an easy kill in the bush. These types of horses are not going on with the job when facing tougher assignments as would normally be expected. And the massive form reversals and upsets during the Spring carnival so far have been glaring. Whether this has anything to do with EI, the fact no Qld or NSW horses are in Victoria for the carnival, whether some horses have taken longer to get fitter, it is hard to say, however never before has their been so many upset reults in the major races as we have seen so far this Spring. And this will continue.

The impact in other states, it must be said has been negligible. However another issue that has caused issues for punters is the introduction of Ratings Based races in SA, WA and Tasmania. These races continually turn up unusual results, as they have done in Victoria and NSW for the past 12 months. Treat these races as if they are a class race, using the most number of wins by a horse in the race as the real class. For example, in an RB72 races, of the 12 starters, the top weight has the most number of previous wins at 5, treat the race as a "pseudo" Class 5 race. So a horse who won a miaden at it's last start, racing against Class 5 or Class 4 horses, will usually struggle to win, despite any favours in the weights. And remember, the weights are decided on the horses rating, not decided on what class of horse he really is. A horse in this RB72 race might be a Class 1 horses, however has a rating of 70, therefore will still carry close to top weight, usually at least 57kg. And we would not want to be backing a Class 1 horse against Class 5 horses with almost top weight. Use 1.5 kg for each class a horse is below the horse with the most number of wins. Now this might seem like an exhorbitant amount, however it will save you backing horses unless they are most favourably weighted. So if a Class 5 horse is against a Class 1 horse, you should only back the class 1 horse if he gets at least 6kg from the Class 5 horse, and this will rarely happen. Of course, sometimes the Class 1 horse will win because he is an up and comer at his peak whereas the Class 5 horse is older and leg weary, however in the long term you will go broke backing a class 1 horse against horses who are of higher grade. Mares get a distinct advantage in these races too, usually a 2.5kg advantage which is equal to around 1.7 lengths. That is quite a lot considering they are rated on the same level, yet receive such a huge weight advantage.

We averaged almost 65 bets per month last racing season, showing an overall profit of just over 2% on turnover. In August we had only 30 bets, in September only 43, and look like having around the 40 mark for October well down on last years average. We are slightly in the positive for the year so far, after losing in August and making it up since then. However, having fewer bets due to EI and the RB races will in the long term affect our overall profits.

Not much we can do other than to be ultra patient and wait for the good things to come along. Come along they still do, however not as frequently as we are used to. Punters should be betting on meetings where there has been little or no disruption to racing. Races in WA, SA, North Eastern Queensland are certainly still good profitable betting propositions. Meetings in NSW, Western Queensland are certainly not betting propositions. Meetings in Victoria should be attacked with extreme caution at present, especially where the fields are inordinately large, try to stick to races which have smaller fields and there are only a couple of realistic chances in the race. And beware of RB races in all states, analyse the form and weights very carefully before deciding to bet on them.

PASS members are showing nice profits this racing year, with profit levels over 33% overall so far from only 25 selections. Our horses to follow are flying too with recent Group winners like Bon Hoffa and Master O'Reilly. So if you would like to be part of the action here at PASS, please contact us profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will show you how to become involved.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

Weekend Winners

2007-09-09T16:28:00.000+10:00

What a weekend for members of PASS this weekend. In total seven horses were mentioned in our emails to clients, all provided collects for our members with 6 winning and the other running the quinella as we predicted.

On Saturday our special for the day was Marasco who was finally in the right race for him to win. Amazingly he got out to $2.80 with fixed odds bookies which we eagerly snapped up, although the best tote was only $2.30. Our other good thing at Belmont also saluted in Special Reserve however her odds were far more prohibitve paying $1.60 top tote.

Our two horses to follow both raced at Flemington on Saturday, both put up outstanding performances and both won at good odds. Bon Hoffa missed the kick in the Bobby Lewis Group 3 Handicap, however had the field covered at the distance and won comfortably. The 5yo colt payed extremely well on all totes seeing us averaging $4.83 for the win. Master O'Reilly put up an incredible effort to win the last race at Flemington. He came from last, giving the leaders 20 lengths at the half way mark, was pushed 10 deep on the turn then defied the leader bias on the day to storm home down the outside to win by over 3 lengths at the finish. We averaged better than $3.80 on our win bets to top of an excellent day of punting. Both these horses will win Group 1 races during the spring and should be followed.

On Sunday, we shifted out eyes to the time honoured Mindarie Halidon Cup in South Australia. PASS members had a fantastic win on a horse named Space Needle a few weeks back when he won at Gawler paying well over $15 for the win. He didn't let us down in the Cup either and he stormed home to get up in the last bound to win paying $3.70 on most totes around the country.

Finally in our email on Sunday we discussed the 3yo 1400m Showcase race run at Bendigo. PASS members were told the best chance in the race was Viatorian who won and paid $8.60 for the win top tote. Members were also told only one horse, Dane The Rave, had any chance of beating him and were encouraged to quinella the two horses. Well history tells us Dane the Rave ran second to indeed quinella the race with most totes paying almost $10 for that exotic.

So a magnificent punting weekend for all our members and with the big Spring carnival races on the horizon there are plenty more winners coming up in the near future. We are currently running at a profit level of over 45% with our first selections, this does not include out Stable Horses and our exotic suggestions.

So if you would like to join the winners here at PASS, contact us at profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will give you the opportunity to back more winners.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

Various Items

2007-09-05T09:45:00.000+10:00

EI UPDATE

Firstly what terrific news that both the inflated temperatures in Tasmania and at Brett Cavanagh's stable in Albury tested negative to EI. This means containment is working to a point.

However, let's get a few things into perspective. The EI virus may be spread in various ways, through horses coming into contact with each other, by human's carrying it on their person or clothing, via horse transport vehicles or even through the atmosphere over short distances say no further than 5km. It must be said that the EI virus cannot jump Bass Straight, after of course hurdling the entire state of Victoria, to miraculously infect horses in the Apple Isle. The Ei virus also cannot fly through the air for over 300km to arrive at a thoroughbred horse stable in Albury, when the closest known outbreak of the disease was in Nowra. We understand every precaution must be taken, and all these horses with raised temperatures must be tested just to make sure, however EI infiltrating Tasmania is farcical to say the least. Not to mention the incubatiuon period is 5 days, so if your horse is EI free for 5 days, and has not come into contact with anything or anyone who is carryong the virus, then that horse cannot catch the virus. We wish this type of hysteria would follow on to precautions that should be being taken each and every minute of every day by anyone in contact with equines. So please feelf ree to be hysterical in taking every precaution to stop the spread of the virus.

We urge everyone who has contact with horses, especially thoroughbreds to take all precautions to stop the spread of the virus. We control our own destiny to a point in all of this. The virus will only spread with human assistance, and this includes keeping all horses away from others that may either carry or spread the virus. We can stop the spread, do you best to assist.

PUNTING

Been a very lean trot for us here at PASS in the past few weeks. We are on a six straight losing streak and our selections have not even been getting close lately. However this is all part and parcel of the punting caper and we have to be patient. After starting August sensationally, the middle part was woeful and we will be working hard to improve.

Form lines since the outbreak of EI may take a while to really settle down. Plenty of horses have missed work, some missing a full week and it will take some time for those horses to catch up. What we saw at Caulfield on Saturday was the majority of winners came from trainers who have their own private training tracks where their horses had not missed vital work. David Hayes with Miss Finland, Lee Freedman with Royal Ascher, even the $70 chance Shadow is trained privately and had not missed a days work. Be very careful in weeks to come, that horses like El Segundo and Haradasun don't improve dramatically on their performances on Saturday and turn the tables on the likes of Miss Finland. Please, we are not knocking Miss Finland, only saying she may have had a distinct advantage on Saturday in the Memsie Stakes.

Punters must also be careful once racing resumes in both Queensland and NSW. The meeting today at the Gold Coast is a typical example, with huge fields, evenly matched fields with punters having little or no idea which horses have coped with stable life and lack of work over the past 2 weeks. Put that together with plenty of horses drawing badly due to big fields, a bit of rain around, and it could be a disaster for the punter. The Sunshine Coast will be similar tomorrow although the fields are certainly not as large although the track will be rain affected.

So punters must bet with extreme caution over the next few weeks until form lines settle down and horses regain full fitness.

If you would like to receive our emails and text messages with our selections, please contact us here at PASS on profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will make them available to you.

Good luck and profitable punting to all and please, if you are in regualr contact with equines, then please take very advisable precaution to stop the spread of EI.

EI Update

2007-09-04T08:10:00.000+10:00

With over half the equine population of Royal Randwick infected with EI, over 300 individual properties in NSW affected and reports this morning a thoroughbred mare and foal in the upper Hunter Valley have been diagnosed with EI, it still appears some people are nor aware how dangerous this virus is.

Horse movement in NSW and Qld is banned and will be until no new cases have been diagnosed for a 5 day period. EI is spreading so rapidly it is only a matter of time before either you or someone you know are affected by EI. It is amazing how some people think that it won't happen to them so they don't need to take precautions.

We receive some excellent emails from authorities on this issue and although we generally prefer not to cut and paste articles, because this issue is so severe, we will today. THese make extremely interesting reading for everyone in the industry.

Firstly from BioSecurity in Queensland:-

Prevent the spread
There are things you can do right now to help prevent spread to your property. Check the DPI&F website for more tips, but the most important things are:
Abide by the standstill. Remember, it is illegal to move any horses from your property until notified;
Keep you horses at least 50 metres away from other horses;
Don't handle other people's horses;
Don't share equipment.
More tips for protecting your property
Using your horse float/truck
Vehicles used for transporting horses such as horse floats and trucks are not under the standstill order. However, the following applies:
If your vehicle (float/truck) has been used for moving horses, it will need to be cleaned and disinfected before using again.
If your vehicle (float/truck) is on a quarantined property, you can not move it unless it has been cleaned and disinfected under supervision by Biosecurity Queensland.
If your vehicle (float/truck) has never been used to transport horses (I.e. it's brand new) there is no requirement to clean and disinfect it prior to use.
How to disinfect your vehicle:
Clean thoroughly to remove all dirt, faecal matter and organic material.
Disinfect cleaned surfaces with soap or detergent or disinfectant (not a mixture).
More about decontamination
Standstill remains
The standstill relates to ALL horses and applies to ALL recreational and commercial horse owners. It is still in place in Queensland.
Even if you have a number of properties listed under the one PIC, horses can't move from the boundaries of the property they are on, and must not cross any road.
Check you know everything about the standstill
Manure and other horse products
Under the standstill horse manure and waste bedding cannot be moved off a property but you can use it on your own property for gardening providing it is not going to come in contact with horses.
It must not be moved on or off properties under the Standstill order. Therefore it cannot be sold on the side of the road. Any bags on the side of the road should be removed from sale and moved back into the property they are on.
Commercial exemptions exist. Check the DPI&F website.
The disposal of manure on quarantined properties will be managed under supervision of Biosecurity Queensland Officers.
The virus can be spread by moving animal matter including semen and other horse products. The standstill also relates to horse products.
More about manure and other horse products
Horse services
Horse services such as dentistry, farriery, chiropractic and non-essential vetinary services should only be conducted in emergency situations. This will help minimise the spread of Equine Influenza.
Water restrictions and Equine Influenza
Queenslanders are reminded restrictions do not apply to reasonable actions taken to prevent material risks associated with a hazard to health such as Equine Influenza.
Horses from NSW
Anyone with information about horses bought to Queensland from NSW since 08 August needs to contact DPI&F on 13 25 23.
This is particularly important if horses left NSW between 14 August and 26 August.
Biosecurity Queensland has already undertaken an extensive tracing program but is now double checking to see if any animals have been missed.
Thank-you for reporting suspicious symptoms
Biosecurity Queensland is busy undertaking trace backs and following up reports of horses with suspicious symptoms.
Thank-you to everyone for your vigilance in reporting these suspected cases. Remember, Equine Influenza is a Notifiable Disease in Queensland.
Share this important information

Secondly from the Horse Industry Council:-

Equine Influenza – where to from here?
It is 10 days since we knew that flu was in the general population, how are we doing?
We have 300 properties in NSW expected to get EI in the near future - not bad considering there were 250 horses at the first event where EI was spread and before the lockdown occurred. Most of these cases are in areas where there is a high density of horses and properties are small. We are expecting and identifying spread from property to property over fences and by airborne movement because the disease is highly infectious. It may be that all horses become infected in high density areas. This will impose a huge workload on the NSW Control Centres - they are under pressure but responding well.
The disease will burn itself out if movements are controlled. The disease came in at the worst possible time. Spread is best under winter conditions. There will be less property to property spread in summer due to temperature and UV effects.
There are calls to let the disease run. All horse owners need to resist this and to support the State DPI’s to continue the control effort. We are not in a similar position to overseas countries.
We have no pool of vaccinated horses - all ours are naive and highly susceptible. If we let it go now we will have deaths of 10 - 40% of young foals - there are thousands out there at this time. It will not be just the TB's - all will get it. There will not be 300 infected properties, there will be more like 30,000.
NSW and Queensland are suffering now. If flu gets away and there is no stand still, it will be in Melbourne this week and we can kiss the spring carnival and Melbourne Cup goodbye. All horse events will be cancelled nationally. If the positions were reversed, would NSW horse people want the Victorians to do that to us?
Some people are saying vaccinate. With what? It will be weeks before we can get supplies of the right vaccine. Vaccination is far from 100% - otherwise EI would not have got here in the first place. If we vaccinate we will still be subject to a standstill until all horses are vaccinated and become immune. Do you think governments are going to pay for the vaccination of all horses every 6 months? Who is going to pay for that?
Those that have been overseas know that living with flu means issuing horses with passports at a cost of at least $200 each and then vaccinating every 6 months. The vaccine costs about $30 plus vet costs. Then at every event you have to show paperwork proving current vaccination status. People running events will have to find extra people to check the paperwork. Vaccination might not prove a huge disadvantage to wealthy TB breeders or owners but it will have a huge effect on the battlers. It will change horse ownership as we know it in Australia.
Authorities are amazed at the level of support shown by horse owners. This needs to continue at 100%. A small vocal group complaining about something could quickly evaporate the support shown by the state governments. The Feds are ducking for cover. The truth will come out but probably after the election. Keep the faith.
If you are not a member, please join the AHIC. Membership has not been a prerequisite for registering on the Horse Emergency Contact Database but we need more support to cover our costs. Emails are free but running the website costs real dollars. If we send out an emergency SMS to 5000 people it will cost $1250 of our limited funds. We will need over 60 new individual members just to pay for that.
Many thanks.

Please, this is critical information everyone with horses should understand and follow. Pass it onto everyone you know with horses. The sooner we stop the spread, the sooner we cna go back to life as we used to know it.

EQUINE INFLUENZA

2007-08-29T09:30:00.000+10:00

The current situation in Australia in regards to EI is the most catastrophic occurrence ever to inflict our shores. The impact on the thoroughbred racing industry is an absolute disaster, despite the fact no equine thoroughbreds have been infected by the virus. Costs arising from will be far reaching and cover years, not just days, weeks and months.

Firstly let me say, that the Government must conduct a full enquiry as to how the virus arrived in Australia, and how it was spread. And they must then put into place procedures to ensure this never happens again.

Forgetting betting turnover, think about how many people and their incomes this is affecting. There has been no horse racing since last Friday, with NSW & Queensland racing suspended indefinately, no track work until this morning, no movement of any horses anywhere in Australia since Saturday. So let's list a few of the people affected whose incomes have been diminished.

Racehorse trainers & jockeys
Trackwork riders, stablehands & strappers
Equine Transport Companies
Farriers, Dentists and Veterinarians
Breeding Studs Farms, Horse Breakers & Agistment Properties
TAB Agencies
Bookmakers
Profesional Punters
Catering Companies that operate on race courses
Casual Staff that work at race courses on race days
Bloodstock Agents

All these people and their employees are badly affected, but there are further ramifications along the line. Owners are paying ut money for their horses to be in stables even though very few can be worked or raced. Due to the lack of racing advertising revenue for race clubs and sponsorship will not be received. Any advertising clubs to in the media has stopped causing reduced incomes for newspapers, television and radio, especially hard hit in regional areas. Flow on affects from all these issues result in reduced expenditure by race clubs on things such as extensions, track upgrades etc.

In fact, leaving TAB turnover alone for the moment, I doubt if the real cost or affect will ever be known as the flow on from reduction of income this week and in the upcoming weeks could never be accurately measured.

Personally, our income has all but ceased. We currently have 3 horses "Sold", however as they cannot be moved (all are in NSW or Qld) the sales will not go ahead at this stage. And very few if any person wants to purchase a horse unless they are fully guaranteed the horse does not have EI. So no bloodstock sales are happening at present.

Massie Lodge is locked down at present, a personal decision made by Helen and myself merely as a precaution. We have several clients wanting to send horses here for a spell, however with no transport allowed to move horses, we are unable to receive the clients horses. We have plenty of room here to accept new residents, however we cannot accept any.

And finally punting as we know it has ceased indefinately. Not only is there no thoroughbreds races to bet on, when racing finally does recommence, extreme caution will be required before any consideration is given to outlaying money on thoroughbreds. So many horses have missed vital work, not raced for longer periods than normal we will not risk betting on horses we are not confident are fit enough to win.

And finally we must give Go Maz a mention. The poor bloke is jumping out of his skin and ready to race. His career has been agonizingly halted for yet another reason. One would think cheating death on 3 occasions, dodging the dogger, then when he is finally ready to go, he firstly encounters an abandoned meeting due to rain, now and EI epidemic never heard of before in Australia. What will happen to the poor little fella next? He will be nominated for a 1200m maiden at grafton on 5 Septmeber, so let's hope racing in NSW resumes in time for him to take his palce in the field.

We urge everyone to adhere to all rules and regualtions instigated by State Governments and the DPI. Please do not move any horse of any breed anywhere until clearance is given by the DPI. Take extreme precautions to protect yourself and your horses if you handle equines on a regular basis. Do not allow this virus to spread any further.

This is the biggest catastrophe to ever occur in our industry, please take every possible measure to contain it now.

Maz Update

2007-08-24T09:46:00.000+10:00

Unfortunately, Lismore races were abandoned on Monday, so we have to sit and wait patiently for another chance for Maz to get to the races. This opportunity should arive on Tuesday at Grafton, as long as the rain eases off in the area. Maz has been accepted for a 1200m Maiden at Grafton, so we will head down there to cheer him home. He has drawn poorly in barrier 15, however the run will be over of great benefit and experience for him.

Go Maz !!!

GO MAZ

2007-08-20T05:32:00.000+10:00

Go Maz is due to have his first race start today at Lismore. Go Maz !!

GO MAZ – The Community’s Racehorse

Although yet to race the story surrounding Go Maz is already quite remarkable. He cheated death at least 3 times, dodged the knackery at the last minute and now due to the community support of an internet forum finds himself heading to the race track.

Go Maz is the son of a most uncommercial Gatsby x Belle Hareb mating, originally owned and managed by a passionate internet forum member, let's call him, “Fasteddy”. “Maz” as he has affectionately been known to his internet family and friends for the last 6 years (since inception) lost his mum just weeks following his birth. He struggled through the next 6 months on life’s edge, with life turning for the up when moved to boutique property Massie Lodge near Warwick in South East Qld. Dedication, love and care from Fasteddy and the property owners Helen and Evan Robinson saw Maz slowly put on weight and grow, and at 18 months he had matured into a healthy young colt about to embark on a potential racing career. Maz moved on to the breakers and a property north of Brisbane in preparation for racetrack dreams.

However tragedy again struck when on a stormy summers night with thunder and lightening threatening he took fright and unwittingly charged into a paddock boundary fence. His injuries were so severe he was forced to spend 4 weeks in an equine veterinary hospital to assist with his recovery, tended constantly by “Fasteddy’s” devotion. Maz then suffered an almost fatal dose of the scours, with serious consideration at one stage given to him being put down, however Fasteddy would have none of this. With Fasteddy's care and his own will and determination, amazingly the brown colt survived, finally returning to his paddock.

By this stage the heavy burden of vet, equine hospital and mounting agistment costs were taking their toll on Fasteddy who reluctantly was forced by debtors to list Maz in a monthly tried horse sale on the Gold Coast. After flirting with death on no less than three previous occasion once again Maz’s future looked very bleak, little alone any prospect of the racetrack.
Word spread as Eddy sadly advised his internet forum friends of the latest developments. “Maz” had long been a favourite friend and mascot to The New Horse Racing Community Forum (http://groups.msn.com/TheNewHorseRacingCommunityForum) as they had followed his path from mating onwards. Some had supported his syndicate from day one, while others had maintained regular interest and encouragement through his years of development. Helen and Evan Robinson, members of the forum and fond past carers of Maz decided to step in and purchase Maz at the sale, if for nothing else than to save him and allow him a happy life once again in a quite paddock at Massie Lodge. Community interest and support quickly grew amongst the internet forum members who now wanted to support the 4yr old and any possible chance of he at last venturing to the race track. And so the Maz Syndicate was formed, with many members far and wide (all parts of Australia, Japan and Asia) now banding together behind the community mascot generously donating funds to support an initial racing campaign.
At last “Maz” looked likely of kicking up his heels on a racetrack. Win, lose or draw it didn’t matter, all that everyone wanted now was for Maz to be given the opportunity to make it to the races. He was sent to trainer Phil Quinnell at Ballina on the NSW Nth Coast to assess and commence work. In lieu of his public support and following Maz he and his syndicate was formally registered and the brown gelding named – “Go Maz”.

And now his first race day draws near. To the surprise of trainer and supporters (but not to “Fasteddy”) Go Maz stepped out to win his maiden trail recently at Lismore. After all the years of hardship Go Maz “the community horse” is now set to achieve his goal to race against his peers for the very first time. Results now are not important, the fact that Maz has achieved so much and brought together so many against all odds in the “sport of kings” is the real story.
GO MAZ!!!!

The New Horse Racing Community Forum

http://groups.msn.com/TheNewHorseRacingCommunityForum

The New Horse Racing Community Forum is a MSN forum that grew from the original Racenet forum. TNHRCF is independent, driven by its members expression, discussion and content which is why today it is one of the most active MSN forums with over 400 hits each day and hundres of members contributing each month. Punters, trainers, owners, jockeys, breeders, journalists are all active participants, even the stewards admit to having a look.
Of note, TNHRCF has driven the public voice behind many key industry issues across the last 6 years, including leading the Betfair debate, uncovered the "Dubaigate" Tab post race betting scandal and contributed to the naming of many macots for members including the classy mare "Forum Floozie".

A Trap For Young Players

2007-08-06T08:45:00.000+10:00

What a magnificent start to the new punting season for all our followers here at PASS.

Our first three selections of the season have all saluted, Queen And Country ($7.00) Father Dex ($1.90) and Kid's Show ($3.70) healthily lining all our pockets with plenty of cash. On Saturday, our members were also privileged with mail that Apache Cat was absolutely flying giving him a great chance to upset boom horse Haradasun in the Bletchingly Stakes. The cat won comfortably assisting one member to snag the Melbourne quaddie. Lots more winners coming , especially with the tracks becoming drier along with the better horses reurning for the Spring.

Now, there is a significant anomoly in form that occurs this time every year that most punters either do not know about or choose to ignore it. Most horses when they race as 2yos, restrict their racing to their own age group with most clubs scheduling at least one 2yo race per week. However, as from August 1, these horses are now 3yo, meaning fewer opportunities for races restricted to their own age group. What we find happening at this time of the year is simple. A 2yo wins a race restricted to his own age in late July, however after 1 August he is now considered a 3yo therefore having race against older, more mature and seasoned opponents. Most of these recently turned 3yos, are not really 3yo at all, those being born in October, November or Decenber, are not really 3yo until their original foaling dates arrives on the calendar.

These newly turned 3yos are at a huge disadvantage against 4, 5 and 6yos maturity and size wise thus will always have difficulty beating them in a race. There are always a few exceptions to every rule, and if Sunline reincarnated is running around as a newly turned 3yo filly, then she would defeat anything she runs against. However, there are not too many reincarnated Sunlines or Lonhro's around at this time.

So please be very careful when assessing form. recently turned 3yos are at a distinct disadvantage when racing against open age, more seasoned gallopers. If a horse won a 2yo restricted race late in July, then turns up against open aged horses at their next assignment, odds are they will come up very short in the market, meaning they are way under the odds.

There has been two clear examples of this happening in the past 5 days. A 3yo filly named Le Jeune Fille started a $2.50 favourite in an open fillies and mares Class 1 at Hawkesbury on Thursday. She was beaten into second place by our winning PASS selection, Queen And Country. Then, at Gunnedah on Friday in the last race, a restricted 2yo winner from July, was again sent out a short priced favourite when racing against the older horses for the first time, missing a place.

These form lines will continue for at least three months, possibly until the new year, so please be particularly adroit to avoid these runners. In fact, they are generally good risks as very few will beat the older horses.

If you would like to join the winning team here at PASS, then please send us an email profeselections@austarnet.com.au so we can inform you how to obtain our services.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

Results For The Racing Season

2007-08-02T21:01:00.000+10:00

July 31 brought about the end to yet another racing season along with the commecement of the new racing year.

We have had a most successful racing season showing profits of almost 20% on turnover across the board using a level stake. In total we have provided 73 winners from 162 selections at an average winning price of just over $2.65. After a full racing season, it is hard to imagine any other service providing consistent winners as we do every week here at PASS.

There have been several highlights, however our recent successes are one that should be noted. From our last 24 selections we have served up no less than 14 winners at an average winning price of over $2.62, so all our members finished off the racing year with full wallets.

Our most consistent winner this year was probably the Western Australian Beat The Storm, who we followed with great success culminating in a Group 3 victory at Belmont paying the juicy odds of $4.60 top tote. He won 4 times for us with the next closest being Not A Copy the handy Victorian provincial horse who saluted on three separate occasions earlier in the year. Our highest winning dividend went to Incentate who won the Hanging Rock Cup on Australia Day paying over $7 across the country.

So a most successful year was had by all members, and we can sincerely promise we will do far better in 2007-2008.

If you would like to become a part of all the winners, please contact us here at profselections@austarnet.com.au so we cna assist you in profiting from the punt.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

2007-07-08T09:02:00.000+10:00

It is nice when we get it right. Puts you in a great frame of mind and gives you confidence to continue on the way you are going. Of our last 18 selections we have come up with 13 winners at an average wining price of $2.62 giving all our members plenty of warm winter cheer on these cool days.

Our selections for this season now number 154 with 71 winners all up. At an average winning price of just over $2.65 this gives a profit at level stakes of 22.29%. Not too many other services can boast a winning record of this magnitude oversuch a lengthy period of time.

Our main selection yesterday was a horse named Scenic Rule who ran in the last race at the Gold Coast. He looked the winner of the race after winning over the same course and distance at his previous run and only went up one class and 0.5kg on that 4.5 length win. Most of his rivals yesterday were first up from a spell, the main danger we thought being Borsha's Warrior who we predicted would lead and be carved up by a few from outside gates. Now although this din't go perfectly to plan, Scenic Rule did get a beautiful run in behind the speed, was steered clear at the top of the straight and proved a little too strong at the finish. A horse named Costa Smerelda was sensationally backed from $8 into $4.60 on track. However Scenic Rule had had two runs back from a spell was fit and in form, whereas Costa Smerelda was having his first run after a break and was not fit enough and this showed in the final 50 metres of the race. Costa Smerelda got a stitch in that final 50 metres and Scenic Rule finished strongly being the fitter of the two to win narrowly.

This is an important factor when assessing a race. A fit strong in form horse will usually beat a horse who has more ability however is racing for the first time in a preparation. It doesn't matter how many weeks work, or how many barrier trials a horse has had to fit himself for a first up assignment, race fitness will always come out on top unless the horse in question has literally lengths on the opposition. So always be happy to risk horses first up from a spell if you like a fit and in form horse. Of course there are exceptions to this rule as for every rule. Sunline will always beat a group of WFA horses first up, because she was just better than them, as would Lonhro. However, there not many horses running around with the ability of a Lonhro or a Sunline.

There is one ritual we always perform prior to coming up with a final selection. We do our form study every afternoon or evening for the following days racing. This can take anywhere from an hour up to four hours depending on how many meetings we look at. However there is one special facet of form study that is an invaluable tool and certainly stops us from backing a lot of losers. And that is a meticulous review every morning after scratchings and track conditions. It is easy to make mistakes when you first look at a race and many things can be overlooked. So it is imperative we review every race again the next morning to proove our assessments are correct. And this review is conducted slowly and carefuly so every facet of each race is thoroughly covered.

A classic example of this occurred yesterday when on Friday night we wrote down the name of a horse in Race 7 at the Gold Coast. However on closer review yesterday morning it was revealed that this horse not only jumped 400m in distance, it also jumped 2.5kg in weight from its previous start. Not only that this horse was starting from the second outside barrier so it was an obvious no bet for us. In fact, after another review of the race we found that another horse in the race had the credentials to win. Now we are not sure how we came up with the original selection, there is a possibility we simply wrote down the name of the wrong horse, nevertheless, a concentrated review on race day morning corrected the mistake of the previous evening and not only stopped us from backing a loser, but found us a nice winner at $4.90.

Everyone makes mistakes, that is well known and mistakes are very easy to make, we are only human. However to correct these mistakes before you outlay your hard earned money is the important lesson here. Don't take things for granted, review every day and correct your mistakes and you will find more winners and less losers.

And when you are backing more winners and less losers you feel on top of the world, invincible. You are in a great mood and this shows to the people around you because you are happy. And the people around you are ahppy and enjoy your company far more.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

Beat The Storm

2007-06-17T16:30:00.000+10:00

PASS members have certainly found a way to beat the winter storms in recent weeks in Perth. And it would be most inappropriate if we didn't give this bloke some recognition after the picket fence he has now notched up next to his name.

PASS members have been on this 4yo gelding at his past three starts at Belmont in WA and he certainly hasn't let us down.

Last Saturday Beat The Storm put up an astonishing performance to win over the 1400m at Belmont. Given a beautiful run on the fence by Willie Pike, Beat The Storm came to the home turn full of running just needed a clear opening to give what he had left, which was plenty. However, as the field straightened for the run home, Beat The Storm was hopelessly pocketed and Pike was deparately looking for an gap to push him through. The gelding was climbing all over the heels of the horses in front of him and the inevitable happened. He clipped the heels of one in front of him, went down on his nose, and all but fell to the turf and dislodged Pike. Somehow, miraculaously, Pike kept his feet in the irons, steadied Beat The Storm, saw a gap appear on the inside and surled the gelding through the gap. Not only was Beat The Storm able to regain his footing, but he dashed through the narrow opening and ran away to win the race by 1.8 lengths. Am amazing effort just to stay on his feet, let alone finish in the placings, let alone win so easily. Only a horse with exceptional ability could do what Beat The Storm did last Saturday. It was obvious more wins were in store for him.

Yesterday, Beat The Storm lined up in a Group 3 race for the first time, the time honoured Belmont Sprint. He had some very good opposition including several Group and Listed winners and he needed to be good to even be competitive. However after his outstanding win the week before, PASS members were again told Beat The Storm was a good thing. For some reason unknown to us, Willie Pike jumped off Beat The Storm to ride Is Amazing, a 1200m sprinter at best in our opinion, albeit a previous Group winner. Is Amazing led as predicted, however Beat The Storm, given a lovely ride by Patrick Carberry, ran home strongly in the straight to prove far too good and win narrowly but convincingly. He started at $4.80, and both Centre Racing and Sportingbet paid those odds on their top tote dividend. Super TAB paid best tote in Australia at $4.60, great didvidends considering the horse had won it's last three starts, and four of his previous five starts. He has now won four straight, all over 1400m at Belmont and is the most improved horse in WA.

PASS members have now been given eight winners from the last ten selections provided, and all have big smiles on their faces and very large bank balances.

A definite horse to follow after yesterday's racing is Pure Harmony who ran third in the last race at Morphettville. Every winner at Morphettville had come down the middle of the track and the fence had been off all day. However Amy Hermann in her wisdom, who had a bolting Pure Harmony underneath her at the home turn, decided for reasons unknown to us to angle the mare to the fence to make her run. Preditably, horses down the middle over ran Pure Harmony in the straight, however she finished a creditable third. Given an even racing surface and a good barrier draw, Pure Harmony will go very close to winning at her next start.

If you would like to become part of the all the winners here at PASS, then please contact us profselections@austarnet.com.au and we can organise for you to receive emails every day we provide information.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

2007-06-15T09:27:00.000+10:00

A quick update on the fortunes of our service and profits being made by our members.

Following a very dry run during the early part of May when we endured a 7 bet losing streak, PASS members have now returned to the winners circle. The last 7 selections have all won, with 8 from the last 9 all saluting the judge first. This just shows that our philosophy of patience and discipline will always win out in the end, no matter how severe the losing streak may be. It is just a matter of reducing your bets and your betting amounts until fortunes sway back in your favour, which they well and truly have now. The average winning price over the last 8 winners has reduced significantly to $2.26. However this is usual for the time of year as rain affected tracks abound, as do long priced upset winners. These are diffcult to predict so here at PASS we just try to find the good things.

Overall, we have given out 146 selections since we commenced, of which 67 have won, at an average winning price of a little over $2.60. Profit at level stakes is running at 18.8%, however using a more effective staking plan these profits can be considerably improved on.

Punting during the winter months is fraught with danger as our previous article indicated. However we found another trap for punters who wanted to bet on the Sale meeting in Victoria yesterday. The track was given out in the morning as a dead (4), indicating to most that it would be an ideal racing surface. However, despite the fact that no more rain fell on the track, it was apparent following the first race the track was far worse than a dead (4). In fact the track was subsequently downgraded twice during the afternoon, without a drop of rain falling, to a slow (7). It was obvious to any track watcher that the track was slow during the first race, and punters were mislead badly. The poor punters who placed their bets early expecting a close to good track were bitterly disappointed as swoopers, and mud larks, most at long prices, saluted the judge first all day long. It is hard enough to find a winner normally, let alone during the winter months. However to endure a situation that prevailed at Sale yesterday is totally unacceptable in this day an age and punters in 2007 deserve far better.

The only way for a punter to police such occurrences is to watch the first few races of every meeting before having a bet, to justify in your own mind what the true track conditions are like. It is understandable this is not always an option for some punters, especially during the week. Hopefully this situation does not occur ever again.

There will be a few track downgrades again today as there is rain around most venues for this afternoon. Be very careful with Grafton as it is already rated a dead (5) but more rain currently falling and a track downgrade looks a certainty.

If you would like to become a member of PASS and ewnjoy all the winners provided, please contact us here at profselections@austarnet.com.au Several of our members do not have any other bets on horse racing other than the selections we provide. They feel this is the only way they can win punting on horse racing. And they are enjoying their punting far more because they are backing winners and showing an overall profit.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

Negotiating Winter, Successfully

2007-05-28T09:22:00.000+10:00

The last week of May has always been bookmarked in our minds. We usually receive our first frost of the year, and we usually put the fire on for the first time of the year. Cool, clear, crisp mornings, with cold nights tempered by the combustion heater. Fresh South Easterly winds prevailing throughout the days, and of course, little or no rain. Here at Massie Lodge we can negotiate the winter by rugging the horses, feeding extra, nightly use of the fire and simply putting on a jacket. The equine, canine and human population here are most resilient and understand by the end of May dealing with the cooler times is something we simpy have to cope with for the next 3-4 months. As the days become shorter & the nights become longer we adjust appropriately, deal with it and simply get on with the job.

However, as winter approaches, how many punters adjust their methods accordingly? Why would they need to? Horses run around race tracks every day, nothing really changes other than the venues and the names of the horses. All we need to do is find the best horse in the race, that is drawn well, with a good jockey and trainer, right. Just as we always do, and the winners will keep flowing.

Wrong !!

Winter throws up many more conundrums than most punters are aware of. And most serious & successful punters will drastically reduce the number of bets they have in the winter months to maintain profitability. If they don't, the massive form reversals will catch up to all the profits they made during the summer months and a profitable year will quickly diminish into a losing year which brings some powerful issues into play. Once a punter starts losing, it is inevitable they will try to catch up, get their money back, have more bets which will lead to even more losses. Basic punting rules will be thrown out the window in the hope of regaining that winning touch. All that eventually happens, is the punter simply loses more.

However, here at PASS, we and our followers are much too smart to fall into that old trap. We will remain, become even more disciplined throughout the winter months, and turn what is usually a losing period for most punters into a better than average profit period.

Firstly, let's discuss the issues for the punter during winter. The most obvious issue for tracks located near the coastal areas of Australia that receive plenty of rain is of course wet tracks. Some may think it is an easy task just to find the mud larks, and keep backing them, and the bank balance will overflow with riches. More seasoned punters know that is just not the case and there are plenty if pitfalls in betting on rain affected tracks.

Wet tracks come in various shapes and sizes. With the new track rating system, we class anything worse than a dead (4) as a wet track. If you would like to be more strict, feel free to call a dead (4) a rain affected track. However we find that dead (4) are usually pretty close to good, and are bettable propositions. Generally, our rule of thumb is to leave alone any track that is worse than a dead (4). Now during winter this will eliminate more than half the meetings which are run as betting propositions.

Now, why do we prefer not to bet on rain affected tracks. The answer is simple enough, which we will reply to in point form:-

* All tracks when rain affected are different to the other. A heavy track at Randwick is far different from a slow track at Rosehill. A slow track at Benalla is much different to a heavy track at Moonee Valley. And just because a horse handled the heavy at the Sunshine Coast, what data do we have to say it will handle a slow track at the Gold Coast? Very little, unless it has won on the slow at the Gold Coast in the past. All tracks, even those in close proximity to each other, are built on different bases, ie, diffeent soils, sand etc, so all will react differently when it rains. Some will absorb the moisture far better than others, a slow track at one venue, may even be far worse than a heavy at another venue. The only way the punter has to assess tracks, is by the rating given out on the day, adn these can be far from accurate. And what happens is, one horse will perform well at one venue, but not at another. This causes from reversals, and they are the most diffuclt thing to predict for the punter. Moonee Valley and Randwick Inner Track (Kensington) are both built on a Strath Ayr surface which is totally differetn again. Canberra race course during the winter uses an all weather Acton track, that some horses handle, others don't. Always remember, every rain affected track is different, and treat them as such. Some horses will handle some of them, some horses will handle none of them, a few horses will handle all of them.

* During the winter, horses are jumping from a good track, to a heavy track, back to a slow track. Some will not handle any sort of rain affected track. Others will handle up to slow, but when a track becomes a bog, they flounder. Other horses will only handle a bog, but cannot get through slow to good tracks. Every horse is different. Therefore horses will be far less predictable than when racing on consistently good surfaces.

* Tracks throw up a lot of bias when rain affected. Fast lanes quickly appear, either on the fence, down the centre of the track, or even up against the outside rail. How do punters know where these fast lanes are going to be before palcing their bets?

* Hoses can miss races due to being scratched, or even miss track work because the tracks are too wet. Punters are rarely given this sort of information. So this means some horses will not be fit enough to perform at their peak on race days. An issue that impacts even more on a rain affected track, as only fittest survive and win on heavy tracks.

* Tracks will chop up badly, and if several meetings are run on one particular track when rain affetced, this may affect the track long term. So when the track comes up good after several meetings where the track was rain affetced, because of all the divots and cuts out of it, it still races with extreme bias. An unwitting punter may just think, great, the track is good, let's have a bet, not knowing the track has not recovered from the rain and the use whilst in a rain affected condition.

So, what can the punter do to overcome all these issues? Again, we will answer in point form:-

* Don't bet on tracks rated worse than dead (4). For those that need to have a bet, there are plenty of TAB meetings in areas in Australia that don't get rain in the winter. Tracks like Rockhampton, Townsville & Mackay in Queensland, Kalgoorlie in WA usually come up good throughout the winter period. A track like Port Augusta in SA is dirt, and will usually race predictably. Look for tracks and areas that have had little or no rain, where tracks have been good on a regular basis.

* Horses for courses really comes to the fore during winter. If a horse handled the heavy over 1600m at Ballarat last start, the chances are excellent he will again handle the heavy over 1600m at Ballarat. If you have to bet on rain affected tracks, look for horses that have won at the track, in the existing conditions recently.

* Find horses that race consistenly no matter where or what kind of surface they have run on. If for example, a horse has won or placed in his last 3 starts, at different courses, over different distances, on different rated surfaces, then this horse is more likely to perform again in the future. This horse adapts well to prevailing conditions and is a bettable propostion.

* Find fit horses to bet on. Horses that have raced within the last 14-15 days, horses 2nd, 3rd or 4th up from a spell, especially if they have raced on a rain affected surface at their most recent outing. Only fit horses are able to plough through the mud to win, the horses first up who need the run will be struggling when going gets tough in the straight.

* Avoid horses who win by 3 lengths one start, then get beaten by 10 lengths the next or vice versa. How can a punter predict form revesals of this magnitude, whether the track be wet or dry. If there are several horses in one race with similar form lines to this, leave the race alone. There will be other races today or tomorrow for you to punt on.

* Avoid horses who have not placed on either heavy or slow tracks, especially if they have had more than 3 runs on rain affected tracks. Chances are, this horses simply does not handle the wet. And horses are of course creatures of habit, and will continue these habits throughout their lives.

* Avoid betting in maidens, or races with a lot of first starters. Punters have no idea who will or who won't handle wet tracks. Just because a horse is by Snippets, doesn't automatically mean he will swim. Snippets progeny only has a 16% winning strike rate on wet tracks, that means 84% of his progeny don't handle them.

* Watch early races at every meeting. Try to assess if there is track bias, and where it is. The assess if your horse is drawn in the best position to take advantage of the track bias. Leader biased tracks favour horses drawn well, whereas swooping tracks assist horses drawn wide who will get back and run on.

* Use www.racenet.com.au "Wet Track Sires" satistics. It is a great free service found on their web site. Read them, the stats will surprise you I am sure, as to who the best and worst are. For example, Octagonal's do not handle wet tracks, Langfhur's are swimmers.

If you enjoy trying to predict form reversals, then this is the time of year to open your wallets and let loose. You will get plenty of value if using this type of method, but be ready for long losing streaks as well.

However, if you are a disciplined punter, think carefully and punt warily during the winter months as there will be plenty of form reversals, plenty of unanswered questions and plenty of head shaking before the Spring. If you don't bet on rain affected tracks, your number of bets will reduce automatically, and that is the best start you can have. Don't attempt to predict form reversals, you will get them right occasionally, however you will require a few long priced winners to justify trying to predict these form reversals. Back consistent, in form horses and follow the above guidelines to give you a winning edge.

We trust this has assisted a few punters. If you would like to comment or give feedback, please contact us at profselections@austarnet.com.au

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

The Spruik Horse

2007-05-17T08:24:00.000+10:00

I don't listen to the radio these days. I don't read newspapers. I don't pay any attention to anything an owner, trainer, or jockey says in any interview. In fact, when I do turn on a radio or a television, and there are tipsters spruiking their selections, I immediately turn it off.

Now, there are several reasons why I don't read newspapers. Suffice to say they all have vested interests, and are looking for a story to sell more newspapers. So it is extremely rare we get an unbiased picture from any newspaper. Similar to radio, most if not all have vested interests, and we the listener are never made aware of who is paying the announcer to say what. Leave me out of all that, I'd rather make my own mind up about issues than be brainwashed by biased individuals.

Exactly the same thing in regards to punting. Why do people listen to tipsters? Do they ever, any of them, advertise their winning or losing strike rates to prove or disprove their worth as a tipster? Not on your life.

Why do people listen to race horse owners? They are the most biased person to ask about anything. they pay the bills, they think their horse is a champion, whether it has won a maiden or not. And they have absolutely no idea realistically of how the horse is going.

Why do people listen to jockeys? I have no idea why, jockeys generally don't know how the horse is going, unless they ride it every day in track work. And most are unable to line up the form of their opponents. When jockeys are interviewed, most are there for self promotion, nothing else. Most can barely put 2-3 words together, let alone a sentence or 3. And most have been taught by their jockey managers all the right cliches to retort when asked a question.

Why do people listen to trainers? The trainer realistically is the only one who knows the real chances of the horse. However, there is no way he will get on television or radio and announce to the world that "so & so" is a moral today. it would crucify the price for the owners. Alternatively, he is also not going to announce to the world, "So & so" has no hope today, as it would irate the owners and he might lose their business. The only time he will say the horse has no hope, is if he is trying to get a better price for their owners.

A classic example yesterday was in the first race at Sandown. Running Riot , trained by Mick Price, had been heavily supported into $2.20 favourite. Price was interviewed on TVN before the race. He had another runner in the race as well, and Bruce Clarke asked Price to compare the two. Price's reply was there was no way Contessas Choice could possibly beat Running Riot. Well there you, mortgage the house, scrape up every bit of spare cash you have and just get on Running Riot. You would have lost the lot had you listened to Mick Price. As Contessas Choice beat Running Riot easily, although neither were good enough to win the race, as Miss Meercat saluted the judge before them all.

Now, please, I am not having a go at Mick Price. In fact, I believe he is one of the more astute trainers in Australia, and have no issue putting my hard earned on anything he trains. But please, Mick or anyone else, do not insult the public by making comments like that. Whether you believe it to be true or not. It is totally misleading. And this is one reason why I do not listen to any tipsters or interviews.

Why? Because it will affect my judgement and my decisions. The only person to listen to when making a decision on which horse to back is you. In that way, you can only blame yourself if you back a loser, and only congratulate yourself if you back a winner. And you cannot hurt or upset anyone else but yourself.

And now to the spruike horse. I can recall during my days in Sydney, listening to 2KY of a Saturday morning religiously. Now without naming names, every week, there would be a horse at the Sydney metro meeting that every man and their dog wanted to tip you. 4, 5 or 6 different tipsters, jockeys, trainers whoever all came on and spruiked the horse. Now this horse was probably a $4 chance prior to all this media attention, but when the bookies open their market, up it pops @ $1.50 !! So, then everyone thinks it is a god thing, well, it must be, it's odds on isn't it? And week after week, this so called "moral" gets rolled at long odds on. The punters do their cash, the bookies laugh, and TAB's rub their hands together because turnover on the race was up 5% on last year.

This scenario is another reason of course not to listen to tipsters on either radio or television. However the bigger issue here is that to back a horse like this one, you are taking way under the horses true odds. If the horse is a $4 chance, means he should win the race 25% of the time, however the punter is being asked to take $1.50, which indicates he should win 75% of the time. A rather large difference in odds there, don't you think?

So, now to the point of this discussion. Yesterday, at around 8:30am, we sent out emails and text messages to our clients. In this email, we indicated a horse at Sandown in R3, Guild, looked a pretty good thing. In early market it was around the $3.50, more than acceptable. IAS actually opened her up at $2.70, not quite as good, but again, acceptable odds for horse who ran a great second on a Saturday, after having to overcome a wide draw. Late morning, I flicked on TVN, and the first thing I saw was Brian Martin tipping Guild. Oh well, I thought, he goes okay, not too worried about that. I then flicked the television over to Sky, and here is Tony Brassell tipping Guild as a special!! Come on fellas, did you all get my email this morning? So I immediately turned the television back to TVN, where bugger me, here is another bloke (whose name escapes me) tipping Guild as a special !!! So, when the main bookies markets went up, I was less than surprised when it opened at $1.70 !!!

Now this then leads to another point. When I tip a horse, I back them. The last thing I want is for people to think I tip them something, then don't bother to have anything on it myself. Everything I tip, I can assure everyone, I back. However, yesterday was the closest I have come to not backing one that I tipped to my clients. There was no way Guild deserved to be odds on. Inf act, there were 3-4 other realistic chances in the race, and I really didn't want to take less than $2.50 about her.

Anyway, history tells us Guild led them up, capitulated meekly in the straight to run 3rd with an SP of $2.00. I understand Guild doesn't know what price she is, however, the other jockeys in the race do and will usually attempt to get the shortie beaten.

The moral of the story is, don't listen to anyone else, not tipsters, not trainers, not jockeys. And never, ever back the spruike horses, they will always come up well under their true odds, and not value at that. Some may win, however taking long odds on about every horse you back, will send you to bankruptcy court far quicker than a 1929 like depression could ever dream of doing.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

A Great Week

2007-04-21T20:39:00.000+10:00

It has been a terrific week on the punt here at PASS.

Our last 5 major selections have provided 3 winners, and on Thursday we nominated two others for special consideration and both won. So the winners just keep coming.

Overall, our winning strike rate on our number 1 selections is over 45%, with an average winning price of $2.69. This would give punters an overall profit on investment a level stakes of over 23%.

Today we informed our members of two good things. Neither let us down and both saluted the judge first. At Morphettville in the R B Mackay Stakes, we told our members in this mornings email that Here De Angels was a good thing. Here De Angels and Corey Brown led all the way and paid top tote of $3.10. And at Sandown our members were infored of the credentials of Orange County who also won easily. The Brian Mayfield Smith camp is in sparkling form at present and his horses are very hard to beat. Orange County paid $2.10 top tote to the delight of our followers.

Yesterday at Seymour, one of our horses to follow ran around in the 1600m open handicap. Our members were told yesterday morning that this horse would not only win, but would go on to win the city, and eventually win a group race. Visit Me didn't let us down and won like the good horse he is. Jockey Michael Guthrie had problems obtaining a clear run in the early part of the straight, however he was patient and when the run came, Visit Me did the rest and gave nothing else a chance. Visit Me should be followed for the rest of this campaign, and through next spring, as he will win more races.

On Thursday, we suggested both Regal Celeb and Air Raid looked better than their rivals in their races at Wyong. Both saluted the judge first. Regal Celeb deserves special mention as he lumped 58.5kg on a 53kg limit, came from barrier 7 of 8, and still won convincingly. He is certainly another horse to follow, adn the Brisbane winter carnival now beckons him.

So plenty of winners, plenty of happy punters, plenty of full wallets, and more importantly, plenty of horses to follow that will win next time out.

If you would like to receive our daily emails, please contact us profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will show you how to become a member.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

Distance Races - From The Punters Point Of view

2007-04-17T20:17:00.000+10:00

Distance races have been a bone of contention for us for some time now, and it probably time we spelt out traumors punters have when assessing a distance race, and who has a chance of winning.

Firstly, let's ask, what we consider to be a distance race. We feel any race whose distance is beyond 1600m should be considered a distance race. Some clutch at straws and claim that races from 1800m to 2400m are middle distance races, and those race beyond 2400m are staying races. And they may well be right, however how many races in a calendar year do we see over distances beyond 2400m? Other than the Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide & Perth Cups, the Duke of Norfolk Stakes, the only other 3200m races are hurdle or steeplechases. And the 2400m races other than the Derby's, can be counted on your fingers. Fact is, race clubs just don't schedule races over 2400m + any more. So for the sake of this post, we will call them all distance races, those that are set at 1800m and further.

So, why are we selecting this demographic of races to discuss. Two reasons, firstly as mentioned above, there are not many scheduled any more, and secondly and most importantly, they regularly bring up unusualy results. And the latter is why we are focusing on distance races. Not much we can influence with race scheduling, when breeders and yearling sale agencies only want fast speedy, magnificently bred 2yos. What we want to achieve here, is to find more winners, and continue to be successful on the punt.

So why are distance races so much harder in which to predict the result ? Why are races of distances between 1200m & 1600m easier to predict a result ? Why are we asking this question ? Because, our results over time emphatically point to a lower winning strike rate when it comes to races of distances further than 1600m. This has got to the point where we are seriously considering not betting on any race, whose distance is further than 1600m. Now that is a pretty serious step to take, depsite the fact that less than 10% of all races in Australia are run over disatnces further than 1800m.

Let's look at a few issues.

Other than Victoria, where distance racing does flourish, the general field size of distance races is usually small. We'll call small, less than 10 in this instance. Distance racing flourishes in Victoria for two reasons. Victoria Racing schedule plenty of them, and it is a gradual step for most horses to progress to hurdles and steeple chasing. In other states, there are very few distance races scheduled. This means that other than in Victoria, most horses are not seasoned enough to run these trips, and very few have ever been over these trips before. Horses must be taught to settle in these races, and any horse who has not been over the journey before is likely to want to go at the speed it is used to, when running over shorter distances. In smaller fields, over a distance, the pace can get very muddling, giving leaders a decided advantage. Why, because mathematically horses can only run so fast over the final 600m, and a leader who has done no work out in front and has plenty of energy left will still be able to run that final 600m almost as fast as the backmarker who is giving the leader 3-4 lengths start. It is then impossible for the backmarker to run the leader down. So the 20/1 shot, who got the easy lead, wins the race.

Let's look at top weighted, or highly weighted horses in distance events. My old mate, now departed Brian Blackmore always used to tell me, "Never back a top weight with more than 57kg in a distance race, they rarely win". He was very close to the mark, ole Brian. We have refined his thinking just a little in this day and age of rising limit weights. Don't back a horse carrying more than 4kg over the limit weight in a distance race. Why ? Think seriously about this, and leave out WFA racing, as it is a totally different weight scale. As we have said before, fields these days are very level considering the way the breeding industry has left us with a multitude of speedy squib 2yos. So we have a field of 10 lining up for a 2400m slog fest, top weight carries 58kg, limit weight is 53kg. Now 5kg may not sound like much, especially if the toppie ran 2nd at Flemington last start, and the bottom weight ran 5th at Seymour. However, the further they go, the slower the toppie is going to run. Horses can and will overcome weight differences on class at distances of 1200m, but not over 2400m. Weight will stop them, and if other things go wrong in the run, like the horse over racing, or getting trapped wide, or as mentioned before getting too far back in a slowly run race, then the toppie is in real strife. Be very wary of top weights in distance races, everything has to go perfectly for them to win. And you will usually be taking short odds to find out if the toppie can carry the weight and win. A poor combination.

One thing we have noticed in distance racing is horses improving, and horses form degenerating as they step up in distance. Let's look firstly at horses improving. Why can horses improve in distance races? Several reasons:-

1. The horse has been running over unsuitable shorter courses, finally gets up to his right distance, the distance he has shown in the past he likes, and he will improve.

2. The horse has had one, or maybe even two races at a distance in this preparation, is now fitter and ready to run a big race. This horse needs a few runs at the distance before showing his best form and now improvement will be seen.

3. The horse can also improve simply because he is meeting a weaker field, which is often the case in distance races.

4. The horse has had 3-4 runs into a preparation, and has not performed up until now. Because of his poor form over unsuitable distances, he drops dramatically in the weights. Now up to his right distance, in at a very low weight, the horse is primed to win.

All these factors must be taken into account when assessing the form of a distance race. Far more intricate than a simple 1200m race where the form will always stand up.

Now let's look at why a horses form may degenerate in distance races:-

1. The horse has been performing consistenly in shorter races, now steps up a distance, but finds he goes up in the weights. Up 2kg, and up 200m or even 400m in distance is not an ideal combination.

2. The horse may be trying the distance for the very first time. Will he run it, or will he not. It is a real gamble, as unless he is bred to stay, and most Aussie horses are not, then chances are he won't.

3. The horse may be at the end of his preparation and running him over a distance "just to try him out" seemed like a good idea at the time to the trainer. We see this all the time, horse not performing over 1400m-1600m, so the trainer throws him into a 2000m race to test the water.

4. The horse jumps 400m or more from his last start, especially if he has never run this distance before. These horses usually fail.

We will use the Sydney Cup last Saturday as an example. The two favourites were Blutigeroo and Prince Arthur. PASS potted both in our email on Saturday morning to our clients. Both were big lays. Why? Blutigeroo was jumping from a 2400m win, his first run at 2400m, to a Group 1 3200m race. Up 800m in distance. He is by Encounter, breeding told us he would never run 3200m, and he had never been over the distance before. Prince Arthur very similar. He is by Danehill. Has Danehill ever sired 3200m winner in Australia? Not that we can recall, and he too was running over 3200m for the first time, jumping over 800m in distance, and he had never won past 2000m. Silly prices bet about both, and both failed to run a place. Who won? The horse who had won a Group 2 race over the distance of 3200m less than a month before, so he was fit and in form. And Gallic's odds were much more succulent than the two faves.

All we are saying is that distance races are very, very difficult affairs. We know that from our statistics, we struggle to win on them. Summary points:-

1. Horses that are bred to run 1200m-1400m will not win over 2400m or further, which is the case for most horses bred in Australia.

2. Horses jumping 400m or more in distance, will not win distance races, unless they have won over the distance before.

3. Horses with the top weights will struggle to win distance races, unless they are proven at the distance and with the weight. Gallic was a classic example of this.

4. Horses will improve (even dramatically) when they get to their right distance, however it may take a run or to for the to get to their peak.

5. Small field distance races can be dominated by leaders, or on speed runners, by the jockey dictating the speed.

The bottom line is, if you want to bet in distance races, you are better off looking for good value. A horse down in the weights, proven over the distance, drawn well and fit enough to run the journey.

We will definately be limiting our bets in races over distances further than 1600m in the future. In fact, we may even place a moratorium on them. It is probably the safest way to go.

If you would like to be informed of lays such as Blutigeroo & Prince Arthur, before they run, then please contact us here profselections@austarnet.com.au and you too can recieve emails with our advice every day.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

The Autumn Carnival Is Over

2007-04-15T20:31:00.000+10:00

Been a very busy weekend and was unable to update yesterday. However it is now fair to say that the carnival is over.

The punt was successful over the weekend, albeit in a minor way. Our main selection on Saturday, My Son Day at Doomben, never looked a winning possibility, however our one and only selection streeted his opposition at Musswellbrook today. Ten To Countdown won the last race and paid top tote of $2.80.

Currently our top selections here at PASS are running with a winning Strike Rate of over 45%, with an average winning price of $2.69, giving us a profit on turnover at level stakes of over 21%. This is after over 5 months of giving out top selections, and does not include winners provided with horses to follow, and exotic bets. How many other information services can boast a 21% profit rating over almost 6 months, with information being provided on a daily basis. Very few we would suggest.

The autumn carnival at Royal Randwick was unfortunately marred by rain affected tracks. Therefore it is very difficult to draw conclusive conclusions to the form of most of the races, when trying to assess the form for the future. What we will do in this post, is try to put some perspective on the Sydney Autumn carnival as a whole.

Firstly, let's look at the 2yo racing. As we noted prior to the Golden Slipper, a different horse had won every major lead up race. Well nothing changed in the 3 Group 1 2yo races to follow. A different horse won the Slipper, the Sires Produce & the Champagne on Saturday. So what does that tell us? It is the most even crop of 2yo's for years, that is what it tells us, and the form that will progress to the 3yo year will not stand up. Camerilla who started favourite in the Champagne on Saturday, was pollaxed so badly in the straight, she will never race again and has been retired to stud. Meurice who won the race, had run in all the major 2yo races since the spring, won a few, ran a place in a few, ran unplaced in a couple. He is obviously a very good horse, however what he has achieved this autumn would suggest it will be difficult for him to attain that standard again in the spring. The best 3yo's in the spring will probably have only had a couple of runs at this stage of their careers, if any at all. Our suggestion is to forget all 2yo form when assessing chances in the spring.

And what of the open class sprinters. Well, Bentley Biscuit is probably the best to come out of this group, with two outstanding wins at his two most recent starts. He is now off to England to race, and he will be very competitive there, as long as races have plenty of pace in them allowing him to settle and run on. Spark Of Life was disappointing other than his first up win, might be heading for the retirement paddock. Takeover Target has some problems, and he did run a great race on Saturday, but first up over 1400m, really Joe, that is not his go. Fast N Famous did not live up to his hype, although the wet tracks did not help him. Again, not too many to get excited about here.

The fillies and mares category is far more interesting. Divine Madonna stamped herself as the best mare in the country up to 1600m. She won the Queen Of The Turf and ran a great 3rd in the Doncaster. No reason to think she won't be competitive in the spring. Hot Danish won on Saturday like a very, very good horse and she too has plenty of spring races at her mercy. Miss Finland is obviously outstanding in this category, and if she does race in the spring, a race like the Cox Plate would not be beyond her. Only a wet track dampened her performance in the Derby, and she will improve on that given a dry track. Teusday Joy was disappointing in our eyes, and we would be happy to risk her in the spring. She will get into a Caulfield Cup with a light weight, but she needs every single thing to go her way, and if Singo persists with Danny Beasley as her jockey, then her spring is as good as over now.

The 3yo colts & geldings were very simlilar to the 2yos with a different horse winning almost every group race. Fuimicino won the Derby and he will be right up to Caulfield & Melbourne Cups in the spring, especially if tracks are rain affected. However there was again no standout with a different horse winning every leg of the triple crown, and not even the same horse winning the Packer Plate or the Tulloch Stakes. A very even lot in our opinion and there might be a few who missed the autumn who will attack the spring as virtual unknowns. Th two who quninelled the Doncaster are a different proposition. We think Mentality is outstanding, and he will win Group 1 races in the Spring. We rate Haradasun marginally behind Mentality, however he too will win group 1 races in the spring if he avoids Mentality. Mentality will get the pull in the weights now from Haradasun after his 3 group 1 wins, and we are happy to back Mentality every time he races Haradasun in the spring.

The open class WFA horses still show they are not up to previous years. We predicted a big positive form reversal from Desert War on Saturday in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He loves 2000m, loves Randwick, and loves getting his own way in front. He didnt run the 2400m of the Tancred at Rosehill, just as Blutigeroo who won the Tancred did not run the 3200m of the Sydney Cup. The form of these horses will stand up at the right ditances, on the right track. Blutigeroo is a Caulfield Cup horse in the spring, Desert War is not, but Desert War could win the Cox Plate or the Mckinnon Stakes. All these races are a long way off, and the next superstar of WFA racing could be eating grass in the paddock as we type.

So, it is upward and onward to Brisbane winter carnival which is now starting to hot up. What horse that have just come back to racing will show up in the Sunshine State? Well, certainly Reigning To Win was well underdone and poorly ridden at Randwick on Monday. Whatever he did he will improve greatly next time out and will win. Not sure what the aim for him in Brisbane, but he will pick up a few races. The Stradbroke would not be beyond him. Primus will also be set for the Stradbroke and will improve on his first up effort on the wet track. He just doesn't get 1600m, so the 1400m of the Straddie will be right down his alley. One on the way to Brisbane for the QTC Derby is the Jack Denham trained Beau Celeb, who won effortlessly at Hawkesbuty on Monday. Jack only keeps a couple of good ones in his name now, so watch out for this bloke when he gets to 1600m and further. He will win a few races in Brisbane.

Trust everyone had a successful winning carnival. Plenty of winners provided her at PASS, and even a few exotics. As the weather gets cooler, our information gets hotter, so please contact us here to receive our daily emails profselections@austarnet.com.au

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

Another Winner

2007-04-12T20:30:00.000+10:00

Firstly, congratulations to our esteemed PASS member who snagged the Fat Quaddie at Randwick on Oaks Day. In our email yesterday morning, we highlighted the chances of both Sliding Cube & Rena's Lady. These two fillies were participating in the first two legs of the quaddie, so our member stood them out to win the first two legs, then coupled them up with several runners in the final two legs. Both Sliding Cube ($3.50) and Rena's Lady ($16.70) won the first two legs of the quaddie, his other multiple selections also saluted in the last two legs, and the fat quaddie was his. The quaddie paid over $8,000 on NSW TAB, however, because he stood out our two selections, he grabbed 218% of the quaddie, pocketing him well over $18,000. Well done, mate !!

Today, we provided our clients with only one selection, Rockhampton Race 3 No5 Where's The Spark. Where's The Spark was beautifully ridden by promising apprentice Chris McIver and won easily paying top tote of $3.70. Chris positioned the gelding perfectly well off the speed on the fence, brought him to the middle of the track in the straight, and Where's The Spark did the rest finishing powerfully over the final 200m to win comfortably.

A couple of horses to follow today from the meeting at Ballarat in Victoria. Both Its Prince & Thundering Spur won their respective assignments today, and bigger things are in store for them in the future. Another very interesting maiden winner today at Ballarat was the Mark Kavanagh trained Relentlessly, who is a half brother to his great 4yo mare, Divine Madonna. All three of these horses should be watched and followed as they progress through the grades.

We are having a day off the punt tomorrow to attend the Magic Millions Monthly Sale on the Gold Coast. However, we will be home in time to do plenty of form study to find a few winners for Saturday. With the prospect of a good track at Randwick for the last day of their carnival, we can finally get excited about having a punt over the autumn carnival.

If you would like all the winners currently being provded to our members, please contact us profselections@austarnet.com.au and the winners can be yours.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

Ladies Day

2007-04-11T19:51:00.000+10:00

Today was nominated Ladies Day by the AJC and saw the running of the time honoured AJC Oaks for the 3yo fillies. It was great to see the Oaks returned to its traditional place on the racing calendar and run on the Wednesday of the Autumn Carnival. Unfortunately, Randwick played on a slow again today which is disappointing for punters. And after the races on Oaks Day, the racing fraternity heads to Newmarket to partake in the William Inglis Easter Yearling Sales, the number 1 yearling sale on the calendar.

A most hearty congratulations should be sent to Gary Portelli today. He trained his first Group 1 winner today when Rena's Lady led all the way to win the AJC Oaks. A terrific front running ride by Michael Rodd saw the Arena filly hold challenges by the more fancied runners to win at the luxurious odds of $16.70. Rodd set a muddling pace throughout the race, and gave the backmarkers little hope of making up the necessary ground in the straight. He knew his filly would handle the rain affected track, and he knew she would stay the 2400m and that she did. Let's hope there are plenty more Group 1 winners for Gary, he is one of the nice guys and deserves his success. Michael Rodd is also one of the more level headed jockeys around, and he can ride. In our opinion, Rodd is one of the top 5 jockeys in Australia, if not in the top 3. Never be afraid to put your money on either Michael Rodd or Gary Portelli as you know they are both trying every time they go around.

Randwick today also played host to a regally bred chestnut 2yo filly. This filly is by champion European galloper Rock Of Gibraltar, out of Shantha's Choice, who is no less the dam of Redoute's Choice & Platinum Scissors. Her name is Sliding Cube, and she is owned in the same interests as her famous brothers. She had won her first race start at Warwick Farm by over 3 lengths, and came to Randwick today to compete in a Listed race. She showed today, breeding can get you any where fast, and at only her second start in a race, she duely saluted and now has that important black type in her pedigree. Sliding Cube could well head to Brisbane now for the winter carnival, as she has only had two runs. But she could also be a force in the Spring racing in Victoria if given her chance there.

We gave out two PASS selections today, without much luck to either. Both Boy John and Gold Dove finished second after being in front only metres before the winning post.

A horse we have earmarked to follow went around at Sandown this afternoon, and performed most disappointingly. Kitz Lane has been good to us in the past and we think he is a group horse in the making. The following extract is from the Stewards Report from Sandown today:-

When questioned, V Duric (Kitz Lane (NZ)) explained that he was obliged to use the horse’s gate speed early, however, the gelding dipped several times during the race and he could offer no further explanation as to why it failed to run on. A veterinary examination of Kitz Lane (NZ) revealed the gelding to be suffering with atrial fibrillation. Trainer Mr L Freedman was notified that prior to Kitz Lane (NZ) racing again, a veterinary certificate, along with the satisfactory results of an ECG, must be produced.

Hopefully the run can be overlooked, and nothing serious happened to him, as he is a promising horse. We will let you all know when he fronts up at the race track again.

More racing on tomorrow, All Aged Stakes Day at Randwick on Saturday. The winter carnival is starting to hot up in Brisbane, so plenty to look forward to in the coming weeks.

If you would like to receive our daily emails, which porvide you with all the information you require to profit from punting on horse racing, then please contact us profselections@austarnet.com.au

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

Easter Recap

2007-04-10T19:40:00.000+10:00

We punters are a resilliant lot. Good Friday comes and goes every year and we actually survive without being able to have a bet on the gallops. But the TAB's and race clubs make it up to us over the next few days as a plethora of racing engulfs us. Easter is not only a time where a couple of Public Holidays allow most of us to get a long weekend, it is a time where a famine evolves into a feast for the punter.

We here at PASS have had a quiet time of it leading up to Easter, however we came out with all guns ablaze over the weekend. Two out of our four specials saluted over the three days, Tonz More Fun on Sunday and Almost Never on Easter Monday. We also selected the trifecta in the Doncaster in four, this right on the heels of selecting for our members the trifecta in the Golden Slipper a week before. Yesterday, our members were also pointed in the direction of winners from our horses to follow, Master O'Reilly, and another who has just joined that list, Beau Celeb. And one member snagged the quaddie at Caulfield on Saturday, after standing out our No1 selection in the Easter Cup, Maldivian. So the plethora of racing has led to a plethora of winners for all our members here at PASS.

PASS has now been providing information for punters for 6 months. We consistently select winners, we consistenly provide horses to follow which keep winning and we consistently assist punters to profit from betting on horse racing. We have provided over 100 selections, for a winning strike rate of over 45%, an average winning price of $2.68, with profit levels well over 21% on turnover at level stakes. It would be very difficult to nominate any other professional information service on Australian horse racing that can boast a record as good as that, over a lengthy period of time. And on top of that, we are providing information to point our members into profiting from exotic betting as well.

So, how good is Haradasun? Will Forensics win another race? Who will win the AJC Oaks? Read on.

The Doncaster has become a race for 3yos over recent years. Sunline (51kg), Over (51kg), Racing To Win (51.5kg) have all won carrying light weights in recent years. Yesterday, Haradasun (53kg) & Mentality (55kg) were asked to carry more wight than any of these previous winners. Even Emancipation had to carry 54kg back in the early 80s before going on to win easily. So you can see by weights and measures, the efforts of both Haradasun and Mentality were outstanding. Haradasun started from barrier 1, Mentality from barrier 14. Boss rode Haradasun perfectly, as did Beadman on Mentality. At the weights, these two should not have won the race, but they did indeed fight the race out. This points to both being well above average, and with natural improvement, they will be the stars of the Spring carnival later in the year. Looking at the weights of this years Doncaster, and the barrier draw, we think Mentality is a better horse than Haradasun, and he will prove that in the spring. In saying that, both will win Group 1 races in the future, in fact, both will win multiple group races in the future as long as they stay sound. Both should be followed, and next time they meet, if Mentality gets the pull in the weights, get on him.

The Derby was run on Saturday on a badly rain affected track, and we feel not too much should be read into the form. Fiumicino was too good on the day and deserved his victory, and we certainly cannot deny Nick Moraitis nor John Hawkes, nor Darren Beadman a Derby win. He will furnish into a great Cups horse in the Spring if he stays sound. Hard to line up the others, obviously Ambitious General is a very good horse and he too will aquit himself well in the spring. Miss Finland got bogged down in the slow going, she now needs a good long spell. And Tuesday Joy will go around again tomorrow in the Oaks after finishing a gallant third behind the top two colts and geldings. Can she win? Well, she has lengths on her opposition, and as long as she has taken no harm from Saturdays run, then she should win. However she is not a betting proposition to us.

And the Golden Slipper form stood up on Saturday in the AJC Sires Produce Stakes with Zizou going down narrowly to Camerilla who missed the Slipper to give the winner Forensics a run. Two very good 2yo fillies winning the Group 1's in successive weeks for John Hawkes and Darren Beadman. He can place them Hawkesy. You have to feel sorry for the connections of Zizou, second placings in the three major Group 1s for 2yos, the Blue Diamond, Golden Slipper, and the AJC Sires Produce. Only the Spring will tell us if the 2yo form will stand up.

Now, here at PASS we have come up with a couple of good things for tomorrow. Looks like a reasonable track will prevail at Royal Randwick, so we can bet with a little more confidence than over the weekend. We also have a horse running at Sandown that we have not revealed as yet to our members that will be winning. He is a very promising, and lightly raced gelding that in our opinion will win Group 1 races.

If you would like to be afforded all the information you require to profit from punting on horse racing, icluding the good things for AJC Oaks Day, please contact us here profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will provide you with all the information you need.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

Golden Slipper Week

2007-03-26T09:55:00.000+10:00

Firstly, just a review of our last post in regards to weather and track conditions. Last Monday, Goulburn races were abandoned due to the heavy rain, so we all saved our money there. Mildura track was actually downgraded to a dead 5, and course commentator Rick McIntosh indicated serveral times during the afternoon the track was believed to be slow by the jockeys. Every winner came down the middle of the track, leaders and horses on the fence were severely disadvantaged. So common sense prevailed, and no bets were placed. This is a very important factor to keep monitoring during every punting day at every venue. Ignore it at your own wallets peril.

This week is a big week in Sydney racing, with the lead up to the No.1 2yo race of the year, the Golden Slipper Stakes. The race this year looks more even than most, with a different horse winning every lead up race over the past 3 weeks. Barrier draw will be crucial, and anything that draws outside 5 or 6 will see their chances wash down the drain. Whichever horse horse draws well, gets the best run in the race, and gets clear running in the straight will win. And the other important factor, which most of us will never know until after the race has been run, is which of the combatants have been able to stand up to all the early pressure placed on their legs and and tendons and run faster on the day.

Until recently, 2yo years have been dominated by one or two very good horses. However over the past 10 years this is certainly not the case. We have not seen a Vain, or a Luskin Star, a John's Hope or a Manikato dominate the way it commonly occurred 20-30 years ago. The reason is fairly obvious. The breeding industry has changed so much over the years, with a lot of shuttle stallions coming to Australia and literally a hundred sons of Danehill standing at stud, that the bloodlines are slowly being spread so far, that the horses are much more evenly matched now than in yesteryear. Similar things are happening in the top WFA races around the country, with no sign of a Sunline, Northerly, Lonhro or lo and behold a Kingston Town to dominate.

And the prizemoney put up by the STC for the Golden Slipper is totally outrageous. It encourages owners and trainers to race horses at far too young an age, when their bones structure may not be fully mature to cope with the stress of racing. Seldom these days do we see Golden Slipper runners, let alone winners go to greatness at an older age. Most are either retired to stud, or retired due to injury much earlier than horse who are not over raced as 2yos.

And because the Australian breeding industry angles toward producing a fast early running 2yo, the middle distance & staying bred horses are suffering a slow agonising death. Overseas bred horses have now won the last 5 Melbourne Cups. Makybe Diva's dam was purchased in England and brought to Australia specifically to breed a staying horse. Middle distance and staying races are dwindling in numbers, except in Victoria, and entries in these races are continually on the decline. A very sad indictment on not only the race scheduling and structure of the industry, but on the Australian breeding industry itself.

We now breed speedy squibs, rushed into racing too early, with more horses breaking down than ever before. And we also have far too many slow horses and broodmares to strengthen the breeding lines. The thorughbred lines are weakening further year after year, producing fewer good horses, only producing a more even lot of thoroughbreds.

And there is no end in sight. With the major studs & auctioneers controlling yearling sales, a select few purchasing the quality lots at ridiculously huge selling prices, little can be done to steady the current situation. You cannot blame owners and trainers for targetting races like the Golden Slipper, who wouldn't want to win millions of dollars with a horse having it's third or fourth start in a race? Race clubs have to take some responsibility, and spread prizemoney around more evenly, especially to middle distance and staying races. Our fear is this will not happen.

So, who will win Australia's most prestigious 2yo race? We will post later in the week after the barrier draw with some thoughts. But one thing is for certain, we will not be betting on the 2007 Golden Slipper.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

Monitoring Weather & Track Conditions

2007-03-19T08:40:00.000+10:00

We briefly covered in our post yesterday the consequences to punters when tracks are downgraded during an afternoon's racing. Now this happened at Rosehill on Saturday, when heavy rain fell throughout the afternoon causing the track to be downgraded from good to dead, and then to slow. Plenty on course actually thought the track was heavy coming into the last. Punters who placed their bets early on Saturday, before the rains came, did their money cold by backing horses they thought were running on a good track. They also did their money cold backing horses starting from good barrier draws, because with the rain, the inside of the track cut up very badly giving horses in the lead and near the fence absolutely no hope of winning.

Firstly, let's cover a couple of things we do religiously in our punting.

Firstly, we do not bet on tracks that are worse than dead. There are many reasons for this. But the main reason is that even though a horse handled a slow or heavy track condition at one venue, it does not necessarily mean that same horse will handle it at another venue. Alternatively, if a horse fails miserably on a heavy surface at one venue, he may not necessarily fail to handle the heavy on another surface. Why? Because every track has a different base, different cambour, different grass. And it is impossible for the punter to ascertain all the necessary information to determine whether a horse is running on a similar surface today, to which he raced last week. To predict acurately whether a horse will or will not handle a rain affected track is trying to predict the future, and usually form reversals. And it is extremely difficult to predict form reversals unless you have every peice of information required. And the punter does not have all the information. Seriously, save your money, make one of your basic rules not to bet on rain affected tracks.

Secondly, as we did this morning and every morning, we check the radar on the BOM web site to see if there is any rain heading toward the venue where we intend to have a bet. We also check the radar around midday to ensure rain will not play a part in the afternoon's punting. This is an integral part of our punting procedures. It ensures we avail ourselves of important weather information, and we can bet with confidence, or reconsider our position.

Today (and Saturday) is a typical example of why we should apply both the previous two methods to our punting. We came up with two good things today, one at Goulburn and one at Mildura. After checking weather and track conditions, and applying our final morning filters, these two horses stood out and looked very safe bets today. However, we then checked the Mildura radar, and lo and behold, the radar showed rain in the area, in fact it had been raining at Mildura for a couple of hours. And more rain is on the way. Admittedly, it is not heavy rain, however, if it does continue for several hours, will most definately have an affect on the track. We then checked the BOM radar at Goulburn, and found a large rain depression heading directly toward the city. It looked like it had not rained as yet, however, it is a situation to be closely monitored throughout the morning and afternoon. We do all our form and selections, for good tracks. Now, had we not checked the radar situation, then we would have placed our bets blindly and if the rains came, we could possibly be betting on rain affetced tracks, not knowing whether our horses are able to handle it or not. And also not knowing whether a "swimmer" is engaged in the race to knock our selection off. After the bets are placed, we have no way of cancelling them, so we must be sure of every factor prior to any bet being placed. Otherwise, our hard earned money may be gone forever, without us even getting a decent run for it.

What we now must do is monitor the weather and track conditions throughout the day. If more rains come to the venues, then we don't bet. We will watch the first 3-4 races at each venue to assess the possibility of any track bias. Both our selections have drawn inside gates, so may well be severely disadvantaged if the rail cuts up as it did on Saturday at Rosehill. Be aware of any track downgrade throughout the day, and of any distinct track bias caused by waning weather conditions.

Serious punters should make sure they take these measures into account every day before having a bet. Monitor weather and track conditions every day and adjust your thoughts accordingly. If rains come and the tracks are downgraded, don't bet, it is a simple as that.

And as we mentioned yesterday, form coming out of these meetings run on downgraded tracks, can be very misleading. Be very careful when assessing form out of these meetings, form reversals will abound for several weeks after, making punting a nightmare. At least now, youa re preapred for it.

Oh, and I suppose you would like to know what the two good things are? We won't be sending emails out to members this morning because we don't know how the tracks will be playing come race time mid afternoon. We don't even know if we will or won't back these two horses today. Not until very close to jump time of both races after serious consideration is given to the prevailing weather and track conditions and bias. If either tracks are downgraded, we won't be betting.

The selections were:-

Goulburn R5 No4 Brisk Joh
Mildura R6 No1 Schwarzkopf

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

Horses To Follow

2007-03-18T08:31:00.000+10:00

We have given out 4 selections over the past 2 days for our members for 2 winners. Our winning strike rate is still well over 45% with an average winning price of $2.68. Still nice profits to be made at level stakes, and even better using a more sophisticated staking plan.

One of the services we provide to our members are horses to follow, which we inform members via email the morning they are running. Yesterday morning we reminded our members that Forest Knight was a horse to follow and was running at Sandown. He duely saluted at the succulent odds of $6.50. Another horse to follow which ran yesterday was Bon Hoffa, who ran a terrific second to Apache Cat in the Blamey Stakes. Bon Hoffa was double firgure odds and paid $2.50 for the place, and the quinella with the favourite paid well over $7 for a single dollar investment.

Forest Knight is now getting up in the weights a little, and will have to find black type company to get some weight relief. However, he is very consistent, always puts in and has a will to win. He is still worth following. There is definately a race for Bon Hoffa next start. Maybe a Doncaster will be a little too steep for him, as he will come up against Apache Cat again, however a race over 1800m-2000m awaits him. He should continued to be followed.

Apache Cat's run yesterday to win the Blamey Stakes was outstanding, and he now gets into a race like the Doncaster with an excellent chance. He pulled a little yesterday in the early stages with a muddling pace, but that didn't deter him in the straight as he cleared out to win easily. That was only his third run after a spell, so there is most definately another win or two in him this preparation.

Two others who impressed us greatly yesterday. At Sandown, Maldivian won the last in emphatic fashion, finally showing everyone the early hype around this horse was indeed justified. It took him a while to win his first race but has now won 3 from 9 along with 5 placings, and the way he won yesterday a Group race is certainly not out of the question for him. He sits right up on the pace, stays out of trouble, but still settles well enough to allow him a good kick at the finish. And he should get 2000m going on his pedigree and the way he won yesterday. Maldivian is definately a horse to follow.

The other horse to follow from yesterday is WA Derby contender New Spice. He won the traditional lead up yesterday comfortably after overcoming a few difficulties in the run. New Spice was settled well in the early stages in 3rd spot just off the pace, however, at around the 1000m, a few others made runs around the outside causing New Spice to ease and lose his position. He was good enough to overcome this and by the time the field was turning for home, New Spice was out and running. He showed an extraordinary turn of foot in the striaght to clear out and win by over 3 lengths. New Spice should win the WA Derby comfortably in two weeks.

Our losing selection yesterday was Nike Heir at Ascot. He was desparately unlucky and probably should have won. He got a long way back in the field, but was badly held up when trying to improve around the 600m. He didn't get clear until well into the straight, but by this time the winning birds had flown. He rocketed to the line to finish third, beaten less than a length, another 50m he wins. Nike Heir should also be winning next time he steps out onto the Ascot turf.

We will remind our members when these horses next run in our regular morning emails.

Just a quick comment in regards to Rosehill Gardens yesterday. Most unfortunate for the STC that the rain came and the track deteriorated in condition. From race 2 onwards, the fence became a no go zone and no horse led, or came along the rails to win. In fact, by the last horses were winning in the centre of the track or even wider.

Two things come out of this situation. Firstly, yesterday's rain at Rosehill highlights one important facet of punting. Don't place bets too early so you can adjust your bets in conjunction with prevalent track and weather conditions. By waiting to place bets until close to race jump time, you can take into account a deteriorating track like Rosehill yesterday. Horses drawn inside barriers yesterday, had little or no hope of winning, unless they were snagged back from the start and circled the field. We rated Posadas clearly on top in Race 8 yesterday, however in the morning decided no bet because he drew so wide from the 1200m start, which as eveyones knows is dynamite. But due to the track favouring horses out wide, Posadas came down the middle of the track to win. This is one circumstance where outside barriers can be beneficial, and inside barriers are rendered totally useless. So take heed during the days racing to any prevailing bias or change in conditions, and rearrange your bets to suit these occurrances. In fact, when rain like this falls during a meeting, then it is probably best not to have any bets at all.

The second outcome of the Rosehill meeting yesterday, is to just totally forget the form. Because of the track conditions, and track bias, there will be plenty of form reversals to come out of the meeting. Some horses who were disadvantaged, will improve dramatically at their next outing, whereas some horses who were distinctly advantaged yesterday will not perform as well next start. Bear this in mind when assessing form over the next few weeks in Sydney. Those horses who were stuck near the rails in the later races and were well beaten may improve sharply at their next assigment. And those horses who sat deep in the better going and came down the outside, may not be as advantaged when next they race. It is difficult to predict form reversals at any time, so bet with caution in Sydney over the next few weeks.

We cannot find a good thing for today, but there will be plenty next week. So if you would like to become a member, please contact us profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will assist you to join in all the winners.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

The Inevitable Losing Streak

2007-03-16T09:41:00.000+10:00

Although still well into profit, our selections over the past two weeks have suffered the inevitable losing run. Only two winners from our last 10 selections, win strike rate dwindling down around the 45% mark, and profits plummeting to only 24% POI. What is positive, and quite outstanding, is the palce strike rate of well over 81%. What this indicates, is we are not that far off the mark, as most if they don't win, run a place.

The other disturbing feature is that everything we select, seems to come up very, very short odds. Yesterday we withheld what we thought was a good thing from our members, just to test the water and see what odds it would come up. The horse won at Hawkesbury, Musaytir, however was odds on throughout betting ending up paying $2.00 across most TAB's. This only proved that others are thinking like us, and there are not hundreds of people following our selections. Again, no great issue there, we just have to publish the winners we find.

So it becomes a mind game, your grit and determination against your excrutiating desire to find that elusive winner. Who wins, how do we overcome it, and how do we get back on track.

The first thing to examine is our selection strategy. We usually come up with 2-3 bets on a daily basis, we then have a closer look at each race we have a selection in and decide approximately what odds the selection will be. Virtually, we have to choose one horse from 3 or 4 bets per day, and hopefully we find the winner, not the loser. Yesterday for example, we thought Hotelier at Townsville was a living certainty, however it was obvious to us (and most others) that he would 2s on. So we didn't make him a selection. We chose a far more difficult race the last at Ballarat, hoping we would get decent odds about our selection, Blue Finch. We thought there were 2 or 3 other definate hopes in the race, allowing us to obtain reasonable odds about the good thing. Alas, Blue Finch opened odds on, drifted to black figures fleetingly, only to be backed heavily late in betting to start even money. And to put the icing on the cake, Blue Finch was run down in the last stride by Assent to run a narrow second. Exasperatingly frustrating to say the least.

We can do a number of things. First inclination is to make less selections. However what we will find in doing this, is the odds of the horses selected will be very skinny. The reason we show a profit is because we find the odd $4-$7 winner to keep the average winning price at a high level (currently $2.75). Second thoughts are to publish all our selections, including the Hotelier's of this world. We are most uncomfortable with this because tipping 1/2 horses, especially if they get beaten is no rocket science. And of course, the most obvious solution is simply to have more bets. Now this is the solution that most punters would adopt. Losing streak must end eventually if you back more horses, with more chances of finding a winner. However what happens in this case is that you also back more losers, and inevitably lose more money.

What we will do is go back to basics.

What is our goal? Our goal is to show a good profit when punting on thoroughbred horses.

Are we achieving our goal? Yes, however not to our high standards.

What were we doing when achieving our main goals different to what we are doing now? Well, when we first began, we were giving out more than one selection per day, especially on Saturdays. In recent times, we have deliberately restricted our selections to one per day.

Okay, so we will go back to our humble beginnings and start giving out more selections. We will inform our members of all the horses we intend to back every day. For example, we had 3 bets yesterday, Hotelier, Musaytir & Blue Finch. We showed a small profit on the day, however out published selection ran second, showing a loss for our PASS members. We don't think that is fair to our members. And if we give out all our bets, then each member can make their own decision as to whether they wish to back them all. If you don't want to take the $1.40 about Hotelier, then don't, the decision will be totally yours. But if you are happy to make small amounts like yesterday, and slowly build your bank balance (which is the only way to make a profit on horse racing) then the opportunity will be there.

So we will start with today and post our two bets for today here on the blog site for all to see.

Mackay R1 No2 Red Meshach
Moonee Valley R7 No7 Anabaa King Prawn

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

A New Way For Punters To Do Their Doe

2007-03-01T08:09:00.000+10:00

Yesterday we gave out what we thought was a good thing at Eagle Farm to our members. The horse was in race 6, named Borsha's Warrior. We knew it would start favourite, but had the credentials to beat his rivals easily. Or so we thought.

Now before we go any further, we have to relate the true story of an event that occurred on 2 June 1998 at Ballarat race course in Victoria. This event, up until yesterday, was the single most amazing way we have ever lost our money on a horse race. On this day, a very classy horse named Victoria Park was racing at Ballarat. He was a Group winner, and multiple Group placegetter, and was in a weak Open Handicap with 59.5kg, less a 3kg claim for apprentice Pat Ferris. At his previous start, Victoria Park had run 2nd at Caulfield, and being back in grade, and actually down in weight, he looked a living certainty. The bookies gave us luxurious odds of $3.50 or 5/2 in those days, which looked overly generous. Now, Ferris, although very inexperienced, had barrier 1 to assist him, and all he had to do that was steer, and Victoria Park puts a bundle into our wallets. As the field jumped, Ferris positioned Victoria Park beautifully, on the fence, directly behind the leaders getting a very easy run. Around the 800m mark, it looked like he had to ease the horse slightly to avoid heels in front, but steadied up well and as the field turned for home, Victoria Park was cruising 2 lengths from the lead. Ferris adeptly found a passage off the fence, strode up to the leaders, and put paid to his opposition in one fell swoop. He charged away to win by over 3 lengths, putting gleeful smiles all over his supporters faces. What a price, he should have been 2s on !!

Anyway, as we all know, it is not over until the fat lady sings, or the jockey weighs in correctly in this case. Ferris came back to scale with saddle and whip in hand and weighed in 2 kg light. This despite weiging out correctly only 15 minutes earlier. Well what transpired I have never seen or heard of, before or since on a race course. At the 800m mark of the race, when we thought the horse got slightly inconvenienced, Victoria Park actually brushed the inside running rail. The saddle bag, carrying the lead weights hit the rail, and some of the lead bags were dislodged from the bag, falling to the turf. And along with the lead bags went our money. So when Ferris got back to scale, he wasn't carrying the correct weight, and therefore Stewards had no choice but to disqualify Victoria Park from all placings. So punters who backed Victoria Park did their money cold, not even a refund. We didn't even get a run for our money.

I didn't think we would do our money in such unusual circumstances ever again. That was until Eagle Farm yesterday.

At around 8:30am, after scratchings and track conditions for all venues were avalaible, we put out Borsha's Warrior as our best bet for the day. We knew it would be favourite, but should have been able to easily account for his rivals. Around mid afternoon, we were checking gear changes for the Bunbury meeting and happened to glance at Eagle Farm. To our astonishment Borsha's Warrior appeared in the gear changes with the word "GELDED" written next to him. Now this sent alarm bells ringing. We checked the date of his last run, 9/2/2007, which gave him only 19 days to recover from this operation. Now, we here at Massie Lodge have had a bit of experience with geldings, in fact we have performed many here. After the operation, which is not stitched, the horse is left in a small yard for around 7 days, so he can walk around comfortably. The bleeding usually takes several days to cease. After 7 days we place the horse in a larger paddock and let him recover fully for another week, then he can return to work if required. There is no way a horse can do proper track work for at least 2 weeks after being gelded, usually 3 weeks. His last run was less than 3 weeks before this run. And it would be hard to imagine he was gelded even the day after his previous run, more likely two days after. This means he only had 16-17 days to recover, and would not have done any serious work in that time.

Now, Borsha's Warrior started long odds on yesterday, around $1.75, meaning we were not the only ones to back him. Hundreds, if not thousands of punters had their hard earned on him. I wonder if they would have backed him had they known about the gelding? Damn sure we would not have.

Borsha's Warrior jumped only fairly and had to work hard early to get up outside the leader. He was still there on the turn, however soon after straightening ti was obvious he had had enough and began to weaken. So would you if you had been gelded less than 3 weeks earlier. Borsha's Warrior finished a creditable 3rd, and on that run, should win in the near future if able to be given a proper preparation up to the race. In fact, we will definately be on him next time he runs around as the effort under the circumstances yesterday was outstanding.

Another new way to do our doe, maybe not quite as bemusing as Victoria Park, but somehting nonetheless that punters must be aware of in the future.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

Some Observations From Blue Diamond Stakes Day

2007-02-25T11:25:00.000+10:00

Firstly a quick update on our selection service. So far we have had 78 selections, for 38 winners at an average winning price of $2.71. A profit of over 30% on turnover at level stakes. PASS has now been in operation for enarly 4 months, so it is fairly obvious good profits can be made from supporting our selections and horses to follow.

We have had a good week here at PASS. Three of our last four selections have saluted, with Crosswise doing the job impressively for our members yesterday. We also encouraged them to have something each way on Bon Hoffa who ran a mighty second to Apache Cat in the Carylyon Cup at $15. A great effort after a wide run, and he is a horse to follow.

Caulfield race course yesterday hosted a vast array of thoroughbred horse talent with the running of Group 1 Blue Diamod Stakes & Oakleigh Plate. There were also several other group races on the 9 event program.

Congratulations must go again to David Hayes, who quinellered the Group 1 2yo race with Sleek Chasis and Zizou. Hayes had 5 starters in all, and looked to have a mortgage on the race and that is how it turned out. Hayes certainly has many more horses in work than any other trainer in Australia, especially two year olds, and one has to wonder how many fell by the wayside in preparation for this years 2yo Classics. With plans afoot now for both winner and runner up to head to Sydney for the Golden Slipper it will be interesting to see if they can stand up to racing and maintain their form. It is almost impossible these days to win a Blue Diamond and a Golden Slipper in the same year with the same horse, as tough a challenge as it is. The Golden Slipper is still 5 weeks away, and to keep a young still growing 2yo sound and and peaking for that period of time is an almighty task. But if anyone can do it, then David Hayes would have to be your man.

Big prizemoney dominates 2yo racing in 2007, and you can't blame owners and trainers for chasing the money on offer. However one has to wonder how detrimental racing 2yos so much so young is to their health. It is most unusual to see good 2yos continue racing through to 4,5 or even 6 you nowadays. But I suppose with the money on offer for 2yo races, do owners and trainers really care? And the detriment to Australian staying races, due to so many 2yos being over raced, is becoming increasingly obvious. You don't just have to look at the 2006 Melbourne Cup, look at todays $166,000 Gosford Cup. Only 9 final runners, and although most have plenty of ability, the majority have had plenty of chances as well. Must be very disappointing for the GRC to see their number one event with such a small field. And what about Queensland, Northern Territory & country areas of NSW? Race clubs don't even schedule events of distances further than 1600m. What chance does that give to staying types?

Unfortunately yearling sales, and 2yo racing are dominating the Australian turf in 2007, which does not augur well for racing future in this country.

The other issue we would like to raise from yesterday is simply about the state of the Caulfield track itself. It became eveident early in the nine race program, that jockeys were beginning to steer well clear of the inside running rail. Now very little rain had fallen on the track, or so we were told yesterday morning. However the inside section became very cut up and was a no go zone from race 4 onward. This is totally unacceptable for a major Group 1 race day. Even winners like Seachange & Apache Cat who sat on or near the speed, won travelling well off the fence in the straight. Melbourne race clubs are forced by Racing Victoria officials to have tracks on race days dead, so there is no jar in the ground. So plenty of irrigation is placed on the track in the lead up to meetings. Any minute amount of rain on the course then worsens the going, and the first place to be affected will be the inside as that is where most of the traffic evolves. We don't know whether over irrigation or unpredicted rain was the issue yesterday, whatever the reason, procedures must be put into place so this doesn't happen on a major race day again.

Think about the poor punters who spent hours on the form analysing every aspect and came up with horses drawn barrier 1 or 2. Those horses had no hope yesterday at Caulfield because they were stuck on the glue pot on the fence. And punters who rightfully discounted runners drawn wide with awkward gates, were dismayed when these horses were storming home out wide after tough runs. Punters in this day and age are treated like mushrooms. As long as they are placing bets and increasing turnover for the TAB's, nothing will ever be done to assist or support them. TAB's and race clubs are now only interested in getting punters to place bets. Gettum drunk & gettum betting, because if they don't do it here, they will do it elsewhere at pubs, clubs or casinos.

Punters should always be aware of any track bias on the day. Watch the first few races, see where the winners come from, assess in your own eyes if the inside or outside is being cut more than the other. Re assess you selections as the day unfolds, and if you are not sure where the best to be really is, then don't have a bet. They run around again tomorrow, somehwere.

Anyway, Victorian race clubs please take note. Punters want good race tracks to bet on, with no track bias. Not a lot to ask, we would have thought, especially on a Group 1 race day.

So if you are having trouble finding that elusive winner, send us an email to profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will point you in the direction on how to not only enjoy what our current memebrs are enjoying, plenty of winners. But you will also learn how to find more winners, find less losers, and thoroughly enjoy your punting.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

The Single Most Important Factor When Assessing a Race

2007-02-15T12:44:00.000+10:00

In this day and age, where classic bloodlines have been filtered through, and shuttle stallions come and go on a yearly basis, thoroughbred horse racing has become far more even than in years gone by. It is very rare now to find a virtually unbeatable horse like Kingston Town, Phar Lap, Tulloch or Bernborough. There are always plenty of good horses, like Lonhro, Sunline and Northerly, but gone are the days when one horse can win everything it is entered in. And this is just the better class of horse. As we get down in grades, to Class 1, 2 or even maidens, horse flesh is so evenly balanced, the most minor issue in a race can be the difference between winning and losing. A slight check, being held up for a run even for a mere 50m, slightly missing the start, and there are plenty of other reasons.

So basically these days, the horse with the best run in the race will usually win. The horse that draws well, is ridden well, gets all the favours and clear runs at the right time, that is the horse you want to have your hard earned money on. Not necessarily the best horse in the race. So how do you work out before the race which horse will get the easiest run in transit, and be fit and ready to sprint home the final 200m to victory?

We have all heard the old addage from Keith Noud,

"There is only one good barrier (barrier 1), and they get progressively worse"

We have all heard Alan Thomas on Sky Channel continually bleating,

"They just don't win from out there"

However, despite these utterings, every Saturday afternoon we see a horse start favourite even though it is starting from an outside barrier. Why do punters continually ignore the most simple of decisions when assessing a race? Oh, it is the best horse in the race is it? Oh, it has no weight on it's back, has it? Oh, it's got Beadman/Oliver/Harvey/Scriven on it has it? None of these, nor any other positives help when it comes to drawing a bad barrier.

Firstly, what is a bad barrier? Any barrier out side barrier 9 in any race is a bad barrier. Look at the size of the field, and any barrier outside half the field size, is a bad barrier. That is, if the field size is 12, anything outside barrier 6 would be considered a poor draw. Look at how far to the first turn in the race, and the shorter the distance, the less chance you horse has of getting into a good position. If there is less than 250m to the first turn, you really shouldn't be on anything drawn outside 4 or 5. sure, sometimes they will get in from 7 or 8, but plenty of luck or extremely good horsemanship is required for that. And remember, with the eveness of the fields these days, you need everything to go right for your horse to win.

Now, let's examine what happens to a horse starting from what we consider a poor barrier. There are only 3 alternatives for the jockey.

1. Hook the horse back to the rear, give him a cosy run, and hope you get luck in the straight.

2. Burn out of the barrier, get to the front on the rails, give the horse a breather, and hope he has something left for the finish.

3. Ease across gradually, and live in hope that a few go so quickly up front, a perfect passage to the fence will miraculously appear, and you can slot in for an easy run.

Now, how often do any of these perfect situations occur? We can assure you, extremely rarely. Let's examine what really happens in these situations

1. The jockey hooks the horse at barrier rise and heads straight for the inside. A couple of things can happen here. There could be 2 or 3 other jockeys with the same idea, especially if there is deemed to be a lot of speed in the race. It is not impossible to imagine, that 2 other horses on the inside ease back as well, and you are trapped 3 deep and last coming to the first turn, and your horse will not win from there. If indeed the jockey is able to get to the inside to get an easy run, there is now a wall of horses in front of him. Only two possibiliteis are open to the jockey now. He either has to ride for luck, and hope in vain the heavens open and the perfect run appears from nowhere, and take the needle eye opening to surge through to win the race. And how often does this happen? Again rarely. The other option to the jockey last and on the inside, is to take off early, say at the 600m, try to circle the field 4-5 wide, and hope his horse has Gunsynd like courage and keeps coming in the straight to win. Again, how often do we see this happen. Again, rarely. Only good horses are able to achieve either of these outcomes, and with the eveness of racing, there is not that bigger gap between protaginists in most races.

2. Bang, the gates crash open, and like a bolt of lightning, your jockey surges your horse out of the gates and within 200m he is on the fence and in the lead. One of two things will happen. Either the horse, so sturred up from being urged out of the gates, he won't settle and will either open up a huge lead or over race when the jockey tries to restrain him. Whichever happens, the horse is gone at the top of the straight finishes well back in the field. And, what if, when the jockey sools the horse out fo the barrier, he finds there is 2-3 other jockeys doing exactly the same thing, trying to get to the lead on the fence. From an outside barrier, your horse is now up attacking for the lead by 3 wide into the first turn. In this instance, your horse is gone before even getting to the straight.

3. It has no influence in this case, whether the field is large or small. If you ride for luck, and try to ease across and get in, it just won't happen. As any other hop worth his salt, will not allow you to get in. The other jockeys want you out 3-4 wide, especially if you are on a favourite. And what happens to the horse trapped 3-4 wide for the entire trip? It drops out before the turn and is a spent force.

And in all these circumstances, which horse wins the race? The horse who allowed the speedsters to go silly early, and took the cushy sit in behind them. The horse who drew barrier 1 or 2, got to the fence easily and didn't have a huge wall of horses in front of him to negotiate. The horse who hugged the rails all the way and didn't go around a horse. In other words, the horse who had the best barrier, was well weighted and well ridden, the horse who had the best run in the race.

The horse who gets the best run in the race, will usually win the race. And it is nigh on impossible to get the best run in the race from a wide barrier.

So please, we implore you, when assessing form, remember the most important factor there is. The barrier draw. Don't back a horse from a barrier outside 9. Don't back a horse drawn outside the middle of the field. Try to back horses drawn inside 4 or 5. If you do, even if your horse is not the best horse in the race, it may well get the best run and still win. And assess the distance to the first turn in the race, and give yourself an idea of how far your horse actually has to get in.

We hope this assists your punting, as horses drawn bad barriers rarely win. And if they do win, every single occurrance in the race has to go their way.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

Patience & Discipline

2007-02-11T08:53:00.000+10:00

We have had a pretty quiet time since our last post. There have only been 6 selections for our members, 3 of which have won. Currently our winning strike rate is 48.57% with an average winning price of $2.76, giving us a profit on invesment at level stakes of 34.02%.

Yesterday PASS members were treated to information regarding a very good 5yo mare who we predicted would win a Group 3 race at Caulfield. Her name was Coniston Gem, and she didn't let followers down and won impressively at the excellent odds of $4.10.

It is appropriate at this time to raise a very important issue when it comes to punting, and trying keep on the positive side of the leger. Over the past two weeks, there have been some very tough meetings, large and even fields, making it very tough for punters.

Now one of the biggest mistakes punters make, is having too many bets. It would have been very easy over the past couple of weeks for us to back a couple of horses every day, just for the sake of having a bet. And what would then happen, is that these bets, which would not have been good things, just hopeful bets, these horses would lose. And what happens when you hit a losing streak? Most punters will chase their money and have more bets. And that leads to backing even more losers. The more losers you back, the more money you lose, and the more the punter wants to chase his money and try to regain the losses. In the end, the punter is so far behind, not even a 50/1 winner will get him out of the hole he has dug for himself.

We have all been in similar situations. Down the pub on a Saturday afternoon. We had 3 good things for the afternoon, and only intended backing those 3 horses. The first one got trapped wide from an awkward barrier, and was beaten a nostril after hitting the front with 100m to go. Gee that was unlucky. The second one had a beautiful run in transit, third on the fence, but as the runs came around the outside, he was stuck on the fence an didn't get clear running until the final 50m. He flashed home to finish 3rd, a certainty beaten. Oh well, the third bet will get us out of trouble. Well, that is until, the 3kg claiming apprentice who was riding him, took off before acceptances dashed well clear before the field got into the straight, and was left a sitting duck for the run on horses and dropped out to finish a dismal 5th. Now we are dirty on the world. Bloody jockeys, they don't have a clue do they. And we have a quick sup of our 5th schooner and then grab for the form guide for a get out bet. And when the first get out bet we plucked from our semi drunken stupor runs second, we grab the beer in one hand, and the form guide in the other searching desparately for a winner. With wall to wall racing these days, ability to bet on anything until after midnight every day, we could lose the house by the time we stagger out of the pub. It doesn't seem to matter that the hours of form study the night before only came up with the original 3 horses, and we didn't actually like any other horses winning chances on the day. But hey, that was then when we had all the information at our finger tips, and had been concentrating totally on finding a winner. Now we are half tanked, have to appear to our mates we know what we are doing, we'll show them who the best punter is, won't we?

Okay, so how can we avoid this ever spiralling flood of money streaming out of our wallets?

Firstly, don't drink and punt. Not even on social occasions. Either go to the races or the pub to drink, or go there to punt. If you are drinking and socialising, and you only like 3 horses on the day, place your bets before you get to the venue, and make sure you have no more money to punt with for the afternoon after the three horses have raced. And if they do all lose, make sure you are with a group of mates who will not lend you any money. Neither a borrower nor a lender be.

Even if you are not at the pub or the races, and under the influence of alcohol, there is still always a burning desire inside us all to recoup any losses late in the day. And this is where patience & discipline comes into play. They are ambiguous objects you have to learn, and teach yourself to perform every day you are on the punt. You have to keep asking yourself, "Do you really want to win punting"? If the answer is no, I just want to have an interest and a bit of fun, then stop reading now, as nothing I write here will ever be of any use to you. If the answer is "Yes, I want to be a winning punter, I am sick of losing all the time", then we may be able to assist.

Patience & discipline is something you learn and teach your brain to react the right way in certain circumstances. For example, you see a horse with outstanding form, head and shoulders above the rest of the field in a 1550m race at Canterbury. You think, you bloody beauty, a good thing, how much do I have in my wallet. You check the barrier draw, and you see 11 next to the horses name. Now that in itself should top you wasting your money, but then you see the jockey, A Nobody (claiming 4kg). Surely that will stop you wasting you hard earned? Apprentice, unknown jockey, outside barrier from the worst starting point in Australian horse racing? Stop, move on there are other races. Make it a habit, every time you see a horse drawn in a double figure barrier, stop, move on to another race. Make it so much of a habit, your brain does not even stop and think about it in a months time. They don't win from out that wide, and if they do, you need double figure odds to justify you having a bet for value. Try this, try it for a week or so, and you will see the difference it makes. You won't even look at anything drawn wide, and this alone will assist your punting to profit.

After you eliminate backing horses from wide draws, start on jockeys. Write a list of jockeys you like, and ones you don't. When you come across a horse you like with A. Nobody on board, move on immediately, don't even think about it. Again, after a week or so, it will become habit that you will never again consider a horse with A. Nobody riding it.

Then try something else, say races of distances under 1200. Look at the distance of the race, if it is an 800m race at Ipswich, move on, forget it, plenty of other races to look at. Again, after a week or so, it will become habit, and we assure you it will assist you in becoming a more profitable punter.

Being the professional punter that you are, regularly research your staistics. Seek out the losers and work out why they lost. Find a pattern, say, every horse you backed last month in races longer than 1600m all lost. So, this month, don't even consider races with a distance longer than 1600m. Don't even look at them. You will find that in time, it will become a basic instinct not to look at them seriously, and not to bet in them. This will certainly assist you to become a more profitable punter.

The other important fact here is that you don't have to answer to anyone except yourself, how good or bad a punter you really are. Keeping your strict records as you do, you know how much you win or lose every day, week, month or year. 99% of people you talk to, will not believe you consistently win anyway, so why spruik the fact, and try to show them you are a profitable punter? Those 99% believe you lose, so trying to prove to them you win every week, will only make you try to hard, have too many bets, causing you to back more losers. Winning punters have fewer bets. FACT !! Keep telling yourself that, and it will indelibly be etched in your brain forever. And show the people you are with that youa re patient and disciplined, and that alone will sow a seed in their mind, that you are indeed a profitable punter.

It is extremely difficult to teach your brain patience & discipline in punting. However, what you can teach your brain is habit. Make rules, make them habitual, and you won't even think twice about them. You will then teach your brain and in turn yourself, to be patient and disciplined. Most punters are weak, especially those who have a drink while they punt. And the image of a big win, especially when on the drink, looks an ever exciting prospect.

You can teach your brain and yourself patience and discipline. Make it a habit, and it will come naturally. Don't be influenced by others or what they think. Allow them to be influenced by you, the patient and disciplined one.

We have a good thing for today at Colac. If you are interested in receiving our information daily, then please contact us here at profselections@austarnet.com.au

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

Incentate Wins The Time Honoured Hanging Rock Cup

2007-01-28T08:59:00.000+10:00

PASS members were celebrating heartily on Australia Day after Incentate saluted in the time honoured Hanging Rock Cup. This race is held every Australia Day and crowds flock to the small Victorian town of Hanging Rock for their big day of the year. Unfortunately, the 2007 version had to be transferred to Kyneton due to the drought and the recent bushfires, but this had no effect on attracting a huge attendance.

Apprentice Logan McGill rode a beautifully judged race on Incentate, allowing the gelding to settle well back in the field after a hot pace was set in the early stages. McGill then showed judgement well beyond his years by timing his run to perfection, and while the favourite Cape Danger hit the front at the top of the straight, he had no answer for the powerful finshing burst of Incentate. Incentate was heavily supported on course, firming from $12 into $8, and paid a $7.50 top tote around Australia.

Incentate was exclusively selected as the best of the day to PASS members on Australia Day. Members were also informed that likely favourite Cape Danger, would flounder in the closing stages of the 1850m race and was a good risk.

In our last article, we alluded to our losing selections being horses to follow at their subsequent runs. Yesterday at Rosehill, The Jackal, who was selected at his previous run, blew his rivals away in the last race paying over $4 for the win on all totes. He was not well ridden the day we were on him, and the run should have been overlooked. He made amends yesterday.

Plenty more winners to look forward this week, and we have already informed our members of the good thing of the day today. If you would like to become a member and receive selections such as Incentate exclusively, please contact us at profselections@austarnet.com.au

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

Australia Day

2007-01-26T08:38:00.000+10:00

Our selection service is merrily rolling along providing plenty of winners for our members. We have made 62 selections so far, for 30 winners, a current winning strike rate of 48.39%. The average winning price is $2.61 giving us an profit on investment at level stakes of 26.30%.

Now, although these statistics look most impressive, our aim here is to provde a winning strike rate of over 50%. Some may think this is pie in the sky stuff, but it is what we achieve each and every punting year, since we started keeping records 12 years ago. So our socks are well and truely pulled up now, and more winners will start to flow.

One most interesting statistic that we have not covered as yet, is the record of our losing selections, at their subsequent runs. There has been 21 losing selection that have raced again after being given to our members. Of these 10 have won, a winning strike rate of 47.6 %. One of these horses, Destina, has in fact won 3 times since she was selected here, climaxing in a win last night at Moonee Valley paying over $10 on the tote. Other notable winners have been Bright Encounter ($4.25), Our Nefertit ($10), Test Fire, Amici Forever & Lu Court.

Now, why would this be such a valuable statistic, and why are so many winning? The selections we provide are always horses who are fit and in form. Most of the selections that lose, fail due to an incident in running in the race, a poorly judged ride, or some extenuating circumstance unforseen prior to the race. Therefore, plenty of the losing selections will peform as well, or even improve at their next starts. Of course there are a few beaten on their merits, and these are the ones that don't go in to win after we selected them. However, if you can attain, a winning strike rate of over 47%, then this is a statistic of which you should take heed.

There have been a couple of horses in recent weeks, that were desparately unlucky when selected here. And as yet, they have not raced since. These include Masai Pride & Boy John, so these two should be considered at their next outing. There is also a South Australian horse named Fancy Force, who was a tragedy beaten at Penola the day selected here. He has had one run since, but that was at Mt Gambier on a heavy track (his first try on a rain affected track) and he ran a creditbale second. A win for Fancy Force is very close indeed.

So if you are still having trouble finding a winner, then maybe you could do worse than to follow our losing tips at their next starts. Where else can you obtain a winning strike rate of over 47%, for free.

Have a great Australia Day everyone. Enjoy it the best way you know how. We have a good thing today given out to all our members, if you would like to know which horse it is, pelase contact us on profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will organise to forward it to you.

In the mean time, good luck and profitable punting to all.

2007 - A New Year

2007-01-03T10:47:00.000+10:00

Happy New Year to all our readers. We trust everyone had an enjoyable and festive Christmas and New Year.

We were lucky enough to provide our members with two New Years Day presents, when both Publishing and West River Charley won on Monday. These winners take our statistics to 23 winners from a total of 45 selections since we commenced. Running with an average winning price of $2.61, gives our members a profit at level stakes of 33.40%. And there are plenty more winner to be found in 2007.

Do you make New Years resolutions? Although far from perfect, a New Years resolution is not something we generally contemplate. Mainly because it is very easy to make a resolution, and keep it going for a short period of time. However in the long term, old habits usually win over and things return to where they were before January 1. How many times have we sworn to give up smoking, give up chocolates, stop swearing, or give up the grog as our New Years resolution. Doesn't work, does it? Far easier to try to cut down gradually, than remove a major chunk of our life instantaneously.

The best way to make a New Years resolution work, is to make one that doesn't require a huge lifestyle change, like giving up smoking. Something small like, emptying the rubbish bin every morning. Or ringing your brother or sister once a month. Simple, small things are far easier to change and adapt to than a huge lifestyle change like giving up drinking.

And what about your punting? What really irks you about your punting that you could include in a New Years resolution. Keep stringent records of every bet? Use a staking plan instead of betting wild and woolly amounts on different bets? Don't back favourites that start shorter than even money. Seriously, how difficult would it be to apply any of those to your punting?

How about some of these.

Don't back horses first up from a spell, unless they are double figure odds. Why, because only 1 in 9 horses first up from a spell will win, so you must ensure you are getting the correct value for your money.

Don't back horses who start from a barrier outside the centre of the field. That is, if there are 12 horses in the race, don't back a horse drawn outside barrier 6. Why, because barriers are the single biggest influence on a horse race in this day and age, and the majority of winners start from inside barriers. We will explain this further in a future article.

Don't back maiden winners jumping to a Class 2 race or better. They can win, but their winning strike rate is worse than 1 in 10, so again you must ensure you get the right odds.

Don't bet in maidens, especially if there is a lot of first starters or horses first up from a spell.

Don't take more money to the pub on Saturday afternoon than you can afford to lose on the punt.

Do you have one? Is there something you do when punting, and when you do it the horse always loses? Write it down, and make it your New Years resolution not to do it in 2007. Keep a list if you like of the horses that fall into this category, and see how many actual win. Whatever it might be, keep it simple and achievable. I assure you, you will feel much better about your punting if you change something that gives you more money in your pocket.

Monitor what you do and record the results, and in 3 months time review it. Have you achieved what you set out to achieve? Was it successful? Can it be improved on?

We can all improve our punting and our results. It is just a matter of spending time to research our methods and finding the good things and bad things we do. Improve the good things, remove the bad things. And something as simple as that, could be your New Years resolution.

If you would like to become a member of our successful team, please contact us here at profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will assist you to join.

In the meantime, good luck and profitable punting to all.

Utzon Wins Villiers Stakes

2006-12-24T08:16:00.000+10:00

The Les Bridge trained Utzon yesterday made light work of a big weight to win the time honoured Villiers Stakes at Royal Randwick. Brilliantly ridden by Len Beasley, who took every advantage of barrier 1, Utzon finished strongly in the final 150m to win narrowly but convincingly.

Utzon was exclusively selected to PASS members yesterday morning. Our members were told that despite the big weight, Utzon had a class edge on all his rivals and would win. Utzon paid $6.90 top tote around the country, and put plenty of Christmas cheer into the pockets of our members.

PASS has now given out 37 selections to our members, of which 20 have been winners, with 13 other placegetters. The average winning price of these runners has been $2.68 giving members a return on investment at level stakes of 44.85%.

If you would like to enjoy the success of being a successful and profitable punter, then please contact us here profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will show you how to become a part of the action.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

A Very Successful Weekend For PASS Members

2006-12-17T17:21:00.000+10:00

PASS members were given a total of 6 selections over this weekend. Four of these selections won, one ran second and one ran third. So a very successful and profitable weekend.

PASS members were informed this morning that Beat The Traffic in Race 6 at Ballarat would be extremely hard to beat. All his dangers had drawn wide barriers and PASS members were informed this would give Beat The Traffic the gun run in the race. The race panned out exactly to plan, and Beat The Traffic stormed home to win comfortably. Top tote was $5.90, and the very kind people at IAS paid us $6.13.

The other three winners this weekend supplied to our members were Hunters Host, Snipers Bullet & Imagining.

As we indicated in our last article, patience is required before you find a good priced winner. Keep backing the good things, and the juicy odds winner will arrive in time. Slowly build your bank and you will be rewarded.

This takes our statistics to 29 selections overall, for 15 winners, 6 seconds and one third. That is a winning strike rate of 51.7%, along with an average winning price of $2.66. This gives our members a profit on investment at level stakes of 37.52%.

And, we have a good thing for tomorrow at Pakenham. If you would like to be informed of tomorrow's winner as well as all the information supplied to our members, please contact us here at PASS profselections@austarnet.com.au and you can enjoy the winning feeling.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

PASS Statistics Update

2006-12-17T10:21:00.000+10:00

We have been operating now for three weeks and it is probably appropriate to complete an overview of our statistics thus far.

There have been 26 selections in this period, for 13 winners, 5 seconds and a third. That gives us a 50% winning Strike Rate. Our average winning price has been $2.49 giving us a Return On Investment 24.5% using level stakes.

After a blazing start nailing 5 winners in our first 5 selections, and 6 from the first 9, winners have been a little hard to find. Our goal here is to maintain a winning strike rate of over 50%, with an average winning price of over $2.50, thus ensuring member a consistent profit rate of over 25% at level stakes. This profit will improve if a more benficial staking plan is used.

Although we are close to being within the range of our goals, there is always improvement to be found. Our last 4 winners have all been $2.00 or under. Now this assists the winning strike rate but is a major detraction to our average winning price. So we will be attempting to find a few winners at good each way odds for our members.

We will continue to select the good things, however what we will endeavour to do is select a value runner as often as possible. As always, selections will be horses that are fit and in form. We will not select horses first up from a spell, nor will we select horses that drawn a poor barrier. Selections will always be trained by a well known, in form trainer, and will be ridden by jockeys who make fewer mistakes than than most. Our selections will also be for horses that are experienced at the distance and track conditions of the day. And we will not be making selections on rain affected tracks.

Yesterday we had three selections for two winners, Imagining & Snipers Bullet. Both were short odds but lived up to that expectation. We have given out three selections for our members for todays racing, one will be at nice each way odds.

We welcome any feedback from either existing members or potential members.

profselection@austarnet.com.au

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

How To Approach Your Punting

2006-12-08T08:34:00.000+10:00

Following on from our article earlier in the week that looked at the basic selection process, what we would like to do today is look at what should be done before even having a bet is considered.

A basic approach should be very organised. You must be comfortable with three important facets. Where you are going to place your bets to get the best value, bankroll management & recording your statistics.

Let's take bankroll management first because you can't have a bet if you don't have any money. As indicated in our original article, you should only bet what you can afford to lose. So work out what is a comfortable bank for you to start with and keep that bank separate from all your day to day money. The best way to this is to open an account with an agency. That way not only is your punting money out of the way, it is also not easy to get at to spend on other things. You then have to organise a staking plan that suits your bank.

Okay so let's look at a few examples. Say you are comfortable with placing $1,000 in your punting bank. You then must work out what percentage of that bank you are comfortable to bet with. Most professionals bet around 2-2.5% of their bank for each bet. PASS bets 5% on each bet. If you use this level staking plan at 5% it will take you 20 losers to run out of money. Now, if you have 20 successive losers, then you have a major issue with your selection process, not with your staking plan. PASS usually has a losing streak of between 5 and 8 losers once a month, longest losing streak on record is 13, so 20 bets covers this comfortably. So we suggest your start with a set bank, and punt 5% at a level stakes and monitor this after a month and see how you are fairing. You can then tweak it a little either way in percentage, or alter the staking plan a little. PASS takes 5% of the starting bank every day, and bets that stake on every runner that day. The next day we calculate 5% of the new bank and use that as our wager for the day. When we get to 10% above our starting bank, we withdraw funds down to the original bank, and commence the process again. So, if we started with $1,000, when we get to $1,100, we withdraw $100 and go back to betting $20 per bet on the next day. This way you have plenty to cover any losing streak that hits you, and they will hit we promise. And you also know exactly when to withdraw funds so as not to ruin your punting bank.

There are various staking plans that can be used. Some are quite cut throat in that you increase your bets until you back a winner and get in front. You require an extremely good winning strike rate for these staking plans, a strike rate of well over 50%. You can increase in increments of 5% or even 10%, but if a long losing streak hits, these are fraught with danger and your bank will diminish very quickly.

One of the simplest staking plans is to start with say, $1,000. Bet a level stake of 5% until you reach $1,500. Then increase you stake to 5% of $1500 and bet that amount until you reach $2,000, then increase you stake to 5% of $2,000 and bet that until you get to $2500. When you reach $3,000, double your original bank, withdraw $2,000 and start again. As long as you consistently win and your winning strike rate is high, this is a practicle and conservative way to profit.

Now we know what we have as a starting bank & a staking plan, the next item to put into place is a stringent recording system for keeping your statistics. Every bet must be recorded. There are no "fun" bets. Every bet must be compatible with your staking plan, and each bet must come out if your punting bank only. This should make it easy for you to record every bet. Record where the bet was, how much you outlayed, where the horse finished, what it paid if it won, and how much you won on the bet. At PASS we complete a daily total of outgoings and incomings. And at the end of the month, we tally up to work out profit/loss for that month. We work on the racing calendar year and show profit/loss for every year. Use the calendar year if you are more comfortable with that, or even the financial year. Doesn't matter which, the important thing is to record every bet, and know exactly how you are fairing at any stage of a day, month or year.

We started recording our bets over 15 years ago, and in all seriousness, it is the single most important factor that turned our punting around into profit. If you don't know how many winners or losers you are backing, you don't know if you are a good punter or a poor one. And I assure you all, most punters are losers, not only don't know know it, but certainly will never admit to it. Recording bets does not help you back winners, but it does tell you more about your punting than anything else will. You can tell how much you outlayed for a certain period, how much you returned, how many winners you backed, and how many losers. What your average winning price was and what you Profit On Investment was. All these pieces of information will help you adjust your punting so you can show a profit. You will be able to see when losing streaks occur, and what to do to stop them. Most losing punters find they bet more when losing to try to recoup losses. When a losing streak occurs, maybe you have to reduce your bets until your selection process gets itself back on track. If you don't record every bet, you will never know how long the losing streak is, how badly it is affecting your bank and how to adjust to rectify the situation. If you have every staistic at your fingertips, you will be able to identify what is going wrond, and what you have to do to turn it around.

Now you have a bank, and you have an excell spread sheet or exercise book to record your bets, where are you going to place your bets to maximise your profits. Most people head off to the local TAB where they take out from 14.5% of every bet before a return is even thought about. So every winner you back, you are down 14.5% of your outlay before the race is run. If you play trifectas, quinella or quaddies, the takeout is closer to 20%. PASS would lose every year if we lost 20% before the race was even run. So how do we overcome the TAB takeouts? We use alternatives to TAB's.

The best way to beat the totes is to go to the track and use bookmakers. They will give you a fixed odds price, with no 14.5% or 20% takeout. If you can't get to the track, then the next best alternative is to use Corporate Bookies, or Betfair. There are plenty of corporate bookies that offer great deals. They offer fixed prices, starting prices, top fluctuations as wll as top tote odds. Some even offer an extra percentage on top of top tote prices, which gives the punter an added advantage. There are many corporate bookies, PASS predominantly uses IAS, Sportingbet and Centre Racing. However, Sportsbet, Austote & Betfair are all acceptable. One word of warning is to spread your bank around amongst several of them, because some bookies do close accounts of consistent winners. And if you do consistently win, make regular withdrawals.All these alternatives are easily accessible on the internet, please contact us here if you have difficulty finding any of them.

In summary, work out what you can afford to lose, and use that as a separate punting bank. Formulate a staking plan that suits yourself and your bank and stick to it rigidly. Record every bet, large, small, serious or fun and continue keep stringent statistics of all bets. And use alternative betting agencies to TAB's to reduce takeouts.

Now you are ready to start punting. You have a bank, you have a staking plan, you have the technology to record every bet, and you have accounts with organisations that will maximise your profits. All you need now is to find a few winners, and we will point everyone in the right direction in future articles.

If you would like more information on anything we have discussed here, staking plans, banks, recording statistics or alternative betting agencies send us an email to profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will be glad to assist further.

Good luck and profitable punting.

Imagining

2006-12-06T15:53:00.000+10:00

PASS members were treated to watching a very promising mare today at Sandown. Imagining gave nothing else a chance in race 2 after Michael Rodd gave the 4yo mare a lovely run behind the speed. He gave her full bore at the 400m and she sprinted past her rivals to win easing up by around 4 lengths. Corporate bookmakers were quite generous in paying top tote odds of $2.20. The win indicated Imagination is a mare with a lot of ability who will win better races than the one she contested today.

Imagining is by Flying Spur from Oaks winner Episode, so she is bred in the purple. She won over 1600m today, and she will be even better suited when she gets up over longer distances in the future.

Michael Rodd is enjoying a great association with the Lloyd Williams team in recent times. He is the stable rider now, and Imagining gave him an early riding/stable double after Embark won the first race comfortably at Sandown. Michael is a lovely bloke, and a very accomplished jockey, and we feel sure he will have continued success in Melbourne.

If you would like to stop imagining what it's like to back winners, then contact us here at PASS at profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will assist you to become a member. The best way to enjoy punting is to back winners, and we will provide the information necessary for you to achieve this.

Good luck and profitable punting.

Race Day Selection Process

2006-12-04T09:51:00.000+10:00

Last week we covered some basic standard rules to adopt before we start to punt. This week we will cover the important facets of form study we take into consideration when making a race day selection. Following this we will break them all down into separate categories, and concentrate on them one by one in indiviual articles.

Without trying to state the obvious time should be spent looking at:-

Type of race
Recent form
Form over todays distance
Form at todays track
Jockey, Trainer & Barrier
Class of the race
Weight being carried
Pace of the race
Stewards Reports/Videos
Track & weather conditions
Possible track bias

Firstly, an accurate form guide that gives all the information that is required to make a sound assessment. There are plenty of free form guides available on the internet for Australian horse racing. The more preferable ones are supplied by sites such as Expertform, Racenet, RSB (Victorian Racing site), AAP Racing & Sports, Queensland Racing & WATC Racing Information Service. All provide an adequate coverage, and all are free of charge. Publications such as The Sportsman are also excellent form guides and provide almost all information required.

Basically what we are doing when we assess the form of a race is to predict the outcome of events. And to do this we require as much information about every aspect of each runner, the track, the weather conditions etc to be able to perform this task. It is not easy to predict the outcome, but it can be done with reasonable accuracy if time is taken to look at all aspects. What we find, is that it is not too difficult to find plenty of winners, it is restricting the amount of losers which is the hard part.

With so much racing around the country in this day & age, it would be easy to go broke very quickly betting on every horse race that is covered by TAB's and corporate bookies. Therefore the next most important issue is which races to concentrate on. The best races to bet on are ones where the form is well exposed and most or all the horses entered have recent form to assess. So we usually discount maiden races, and races over distances of less than 1200m because we find too many horses either having their first start in a race, or first up from a spell. We also rarely bet on races at distances further than 1800m, as it can be very hard to assess the pace of the race, and horses can jump grades very quickly in distance races without surprising. We also look unfavourably on races restricted to Fillies & Mares, as some of these equines can be prone to put in a poor run here and there. So predominantly, we look at Class 1 races or better, over distances of 1200m -1800m. Now that stops plenty of bets each week for a starter. If there are still too many races for consideration, concentrate on one state, and that state only for a while until comfortable the extra races to look at wone be a burden on time resources.

When assessing the form it is imperative to look closely at every runner in the race, not just the first 3-4 in the weights. It is very easy to overlook a horse who last three runs have been 907, but there may be some extenuating circumstances as to why the horse performed poorly. The horse may have been racing over unsuitable distances, drawn wide barriers, been ridden poorly, copped a bad check, or even all of the above. Look at every horses form, but in seriousness, only consider those with solid recent form, or solid form over todays distance or at todays track.

Unless a horse is in outstanding form, concentrate punting on well known, experienced trainers and jockeys who consistently win races. Look for trainers & jockeys with good winning strike rates, expecially good winning strike rates at todays track and distance. And winning combinations like Hawkes/Beadman, Moody/Nolen, Freedman/Oliver should also be taken into consideration. We keep a list of trainers & jockeys who we will back, and those we won't. Stick to the list rigidly, unless you see a marked improvement in one on the banned list, or a degeneration of one on the positive list. The better more experienced trainers place their horses more favourably, and the better more experienced jockeys make fewer mstakes during the running of a race. Trainers & jockeys are like horses, they have good runs and losing runs which punters must be aware of. Some trainers, like a Paul Cave, Jim Leek jnr, Eric Musgrove, are far better trainers of stayers than sprinters, so you may have to have another list to make allowances for these types of trainers.

And we don't back horses starting from wide barriers. Usually outside about 6 or 7, but that is determined by the number of runners in the race. Smaller fields, say up to 6 or 7, barriers should play a lesser role, but in fields of 18-20, barriers are very important, especially if there is only a short run to the first turn. So be aware of all track maps of every track punting is intended.

Ensure the horse being considered is in the right class of race, and if not, whether any weight advantage or disadvantage is applied. Horses can win out of their class with a lower weight, but they may also be incapable of performing well in their own class if they too much weight. Big strong horses can carry big weights, whereas smaller not so robust horses have trouble with bigger weights. If a horse has carried weight to victory in the past, it is reasonable to assume he can do it again. As a rule, however, it is rare for us to back a horse that is more than 4kg over the limit weight. There are exceptional circumstances in that regard and it is not a rule of thumb, but should be used a guide, especially in distance races. Try to ignore horses jumping from a maiden win to Class 2, 3 or higher, they rarely win unless they are exceptional.

Always have a picture in your mind (or even draw a diagram if that is easier) as to how the race will be run. Who will lead, will there be pace from outside barriers, will a couple drop back from wide barriers? Plenty of questions can be asked, but get a clear picture in your mind that your selection is going to get the run needed to win the race. If the horse gets a long way back, will there anough pace on for it to run on strongly? But most importantly, which horse will get the easiest run in the race. In behind the speed, waiting to pounce in the straight, that is where you want your horse to be. With horse racing so even these days, luck in running, and getting the cushiest run determines the outcome of most races. Make sure your selection is the one who can get the gun run.

Try to read Stewards Reports to see which runners in races had no luck at their previous outing, and could improve today. Obtain videos too if possible and watch past races. See who was impressive and won easing up without being pressuered by the jockey. Which horses didn't get a clear run in the straight and should have finished closer, which horse had a wide run from a poor alley whose run should be forgotten. And which horse had the easy run in behind the speed, but was not good enough to win. Watching videos, and reading Stewards Reports will give you a much clearer picture of the real chances in todays race.

Arguably, the most important facet is weather & track conditions, and any track bias. It is very rare for us to punt on tracks worse than dead. Form is all over the place, especially if all or most horses have been performing recently on rain affected tracks. Make sure the predominant weather pattern for the day is known. It may be Fine/Good at 8:30am in the morning, however if a storm hits at midday, 25mm of rain is dumped on the course, then this changes the perpsective of every race on the program. Preferably, place your bets as late as possible so you are aware of any change in track conditions, but is this is not possible, then be aware if a storm or rain due. Most courses you can reasonably assess prior to a meeting if the track favours on pace horses or run on horses. Tracks like Randwick, Rosehill, Eagle Farm & Flemington are usually considered very fair and horses cna win from anywhere. But some city tracks, like Canterbury, Moonee Valley or Warwick Farm, can assist on pace runners. And a lot of country tracks with short straights, certainly play toward fron runners. Again, seek out track maps and know the layouts.

Track bias is a controversial aspect of todays horse racing. Most course curators deny it exists, even some commentators refuse to admit it exists. Believe us, it does, and always will due to the high volume of racing in this day and age. Watch a few races before having a bet if you are unsure. The best races to assess any bias, are races over distances between 1200m and 1600m. 1000m dashes usually lean to leaders winning in any case, and races over 2000m or more usually lean themselves to back markers depedning on the pace of the race. So be aware of this when assessing any bias on the day.

So there is certainly plenty to think about when assessing a race. Allocate plenty of time, don't rush your assessments, look at every runner & every aspect, and utilise every bit of information you can find. We will dissect these facets individually in more detail as the weeks progress.

You can never know too much, and you can always learn more.

Feedback on these articles are welcome to profselections@austarnet.com.au

Good luck and profitable punting.

Weekend Washup

2006-12-04T08:52:00.000+10:00

A pretty poor result for PASS members over the weekend. All together we provided five selections for one winner and one second. There were also two "Horses To Follow" who raced, both finished third.

Of our selections, only Street Smart would be worth backing again. She got too far back in the field, probably one of Jim Byrne's more poorly judged ride. Byrne gave the mare little chance of winning, as she was still about 8 lengths behind the leaders on straightening. She finsihed strongly, although never looking a winning possibility, to be beaten around a length. A good effort with the weight she carried.

I would not suggest we back any of the other horses we selected again, unless they improve dramatically at future runs.

The only outstanding performance I saw over the weekend was at Moonee Valley on Friday night. In race 3 a horse from the Tony Vasil stable debuted named Lucky Secret. The 3yo gelding burnt out of the barriers and led easily, and was never looked like being run down. He won being eased down by 4 lengths in slick time and earmarked himself as a potential group winner. He will probably be very short in his next couple of runs, but place him in your black books and in 6-12 months time, we might see him at juicy odds in a nice race, where he will be quite backable.

Good luck and profitable punting.

Evan Robinson
profselections@austarnet.com.au

Ratings Based Handicap Racing

2006-12-01T10:54:00.000+10:00

From today, December 1, 2006, Ratings Based Handicap races are being introduced on a trial basis in NSW and Victoria. Basically this means, every horse will be allocated a rating after every run and will be able to be entered into RB races that their rating is included.

What it means is, an older horse that is out of form, will lose ratings points and go down in grades to give him an opportunity to win another race. An overview of this can be seen at the following URL:-

http://www.risa.com.au/Rating_Based_Info.htm

You can also obtain specific information about both NSW and Victorian RB programming from this web page.

So, what does it all mean. Especially for the poor punter who is always trying to find that elusive winner. To be perfectly frank, I am not too sure, and will have to watch races very closely over the next few months to ascertain if a distinct pattern or change in performances is occurring. We will give a few thoughts here for readers to ponder.

The main reason for this change, is to increase field sizes, and thus increasing TAB betting turnover. More TAB betting turnover means more money for the race clubs, and I certainly do not begrudge them that. I do however question the motivation that the only reason for change is to increase betting turnover.

What will hapen in these races, is you will see an older open class handicapper, racing against young up & coming lower class horses. What also may happen, is if a certain horse has reached his mark, he cannot get out of his current grade because he is just not good enough. So the trainer will hope the horse gets beaten by big margins to hopefully decrease his rating so he can get him into a more suitable race. Maybe the horse will be encouraged not to perform on his merits in the hope his ratings will be decreased.

So the washup of this will be that some beaten margins as published in form guides, will show a horse was beaten, say 10 lengths at his most recent start, when the beaten margin probably should have been 3 lengths. Now this is going to turn upside down ratings and form predictability for punters. It will also provide form reversals that are totally unpredictable. And what punters want is integrity & predictability so they can back winners. Successful punters are successful because they are able to predict with regular accuracy the result of the race. If they don't have accurate facts before the race, predicting the outcome will be a far more difficult task.

Attempting to predict form reversals is fraut with danger. Punters who back horses with form 000 in the vain hope they back a 100/1 winner are just giving away money. Most punters prefer to assess form and line each runner's form up and reach an accurate conclusion as to the result. Hong Kong use a ratings based handicap system for race programming, and the form reversals there are nothing short of sensational. We have grave fears NSW & Victorian racing may head in a similar direction.

Field sizes have always been an issue of ours when trying to predict a result. To state the obvious, it is much easier to predit a result of a horse race with 6 runners, as opposed to a horse race with 18 runners. Obviously because, barriers will play a far lesser role, as will luck in running and the jockeys ability to secure the bets run. So with larger field sizes, it would be fair to say right now, PASS will be having less bets than before. Especially in the embryonic stages of this new system while we assess the races in question. And if field sizes do increase and remain consistently larger, then we will be having far less bets in the long term.

Another major point is how accurate are the ratings that are being given to each horse by the relevant authorities? There are hundreds of organisations selling ratings for horse racing. I have access to a few, although I don't use all of them as a base for my selections. On one race, 3 or 4 different ratings services can all come up a different result. Now I am knocking them, but which one do you believe? And why is the racing authorities ratings going to be more accurate than others?

And what about skull duggery? A trainer giving a horse a few "dead" runs to get it down in the ratings. A jockey easing up on a horse at the 200m so it gets beaten by a big margin to assist it geting down in the ratings. Authorities giving a trainer a favourable hearing and decreasing a horses ratings, or authorities taking a set against another trianer because of a past misdemeanor and increasing his horses ratings to make it hard for him. There are hundreds of similar situations if you think about it. Oh, sorry, none of that actually happens in the real world, does it?

At PASS, we are professional punters. We attempt to predict the outcome of horse races to make a profit, and we try to assist our members to achieve this. It is possible to consistently predict the outcome of races, and show a profit. But to do this you need to know as many facts as you can get your hands on to make these assessments as accurate as humanly possible. And combining all the rlevant facts will assist you to successfully predict the outcome of a horse race. This new system looks like it will not only make it more difficult to predict results, but with larger fields sizes make it more difficult for horse to win the right race.

We will watch with great interest over the coming months how this progresses and report back here. I urge all members and readers to watch video replays of as many races as possible, keep a close track on results to see if a lot of long price winners salute in these races, or the favourites win, or well supported horse that have been set up for the race win. There will be a pattern.

However with so many unknowns, it is envisaged PASS members will be having fewer bets. And that is not what the authorities wanted when they first devised this new programming system. They want increased turnover, not decreased.

Don't forget, if you would like to become a part of the successful membership team here at PASS, drop us an email to profselections@austarnet.com.au and we will help you to obtain all the information required to become a winning punter.

Good luck and profitable punting.

Weekend Washup

2006-11-27T09:31:00.000+10:00

Well, the Wodonga Cup panned out as we predicted, except for the result. Diamond Cove got a beuatiful run just off the speed, and Elbrus was trapped 3 and 4 wide from his bad draw. Luke Nolen rode a perfect race on Diamond Cove, getting the clear run coming to the turn and giving the mare every chance to win the race. However Elbrus made light of work of the 5kg in weight he was giving Diamond Cove, and despite the wide trip, was far too good at the finish to win narrowly but convincingly. A great effort by Elbrus to win the way he did, most other horses would have faded after the run he had, but not Elbrus, he just kept coming. A city win would not surprise in the future for him. They spaced the others, and I doubt much form other than Elbrus will come out of the race. We won't be tipping Diamond Cove again, she had the run to win, but was beaten by the best horse on the day.

Horses to follow from the weekend.

Glenbawn Star will win a race in the city after his dynamic performance in winning at Kembla on Saturday, much to the delight of PASS members.

Wings Of Seraph will go through his grades in Brisbane. He has won 3 from 7 now, with 4 minor placings, and there is a nice race during the Brisbane winter carnival with his name on it. He came from a long way back to win on Saturday, but once given clear running, he was always going to win. Keep following him, he will win plenty more.

Good luck & profitable punting.

Punting Basics

2006-11-26T09:51:00.000+10:00

As we progress along the course of finding some winners, we will publish some articles to assist our members to enjoy their punting even more.

Punting is a relaxing entertainment and is made enjoyable by winning money. It is not pure luck or guesswork like lotteries, $1 scratchie tickets, poker machines or the roulette wheel at the local casino. You can make it like that if you wish, but you have no earthly chance of wining in the long term if you do.

The first basic philosophy of punting, is to only bet what you can afford to lose.

If you have $100 to play with every week, then stand to lose that and no more. If you get a collect, or even come out in front, it is a bonus. Never borrow money to punt with, and never use credit cards to supplement punting accounts. Even if you lose your $100, you will feel much more at ease with the world as you have only lost what is affordable. I assure you if you borrow money and lose, or deposit another $100 from your credit card and lose that as well, you will feel extremely sick in the stomach. This will have an adverse impacy on other areas of your life like your family and work, which are far more important than your leisure time. Your leisure time is time for enjoyment, not angst. If you leisure time uspets you, then this will negatively affect your entire life.

I have seen a miriad of people ploughing money into poker machines. They are evil. You cannot win consistently on them, they will alwys take your money in the long term. Every time I walk into a Club, I see dozens of people sitting mindlessly staring at the reels roll around and around, putting more money through. I see them running backwards and forwards from the change counter, getting more money, running to the nearest ATM to extract extra funds and so on and so on until the bank is empty. Most clubs make their ATMs inaccessible to Credit Cards, and some people even leave the premises to find an ATM that does accept their credit card only to return to lose more money. Poker Machines are blight on our society. I cannot understand how some people find it enjoyable to lose money.

There is also your mate in the pub. You know the one, you see him every Saturday afternoon. Drunk as a skunk and stone broke. He has been drinking since midday, and lost his money on the horses. So he comes over to you and snips for a loan. "I'll repay on Thursday when I get paid, just call in here, and I'll give it back to you". Then off he goes to the bar, buys another beer and heads straight to the TAB to continue to lose.

Neither a borrower nor a lender be.

No one ever approaches me for a loan, because they know I won't give them one. Plenty have asked, and eventually they get embarrassed enough about getting knocked back, and eventually stop asking me, and go off and harrass some other poor sucker. These blokes are parasites, avoid them, they will get the message soon enough, and when they do, you will embrace a good friendship with them. Allow them to use you, and they will take advatage of you all the time.

So, now you have your $100 to play with, you are not going to be bothered by others, and you are comfortable in the knowledge that if you can snag a collect from the $100, you can shout the wife or girlfriend Chinese for dinner.

There are two other basic rules to consider before you even start to work out what horse you are going to punt on.

Firstly, you must start with a specific bank. It may be $100 a week, or it may be $100 a month. But start with a specific amount, and use it only for punting and nothing else. I personally prefer to have an account with bookmakers or agenices, that way I know I am punting with my own money, and know exactly how much is in my bank at any time. You can throw $100 in the back of your wallet if you prefer, and use this only to punt with. I always find with this idea, you tend to spend it on other things if it is so readily accessible, or the missus finds it and buys a new set of towels with it! At least if the money is in an account with an agency, it is difficult to get out immediately, so you will tend to leave it there. And it is far easier to keep track of whether you are winning or losing, which brings us to point two.

Record Every Bet.

The reason for this is that you will know exactly to the cent whether you are winning or losing. This is important for a number of reasons. If you don't record every bet, how do you really know if you are winning or losing? You don't, you're guessing.

How often do you see people tell you how much they won last Saturday? Very often. And how often do they tell you when they lose? Almost never !! Do not be afraid to tell people you lost on the punt. Feel free to tell them about the wins, but never be ashamned of telling them you had a loss. Why? Because if you do admit to losing occasionally, you will have plenty of credibility. People get sick and tired of hearing about the wins you had, and not about the losses. It is a well known fact to everyone that you cannot win every time you have a bet. So keep stringent records, so you know at a glance where you are. Include in these records, every bet, how much you bet, where the horse ran, what it paid, what was the return, and whether you won or lost on each indiviual bet. Then have a running total to tell you your current profit or loss, what your winning strike rate is, and your average winning price. You know after every bet you have how you are travelling.

Have a look at our Results page, and use something similar if you are not sure what to do. It is simple to follow and if you have any questions, feel free to send us an email. You can go into as much detail as you like. Split the bets up into states, or tracks, distances, track conditions, whatever you feel comfortable with.

Personally I record every bet, and close off at the end of every month with a running total. At the end of the racing year, August to July, I tally up a total for that racing year, as a profit or loss. So if you have a losing month, your stats should be able to tell you in what area you are falling down, and where to improve to get back into profit. Alternatively, a good profitable month will emphasise in what area you are punting well in.

So, four simple rules to get you started before you even have a bet:-

Only bet what you can afford to lose

Neither a borrower nor a mender be

Use a specific bank to punt with

Keep stringent records of every bet

If you start off your punting with these four goals, you will enjoy your punting much more and you will feel comfortable that you are betting within your means and know exactly whether you are winning or losing.

Good luck to our members with the selection for today. If you have any questions or would like further input in regards to this article, please dont hesitate to contact us by email on profselections@austarnet.com.au or mobile number: 0439 540538

Good Luck and Profitable Punting!

Saturday 25 November 2006

2006-11-25T16:41:00.000+10:00

Professional Analytical Selections Services provided information on only three horses today for their members today. The three horses selected were:-

Sandown R1 No3 Tango's Amigo $1.80
Randwick R5 No3 Beauty Watch $2.20
Kembla R7 No2 Glenbawn Star $5.40

All three saluted to the excitement of all PASS subscribers.

There are plenty more winners running around tomorrow, and our members will be kept informed on how to find a few of them.

Congratulations to all our members who are certainly enjoying their racing experience.

If you would like to join in on all the enjoyment, please send us an email to profselections@austarnet.com.au or call or text us on 0439 540 538 to organise your membership.

Raheights

2006-11-24T08:13:00.000+10:00

Humblest apologies, I did Raheights a major injustice. I named her a gelding when in fact she is a 4yo mare. I do apologise to the connections.

Raheights showed she is a stayer with potential last night at Canterbury. Young Patrick Murphy rode her a treat, as we predicted, just off the speed. But as they straightened, he could not get a clear run, and looked in a little trouble. Murphy however did not panic, he bided his time until the gap appeared, and drove Raheights through for a narrow but convincing victory. I wouldn't get too carried away with the win, a she was a weighted certainty last night with Murphy's claim, but I am sure Guy Walter has a little more improvement in her. Races such as the Christmas Cup & the Summer Cup may not be beyond her.

Thank you to all those who are following our selections, and for the encouraging emails we have received. We have been able to provide a couple of winners, but from now on, our pre race selections will be restricted to our loyal subscribers. Membership will be limited, so odds of the winners are not affected.

If you wish to become a member either email us here on profselections@austarnet.com.au or call us on 0439 540 538. We look forward to providing all our members with plenty of winners so the enjoyment of punting on horse racing is maximised.

There will be no selection for today, we'll give everyone a chance to organise membership whilst we work hard on finding a few winners for the weekend.

Good luck, and profitable punting.

First Canterbury Night Meeting of the Season

2006-11-23T08:41:00.000+10:00

Always a most enjoyable evening at Canterbury Park on a Thursday night under the lights. Patrons are very close to the action and the crowds are usually comfortable. Hopefully the STC make a success of this season.

A very promising horse races tonight at Canterbury, but you will have to be extremely patient if you want to have a bet.

Canterbury R7 No6 Raheights

Raheights is a lightly raced 4yo gelding by Rahy in the Guy Walter stable. His form was only fair until he got to a distance that suited him. At his last two starts over 1600m he has absolutely donkey licked his opposition, showing acceleration not normally seen in a potential middle distance horse. The 1900m of tonights assignment will suit him down to the ground and drawn barrier 4 he should get a lovely in behind the speed. Apprentice Patrick Murphy has been on him in his last two wins, so he knows the horse well and always rides middle distance horses with patience. Don't be afraid to put money on his mounts, he will furnish into a top city jockey in years to come. Obviously Raheights is up a little in class tonight, however he is on the way up while most of his rivals have had plenty of chances already.

Patience and discipline will be required to wait until 10pm (DST) tonight to have a bet, But it will be worth the wait.

Good luck and profitable punting.

Ballarat Cup Day Summary

2006-11-22T20:39:00.000+10:00

Ballarat played true to form today and favoured on pace on fence runners the majority of the day.

Kitz Lane was most impressive. He will be placed in our Horse To Follow file as he is a potential Group winner. He is by Pentire and a distance of 2400m is right up his alley, so he will be even better in his second and third preparations. Keep following him

Count To Zero defied the normal bias at Ballarat, sat wide, came from well back and won as he liked. Robbie Griffiths has this horse firing and a win in town is not too far away.

Danny Brereton rode a terrific race to win the Cup on Rubijon. Gave the horse a beautiful run in transit, manouvered a passage through the field on straightening, giving Rubijon every opportunity to show his best, which he did. Congratualations to Danny, the best ride won the Cup.

At Hawkesbury today, they ran the prelude to their big Cup meeting in early December. The race was won by the Guy Walter trained Lantwin, who led all the way to win comfortably. Although looking impressive, I doubt Lantwin can win the Cup or the upcoming Villiers Stakes at Royal Randwick. He was getting pretty tired at the end of the 1400m today, and 1600m will be a big test at Hawkesbury, and even more so at Randwick. Friday Creek would give all those who started today a quick short back and sides, I feel sure.

Hope all our readers had a little something on Kitz Lane, and we finished on the right side of the leger at days end.

Ballarat Cup Day

2006-11-21T21:56:00.000+10:00

Not the sort of meeting we like to get too enthused at here at PASS. Very strong and even fields with lots of chances in each and every race. We mainly concern ourselves with good things. However as a free introductory offer we will let everyone know about one running around at Dowling Forest tomorrow.

Ballarat R2 No7 Kitz Lane

Kitz Lane is a 4yo gelding by Pentire who has been given plenty of time to mature. He has only had one start and ran a creditable 3rd at Kyneton in a 1200m maiden. Creditable because at the 250m mark, he was almost pushed through the running rail by another runner and severely checked. He recovered, and had the audacity to charge home strongly and finish 3rd. No doubt Kitz Lane will be more suited by journeys longer than the 1400m of todays event and whatever he does he will improve on. He is trained by Lee Freedman, and owned in the same interests as great gallopers Gurners Lane, Paris Lane & De Gaulle Lane and will have the services of Craig Newitt to guide him. Very tough maiden field, with $15,0000 prizemoney, so it is not an easy race to win. But Kitz Lane will accomodate himself well in this race, and is also one to place in your black book to follow in the future no matter how he performs.

Good luck, and profitable punting.

Welcome!

2006-11-21T20:17:00.000+10:00

Welcome to our blog that accompanies the professional analytical information service we provide.

Our aim is to assist everyone to enjoy the horse racing industry, and the best way to achieve that enjoyment is to be a winner. We will provide accurate information so our members are able to profit from punting on thoroughbred horse racing in Australia.

We will not make outrageous claims of long priced winners.

We will not make claims of extraordinary exotic dividends.

We will not use outrageous advertising promotions to entice members.

We will not select more than one horse in a race.

We will not attempt to select the winner of every race.

What we will do, is provide to our members an analytical appraisal of selected races on a daily basis, that will help those members profit from punting. We will also provide regular articles so our members adopt the correct approach to their punting.

Over an 18 month period, our selections appeared on the Massie Lodge web site under Hot Tips. In this time the winning strike rate was well over 50% and the average winning price over $2.50. The actual profit on a level stake was over 11%. All simple facts, and this service was provided free to anyone who read the web site.

We look forward to plenty more winners for our members and plenty of profit in the long term.